Chapter 5 5.12 CALCULATING AND INTERPRETING RISK RATIOS. Refer to the financial statement data for Hasbro in Problem 4.23 in Chapter 4. Exhibit 5.15 presents risk ratios for Hasbro for Year 2 and Year 3. EXHIBIT 5.15 Risk Ratios for Hasbro (Problem 5.12) Revenues to Cash Ratio Days Revenues Held in Cash Current Ratio Quick Ratio Operating Cash Flow to Average Current Liabilities Ratio Days Accounts Receivable Days Inventory Days Accounts Payable Net Days Working Capital Liabilities to Assets Ratio Liabilities to Shareholders’ Equity Ratio Long-Term Debt to Long-Term Capital Ratio Long-Term Debt to Shareholders’ Equity Ratio Operating Cash Flow to Total Liabilities Ratio Interest Coverage Ratio Year 4 4.8 76 1.5 1.1 0.344 72 53 47 78 0.499 0.976 0.156 0.185 0.213 9.1 A. Calculate the amounts of these ratios for Year 4. 1.Revenues to Cash Ratio = ( 2998/((521+725)/2) = 4.8 time 2.Days Revenues Held in Cash = 365/4.8 = 76 days 3.Current Ratio = 1718 / 1149 = 5.1 : 1 4.Quick Ratio = (275+579)/1149 = 1.1 :1 5.Operating Cash Flow to Average Current Liabilities Ratio = 358/(930+1149) = 0.344 or 34.4% 6.Days Accounts Receivable = 2998/((607+579)/2) = 5.1 time 365/5.1=72 days 7.Days Inventory = 1252/((169+195)/2) = 6.9 times 365/6.9=53 days 8.Days Accounts Payable = (1252+195-169)/((159+168)/2) = 7.8 x 365/7.8= 47 days 9.Net Days Working Capital = 72+53-47 = 78 days 10.Liabilities to Assets Ratio = 1601/3241=0.494 or 49.4% 11.Liabilities to Shareholders’ Equity Ratio = 1601/1640 = 0.976 or 97.6% 12.Long-Term Debt to Long-Term Capital Ratio = 303/(303+1640) = 0.156 or 15.6 % 13Long-Term Debt to Shareholders’ Equity Ratio = 303/1640 = 0.185 or 18.5% 14.Operating Cash Flow to Total Liabilities Ratio = 358/((1758 +1601)/2) = 0.213 or 21.3% 15.Interest Coverage Ratio = (196+32+64)/32 9.1 times Page 1 of 14 Year 3 6.2 59 1.6 1.2 0.479 68 51 47 72 0.556 1.251 0.328 0.489 0.245 5.6 Year 2 7.7 47 1.5 1.1 0.548 73 68 49 91 0.621 1.639 0.418 0.720 0.238 2.3 B. Assess the changes in the short-term liquidity risk of Hasbro between Year 2 and Year 4 and the level of that risk at the end of Year 4. 1.Revenues to Cash Ratio Risk decrease 7.7 to 4.8 2.Days Revenues Held in Cash Co. hold cash for more 3+4 . Current Ratio & Quick Ratio There is no significant difference , but in term of risk . the company is able to pay more than one ) short-term risk will be low 5. Operating Cash Flow to Average Current Liabilities Ratio The ratio decreased. Because of a decrease in cash flow. It mean more risk current asset < current liability ( 6. Days Accounts Receivable Constant 7. Days Inventory Constant All liquidity suggests that the short term debt ability risk is low except for year 4 for the ratio operating cash to current liabilities it’s below 40% Company is secure C. Assess the changes in the long-term solvency risk of Hasbro between Year 2 and Year 4 and the level of that risk at the end of Year 4. 10. Liabilities to Assets Ratio Decrease risk 11.Liabilities to Shareholders’ Equity Ratio Decrease risk 12.Long-Term Debt to Long-Term Capital Ratio The risk is low 13.Long-Term Debt to Shareholders’ Equity Ratio Is reduced in risk 14.Operating Cash Flow to Total Liabilities Ratio 20% reacquired rate Year 2 0.238 more than 20% Year 3 0.245 more than 20% Year 4 0.21 more than 20% So, healthy situation 15.Interest Coverage Ratio Can be coved 9.1 time in year 4 , this indicates that company is generating The long term solvency risk is low has decreased