Journal of Business Research 83 (2018) 38–50 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Journal of Business Research journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/jbusres The impact of brand penetration and awareness on luxury brand desirability: A cross country analysis of the relevance of the rarity principle T Jean-Noël Kapferera,⁎, Pierre Valette-Florenceb,c a b c INSEEC, 43 Quai de Grenelle, 75015, Paris, France Grenoble IAE, Université Grenoble Alpes, BP 47, 38040, Grenoble, France CERGAM, EA 4225, Aix-Marseille Université, France A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T Keywords: Luxury Dream Rarity Penetration Awareness Negative-binomial regression The global market for luxury brands has witnessed sustained growth in the last two decades, driven by purchases from emerging economies such as China and rising upper middle classes. Because luxury is associated with rarity and exclusivity, fears arise about whether continued growth might dilute the leading luxury brands' desirability. Prior studies offer conflicting results about the effect of greater market penetration on luxury brands' desirability; it appeared negative in the USA but not in Asia, today's highest growth luxury markets. The present research analyzes 3200 luxury consumers' perceptions of 60 major brands across six Eastern and Western countries, both emerging and mature. The overall effect of increased market penetration on luxury desirability remains negative, while the impact of awareness remains always positive. This confirmation of the rarity principle has notable implications for marketing luxury brands that seek to sustain their dream value. 1. Introduction Once a niche sector, accessible only to the wealthy, luxury has become a thriving market, aiming at a vastly enlarged clientele, encompassing the upper middle class. After the 2008 economic crisis, the personal luxury market began to grow again, reaching a rate of 30% between 2011 and 2016 (Bain & Co., 2017). Although mature countries remain the most important luxury markets, because of their purchasing power and the flow of incoming tourists, future growth is elsewhere, in the fast-rising, emerging countries. For example, the Chinese domestic market for personal luxury goods currently ranks third worldwide (at 17.9 billion €), just after Japan (22 billion €), but already having bypassed France (17.1 billion €) and Italy (17.3 billion €). The United States remains the top market (82 billion €) (Bain & Co., 2017). These figures only measure domestic sales, yet modern consumers also shop elsewhere in the world. Bain and Co. (2017) estimates that Chinese consumers represent 31% of all purchases of personal luxury goods in the world (Japanese 10% and other Asians 10%), when considering what they buy both domestically and abroad while traveling. Luxury, once the ordinary of extraordinary people, has become the extraordinary of ordinary people too. Thus, the luxury market is changing, and it appears likely to continue doing so, with global shifts across national borders. Existing, predominantly Western luxury brands, therefore, must determine if their traditional luxury ⁎ management approaches still apply among Eastern consumers. One major question for the managers of highly successful luxury brands is defining how well and how far they can generalize the notion that luxury brands' desirability rests on maintaining some form of rarity and exclusivity, thus on controlling the growth of brand penetration. Continued growth and rarity seem two opposed notions. To date, the academic literature has mainly focused on luxury measurement (Vigneron & Johnson, 1999; Wiedmann, Hennigs, & Siebels, 2007; de Barnier, Falcy, & Valette-Florence, 2012; Kapferer & Valette-Florence, 2016a, 2016b), on diverse reactions to marketing-mix variables such as price (e.g. Kapferer & Laurent, 2016; Parguel, Delecolle, & Valette-Florence, 2016) or on luxury brand commitment antecedents (e.g. Shukla, Banerjee, & Singh, 2016). However, in their everyday life, brand managers are more concerned with the performance of their brand: how to create growth yet maintain its luxury status. They monitor the growth of brand awareness and the overall penetration of their brands on the market seen as a whole and are sensitive to how these two parameters interact with the desirability for luxury brands. In a sense, this point of view corresponds to a paradigmatic shift from the study of individuality to the analysis at an aggregate level of the interplay of brands operating on the markets. One single pioneering study, conducted more than twenty years ago in the United States and replicated in France, concluded that greater market penetration dilutes the desirability of luxury brands Corresponding author. E-mail addresses: jnkapferer@inseec.com (J.-N. Kapferer), pvalette@grenoble-iae.fr (P. Valette-Florence). http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2017.09.025 Received 4 May 2016; Received in revised form 14 September 2017; Accepted 14 September 2017 Available online 10 October 2017 0148-2963/ © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. Journal of Business Research 83 (2018) 38–50 J.-N. Kapferer, P. Valette-Florence 2. Theoretical development (Dubois & Paternault, 1995), but this effect did not arise in two replication studies conducted in Singapore or Hong Kong, a disconfirmation which seems to limit the generalizability of the rarity principle to western clients. Asian consumers would be not at all the same from that respect? This is the research gap we address: theory and management need to know if the rarity principle is tied to the western culture (quite individualistic) and does not apply in Asia, or if it is a global principle. A cross country replication of the US seminal study was designed to provide an unambiguous answer. Consequently, our research focus is exclusively located at an aggregate level, trying to analyze what the interplay is between luxury brand awareness and luxury brand penetration in order to keep fueling the dream for luxury brands. Compared to the pioneering American study of Dubois and Paternault (1995), our contribution is hence threefold. First, it is a replication in the USA, twenty years after the original study: since then, many American luxury brands have been growing fast (Coach, Michael Kors, Tory Burch, Polo Ralph Lauren, etc.) and moulded public perceptions of luxury in this country. Secondly, we extend this research to Asian countries as well as European ones and South America, including mature countries as well as emerging countries, which are the great challenge for the future of the luxury industry. Thirdly, it represents an improvement as to the measurement procedures, the statistical models and the respondents' sample selection. Our results do confirm the hypothesis of the universality of the rarity principle, also known as the ‘dream equation’. However, they go one step further by showing that if the overall tendency remains the same whatever the country, subtle differences occur according to the culture, economic development of the corresponding countries and the maturity of the luxury market in these countries. Yet, our research does not aim at investigating the possible intervening processes, but aims in priority at assessing or not the validity of the rarity principle across countries and cultures, among luxury buyers. From a conceptual standpoint, our contribution refers to three main theoretical approaches. First, it mostly rests on Brock's commodity theory on the psychological effects of scarcity. Secondly, it also rests on cultural differences between the western culture and the Asian one (for instance as far as the need for uniqueness is concerned). Thirdly, it makes reference to bandwagon effect versus snob effect theory. Bandwagon effects (when one's choice follows the choice of the many) should be prevalent in countries where conformity is rewarded (such as China) or in new markets, where the consumers have not enough confidence in their own choice. Snob effects may appear in luxury mature markets where new riches need to differentiate themselves and adopt newer and lesser known brands with less penetration. Our results point out that although the dream equation seems to hold true whatever is the country, hence extending the seminal work of Dubois and Paternault (1995) to other countries than the USA, cultural differences exist between mature countries (France, Germany and Japan) and emerging ones (Brazil and China). Moreover, complementary and innovative statistical analyses shed light on the existence of thresholds of brand awareness and penetration beyond which the impact of awareness and of penetration are fully operating on the desirability of the brand, its dream value. Ultimately, and with regards to those thresholds, managerial illustrations are provided per countries and per brands. Below, we first provide an overview of the theoretical background relied on as to the interplays between luxury growth, luxury desirability, and cultural differences and rarity. We then present our research objectives, the methodology and the different stages involved in the subsequent analyses. The article then details the main theoretical as well as managerial contributions and concludes with a discussion of further research avenues that warrant attention. In the following sections, we shall address the core points of luxury growth, luxury brand desirability, the moderating role of cultural differences and the rarity principle. 