COMMUNITY SECURITY TOOLKIT: SPACE ANALYSIS
Posted by Sam Culper / Mike Shelby | Sep 25, 2019 | Intelligence, Sam Culper | 3  |     
During my last tour in Afghanistan, Palantir was quickly becoming the sweetheart analysis software suite of the Army and
Marine Corps. Before I deployed, I sat through a class o ered by the company, and immediately recognized that it’s great
software. Intelligently designed, easy to use, top notch functionality, and categorization options allow an end-user to drill
down and really dissect the adversary and surrounding events. It is, however, only as powerful as the end-user allows it to
be.
By the time I left the Intelligence Community, I had become disillusioned with the state of the average analyst (though not
every analyst) and much of leadership which was more interested in developing the latest technology instead developing the
minds of their analysts.
Intelligence analysis is, and likely will be for decades to come, 80% investigation and 20% technology; but tools like Palantir
are trying to invert that ratio. Without a highly inquisitive mind motivated to nd the solutions to unanswered or seemingly
unanswerable questions, and the proper analytical methods to pick apart your adversary, your analysis of information of
intelligence value will be found wanting. Still, for all the faults of technology, Palantir made SPACE analysis way easier.
SPACE is an acronym that every good analyst should use, especially where it concerns community security. Its roots are in
our operational security (OPSEC) manual, and when the adversary doesn’t care enough to implement SPACE into his security
considerations, it’s our job as intelligence analysts to exploit their mistakes. (That road goes both ways, by the way.)
One of the things an analyst should consider of an adversary are his vulnerabilities, which makes OPSEC so important to both
parties. In SPACE, we’re presented with invisible vulnerabilities: indicators that aren’t often considered and don’t appear to be
vulnerabilities at face value, but are useful nonetheless when applied to the enemy’s operating picture.
Keep SPACE in mind when inventorying your own security measures. It may be the case that the analyst assigned to you fails
to consider them. Then again, maybe he doesn’t. And remember: each piece of information from the SPACE method is
cumulative; each on its own isn’t as powerful as when they are all taken into consideration.
Signature
Pro le
Associations
Contrast
Exposure
Signature
Signatures are identi able, unique, and stable to an individual or group of individuals. For instance, a signature is an
encrypted or signed email, or a message from a speci c phone or email address, or a semantic tell – the way we speak or
write, for instance.
These are pieces of a puzzle that can be collected and analyzed to form a better understanding our adversaries (or of
ourselves). A signature is something standardized (or roughly standardized) in the way you operate that may identify you as
being separate from someone else, much like a signature recipe is to a chef. Serial killers have signatures. Gangs and gang
members have signatures. You will never mistake the sound of a monster truck for that of a Toyota Prius, or a dog’s bark for
a cat’s meow. Observed over time, the way you communicate likely presents a signature. A signature may not always be
deliberate, but it’s a calling card that helps an analyst identify a speci c, and perhaps anonymous, individual.
One practical way to identify and record signatures is to look for gang-related tagging and gra ti in an area. Take a photo of
the tag in or around your community, and begin a collection. We can use these photos to identify gangs that may be present
in the area, as well as establish the boundaries of the gang activity. Analyzing the locations of a particular gang’s gra ti or
tagging could help us understand their area of operations or “turf”.
Pro le
Signatures may develop into a pattern of indicators called a pro le. In Afghanistan, a convoy of jingle trucks led and followed
by a couple gun trucks ts the pro le of a supply convoy. (A jingle truck is an ornately decorated Afghan commerce carrier.) No
one would mistake this pro le for that of a U.S. security patrol or raid. In each case, the jingle truck di erentiates itself from
others by its signature, the same as a gun truck would. You’d never mistake a jingle truck for a gun truck; but, added
together, we get the supply convoy pro le.
Another example would be a customer wearing a Dodge baseball cap in a gas station purchasing $150 of diesel fuel. If forced
to guess, would you conclude that he drives a 3/4-ton Dodge pickup or a Toyota Prius? If you stopped at a red light behind a
camou age-painted Ford Ranger with two Browning stickers and a Size Matters deer antler decal, would you expect the
driver to be wearing an Warren 2020 t-shirt and a drinking a Starbucks iced frappachino? No, because his signatures t a
speci c pro le.
When presented with two separate but anonymous individuals — for instance, two di erent gra ti “artists” who belong to
the same gang but have distinct characteristics, or signatures, to their tags — our rst step towards identi cation is to
develop a pro le for each of the gang members. If each of the tags has its own signatures, what can they tell us about ganga liation? Are they the same or di erent gangs? Once we associate a tag with a speci c gang, then we can get a much better
idea as to the threat level the gang poses to our community.
Associations
Associations help adversaries to interpret actions. Good analysis is about identifying indicators and patterns in order to
determine potential courses of action (future events). We ask ourselves, is one event associated to another and, if so, what does
that tell us about the two events? These events could be phone calls, emails, travel patterns – all indicators of activities –
associated with speci c events.
We might identify a pattern of communication before an event, and therefore associate the two. In Iraq, perhaps it’s the case
that when one speci c phone number calls another speci c phone number, there’s a sectarian bombing against the civilian
populace the next day, but only when those two speci c numbers communicate. That communication is an indicator and we
form associations between the phone call and the bombing. The next time we see those two phones light up, maybe we
increase security, harden our xed targets, or kill/capture our target.
