Cryptocurrency Market Analysis
27/09/2021
Technical analysis FUD
Technical analysis has been used many times to spread unnecessary
FUD with very bad/improper use of technical analysis. This comes from
people that just want their YouTube clicks but also random tweets from
credited traders/investors and of course Instagram posts. This time we
are seeing something about a black swan event.
A black swan event (according to google and numerous other sources) is
an event that no one saw coming, like the huge drop we saw after the
$65k top. People might’ve predicted the bottom of the drop, but not at
this speed and this portion. And according to the definition, it's
unpredictable. So that means that the random guy on Instagram or
Twitter will also not be able to predict it, it's an unpredictable event with a
lot of fear, loss and confusion.
Saying that there’s a 90, 80 or 70% chance of it happening is straight-up
bullsh**t, you can’t predict it.
Of course, there is still a good chance that we might see a liquidation
event or maybe even a black swan event. But these things are not
predictable! But now there is a bigger chance since everyone is
screaming it.
A quick explanation of what we can expect from a black swan event
(differentiates per situation, since a black swan could be any
unexplainable event):
- Big and fast drop, we might first see a sell-off before we see a big
liquidation event
- Extreme volatility in the entire market
- Fear and FUD spreading around like wild-fire
- Panic sellers
- Lots of emotion in the market
- Nobody actually knows what's happening in detail
Lot’s of retracement rejections (bearish sign)
One big bearish sign is flashing right now, retracement rejections. As I’ve
said many times, the .618, .702 and .786 are rejections zones and are
zones where you don’t want to see a rejection forming usually. However,
right now that’s exactly what we are seeing. Continuous retracement
rejections. Only when we break out of it we can expect any continuation
back up.
This of course doesn’t mean we can’t see new highs this year anymore,
but it is something to keep in mind.
Total altcoin marketcap
On the other hand, we have a beautiful chart on the altcoin side. We are
seeing a rejection from the ath to a very important support, the $1T area.
Generally speaking, when seeing this chart I would immediately say that
we can expect some consolidation before bouncing to new highs.
However, we first really need some strength from Bitcoin first.
(Sorry for the messy chart)