Vietnam Insight E-book Introduction A message from Managing Director Welcome to Kantar’s Insight Ebook 2021, the special edition. I know all of us still face many challenges caused by the on-going COVID-19 pandemic. The escalation of the situation globally has resulted in many uncertainties and unpredictable effects on economic and business activities that we might not yet fully observe. As a consequence, this will continue to make consumer daily lives, and their behaviors evolve with more complexity. Vietnam, relatively speaking was less impacted thanks to the significant efforts from the government, local authorities and citizens since the very beginning. Vietnam was one of the few countries sustaining a positive GDP growth in 2020 whereas many 1 Fabrice Carrasco Managing Director, Vietnam & Philippines Asia Strategic Projects Director Worldpanel Division, Kantar other economies experienced a negative performance. However, it was still a very tough year for Vietnam with not only COVID-19 but also other disasters hitting the country during the year such as droughts, storms and floods, slowing down the economic development with a 30-year low. Therefore, we wanted to focus this 2021 special edition Insight Ebook to share with you what we have learnt throughout 2020, and then giving perspective and outlook for 2021 and beyond. We hope that it will help you well prepare for the future and draw up business strategies to return and to surpass your targets this year. We wish to continue contributing to your success! Introduction Dear Friends and Partners, 2 2020 will be a year that nobody forgets. Globally, the pandemic impacted our lives and daily routines, which were thrown upside down thanks to mass lockdowns and the resultant public health crisis. We see Vietnam’s GDP growth stutter with an increased concern for job security, and lower incomes, which will likely lead to less demand for products and services. In such context, we also witness that Vietnamese consumers have showed a fast response to the development of the COVID-19 situation, reflected from the way people interact with friends and family, to the way they shop and the media they consume, leading to changes in their spending priorities and purchasing behaviors as well. market during 2020 are the acceleration of online shopping and the evolution of retail landscape toward modern formats, the higher priority on health and wellbeing but from reactive approach to proactive health care and the shift to value and essentials among Vietnamese consumers amid the COVID-19. The ability to embrace these changes in order to anticipate and meet consumers’ emerging needs will be a competitive advantage for businesses. In fact, we do see many brands achieving healthy growth or at least minimizing the loss by moving fast to capture new growth opportunities, given a challenging business environment. With this 2021 special edition Insight Ebook, we want to help you better understand the key That said FMCG market benefited from the changes in people’s behaviors in order for your crisis with more time spent at home and businesses to not only react in time but also products such as packaged foods, and hygiene realize the opportunities in front of you. items being bought and used more. Some of the top things we have observed in FMCG Happy reading! Peter Christou Commercial Director, Vietnam Worldpanel Division, Kantar Table of Contents 9 Things to Remember in 2020 The Positive Growth of Vietnam Economy Divergence & Polarization in Consumer Behavior Higher Priority on Health & Immunity The Extreme Focus on Hygiene and Sanitation Online FMCG Shopping Habits Updates in 2020 Polarizing Health & Beauty Market Growing Sustainability Concern Modern Trade Prosperity in Rural The Role of Gifting The Shift to Value & Essentials Outlook in 2021 and beyond Vietnam Economy: Optimistic for 2021 Prospects for FMCG: A Regional Perspective What’s Next for Health & Well-being? Tet Gifting Evolution Quality Assurance 3 About Kantar & Contributors 04 05 08 11 00 17 23 28 31 36 41 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 9 Things to Remember in 2020 4 Vietnam economy sustained growth amid COVID-19 5 6 5 2 1.9 0.2 -1.5 -2.5 -2.8 -4.4 -5 nd Th ai la al ay sia M di a bo m Ca sia La os in a Ch do ne In M ya nm ar -10 -8.3 ne s -7.1 pi -7.5 Ph ilip -6 ld 0 W or 2.5 2.8 Vi et na m Despite a prolong impact of COVID-19 on Vietnam, resulting in the deceleration of GDP growth as the lowest growth rate over the past 10 years, it is still considered as a success compared to other countries amid the health crisis. The CPI remains stable coupled with the fast rebound of retail sales of consumer goods given a challenging business environment and rising consumer concerns about job security and income. This holds promising prospects for Vietnam in 2021. GDP growth - World Bank’s forecast percent While most countries are still in different levels of lockdown with a continued increase of new cases, businesses and activities in Vietnam have resumed operation since early quarter 2 thanks to well coping with COVID-19 pandemic from the very beginning. As such, Vietnam economy currently shows strong growth patterns, particularly in the last two quarters of 2020, making it become one of the few economies sustaining a positive performance in 2020. Bright economic outlook in 2021 • FDI was hit hard in 2020. However, given the successful containment of COVID-19 in Vietnam together with the vaccine rollout plan at global level, Vietnam remains a potential destination to invest in. • In the first three months of the year, almost 35,000 businesses went bankrupt, urban unemployment rate hits 10-year high in Vietnam (3.7%), yet ranked as top 10 countries having the lowest figures. (Vnexpress / Vietnamtimes) Vietnam’s Economic Outlook 24.5 GDP Growth % 24.2 Retail Sales of Consumer Goods CPI 18.7 16.0 12.6 9.1 9.2 6.8 10.6 5.9 6.6 5.3 5.4 9.5 6.7 6.0 4.1 10.2 6.2 2.7 12.0 6.8 3.5 12.4 7.1 12.7 6.8 7.0 3.5 2.8 2.9 3.2 9-10% 6-6.9% 3.2 0.6 • Export and Import sustain a healthy growth at 7% and 4% respectively, promising a fast recovery in 2021 once borders reopen. • Following the COVID-19 pandemic, environmental issues (climate changes, air pollution, plastic pollution,…) become one of top concerns to cope with. • The unforeseen and unpredictable development of COVID19 still has a certain impact on consumer demands and habits. 