Quick disclaimer:
I am not a good designer, I tried my best
I had put together 3 exec summaries a month ago at my job,
and feel a little burnt out from stock photos.
And it's the holiday season, so, while all of the data, analysis,
insight & reflections are as serious and real as it gets, I
exchanged the places that had stock photos with something I
wish every presentation had...
December 2021
RJF Cycling Experts &
More
A Retrospective
An analysis of the past 8 quarters, at the globally
recognized cycling company: RJFCE
by Rob Finn, on behalf of RJF Cycling Experts & MOre
Bo
Foster dog, 2017
CONTENTS
Order
Financials & Market Performance - Year 1 & Year 2
Branding
Pricing
Advertising
Sales
Where are we now? - Good, Bad & More Bad, Q1 to
now
Q8
Takeaways
Reflection & Advice for next CEO
Olivia
Family dog, 2019
Raw Data/Appendix
FINANCIAL & MARKET
01
WHILE THE “ROLLERCOASTER” UP
AND DOWN ACROSS THE 8
QUARTERS MAY SEEM RANDOM, OR
ERRATIC, I BELIEVE THE EXPLANATION
IS FAIRLY SIMPLE: IN Q1/Q2 (AS THE
DOCUMENTATION SAYS), YOU’RE
MOSTLY SETTING UP THE BASICS THE AVAILABILITY OF OPTIONS IS
NOT YET THAT COMPLEX, AND
WHAT’S MOST IMPORTANT IS
DETERMINING WHAT’S NEXT.
02
bingo
family dog
caleb
Family dog
Growth Rate, Ads & Expenses
BETWEEN Q2 AND Q4, I HAD (WHAT I
THOUGHT) WAS TREMENDOUS
SUCCESS - NEARLY 50% OF THE
MARKET IN Q4, A COMMANDING
MARKET SHARE IN 4 OUT OF THE 5
CYCLE TYPES (AND, ON THE PRIORITY
LIST, WORK WAS #5), AND
ESSENTIALLY, EVERY GRAPH LOOKED
THE WAY ONE WOULD WANT IT TO UP AND TO THE RIGHT. STEADY
OPERATING PROFIT, AND WHILE COST
caleb
OF GOODS SPIKED, EVERYTHING ELSE
CAUGHT
UP.OF PROBLEMS
Family
dog Today
FINANCIAL & MARKET
03
04
Looking at those graphs in Q4, I essentially thought “Well, if I”m doing this well with minimal advertising,
focusing on just 3 types of bikes, I’ll just become the vast majority market share owner for the 3 types of
bikes I care about - my competitors can have Speed and Mountain bikes - not what we’re about! The
numbers speak for themselves up to Q7 - not a lot of smart investing, or investing of any kind (my hope
was to push through with as little spent as possible, keep profit margins up that way).
Between Q4 and the end of Q7, my market share plummeted to around 10%; my overall segment of the
market did not grow evenly against my competitors; net profit for the company went to nearly $1 million
in the red; market performance was cut to 1/5th - basically, everything was bad, and the reason?
Expecting the same strategy will work, even when competitors are pouring money into ads (online, in
person, globally) & investing in upgrades for their main line of bikes.
SO, IN SHORT:
Q1 & Q2 - JUST GETTING STARTTED, NOT MUCH TO GLEAN
Q3 & Q4 - NEARLY 50% MARKET SHARE ON ALL BIKES, NEARLY NO ADS,
MINIMAL CASH SPENT - LET'S RIDE THIS OUT!
Q4 TO Q7 - DROPPED TO JUST OVER 10% MARKET SHARE, OVER $1
MILLION IN THE RED
(UNTIL Q8 - MORE INFO ON
LATER SLIDE)
Revenue, Profit &
GAAP Data
BRAND
A Huffy Wannabe?
We went with the name “RJF Cycling Experts” vs. a made
up name, as my thought process was “this company will
become big enough that RJF will be ubiquitous with
cycling, but we’ll have an edge by making it clear from the
beginning.
This left some creative opportunities for the bikes
themselves to be named, “Lifecycle” was intended to be
as all encompassing as possible - all 5 types, all types of
cyclists.
