International Oil Market
”The use of solar energy has not been opened up because the oil industry does not own the sun.”
- Ralph Nader
Prof. Olga Trofimenko
|
International Trade: Modern Trends, Methods of Analysis
Presented by Chalid Alekberow, Aleksej Karlowksi and Mark Spektor
17.12.2021
Overview
Introduction and History of Oil Trade
2. Current Oil Market exploration
3. Expectations, Forecast and Conclusion
1.
| past
| present
| future
| Chalid
| Mark
| Aleksej
Mark Spektor
2. Current Oil Market
Key Players (Exporters, 2019)
1
Question to Audience:
How big do you think was the Crude Oil Market in 2019 in $ Billions?
Key Players (Exporters, 2019)
Oil Market = Crude Oil = HS6 Product Code: 270900:
“Oils; petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals, crude”
Total World Exports:
Top 6 Exporters:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
United Arab Emirates
Russian Federation
Canada
United States
Kuweit
Nigeria
$ 728.8 bln.
Value
World-Share
$ 127.3 bln.
$ 122.2 bln.
$ 68.1 bln.
$ 65.3 bln.
$ 46.5 bln.
$ 41.0 bln.
(17%)
(17%)
( 9%)
( 9%)
( 6%)
( 6%)
% of Country-GDP
30,2%
7,2%
3,9%
0,3%
34,2%
9,2%
1
Key Players (Importers, 2019)
1
Question to Audience:
Total World Imports: $1 333 bln. ≠ $ 728.8 bln. Exports
Why?
Dependents (Importers, 2019)
Total World Imports:
$1 333 bln.
≠
$ 728.8 bln. Exports
(Taxes & Import Duties?)
Top 6 Importers:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
European Union
China
United States
India
Japan
South Korea
Value
World-Share
$ 249.7 bln.
$ 238.7 bln.
$ 132.4 bln.
$ 101.9 bln.
$ 73.1 bln.
$ 70.3 bln.
(19%)
(18%)
(10%)
( 8%)
( 5%)
( 5%)
% of Country-GDP
1.3%
1.7%
0.6%
3.6%
1.4%
4.3%
1
Learnings from Import / Export
o Especially United Arab Emirates (30%) and Kuwait (34%) dependent on Crude-Oil Export
o Top 6 exporting countries higher Export/GDP Share than Import/GDP Share of Top 6 importing countries
•
Exporting:
(30.2+7.2+3.9+0.3+34.2+9.2)/6 = 85/6
 AVG: 14.2%
•
Importing:
(1.3+1.7+0.6+3.6+1.4+4.3)/6= 12.8/6
 AVG: 2.1%
Interaction Map of Importers and Exporters
4, 2006
5, 2016
Crude Oil usage
What is oil used for?
(Question to Audience)
Current Events & Politics
o Inflation in Germany 2, 3
• 5.2% in November 2021 (energy prices +22.1%, heating oil +100%, fuel +43.2%)
• Highest inflation since June 1992
o Gazprom 2
o US developed fracking, but it is more expensive than current producers
3. Revealed Comparative Advantage | Balassa Index
Based on Export
(Trade Flow)
Time Series
Reporter
Name
China
China
China
China
China
China
China
China
China
China
Partner
Name
India
India
India
India
India
India
India
India
India
India
Trade
Flow
Export
Export
Export
Export
Export
Export
Export
Export
Export
Export
Product Group
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Footwear
4,99 3,51 3,52 8,32 9,4 10,2 9,56 9,26 9,99 10,6 7,24 5,5 6,36 6,1 5,47 5,3 5,89 4,79 4,97 5,57 5,84 5,96 4,94 4,13 3,73 4,2 4,26 3,79
Hides and Skins
1,21 1,13 0,89 1,04 1,92 0,95 1,11 0,62 0,79 0,83 1,07 1,31 0,93 1,18 1,24 1,04 1,26 1,23 1,5 2,1 2,47 2,53 2,05 1,74 1,74 2,09 2,62 2,59
Mach and Elec
0,92 0,94 0,54 0,72 0,93 1,04 1,52 1,62 1,79 1,65 2,06 2,22 2,45 2,5 2,47 2,43 2,78 2,95 2,94 2,83 3,2 3,54 3,22 2,79 2,68 3,01 2,7 2,49
Textiles and Clothing 10,2 10,5 4,52 4,74 5,7 4,52 4,74 5,31 5,37 4,21 4,45 4,58 4,97 5,53 4,64 3,82 3,91 3,72 3,74 3,7 3,8 4,08 3,41 2,77 2,31 2,51 2,68 2,46
Capital goods
0,72 0,85 0,45 0,6 0,77 0,89 1,29 1,36 1,44 1,39 1,81 1,81 1,93 2,08 1,88 1,98 1,87 2,39 2,57 2,65 2,75 2,97 2,87 2,44 2,42 2,65 2,42 2,19
Chemicals
2,16 2,66 1,86 2,32 3,07 2,55 2,7 2,56 2,81 2,51 2,7 2,71 2,14 1,97 1,87 1,89 1,66 1,62 1,98 2,06 2,29 2,33 2,34 2,02 1,65 1,67 1,93
2
Miscellaneous
0,35 0,48 0,51 0,55 0,58 0,72 0,92 1,18 1,19 1,09 1,16 1,07 1,12 1,06 0,96 0,89 0,46 2,24 2,48 2,7 2,84 2,07 1,65 1,2 1,08 1,64 1,84 1,75
Plastic or Rubber
0,59 0,53 0,59 0,53 0,44 0,45 0,53 0,45 0,71 0,7 0,7 0,81 0,85 0,97 1,2 1,3 1,28 0,87 0,95 1,21 1,1