7 Source: GSO Vietnam 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 EXPECTATION for the next 5 years 2015 2016 2017 GDP 6% ~7% from 2018 2019 2020 CPI 3% ~4% from 2021F Divergence & Polarization in Consumer Behavior 8 Top concerns among Vietnamese households under COVID-19 (Rank change vs Q4 2019) 1 Health & Wellness 2 3 4 5 6 Food Safety Under the context of the health crisis, there are emerging concerns among Vietnamese consumers. They more worry not only about health but also about the financial situation and the rising cost of living as a result of the economic impact of the pandemic. This will considerably influence their priorities and spending habits in 2021. We witness that Vietnamese people show a fast response to the development of the pandemic over time. While more than half of them still see optimistic future, more people are not confident about their financial status compared to the pre-COVID-19 level. Moreover, the future perspective is not the same among different consumer groups as Households Income Job Security Enviromental Pollution Natural Disasters there are different effects of COVID-19 on each group (income, region, age, etc...). This will be reflected on how they respond and behave differently in the coming time, leading to a polarization and divergence of preferences and choices. Some of the trends we could expect to see as the situation evolves are down-trading and more belt-tightening for future needs, especially among lower income groups. On the opposite side, people with higher incomes might seek for more treats and indulgences to improve wellbeing and quality of life. Therefore, understanding what has been changing in each consumer group is critical to anticipate future demands and trends to win over them. The economic situation will be better or the same as today in the next 12 months Movement control order was lifted in May 86 Very first infected cases % Agree in Urban 4 key cities Source: Worldpanel Division | Households Panel | Urban Vietnam 4 key cities | Updated to Q4 2020 74 62 42 Avg 2019 9 80 News of second wave in Danang Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Source: Worldpanel Division | Households Panel | Urban Vietnam 4 key cities Q3 2020 Q4 2020 In the upcoming 12 months, do you think that the financial situation in your house… The lower income, the more sensitive and worried they are. The products/services targeting to this group of consumers can focus more on the messages about affordability/ value for money to win consumers’ hearts. % Agree in Urban 4 key cities How do you evaluate the current financial situation of your Household? 3 16 7 9 8 5 8 29 41 44 45 43 47 48 33 40 42 8 7 7 7 7 12 6 Avg 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Total HH Will get much worst 10 41 Will get worst Will remain the same Will slightly improve Source: Worldpanel Division | Households Panel | Urban Vietnam 4 key cities Will strongly improve 6 7 We are not doing well at all HH Income >10 - <=17mln We need to deprive ourselves sometims 47 22 10 8 12 3 HH Income <=10mln 21 50 49 43 3 29 30 36 43 4 7 It comes out correctly 8 HH Income >17 - <=26mln HH Income <26mln We have enough money to allow us some extras once in a while No finacial worries, we don’t need to pay attention Source: Worldpanel Division | Households Panel | Urban Vietnam 4 key cities | Updated to Q3 2020 Higher Priority on Health & Immunity 11 As lifestyle diseases (e.g., obesity, stress) become commonplace, health rises to be a top priority among Vietnamese consumers. With the accessibility of health information online, consumers deepen their understanding of health and more cautious about anything they consume. Appearing at the end of 2019, Covid-19 has a great influence on health perception and budget of consumers, which leads to the some major changes in Healthrelated trends. Of all the drinking motivations, Health accounts for 13% with very diverse needs. Besides improving health, new motivations are emerging including detox, skin beauty, support digestion. Three key trends in nutritional market are believed to become norm one day: plant-based nutrition drinks, sugar reduction, and immunity boosters. 12 1 2 3 Vietnamese consumers are eating and drinking plantbased alternatives that are perceived to be natural and healthier. The category enjoys healthy growth, which is driven by both buyer base expansion and consumption uplifting among current buyers. Being more aware of potential health problems, Less/ No-Sugar products are increasingly chosen and become more attractive. Liquid Milk, RTD Tea, CSD and mostly recently is Soya Milk witnessed an impressive performance of total Less/No-Sugar segment. Consumers are now consciously and actively managing their diet to prevent illness and stay healthy –incorporating health boosters. In a year upended by COVID-19, it seems as if our immune systems have received more attention than ever before. Towards Healthier Consumption What’s driving this trend? Drinking motivation? 79% 13% of Vietnamese agree they are ready to pay a higher price for healthier foods (2019) As lifestyle diseases (e.g. obesity, stress) become commonplace, health rises to be a top priority among urban Vietnamese consumers. Of all the drinking motivations, Health accounts for 13% with very diverse needs. 