significantly during the 3 year period. Debt level decline as the Co. has redeemed debt interest coverage ratio in year 4 increase to a very healthy level because of reduction in borrowing and increase in net income Page 2 of 14 5.14 INTERPRETING RISK RATIOS. Refer to the profitability ratios of CocaCola in Problem 4.25 in Chapter 4. Exhibit 5.17 presents risk ratios for Coca-Cola for 2006- 2008. As we did within the chapter for PepsiCo, we utilize Coca-Cola’s footnote disclosures to extract the amount of trade accounts payable included within the line item accounts payable and accrued expenses. EXHIBIT 5.17 Risk Ratios for Coca-Cola 2008 6.9 53 0.9 0.6 0.578 37 71 44 64 0.495 0.979 0.120 0.136 0.364 17.0 Revenues to Cash Ratio Days Revenues Held in Cash Current Ratio Quick Ratio Operating Cash Flow to Average Current Liabilities Ratio Days Accounts Receivable Days Inventory Days Accounts Payable Net Days Working Capital Liabilities to Assets Ratio Liabilities to Shareholders’ Equity Ratio Long-Term Debt to Long-Term Capital Ratio Long-Term Debt to Shareholders’ Equity Ratio Operating Cash Flow to Total Liabilities Ratio Interest Coverage Ratio 2007 8.4 44 0.9 0.6 0.647 37 68 38 67 0.497 0.990 0.131 0.151 0.414 17.3 2006 6.5 56 0.9 0.6 0.636 37 68 40 65 0.435 0.771 0.072 0.078 0.456 29.9 A. Assess the changes in the short-term liquidity risk of Coca-Cola between 2006 and 2008. Coca Cola’s short – term liquidity risk is now and did not changed significantly during the three – year period. It current ratio is just below I , and its quick ratio is below 0.6 but has remained steady over the past three years. The operating cash flow to current liabilities ratio been decreasing , but it remain above the desired level of 40%. This is not too worrisome given that the firm has a demonstrated ability to sell products for considerably more than their book value . b. Assess the changes in the long-term solvency risk of Coca-Cola between 2006 and 2008. Coca Cola’s long – term solvency risk decreased during the three – year period. Its debt ratio generally declined particularly its long – term debt ratio. Operating cash flow to total liabilities and interest coverage ratio decreased , but are still above a desired level due to Coca Cola’s profitability. The level of long – term solvency risk is still low . c. Compare the short-term liquidity ratios of Coca-Cola with those of PepsiCo discussed in the chapter. Which firm appears to have more short-term liquidity risk? Explain. Revenues to Cash Ratio 29.1 Days Revenues Held in Cash Current Ratio Quick Ratio Operating Cash Flow to Average Current Liabilities Ratio Days Accounts Receivable Days Inventory Days Accounts Payable Net Days Working Capital 17.5 1.2 0.8 0.850 38 43 48 34 Coca Cola’s appears to have slightly more short-term risk compared to pepsi co. , but neither company has much risk in this regard . Page 3 of 14 D. Compare the long-term solvency ratios of Coca-Cola with those of PepsiCo discussed in the chapter. Which firm appears to have more long-term solvency risk? Explain. Liabilities to Assets Ratio 0.664 Liabilities to Shareholders’ Equity Ratio 1.973 Long-Term Debt to Long-Term Capital Ratio 0.394 Long-Term Debt to Shareholders’ Equity Ratio 0.649 Operating Cash Flow to Total Liabilities Ratio 0.399 Interest Coverage Ratio 22.3 Neither pepsi co. nor Coca Cola’s displays much long-term solvency risk. However , long-term solvency risk than Coca Cola due primarily to higher