2.1. The challenge of luxury growth Despite ongoing discussions about its precise meaning, the general concept of luxury is familiar and quite clear, even if one person's luxury is not identical to another person's (Berry, 1994). It refers to high quality, hedonistic products, often handmade, that express tradition or heritage and are sold in selective environments, at a price far beyond their functional utility, such that they are associated with taste, elegance and the elite (Vigneron & Johnson, 1999; Kapferer & Bastien, 2012). Luxury value consists of two elements: luxury for the self (selfreward, self-pampering, self-elevation) and luxury for others, which stems from the emotional pleasure of flaunting prosperity. According to self-congruency theory (Sirgy, 1982), luxury buyers can either buy luxury brands for themselves in order to satisfy their private self or for others to fulfill their social self. Hence, luxury brands serve signaling functions (Sundie et al., 2011), such that the rarity or exclusivity of a luxury product adheres to its buyers. This function is especially important in fast growing economies with a rising class of new rich who seek to make strong statements about their own success (Han, Nunes, & Dreze, 2010). The challenge of luxury brands thus is to sustain the notion or dream of privilege and exclusivity even as they diffuse and grow in popularity. This is all the most important today as many luxury brands can be called mega-brands: they dominate in terms of market share, of retail distribution and brand awareness (Solca, Bertini, & Fan, 2013). Unlike fast-moving consumer goods, which seek to extend their penetration and grow their sales constantly (Sharp, 2010; Romaniuk & Sharp, 2016), luxury diffusion should seek to remain limited, to maintain the sense of rarity. Yet, growing inherently means selling to more people, increasing the penetration of the brand, whether through more stores, more product lines, e-commerce sites, communication or more accessible prices. Thus, there is an inherent risk that growth might dilute the desirability of the leading luxury brands, on the basis of the following paradox: the higher the dream, the higher the sales, but the higher the sales, the lower the dream. 2.2. Why more sales create less desirability All definitions of luxury relate to some form of rarity and exclusivity. Historically, luxury products were reserved for the aristocracy, then later spread to the happy few or the rich who wished to emulate them (Berry, 1994). Only recently has luxury growth relied on extensions of sales to the upper-middle class. Despite this extension, perceived rarity and exclusivity remain underlying factors of the luxury concept. De Barnier et al. (2012) factor analyzed three widely used luxury perception scales and note that they share one convergent dimension: elitism. Thus, luxury value is based on perceived rarity and the feeling that not everyone can or should possess a specific luxury product or brand. Although the term “commodity” accordingly seems remote from luxury concerns, Brock's (1968) commodity theory is pertinent because it addresses the psychological effects of scarcity and asks: Why does scarcity enhance the desirability of anything that can be possessed? For Brock, the possession of scarce products creates value through feelings of personal distinctiveness and uniqueness, because possessions are an extension of the self (Belk, 1988). In addition, people might prefer not to look like everyone else, as suggested by need for uniqueness theory (Fromkin, 1970; Snyder & Fromkin, 1980). Lynn (1991) tests these assumptions and shows that the stronger the need for uniqueness, the more scarcity enhances value, especially for products purchased mainly 39 Journal of Business Research 83 (2018) 38–50 J.-N. Kapferer, P. Valette-Florence 2.4. The rarity principle: Previous empirical research on luxury brands for their symbolism (e.g., luxuries). As a strong test of this effect, Berger and Heath (2008) reveal “taste abandonment,” or a shift in preferences due to the post hoc realization that the product no longer acts as a viable signal of uniqueness. This effect occurs most readily when too many others, or else “rejected others,” adopt the product, causing it to lose its uniqueness and ability to symbolize a preferred status. Luxury brand penetration –the percentage of people having bought it – should negatively impact perceived brand rarity and exclusiveness. This negative impact is especially true for luxury brands. Yet, it could be argued that doubling the sales of Bentley's in China (1595 units in 2016) would not really impact its rarity, measured in percentage of the total number of cars sold in this giant country. But rarity is not to be understood as an absolute concept: luxury buyers do not measure themselves up to laymen, to the masses but up to their peers (Han et al., 2010). If there are four Bentley's in front of the Peninsula Hotel Hong Kong, this will not impact absolute rarity, nor the brand appeal among the masses, or the lower middle class, but it could impact its perceived rarity among the riches themselves (Solca et al., 2013). It means that this brand could lose its distinctive power and its feelings of exclusivity among the high end luxury buyers themselves, those who not only contribute to the business of Bentley's but above all to its prestige! Scarcity may stem from two sources: lack of supply or excess demand. Gierl and Huettl (2010, p. 230) explore how sources of scarcity interact with consumption to increase or decrease perceived value and note that, “If a product is used for conspicuous consumption, signals of scarcity due to limited supply are advantageous compared to signals of scarcity due to high demand.” Some luxury brands thus restrict their diffusion to enhance their desirability: Rolls Royce produced no more 4011 cars in 2016, and Ferrari made 8014. Hermès starves the market of high end leather bags: there is one-year waiting list for the iconic Kelly or Birkin bags. Three studies directly addressed the rarity principle and the associated risk of decreased desirability when luxury brands' penetration grows. A pioneering one, conducted in the United States, concluded that greater market penetration dilutes the desirability of luxury brands (Dubois & Paternault, 1995). However, this effect did not arise in two replication studies conducted in Singapore or Hong Kong, which seem to limit its generalizability to Western clients (Wong & Zaichkowsky, 1999; Phau & Prendergast, 2000). The present research is a replication of the American pioneering study, an extension to Asian, European and South American countries and to both mature and emerging countries. Finally, it is an improvement in methodology, especially that of the consumer sample recruitment, and the width of the brand sample. It fills a research gap: the rarity principle is often claimed to be internationally valid, but -so far- empirical evidence is contradictory. Is the rarity principle a myth? It also answers a managerial demand: to develop global luxury brands managers need to assess the validity of their own managerial practices across borders and cultures. The first study to address this rarity principle (negative impact of more penetration on luxury brands' desirability) also coined the term “Dream Equation” (Dubois & Paternault, 1995). The luxury industry often refers to its role as “selling dreams” (e.g., dream boats, dream places, dream watches). Bernard Arnault (2001, p. 117), the CEO of LVMH, the world's leading luxury group with more than 70 brands, describes luxury products as “items that serve little purpose in the lives of consumers except to fulfill dreams. And those dreams don't come cheap.” A content analysis of perceptions of luxury among consumers from six countries confirms that “dream” is a frequently used term to define luxury brands' uniqueness (Godey et al., 2013). What is this dream made of? Luxury brands do indeed sell more than sophisticated products and experiences: their desirability is also tied to the quality and exclusivity of life symbolically attached to these products as well as the heritage and prestige of their brands, and of their most glamorous clients. Dubois and Paternault (1995) focus on two levers of luxury desirability, brand awareness and brand penetration. Of course, luxury desire cannot be simply reduced to these two levers, but conspicuous consumption requires a recognizable brand logo, because without awareness, the luxury brand cannot perform its necessary role of costly signaling (Nelissen & Meijers, 2011). With a representative U.S. sample, including 3000 male and female consumers aged 15 years and older, Dubois and Paternault conducted individual interviews about 34 personal luxury brands. To measure awareness, they used a single, aided name awareness item. Because luxury is structurally associated with feelings of rarity and exclusivity, they also measured the level of penetration of the brand (i.e., the aggregate of individually declared purchases over the past two years). With regard to the “dream,” they used a lottery simulation, asking respondents to select the five brands they would like best if given the chance to choose a beautiful present. Dubois and Paternault adopted brands as the object of their study: their analyses were conducted at an aggregate level. They did not choose to analyze at the individual level for it would have measured another effect: