140th Climate Forum
22 September 2021
CLIMATE
OUTLOOK
OCTOBER 2021 – MARCH 2022
Prepared by:
PAGASA-DOST
Climatology & Agrometeorology Division (CAD)
Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section (CLIMPS)
Presenter:
Rusy G. Abastillas
Senior Weather Specialist, CAD-CLIMPS
ENSO STATUS
Climate Outlook
(OCTOBER 2021 – MARCH 2022)
Summary
In the last four weeks,
equatorial SSTs were nearto-below average across
most of the equatorial
Pacific Ocean, and were
above average in the
western Pacific Ocean.
Conditions in the Tropical Pacific Ocean
As of 20 September 2021:
Negative subsurface temperature anomalies
persisted into March 2021. From mid-March
to early July 2021, subsurface temperature
was above average. Since mid-May 2021,
positive temperature anomalies have
weakened. Negative anomalies strengthened
in July and again in mid-September.
Source: NOAA CPC
5
Model Predictions of ENSO from Sep 2021
Most of the models in the set of dynamical and
statistical model predictions issued during midSeptember 2021 show below-average SST conditions
likely to cool further in coming months. During the
Sep-Nov through Dec-Feb seasons, La Niña conditions
are favored over ENSO-neutral. For Jan-Mar, the odds
are more equal. This re-emergence of La Niña is
predicted to potentially persist long enough to
constitute a La Niña event.
SON
OND
NDJ
DJF
JFM
FMA
MAM
AMJ
MJJ
Average, Dynamical models
-0.63
-0.78
-0.84
-0.75
-0.57
-0.39
-0.24
0.01
0.12
Average, Statistical models
-0.62
-0.63
-0.62
-0.55
-0.47
-0.33
-0.2
-0.11
-0.04
Average, All models
-0.63
-0.74
-0.78
-0.7
-0.54
-0.37
-0.22
-0.04
0.04
6
The CFS.v2 ensemble mean (black dashed line)
predicts a transition to La Niña in in the next
month and La Niña to continue through fall and
winter 2021-22.
Model + Expert Judgement
Purely Model Output
Historical El Niño and La Niña Episodes Based on the ONI
computed using ERSST.v5
Recent Pacific warm (red) and cold (blue) periods based on a threshold of +/- 0.5 ºC for the Oceanic
Nino Index (ONI) [3 month running mean of ERSST.v5 SST anomalies in the Nino 3.4 region (5N-5S, 120-170W)].
For historical purposes, periods of below and above normal SSTs are colored in blue and red when the
threshold is met for a minimum of 5 consecutive over-lapping seasons.
The ONI is one measure of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, and other indices can confirm whether
features consistent with a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon accompanied these periods. The complete
table going back to DJF 1950 can be found here.
• ENSO Alert System Status: La Nina Alert
 A transition from ENSO-neutral to La Niña is favored in the coming
months;
 There is a 70-80% chance of La Niña forming in the last quarter of 2021
which may persist until the first quarter of 2022.
WEATHER SYSTEMS THAT MAY AFFECT THE COUNTRY
October 2021 – March 2022
THUNDERSTORMS
LOW PRESSURE
AREAS (LPAs)
INTER-TROPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE (ITCZ)
TROPICAL CYCLONES
EASTERLIES
NORTHEAST
MONSOON
*Transition to NE (Oct)
RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AREAS (HPAs)
TAIL-END OF THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM
Understanding
our Rainfall
Maps..
PERCENTAGE (%)
Less than or = 40
RAINFALL CONDITION
way below normal
41 – 80
below normal
81 – 120
near normal
Greater than 120
above normal
OCTOBER 2021
Normal Rainfall
Forecast Rainfall
Percent of Normal
Probabilistic Forecast
NOTE: 1991-2020 climate normal
used in the maps was the results of
the initial calculations. Data will be
recalculated once the official normal
is released.
way below normal
below normal
near normal
above normal
0
0
34
49
NOVEMBER 2021
Normal Rainfall
Forecast Rainfall
Percent of Normal
Probabilistic Forecast
NOTE: 1991-2020 climate normal
used in the maps was the results of
the initial calculations. Data will be
recalculated once the official normal
is released.
way below normal
below normal
near normal
above normal
0
0
32
51
DECEMBER 2021
Normal Rainfall
Forecast Rainfall
Percent of Normal
Probabilistic Forecast
NOTE: 1991-2020 climate normal
used in the maps was the results of
the initial calculations. Data will be
recalculated once the official normal
is released.
way below normal
below normal
near normal
above normal
0
0
58
25
JANUARY 2022
Normal Rainfall
Forecast Rainfall
Percent of Normal
Probabilistic Forecast
NOTE: 1991-2020 climate normal
used in the maps was the results of
the initial calculations. Data will be
recalculated once the official normal
is released.
way below normal
below normal
near normal
above normal
0
8
28
48
FEBRUARY 2022
Normal Rainfall
Forecast Rainfall
Percent of Normal
Probabilistic Forecast
NOTE: 1991-2020 climate normal
used in the maps was the results of
the initial calculations. Data will be
recalculated once the official normal
is released.
way below normal
below normal
near normal
above normal
1
7
19
56
MARCH 2022
Normal Rainfall
Forecast Rainfall
Percent of Normal
Probabilistic Forecast
NOTE: 1991-2020 climate normal
used in the maps was the results of
the initial calculations. Data will be
recalculated once the official normal
is released.
