Long
Printed
Range
Planning,
in Great
002+6301/83
Vol. 16, No. 5, pp. 89 to 93, 1983
Strategic
Artificial
Clark Holloway,
$3.00 +
Pergamon
Britain
Management
Intelligence
College
of Business Administration,
.OO
89
Press Ltd.
and
Columbia
of the number
in existence
are variable.
It is
that growth
curves from
significant,
however,
various sources all show about the same slope, both
in numbers of robots and in dollar value.14 Figure 1
supplies a rough forecast of the potential growth of
AI installations
in the United
States, based on
currently available and realistic forecasts of robotic
installations.
Problems
in strategic management
are characterized by uncertainty,
incomplete
information
and
time pressure. A strategy problem may be defined
as a situation where it is not obvious there is a
problem.
Evaluating
the merit of a particular
acquisition
is straightforward,
but it may not be
apparent that a company
should consider acquisitions as a strategy. The ‘solution’ to a business
policy problem is often obtained in stages. Using
the above example,
first it is determined
that
acquisitions
is a strategy,
and next a particular
acquisition
is evaluated.
At first glance, one might suppose that robots and
robotics
have nothing
to do with
strategic
management.
The traditional
view is that robots
are an extension of factory automation
and hence
should be discussed under the head of production
management.
This is not the case. Current work
and directions of work in robotics have important
lessons for the most general considerations
of
business policy problems.
One would logically expect the increasing use of
robots
in production
management
to be a
precursive
indicator
for the use of Artificial
Intelligence
(AI) in general
management.
The
definition of a robot is variable and hence estimates
Clark Holloway is Assistant Professor of Management at the College
of Business Administration, University of South Carolina, Columbia,
SC 29208, U.S.A.
This paper will summarize some of the surprising
current
achievements
in robotics,
will discuss
implications
of present-day
robots
for general
management
(as opposed to production
management), and will lay groundwork
for the major
question (to be addressed in a later paper): how and
when do we expect a supercomputer
to share or
usurp functions
of a corporate
chief executive?
Throughout
this paper the intent is to encourage
the reader to extrapolate
beyond robotics into AI
applications.
The Nature of Artificial
Intelligence
Intelligence is the faculty of knowing and reasoning
or the faculty of understanding.
To know is to have
in the mind. To reason is to form or try to reach
conclusions.
To understand
something
is to
perceive the significance or explanation
or cause or
nature of it.
‘Artificial’ suggests the use of a non-human
process.
Each of the terms in the preceding
paragraph
is
highly
charged
with
emotion.
An alternate
definition
of ‘to know’ is ‘to be aware’. This
suggests the concept ‘to be self-aware’, and we as
humans are loath to concede that a machine could
ever be self-aware, although there is no logic for
such a feeling. Similarly, it is repungnant
to many
to admit that a machine can perceive. Each term
being used has been reserved
to humans from
centuries
immemorial,
and we are reluctant
to
relinquish this language.
Long
Range
Planning
Vol. 16
October
1983
In the next few years, the microcomputer
will
become self-programming-it
will be commanded
rather than programmed.
A prototype
already on
the market requires no codes or special languages.
Another
system now available
can read handprinted characters.
ir
-
Beyond
the microprocessor,
experts are looking
toward the nano-processor,
more powerful
by a
factor of a thousand, and expected to be available
within a decade. Next would come the picoprocessor, one million times more powerful
than the
microprocessor.
It has been speculated
that this
might be patterned
on the molecule that controls
heredity, and that it would rival the human brain in
the compactness
of its intelligence.5
10 1
0
1980
1985
1990
In such a fast moving field it is foolhardy to attempt
to report precise computer
,speeds. However,
to
give orders of magnitude,
home computers
can
perform a few hundred arithmetic
operations
per
second. The most powerful supercomputers
today,
of which only about three dozen exist, may reach
computing
speeds
in excess
of 100 million
operations
per second. These are approaching
the
nanoprocessor
class.’