(UNTIL Q8 BUT WE'LL GET TO IT)
Day 1: RJF = Best for Kid's!
Logo and color were pre-created - simple once again. When we
first began, I thought that the logo was going to play a much more
significant role (as in designs, wraps on the bike etc.)
Logo?
Originally, I planned to gain as much of the target market for Kid’s
bikes as possible, and sort of do the best we could we with the
remaining types. Only 3 designs to start - Kids, Recreation and
Mountain.
Update & Add 1` - "Lifecycle 2"
the idea, like most of my competitors, was to regularly
update/add new features to my existing line of bikes, and
change the “Lifecycle Kids” to the “Lifecycle Kids 2” etc.
GINGER
FAMILY DOG, 2012
PRICING
Large Price Tags, Larger Rebates
This was yet another naive move on my part; I didn’t
spend a ton of time looking at the prices of
competitors bikes.
I had a list of prices, and would jack up my prices to
be 200 or 300 more than theirs, then include a
rebate for 200 or 300, essentially matching their
price.
Rebates Break Even, & Full Price? We win
My hope was that to the money conscious, we’d appear
even with the 2nd most expensive, and for the “high end”
buyer, they wouldn’t make the effort to go and get the
rebate.
(This was especially true with a Q6 experiment with a
high end bike with every single feature available, and a
much higher price tag. It did not work!)
More Stores, More Salespeople, More Displays = More Sales, right?
By avoiding spending money on ads & R+D, I thought the best move would be to rapidly expand - in Q4, I
purchased ever available store. In Q5 and Q6, I had more than 3x the employees that any competitor had..
.
(UNTIL Q8
- MORE
INFO ON
LATER
SLIDE)
ADVERTISTING
If it ain't broke, don't fix it...
*
Real version, download to view --->
Like the Brand & Pricing, since my initial strategy had worked (spending very
little on ads, opening as many stores as possible, hiring more salespeople
than any other competitor), I kept it going - like everything else, it took a
nosedive Q4-Q6.
Ads vs. Product Specs - am I the only one?
I also had a lot of trouble getting the Ads to be well received/not have any
mistakes on them; I’m not sure if that was my own personal problem, or it
was an intneiotnal challenge from the simulation. I also spent next to no
money on internet ads, because my errant thought was “We have stores in 12
places, the next best is 5, AND we have almost 50% market share. I assumed
we had become the Coca Cola of cycling - everyone knew us.
Clicks vs. Clickthroughs vs. Impressions etc. etc. etc.
As mentioned early on, I did not pay a lot of attention to ads, espcially online.
Once I did, even after multiple attempts and with the aid of the lessons in the
simulation, I have a hard time understanding what metric is "king" - or maybe
none of them are? -- On my website/side hustle, I also struggle with this.
(UNTIL Q8 - MORE INFO ON LATER SLIDE)
SALES
Sales
Throughout the simulation, North
America was always #1, LATAM #2, &
APAC #3.
I assigned sales reps, advertising
budget, handouts etc. based on
these figures (more sales to more
people = more money spent, and
less for less).
BINGO
FORMERLY OLDER BROTHER'S
(GREG)- NOW FAMILY DOG, 2021
Data Trends,
by Sales segment
RJF, By revenue & Numbers
12 Stores, all available locations
99 employees
2.74 mil in Q7 Revenue; 6.26 mil in Q8
1.5 mil in Q7 Gross Profit; 3.79 mil in Q8
6484 Global Bike Sales in Q8
Market Share 21.9%, up from 10.1% in Q7
Peaked at 49% market share in Q4
Began with 3 models, 3 ads
grew to 5 models, 4 ads; changed 1 of the 5 to a
"Super Bike";
deleted and built 5 new models & 5 corresponding
ads to start Q8evenue & Numbers
factors when Deciding
a Bike's Price
Cost of Goods to Create the Bike
Location (store vs. ONline)
Region & Competitor's price within that region
Time spent to "sell" a bike - if you can sell 10
cheaper bikes in the time it takes to sell 1 that's top
of the line, what's a better use of time?
