智能手机2020年5月跟踪月报 China Smartphone Tracking Monthly Report of May,2020 5月国内手机销量同比回落, 预计Q2国内整体向好、海外承压 China‘s mobile phone sales fell in May compared with 2019 Expected to improve the overall domestic on Q2, but had overseas pressure Summarized by Leon 202/7/7 1 Simmtech Confidential Core Points China High-frequency data tracking of mobile phones 1. Mobile phone shipments declined again YoY in May, benefiting from 618 promotion in June, which is expected to turn into a reg ular one, maintaining the positive forecast of domestic sales volume in the second quarter: According to the data of China Information and Communication Institute, the total shipments of domestic mobile phone market in May reached 33.759 million units, 19.10% MoM, -11.84% YoYY and fell again after the positive growth in April: In the first five months, the total shipments of the domestic mobile phone market reached 12,444 million units, with a YoY rate of -18.00%; Looking ahead to June, 618 sales promotion is expected to drive mobile phone sales ,We judge that compared with the pressure caused by the epidemic in the first quarter, the second quarter will be significantly improved, maintaining the forecast of single-digit YoY decline in the overall domestic sales in the second quarter 2. Channels, part of the online channel sales slipped, speculated that part of the requirements to 618: after part of the online channel may (huawei, glory, millet, oppo, vivo, samsung Tmall official flagship store, similarly hereinafter) 761,300 units, sales dropped 21.76%, YoY decline slightly large plate, considering the electric business platform in May 618 activities for the preheating, we hypothesized that some requirements after extended to 618 3. As far as 5G is concerned, the trend of increasing penetration rate will not be changed, price level will continue to decline , and sales of huawei and xiaomi hot style models will continue to be in the lead: domestic 5G mobile phone penetration rate remains on the positive side. According to data from the China information and communication institute, in May, 5G mobile phone shipments totaled 15.6443 million units, with a penetration rate of 46.3%, among which some online channels sold 326,800 units, with a penetration rate of 42.9%.Major Android brands launched new 5G phones, focusing on flagship models in the first quarter, while focusing on medium and low-end models in April-May. In May, the overall average price of 5G phones in some online channels was 3,666 yuan, with a month-to-month decline of -15%. Currently, the lowest 5G phones have dropped to 1000-2000 yuan. In terms of best-selling models, Huawei maintained strong sales in product matrix and individual products. In May, among the TOP5 models series of some online channels, huawei had 4 and xiaomi 1, Which are Huawei Nova 7 series, Huawei Honor 30 series, Xiaomi 10 series, Huawei P40 series and Huawei Honor X10 series Global and regional mobile phone trends 1. The COVID-19 in China is basically under control, and demand is expected to recover quickly. According to IDC, China shipped 66.6 million mobile phones in 2020Q1, -20.4% YoY. According to data from China Information and Communication Research Institute, in April, the domestic mobile phone shipments reached 41.728 million units, with a MoM +92% YoY +14%; in May, the domestic mobile phone shipments reached 33.759 million units, with a MoM -19% YoY -12%; in June, it is estimated that the YoY growth rate of 618 promotion is expected to return to positive. At present, the COVID-19 situation in China is basically under control. The overall situation of domestic electronic enterprises has basically returned to normal. We maintain the forecast of single-digit YoY decline in domestic Q2 sales and a decline of 5-10% in the annual dimension. 2. Overseas production resumed after COVID-19 and the sales volume in the second quarter is expected to reach the bottom: according to IDC data, 276 million mobile phones were shipped worldwide in 2020Q1, 11.3% YoY; Among them, the domestic was -20.4% YoY and the overseas was -7.9% YoY, mainly because the COVID-19 situation in the first quarter was concentrated in China, and the overseas COVID-19 situation developed rapidly since the end of the first quarter and the beginning of the second quarter. Overseas mobile phone industry chain is mainly involved in Europe and the United States (semiconductor, etc.), Japan and South Korea (panels, storage, MLCC, etc.), southeast Asia (OEM, etc.), currently the main countries and areas have gradually entered the stage of return to work after the outbreak and production, but still need to be climbing capacity, we predict the global 2 handset shipments 30 ~ 40% YoY decline in Q2, Q3 and Q4 decline is expected to narrow, 10 ~ 15% decline throughout the year. Simmtech Confidential 3. Brands base, brands with low overseas share and high online share are