1 1,03 0,88 0,92 0,94 1,08 1,22
Consumer goods
0,72 0,39 1,35 0,29 0,29 0,43 0,55 0,71 0,92 1,19 1,17 1,21 1,07 1,05 1,03 1,09 1,07 1,39 1,35 1,31 1,27 1,43 1,25 1,28 1,25 1,26 1,26 1,22
Metals
0,52 1,12 0,44 0,81 1,44 1,65 1,41 1,59 1,33 1,12 0,73 0,94 0,98 1,03 1,68 1,68 1,81 1,12 1,66 1,51 1,48 1,43 1,59 1,27 1,13 1,12 1,12 1,17
Reporter
Name
India
India
India
India
India
India
India
India
India
India
Partner
Name
China
China
China
China
China
China
China
China
China
China
Trade
Flow
Export
Export
Export
Export
Export
Export
Export
Export
Export
Export
Product Group
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Textiles and Clothing 0,42 0,25 0,66 0,69 1,24 1,78 1,8 2,23 2,04 1,8 1,38 0,85 0,93 0,93 2,85 2,81 2,72 2,6 5,33 6,93 10,4 13,2 11,9 10,1 7,75 6,21 6,74 5,76
Footwear
0,08 0,16 0,17 0,48 1,15 2,56 3,22 6,4 7,19 7,51 9,19 8,09 5,9 5,32 7,6 8,51 5,56 7,58 7,48 9,44 11,4 13,5 10,6 8,79 7,52 5,39 4,55 5,47
Animal
9,72 7,29
12 10,3 7,63 3,42 2,25 1,44 6,38 4,8 2,42 1,35 0,94 0,99 1,58 1,09 0,85 1,36 1,14 0,91 0,92 0,94 0,66 0,89 0,58 0,51 1,49 3,4
Hides and Skins
1,76 2,87 4,57 3,25 2,27 1,5 1,82 1,66 1,48 1,62 1,62 1,58 1,53 1,57 1,9 1,91 1,75 2,26 2,35 2,73 4,22 4,46 4,89 4,44 4,89 3,76 3,66 2,8
Chemicals
0,77 1,25 0,94 1,42 0,72 1,02 1,35 1,62 1,85 1,5 1,9 1,42 1,19 1,31 1,44 1,16 0,86 0,97 0,78 0,88 1,35 1,46 1,61 1,98 1,75 2,02 2,64 2,7
Stone and Glass
0,83 2,61 7,01 3,15 1,37 1,89 2,19 5,87 3,63 4,48 4,19 3,65 2,92 2,83 2,66 2,6 2,18 3,79 3,56 4,11 5,95 7,64 6,05 2,43 3,89 3,97 4,59 2,64
Intermediate goods 0,62 1,49 1,12 1,13 1,38 1,33 1,55 1,41 1,48 1,51 1,84 1,99 1,3 1,32 1,39 1,14 0,83 1,25 1,2 1,7 2,48 3,17 3,25 2,93 2,82 2,99 3,18 2,63
Minerals
39,8 22,2 31,8 24,5 16,2 15,8 15,3 23,5 19,7 18,7 18,4 17,2 17,4 13,9 12,3 10,4 8,91 8,37 7,16 5,21 3,33 2,14 1,93 1,89 2,72 2,57 1,93 2,23
Vegetable
0,2 0,21 0,29 1,5 1,2 1,15 1,63 1,95 1,67 0,59 0,45 0,66 0,49 0,48 0,62 0,51 0,39 0,5 0,66 0,83 1,2 1,19 0,87 0,99
1 0,94
1 1,7
Plastic or Rubber
0,05 0,02 0,06 0,69 0,19 0,08 0,05 0,12 0,72 1,38 1,78 1,34 1,01 0,8 0,91 0,41 0,32 0,38 0,36 0,62 0,73 0,8 0,69 0,64 0,54 0,64 1,37 1,54
RCA>1 = advantage
RCA based on:
Ricardian Comparative Advantage Concept
producing at lower opportunity cost
wits.worldbank.org1
Thank you!
Chalid, Aleksej and Mark
References
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Data: https://wits.worldbank.org/
http://www.news.cn/english/202112/10/c_1310364820.htm#:~:text=BERLIN%2C%20Dec.%2010%20(Xinhua,(Destatis)%20said%20on%20Friday.
https://www.destatis.de/EN/Home/_node.html
https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Seaborne-crude-oil-trade-map-2006-Source-Lloyds-MIU_fig12_265567876
https://espace-mondial-atlas.sciencespo.fr/en/topic-resources/map-5C27-EN-oil-trade-2016.html ; BP, The
Statistical Review of World Energy 2017, www.bp.com
References // old presentation
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Data: https://wits.worldbank.org/
Population Statistics: https://www.worldometers.info/demographics/world-demographics/#pop
Country Sizes:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_dependencies_by_area
Growth Rates:
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?year_high_desc=true
https://www.indiatoday.in/business/story/india-china-total-trade-volume-100-billion-mark-2021-1864481-2021-1013
6. https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202111/1238365.shtml (China-India trade in 2021 exceeds $100 billion for the
first time in October); 02.11.2021: 100 bln.
7. Khanna, Tarun (December 2007). "China + India: The Power of Two". Harvard Business Review
8. APTA: https://www.unescap.org/sites/default/files/APTA%20Brochure%20rev.%2020170116.pdf
9. http://www.worldsrichestcountries.com/top_china_exports.html
10. http://www.worldsrichestcountries.com/top-india-imports.html
11. https://www.trademap.org
12. https://comtrade.un.org/data