way below normal
below normal
near normal
above normal
3
7
27
46
FORECAST RAINFALL in Percent of Normal (October 2021 - March 2022) as of Sep 22, 2021
PROVINCE
OCTOBER NOVEMBER DECEMBER JANUARY FEBRUARY MARCH
CORDILLERA ADMINISTRATIVE REGION (CAR)
ABRA
114.1
BENGUET
88.2
IFUGAO
118.3
KALINGA
114.3
APAYAO
111.7
MOUNTAIN PROVINCE
116.3
REGION I
ILOCOS NORTE
118.0
ILOCOS SUR
102.4
LA UNION
91.0
PANGASINAN
128.5
REGION II
BATANES
120.8
CAGAYAN
109.1
ISABELA
123.6
NUEVA VIZCAYA
121.2
QUIRINO
134.4
REGION III (CENTRAL LUZON)
BATAAN
161.9
BULACAN
130.4
NUEVA ECIJA
125.6
PAMPANGA
140.4
TARLAC
141.3
ZAMBALES
163.6
AURORA
136.6
NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION
METRO MANILA
146.1
REGION IV-A (CALABARZON)
BATANGAS
152.8
CAVITE
159.6
LAGUNA
152.3
RIZAL
143.7
QUEZON
141.4
97.5
115.1
117.5
112.5
107.5
115.7
95.5
85.3
116.4
118.5
109.6
112.5
67.8
89.8
98.5
104.2
95.0
95.0
52.6
91.1
116.2
98.1
71.6
99.5
35.9
75.8
79.5
71.7
66.4
67.5
80.3
95.8
133.0
135.3
92.6
87.7
83.3
92.6
61.3
63.5
79.0
65.2
32.1
50.9
71.0
79.0
30.7
31.3
56.7
92.5
122.7
111.5
118.1
114.1
128.8
105.0
122.8
139.1
106.7
129.2
108.9
125.6
120.3
98.9
110.2
121.3
106.2
140.0
116.3
135.8
87.1
93.3
98.0
102.3
106.1
98.0
111.7
117.5
94.2
108.8
115.4
103.8
101.4
125.7
100.3
100.0
93.5
96.8
126.7
91.3
104.2
81.2
78.9
57.0
49.3
114.0
90.8
101.2
93.2
76.8
78.5
90.2
126.8
97.7
109.5
110.1
116.5
110.2
100.2
108.2
148.3
134.9
136.5
110.2
85.9
134.1
140.7
155.4
214.5
129.2
132.9
130.1
132.5
136.9
127.4
129.3
135.9
133.1
129.9
120.6
135.8
127.8
136.5
124.4
134.8
85.4
73.9
97.7
95.4
114.9
PROVINCE
REGION IV-B (MIMAROPA)
MARINDUQUE
OCCIDENTAL MINDORO
ORIENTAL MINDORO
ROMBLON
PALAWAN
SPRATLY ISLANDS
REGION V (BICOL)
ALBAY
CAMARINES NORTE
CAMARINES SUR
CATANDUANES
MASBATE
SORSOGON
REGION VI (WESTERN VISAYAS)
AKLAN
ANTIQUE
CAPIZ
GUIMARAS
ILOILO
NEGROS OCCIDENTAL
REGION VII (CENTRAL VISAYAS)
NEGROS ORIENTAL
BOHOL
CEBU
SIQUIJOR
REGION VIII (EASTERN VISAYAS)
BILIRAN
EASTERN SAMAR
LEYTE
NORTHERN SAMAR
SAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR)
SOUTHERN LEYTE
OCTOBER NOVEMBER DECEMBER JANUARY FEBRUARY MARCH
144.3
144.0
142.5
138.3
124.2
143.7
132.6
140.0
137.1
133.2
137.8
132.5
124.6
124.8
127.1
121.5
140.1
133.0
122.9
115.2
120.0
135.4
113.5
98.2
131.1
109.4
115.0
126.0
114.2
110.1
109.7
83.4
87.7
116.5
103.8
89.5
142.0
143.3
146.9
133.0
147.9
143.9
130.0
131.8
119.5
136.9
123.9
119.8
111.9
125.4
111.5
118.0
125.1
120.6
132.8
119.3
125.8
137.3
132.0
130.3
131.7
137.8
132.2
141.9
152.5
144.3
117.6
143.7
133.3
131.9
125.9
128.2
120.8
125.4
112.6
125.4
120.1
123.0
123.6
135.4
119.9
136.9
128.8
126.7
119.9
126.3
117.8
125.7
122.6
120.4
128.1
123.0
129.1
126.2
124.5
144.7
118.1
122.5
127.5
145.5
136.8
138.1
119.2
116.5
129.0
138.8
131.1
149.5
114.8
123.5
117.8
111.5
133.6
122.2
133.7
134.1
118.7
109.4
113.6
115.7
139.9
140.4
141.8
137.0
123.9
145.8
146.6
121.6
167.2
160.9
157.2
176.9
130.8
126.2
127.3
145.9
128.9
137.5
123.5
126.4
103.9
116.6
122.8
117.0
115.4
115.2
109.4
118.5
115.1
104.6
125.3
121.8
130.4
119.8
120.7
133.2
151.0
129.6
151.1
138.0
138.7
140.0
134.9
134.5
140.2
135.8
133.8
146.9
PROVINCE
OCTOBERNOVEMBERDECEMBER JANUARY FEBRUARY
REGION IX (ZAMBOANGA PENINSULA)
ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE
117.4 127.5
117.5
155.4
114.6
ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR
114.1 127.7
113.3
155.3
118.7
ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY
113.7 128.3
114.0
157.5
119.1
REGION X (NORTHERN MINDANAO)
BUKIDNON
114.1 128.2
115.3
112.9
136.0
CAMIGUIN
120.0 121.5
107.4
129.7
139.6
LANAO DEL NORTE
113.9 124.3
111.9
135.2
133.3
MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL
116.8 124.7
116.0
144.3
120.6
MISAMIS ORIENTAL
117.3 122.1
110.6
122.9
142.9
REGION XI (DAVAO REGION)
DAVAO DE ORO
111.5 135.3
109.7
114.6
132.2
DAVAO CITY
105.0
85.6
112.3
102.3
115.9
DAVAO DEL NORTE
105.6
97.5
110.7
106.8
124.3
DAVAO DEL SUR
116.1 118.9
109.9
104.3
123.4
DAVAO OCCIDENTAL
119.6 127.7
107.1
107.7
133.5
DAVAO ORIENTAL
118.4 133.0
109.0
115.5
132.0
REGION XII (SOCCSKSARGEN)
SOUTH COTABATO
119.0 131.7
105.5
112.8
134.9
COTABATO
112.5 118.8
108.4
114.4
126.4
SARANGANI
120.8 132.5
105.5
110.4
136.8
SULTAN KUDARAT
114.0 126.1
105.3
122.4
130.4
REGION XIII- CARAGA
AGUSAN DEL NORTE
122.7 115.0
100.7
124.2
132.3
AGUSAN DEL SUR
121.7 118.6
104.8
116.8
128.8
DINAGAT ISLANDS
125.7 118.0
100.3
126.1
138.1
SURIGAO DEL NORTE
124.9 118.0
97.5
125.5
133.4
SURIGAO DEL SUR
124.3 114.1
98.8
121.3
127.2
BARMM
BASILAN
114.8 131.8
112.2
165.2
120.7
MAGUINDANAO
109.1 123.7
103.8
128.0
130.7
LANAO DEL SUR
112.7 123.2
110.0
128.1
135.6
SULU
112.7 125.3
118.7
149.3
125.4
TAWI-TAWI
114.9 127.7
125.7
138.1
124.5
MARCH
170.4
170.8
168.0
145.3
153.9
168.6
174.2
151.4
141.3
121.3
130.1
135.8
149.5
144.9
159.3
151.7
157.2