the impact of knowing a name and of owning a product on its desirability. It is evident first that one cannot dream about a brand one does not know if only by name. As to the effect of individual purchase on desirability, it would have measured if possessing a luxury item dilutes its desirability, its dream value: do you still dream about Rolex when you possess one on your wrist? Instead, the present research focuses on the impact of penetration (how many others have bought) on a luxury brand's desirability. They selected 34 luxury brands from diverse product categories. This choice is based three reasons: 2.3. Cultural differences The moderating role of need for uniqueness, as posited by Brock (1968), has another implication: luxury brands are now international, and the importance of the need for uniqueness likely varies across international cultures. Managers of global brands thus need to know if they can generalize their existing knowledge about luxury buyers' psychology to consumers in Asian or emerging countries (Shukla, Singh, & Banerjee, 2015). As Liang and He (2012) show, in China the need for conformity is higher than in Western countries, where individualism is more prominent. Similarly, Zhan and He (2012) explain preferences for well-known brands among Chinese luxury consumers as functional, in that these mega-brands grant Chinese consumers a sense of security about quality and enable the buyers to increase their face, by enhancing their reputation and social status. This would explain the long-lasting commercial success of Louis Vuitton in China. These results echo Yang's (1998) study of Taiwanese fashion buyers, who do not wish to express individualistic autonomy, as their Western counterparts do, but rather seek to conform to contemporary mainstream norms. However, in an analysis of East Asian luxury consumers, Le Monk, House, Barnes, and Stephan (2012) show that a face-saving norm has a negative impact on buyers' desire for exclusivity in China, but a positive influence in Japan. Therefore, researchers cannot refer broadly to “Asia”, but instead must account for the unique features of different nations: China and Japan may both be Asian countries, but the former is still a developing country, whereas the latter is one of the most developed economies in the world. Although our research is designed to assess or not the validity of the rarity principle across countries and continents, and does not aim at investigating the possible intervening processes, we do expect differences in the magnitude of effects of penetration on luxury brand desirability among real luxury buyers. • Luxury today is brought by brands. People enter not a leather bag store, but a Prada store or a Coach store. • Luxury brands have extended their range to many product 40 Journal of Business Research 83 (2018) 38–50 J.-N. Kapferer, P. Valette-Florence • 3. Research objectives, hypotheses and methodology categories, selling a life style, thus encouraging the clients to come back to the store or to the site The luxury market today is concentrating itself, with many family companies joining luxury groups (LVMH, Kering, Richemont, EPI, etc.). Thus LVMH, world N°1 luxury group holds more than 70 brands, across 10 categories: leather, fashion, jewels, watches, cosmetics, fragrances, wine, spirits, travel and hospitality. Implicit is the belief that beyond product category differences, there is a unique and shared way to manage a luxury brand in order to maintain its luxury status. The main research objectives will be first presented, followed by the proposal of our hypotheses. Then the pursued methodology will be detailed. 3.1. Research objectives According to the rarity principle, high market penetration – a proxy for perceived exclusivity within one's own social environment – is negatively correlated to luxury brands desirability. This principle has been repeated over and over in texts on luxury brand management (Kapferer & Bastien, 2012), such that it has become essentially a mantra of luxury brands, most of which are European in origin. Yet, stockholders also demand that luxury brands continue to expand their penetration worldwide, especially in fast growing economies (e.g., China, Brazil). According to the traditional managerial mantra and predictions, continued growth in these new countries will put luxury brands at risk: it will dilute their feelings of exclusivity, a fundamental basis of their pricing power. Yet, as the preceding literature review indicates, Asian consumers might be less sensitive to rarity claims, such that more penetration would not dilute their dream as much as it does for their Western counterparts. This would explain the success of luxury mega-brands in Asia (Rolex, Chanel, Prada, etc.). To determine if these cultural differences are relevant and actual in real-world settings, as well as to help luxury managers understand how generalizable the rarity principle is globally, this widescale study was undertaken across six countries, with the premise that the dream equation will hold whatever the countries. This research then replicates the paradigm of the pioneer American study, as well as the two disconfirming Asian studies; it extends the research to more countries, so as to encompass both emerging and mature markets, both Asian and Western. Finally, it aims at improving the dependent variable measurement, the sampling selection process and the models of statistical analysis. When they regressed the dream value of these 34 luxury brands on measures of awareness and purchase, Dubois and Paternault found a significant positive beta weight for the former and a significant negative beta for the latter. Thus, the equation known as the “dream equation”, relating brand desirability to two major performance indicators of brands: Dream = 0.58 Awareness – 0.59 Purchase – 8.6 (R2 = 0.78). This “dream equation” confirmed that brand awareness creates value. It establishes the capacity of the brand to be recognized. Most important -holding brand awareness constant- a brand's dream value is negatively affected by a higher level of brand penetration in the population. The brand loses its perceived exclusivity. Therefore, to build the dream, the difference between the levels of brand awareness and brand penetration is of paramount importance. These results (i.e., negative impact of more penetration on desirability) have been replicated in France (Kapferer & Valette-Florence, 2016a), despite some methodological differences (more luxury brands from more diverse sectors, use of a binary measure of the dream value of the luxury brands, its desirability, simpler than the lottery simulation of the seminal study: “Does this brand make you dream?”). In contrast, two replications conducted in Asian nations produced conflicting results regarding the rarity principle (i.e., negative effect of more penetration). Specifically, Wong and Zaichkowsky (1999) replicated the methodology of the U.S. study in Hong Kong: they confirmed that awareness boosts a luxury brand's desirability but uncovered no negative effect of the aggregate purchase level on dream. The methodology they used relied on a convenience sample (n = 70, 40 men and 30 women) of relatively young Hong Kong residents (61% between 18 and 34 years), recruited as they visited popular shopping malls. The only criterion was that they had bought at least one product among the luxury brands on a list in the past three years; the list featured only personal luxury goods. The authors offer no specific explanation for the contradictory results, but they might reflect greater pressures toward conformity in Confucian cultures, where being unique is not as valued as it is in more individualistic, Western societies (Wong & Ahuvia, 1998; Shukla et al., 2015). Considering the importance of conformity in Asian societies, high brand penetration may not have the same deleterious effects among consumers: this might explain the local continuing success of luxury mega brands such as Vuitton or Gucci. Another explanation would be that the sample was made of lower middle class people attending popular shopping malls (not luxury shopping malls). Among these consumers, bandwagon effect prevails (Tsai, Yang, & Liu, 2013). Bandwagon effect refers to “the extent to which the demand for a commodity is increased due to the fact that others are also consuming the same commodity” (Leibenstein, 1950, p189). Snob effect is just the opposite. Another study, undertaken in Singapore by Phau and Prendergast (2000) and using the same methodology as Dubois and Paternault (1995), also failed to reproduce the original U.S. findings. Brand popularity (awareness) propelled the dream value of luxury brands, but these authors found no significant negative effect of aggregated penetration on the dream, after partialling out the impact of brand awareness. These authors refer to the local high need for conformity, to explain why mega luxury brands (high awareness and penetration) do actually reassure buyers. 