HIV POLICY RESEARCH
NETWORK SYMPOSIUM
O ’ N EI LL I N S TI TU TE F O R N ATI O NA L A N D G LO BA L H EA LTH LAW
GEOR GETOWN U N IV ER S ITY LAW C EN TER
TH E I M PA C T O F H I V P O LI C I ES O N H I V I N F EC TI O NS
TS VA K I J ETI N A J U LI ET
M A R E M ATTH EW
OUTLINE
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INTRODUCTION
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OBJECTIVES
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THEORY
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METHODOLOGY
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RESULTS
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CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS
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REFERENCES
INTRODUCTION
A policy is a guiding principle that sets the tone and outlines the actions required to address a
specific issue World Health Organization (2005).
 The actual formulation of policy involves the identification and analysis of a range of actions
that respond to these concerns. Each possible solution is assessed against a number of factors
such аs probable effectiveness, potential cost, resources required for implementation, political
context and community support.
HIV Policy provides a framework to support National Society implementation according to local
needs and feasibility. The policy addresses the strong recommitment of the International
Federation to continuing and scaling-up prevention, destigmatization, advocacy and provision of
health care and other services related to HIV/AIDS, in particular to vulnerable populations
INTRODUCTION
RESEARCH PROBLEM
 An aggressive global response, particularly over the past ten years, has finally pushed the HIV
epidemic into decline Health Policy Project (2014). HIV-related science has advanced swiftly, but
some countries have realized more remarkable progress than others on HIV/AIDS.
 While the epidemic is far from over, the suitable investments now could bring the goal of a
HIV- free generation within reach for the first time in three decades. To address this issue requires
good policies and a favorable policy environment.
 Accordingly, recently, there have been increased efforts to understanding HIV policies, such as
the Health Policy Lab, research on the HIV work policy (ILO Programme on HIV/AIDS and the
world of work
INTRODUCTION
 The research aims to explore the impact of HIV policy choice on HIV infection rates.
 More specifically, it will investigate on the impact factor of each HIV policy on HIV infection
rates.
 The research will advance the frontiers of health research, solve global challenges (by
impacting on influencing HIV policy adoption ), and contribute to social development goals,
particularly goal number 3: Good health and well-being
OBJECTIVES
 To understand and explain how the HIV policies affect HIV infection
 To measure relationships between policies
HIV FACTS
METHODOLOGY
To measure impact of each policy
◦ Build and compare machine learning regression models:
◦ Linear Regression
◦ Random Forest Regression
◦ Decision Tree Regression
◦ Get feature importance per each policy
 To measure relationships
◦ Correlation analysis
 Datasets
◦ Country , Policy / Indicator, HIV new cases (incidents) – 2017,[Source – HIV Policy Lab, World Data]
RESULTS
HIV POLICY LAB DATA
HIV NEW CASES (INCIDENTS) DATA
RESULTS
MANIPULATED DATA
RESULTS
CORRELATION ANALYSIS
RESULTS
MODELS & MODEL EVALUATIONS
 Regression Model R square score -1.0
Decision Tree R square score – 1.0
Random Forest R square score – 0.9813
RESULTS
MODELS & FEATURE IMPORTANCE
 3. CT2 –Same day treatment
22. HS3i – Universal Health Coverage
27. HS5 –Access to medicine
29. HS5ii – Access to medicine (Use)
41. S1i- Same sex-sex non criminalization
FEATURE IMPORTANCE
REGRESSION MODEL
DECISION REGRESSION TREE
RANDOM FOREST REGRESSION
CONCLUSION &
RECOMMENDENDATIONS
 HIV POLICIES GREATLY IMPACT ON HIV NEW CASES
 TO IMPACT ON NEW HIV INFECTION EMPHASIS SHOULD BE MADE ON THESE
POLICIES (3. CT2 –Same day treatment, 22. HS3i – Universal Health Coverage, 27. HS5 –
Access to medicine, 29. HS5ii – Access to medicine (Use), 41. S1i - Same sex-sex non
criminalization)
 RECOMMEND INSTRUMENTS TO BE SET TO INCREASE AWARENESS ON THE
IMPACT OF HIV POLICY ADOPTION ON HIV NEW CASES