164.4
147.3
144.1
138.2
138.5
144.5
161.3
174.5
167.0
151.2
138.6
FORECAST RAINFALL in Millimeter (October 2021 - March 2022) as of Sep 22, 2021
OCTOBER
PROVINCE
C O R D IL L ER A A D MIN IS T R A T IV E R EG IO N
MIN
NOVEMBER
MAX MEAN
MIN
DECEMBER
MAX MEAN
MIN
JANUARY
MAX MEAN
MIN
FEBRUARY
MAX MEAN
MIN
MARCH
MAX MEAN
MIN
MAX MEAN
ABRA
153.6
322.4
250.5
34.6
279.9
179.7
47.3
155.3
99.5
2.7
24.8
12.8
2.1
21.1
11.9
2.7
24.8
12.9
BENGUET
259.3
390.1
317.7
67.9
234.2
151.1
51.7
146.2
95.5
29.6
58.4
22.3
15.8
40.7
25.9
29.6
58.4
43.4
IFUGAO
300.3
336.4
313.7
194.1
259.5
241.9
140.0
309.8
217.4
33.3
59.8
41.9
27.6
59.6
42.8
33.3
59.8
44.7
KALINGA
289.7
326.0
317.3
245.5
291.6
273.2
135.7
254.5
192.4
18.4
37.0
32.8
18.1
45.9
29.5
18.4
37.0
26.8
APAYAO
242.0
323.6
299.1
168.0
354.6
276.1
107.7
230.7
170.8
12.3
34.3
54.0
15.6
53.9
33.9
12.3
34.3
23.6
MOUNTAIN PROVINCE
292.8
326.2
315.0
231.2
269.4
255.1
118.0
277.6
184.3
23.4
43.5
29.1
18.7
52.2
31.1
23.4
43.5
32.7
ILOCOS NORTE
130.8
289.4
201.2
23.3
262.0
100.8
33.7
165.5
83.3
0.4
29.3
27.7
0.3
52.3
15.9
0.4
29.3
10.1
ILOCOS SUR
124.4
304.9
226.6
20.2
246.2
137.7
30.3
127.7
74.4
0.3
33.3
9.7
0.6
22.2
12.5
0.3
33.3
17.6
LA UNION
259.8
335.7
278.6
67.7
169.1
136.0
44.2
72.2
56.2
23.7
42.1
10.4
13.5
19.2
15.7
23.7
42.1
30.8
PANGASINAN
275.1
390.2
323.7
66.3
161.7
112.8
36.1
126.4
52.9
17.0
54.4
7.9
3.3
37.0
13.3
17.0
54.4
26.9
REGION I
REGION II
BATANES
339.5
374.8
366.8
284.7
351.0
323.5
171.9
214.2
194.0
40.3
67.6
166.1
104.5
108.2
106.1
40.3
67.6
55.6
CAGAYAN
271.2
337.9
313.3
231.0
369.4
313.8
150.1
315.3
251.4
23.6
65.8
98.7
29.4
129.4
63.7
23.6
65.8
41.7
ISABELA
302.3
561.3
352.2
238.2
721.9
325.2
246.2
655.0
391.8
32.3
198.4
128.8
42.2
272.9
119.8
32.3
198.4
88.8
NUEVA VIZCAYA
310.2
483.2
383.4
103.7
382.4
256.5
92.7
377.7
235.6
49.5
161.1
83.5
30.7
160.7
73.1
49.5
161.1
80.2
QUIRINO
326.0
582.7
445.7
258.6
785.8
420.9
301.7
659.2
432.0
65.9
207.2
174.2
70.5
273.7
161.4
65.9
207.2
140.1
REGION III
BATAAN
327.1
384.8
360.8
0.0
108.6
49.9
47.8
136.1
78.6
13.4
21.0
10.0
3.9
17.8
8.1
13.4
21.0
15.3
BULACAN
294.6
505.8
364.8
0.0
767.2
221.0
103.8
457.5
242.1
17.2
125.3
53.5
0.0
164.5
41.7
17.2
125.3
46.1
NUEVA ECIJA
221.9
470.0
326.4
14.2
393.3
162.8
51.9
367.8
164.6
13.2
134.7
63.1
0.2
146.9
49.3
13.2
134.7
55.8
PAMPANGA
256.8
358.1
299.2
0.0
371.5
67.1
42.7
176.0
92.0
18.4
33.7
12.1
0.0
21.2
7.4
18.4
33.7
26.2
TARLAC
244.2
413.6
308.9
46.8
206.2
89.0
34.0
95.7
47.2
13.8
28.5
4.4
0.1
10.6
6.3
13.8
28.5
20.9
ZAMBALES
326.5
465.1
390.8
27.2
134.1
84.4
30.7
60.6
39.2
13.7
23.4
3.0
3.8
13.7
8.3
13.7
23.4
17.6
AURORA
420.7
695.1
543.5
0.0
926.4
502.7
289.3
796.3
524.6
113.7
270.5
245.0
116.2
365.0
224.0
113.7
270.5
188.3
309.1
407.3
358.9
0.0
432.8
209.1
154.1
272.1
203.6
16.8
41.9
44.8
8.7
50.2
29.6
16.8
41.9
26.8
BATANGAS
307.0
532.2
392.8
155.0
593.4
322.4
159.3
506.0
306.0
16.6
82.1
73.9
21.1
131.5
56.3
16.6
82.1
39.2
CAVITE
310.9
362.1
326.9
49.6
251.7
142.4
144.0
238.8
185.5
10.7
28.0
31.7
19.7
38.9
24.3
10.7
28.0
16.3
LAGUNA
314.3
636.2
463.0
148.5
882.6
480.8
208.4
651.8
419.6
20.1
158.2
139.0
28.7
228.7
109.3
20.1
158.2
76.9
RIZAL
373.0
569.8
452.2
185.1
1000.9
677.2
241.3
576.6
394.1
35.7
147.1
138.2
35.8
204.2
108.2
35.7
147.1
78.1
QUEZON
335.3
688.0
574.0
147.0
1026.2
610.4
377.1
817.7
642.7
51.0
306.0
262.8
75.5
424.4
225.9
51.0
306.0
162.9
MARINDUQUE
477.6
547.8
496.2
427.7
522.3
445.4
446.4
582.4
510.8
96.4
136.3
192.5
131.4
187.2
159.7
96.4
136.3
114.7
OCCIDENTAL MINDORO
345.0
451.7
405.8
141.3
378.6
280.4
141.3
319.4
231.6
11.0
55.4
57.6
12.9
73.2
42.3
11.0
55.4
34.1
ORIENTAL MINDORO
363.2
491.2
424.0
179.0
435.7
328.6
181.3
405.8
298.3
29.8
79.7
95.7
31.5
105.5
68.2
29.8
79.7
53.2
ROMBLON
372.5
474.4
419.0
272.4
424.2
351.1
262.8
408.8
341.5
78.8
105.2
157.3
82.7
130.1
110.0
78.8
105.2
97.4
PALAWAN
220.6
413.3
312.9
169.8
307.4
245.9
147.4
313.6
236.1
8.1
83.7
65.6
7.9
67.5
44.9
8.1
83.7
52.3
SPRATLY ISLANDS
339.2
349.9
341.0
180.9
194.9
183.3
167.3
176.1
169.0
48.4
27.9
29.5
28.2
28.2
28.7
28.3
NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION
METRO MANILA
REGION IV-A
REGION IV-B
REGION V
ALBAY
342.5
487.4
404.5
212.7
648.9
405.2
405.9
628.6
496.9
80.6
292.3
279.5
113.2
349.2
205.8
80.6
292.3
156.6
CAMARINES NORTE
565.1
699.3
620.2
532.4
714.5
628.3
595.1
790.3
754.7
191.8
291.5
330.5
207.3
313.0
288.5
191.8
291.5
246.1
CAMARINES SUR
374.8
640.3
494.1
206.2
671.6
410.0
360.6
735.6
520.1
79.4
246.1
239.5
82.7
277.4
171.8
79.4
246.1
152.6
CATANDUANES
469.9
504.2
483.6
515.3
594.9
553.9
581.2
625.8
612.4
213.5
249.5
387.1
235.3
267.0
248.5
213.5
249.5
229.4
MASBATE
341.3
472.9
381.4
249.2
454.8
325.0
340.7
506.5
442.9
93.6
228.0
264.2
117.4
264.8
190.0
93.6
228.0
153.7
SORSOGON
395.3
476.2
446.8
386.1
648.2
520.8
471.2
632.5
582.7