3.2. Hypotheses This study seeks to provide comparable, relevant results across six major luxury markets to assess the international validity of the rarity principle, through the dream equation. Accordingly, we formally propose two main hypotheses: H1. Brand awareness positively affects the luxury brand dream (brand desirability) whatever the country. H2. Brand penetration negatively affects the luxury brand dream (brand desirability) whatever the country, holding brand awareness constant. This universality hypothesis is based on the dual function of luxury consumption (Kapferer & Bastien, 2012): luxury for self (self-rewards and pleasure) or luxury for others (brands being a marker of social stratification and the costly signaling of exclusivity). For a strong test of the universality of the rarity principle, we needed to select important luxury markets (Bain & Co., 2017) that also offer a distinction between emerging countries (China, Brazil) versus mature ones (USA, Japan, Germany, France), all from different continents. Emerging luxury markets showed -until now- higher growth rates than mature countries but the latter have higher levels of luxury consumption per capita. In this contrast, across countries, we anticipated differences in the amount of negative influence exerted by high penetration on desirability. This could be due to a number of potential factors, first of all cultural factors. Our review of need for uniqueness theory suggests that Chinese luxury buyers should be less sensitive to the rarity principle than Japanese consumers. Yet Chadha and Husband (2007) also note the importance of luxury for the fast rising class of new riches among Chinese consumers, compared with the rather bespoke vision of luxury in Japan. Similarly, U.S. luxury buyers should be less sensitive to the 41 Journal of Business Research 83 (2018) 38–50 J.-N. Kapferer, P. Valette-Florence Within each country, respondents were randomly presented a set of 15 brands among the 60 and simply had to indicate if each brand made them dream (or not), if they knew it more than only by name (or not), and if they already had bought it (or not). Since this study selected real luxury buyers, it was hypothesized that these respondents were knowledgeable about the brands and could voice a clear cut opinion about which of these brands were luxury brands and which were not. In addition the choice for asking single questions was in line with Rossiter (2016) who also advises to use single-item measures for the many constructs in marketing that are of an abstract nature. Moreover, since each respondent had to randomly evaluate each of 15 brands, relying on usual rating scales would have been too time-consuming. Real luxury consumers do not have much time for academic research: this justifies the choice of single binary questions for each evaluated brands instead of ratings on lengthy Likert scales. The same choice had already been adopted by the former studies on the international relevance of the rarity principle, examined above. Because of the number of missing values per respondent due to the randomness of the data collection procedure and in order to be fully in line with our main research objectives, the results were therefore averaged for each country, leading to aggregated data in which the 60 brands represented the observations and using the mean averages of the variables as a percentage. Contrary to the statistical methodology of former tests of the rarity principle, multiple regressions of the relationships between the dream value and awareness and penetration were not relied on here for three main reasons. First, multiple regressions are not suited to handle count data since they produce estimates that fall outside the 0–100 range, a situation which does not make concrete sense. Second, they ideally require a multivariate distribution which is very unlikely to hold in our case. Third, parameter estimates rely on the restrictive assumption of homoscedasticity which is rarely met in practice. Hence, we decided to rely on specialized models more suited for analyzing count data which avoid the aforementioned problems. Since, in our case, the conditional variance exceeds the conditional mean, a very restrictive assumption of Poisson regressions, we chose to perform more general and powerful binomial-negative regressions. Negative binomial regression is similar to regular multiple regression except that the dependent variable is an observed count that follows the negative binomial distribution. Based on the Poisson-gamma mixture distribution, negative binomial regression loosens the restrictive assumption that the conditional variance is equal to the conditional mean made by the Poisson model. In practice, the regression equations are very similar to those of multiple regression, except that we model the log of the response variable. The dispersion parameter in negative binomial regression does not affect the expected counts, but it does affect the estimated variance of the expected counts. The coefficients have an additive effect in the log (dream) scale and a multiplicative effect in the dream scale. Although the beta coefficients give the sign value of the incidence of the predictors' variables, the exponential form is often preferred as it can explain directly the relative increase or decrease in the dependent variable. For instance, a positive β1 value of 0.215 for awareness means that increasing by 1% awareness would lead to an increase by 0.215% in the logs of expected counts of the dream value of the brand, while holding the other variables in the model constant. Looking at the exponential value term, this implies in a more explicit manner that increasing awareness by one unit will induce an increase of exp. (0.215) = 1.240 or 24% in the dream value of the brand, while holding the other variables in the model constant. All analyses were in addition based on Bootstrapped estimates (5000 replications). Furthermore, we also performed systematic power analyses. Power represents the probability of rejecting a false null hypothesis, and is equal to one minus beta, beta being the probability of a type-II error, which occurs when a false null hypothesis is not rejected. Ideally, values greater than 0.90 are expected for power. In our case, results proved to be satisfactory with values for power ranging from snob effect (Leibenstein, 1950), also known as negative externalities (produced by high brand penetration), than their European counterparts, but for different reasons. That is, the United States produces worldly, successful luxury brands (e.g., Coach, Michael Kors, Marc Jacobs, Calvin Klein, and Ralph Lauren) that are positioned at lower price points than their European counterparts and often distributed in offprice outlets in an effort to extend their penetration (Solca, Grippo, & Lucarelli, 2017). This strategy may reflect the roots of U.S. culture and the American dream of a classless society, in which access to material happiness ideally is open to everyone. In contrast, French luxury brands (e.g., Chanel, Dior, and Yves Saint Laurent) take very high price positions and restrain their distribution network as an active signaling of their rather elitist view of luxury. As our research does not aim at investigating the possible intervening processes but assess (or not) the cross country validity of the rarity principle, we propose the following complementary hypothesis: H3. Although always negative, the impact of penetration on desirability varies by country. For instance, it should be lower in open societies, claiming to be classless such as the USA and higher in highly elitist countries such as France. 3.3. Sampling, brands selection and measurement For a strong test of the universality of the rarity principle, the sample interviewed across all countries should be both relevant and consistent. The selection of the samples of luxury buyers in each country thus relied on Internet panels, determined on the basis of respondents' self-declared purchases of a list of hedonic products, at a price above a threshold that would indicate luxury. These products appealed to both genders (e.g., a bottle of Champagne or wine for at least 100 Euros, shoes for men or women for at least 350 Euros, sunglasses for at least 350 Euros, jackets for men or women for at least 400 Euros). These prices reflected the median levels determined in an international study of luxury price thresholds (Kapferer & Laurent, 2016). On the whole, 3217 luxury buyers took part in the present survey. Through the use of quotas, each sample was representative of its country's luxury buyers in terms of geographical localization (e.g., main cities on the East and West U.S. coasts; major cities in France, Germany, Japan, and Brazil; main regional districts in China). Hence, and contrary to most previous researches relying on ad hoc young respondents, we decided to focus on respondents who had already bought luxury products in the last months before the survey, in order to ensure that these respondents were real consumers of luxury products, hence fully aware of what the pursuit of luxury means. In addition, all our samples comprise both men and women, are spread in terms of age and exhibit rather high monthly net income. As such, we acknowledge that our samples are not fully representative of all luxury products buyers (including for instance all those who buy only exceptionally), but rather representative and prototypical of affluent clients in each country, susceptible to be really concerned by luxury consumption, thus knowledgeable about luxury and the luxury brands too. Table 1 displays the sample characteristics in terms of size, age, gender, and net income. On average, 90% of the respondents lived in households of at least two people, and approximately one-third earned more than 5000 Euros per month (3.4% earned more than 15,000 Euros per month). Sixty worldly known and internationally distributed luxury brands were included, spanning a high diversity of luxury sectors and representing both products and services. These brands were drawn from lists of the members of Comité Colbert in France, Fondazione Altagamma in Italy, and their equivalents in the United Kingdom and Germany. These professional national organizations collectively promote the luxury brands of their own country, in their domestic market as well as abroad. Several Swiss and U.S. luxury brands also were included. Appendix 1 presents the list of 60 brands used in each country's survey. 