relatively less affected. From the perspective of regional Core Points There are many voices about the outward migration of the anti-globalization industry chain recently. We are still optimistic about the important role of domestic consumer electronics companies in the global supply chain, and believe that the outward migration is still a long-term dimension of 5-10 years: 1. China is the world's largest exporter of consumer electronics now, accounting for nearly 90% of the global output of smart phones. China not only absorbs the huge domestic demand, but also exports 70% of the domestic smart phones to the global market. Chinese enterprises are widely distributed in the latter part of the industrial chain and dominate in the production and assembly of some components. 2. In the short term, Based on national industrial security consideration under COVID-19, basic manufacturing necessities (related) or there is a property may be industrial chain relocation, but the industrial globalization division of labor is clear, after nearly 40 years of evolution, Chinese vendors have efficiency, cost, supply chain and other significant advantages, in the short term for the outsourcing is not the economy; In addition, the escalation of COVID-19 may cause a global economic downturn and further slow down the process of industrial chain relocation in the short term. 3. In the medium and long term, based on the fact that costs have risen in recent years, tariffs have gone up and local efficiency needs have been served, part of the industrial chain and assembly links of consumer electronics have a tendency to move out, but the destination needs a long time to be able to undertake. On the other hand, from the perspective of the long-term development of Chinese enterprises, benefiting from the bonus of engineers, the domestic consumer electronics industry will also take the initiative to carry out structural upgrading and transformation. Domestic enterprises will focus more on the links of the industrial chain with higher added value and move out some industries with low added value. Industry dynamic tracking 1. Apple opened WWDC2020 and released its own Mac SoC chip, updating five software systems: 2. For Androids , after the intensive flagship new product release in the first quarter, new phones of various manufacturers mainly focus on mid-end 5G models in April-May. In May, Huawei released Changyou Z and honor X10, with the starting price below 2000 yuan. Xiaomi released Redmi 10X with a starting price of 1599 yuan, which is the lowest 5G model at present. Vivo released the iQOO Z1, starting at 2,198 yuan.We are optimistic that the annual 5G penetration rate will rise and the price segment will fall. From the perspective of a longer cycle of one to two years, it is estimated that 5G and other upgrading demands can still support the high-speed growth of the industry 3. 5G SoC reaches the middle and low end in an all-round way. The "three-battle world" of mobile phone's main chip: From May to June, Qualcomm released mid-order 5G Snapdragon 768 and low-order 5G Snapdragon 690. MTK released medium-order Breguet 1000Plus and low-order Breguet 820, 5G SoC to the middle and low end. The main chip of mobile phone forms a "three-body world" : the first world chip provides for itself, reduces maintenance and strikes, including Apple, Huawei, Samsung, etc.; Second world standard leading, brand premium, typical representatives such as Qualcomm; The third world is dominated by dark forests and the market. Mediatek, Unisplendour, ASR and other middle and low-end applications are the main ones. 5G changes are expected to bring development opportunities. Key Companies 1. Among the manufacturers of terminal mobile phones, we tracked the financial and sales data of Apple, Xiaomi and TECNO, and concluded that Apple's brand and product strength are still leading with strong user stickiness. Although its short-term performance is affected by COVID-19, the long-term growth drivers including wearables and software services are expected to remain unchanged. Xiaomi's domestic share bottomed out, 5G new phones 3 showed bright performance, low inventory level, decentralized distribution in many countries and regions, and high proportion of online channels also made the impact of COVID-19 relatively Simmtech Confidential CONTENTS 目录 1. 2. 3. 