135.2
308.2
397.5
187.6
338.4
307.7
135.2
308.2
266.7
FORECAST RAINFALL in Millimeter (October 2021 - March 2022) as of Sep 22, 2021
OCTOBER
PROVINCE
NOVEMBER
DECEMBER
JANUARY
FEBRUARY
MARCH
REGION VI
MIN
MAX
MEAN
MIN
MAX
MEAN
MIN
MAX
MEAN
MIN
MAX
MEAN
MIN
MAX
MEAN
MIN
MAX
MEAN
AKLAN
307.2
397.9
346.7
269.4
427.5
345.2
247.1
327.5
290.8
90.0
194.3
170.1
75.0
127.1
102.6
90.0
194.3
140.0
ANTIQUE
278.0
407.7
316.1
215.9
342.2
260.6
187.1
289.8
228.9
44.6
140.4
111.5
37.9
97.8
72.4
44.6
140.4
103.6
CAPIZ
290.3
405.7
335.1
246.7
443.0
367.1
246.1
338.3
305.2
75.5
227.0
187.4
85.3
138.6
114.3
75.5
227.0
154.9
GUIMARAS
282.5
353.1
311.2
189.0
223.5
200.9
192.8
206.9
196.1
72.0
90.2
73.9
57.1
73.2
65.1
72.0
90.2
81.3
ILOILO
268.5
391.5
299.8
189.3
413.0
268.6
188.9
361.5
248.1
69.1
176.2
130.7
54.5
151.7
89.5
69.1
176.2
115.4
NEGROS OCCIDENTAL
293.6
432.0
345.2
221.5
267.5
253.3
190.7
283.0
215.4
93.1
132.0
124.5
77.1
157.2
99.0
93.1
132.0
110.5
NEGROS ORIENTAL
162.3
403.4
275.8
229.9
269.2
248.0
188.2
225.9
201.9
109.5
145.3
137.0
83.2
109.9
94.5
109.5
145.3
123.1
BOHOL
215.3
337.4
261.9
176.3
293.1
235.4
194.6
311.2
239.8
124.4
206.9
254.7
123.4
244.5
181.0
124.4
206.9
165.8
CEBU
183.5
377.5
274.7
210.9
359.9
251.5
188.1
432.1
246.0
99.2
224.8
197.1
90.2
329.4
152.5
99.2
224.8
132.6
SIQUIJOR
201.4
246.8
225.1
224.9
257.4
243.2
202.3
220.4
211.6
139.6
150.8
180.8
102.5
124.7
114.6
139.6
150.8
146.2
REGION VII
REGION VIII
BILIRAN
340.2
369.1
358.6
348.2
376.2
355.3
454.3
497.5
473.7
225.7
252.8
356.5
273.4
315.0
298.6
225.7
252.8
243.1
EASTERN SAMAR
309.6
422.9
377.3
398.7
581.9
477.9
512.9
650.5
594.5
306.6
391.5
556.3
362.2
460.7
408.3
306.6
391.5
345.3
LEYTE
268.6
376.2
334.1
246.7
388.7
311.0
329.1
510.6
432.8
200.6
323.8
414.8
261.4
415.3
356.7
200.6
323.8
259.8
NORTHERN SAMAR
378.5
516.5
452.8
363.3
520.3
462.4
544.1
728.4
653.0
248.2
432.0
532.1
280.2
421.7
379.4
248.2
432.0
364.0
SAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR)
274.2
469.4
379.9
339.7
528.7
413.4
490.7
653.0
569.2
249.0
367.8
473.5
282.1
422.9
362.3
249.0
367.8
316.1
SOUTHERN LEYTE
313.0
368.2
343.1
261.9
460.1
305.5
325.5
447.9
394.5
213.4
377.9
508.5
256.1
501.0
374.9
213.4
377.9
279.8
ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE
242.0
364.8
290.5
167.2
422.3
269.8
123.8
292.4
210.8
115.2
178.6
184.4
73.2
141.6
113.4
115.2
178.6
150.3
ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR
230.9
311.0
253.8
145.9
309.2
213.6
106.6
246.0
183.3
109.6
168.0
166.8
63.5
131.6
109.3
109.6
168.0
150.7
ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY
233.9
265.7
256.9
202.4
223.0
210.4
146.5
203.2
174.1
124.5
156.5
161.9
84.8
117.3
101.8
124.5
156.5
141.8
BUKIDNON
220.6
323.7
280.7
138.6
274.4
243.4
174.3
254.9
208.6
93.8
221.9
191.8
117.0
241.8
159.8
93.8
221.9
161.3
CAMIGUIN
281.1
296.2
282.8
285.2
302.5
290.1
253.7
272.4
261.4
185.2
202.9
304.7
216.5
245.0
230.4
185.2
202.9
193.7
LANAO DEL NORTE
220.2
259.1
238.9
146.5
259.3
208.2
171.2
211.2
190.6
99.7
171.7
159.6
115.1
128.5
122.6
99.7
171.7
148.2
MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL
248.8
333.3
291.9
224.6
377.7
285.5
206.0
263.3
233.7
84.4
229.8
200.4
124.9
136.6
131.3
151.6
167.8
160.2
MISAMIS ORIENTAL
210.2
279.0
249.2
136.4
281.4
219.6
172.8
285.7
223.5
84.4
229.8
245.0
113.5
302.1
184.1
84.4
229.8
149.4
DAVAO DE ORO
185.2
286.7
241.6
176.3
338.4
254.5
193.2
350.6
263.0
153.3
431.0
396.7
164.1
481.7
298.5
153.3
431.0
271.9
DAVAO CITY
202.3
271.4
251.8
154.6
258.9
200.7
175.2
206.6
187.0
136.4
203.3
167.7
121.1
196.4
147.6
136.4
203.3
164.0
DAVAO DEL NORTE
191.5
296.5
241.9
155.8
282.8
235.1
182.6
286.7
221.2
143.8
317.4
269.2
137.8
347.8
222.7
143.8
317.4
218.9
DAVAO DEL SUR
195.6
272.0
250.2
173.0
243.4
215.0
144.2
182.6
164.1
119.8
147.1
132.0
99.3
123.4
113.2
119.8
147.1
135.0
DAVAO OCCIDENTAL
177.7
261.1
222.9
155.3
266.5
220.5
140.2
193.9
164.7
113.4
178.3
159.2
96.4
172.2
128.2
113.4
178.3
138.4
DAVAO ORIENTAL
224.1
292.2
263.7
206.9
358.1
275.1
207.0
368.6
267.3
168.9
463.1
415.5
177.8
520.0
297.5
168.9
463.1
269.8
SOUTH COTABATO
118.2
246.3
201.2
107.3
239.5
188.4
110.8
153.5
136.0
88.7
168.3
111.1
77.0
123.5
101.6
88.7
168.3
130.8
COTABATO
240.9
282.2
259.8
199.2
271.2
242.4
145.3
199.6
168.2
141.8
207.6
129.4
108.8
166.9
126.4
141.8
207.6
170.4
SARANGANI
131.1
246.3
195.1
110.2
250.2
181.6
121.3
178.2
146.3
95.5
161.5
132.5
83.8
151.8
111.7
95.5
161.5
128.5
SULTAN KUDARAT
211.7
258.2
245.2
199.4
248.4
236.1
140.6
161.1
150.6
128.2
189.8
114.9
101.0
128.6
118.2
128.2
189.8
165.3
AGUSAN DEL NORTE
210.5
282.7
243.3
226.5
393.2
262.1
257.3
391.3
310.9
198.3
368.0
494.3
246.8
495.7
354.3
198.3
368.0
266.7
AGUSAN DEL SUR
228.6
340.1
277.5
234.4
505.8
299.7
241.3
459.4
320.3
196.2
611.0
526.5
225.3
680.4
395.3
196.2
611.0
340.4
