ENMATH 4 ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS Sampling distributions and point of estimation Reporter: Nicole Gamase Ma. Victoria Espiritu BSABE-3B SAMPLING AND DISTRIBUTION AND POINT OF ESTIMATION Sampling Distribution A sampling distribution is a probability distribution of a statistic obtained from a larger number of samples drawn from a specific population. The sampling distribution of a given population is the distribution of frequencies of a range of different outcomes that could possibly occur for a statistic of a population. EXAMPLE: Instead of polling asking 1000 owners what cat food their per prefers, you could repeat your poll multiple times. SUBTOPICS: Point of Estimation Sampling distribution and the Central Theorem General concept of point estimation POINT ESTIMATION POINT ESTIMATE An estimate of a population parameter given by a single number is called estimate. POINT ESTIMATOR A point estimator is a statistic for estimating the population parameter e and will be denoted by e* POINT AND INTERVAL ESTIMATION: Point estimation When a single value is used as an estimate, the estimate is called a point estimate of population parameter. Interval estimation Generally, there are situations where point estimation is not desirable and we are interested in finding limits with in which the parameter would be expected to lie is called an interval estimation. CONFIDENCE INTERVAL EXAMPLE: PROPERTIES OF POINT ESTIMATORS 1. BIAS -The bias of a point estimator is defined as the difference between the expected value of the estimator and the value of the parameter being estimated. 2. CONSISTENCY -Tells us how close the point estimator stays to the value of the parameter as it increases in size. 3. MOST EFFICIENT OR UNBIASED -The most efficient point estimator is the one with the smallest variance of all the unbiased and consistent estimators. SAMPLING DISTRIBUTION OF THE SAMPLE MEAN Inferential testing uses the sample mean (x) to estimate the population mean (µ). Typically, we use the data from a single sample, but there are many possible samples of the same size that could be drawn from that population. the distribution of the sample mean will have a mean equal to µ. it will have a standard deviation (standard error) equal to σ/√n EXAMPLE: THE CENTRAL LIMIT THEOREM It states that the sampling distribution of the sample means will approach a normal distribution as the sample size increases. There are 3 different components of the central limit theorem: µ= is the population σ= is the population standard deviation n= is the sample size TO CALCULATE THE CLT EXAMPLE: The age that American females first have intercourse is on average 17.4 years, with a standard deviation of approximately 2 years ("The Kinsey institute," 2013). This random variable is not normally distributed, though it is somewhat mound shaped. a. State the random variable. b. Suppose a sample of 35 American females is taken. Find the probability that the mean age that these 35 females first had intercourse is more than 21 years. SOLUTION: SAMPLING DISTRIBUTION OF THE SAMPLE PROPORTION The population proportion (p) is a parameter that is as commonly estimated as the mean. It is just as important to understand the distribution of the sample proportion, as the mean. The sample proportion is calculated by: where x is the number of elements in your population with the characteristic and n is the sample size SAMPLING DISTRIBUTION OF THE SAMPLE PORTION EXAMPLE: EXAMPLE: Suppose that in a population of voters in a certain region 38% are in favor of particular bond issue. Nine hundred randomly selected voters are asked if they favor the bond issue. 1.Verify that the sample proportion p^ computed from samples of size 900 meets the condition that its sampling distribution be approximately normal. 2.Find the probability that the sample proportion computed from a sample of size 900 will be within 5 percentage points of the true population proportion. SOLUTION: GENERAL CONCEPT OF POINT ESTIMATION Point estimation, in statistics, the process of finding an approximate value of some parameter such as the average of a population from random samples of the population. A point estimate of a parameter θ is a value that is a sensible guess for θ A point estimate is obtained by a formula (“estimator”) which takes the sample data and produces an point estimate. Formulas are called point estimators of θ. Different samples produce different estimates, even though you use the same estimator. Thank you for listening!!