42 Journal of Business Research 83 (2018) 38–50 J.-N. Kapferer, P. Valette-Florence Table 1 Gender, age and net income characteristics per countries. Size Gender Men Women Total Age 18–24 25–34 35–44 45–54 55–75 Total Net income per month < 3000 Euros 3000–4999 Euros 5000–9999 Euros 10,000–14,999 Euros > 15,000 Euros Total Country Total France USA China Brazil Germany Japan N % N % N 267 50,1% 266 49,9% 533 313 62,5% 188 37,5% 501 324 48,2% 348 51,8% 672 337 62,6% 201 37,4% 538 292 57,0% 220 43,0% 512 283 61,4% 178 38,6% 461 1816 56,5% 1401 43,5% 3217 N % N % N % N % N % N 74 13,9% 106 19,9% 117 22,0% 99 18,6% 137 25,7% 533 66 13,2% 145 28,9% 121 24,2% 99 19,8% 70 14,0% 501 86 12,8% 204 30,4% 188 28,0% 141 21,0% 53 7,9% 672 107 19,9% 196 36,4% 124 23,0% 80 14,9% 31 5,8% 538 91 17,8% 140 27,3% 127 24,8% 121 23,6% 33 6,4% 512 56 12,1% 179 38,8% 57 12,4% 80 17,4% 89 19,3% 461 480 14,9% 970 30,2% 734 22,8% 620 19,3% 413 12,8% 3217 N % N % N % N % N % N 203 38,1% 177 33,2% 88 16,5% 18 3,4% 16 3,0% 533 96 19,2% 142 36,1% 181 24,2% 59 11,8% 28 5,6% 501 206 30,6% 201 29,9% 162 24,1% 41 6,1% 15 2,2% 672 236 43,9% 160 29,7% 62 11,5% 18 3,3% 19 3,5% 538 117 22,9% 188 36,7% 144 28,1% 24 4,7% 13 2,5% 512 106 22,9% 169 36,6% 117 25,4% 32 6,9% 19 4,1% 461 964 29,9% 1037 32,2% 754 23,4% 192 5,9% 110 3,4% 3217 sometimes rather low in magnitude, all regression parameter estimates are statistically significant, all confidence intervals not incorporating zero. The rarity principle is indeed relevant worldwide. 0.87 up to 0.98. All analyses have been performed per country by means of Maximum Likelihood (ML) Estimation relying mainly on the R package1 and Stata 14. ML being subject to interpretation, standard R2 should be regarded with caution and hence are not reported. Hence, we decided to assess prediction by computing R2 on a replication sample. Due to the rather limited sample size (N = 60) per country, we opted for a K-fold random cross validation procedure. Hence, performing multiple random drawing (K = 1500) of 40 brands in order to estimate the predicted values on the remaining 20 brands in each country enabled us to compute mean R2 estimates on the replication samples. In addition, as stated above, while using count data regression, a directly analogous R2 for multiple regressions is not available. However, Cameron and Windmeijer (1996), and more recently Mbachu, Nduka, and Nja (2012), suggest relying on the deviance R-squared, which will be hence reported as a benchmark and another supplementary means for assessing the overall predictive power, along with a likelihood ratio chi-square test which provides a test of the overall model comparing this model to a “null” model without any predictors. 4.1. Checking the validity of the results Hence, with regard to our assessment of the universality of the relationship of brand awareness and brand penetration with the luxury dream, the results in Table 2 suggest a remarkable and similar pattern across all countries, whether mature or emerging, Eastern or Western. These findings do confirm the research hypotheses, H1 and H2. All countries (though the United States to a lesser extent than expected compared to the original research published in 1995) indicate that higher penetration rates negatively influence the brand dream power, whereas higher awareness reinforces it. Thus, unlike the two former studies run in Hong Kong and Singapore on convenience samples, which had disconfirmed the validity of the rarity principle in Asia, our study based on larger samples of real luxury buyers assess the international validity of the rarity principle. In addition, we notice that globally, the inhibitor effect of penetration is always lower than the catalyst effect of brand awareness. These results are striking, especially because we did not include small, poorly known brands in our final sample of 60 brands, nor did the sample feature masstige brands (Silverstein & Fiske, 2005) who use communication to create a halo of prestige while pursuing ‘growth without end’ (Schaefer & Kuehlwein, 2015, p 203). Including these types of brands would have accentuated the regression weights of both independent variables: (a) unknown brands cannot spark dreams while well known ones can (b) masstige brands being more accessible in price, have a less selective distribution, and thus enjoy a higher penetration rate while sparking less luxury dream. In the present study the rarity effect actually does affect all luxury brands, even the most iconic ones. 4. Main results Table 2 presents the results of all the negative binomial regressions run for each country separately, along with their corresponding K-fold random R2 and pseudo-R2. Moreover, all the likelihood ratio chi-square tests indicate a significant improvement over a “null” model as a baseline. They confirm our hypotheses: despite cultural differences between countries as well as maturity differences between markets the beta weights attached to the independent variables of the dream equation appear as predicted: positive impact of brand awareness on the luxury brand's dream value and negative impact of brand penetration. Although 1 glm.nb {MASS}. 43 Journal of Business Research 83 (2018) 38–50 J.-N. Kapferer, P. Valette-Florence Table 2 Negative binomial regression parameter estimates per country. France : Bootstrapped parameter estimates R² K-Fold=28.55%; R²deviance=30.05% Likelihood ratio Chi-square: 25.875; (df=2; Sig=.000) Intercept Penetration 95 % Confidence interval B Std. error Lower 15,397 ,145 3,1046 ,0288 Awareness ,215 ,0358 Negative binomial ,1 0 1 ,0246 21,482 Upper 9,313 ,201 ,088 ,145 ,285 ,0 6 3 ,1 6 3 Hypothesis test Exp(B) Wald ChiSquare S i g. 24,597 ,000 2,056E-07 95 % Confidence interval for Exp(B) L o we r U p pe r 4,681E-10 9,029E-05 25,296 ,000 ,865 ,818 ,915 36,011 ,000 1,240 1,156 1,330 USA: Bootstrapped parameter estimates R² K-Fold = 16.36%; R²deviance = 17.13% Likelihood ratio Chi-square: 14.360; (df=2; Sig=.000) Intercept PENETRATION 95 % Confidence Interval B 0,523 ,071 Std. error 1,4249 ,0157 AWARENESS ,083 ,0163 Negative Binomial , 05 1 ,0 1 6 0 Hypothesis Test Exp(B) Lower Upper Wald ChiSquare S i g. 3,316 2,270 0,135 ,713 ,086 ,055 ,063 ,105 , 0 28 ,0 9 4 5,926E-01 95 % Confidence Interval for Exp(B) L o we r U p pe r 3,630E-02 9,676E+00 3,988 ,046 ,931 ,918 ,946 7,171 ,007 1,086 1,065 1,111 China: Bootstrapped parameter estimates R² K-Fold = 37.36%; R²deviance = 40.57% Likelihood ratio Chi-square: 32.863; (df=2; Sig=.000) Intercept Penetration 95 % Confidence Interval B 1,644 ,036 Std. error 0,2452 ,0034 Awareness ,032 ,0034 Negative binomial ,0 4 0 , 01 5 8 Hypothesis Test Exp(B) Lower Upper Wald ChiSquare S i g. 1,163 2,124 44,944 ,000 ,052 ,012 ,012 ,044 ,0 1 8 , 0 87 5,175E+00 95 % Confidence Interval for Exp(B) L o w er U p pe r 3,200E+00 8,368E+00 3,830 ,050 ,965 ,949 ,988 29,562 ,000 1,033 1,012 1,045 Brazil: Bootstrapped parameter estimates R² K-Fold = 45.92%; R²deviance = 47.09% Likelihood ratio Chi-Square: 47.127; (df=2; Sig=.000) Intercept Penetration B Std. error 1,524 0,2632 ,045 ,0019 Awareness ,047 ,0033 Negative binomial ,0 1 5 , 0 09 2 95 % Confidence interval Hypothesis Test Lower Upper Wald ChiSquare S ig . 1,008 2,040 33,523 ,000 ,054 ,011 ,030 ,056 , 00 4 ,0 5 0 Exp(B) 4,590E+00 95 % Confidence Interval for Exp(B) L o we r U p p er 2,740E+00 7,689E+00 59,335 ,000 ,956 ,948 ,989 64,957 ,000 1,049 1,030 1,057 Germany:Bootstrappedparameterestimates R² K-Fold = 23.32%; R²deviance = 24.80% Likelihood ratio Chi-Square: 18.672; (df=2; Sig=.000) Intercept Penetration 95 % Confidence Interval B Std. error Lower 6,938 ,074 2,2693 ,0228 Awareness ,113 ,0263 Negative binomial ,0 6 6 ,0198 11,385 Upper 2,490 ,086 ,054 ,071 ,139 , 03 7 ,1 1 9 Hypothesis Test Exp(B) Wald ChiSquare Si g. 9,346 ,002 9,707E-04 95 % Confidence Interval for Exp(B) L ow e r U p pe r 1,136E-05 8,292E-02 5,798 ,016 ,928 ,918 ,947 18,627 ,000 1,120 1,074 1,149 Japan:Bootstrappedparameterestimates R² K-Fold = 22.04%; R²deviance = 23.39% Likelihood ratio Chi-square: 17.420; (df=2; Sig=.000) Intercept Penetration 95 % Confidence interval B 3,296 ,069 Std. error 2,3749 ,0175 Hypothesis test Exp(B) Lower Upper Wald ChiSquare Si g. 7,950 1,359 1,926 ,165 ,085 ,055 Awareness ,084 ,0265 ,070 ,126 Negative binomial , 01 4 , 0 0 87 , 00 3 ,0 43 3,705E-02 95 % Confidence interval for exp(B) L o we r U p pe r 3,526E-04 3,893E+00 2,896 ,089 ,933 ,919 ,946 7,850 ,005 1,087 1,073 1,135 NB 1: Figures in bold type and framed in black refer to France only NB 2: Figures in bold type and italics and framed in red refer to non different parameter estimates (Germany, Japan and US) NB 3: Figures in italics and underlined and framed in blue refer to non different parameter estimates (Brazil and China). Germany, the corresponding β is 0.275 inducing a R2 increase of 8%. Not surprisingly, Germany which holds a long tradition of manufacturing high-end luxury cars has the highest impact of luxury cars on dream, as luxury buyers are used to be in touch with, to possess and to drive them more than in any other countries. Ultimately, we also did the analysis without Ferrari and Rolls Royce which both enjoy having the smallest penetration in each country, the highest brand awareness level and also being held as the most “dreamable” cars in the world. This did not change the results which remain remarkably the same across all the countries. Hence, all the aforementioned methodological precautions give full support to our interpretations. Despite the similarities of the overall patterns though, some Now it could be argued that the above results are spuriously created by the presence of 12 luxury automobile brands within the sample of 60 luxury brands. These brands are by definition very expensive, thus have little penetration and spark high dreams. To offset this remark, an analysis holding cars as dummy variables was undertaken. This did not change the results since the overall pattern of regressions coefficients remains unchanged across the countries. More precisely, penetration still negatively impacts the dream, while awareness still shows a positive incidence on the dream. Being a luxury car always positively and significantly impacts the dream, resulting in an increase of R2 ranging from 4 to 8% (full results are available upon request, in order to preserve space). For instance, in 44 Journal of Business Research 83 (2018) 38–50 J.