DINAGAT ISLANDS
303.2
329.7
307.6
349.8
496.4
410.7
454.9
491.4
465.6
330.5
434.7
689.3
458.0
587.8
526.3
330.5
434.7
386.4
SURIGAO DEL NORTE
267.2
317.6
301.6
310.1
527.5
420.0
375.1
468.7
431.4
347.5
465.5
724.8
466.2
626.0
538.0
347.5
465.5
400.3
SURIGAO DEL SUR
254.1
348.6
291.8
269.2
511.6
349.6
350.1
478.3
397.2
335.7
650.0
735.8
447.1
719.1
534.8
335.7
650.0
441.3
REGION IX
REGION X
REGION XI
REGION XII
REGION XIII
BARMM
BASILAN
237.9
255.8
246.0
155.5
215.3
182.0
114.7
153.9
123.9
110.0
123.2
118.4
69.8
83.8
76.3
110.0
123.2
118.5
MAGUINDANAO
236.0
290.1
264.2
211.4
240.1
233.9
140.6
172.9
150.6
142.6
217.6
119.3
108.1
127.4
121.4
142.6
217.6
188.8
LANAO DEL SUR
233.3
270.6
247.9
190.2
250.4
226.5
150.7
198.4
178.2
121.8
197.4
140.1
118.5
133.1
124.1
121.8
197.4
160.5
SULU
236.1
265.3
247.1
207.4
217.3
212.9
134.4
178.5
168.1
97.5
126.5
112.4
70.7
91.8
84.0
97.5
126.5
114.9
TAWI-TAWI
236.4
298.7
253.0
209.4
242.4
210.4
173.6
218.7
178.1
87.2
121.6
105.1
66.7
93.8
78.6
87.2
121.6
103.5
FORECAST WATERSHED RAINFALL for selected Dams and Lakes
in (mm) and (%N) FOR OCT 2021 - MAR 2022
NAME
OCTOBER
NOVEMBER
DECEMBER
JANUARY
FEBRUARY
MARCH
MIN
MAX
MEAN
%NORMAL
MIN
MAX
MEAN
%NORMAL
MIN
MAX
MEAN
%NORMAL
MIN
MAX
MEAN
%NORMAL
MIN
MAX
MEAN
%NORMAL
MIN
MAX
MEAN
%NORMAL
Angat WS
La Mesa WS
Lake Buhi
Lake Lanao
Magat WS
Malinao WS
332.4
504.5
437.6
126.9
252.6
758.2
443.9
125.8
271.1
439.9
357.2
131.1
48.3
163.2
100.7
100.4
22.8
164.4
99.7
122.4
41.0
128.8
72.3
100.6
378.7
395.7
386.7
138.9
94.8
222.6
164.5
133.2
227.7
274.4
248.1
137.6
46.5
62.1
54.7
130.7
25.8
38.8
32.7
106.7
31.8
41.1
36.1
100.8
342.5
544.3
415.4
146.9
206.2
467.7
285.1
119.5
360.6
538.0
430.4
106.7
157.6
310.6
199.5
128.2
82.7
246.7
128.2
128.0
79.4
183.0
101.3
123.0
210.2
283.8
244.1
114.0
136.4
258.0
205.6
124.3
171.5
202.3
185.0
112.4
132.2
172.1
144.2
123.8
113.5
135.2
123.1
140.8
84.4
179.0
136.1
159.3
302.2
415.6
344.4
116.2
170.8
298.0
241.4
113.6
134.3
323.0
208.8
108.2
25.6
109.4
54.3
97.0
29.4
98.8
51.9
114.1
34.2
96.2
58.4
89.3
256.2
285.7
273.8
123.8
235.0
276.7
259.4
124.0
237.8
262.6
250.8
108.8
252.6
295.8
275.6
139.2
179.1
205.1
193.4
144.8
161.4
181.3
172.4
159.8
Pantabangan
WS
342.9
434.5
391.7
133.2
173.3
311.3
235.2
126.1
142.2
301.6
215.5
102.0
61.7
161.8
102.9
94.8
48.7
123.1
80.1
105.9
61.7
127.1
89.1
114.9
San Roque
Cascade WS
298.5
385.5
346.3
91.1
73.7
208.0
134.5
101.9
62.0
150.5
103.9
84.9
17.8
40.9
27.8
92.3
21.5
40.7
30.8
100.7
41.6
57.6
50.4
91.1
FORECAST RAINFALL OF RAIN STATIONS OVER SELECTED DAM AREAS
in (mm) and (%N) FOR OCT 2021 - MAR 2022
SITES
AMBUKLAODAM
ANGATDAM
APUNAN
BADAYAN
BINGADAM
BOBOK
BUNGA
BUYOC
DANTOR
DUMAYUP
HALONG
IPODAM
MAGATDAM
MAPUTI
MARIKIT
MATULID
NORZAGARAY
PADALIS
PANTABANGAN DAM
SANROQUEDAM
STODOMINGO
TALAGUIO
UMIRAY
OCTOBER
NOVEMBER
DECEMBER
JANUARY
FEBRUARY
MARCH
MM
%NORMAL
MM
%NORMAL
MM
%NORMAL
MM
%NORMAL
MM
%NORMAL
MM
%NORMAL
343.5
329.1
314.8
297.6
360.5
356.8
395.3
312.3
316.0
341.3
309.8
332.0
310.5
489.9
418.0
411.3
326.7
402.4
347.3
362.1
358.2
412.5
506.3
83.6
128.4
90.3
96.2
85.8
91.7
131.0
119.0
120.5
122.0
113.8
132.7
128.5
116.8
132.7
136.4
131.4
135.5
132.9
112.2
113.0
130.0
132.6
136.0
263.4
175.2
218.2
118.1
153.5
231.3
239.2
243.8
267.9
241.3
0.0
244.1
436.5
266.8
526.7
0.0
257.9
184.0
89.2
244.7
349.8
756.4
102.8
132.9
115.4
127.8
94.4
99.7
122.5
116.3
115.8
119.0
117.6
96.4
120.6
96.6
120.6
155.6
100.3
128.7
133.3
100.9
106.6
128.8
157.1
103.4
291.0
125.0
129.7
95.2
122.6
184.3
220.3
205.9
264.5
178.6
226.0
283.5
361.4
287.2
394.0
219.8
242.5
172.5
75.2
216.4
289.0
474.1
82.5
141.2
90.2
94.6
80.4
86.5
98.3
114.8
116.0
118.6
107.7
134.4
131.8
120.7
104.1
140.7
132.5
104.1
99.7
85.8
105.8
131.4
133.7
26.7
49.4
30.2
24.9
25.5
32.7
71.8
47.5
36.3
70.9
32.9
31.1
54.0
122.3
152.8
103.5
27.4
112.8
85.1
22.0
66.1
60.9
183.3
93.3
114.7
93.4
89.7
93.1
93.7
91.2
98.0
97.5
100.1
93.8
117.0
103.0
88.7
101.4
109.2
112.8
96.9
89.0
83.4
98.7
103.6
108.6
30.0
23.6
32.1
28.0
30.0
34.8
57.9
47.6
37.7
66.9
35.0
8.9
53.6
140.7
116.3
94.4
5.6
87.4
64.5
23.4
61.1
39.0
167.4
98.9
109.6
96.6
89.3
104.1
102.2
106.3
118.3
112.0
126.8
103.5
99.7
137.0
115.1
104.6
142.4
97.0
107.2
100.8
95.8
116.8
100.1
135.0
50.4
47.9
47.1
39.3
53.1
53.4
70.5
50.7
39.7
67.7
40.7
32.0
48.8
113.5
120.8
43.6
31.0
96.1
73.6
43.7
69.2
42.7
109.1
85.3
149.5
75.0
62.8
97.7
89.3
115.7
82.9
75.5
93.2
71.3
125.8
89.3
107.9
111.6
84.1
126.3
115.2
117.8
110.3
96.6
98.0
92.6
FORECAST RAINFALL OVER SELECTED RIVER BASINS
in (mm) and (%N) FOR OCT - DEC 2021
OCTOBER 2021
MIN
136.1
241.6
266.7
342.5
277.7
288.4
130.8
221.9
308.2
275.1
MAX
316.5
319.9
403.5
650.5
372.4
621.4
264.3
504.5
598.6
345.9
MEAN %Normal
256.5
112.0
296.8
111.5
331.9
127.1
450.9
147.0
333.0
108.4
350.0
120.5
206.4
123.6
327.7
130.6
407.1