4. China High-frequency data tracking of mobile phones Global and regional mobile phone trends Industry dynamic tracking Key Companies 4 Simmtech Confidential Domestic Shipments Declined Again YoY, 5G Penetration Continued to Improve in May According to data from China Information and Communication Research Institute, in May 2020, the total shipments of the domestic mobile phone market reached 33.759 million units, with a MoM rate of -19.10% and a YoY rate of -11.84%. After a positive YoY growth in April, the total shipments declined again. In the first five months, the total shipments of the domestic mobile phone market reached 12,444 million units, with a YoY rate of -18.00%;5G mobile phone penetration rate maintained a good trend, with 15.643,000 units shipped in May, accounting for 46.3%.In the first five months, 46.085 million 5G mobile phones were shipped, accounting for 37.0%. We judge that there was some demand for replenishment of inventory through channels in April, which fell slightly in May. Benefiting from 618 promotion in June, it is expected to regain the positive status, maintain the positive forecast of domestic sales in the second quarter, and the YoY decline in Q2 is expected to narrow to single digit. At present, the epidemic situation in China is basically under control, and the overall domestic electronic enterprises have basically returned to normal. Most overseas countries and regions entered the stage of gradual resumption of work and production, the second quarter is expected to hit the bottom of sales. 5 Simmtech Confidential Online sales are less affected by the COVID-19, and the proportion of brands online is differentiated According to historical data, the online sales of domestic smart phones account for about 30% of the total sales volume, among which Xiaomi accounts for a relatively high proportion while OV accounts for a relatively high proportion low, Huawei, apple moderate By brand, Huawei (including honor) accounted for about 30% of online sales in 2019, Xiaomi accounted for about 60%, OPPO, Vivo online sales accounted for about 10%, and Apple online sales accounted for about 40%. From the perspective of different channels, JD, Tmall and Suning respectively accounted for 50%, 24% and 5% in April 2018, among which Tmall flagship brands, The store accounts for more than half of Tmall sales;In addition, the official mall of Apple, Xiaomi and Huawei accounted for more than 10% in total. We looked at the monthly sales of the major Android brands (HOVMS) in some online channels. See next page for details. 6 Simmtech Confidential sales volume of some online channels declined MoM, it is speculated that some demand was extended to 618 In May Sales: In May, the sales volume of some online channels of smart phones (huawei, Honor, xiaomi, oppo, vivo, Samsung Tmall official flagship store, below is same) was 761,300 units, with a MoM decline of 21.76% and a slight drop of expected. Considering that the e-commerce platform warmed up the 618 activity in May, we speculate that some of the demand was extended to 618 Brand Base Huawei Tmall official flagship store (including Honor) was 478,200 units, down 21.06% MoM and the online share was 62.81%, up 0.56% from last month. Xiaomi's Tmall official flagship store sold 164,900 units, down 24.96% MoM, and its online share was 21.65%, down 0.93% MoM OPPO Tmall official flagship store was 43,200, up 0.20% MoM, and the online share was 5.67%, up 1.24% MoM. Vivo Tmall official flagship store were 69,400 units, down 29.07% MoM and the online share was 9.12%, down 0.94% MoM Samsung Tmall official flagship store was 5,700 units, down 14.16% MoM, and the online share was 0.74%, up 0.07% from the previous month. 7 Simmtech Confidential Average price of some online channels dropped slightly compared with the previous month the new machines went from flagship machines to the middle and low end In May Average Price In May, the average price of some online channels of smart phones was 2,426 yuan, down 4.03% MoM; Major mobile phone manufacturers in the first quarter of the intensive release of flagship new phones, the price has increased compared with previous years, after the inventory of old models, the sales of new models increased, the average price of online mobile phones in March, April were slightly increased; In the second quarter, new phones were released in the middle and low end, and the average price of online mobile phones fell slightly in May Brand Base The average prices of Samsung, Huawei, OPPO, Vivo and Xiaomi were 5,532 yuan, 2,606 yuan, 2,595 yuan, 1,986 yuan and 1,937 yuan respectively 8 Simmtech Confidential 5G mobile phones Sales in some online channels dropped slightly in May the penetration rate continued to rise Sales Volume In May, sales of some online channels of 5G mobile phones reached 326,800 units, down 4.47% MoM. Accounting for 42.92% of the total mobile phone online sales volume, the penetration rate continues to increase Brand Base huawei's Tmall official flagship store (including Honor) reached 216,300 5G units, up 0.42% MoM, and the online share was 66.19% Xiaomi Tmall official flagship store sold out 72,600 5G units, down 9.70% MoM, and the online share was 22.21%. OPPO Tmall official flagship store was 15,200 5G units, up 23.51% MoM, and the online share was 4.65%. Vivo Tmall official flagship store were 19,900 5G units, down 32.01% MoM, and the online share was 