Democratization
What is democratization?
3 basic components:
– 1. ending an
authoritarian regime;
– 2- installing a
democratic regime;
– 3- consolidating a
democratic regime
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Different causes may
be responsible for
each of these
developments.
(Samuel Huntington)
End of an authoritarian regime: capture
of Saddam Hussein, Dec. 2003.
VARIOUS THEORIES OF THE CAUSES OF
DEMOCRATIZATION: A Partial List
• High overall level of
economic wealth
• Relatively equal
distribution of wealth
• A market economy
• Economic
development and
social modernization
More theories on the causes of democratization
* A feudal aristocracy at some
point in the history of the
society
* Absence of feudalism in the
society
* A strong bourgeoisie
* High levels of literacy and
education
* Protestantism
* Low levels of civil violence
* Low levels of political
polarization
Does a Protestant ethic lead to
democracy? Martin Luther
preaching.
(picture:
http://web.uvic.ca/shakespeare/Library/SLT/ideas/protestantism.h
tml)
Yet more theories on the causes of
democratization
* Political leaders
committed to
democracy
* Experience as a British
colony
* Traditions of tolerance
and compromise
* Occupation by a prodemocratic foreign
power
*Communal homogeneity
Picture:http://www.madeiraedu.pt/estabensino/ebssantana/comenius/simbols
_of_colonialism.htm
Experience as a British colony: “The British
Colossus,” (1892) depicting British
expansionist Cecil Rhodes straddling
Britain’s African “possessions”.
3 “waves” of democratization
1. 1818-1926: France, Britain, U.S.,
etc.
 2- 1943-1965: West Germany, Italy,
Austria, Japan, Korea, Columbia,
Venezuela, etc.
 3. 1974-1995 (?): Portugal, Greece,
Turkey (again), Brazil, former East
Bloc countries

The “Third Wave:” What and
Who was the 3rd wave?

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about 30 countries with auth systems shifted to
democratic political systems in the 1970s and
1980s
they were:
* diverse – one-party systems, military
regimes, personal dictatorships, racial
oligarchy (S. Africa)
*many were “second try” democracies –
leaders had learned from previously
unsuccessful experiences and tried again –
Spain, Portugal, Greece, Poland
* many emerged after 1989 with fall of the
USSR
Explaining the Third Wave:
key variables

deepening legitimacy problems of authoritarian systems in
a world where democratic norms becoming increasingly
accepted

global economic growth  expanded middle class

transformation of churches (especially the Catholic Church):
from being a defender of the status quo to opponents of
authoritarianism

changes in the policies of external actors (i.e. new attitude
of the EEC/EU, shift in U.S. policies)

“snowball” effects

(Samuel Huntington)
More general explanations:
Democratic Correlates
Encouraging democracy?
Council of Europe flags
1. Historical sequences:
Contestation, then inclusion  MUTUAL SECURITY
Can’t wait
for
democracy:
an Otpor
baby in
Serbia
Problem: it is
very difficult
today to
legitimately
deny
contestation
2. Growing wealth that occurs in such a way as to
promote the growth of an educated middle class
Remember! ECONOMICS ALONE IS NOT ENOUGH TO DETERMINE
WHETHER OR NOT A PLACE BECOMES DEMOCRATIC.
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–
–
–
–
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Most wealthy countries ARE democratic.
Most democratic countries are wealthy -- India a dramatic exception.
Examples of countries with high incomes in the 1970s that were NOT
democratic:
the USSR
Bulgaria
Poland
Hungary, Spain, and Portugal
S.Arabia, Libya, Kuwait had per capita incomes of over $4,000 in the mid
1970s, but they didn’t become democratic
Iraq, Iran, and Singapore -- in the 1980s had high income and low democracy.
Why would higher incomes not necessarily
bring democracy?
3. Pro-democratic
external influences
Example: the European
Union
Words of Advice for would-be
democratizers:
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mobilize large-scale NON-violent opposition (the evidence suggests
that guerrilla movements and revolutions are NOT good ways to
bring about democracy, although they may secure liberation)
seek support from the center, and if necessary, the conservative
right
restrain the left and keep them from dominating the agenda of the
movement
woo sections of the military
seek sympathetic support from the media and other governments,
especially the U.S.
Once in power, secure safeguards for the rights of the opposition
(Myron Weiner, advice based on
large-scale analysis)
SEVERAL FACTORS THAT CAN BUT DO NOT
NECESSARILY IMPEDE DEMOCRATIZATION
1 – foreign intervention or support for an authoritarian regime
Examples: Iran, Chile
2- a highly skewed income
3- significant ethnic diversity with a recent history of conflict; the
presence of subcultures
– Note: Democracy does exist in countries with highly diverse
populations – i.e. Canada, the U.S.
– Another note: Problems tend to be worse when there are two
main groups, one majority and the other minority. Multi-cultural
countries tend to have fewer problems.