148.8
309.6
127.2
MIN
23.3
170.6
48.9
206.2
66.3
169.0
23.3
0.0
0.0
80.7
MIN
Agus RB
210.2
Agusan RB
210.5
Buayan-Malungon 118.2
Cagayan de Oro 216.7
Cotabato RB
176.0
Davao RB
228.8
Tagoloan River
243.1
Tagum-Libuganon 194.6
MAX
254.9
318.0
236.1
292.7
323.7
284.6
319.2
291.1
MEAN %Normal
229.0
115.3
267.4
120.2
187.7
122.3
255.0
113.8
260.8
113.1
254.7
107.2
287.2
114.0
247.0
109.3
MIN
136.4
223.1
107.3
137.1
154.6
154.6
179.6
173.2
CATCHMENT
Abra RB
Abulug RB
Agno RB
Bicol RB
Bued RB
Cagayan RB
Laoag RB
Pampanga RB
Pasig-Laguna RB
Sinocalan RB
CATCHMENT
NOVEMBER 2021
LUZON
MAX MEAN %Normal
273.2 187.6
101.6
365.0 281.2
107.6
233.1 112.8
120.4
678.9 339.7
120.4
97.8
76.1
119.9
856.1 310.2
117.5
219.1 110.3
90.2
753.6 156.4
110.4
897.1 373.8
154.5
107.1 93.7
148.1
MINDANAO
MAX MEAN %Normal
231.5 172.8
122.3
455.6 282.2
120.4
228.0 171.0
133.1
251.5 194.1
128.3
275.2 241.1
124.3
273.8 229.2
89.5
260.3 228.4
133.9
304.7 256.5
106.5
DECEMBER 2021
MIN
36.0
114.1
33.9
360.6
36.7
131.6
41.6
42.5
121.5
36.2
MAX
148.7
246.7
153.7
740.1
71.9
702.8
136.6
438.9
583.4
68.8
MEAN
101.8
174.7
66.2
468.6
54.5
295.7
80.8
158.1
324.1
44.3
%Normal
95.0
109.4
91.6
108.8
85.7
125.8
93.3
103.6
133.2
91.9
MIN
172.8
228.2
117.9
178.5
127.9
182.5
199.9
182.8
MAX
201.8
412.7
164.6
201.5
252.3
233.9
238.0
315.5
MEAN
187.0
304.1
145.1
190.4
171.1
197.7
219.9
245.3
%Normal
112.8
105.6
106.7
115.1
108.9
112.2
116.4
109.8
FORECAST RAINFALL OVER SELECTED RIVER BASINS
in (mm) and (%N) FOR JAN – MAR 2022
JANUARY 2022
CATCHMENT
Abra RB
Abulug RB
Agno RB
Bicol RB
Bued RB
Cagayan RB
Laoag RB
Pampanga RB
Pasig-Laguna RB
Sinocalan RB
CATCHMENT
Agus RB
Agusan RB
Buayan-Malungon
Cagayan de Oro
Cotabato RB
Davao RB
Tagoloan River
Tagum-Libuganon
MIN
2.7
26.1
0.0
157.6
3.6
15.9
5.0
0.7
3.9
1.1
MAX
27.9
107.9
47.1
316.4
20.4
288.3
44.9
206.3
253.4
17.9
MEAN %Normal
13.3
70.0
60.0
95.3
13.5
69.5
211.6
126.8
12.3
79.1
90.1
111.6
19.6
62.0
48.8
82.4
95.1
131.3
5.7
68.2
MIN
136.0
277.1
109.0
137.2
108.1
149.5
159.4
199.4
MAX
188.4
779.3
159.5
178.5
304.5
273.7
271.4
524.3
MEAN %Normal MIN
154.0
124.7 113.5
486.2
116.8 218.5
129.9
105.7
77.0
150.7
117.9 115.1
141.1
116.3
92.7
189.8
104.1 133.6
215.0
115.1 133.8
334.8
109.4 174.9
MIN
1.2
17.1
1.0
82.7
7.7
17.7
0.3
0.0
0.0
5.0
FEBRUARY 2022
LUZON
MAX MEAN %Normal
26.8
13.5
56.8
61.9
36.4
70.9
44.6
15.6
86.2
280.4 145.6
129.3
26.9
16.6
86.3
303.3 80.7
121.1
27.2
10.6
33.7
164.2 38.3
89.8
206.2 70.7
124.9
17.8
8.5
74.3
MINDANAO
MAX MEAN %Normal
139.5 121.7
145.2
599.8 363.8
129.7
124.6 102.7
134.5
137.7 125.8
143.8
241.7 132.3
130.4
226.7 167.8
120.0
205.0 166.6
141.7
402.1 268.3
127.0
MARCH 2022
MIN
1.4
13.4
15.5
79.4
19.8
17.9
0.8
13.2
17.5
18.6
MAX MEAN %Normal
38.8
16.1
38.2
38.3
24.7
68.1
61.7
30.9
101.7
250.7 120.6
127.2
55.8
36.0
100.3
229.2 67.8
91.4
18.4
8.0
30.1
152.7 47.2
111.6
148.3 54.5
96.7
36.0
22.9
97.2
MIN
84.4
182.0
88.7
90.3
116.1
142.1
122.2
179.6
MAX MEAN %Normal
143.4 113.7
156.7
532.6 312.7
144.1
133.8 117.6
149.9
149.4 123.1
151.3
230.9 169.3
155.6
222.2 181.1
126.8
180.9 147.2
146.3
362.7 254.0
134.7
D
R
Y
D
A
Y
F
O
R
E
C
A
S
T
NORMAL (1981 - 2010)
PROVINCE
OCT
NOV
CORDILLERA ADMINISTRATIVE REGION (CAR)
ABRA
22
BENGUET
17
IFUGAO
18
KALINGA
19
APAYAO
21
MOUNTAIN PROVINCE
18
REGION I
ILOCOS NORTE
24
ILOCOS SUR
21
LA UNION
19
PANGASINAN
21
REGION II
BATANES
16
CAGAYAN
18
ISABELA
17
NUEVA VIZCAYA
17
QUIRINO
16
REGION III (CENTRAL LUZON)
BATAAN
21
BULACAN
16
NUEVA ECIJA
19
PAMPANGA
20
TARLAC
22
ZAMBALES
21
AURORA
15
NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION
METRO MANILA
17
REGION IV-A (CALABARZON)
BATANGAS
18
CAVITE
20
LAGUNA
15
RIZAL
14
QUEZON
11
REGION IV-B (MIMAROPA)
MARINDUQUE
12
OCCIDENTAL MINDORO
18
ORIENTAL MINDORO
16
ROMBLON
15
PALAWAN
16
REGION V (BICOL)
ALBAY
13
CAMARINES NORTE
11
CAMARINES SUR
12
CATANDUANES
13
MASBATE
16
SORSOGON
14
FORECAST
ANOMALY
DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR
25
23
20
21
21
22
28
28
23
24
24
25
30
29
28
29
27
29
27
26
26
27
26
27
30
28
28
29
29
29
21
16
15
18
21
17
24
23
19
21
20
21
27
26
20
23
23
23
30
30
28
29
26
29
27
26
25
26
26
26
30
27
27
29
29
28
-1
-1
-3
-1
0
-1
-1
0
-1
0
-1
-1
-1
-2
-3
-1
-1
-2
0
1
0
0
-1
0
0
0
-1
-1
0
-1
0
-1
-1
0
0
-1
26
26
25
26
28
29
29
29
29
30
30
30
27
27
27
27
30
29
28
29
24
21
19
21
25
25
25
25
28
28
28
29
30
31
30
31
27
27
27
28
30
30
28
28
0
0
0
0
-1
-1
0
-1
0
-1
-1
0
1
1
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
1
0
-1
15
16
16
21
17
16
19
18
24
19
17
23
23
27
22
18
23
22
24
21
24
27
25
26
23
13
17
15
15
14
13
15
14
19
15
16
19
16
22
16
18
22
23
27
22
18
23
20
24
20
24
27
24
26
22
-3
-1
-2
-2
-2
-2
-1
-2
-2
-2
0
0
-2
-2
-3
1
-1
0
0
0
0
0
-2
0
-1
0
0
-1
0
-1
24
18
22
22
25
25
15
27
22
26
26
28
28
18
30
26
28
29
30
29
19
27
24
25
26
27
27
18
29
27
27
28
29