6.10%. Samsung Tmall reached 28,000 5G units, down 41.01% MoM, with an online share of 0.84% 9 Simmtech Confidential Average price of some online channels for 5G mobile phones dropped MoM reflecting the continuous downward trend in price In May Average Price In May, the average price of some online channels for 5G mobile phones was 3,666 yuan, down 15.10% MoM, reflecting the continuous downward trend of 5G price segment. Brand Base The average prices of Samsung, OPPO, Huawei, Xiaomi and Vivo by brand were 7,067, 4,012, 3,767, 3,295 and 3,194 yuan respectively. The average price of some online channels of major brands 5G showed a MoM decline, mainly because the price segment of 5G models continued to decline. As of May, the average price segment of 5G models with the lowest price of Xiaomi reached 1000-2000 yuan, that of Huawei, Oppo and Vivo reached 2000-3000 yuan, and that of Samsung reached 3000-5000 yuan 10 Simmtech Confidential Some best-selling models of 5G mobile phones in online channels in May: Huawei has many models and high sales volume In May, the sales of the TOP5 models in some online channels of 5G mobile phones were ranked as Huawei Nova 7 series, Huawei Honor 30 series, Xiaomi 10 series, Huawei P40 series and Huawei Honor X10 series, with sales of 6.88, 5.25, 4.13, 3.69 and 25,800 units respectively Huawei's flagship Mate series, P series, mid-range NOVA series, mid-range Enjoy series and sub-brand Honor V series, X series and digital series have all launched 5G models, with relatively complete product layout and leading sales. Xiaomi takes its main digital series and its sub-brand Redmi K series as its 5G models. In addition, the new Redmi 10X series launched in May is featured by low price and leads the sales of single models. OPPO's 5G models include the Find series, Reno series and Ace series, while Vivo's 5G models include the NEX and iQOO flagship series as well as the mid-end X series, low-end S series and Z series 11 Simmtech Confidential CONTENTS 目录 1. 2. 3. 4. China High-frequency data tracking of mobile phones Global and regional mobile phone trends Industry dynamic tracking Key Companies 12 Simmtech Confidential China: The COVID-19 is basically under control And demand is expected to recover quickly According to IDC, China shipped 66.6 million mobile phones in 2020Q1, -20.4% YoY; According to the data of China Ict Institute, in April, the domestic mobile phone shipments reached 41.728 million units, with a MoM +92% YoY+14%; in May, the domestic mobile phone shipments reached 33.759 million units, with a MoM -19% and a YoY-12%; in the first five months, the total domestic mobile phone market shipments reached 12.444 million units, with a YoY -18%. At present, the epidemic situation in China is basically under control. The overall situation of domestic electronic enterprises has basically returned to normal. We maintain the domestic Q2 sales forecast singledigit YoY decline, the annual dimension decline of 5~10%. 13 Simmtech Confidential Global: Short-term demand remains under pressure, with domestic demand outperforming overseas for 2020 According to IDC, 276 million mobile phones were shipped worldwide in 2020Q1, down 11.3% YoY.Among them, the domestic epidemic fell by 20.4% YoY, and the overseas epidemic fell by 7.9%. This was mainly due to the fact that the epidemic in the first quarter was concentrated in China, and the overseas epidemic began to develop rapidly from the end of the first quarter to the beginning of the second quarter The overseas demand side may repeat the weakening domestic demand in the first quarter, and the impact extent needs to be continuously observed . Our preliminary forecast, in the second quarter affected by the epidemic overseas under pressure, global sales fell 30 ~ 40%, with Europe and the United States and other countries gradually into the epidemic overseas return to work after the production stage, we think the downstream demand side will gradually recover, three or four quarter is expected to gradually recover, throughout the year to see mobile phone sales or fell 10 ~ 15%, which is expected to be superior to domestic overseas 14 Simmtech Confidential Brand Base: Brands with a high proportion of overseas sales have a greater impact We looked at the percentage of sales of major brands outside of China Samsung and Apple accounted for a relatively high proportion of overseas sales, accounting for 99% and 83% respectively in 2019 Among domestic brands, Huawei and Xiaomi are highly internationalized. However, due to GMS restrictions, huawei's overseas share has decreased to 42% since 2019. Xiaomi continues to expand in India and Europe, and its overseas sales share has increased to 67% in 2019.OPPO and Vivo made slower progress for overseas , accounting for 45% and 39% of overseas sales respectively in 2019. In our opinion, brands with a high proportion of overseas sales