Calendar Year
Figure 1. Projected growth curves for robots
for artificial intelligence
installations
and
Few would thus object to the definition
which
follows,
but many might
feel it describes
an
inherently
and forever
impossible
condition.
Artificial
Intelligence
(AI) is a non-human
black
box which possesses the faculties of knowing,
reasoning and understanding.
A robot
is any machine
that performs
jobs
previously done by a human, is self-operating
and is
‘intelligent’, that is, it contains logic in the form ofa
microcomputer.
A robot must be versatile; it is
more than automated
machinery.’
Robots of the
future
that
can perceive,
reason,
plan
and
manipulate
are already possible. Even now in the
automotive
industry,
the new smarter
models
perform simple discretionary
thinking functions6
The borderline
between robots and computers
is
often one of semantics. The term ‘microcomputer’
can often be replaced by ‘robot’. The microcomputer is the brains of the robot. The impact of the
microcomputer
on our life may be greater than was
the automobile
or the electric light. Applications
are not limited by cost or capability-only
by
imagination.
The computer
is an electronic
device that
manipulate
symbols.
As usually conceived,
symbols are numbers, and the computer is used
‘number crunching’.
However,
the symbols
represent’ideas
as well as numbers,
and then
computer
phases into a ‘thinking machine’.
can
the
for
can
the
The hardware
reach.
needed
for AI is thus well within
Recalling
and restating
our previous
definition,
intelligence
is the capacity to apprehend
facts and
propositions
and their relations, and to discover or
formulate
extensions
to them in orderly rational
ways. We must guard against the belief that
intelligence
is limited to living organisms. Not all
living things are intelligent;
even in their present
state many computers
are more intelligent
than
certain life forms.
We see no barrier to computers
entering
every
aspect of intelligence. The ability to invent and ask
questions that go beyond orderly, rational frameworks, the ability to be creative, and the ability to
display ‘wisdom’ are all foreseeable.’
Current
Robots
The subjects of robots and robotics
are highly
visible. In addition to recurring articles in the press
and in popular magazines like Time, Business Week,
Fortune, US News and World Report and Forbes, there
is at least one journal
devoted
entirely
to the
subject: Robotics Today. Technical articles are also
published
in various journals.
See for example:
Robots
for
assembly,
American
Machinist,
December 1980; The robots are coming, Mechanical
Engineering,
December
1980; Vision adds talent to
robots, Electronics, 6 November
1980; Teaching the
industrial
robot,
Industrial
Research/Development,
June
1979; Inside GM’s
robot
extravaganza,
Automotive
Industries, March 1981. Other pertinent
Strategic
journals
are Industrial Management,
Datamation,
Industry Week, Electronics News, New Scientist,
Mettalurgia,
IEEE Spectrum, Iron Age, Machine
Design and Production Engineering. Glorioso
and
Osorio9 have given us a treatise on Engineering
Intelligent Systems, which covers a wide variety of
subjects necessary for intelligent
system design,
including
recent
advances
in semiconductors,
computer
software
systems
and networks,
reliability and repair, computer vision, the representation of knowledge
and robots in industry.
extensive
There
is, of course,
philosophy
on questions
related
machines can ever think or feel.
literature
in
to whether
Management
The microcomputer
can simulate human speech in
a small part of its circuitry. In another educational
application,
the microcomputer
speaks a work for a
young child to try to spell by typing it on a
keyboard. If the result is incorrect, the machine says
‘That is incorrect’, and spells it correctly.
Researchers have developed a type of artificial skin,
which gives the robots a sense of touch. A robot can
thus tell when a part doesn’t ‘feel’ right in its hand,
and can take necessary action. Hearing is still a
difficult
task for robots,
but capabilities
are
expected
to improve
rapidly during the 1980s.
Robots won’t be limited to human senses. They
may utilize infrared, sonar, ultraviolet,
radiation or
other special senses .5 University
of South Carolina
scientists have had some success in making robots
that can see, understand
human speech and even
give advice. A simple microcomputer
that starts
out by recognizing
512 spoken words can be
programmed
to recognize
commands
and to
increase
its vocabulary.