29
21
18
15
17
19
21
20
14
24
16
20
23
24
24
13
28
21
25
27
28
29
16
30
26
28
30
31
31
18
28
24
25
27
28
28
17
30
27
27
28
28
29
20
-3
-1
-2
-1
-1
-1
-1
0
-2
-2
1
-1
-1
-2
1
-1
-1
1
0
1
-2
0
0
0
1
1
2
-1
1
0
0
1
1
1
-1
1
0
0
0
-1
0
-1
20
26
28
26
29
14
16
22
28
26
28
-3
-4
-4
0
0
-1
18
23
15
16
9
21
27
18
20
10
25
29
22
23
15
24
27
22
23
18
27
30
26
26
22
17
18
11
11
8
17
21
11
10
7
19
23
15
16
7
24
29
20
21
13
22
26
21
22
14
27
31
25
25
19
-1
-2
-4
-3
-3
-1
-2
-4
-6
-2
-2
-4
-3
-4
-3
-1
0
-2
-2
-2
-2
-1
-1
-1
-4
0
1
-1
-1
-3
11
21
17
16
19
11
23
19
18
24
17
25
22
22
28
19
25
23
23
26
23
28
26
25
29
9
16
14
12
15
8
19
15
13
15
7
20
15
14
21
14
24
20
19
28
14
23
20
20
27
20
27
24
23
27
-3
-2
-2
-3
-1
-3
-2
-2
-3
-4
-4
-3
-4
-4
-3
-3
-1
-2
-3
0
-5
-2
-3
-3
1
-3
-1
-2
-2
-2
10
7
10
12
15
10
11
8
11
15
16
10
15
12
16
21
19
12
17
16
18
20
20
15
19
21
20
22
24
18
10
8
9
12
15
11
9
6
8
9
14
8
9
5
8
11
13
8
13
11
14
19
16
8
13
10
13
17
16
11
16
17
18
21
22
14
-3
-3
-3
-1
-1
-3
-1
-1
-2
-3
-1
-2
-2
-3
-3
-4
-3
-2
-2
-1
-2
-2
-3
-4
-4
-6
-5
-3
-4
-4
-3
-4
-2
-1
-2
-4
D
R
Y
D
A
Y
F
O
R
E
C
A
S
T
NORMAL (1981 - 2010)
PROVINCE
OCT
REGION VI (WESTERN VISAYAS)
AKLAN
ANTIQUE
CAPIZ
GUIMARAS
ILOILO
NEGROS OCCIDENTAL
REGION VII (CENTRAL VISAYAS)
NEGROS ORIENTAL
BOHOL
CEBU
SIQUIJOR
REGION VIII (EASTERN VISAYAS)
BILIRAN
EASTERN SAMAR
LEYTE
NORTHERN SAMAR
SAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR)
SOUTHERN LEYTE
REGION IX (ZAMBOANGA PENINSULA)
ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE
ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR
ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY
REGION X (NORTHERN MINDANAO)
BUKIDNON
CAMIGUIN
LANAO DEL NORTE
MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL
MISAMIS ORIENTAL
REGION XI (DAVAO REGION)
COMPOSTELA VALLEY
DAVAO CITY
DAVAO DEL NORTE
DAVAO DEL SUR
DAVAO OCCIDENTAL
DAVAO ORIENTAL
REGION XII (SOCCSKSARGEN)
SOUTH COTABATO
COTABATO
SARANGANI
SULTAN KUDARAT
REGION XIII- CARAGA
AGUSAN DEL NORTE
AGUSAN DEL SUR
DINAGAT ISLANDS
SURIGAO DEL NORTE
SURIGAO DEL SUR
ARMM
BASILAN
MAGUINDANAO
LANAO DEL SUR
SULU
TAWI-TAWI
FORECAST
ANOMALY
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR
16
16
15
15
15
15
18
20
17
19
19
19
22
24
20
23
22
22
24
26
23
26
25
25
24
25
23
25
24
24
27
28
26
26
26
26
12
15
12
15
14
13
17
20
16
19
18
16
19
22
18
21
20
19
22
24
21
24
22
24
22
23
20
21
21
19
25
25
24
23
24
23
-4
-1
-3
0
-1
-2
-1
0
-1
0
-1
-3
-3
-2
-2
-2
-2
-3
-2
-2
-2
-2
-3
-1
-2
-2
-3
-4
-3
-5
-2
-3
-2
-3
-2
-3
17
18
17
19
19
19
19
19
21
20
20
20
24
21
22
21
23
21
22
22
26
25
25
26
16
16
15
17
17
18
16
17
18
19
17
17
23
20
21
20
19
17
18
18
23
23
22
24
-1
-2
-2
-2
-2
-1
-3
-2
-3
-1
-3
-3
-1
-1
-1
-1
-4
-4
-4
-4
-3
-2
-3
-2
15
13
16
13
13
16
15
8
15
9
10
14
16
7
15
8
11
14
20
9
17
11
13
14
19
12
17
15
15
16
21
15
20
18
18
19
12
14
14
12
12
15
12
9
13
8
10
12
13
4
12
5
8
13
12
10
14
12
11
13
14
10
11
9
11
10
16
15
17
17
15
17
-3
1
-2
-1
-1
-1
-3
1
-2
-1
0
-2
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-1
-8
1
-3
1
-2
-1
-5
-2
-6
-6
-4
-6
-5
0
-3
-1
-3
-2
16
16
16
14
14
15
18
19
19
21
22
22
21
21
22
25
24
24
14
14
14
12
12
12
16
16
17
19
19
19
19
19
20
21
20
20
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-3
-2
-3
-2
-2
-3
-3
-2
-2
-2
-4
-4
-4
14
19
16
16
17
17
19
17
15
19
20
21
20
18
21
20
19
22
20
20
19
21
21
21
21
22
25
25
25
25
13
17
14
14
16
15
19
15
13
19
18
20
18
16
19
18
19
20
18
19
17
16
18
18
16
19
24
22
22
23
-1
-2
-2
-2
-1
-2
0
-2
-2
0
-2
-1
-2
-2
-2
-2
0
-2
-2
-1
-2
-5
-3
-3
-5
-3
-1
-3
-3
-2
19
15
16
18
22
21
17
17
16
19
22
17
19
21
20
22
24
18
18
20
19
22
23
17
16
20
19
21
22
16
20
21
21
23
26
20
18
14
16
16
20
19
14
16
15
19
22
15
17
20
18
21
22
16
16
19
17
20
22
16
15
19
17
20
19
14
17
20
18
22
24
17
-1
-1
0
-2
-2
-2
-3
-1
-1
0
0
-2
-2
-1
-2
-1
-2
-2
-2
-1
-2
-2
-1
-1
-1
-1
-2
-1
-3
-2
-3
-1
-3
-1
-2
-3
20
15
22
17
20
17
22
18
23
21
24
22
24
21
24
23
21
20
22
21
24
21
26
23
18
14
20
16
20
16
22
17
21
19
22
19
21
19
22
20
19
19
19
18
22
19
24
19
-2
-1
-2
-1
0
-1
0
-1
-2
-2
-2
-3
-3
-2
-2
-3
-2
-1
-3
-3
-2
-2
-2
-4
18
16
15
16
16
15
15
10
11
12
15
15
8
9
9
13
14
8
7
8
15
14
10
9
9
18
17
13
12
12
16
15
13
14
14
15
14
7
8
11
14
14
6
7
9
11
12
7
6
7
11
12
6
6
7
16
15
12
11
11
-2
-1
-2
-2
-2
0
-1
-3
-3
-1
-1
-1
-2
-2
0
-2
-2
-1
-1
-1
-4
-2
-4
-3
-2
-2
-2
-1
-1
-1
20
16
15
21
21
21
17
18
22
21
25
21
21
26
26
27
22
22
28
28
24
20
21
25
25
26
21
23
26
26
19
14
14
20
20
18
15
16
18
17
23
18
18
24
23
25
19
20
26
27
22
18
18
23
24
22
17
20
22
22
-1
-2
-1
-1
-1
-3
-2
-2
-4
-4
-2
-3
-3
-2
-3
-2
-3
-2
-2
-1
-2
-2
-3
-2
-1
-4
-4
-3
-4
-4
MONTHLY MEAN
TEMPERATURE FORECAST
cooler
slightly warmer
warmer
slightly warmer
average
slightly cooler
(OCTOBER 2021 – MARCH 2022)
warmer
warmer
warmer
slightly warmer
cooler
cooler
warmer
warmer