proportions of long-term debt. Page 4 of 14 5.15 COMPUTING AND INTERPRETING RISK AND BANKRUPTCY PREDICTION RATIOS FOR A FIRM THAT DECLARED BANKRUPTCY. Delta Air Lines is one of the largest airlines in the United States. It has operated on the verge of bankruptcy for several years. Exhibit 5.18 presents selected financial data for Delta Air Lines for each of the five years ending December 31, 2000, to December 31, 2004. Delta Air Lines filed for bankruptcy on September 14, 2005. We recommend that you create an Excel spreadsheet to compute the values of the ratios and the Altman’s Z-score in Parts a and b, respectively EXHIBIT 5.18 Financial Data for Delta Air Lines (amounts in millions except per share amounts) Year Ended December 31: 2004 2003 2002 Sales $15,002 $14,087 $13,866 Net Income (Loss) before Interest and Taxes $ (3,168) $ (432) $ (1,337) Interest Expense $ 824 $ 757 $ 665 Net Income (Loss) $(5,198) $ (773) $ (1,272) Current Assets $ 3,606 $ 4,550 $ 3,902 Total Assets $21,801 $25,939 $24,720 Current Liabilities $ 5,941 $ 6,157 $ 6,455 Long-Term Debt $12,507 $11,040 $ 9,576 Total Liabilities $27,320 $26,323 $23,563 Retained Earnings (Deficit) $ (4,373) $ 844 $ 1,639 Shareholders’ Equity $ (5,519) $ (384) $ 1,157 Cash Flow Provided by Operations $ (1,123) $ 142 $ 225 Common Shares Outstanding 139.8 123.5 123.4 Market Price per Share $ 7.48 $ 11.81 $ 12.10 2001 $13,879 $(1,365) $ 499 $(1,216) $ 3,567 $23,605 $ 6,403 $ 7,781 $19,581 $ 2,930 $ 4,024 $ 236 123.2 $ 29.26 2000 $15,657 $ 1,829 $ 380 $ 828 $ 3,205 $21,931 $ 5,245 $ 5,797 $16,354 $ 4,176 $ 5,577 $ 2,898 123.0 $ 50.18 2001 0.56 0.041 0.530 0.659 0.013 ــــــ 2000 0.61 ــــــ 0.746 0.510 ــــــ 4.8 time a. Compute the value of each the following risk ratios. (1) Current Ratio (at the end of 2000–2004) (2) Operating Cash Flow to Current Liabilities Ratio (for 2001–2004) (3) Liabilities to Assets Ratio (at the end of 2000–2004) (4) Long-Term Debt to Long-Term Capital Ratio (at the end of 2000–2004) (5) Operating Cash Flow to Total Liabilities Ratio (for 2001–2004) (6) Interest Coverage Ratio (for 2000–2004) Current Ratio Operating Cash Flow to Current Liabilities Ratio Liabilities to Assets Ratio Long-Term Debt to Long-Term Capital Ratio Operating Cash Flow to Total Liabilities Ratio Interest Coverage Ratio 2004 0.61 : 1 (0.168) 1.253 1.79 (0.042) ــــــ Interest Coverage Ratio 2004 – 2001 net was negative so interest coverage ratio can’t cover Page 5 of 14 2003 0.74 0.023 1.015 1.36 0.006 ــــــ 2002 0.60 0.035 0.953 0.892 0.010 ــــــ STARBUCKS Exhibit presents risk ratios for Starbucks for 2006 and 2007. Exhibits and in Chapter 1 present the financial statements for Starbucks. Risk Ratios for Starbucks (Integrative Case 5.1) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Revenues to Cash Ratio Days Revenues Held in Cash Current Ratio Quick Ratio Operating Cash Flow to Average Current Liabilities Ratio Days Accounts Receivable Days Inventory Days Accounts Payable Net Days Working Capital Liabilities to Assets Ratio Liabilities to Shareholders’ Equity Ratio Long-Term Debt to Long-Term Capital Ratio Long-Term Debt to Shareholders’ Equity Ratio Operating Cash Flow to Average Total Liabilities Ratio Interest Coverage Ratio 2008 37.7 10 days 0.8 0.3 0.579 70 days 54 days 28 days 96 days 0.561 1.244 0.181 0.221 0.403 9.6 2007 31.7 11.5 0.79 0.34 65.1% 66 61 33 94 0.573 1.340 0.194 0.241 0.506 28.7 2006 32.0 11.4 0.79 0.35 71.6% 63 68 31 100 0.497 0.987 0.001 