-N. Kapferer, P. Valette-Florence Table 3 Homogeneous subsets tests of negative binomial regression coefficients. Penetration Country Homogeneous subsets α = 0.05 1 France Germany USA Japan Brazil China Sig. 2 3 -0.145 -0.074 -0.071 -0.069 1.000 0.648 - 0.045 - 0.036 0.181 2 3 Awareness Country Homogeneous subsets α = 0.05 1 China Brazil USA Japan Germany France Sig. 0.032 0.047 0.083 0.084 0.113 0.185 0.115 differences exist, as predicted by H3. To assess the differences across countries, we relied on bias-corrected bootstrap difference tests (5000 replications) of regression coefficients across countries. Results strongly support hypothesis H3, showing that the impact of penetration on desirability varies by country. More precisely, we identified three groups based on the beta weights measuring the impact of awareness and penetration on the dream value of the brand: • • • China and Brazil – the two emerging markets of our study- exhibit very close beta weights (framed in blue, table 2); • Germany, Japan and US form another group (framed in red, table 2). These are both western and Asian countries, but mature markets; • France stands alone (framed in black, table 2). In addition, Table 3 displays the corresponding homogeneous subsets tests. There are also striking differences between countries (Tables 2 and 3): • The negative effect of penetration on the dream value is strongest in France. This is evidenced by the β2 value (measuring the impact of penetration on the logarithm of dream, β2 = − 0.145). If one now looks at the exponential value term (Exp β2 = 0.865), the result indicates that holding awareness constant, one increase of one unit in penetration would induce a decrease of 13.55% (1–0.865) in the dream value of the brand. This negative impact is far above the one of German clients (β2 = −0.74), Japanese clients (β2 = − 0.69) as well as US clients (β2 = −0.71). This is probably reflecting France's very elitist vision of luxury, as already identified by a research comparing attitudes toward luxury between 20 countries (Dubois, Laurent, & Czellar, 2005). Although competing against each other, French luxury brands such as Dior, Chanel, Hermès or Louis Vuitton collectively promote the same specific idea of what is luxury, based on three pillars of highest product quality, being very expensive and prestigious brands (Kapferer, 2015). France has never produced “accessible luxury” brands. Here luxury brands should not sell to too many people, otherwise they cannot claim to be luxury brands. This is a paradox for a country whose 1789 Revolution promoted • 45 0.215 1.000 equalitarianism. Yet many French luxury brands stress their legendary history, linked to France's former kings and emperor. Looking at these four countries altogether (France, Germany, USA, and Japan), luxury clients from these mature countries are all quite sensitive to higher brand penetration, all negatively, meaning that for them luxury growth needs to remain strictly under control, if the brand wants to sustain its feelings of exclusivity which underpin luxury desirability. Chinese and Brazilian luxury buyers also are negatively sensitive to the effect of penetration on the dream of luxury (respectively β2 = − 0.045 and β2 = − 0.036). These two negative and significant beta weights reflect the conspicuous role of luxury consumption in Asia (Chadha & Husband, 2007) as well as in fast moving emerging Latin American countries. Yet as indicated in Table 3, luxury buyers from these two emerging countries are less negatively sensitive to increased market penetration than their counterparts from mature countries. As discussed in the theoretical part of this article, in the Chinese culture the need for uniqueness is less strong. In a country where conformity is still rewarded, bandwagon effects are operating (Kastanakis & Balabanis, 2012). As a result brands have to reach higher levels of penetration to stimulate the snob effect. In the case of Brazil, one cannot invoke conformity pressures to explain the data. Rather the state of development of the luxury market. At this time, despite the importance of its population, Brazil is not yet a strong luxury market (Bain & Co, 2017): brands are still to be pushed if luxury consumption is to take off. It may be too early to witness snob effects, leading clients to abandon their luxury brands when their penetration is felt as excessive. The positive effect of awareness is by far the strongest in France (β1 = +0.215, impact on the logarithm of the brand dream value). In other words, it means that holding penetration constant, one increase of one unit in awareness would induce an increase of exp. (0.215) = 1.240 or 24% in the dream. The French love demonstrations of power where everyone knows you but few can access. Once again, German (β1 = + 0.113) and to a lower extent Japanese (β1 = +0.084) as well as US (β1 = + 0.083) luxury buyers are also sensitive to higher brand awareness. Journal of Business Research 83 (2018) 38–50 J.-N. Kapferer, P. Valette-Florence Table 4 Penetration and awareness threshold points by country. France: P* = 3 and A** = 88 USA: P = 6 and A = 91 Japan: P = 6 and A = 92 Germany: P = 6 and A = 92 Brazil: P = 29 and A = 87 China: P = 33 and A = 92 Brands below the threshold points Brioni Coach Donna Karan Ermenegildo Zegna Grey Goose Harry Winston Mandarin Marriott Martell Mikimoto Patek Philippe Peninsula Tom Ford N = 13 Brioni Boucheron Breitling Christian Louboutin Ermenegildo Zegna Guerlain Harry Winston Mandarin Martell Maserati Mauboussin Mikimoto Patek Philippe Peninsula Tod's N = 15 Brands always concerned by the dream equation Brands above the threshold points Brioni Aston Martin Boucheron Donna Karan Ermenegildo Zegna Grey Goose Guerlain Hyatt Mandarin Marriott Martell Maserati Mauboussin Patek Philippe Relais & Châteaux Tod's Tom Ford N = 17 Brioni Baccarat Boucheron Christian Louboutin Coach Donna Karan Ermenegildo Zegna Grey Goose Guerlain Harry Winston Hyatt Lexus Mandarin Marc Jacobs Maserati Mauboussin Mikimoto Patek Philippe Peninsula Relais & Châteaux Tod's Tom Ford N = 22 Brioni Baccarat Boucheron Breitling Coach Daslu Donna Karan Ermenegildo Zegna Guerlain Harry Winston Hennessy Hyatt Mandarin Marc Jacobs Marriott Martell Maserati Mauboussin Mikimoto Patek Philippe Peninsula Tod's Tom Ford N = 23 Brioni Aston Martin Baccarat Boucheron Breitling Burberry Cartier Coach Dolce & Gabbana Dom Perignon Donna Karan Ermenegildo Zegna Givenchy Grey Goose Harry Winston Hyatt Jaguar Mandarin Marc Jacobs Marriott Martell Mauboussin Mercedes Mikimoto Moet & Chandon Montblanc Patek Philippe Peninsula Prada Qeelin Ralph Lauren Ritz Carlton Shang Xia Tiffany Tod's Tom Ford Versace Yves Saint Laurent N = 38 Armani Audi BMW Bulgari Cadillac Chanel Dior Ferrari Gucci Hermès Lacoste Louis Vuitton Mercedes Omega Porsche Rolex Rolls Royce Swarovski N = 18 P* = Penetration threshold; A** = Awareness threshold; N = Number of brands below the threshold points. Brands in bold type are always below the threshold points whatever are the countries, whereas those in bold italics are always above the threshold points. Brands in italics (Qeelin and Shang Xia) are specific to China. • Chinese and Brazilian luxury buyers are also sensitive to the positive sample of 60 brands in each country. Now one might ask: above what level of brand awareness AND of market penetration is the dream equation significant, while for all brands below these awareness AND penetration levels, i.e. below both thresholds, the dream equation would not hold. To answer, systematic heuristic searches give these points displayed in Table 4, along with the corresponding brands below these points, that is to say, not yet affected by the impact of either awareness or penetration on the luxury brand dream value. Globally, and supporting previous results, three main clusters of countries emerge: effect of brand awareness on the luxury dream (logarithm) (respectively β1 = 0.047 and β1 = 0.032). But in comparison with their mature countries counterpart examined above, they are less sensitive to this positive