warmer
warmer
warmer
average
warmer
warmer
average
average
warmer
warmer
warmer
warmer
average
average
cooler
coole
r
average
Slightly
cooler
average
warmer
cooler
cooler
warmer
warmer
warmer
warmer
average
average
warmer
warmer
average
average
FORECAST RANGES OF EXTREME TEMPERATURE
Updated : 22 September 2021
TMAX Summary
Oct-21
Nov-21
Dec-21
Jan-22
Feb-22
Mar-22
Tmax-Range
Tmax-Range
Tmax-Range
Tmax-Range
Tmax-Range
Tmax-Range
Northern Luzon
29.5
37.1
28.4
37.5
28.2
35.2
26.3
35.3
27.2
36.2
29.5
38.0
Lowlands Luzon
29.2
37.0
27.8
39.4
27.2
36.9
26.9
35.7
27.0
36.5
28.8
37.8
Mountainous Luzon
24.9
26.5
25.8
27.5
25.4
27.7
24.8
28.3
25.0
27.1
26.1
28.1
Metro Manila
32.6
35.4
33.3
35.7
32.4
34.7
31.9
35.0
32.1
35.2
34.6
36.7
Lowlands Visayas
32.0
36.1
32.0
36.9
30.3
35.4
30.1
35.0
28.6
38.5
30.5
36.8
Lowlands Mindanao
32.0
36.5
33.0
37.0
31.2
36.7
31.5
36.5
31.6
37.0
32.0
38.3
Mountainous Mindanao
32.0
33.4
31.9
33.6
32.4
33.8
31.6
33.7
32.0
34.7
32.8
34.5
TMIN Summary
Oct-21
Nov-21
Dec-21
Jan-22
Feb-22
Mar-22
Tmin-Range
Tmin-Range
Tmin-Range
Tmin-Range
Tmin-Range
Tmin-Range
Northern Luzon
17.9
24.7
16.7
24.6
13.9
22.6
14.0
20.7
12.3
22.3
14.5
23.0
Lowlands Luzon
17.9
24.9
15.9
25.8
16.0
25.5
15.0
25.3
13.3
24.2
17.1
25.2
Mountainous Luzon
14.0
15.4
12.0
13.4
11.0
13.1
9.1
11.6
9.1
11.6
10.8
13.8
Metro Manila
21.6
24.8
20.5
25.7
19.0
24.9
17.9
24.5
17.4
22.8
19.3
24.5
Lowlands Visayas
20.0
25.5
20.0
24.8
18.7
24.5
18.9
25.0
17.1
24.4
18.8
24.6
Lowlands Mindanao
18.3
24.2
19.0
24.2
19.3
23.8
18.6
23.0
17.6
23.2
17.5
23.8
Mountainous Mindanao
17.2
19.0
15.2
17.6
14.3
17.0
14.0
16.5
12.0
15.4
14.0
17.0
OCTOBER
2021
2 OR 3
JANUARY
2022
0 OR 1
NOVEMBER
2021
2 OR 3
FEBRUARY
2022
0 or 1
1 OR 2
MARCH
2022
0 or 1
DECEMBER
2021
Tropical Cyclone Wind Signals
❑
Warning signals are based on wind speed.
TC WIND
SIGNAL
NO. 1
TC WIND
SIGNAL
NO. 2
TC WIND
SIGNAL
NO. 3
TC WIND
SIGNAL
NO. 4
30 -60 KPH
61- 120KPH
120 - 170 KPH
170- 220 KPH
>220KPH
36 HRS
24 HRS
18 HRS
12 HRS
12 HRS
TD
TS/STS
TY
TY
STY
TC WIND
SIGNAL
NO. 5
Tropical Cyclone Classification
Tropical cyclone intensity is based on the strength of the wind.
TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
(local name)
TROPICAL
STORM
(international
name)
SEVERE
TROPICAL
STORM
TYPHOON
89 - 117 KPH
118-220 KPH
SUPER
TYPHOON
Introduced 2015
Since 2015
≤61 KPH
62-88 KPH
>220KPH
Tropical Cyclone-Threat Potential
Initialization: 21 September 2021 @8am
Forecast Summary:
LPA2
LPA1
Week 1 (September 22 – September 28, 2021)
LPA1
As of today, a low pressure vortex (LPA1) exists inside the western section of the
Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). It has a low likelihood of becoming a
Tropical Cyclone (TC) and will likely move towards Vietnam. Moreover, another
low pressure vortex (LPA2) will likely form outside the PAR. Recent forecast data
suggest that it has a high likelihood of becoming a TC but will likely recurve
towards Southern Japan before entering the PAR.
Week 2 (September 29 – October 5, 2021)
Low likelihood of a low pressure vortex formation near or within the PAR.
Therefore, no active TC-threat during the forecast period. However, any changes
in the forecast will be closely monitored.
Note: The information contained herein are based on the 6-hourly forecasts of the NCEP-GEFS issued
in the past 24hrs where the CWB TC Tracking algorithm was applied. This product was part of the
collaboration between PAGASA and CWB through the MECO/TECO VOTE Project. This is for guidance
purposes only.
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA)
SUMMARY
 ENSO Alert System Status: LA NINA ALERT
 There is a 70-80% chance of La Niña forming in the last quarter of 2021 which may
persist until the first quarter of 2022.
 Forecast Rainfall:
• October - December 2021: generally near normal (NN) to above normal (AN) rainfall
conditions in most parts of the country, and the probability of AN is high;
• January – March 2022: generally NN - AN rainfall conditions in most parts of Southern
Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao (with higher probability of AN), except for some provinces in
the CAR, Region 1 and Region 3 where below normal (BN) rainfall conditions are likely.
 Forecast temperature ranges from near average to above average over most areas of
the country, except in some parts of northern Luzon and Visayas where below average
temperatures are expected during the forecast period;
 5 – 8 tropical cyclones are expected to enter/develop in the PAR from October 2021 –
March 2022.
PAGASA will continue to closely monitor the
climate conditions that may affect the country and
updates/advisories shall be issued as appropriate.
Tentative schedule of next CF:
20 October 2021
33
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