Historical data, Projected demand
Market Cap for the bike category - if you're trying
to sell 20,000 Speed Bikes in a country that will
never by more than 5,000, what can you do
different?
Employees skilled to sell the bike & the amount of
ad dollars behind it
(UNTIL Q8 - MORE INFO ON LATER SLIDE)
TODAY
CHARLIE
fORMER stRAY, NOW
FAMILY CAT, 2021
Where
are
we
today?
Q1 to Q7
Original guiding principles
BRand: Kid's focused, create 2 other types of bikes - ads
for all 3, no real specialization or consideration of $$
Q1
Research and Planning
No real challenges here - while the naming &
logo are part of the process, they are low stakes
and do not have any effect on the numbers - it'll
be the next quarter when tests are run.
Q2
Liftoff
Still very much in the trial and error phase; all
graphs seem to be positively trending in the right
direction & the complaints from customers or
advertising auditors is minimal - simple focus on
Kid's bikes, 3 designs, 3 ads
Q3
It's working...
DEveything continues to trend properly;
spending less than competitors but have more
storees, taken a big bite of the market share no need to reinvent the wheel.
Q4
Nearly 50% market share, minimal ad buys,
low general overhead? This will work forever!
Describe the products development
timeline phase by phase in detail
and effective.
Q5
It begins to come undone
THe previous quarter, I was #1 in our 70+ person
class for marketing effectiveness; this quarter smells
trouble, as every significant statistic has dropped.
ADvertisting: before learning Internet is king, we spent
almost nothing on ads; since we had 50% market share,
we thought this could keep going
Q6
Pricing: rice hikes with big rebates
Just over 10% Market Share, over $1
million in the red
The drops continue - I decide to attempt to "ride
it out" - if it worked before, why can't it work
again?
Sales: Stores & People 1st, Everything else 2nd
Q7
Reinvention Ahead
Time to start from square one...
TOMORROW
Q8 ---- DESTROY
BRAND
ADS
PRICE
Below is every change made
between Q7 and Q8, across Brand,
Ads, Price & Sales
SALES
DID ANYTHING STAY THE SAME?
Deleted all 5
Deleted all 5
Matched or went
Crazy high
Roughly same
original designs
original ads
50-100 higher
individual
number of
Chose the 5
Chose the 5
than highest
demand for each
employees
highest rated
highest rated
priced AND
employee - but
The company
bikes from each
bikes from each
highest rated
this was the last
name & logo
category & mirror
category & mirror
bikes
hurrah
them
them
Limited rebates
99 employees, 12
New Naming
Look at the
to under 100, like
global stores -
convention -
highest
all competitors
the most
LC______Ultra
performing
had
employees? New
for all bikes
company in each
Since this was
York City (#1),
Ensured 1 Service
ad space
the final quarter,
while the least
member in every
(organic, local
any investment in
employees? Rio
store
etc), chose the
the future was
(#12)
WORK - 4
best performing
withheld -
2x Sales
features
one from each
obviously, in a
Compensation
removed, 7
bike category &
real life scenario,
awarded to
added
aligned them
one would never
successful sales
KIDs - 2, 3
with our new
do this
teams
SPEED - 11, 9
bikes
Highest Price in
Employee
RECREATION - 5,
In instances of
US, 2nd in APAC,
assignment
10
bidding, went
3rd in LATAM
based on
MOUNTAIN - 4, 2
10% over
margins, ceiling
"average";
of purchase,
non-internet ads,
region
invested 10%
more than best
performing
company
...and rebuild
AND? WHAT HAPPENED?