effect of awareness on the dream of luxury. In the emerging countries, luxury diffusion is progressive: it is first bought by a minority, but this minority who travels is quite knowledgeable about the brands. As these consumers learn more about different luxury brands, they evaluate the best-known brands more negatively as uniqueness-seeking becomes a more important goal. (Zhan & He, 2012). • France still stands aside the other countries. The threshold point for 4.2. Threshold analyses: Diagnosing which brands are most concerned penetration is the lowest among all countries (P = 3%), as well as the threshold point for brand awareness (A = 88%), also smaller than the other western developed countries. France holds a very long-lasting relationship with luxury brands and promotes a quite aristocratic and elitist vision of luxury (Dubois et al., 2005): as a result, luxury brands' dream value is soon negatively impacted by penetration. As shown in the first column of Table 4, the dream equation (in other words the rarity principle) is impacting the great majority of the brands (47/60 Ultimately, and mirroring recent techniques performed in mediational analyses (Spiller, Fitzsimons, Lynch, & Mcclelland, 2013) relying on the Jonson-Neyman point (1936), we performed a threshold analysis with the aim of uncovering the threshold points related to the impact of BOTH awareness and penetration on the luxury brand dream value. How does this relate to former analyses examined above? The nonlinear regressions - sources of Table 2- were estimated across the whole 46 Journal of Business Research 83 (2018) 38–50 J.-N. Kapferer, P. Valette-Florence • • our results confirm that the rarity principle is relevant to luxury buyers across countries, Eastern and Western, emerging and mature. As expected from the theoretical discussion, a positive and significant effect of awareness on the luxury brand's dream, as well as a negative effect of penetration, emerged. The discrepancy with the two disconfirming former Asian studies (run in Hong Kong and Singapore) can be explained by variations in the nature of their samples (small and convenience). When the sample consists of real luxury consumers, selected on the basis of the same behavioral criteria (buying specific products priced above a certain level) greater penetration leads to lower desirability. In all countries, luxury exists because not everybody can access it. Greater brand penetration causes the luxury brand to change its status and suffer negative externalities, similar to those that result from the presence of counterfeits (Grossman & Shapiro, 1988). The brand no longer fully acts as a signal of distinction or the superiority of the owner; instead, it becomes an integrative means for followers to mimic the tastes of the rich (Han et al., 2010). When too many people buy a luxury brand, the elites abandon those options and seek to recreate their symbolic distance from followers (Amaldoss & Jain, 2005): this is called the snob effect. Yet the happy many hope that luxury remains accessible and are not bothered by its increased diffusion; the happy few clearly do not share this vision. Beyond this overall picture, we find some idiosyncrasies across different countries. In contrast with Dubois and Paternault's (1995) initial findings, we find a significant yet lower negative impact of penetration on the luxury dream in the U.S. sample. This discrepancy may reflect the impact of the successful U.S. luxury brands which have been launched since then: they compete through lower price points, e-commerce sales as well as extensive outlet networks. Doing so they promote a more accessible vision of luxury, at least more accessible than the vision of their European counterparts, where more penetration is less of a problem than for instance in France, up to a tipping point where they do lose distinctiveness (Solca et al., 2017). The other mature countries follow the same rules quite similarly, which is remarkable since we also included Japan. Finally, there is a homogeneous group made of emerging countries, Brazil and China behaving more in the same way compared to the remaining mature countries. In these two countries the luxury market is more recent. Consumers have to learn. Bandwagon effects prevail over the snob effect: this is why -in these two countriespresent clients are only slightly negatively sensitive to luxury brands' growing penetration rates. or 78%). Very few luxury brands (13) are not yet subject to the threats implied by the rarity principle. The latter brands should invest in growing their dream: they still lack saliency (deficit of brand awareness) and visibility (deficit of commercial presence and market penetration). These brands are bespoke brands (at least in this country), such as Brioni (expensive suits for men), E. Zegna, Patek Philippe, Tom Ford, Mikimoto pearls, or D. Karan and The Peninsula Hotel which opened only recently in Paris. A second group comprises the three remaining developed countries (USA, Germany, Japan), with almost identical threshold points for awareness and penetration. For these countries the penetration threshold point turns around 6% and the threshold of awareness around 92%. Compared to France's extremely elitist vision, those countries don't have such constraints. Consequently, penetration has to be higher before it can damage the dream. Noticeably, the same brands still need to boost their dream by means of more penetration and more awareness (Brioni, Patek, Zegna). Lastly, Brazil and China belong to a third group, characterized by much higher thresholds of penetration (P ≥ 23%) along with a rather higher threshold of awareness (A ≥ 87%). Indeed, in these developing countries, the luxury market is growing, step by step (Chadha & Husband, 2007). It has not diffused too much below the boundaries of the upper middle class: as a consequence, at an aggregate level, penetration –as measured within this sample of luxury buyers – has to reach a higher level before damaging the dream. This is why in China 38 brands among the 60 (63.3%) still need to grow their penetration and awareness: the rarity principle does not impact them yet, they are perceived as too confidential to create enough value, enough luxury dream. The number of such brands is also high in Brazil (23/60 or 38.3%). Globally, across all countries, three brands are not creating enough dream and are not subject to the impact either of awareness nor penetration. Brioni and Ermenegildo Zegna are still far too confidential than the other brands encompassed within this research and hence are not suffering any form of excessive penetration. The same reasoning seems to apply for the high-end luxury manufacturer Patek Philippe. These brands have hence still room to develop in all countries (except Switzerland) whatever their dream level is. On the contrary, across all six countries, there are eighteen luxury brands on which bear the Damocles' sword, the rarity principle, implying a negative impact of penetration on the brand dream power, holding awareness constant. These brands are Armani, Audi, BMW, Bulgari, Cadillac, Chanel, Dior, Ferrari, Gucci, Hermès, Lacoste, Louis Vuitton, Mercedes, Omega, Porsche, Rolex, Rolls Royce and Swarovski: they stand always above the two thresholds. They are what Solca et al. (2013) call the “luxury mega-brands” with high revenues, extended penetration and visibility. The brand managers of these brands should be aware of the risks and start at least stopping the retail expansion if not downsizing the retail network. The presence of Ferrari among the brand most concerned by the dream equation could be a surprise. Isn't this brand starving the market by limiting its production of automobiles? The answer is that only two thirds of Ferrari operating profits are attributable to automobiles and engines. A third is produced by media rights and also the multiplication of licenses (Saviolo, 2011). All around the world, Ferrari megastores sell licensed articles (apparel, belts, T shirts, eyewear, watches, toys, mugs,...) to the masses: their proliferation could dilute the halo of exclusivity of the brand. 5.2. Implications for management: Shrink to grow? This research confirms the paradox: The more desirable a luxury brand is, the more it sells. The more it sells, the less desirable it becomes. As a luxury brand expands its sales, its dream value gets diluted by greater penetration. A luxury brand cannot invoke dreams if it is too unknown or if its brand penetration is too high. In operational terms, these results confirm that managing a luxury brand requires sensitivity to the different parameters fueling the dream value of a luxury brand. The rarity principle has proven valid across the Eastern and Western markets analyzed in this study. A luxury brand might confront various situations that require different distribution and communication responses. For example: • Low brand awareness, below the threshold, in which case the luxury brand cannot perform its signaling function. Regardless of the quality or exceptionality of the product or service, the brand cannot leverage the renown of its name as an essential marker of value among consumers who are not buyers but who nevertheless might recognize the brand displayed by a luxury owner. In this case, it is time to invest in communication, going beyond the core target market. 5. Conclusion and discussion 5.1. Theoretical contributions Overall, our three hypotheses are confirmed. Rooted in both commodity theory (Brock, 1968) as well as need for differentiation theory, 47 Journal of Business Research 83 (2018) 38–50 J.