So how can we develop associations starting with gang tags? In the Signatures paragraph, I talked about mapping gang tags
to get a general idea of the gang’s area of operations. As long as we have the members of our community documenting and
reporting the locations of these tags, then we should also be speaking with them about who’s responsible for the tagging and
about gang membership in the community. If we can develop streams of reporting, then we can begin associating tags to
individuals, individuals to gangs, and both individuals and gangs to speci c activities. Identifying these previously unknown or
anonymous gang members is the absolute rst step in targeting them or their activities.
Contrast
Just like the contrast on our televisions and computer screens, which ranges from black to white, good analysts observe
contrasts in the battlespace, or for an individual or organization. An example of contrast for an individual is the route to and
from work. If our subject takes the same route every day, but today makes a change by turning onto a di erent road, then
that’s a new contrast. If our subject calls his wife every day after work, but stops making the phone call, then we’ve just
identi ed a new contrast. Those actions beg the question, “Why the change?” These contrasts are red ags for analysts, and
good analysts begin looking for the reason for the change in baseline activity. These deviations should cause us to ask
questions and identify the reasons why there was a change in expected behaviors or patterns.
So what are the expected communications, actions, battle rhythms, or operational tempos from a pro le we’ve developed?
Let’s start by identifying the baseline activities of the gang members (or drug addicts or burglars, etc.) in our community.
How would we describe their baseline behaviors and crimes and activities we expect from them, and with what frequency do
those crimes and activities occur? Once we’ve answered these questions, then we can begin looking for patterns that don’t
match the baseline and identify why there are changes.
Exposure
Exposure consists of three factors: duration, repetition, and timing. Phone calls placed at random iterations, each lasting for
two hours, is an example of duration exposure. The same is said for phone calls that last for ten seconds. The duration of
the phone call is potentially important to us — what conclusions could we draw based on the length of the call?
Next, repetition exposure is observed when a phone call occurs repeatedly. That repetition means something and could
give us clues as to patterns and associations. Finally, those phone calls that occur at 7pm local time are an example of
timing exposure. Why always 7pm? — that’s a question that deserves some attention.
What we’re developing with these three types of exposure is what’s called a pattern of life. These factors of time help us form
associations, perhaps spatial and temporal, so we can begin identifying patterns in an individual or organization’s daily
activities. And once we observe these set patterns, they can be exploited, especially if these patterns lead to predictive
intelligence — that is, being able to predict where an individual will be Wednesday afternoon based on the patterns he’s
previously exhibited.
Back to our gang scenario, how can we identify exposure with gang activity? If there’s a rash of robberies over the period of
two weeks, and then zero robberies for a week, and then another rash of robberies that last two weeks, based on the
patterns of duration, when will the next robberies begin and end? Identifying patterns in duration can help us understand
how the adversary operates, and that’s a critical step in stopping them.
For repetition, we can nd associations in time and date of gang activities. Do gang activities occur every Tuesday, or every 14
days, for example? Just like duration, repetition allows us to develop predictive intelligence, which greatly aids in the targeting
process. The same is said for timing exposure — if these robberies are occurring sporadically or with no identi able
frequency, are there any patterns in the timing of robberies?
Conclusion
Although we just covered ve characteristics of activities that will help us to build a pattern of life for our adversaries, keep in
mind that your adversaries may be building a pattern of life for you.
Do a SPACE Analysis on yourself and identify the patterns you set and how they could be exploited. Humans are creatures of
habit, so be sure to identify the habits or patterns you exhibit.
SPACE Analysis can be used to nd patterns and associations for a multitude of things, not just gang activities. Put it in your
analytic toolbox and apply it to real world situations that a ect your community.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Sam Culper / Mike Shelby
Samuel Culper / Mike Shelby is a former Intelligence NCO and intelligence contractor. A veteran of Iraq
and Afghanistan, he now researches intelligence and con ict at Forward Observer and teaches at Gray
Zone Activity. You can nd more of his work at https://www.forwardobserver.com and
https://www.grayzoneactivity.com.
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3 COMMENTS
vyt1az on September 25, 2019 at 23:26
Great article To the point at the top about tech like Palantir they’re why I try to avoid certain behaviors
Great article. To the point at the top about tech like Palantir,they re why I try to avoid certain behaviors
and patterns. Automation makes people mentally lazy and sloppy. When algos don’t t a particular
model or pattern, the dum dums in the growing digital “intelligence” world are going to mis-categorize
innocent people instead of using critical thinking.
With that being said, it would be nice to have partially automated data collection for those of us without
the Palantir-level budget. Particularly considering how much time it can take to collect good data on this
kind of stu . I know there are things like crime maps where you can get some incomplete data for a local
area.
I also have to say, it’s nice seeing Sam posting here. His recent YouTube videos are also really well done
and worth a re-post over here.
Greg on September 25, 2019 at 19:29
Excellent!
Reading through that, it’s easy to see how High Tech and our Government are using tose very techniques
against this population. Sometimes together…
Matt in Oklahoma on September 25, 2019 at 10:55
Now if only you can make my wife understand how/why I think like this and that I can’t just shut it o
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