15% of Vietnam’s 95 million population has mental illness due to stress, especially amongst the youth for stress in work or school (2019) 87% Health motivations Other motivations • Improve Health • Detox • Support Digestion • Sleep Well • For Skin Beauty • Control Weight Who? Female, age group of 19-34 and above 45+ YO have more health drinking purpose 3 Trends To Inspire Initiatives Plant based nutritional drink 13 Source: Kantar Worldpanel | Drinking Usage Study 2019 | Vietnam 4 key urban cities | Non alcohol beverages and Nutrition - VnExpress, Vietnam Insider Shifting away from sugar Immunity Boosters 1. Plant Based Nutrition Drink Category performance Val growth % +5.1 48.5 47.3 12.9 Vietnamese consumers are eating and drinking plant-based alternatives that are perceived to be natural and healthier. The category enjoys a healthy growth, which is driven by both buyer base expansion and consumption uplifting among current buyers. 12.1 Top Growing Segment +13.2 value share % | value growth % 50.9 12.1 +342% +17% 11% 6% MAT Q3’20 Soya base Rice base Other nuts base MAT Q3’18 MAT Q3’19 Volume per buyer (L) 83% MAT Q3’20 Penetration % +7% Top Drinking Occasion? % drinking occasion Index vs total NAB Regular/everyday drink 26 24 While having meal 21 Doing activities 11 Break from work/study 14 218 139 114 Doing housework 4 131 While working/studying 4 76 Drink after work Source: Kantar Worldpanel | Household Panel & Drinking Usage Study 2019 | Vietnam 4 key urban cities | Plant-based drinks | MAT 64 2 76 2. Shifting Away from Sugar Liquid Milk - %Volume 8.1 9.4 Being more aware of potential health problems, Less sugar/ No-Sugar products are increasingly chosen and become attractive. This trend is believed to be a norm one day. 9.7 18.8 19.7 MAT Q3’18 12.5 20.4 MAT Q3’19 Less Sweetened RTD tea no/ less sugar Milo new less sugar variant % No/less sugar buyer among RTD Tea buyers MAT Q3’20 3.6 MAT P4’18 4.3 MAT P4’19 MAT P4’20 Plain % penetration of Less Sugar Segment of Soya Milk Vinamilk and TH less sugar Liquid Milk 11.1 “I prefer to buy low/ free sugar drinks” - % Agree 3.3 71 63 Probi less sugar and Probi light (less fat) 15 2010 Source: Worldpanel Division | Households Panel & Lifestyle Survey 2018 | Urban 4 Cities Vietnam 2019 Soya milk less sugar variant MAT Q3’19 MAT Q3’20 3. Immunity Boosters “Consumers seek immunity-boosting and nutrition products, especially for seniors and kids who are at higher risk. Therefore, specialty milk powder and drinking yogurt are more favored to stay healthy” – Consumer and retail changes with COVID-19, Worldpanel Division, Kantar 16 Consumers are now consciously and actively managing their diet to prevent illness and stay healthy –incorporating health boosters Successful case & how: Vinamilk Probi Vietnam 4 key urban cities | Drinking Yogurt | YTD P5’20 vs YA • Engaged with current situation: immunization and flu prevention message • Targeting all family members, including the senior who is more vulnerable under COVID impact. At the same time, launching new flavor honey curcumin and pushing for the whole portfolio. • Embrace digital/ online channel: social media, digital content. • Result: Trips +34%, Penetration +3pts. The Extreme Focus on Hygiene and Sanitation 17 More hygienefocused for now. Natural on hold but still in consideration. 18 With sudden changes in daily hygiene routine in light of the Covid-19 pandemic the personal care market has been reshaped in 2020 as we have witnessed an increased focus on hand and body hygiene categories. Thanks to the support of large governmental communication campaigns – everyone has ever heard or seen the corona virus handwashing song at least once last year – consumers have been reminded that good handwashing practices and sanitizing several times a day are still the number one way to protect oneself from this pandemic. As a result, basic hygiene habits have been magnified and consumers have been seeking more for anti infection products as a contributing effort to prevent any risk of disease. Hand sanitizer flew off the shelves as what has become an ‘essential’ Covid-19 sanitary item and alongside this hand and body soap also soared. Natural ingredients and environmentally friendly products might not have been the buzz this year across FMCG categories. However, consumers are gradually more and more seeking for products that address those concerns. As a matter of fact, products that promote natural ingredients and environmentally friendly impact remained one of the fastest growing segments within Home Care this year again. So without a doubt it’s safe to say that this trend is not completely out of mind and it is likely to be back this year as consumers will ultimately pay even more attention to the end benefits of ingredients impacting to their body or the planet. Brands should therefore continue to focus on communicating end benefits and well-known source to trigger attention. Growing demand for personal hygiene products Hand Wash Sanitizer Market grew by Market grew by 96% The Covid-19 outbreak in 2020 has given a strong boost for the demand for hygiene products / categories. As a result, the market is getting even more fragmented with several new players eager to grasp some share of cake. +41 1065% +131 Active variants to the market 2019 2020 An incremental of 2019 442k Households 2019 2020 2020 An incremental of % of HH that purchased Hand wash 19 Source: Worldpanel Division | Households Panel | Urban 4 Cities Vietnam | FY 2020 vs YA 541k Households 19.2% 2019 +23.6% Hygiene was the only segment that enjoyed positive growth Active variants to the market 45.3% 32% Shower Gel 1.7% *Shower gel market grew by 5% 2020 % of HH that purchased Sanitizer Vietnam Lifebuoy Hand wash: be ready, be positive • Engaged with current situation: COVID-related ads & communications, “Tram rua tay da chien” campaign which provides hand sink and hand wash across Vietnam by invite consumers to participate in donating through dance competition “Ghen Co Vy”, new launches: antibacterial wet tissues and hand sanitizer to capture rising consumer need for hygiene and health prevention. • Embrace digital/ online channel: social media, digital content. • Leverage partnership with retailers: both online platforms and offline stores 20 COVID period* vs YA Keep engaged by creating digital contents with positive messages • Category growth in CPR: +340% Fast response to emerging