0.001 0.625 106.8 Required a. Compute the values of each of the ratios in Exhibit 5.26 for Starbucks for 2008. Starbucks had 735.5 million common shares outstanding at the end of 2008, and the market price per share was $14.17. For days accounts receivable, use only specialty revenues in your calculations, because accounts receivable are primarily related to licensing and food service operations, not the retail operations. Use cost of sales, including occupancy costs, in the numerator of the GMI in the Beneish earnings manipulation model. b. Interpret the changes in Starbucks risk ratios during the three-year period, indicating areas of concern. Page 6 of 14 A) Page 7 of 14 Page 8 of 14 B) Short-term solvency: From the above calculations, it is clear that there is a increase in short-term solvency risk, the current ratio of the company fell below 1.0 and the quick ratio will be above 0.30 in 2008. Both these ratios have decreased in the three year period of time. The same downward trend is noticed in operating cash flow to current liabilities. Similarly, the days of accounts payable has decreased which may be a reason for the decrease in the cash balance. There is a considerable decrease in the marketable securities which is declining the short-term liquidity. Long-term solvency: The total liabilities have also increased during the given three year period of time and also the long-term debt ratio has also increased. There is increase in the current liabilities. There is a drastic decrease in the interest coverage ratio and operating cash flow to total liabilities ratio. They are still in the healthy level. Company started to carry the long-term debt in 2007.These debt do not include those amount pertains to the operating leases. If these expenses are included the long-term debt will increase further. Page 9 of 14 Chapter 6 Page 10 of 14 Chapter 12 2011 2010 100.2 % 99.8% This firm is having profit problem Expenses have increased faster than revenue B 76.7% 75% This frim is using more debt in absolute terms and in relation to operating property C 170.96% 171.67% The ratio remained constant $0.085 D 8.1 8.5 per mile The firm is generating more revenue per passenger mile , but it suffering from a serious decline in passenger miles . A Page 11 of 14 A) 1 2 3 4 2011 2010 78.72% 79.08% 38.5% 39.47% 7.18% 6.93% 27.71% 27.66% 2009 80.08% 40.83% 6.39% 27.06% 1. 2. 3. 4. The operating ratio decrease , indicating improved efficiency . Indicating less risk because a lower percentage of fund were supplied by funded debt The ratio increased indicating improved profitability Increased slightly , indicating improved profitability B) C) Cash flow per share has increased much more than EPS . This would be considered to be positive . Page 12 of 14 A. 5 B. 3 C.4 D.3 E.5 F.4 Page 13 of 14 A) 1 2 3 4 5 6 2011 85 % 5.10 % 4.17 x 7% 12.75 x 61.90 % 2010 83 % 4.89 % 3.95 x 6.50 % 12.06 x 61.18 % 2009 82.69 % 4.70 % 3.64 x 6% 12.13 x 59.43 % B) 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. It has increased , indicating that management has improved in putting bank asset to work . The ratio has increased , indicating improvement in profitability The ratio has increased , indicating an improved level of protection of loans The ratio has increased , indicating an improved cushion against the risk of using debt and leverage Increase , indicating increased risk Increase , indicating a prospect of higher return to shareholders Page 14 of 14