will be more affected. From the perspective of the whole year 2020, Samsung and Apple may decline by 15-20% YoY, Huawei by 20-30% YoY due to the contraction of overseas market, and Xiaomi, OPPO and Vivo by 5-15% YoY. 15 Simmtech Confidential Region Base: 2019 China is the largest market, while India and Europe still have positive growth Region Base: In 2019, 377 million units were sold in Greater China, accounting for 27% of the global total. In 2017-19, CAGR-7.9%; In 2019, 325 million units were sold in other regions of Asia Pacific, accounting for 24% of the global sales. In 2017-19, CAGR accounted for 3.9%. India accounted for over 40% of the sales in other regions of Asia Pacific. In 2019, it sold 239 million units in Europe, accounting for 17% of the global total. In 2017-19, it sold 6.4% of the CAGR In addition, sales in North America, the Middle East and Africa and Latin America were 152/142/139M respectively 16 Simmtech Confidential Optimistic about the importance of domestic consumer electronics companies in the global supply chain There are many voices about the outward migration of the anti-globalization industry chain recently. We are still optimistic about the important role of domestic consumer electronics companies in the global supply chain, and believe that the outward migration is still a long-term dimension of 5-10 years China is the world's largest exporter of consumer electronics now, accounting for nearly 90% of the global output of smart phones. China not only absorbs the huge domestic demand, but also exports 70% of the domestic smart phones to the global market. Chinese enterprises are widely distributed in the latter part of the industrial chain and dominate in the production and assembly of some components. In the short term, Based on national industrial security consideration under COVID-19, basic manufacturing necessities (related) or there is a property may be industrial chain relocation, but the industrial globalization division of labor is clear, after nearly 40 years of evolution, Chinese vendors have efficiency, cost, supply chain and other significant advantages, in the short term for the outsourcing is not the economy; In addition, the escalation of COVID-19 may cause a global economic downturn and further slow down the process of industrial chain relocation in the short term In the medium and long term, based on the fact that costs have risen in recent years, tariffs have gone up and local efficiency needs have been served, part of the industrial chain and assembly links of consumer electronics have a tendency to move out, but the destination needs a long time to be able to undertake. On the other hand, from the perspective of the long-term development of Chinese enterprises, benefiting from the bonus of engineers, the domestic consumer electronics industry will also take the initiative to carry out structural upgrading and transformation. Domestic enterprises will focus more on the links of the industrial chain with higher added value and move out some industries with low added value 17 Simmtech Confidential CONTENTS 目录 1. 2. 3. 4. China High-frequency data tracking of mobile phones Global and regional mobile phone trends Industry dynamic tracking Key Companies 18 Simmtech Confidential Industry dynamics: Android 5G SoC drops to the middle and low end 5G SoC drops to the middle and low end In May and June, Qualcomm released mid-end 5G Snapdragon 768 and low-end 5G Snapdragon 690.MTKreleased mid-end Breguet 1000Plus and low-end Breguet 820 19 Simmtech Confidential Industry dynamics: Android 5G SoC drops to the middle and low end 20 Simmtech Confidential Mobile phone main chip "three battle world" main battlefield of platform type company First World: chip supply, dimension reduction attack: (1) Apple AP chip self-supply (2) Huawei's high-end self-supply, mid-to-low level MTK and Qualcomm;(3) Samsung; self-supply Second World: Standard-leading, brand premium: Qualcomm supplies main chip products to Android brands such as OPPO, Vivo and Xiaomi. The era of 4G concentration of downstream brands has squeezed MTK's space Third World: Dark forest, the market is king: MTK, UniSOC(SPRD), ASR and other low-end applications mainly, 5G changes are expected to bring development opportunities 21 Simmtech Confidential 5G SOC summary and comparison 22 Simmtech Confidential Industry dynamics: New Android phones in May focus on 5G mid to low end models In May, manufacturers mainly focused on mid and low end 5G models Huawei released Enjoy Z and Honor X10 series, Vivo released mid-range model IQOO Z1 5G, Redmi released 10X series, RealMe released mid-range model X50 Pro 5G Player version, and Meizu released 17 series flagship phones 23 Simmtech Confidential Summary of Android 5G models 24 Simmtech Confidential CONTENTS 目录 1. 2. 3. 