consumer needs with new launches: hand sanitizer, wet tissue • Lifebuoy growth in CRP: +215% (+385,800 new households in Urban 4 cities) Stand with communities and embrace corporate social responsibility Hygiene and healthier eating habit will be expected to carry on post Covid What are the behaviours that you think you’re most likely to maintain once the lockdown is over? 60 59 55 Wave 4 52 49 50 40 40 35 33 31 30 29 24 20 10 0 Increased overall hygiene 21 Eat healthier Spending time with the people in my household Online shopping Using online media Focus on my personal development Working from home Connecting virtually Social media apps usage Reading The Rise of Nature/ Sensitive Segment in Homecare Nature/ Sensitive across Home Care CRP growth (%) in FY20 vs FY19 Total Category Nature/ Sensitive 38.1 5.9 0.9 -1.7 Detergent Nature/ Sensitive segment has gained traction across major homecare categories, driven by up-trading economy users and converting fragrance lovers. 170.9 -5.0 Dishwashing Liquid Fabric Softener Top Segments converted by Nature/ Sensitive Up-trading low tier users Converting fragrance lovers Top Performers within Nature/ Sensitive In buyers change FY20 vs FY19 Detergent 22 Source: Kantar – Worldpanel Division – Households Panel – Urban 4 key cities – Excluding Gift Dishwashing Liquid Fabric Softener Online FMCG Shopping Habits Updates in 2020 23 24 Online remains one of the fastest growing channels for FMCG in Vietnam. More and more families adopting this channel as part of their FMCG shopping habits is the main driver behind this expansion and the Covid-19 outbreak this year clearly acted as a catalyst. Even post the first waves of panic purchases, when shopper channel choice is returning to normal, online maintains. Channel basket and spend shift account for a significant portion of online growth but not only! Incrementality within the channel (i.e., the same shopper repeats its purchase within the channel and spend more) is also important for non-food categories. This indicates that new shoppers’ attraction and shoppers’ loyalty are both equally important in driving online value growth today. Close to 5% of FMCG annual value spent is now generated by online shopping habits and this will continue to increase in coming future given current context combined with the rapid expansion of the competition and offer to attract shoppers. Personal Care products enjoy highest penetration and frequency today within the channel. However, purchase for Home Care products have started to take off as well. In fact, Home Care categories lead for the spend growth within online over the past 2 years. Considering the growth of online and that it does help in getting incremental growth, it is a channel which any manufacturer should keep focusing on and adapt their strategy as it evolves. Promotion is one of the key drivers for shoppers to shop online hence offering attractive and disruptive schemes together with engaging product display and stories are likely help build online penetration further. Online – FMCG Penetration % - 12 w/e Vietnamese households shopping for FMCG Online keeps expanding and Covid-19 outbreak this year acted as a catalyst. As penetration shoot up this year, when comparing Vietnam with other SEA countries, a 6% gap has opened up versus Thailand. Urban (4 cities): HCMC 25 34.5% MAT Q2’20 Hanoi 20 Rural 15 Urban: 28.2% MAT Q2’20 10 Urban: 23.1% MAT Q2’20 5 25 Source: Worldpanel Division | Household panel | Urban 4 key cities | FMCG Excluding Gift 12w/e... 12w/e... 12w/e... 12w/e... 12w/e... 12w/e... 12w/e... 12w/e... 12w/e... 12w/e... 12w/e... 12w/e... 12w/e... 12w/e... 12w/e... 12w/e... 12w/e... 12w/e... 12w/e... 12w/e... 12w/e... 12w/e... 12w/e... 12w/e... 12w/e... 12w/e... 12w/e... 12w/e... 12w/e... 12w/e... 12w/e... 12w/e... 12w/e... 12w/e... 12w/e... 12w/e... 0 12w/e... Urban: 13% MAT Q2’20 Which family buy FMCG online today? Who is shopping? % households • Convenience. • Wide/ better range of choice. • Attractive and unique deals. • Price comparison. • Availability of information. Channel behavior In HCMC (56%, index 102 vs. All Retailers). Penetration % Housewife under 40 y.o (46%, index 134 vs. All Retailers). Repeat rate (*) % Families with 4+ members (72%, index 110 vs. All Retailers) Families with kids (44%, index 124 vs. All Retailers) High income families (30%, index 124 vs. All Retailers) 26 Strengths Value Loyalty (**) 34.5% (1.04 mil HHs) 63% Frequency (times/year) 4.8 10% Online shoppers spend Online The remaining 90% is spent in other channels Spend per trip 329k/trip (*) Repeat rates - % of shoppers shopping more than once in the channel. (**) Value loyalty shows basket share of channel shoppers for this channel when buying FMCG Online Top Key Categories Top Recruiting Categories Based on index of value share vs MT Beauty & Cosmetics 27 Based on Penetration change Mom & Baby 1 Lip Make-up 1 Baby Diaper 1 Facial wash 2 Facial Moisturizer 2 Infant Cereal 2 Hand Hygiene 3 Face Make-up 3 IFT Milk Powder 3 Toothpaste 4 Fragrance 4 Shampoo 5 Mask 5 Shower Gel An In-depth Understanding of China E-commerce One of the world’s most advanced Ecommerce market Jason Yu Managing Director, Greater China Kantar Worlpdanel 28 The main source of FMCG E-commerce growth The future growth of FMCG Ecommerce In the past, Ecommerce platforms sell more niche, high end and imported products in China, but now the price gap between online and offline has increasingly narrowed. As more and more consumers are used to buying their daily essentials through online channels, it presents more cannibalization to brick and mortar stores. However, the online channel still generates sizable incremental sales especially on emerging products and categories. Penetration in FMCG Ecommerce still has room to improve from the current 70% mark, especially among older demographics and consumers living in lower tier cities and rural China. Additionally, Ecommerce is not only considered as a sales channel, but a key marketing channel for brands as they start to build