With this technology,
industry
will be able to control
machinery
by
talking to the computer, and the computer will talk
back.”
A robot will be able to decide if it needs help. If it is
damaged, can it continue, should it summon help,
or should it turn itself off and wait to the end of its
‘shift’?
Even today robots are easily programmed.
The
robot is guided through the steps of a task and a
program memory button is pressed. Thereafter
the
robot
remembers
and can repeat
the process
indefinitcly.5
Intelligence
91
Parts of the completely
automated
factory are here
today. Robots are being used in increasingly
more
sophisticated jobs requiring the ability to ‘see’ and
to ‘touch’. Robots in one plant pick up calculators
from a conveyor belt. Another robot with celluloid
‘fingers’ pushes the buttons and visually scans the
glowing
numbers
to check that each calculator
works properly.
Depending
on the outcome,
the
computer-robot
decides whether the calculator is
acceptable or must be reworked.4
A Japanese plant early in 1982 will operate 24 hours
a day, with humans coming in only during the 8
daylight hours.”
Numbers
In schools, microcomputers
are used for teaching
English, mathematics
and history. The microcomputer assesses a student’s responses to determine
areas of weakness and then chooses appropriate
exercises to teach and challenge the student without
being boring. In teaching singing, the microcomputer prints out notes for the student to sing, and
the microcomputer
listens and compares
the
student’s pitch with the true pitch.
and Artificial
and Nationalities
It is misleading to focus exclusively
on individual
robots, as opposed to automating
entire factories,
i.e. the integration
of an entire manufacturing
has declared
process. The Japanese government
automation
to be a national goal. Some feel that
Japan is pulling ahead in robot production
because
of labor-management
practices: super management
rather than super technology.
The first American robot was made in 1961, the first
Japanese in 1969 and the first Russian in 1971.
Soviet robots are less sophisticated
than either
Japanese or American, but the Soviet Union ranks
second to Japan in the number
of robots
in
operation.
Japan’s definition
of robot is broader than that in
the U.S. Even using the U.S. definition-a
machine
that can do many different jobs using a variety of
materials and whose instruction
can be altered for
new jobs-there
were 11,250 robots in Japan at the
end of 1980, compared to 4370 in the U.S.‘* Robots
in use in the U.S. could rise to 40,000 by 1990.4 The
distribution
of robots across industries in Japan is
available.3
Japan builds 45 per cent of the world robot output.
Nearly all of these are used within Japan, but the
government
may soon give a boost
toward
dominating
world markets. Western technology
and the difficulty of servicing robots overseas may,
however, restrict the export trade. One company
has formed a 500-man task force to develop a robot
with both visual and tactile sensors, expected to be
in routine use by 1985. Another robot can recognize
and sort parts, position them within 4/100,000 inch,
and then assemble them.
Robots
are increasingly
cost-effective
because
wages are rising much faster than robot prices.
Japan has more giant robot making companiesthose with over 5000 employees-than
the total of
all American robot makers. Counting government
funding, the U.S. spends more than Japan on robots
research, and the U.S. still leads in software, which
small companies can be very good at.13
92
Long Range
Implications
Planning
Vol. 16
October
for Executive
Management
Computers
have traditionally
operated
in the
sequential,
or Von Neuman
mode: a ‘left-brain’
area. We now see the computer beginning to move
into the fuzzy realm of the ‘right-brain’,
where
intuition,
imagination
and creativity
are located.
With
the ability
to assimilate
huge banks of
knowledge,
arrange the facts (or opinions)
into
pertinent categories, and exploit the knowledge by
generalization
and analogy,
the presence
of a
learning,
adaptive
computer
seems inevitable
within this decade.
To explore
the possible impact
of AI on the
functions of management,
let us consider planning
as an example.
Planning
is a top-level
activity,
involving
complex
and inter-related
business
decisions.
The elements
of Strategic
Planning
are not
repetitive-they
cannot be programmed
into a
‘standing plan’ procedure.