-N. Kapferer, P. Valette-Florence • As • • • • 2 most expensive lines. Chanel thus overinvests in advertising its most expensive jewelry items. Finally, luxury brands growing through accessible extensions should do so outside their core business while also launching highly publicized, expensive, limited editions of their core products. Hermès, to increase its market penetration and attract new consumers, sells silk shawls at 350 euros and silk ties at 150 euros. But it also strictly limits the volume of its iconic leather bags (leather is Hermès's core business), charges very high prices for them, and controls their retail presence tightly (Kapferer & ValetteFlorence, 2016a). awareness increases, luxury brands should open new stores progressively. There is no need to “burn the brand” through excess communication, an ubiquitous Internet presence, or too many store openings in the same city or district. The optimal number of shops is specific to the product category: for fragrance brands, a frequent purchase, consumers may want shops close enough to their home or workplace, but this demand is less pertinent for men's luxury suits. High penetration also results from an excess of accessible lines (licenses, accessories) or counterfeits. The essence of luxury is rarity, which applies not only to the product but also to buyers. Selling to many consumers disrupts the signaling function and price justification for luxury. Luxury brands therefore must regain their selectivity by reducing the number of shops, refraining from entering China's Tier 3 cities, reinvesting in their core business, emphasizing a premium strategy, and increasing the average price of their products. Then, they can attempt to reengage with cultural elites, such as by cooperating with avant-garde artists or renowned designers to endow the brand with a renewed image. They could also create a secret private club for their best clients, allowing them access to exceptional events organized for them by the brand. If a brand becomes too diffused, it still can grow its sales and profits, but the core luxury customers may leave, which limits the value of a key asset of any luxury brand, namely, its clientele as a source of prestige. In this situation, some brands may decide to shrink their penetration in order to regain desirability. Others prefer to change their business model, leave the luxury market, and grow their distribution further. For example, Mauboussin jeweler, a formerly prestigious brand, now targets the bridge market by extending its distribution while also reducing its average prices, on the basis of a low cost business model. Luxury brands can grow their sales by appealing to larger yet lower income consumer segments, but the risk is that they erode their brand equity among the elite consumers who created their success initially. To slow down this negative process, some brands use “differential rarity” tactics, such as creating multiple layers of subbrands, each positioned at a certain price level, with distinct distribution patterns. Armani is a typical case: Its full range cascades from the very exclusive Armani Privé and Giorgio Armani lines, to Armani Collezione (sold in multi-brand stores) and Emporio Armani with its own stores, to the widely distributed line of Armani jeans. Armani Privé maintains a purposefully very scarce distribution, as does Giorgio Armani, whereas Armani jeans are sold through a wholesale network. Such sub-branding practices raise a question2: If luxury brands can create low-tier sub-brands that reach more people while increasing awareness (without hurting the dream value of the original high-end luxury brand itself), why not just penetrate more (which increases their profits) and create multiple product lines (lower vs. high) for the same brand? Some brands have been doing so in China; they launched in Tier 1 cities (Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Shenzhen), then opened stores in Tier 2 cities (regional hubs), and finally searched for new clients by opening stores in Tier 3 cities, selling specific product lines. This never-ending expansion of their penetration and store presence has a cost though, in that they risk seeming like provincial brands to consumers living in Tier 1 cities. Furthermore, consumers living in provincial towns like to purchase luxury brands when they visit Tier 1 cities or travel to Korea, Japan, or Europe. They also can buy online. Another danger associated with creating lower priced lines relates to accessibility. As wealth grows worldwide, if a luxury brand wants to remain a luxury brand, it must always remain partly inaccessible, to be dreamed about. To do so, luxury brands may need to increase their average price points and focus their communication on the 5.3. Limitations and further research A first question arises about the external validity and generalizability of the results of this research to more mainstream targets. Amaldoss and Jain (2005), relying on Bourdieu's (1984) theory of taste competition, show that the consumers they call “followers” create negative externalities for a luxury brand; demand from these consumers increases sales but reduces prestige. Brand penetration may not have the same deleterious effects among followers, for whom buying a very well-known and diffused brand does no harm, because they seek a safe visa of good taste that will be widely recognized, rather than an exclusive brand. Followers want to buy luxury brands that reduce their perceived risk by offering high brand recognition and wide penetration. This rationale underpins the bandwagon effect. Does the luxury dream equation thus change when applied to followers? But even so, the long term profits of luxury brands depend mostly on the 20% of clients making 70% of their sales: they are the HNWIs, high net worth individuals. It is crucial that luxury brands preserve these HNWI's perception that they are not over-diffused. The rarity principle may not also apply to millennials, young adults, as long as they do not work and have not entered social competition, moving up the ladder, known to fuel the need for positional goods, distinctive brands. Also, further research should explore the validity of the rarity principle for non-luxury brands that still are highly specialized and that consider their clientele a type of elite, such as Nespresso or the North Face. A second point relates to the level of analysis. Although for methodological reasons individual analyses were not feasible, one might not want to focus exclusively in the future on aggregate data. Such analyses will give finer insights as for the roots of dream at the individual level, the price to pay being an increased length of the questionnaires while relying on well-established Likert scales, thus having less probability to interview real luxury buyers. Moreover and although we took great care in selecting countries and luxury brands, obviously increasing both their number is deemed necessary in order to give greater universality and credence to our results. Ultimately, and given the differences in terms of penetration between countries, a more precise selection of the full spectrum of luxury buyers could be worth undertaking. A final avenue for improvement is related to adding more predictors within the dream equation. Indeed, although statistically significant, regression parameter estimates are for some countries rather low, pointing out additional explanatory variables could be worth investigating. As a matter of fact, although the R2 ranges from 14% to 47% between countries, they are all below 50%. For instance, tradition, which is an important variable in close connection with authenticity (Morhart, Malar, Guevremontg, Girardin, & Grohmann, 2015) could be worth investigating along with fashion which has proven to interplay with the luxury perception (Kapferer & Valette-Florence, 2016b). These rather stimulating potentialities are hence left for further empirical investigations. Nonetheless, we still believe our approach remains innovative on both academic and managerial sides. From a theoretical point of view, it confirms the universal character of rarity theory, while contrasting its impact according to the nature of the market and the economic development of countries. In addition, from an operational point of view, and thanks to more sophisticated statistical procedures than the ones The authors thank an anonymous reviewer for raising this question. 48 Journal of Business Research 83 (2018) 38–50 J.-N. Kapferer, P. Valette-Florence Acknowledgements previously relied on, our results give managers very insightful recommendations with regards to the relative thresholds activating the dream equation per country and per concerned brands. Ultimately, we wish our work to be a first step toward a better understanding of luxury branding management with a worldwide outlook. The authors would like to thank all the reviewers for their constructive comments made on previous versions of this manuscript. This article is dedicated to the late Professor Bernard Dubois who first proposed the dream equation more than twenty years ago. Appendix A Appendix 1 List of brands. 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He has published numerous articles in highly recognized scientific journals in the fields of luxury branding, consumer behavior and multivariate data analysis. 50