innovations out of this channel i.e. live streaming or short videos to engage consumers and also provide a holistic place for social media and content marketing. Brands will be able to fully digitize their consumer experience journey throughout the wider Ecommerce ecosystem, helping them achieve successful brand building and shopper acquisition at the same time. Along the development of Ecommerce from expansion to maturity stage in China, we will likely observe an increasing convergence of offers. Some brands will reduce their physical store presence and put their focus mainly on Ecommerce platforms. On the other hand, as consumers buy more categories online from tier 1 group to tier 2/3 group, it means an The increased diversity of online repertoire. expansion in their basket size and shopping frequency. With a lot of online promotions pushed through In addition to non-FMCG items such as fashion, electronics, Ecommerce festivals like Double 11, their spending on etc., FMCG products like baby care and cosmetic FMCG via online channel will further increase. categories (skincare, makeup) are still tier 1 categories with highest penetration in China. However, the COVID-19 crisis boosted their online penetration by an unprecedented seven percentage points or more, according to Kantar Worldpanel China’s data in 2020. Furthermore, we are also seeing tier 2/3 categories such as personal wash, paper products and hair care products rapidly growing through online, indicating an enormous potential to further expand. Polarizing Health & Beauty Market 29 COVID-19 has transformed the beauty industry all around the world which Vietnam is not an exception. When some categories related to health and hygiene benefit from pandemic, the others either sustain or suffer severe impact. 1 Growth Categories • Sectors that are doing better than before the pandemic due to increased awareness of hygiene, including handwash & care, mouth rinse • Sectors benefit from the movement from out of home to in-home (Hair colorant) and stocking up for in-home consumption (Diaper, Sanitary Napkin) 2 Stable Categories Sectors are unlikely to be impacted by pandemic since they are considered as essential products and already penetrated most of household (Shampoo, Shower Gel, Toothpaste, Toothbrush) 3 Impact Categories • V shape recovery: Before the pandemic, they are rising sectors. The disruption caused by the pandemic has impacted in these developing categories, yet they rebound quickly right after movement control order lifted (Skin care, Sun Protection) • L shape recovery: They are low penetrated categories and are regarded as nice-to-have products. Then the pandemic hits hardly on these categories which take them longer time to come back to normal (Make up, Perfume & Deodorant, Hair styling) 30 Vietnam witnesses a much brighter picture than fellow Asia Health & Beauty markets, even well-established ones such as China & Korea – with most of the sub-categories maintain good growth. However, Make up is a category still suffering across all Asia due to less going out occasions. Personal care Recovery (Sales CH% YTD on YTD) 31 China Korea Taiwan Thailand Vietnam Indonesia Personal Care Body Care Hair Care Skin Care Make Up Source: Worldpanel Division | Household panel | Asia Beauty Report 2020 On-going Beauty Trend? Premiumization Continues to Prevail Despite Pandemic Premiumization is seen in Personal care and become vital engine of growth of this sector. Although there is financial concern during pandemic, Personal care manages to upgrade thanks to support from High income group. Online and Health & Beauty stores are key for premium offers Fiercer competition The competition in personal care became fiercer with the joining of new innovations which places a pressure on big manufacturers to extend their product lines beside protecting the core Special Ingredient Products Beauty Trend Eco Friendly Solutions From Manufacturers: “Green” & eco-friendly offerings/solutions i.e. recycle materials, “natural” design to protect nature & environment and promote sustainable living From Consumers: Consumers approve the idea of environment friendly packaging rather them bringing their own packages to the store 32 More and more consumers are buying into the category of dermatological. Emerging pharmaceutical products (Cetaphil, La Roche Posay, Bioderma, Vichy, Eucerin, Neutrogena…) with light ingredients suitable for all skin types are now recommended by experts & adopted more by consumers. The introduction of ingredients for specific skin problems & create great improvements (AHA/ BHA, retinol, vitamin C, Niacinamide…) Advanced Technology All players are leveraging advanced applications of technology (chatbot, virtual try-on, etc.) to offer tailored made experience E-commerce Booming Majority of shoppers tend to shop at 1 platform. Focus on major platforms (Facebook, Shopee, Tiki) with the largest traffic! Online expands share rapidly in a year for Personal Care and currently account for 3 out 10 dong respectively for real purchase of Cosmetics, and it’s even higher for Make-up. of Personal Care buyers still shop at only 1 platform % Value Share of E-commerce Personal Care %Value Growth vs YA Make Up +63% Female Skin Care +25% +55% Penetration % in Personal Care 32.4 25 8.1 5.2 2018 33 2020 2018 2020 2018 19 14.5 10.5 2020 Source: Worldpanel Division | Household panel | Urban 4 key cities | Personal Care excluding Gift 2020 29.7 19.3 12.2 2018 Online Social Commerce 16.5 8.2 E-com 9.5 2.3 2.7 2.8 Lazada Shopee 0.7 4.1 Tiki 1.7 0 Sendo 4 4.4 Others Growing Sustainability Concern 34 Did you know? However What stops Vietnamese consumers from living more green? A quarter of Vietnamese consumers say recycling is inconvenient. 79% Consumers frequently go on a grocery shopping trip without their bag/ basket to carry their purchase. Food safety, plastic waste and water pollution are the top 3 concerns among Vietnamese people. However, they still find it hard to change their habit of using plastic. 