Feedback is essential in
Strategic
Planning;
each of the elements
of
Strategic Planning is subject to repeated evaluation
and change.
No part of a Strategic Planning system appears to
be beyond the scope and capabilities of an emerging
Artificial
Intelligence
concept.
Present
in the
massive
memory
would
be information
in a
number
of categories:
government
regulations;
historical
and
current
industry
information;
historical and current information
on competitors
and customers;
political data; and demographic
data. Such information
is kept up-to-date
by the
computer
regularly ‘reading’ (using optical scanners) a series ofpublications:
the Wall Streetjournal,
trade publications,
government
bulletins, pertinent
newspapers,
and competitors’
annual reports. Of
course, data for the company
of the data bank.
itself are always
The ability of Artificial Intelligence
an abstract element like ‘Establish
less formidable
when the element
(1) Understand
(2) Be aware
present
part
to handle even
Mission’,
looks
is subdivided:
mission.
of trends with time in the actions of
competitors,
customers, environments,
and the
company itself.
of the company’s strengths
(3) Having knowledge
and weaknesses in addition to the above trends,
points for needed change in the Mission become
obvious.
It is not too early for executive
management
to
begin detailed
consideration
of the impact
of
Artificial
Intelligence
and how the corporation
should react to it.
1983
Within a decade we can visualize the following: An
Artificial Intelligence exists at corporate headquarters. It has more corporate,
industry, political and
demographic
knowledge
than the CEO or any of
the top executives, or even the combined executive
group. Further, the planning ability and decisionmaking
ability
of the Artificial
Intelligence
surpasses that of anyone in the executive group.
We are faced with the major question, ‘How is the
Artificial
Intelligence
to be administered?’
The
various
possibilities
might
trace an evolving
sequence.
Perhaps at an intermediate
level, the
Artificial Intelligence would be administered
by the
CEO’s office. Since AI is recognized
to be more
capable
than any person,
the CEO has been
instructed
by his Board of Directors
to relay the
Artificial
Intelligence
plans and decisions
to
appropriate points for action, without question and
without
modification
of any sort. This would
maintain traditional
human lines of authority
and
the CEO would preserve his prestige. Since the
CEO post remains prestigious there should be little
trouble in arranging for Artificial Intelligence to be
brought into the corporation.
Traditionally,
when
the corporation
falls on hard times, the CEO may
be discharged. If hard times do occur, there may be
psychological
and public
relations
merit
in
discharging
someone, and this option includes a
CEO who can be fired. In the ultimate,
the
Artificial Intelligence
would be tended by clerical
staff, and it is recognized
both internally
and
externally
that all decisions
are made by AI.
Directives
would be issued by a figurehead.
There are other
answered:
more
disturbing
questions
to be
‘bad’ about control
. . . Is there anything inherently
by AI? Would AI perhaps be more Machiavellian
in
evading government
regulations
or in ignoring
‘social responsibility’?
. . . Regard the executive function as a ‘black box’.
Does it make any real difference to the organization
or to society whether the black box is inhabited by
humans or by a disembodied
intelligence?
. . . What
becomes of displaced executives?
Since
the executive
group is less than 1 per cent of the
population,
in contrast to the multitudes
of blue
collar
workers
facing
possible
replacement
by
robots,
is this only a minor
problem?
. . . What logical actions can the CEO take to avoid
being replaced ay AI? Instead, if AI will be better
for his organization,
as seems likely, should not the
progressive
CEO promote
the early introduction
and development
of AI into his organization?
Strategic
Management
(9)
and Artificial
93
Intelligence
Ft. M. Glorioso and F. C. C. Osorio, Engineering
Digital Press, Billerica, Mass. (1981).
Intelligent
Systems,
(10) Michael N. Huhns and M. Yuschik, USC engineers
robots, The Columbia
create
12 May (1981).
Record,
(11) Fanuc edgescloser to a robot-run plant,
Business
Week, 24, 56,
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(12) M. Kanabayaski, March of the robots,
Wall Street Journal,
24
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