4. China High-frequency data tracking of mobile phones Global and regional mobile phone trends Industry dynamic tracking Key Companies 25 Simmtech Confidential Key company: Apple Q2 2020 performance is more than pessimistic expectations, short-term uncertainty is obvious Apple's FY20Q2 results beat the market's pessimistic expectations: Apple's main Q2 financial data in fiscal 2020 exceeded the market's pessimistic expectations, with operating revenue of $58.3 billion (+0.5% YoY) and net profit of $11.3 billion (-2.7% YoY).In terms of products, services and wearable business increased by 17% and 23% respectively, while iPhone, Mac and iPad fell by 7%, 3% and 10% respectively. Short-term uncertainty is obvious, mid term still can period: affected by the epidemic, Apple did not disclose the Q3 earnings guidance, but still provides some prospective judgment, including the iPhone and wearable Q3 business is expected to worsen, and the iPad and the Mac business benefit from online education and telecommuting is expected to be good and services appear differentiation, AppStore, video, music, and cloud services will continue strong, but Apple Care and advertising materials will be under pressure; In general, short-term performance is still uncertain, but in the mid term, with the gradual improvement of the epidemic situation in Europe and the United States, the trend of replacement driven by 5G is still clear, with the strong momentum of superposition services and wearable business, we can still expect Apple next year 26 Simmtech Confidential Key company: Xiaomi's Q1 2020 performance slightly exceeded expectations, and the impact of the epidemic is expected to be relatively controllable Performance overview in 2020Q1: The performance slightly exceeded expectations, the domestic mobile phone share basically stabilized, and overseas expansion promoted growth Xiaomi's revenue in 2020Q1 was 49.7 billion yuan (+13.6% on a YoY basis), and its adjusted net profit was 2.3 billion yuan (+10.6% on a YoY basis).In 2020Q1, overseas revenue reached 24.8 billion yuan, and the proportion of overseas revenue increased to 50.0%.Smartphone revenue reached 30.3 billion yuan, up 12.3 percent year on year.2020Q1 smartphone shipments of 29.2 million units (+4.7%), ASP 1038.52 yuan (+7.3%) 2020 performance outlook: low inventory level, decentralized distribution in many countries/regions, and high proportion of online channels, etc., so the impact of the epidemic is expected to be relatively controllable According to IDC, Xiaomi shipped 29.5 million phones in 2020Q1, up 6.1% YoY, and its market share exceeded 10% for the first time, reaching 10.7%.Domestic shipments of 7 million units, market share improved MoM, 10.5%;India shipped 10.3 million units, with a 31% market share. According to data from Canalys, Xiaomi's market share in Western Europe reached 10% in Q1, while IDC's market share in the same period of last year was less than 3%, which was significantly increased YoY. We will continue to monitor the development of overseas epidemic and mobile phone sales, while maintaining long-term optimism for Xiaomi's global layout. 27 Simmtech Confidential Key company: TECNO Africa has limited impact of the COVID-19 and has made steady progress in many businesses 2020Q1 performance overview: The impact of the epidemic is limited, and the deduction of non-profit exceeds expectations The company's operating income in 2020Q1 was 5.645 billion yuan, with a YoY growth of 15.12%. The net profit deducted from non-attributable income was 296 million yuan, with a YoY growth of 16.23%, exceeding market expectations . The upstream of the company is fully stocked, and the downstream of the company is in high demand. The impact of the epidemic is relatively limited. Outlook of 2020: The company has made steady progress in a number of businesses and maintained a firm and optimistic outlook From the supply side, the company's main supply chain is located in China, with a small part coming from Japan and South Korea. The most severe time of the epidemic has passed in these regions, and the supply basically returns to normal From the perspective of demand, the penetration rate of mobile phones in Africa is still improving, and the withdrawal of some white-brand competitors under the influence of the epidemic will further consolidate the company's leading position. In addition, switching from functional phones to smart phones will drive the average price of mobile phones up. In India, the company's mobile phone sales are expected to rebound rapidly after the factory has resumed work and the epidemic situation is gradually under control. The main reason is that the epidemic situation may lead to the downgrade of local consumption, and the price segment of the company's products will become more competitive due to the rise of competitors due to exchange rate fluctuations, GST tax reform and other factors 28 Simmtech Confidential END. 29 Simmtech Confidential