99 employees across 12 stores
2.74 mil in Q7 Revenue; 6.26 mil in Q8
1.5 mil in Q7 Gross Profit; 3.79 mil in Q8
6484 Global Bike Sales in Q8
Market Share 21.9%, up from 10.1% in Q7
Peaked at 49% market share in Q4
Began with 3 models, 3 ads; grew to 5 models, 4 ads; changed 1 of the 5 to a "Super Bike"; deleted and built 5 new
models & 5 corresponding ads to start Q8
Caleb & charlie
up to no good
TOMORROW
Beyond Q8
*
Matched the entire classe's minimum; it's
good to be humbled often as they say
Advice, Lessons & Guiding Principles for Q9
Sig Figs to Learn from
MARKET SHARE, Q4
MARKET SHARE, Q7
49% 11%
MARKET SHARE, AFTER Q8
TROPHIES WON
21.6% 16
CREATION OF WEALTH (FULL
SIMULATION)
TOTAL REVENUE GLOBALLY,
INCREASE % FROM Q7 TO Q8
0.574* 250%
SUCCESSFUL QUARTERS (Q3 AND
LATER
2
"UNSUCCESSFUL QUARTERS"
4
Words to Live By
Q1 Success does not equal Q8
Success in Q2, 3, 4 etc.
Don't be afraid to destroy & rebuild
Remember that competitor's don't
necessarily have the same goal as
you do.
Don't be too precious with your ideas
- if you try something and it doesn't
work, move on; if it does work, keep
an eye on it
Leading in one category does not
indicate an award worthy simulation
run
The numbers can be daunting, as is
the internet ad jargon - the better
you understand it, the better you'll
do
Money attracts money - don't spend
the most on ads in the last ranked
city, on the #5 Priority Category
Caleb & charlie
up to no good
REFLECTION & ADVICE
Reflection
Now that I've had more than one of these types of simulations at Ball State,
my opinion on them has completely shifted.
I was a marketing major in college, and have done a handful of shorter
simulations, and 2 full semester long ones.
Those were, in a word, useless.
This simulation though, with it's literal thousands of data points, all based
on real life factors that would influence a decision, and then to be able to
see what choices caused what outcome (expected or not)?
Terrific - and I say that as someone who is way at the end of the line!
One thing I think would be interesting is to include maybe a 5 minute clip
for each presentation, where the team hits on their journey, why they made
the decisions they made & what they would've done differently.
I'm sure there are also instances where an input I entered seemed to be at
fault, but in reality, it was something else - and a differet team could
identify that.
I also wonder if there is a version of this simulation where the teams are
"launching an app/running an app."
Given how often the start ups we listened to on the podcast were built just
like that, I think it might connect the classwork and project work a little bit
better.
To the future CEOs of Spring 2022:
You'll get out of it as much as you put in; and
if you think you've "figured it out", you haven't
- but that's the point!
Have a "numbers guy" who just pours over the
data from the previous quarter; there is so
much to look at that it can be overwhelming,
But if you spend enough time looking for
what's important, you'll make infinitely better
decisions.
In both life & in the simulation, get very, very
comfortable with SEO/Digital Marketing
terminology. If you ever start a website (I
have a handful of side hustles), trying to
understand the best bang for your buck is
incredibly challenging - study up!
Go for a bike ride! Get into it!
DATA, CHARTS, REPORTS
Pre-Q8 Data &
Analytics
Post-Q8 Data &
Analytics
For full data
pulled, visit here:
GInger, Family Dog 2012
Robert Joseph Finn
Cell (US)
Cell (INTL)
Email (main) Are
Email (alts)
Website
LinkedIn
Instagram
Aforementioned
Side Projects
all here - https://linktr.ee/robertjfinn
RJF & + - Consulting
SaturdayNightProject.com
Rob Finn
30 - BOSTON, MA
DAYTIME SALES, SALES DEVELOPMENT & BDR
DIRECTOR
MOONLIGHT AS OTHER STUFF
Coming soon - Greg &
Bingo Coalition 501c3
OctoberNinth.com
Thank You
Thank you again , Dr. Vanmeter, for being so supportive &
understanding this past month or so.
This course & the course I took with you last semester
were some of the best classes I've ever had the pleasure of
being in.
To the right is my dad, the animal whisperer.
I'm actually, with my family, trying to do something cool
to remember his birthday by yearly
Turning 10/9 into #NationalCallYourdadDay
I mean, croutons have their own day - why not a day for
just calling, not texting, and saying hello?
If you're on facebook, just trying to get people to RSVP (its
a year away practically)
And are trying to do some other donation based stuff on
Octoberninth.com
Happy holidays & take care,
ROB FINN