35 Source: Kantar Worldpanel | Who cares who does report 2020 • Barriers in knowledge. And a half say “It’s too confusing to know what can be recycled.” +80% • Their belief that environment is not that bad. People agree There is already a high awareness that recycling will reduce pollution and safe natural resources. Barriers Vietnam is the world’s 4th largest marine plastic polluter with 50 billion plastic bags used per year. = 10 plastic bags / week / person. Manufacturers are expected the most to take action in reducing environmental impact. • Barriers in distribution and price in reaching green products. 25 4 29 Manufactures 44 Government Consumers Retailers Some already did a good job. Unilever’s refill station Nestle Vietnam Vinamilk Eco-friendly packaging Did you know? #1 Only The number of consumers can recall brands that they are doing good deeds for the environment are still limited. Big gap in Vietnam – desire - action onus on manufacturers to make it easy for consumers. What’s next? #2 Stronger, authentic communication about the good deeds to drive awareness. #3 Sustainability is NO LONGER JUST A NICE THING TO DO and should be a critical part of any business strategy moving forward. 36 Source: Kantar Worldpanel | Who cares who does report 2020 Modern Trade Prosperity in Rural 37 Modern Trade is expanding significantly in Rural, especially Minimarket with spend/trip is almost as much as Urban % Value share % Value growth 2.3 2.9 3.5 15.8 14.9 13.5 76.3 75.7 75 All retailers 9 10 Traditional trade 8 9 Street Shops 8 9 Wet market 3 0 Specialty stores 2019 2020 Street Shops Wet Market Specialty Stores Direct Sales GT Others Modern Trade Hyper & Super 33 11 82 Minimarket Online 65 40 33 Modern trade 2018 17 2019 Vs. LY 2020 Vs. LY Modern Trade in Rural 38 Source: Worldpanel Division | Households Panel | Rural Vietnam | Total FMCG excluding Gift | Data updated to September 2020 % Penetration Frequency Spend/trip (VND) 37% 5.9 166k +4.7 pts (vs. MAT P9’18) Urban: 87.3% (Urban: 27 times/year) (2.2X Traditional Trade) +10% vs. year ago (Urban: 171k) *** Additionally, minimarkets are winning rural consumers with the aggressive expansion of Bach Hoa Xanh, opening up huge opportunity to further surge Minimarkets - % Penetration 3% 2018 7% 2019 2020 Shopper base are x6 within 2 years, acquiring more than 2 households. million new rural Rural shoppers spend the same amount (103k VNĐ) for each trip, compared to Urban citizens… and shop there every quarter, likewise in Hyper & Super. Bach Hoa Xanh is now the main retailer, which has already reached 12% of Rural households with the stronghold South. 39 Source: Worldpanel Division | Households Panel | Rural Vietnam | Total FMCG excluding Gift | Data updated to September 2020 North 0.6 Central 15.2 South 33.5 Interestingly, the channel appeals to all demo groups in Rural yet skews more to affluent families, thanks to its competitive advantages % shoppers in Minimarket by demographic 30 25 20 15 10 5 2019 0 2020 Low Income HH Mid-low Income HH Mid-high Income HH High Income HH Key Advantages Source: Worldpanel Division | Households Panel | Rural Vietnam | Total FMCG excluding Gift | Data updated to 40 September 2020 Product assortment Product assortment Similar to modernized street shops yet offering a wider/ more diverse range of products/ choices, high quality/ premium choices. Hybrid format between street shops & wet markets to offer branded fresh foods/ or with product origins. Summary Though Traditional Trade is still the essential channel of Rural consumers, the improvement of income as well as living standard leads to the prosperity of Modern Trade in Rural. This emerging channel is expanding the buyer base significantly and becoming more and more familiar with Rural shoppers, especially Minimarket that enjoys 3-digit growth. 41 Convenience and Hygiene are 2 most important factors that help Modern Trade win in Rural since these are top criterion of Rural consumers when choosing shopping store. Besides, wide range of product assortment and high product quality are crucial to attract more traffics while helpful staff helps in building up retention and repurchase rate. Key shoppers of Minimarket are Households with high income but the recruitment among lower one is also on good momentum, showing huge opportunity to diversify buyer profile. Bach Hoa Xanh is a key highlight for the flourishing of Minimarket in Rural, that’s been reaching more than 1/3 South Rural citizens. The Role of Gifting 42 Giving gifts on Tet Festival (aka Lunar New Year) has been a traditional custom in Vietnam’s ancient culture for years, expressing not only the gratitude towards someone but also the care to each other. As a result, consumer spend on gifting accounts for a significant proportion of total FMCG spend during Tet period. However, we witness the reduction of gifting occasions last Tet 2020, which could be explained by the changes in consumer lifestyles towards modernization. Looking to Tet 2021 preparation, gifting is still an important culture among Vietnamese consumers. Beside money, consumer packaged goods are their preferable options for gifting such as biscuits, soft drinks and beer. In addition to these most typical Tet products, the rise of gifting occasions with nutritional and convenient products has been observed during recent years, offering new choices for consumers and new chances for brands to tap into. 43 Although Gifting declines in the last Tet period, the role of gifting remains very important in Tet % Value growth of Gifting across years (Tet period vs YA) 50 40 30 Urban 4 Cities 20 10 Rural 0 -10 -20 Tet 2017 Tet 2018 Tet 2019 Tet 2020 % Value share in Tet basket – Tet 2020 (For Urban 4 Cities & Rural) 29% 71% Source: Worldpanel Division | Household Panel | Urban 44 Vietnam 4 key cities & Rural | FMCG Gifting Real Purchases Almost every household has plans to give gifts to others in the upcoming Tet 2021 % Plan to give gifts before Tet 2021 88% Urban 4 Cities 82% Rural -2pts vs Tet 2020 +10pts vs Tet 2020 45 Source: Worldpanel Division | Households Panel | Urban 4 key cities & Rural Vietnam | Tet 2021 Survey Top 5 Gifts at Tet 2021 1 - Money 2 - Biscuits/ Candy Jam 3 - Alcoholic drink 4 - Mixed basket gifts 5 - Clothing/ Shoes/ Jewelry Top 5 Gifts at Tet 2021 1 - Money 2 - Biscuits/ Candy Jam 3 - Soft drink 4 - Alcoholic drink 5 - Fresh food Top 5 most chosen categories for Tet gifting Top rising categories for Tet gifting Based on % Occasion Based on % Occasion change Biscuits & Cakes Snack & Nuts Beer Liquid Milk Carbonated Soft Drinks Sweetened Condensed Milk Instant Coffee Sauces Cooking Aids Source: Worldpanel Division | Households Panel | Urban 4 key cities & Rural 46 Vietnam | FMCG Gifts only | Tet 2020 The Shift to Value & Essentials 47 Vietnamese consumers experienced an abnormal year with many limitations, in social and financial matters. Schools were closed for months. Work was shifted to home. Similar to other countries, consumers in Vietnam did shift their spending to essentials, while cutting back on most discretionary categories, especially travel. Engagement in out-of-home activities is also lower even after restrictions had been lifted. On the contrary, FMCG and Food as essential products are occupying bigger shares in household expenditure. This led to positive performance of FMCG in-home market, which posted an 10% growth in value. This growth stems from higher volume consumption while average consumer price remains relatively unchanged. Additionally, although consumer choices toward products vary across categories, the shifting to lower-priced offers is universally observed in nearly 60% FMCG categories, from food to non-food sectors. This could be a consequence of the budget limitation due to cautious spending. Hence, manufacturers and retailers who focused on affordable offers and saving messages have bigger opportunities to stay relevant and ahead in competition. 48 Spending cut on transportation, entertainment, travelling and saving at the expenses of Food & CPG is common behavior of Vietnamese households in 2020. 49 URBAN 2018 2019 2020 Food + CPG 36.9 37.4 40.8 Household Transportation 5.5 4.9 4.7 Household Entertainment 2.7 2.8 2.4 Household Savings 11.3 11.3 10.2 Household Travel /Holiday 5.1 4.9 3 RURAL 2018 2019 2020 Food + CPG 31.1 32.6 33.7 Household Transportation 4.5 4.5 3.9 Household Entertainment 0.9 1.0 1.1 Household Savings 13.2 13.2 12.3 Household Travel /Holiday 1.6 1.6 0.8 FMCG as considered as essentials in 2020 showed a strong growth in both urban 4 key cities and rural, mainly driven by the higher volume consumption. Meanwhile, the price change is even lower than CPI. % YOY FMCG change Urban 4 Cities Value 10% 9% 10% 6% 6% 2% 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020 Volume 7% 4% 4% 6% 7% 0% 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020 Paid Price 2.4% 2.6% 2.9% 2018 2019 2020 Source: Worldpanel Division | Households Panel | Urban 4 Key Cities & Rural 50 Vietnam | Total FMCG excluding Gift | 1 year ending 3/01/2021 Rural *: To calculate FMCG price paid change, we calculate how much price contributes to the value change for each category, sum up these contributions and relate to value 2.5% 3.0% 2.7% 2018 2019 2020 YA**: To calculate FMCG volume change, we calculate how much volume contributes to the value change for each category, sum up these contributions and relate to value YA (this results in an average category change in volume) Switching to lower priced offers is a way to manage the spending budget on FMCG in this difficult time. Nearly 60% FMCG categories are suffering downtrading, including both Food and Non Food categories % Value growth 80% 60% 40% 20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 0% 2% -20% -40% -60% 51 Source: Worldpanel Division | Households Panel | Urban 4 Key Cities & Rural Vietnam | Total FMCG excluding Gift | 1 year ending 3/01/2021 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% % Price change The shift to value Saving offers/ messages are emphasized a lot by many brands to stay relevant to consumers +43% value Vinmart +33% value Vinmart+ 90 – 20% bigger Kokomi with same price 14% Urban households after 1 Reached year of launching (vs. 4.2% market norm) Surf liquid detergent +95% in value in Urban (vs. last year) 52 Outlook in 2021 and Beyond 53 Vietnam economy: Optimistic for 2021 According to Vietnam Institute of Economics, the impact of COVID-19 hit Vietnam economy much harder than that of the 1997 Asian financial crisis and the 20072008 global financial crisis. These two crises caused the lowest growth rate of 4.77% in 1999 and 5.40% in 2009, which are still higher than the 2020’s economic growth (2.91%). However, the effects of COVID-19 are likely temporary, and will not last as long as the two mentioned financial crises. In fact, there are many industries that being heavily affected by the health crisis but also many businesses benefited from it. This is very different from what happened amid the financial crisis when most industries were negatively affected. Vietnam economy currently shows a fast recovery, particularly in quarter 3 and 4 of 2020, promising a brighter outlook in 2021. Depending on the world’s economic situation and the country’s attractiveness for foreign direct investment, Vietnam’s 2021 economic growth is projected with three economic scenarios: Scenario 1 GDP growth at Scenario 2 GDP growth at Scenario 3 GDP growth at 3.48% 5.49% 6.9% (the lowest) 54 Source: GSO (the highest) • IMF predicts the Vietnam economy will • According to local predictions, GDP growth expand 7.588% in 2021, which is even higher is projected to recover at 6-6.9% in 2021 compared to the level of pre-COVID19. as the most optimistic scenario. (Asia Nikkei) (Bao Chinh Phu) Whatever the scenario, there remains both challenges and opportunities. Opportunity • The positive economic outlook will attract more foreign investment, increasing both capital and employment. •M &A activities to rebound and increase with Vietnam holding second place in the top 20 countries having the highest M&A index. • Opportunities for export as many global companies are flocking to Vietnam together with the effects of CPTPP, EVFTA and inprogress RCEP. • The rise of digital economy & the acceleration of digital transformation pushing the exceptional growth of digital media, eCommerce, cashless payment,… play a key role in economic development. Challenges • Border closures still have a significant impact • Increasing environmental issues as businesses and activities resume & unsustainable on trade, supply chains, consumer demand exploitation of natural resources, leading to and travel. health & well-being issues. • Consumer might be more cautious in •B usiness environment and skills of workforce spending due to uncertainties, inflation need to be improved in order to keep up with & financial concerns, given the increased the economic development pace. unemployment rate in key cities. Forecasting FMCG Growth in Vietnam for 2021 • The forecasting model includes 6 metrics that have different weights of the impact on FMCG sales. 1 - Inflation Rate 2 - Food Inflation 3 - Residential Mobility 4 - Consumer Spending 5 - GDP Growth Rate 6 - Consumer Confidence Index • Our belief that COVID outbreak contained, and with vaccination being globally distributed that things will not get worse, and that both consumer confidence and GDP growth will improve • For other metrics, we believe they will be the same as today or will make insignificant impacts on the results given the local context and circumstances. Urban 4 key cities Beverages Dairy Packaged Grocery Personal Care Home Care 100% 19% 28.9% 25.2% 17.9% 9% Sector Value Contribution 21.3% 10.3% 6.4% 7.9% 8.5% 6.4% 2.2% 2.7% 1.5% 2019 2020 2021 Rural 2019 2020 2021 9.8% 5.3% 11.4% 12.1% 10.1% 6.9% 4.9% 2019 2020 2021 FY Growth Rates 2019 2020 2021 2019 2020 2021 4.6% 4.4% 2019 2020 2021 In Rural, personal care potentially continues to drive growth, while Beverages recover In-home FMCG Beverages Dairy Packaged Grocery Personal Care Home Care 100% 24.1% 23.8% 30% 13.1% 9% Sector Value Contribution 14.6% 8.6% 10.2% 8.7% 7.3% 16.6% 14.8% 13.6% 12.6% 11.4% 5.6% 5.4% 2019 2020 2021 2019 2020 2021 12.2% 5.2% 11.1% 9.1% 4.3% 1.4% 2019 2020 2021 Residental Mobility (SQ = -3.6) Status Quo Food Inflation (SQ = 3%) Source: Worldpanel Forecasting model & Trading Economics | FMCG data excluding Gifting FY Growth Rates In-home FMCG Inflation Rate (SQ = 1.4%) 55 Growth of packaged foods is expected to cool, but still at 10%, while personal care is predicted to grow at double digits in Urban Status Quo Status Quo Consumer Spending (SQ = 4074091 VND Billion) Status Quo 2019 2020 2021 2019 2020 2021 2019 2020 2021 GDP Growth Rate (SQ = 6.4%) Slightly Increased Consumer Confident Index (SQ = 120.5) Slightly Increased Prospects for FMCG: a regional perspective Nelson Woo Regional Commerical Director Worldpanel Division Asia, Kantar With a population of more than 90 million, Vietnam remains as a prime market not only for continued local growth but also an avenue for regional FMCG players to tap into. We have equally seen how the Vietnamese consumers and shoppers are improving not only their quantity but quality of life over the past 10 years, a real testament of a very proud nation, thriving to become one of the leading markets not only in the Asia region but also Globally. Relatively a young consumer base, growing income per capita and increasing sophistication of use in both mobile and tech puts Vietnam high on the attractiveness index for investors, brands and manufacturers alike. In addition, Vietnam also has a great geographic advantage bordering many Asia countries i.e. China and also the emerging markets of Indo-China; giving it a massive advantage as a country to not only build on local consumption but a hub to extend its reach to other markets as well. The country is now the 6th most populous country in Asia (behind China, India, Indonesia, Japan and the Philippines); and could easily outpace to the 5th most populous market in the region. Coupled with the improvements on standard of living and a positive growth in both organized trade and E-commerce, it is set to certainly be a market where every brand and manufacturer will not want to miss. In 2020, Vietnam’s economic growth at 2.9% despite the very challenging year of COVID-19 is a testament of the countries that are resilient and strong to cope and weather the challenges in market. This has also given a strong competitive advantage to Vietnam compared to other ASEAN countries – allowing it to leapfrog itself and also giving a strong grounding and growth in the FMCG market. The challenges manufacturers will face is how they can further drive growth in a sustainable way amidst rising competition (both with local giants, regional players and global MNCs) and with the new evolving multichannel, omnichannel and trade landscape. 56 What’s Next for Health & Well-being? COVID-19 pandemic has put mental health and wellbeing of Vietnamese consumers under great pressure, which highlights the importance of health priority. In the past century or even before that, health is about taking medicine to treat an illness or taking recommended vaccines to prevent certain diseases. From a fundamental understanding of health in the past, consumers are broadening their knowledge with better accessibility of health information online, and higher adoption of tech to track their health and nutrition. Therefore, consumers are now shifting from reactive to proactive when actively managing their diet to prevent illness and stay healthy – incorporating with health boosters. 57 Source: GSO Specifically, COVID-19 – the health crisis of the decade, forces consumers to have behavioural changes in product choice. This could be brought forward post the pandemic as new habits, new lifestyles. “Pandemic” basket is fueled with three key groups of categories including necessary & convenient foods, hygiene items and nutritional products; reflecting consumer priority towards their essential and healthy needs during quarantine time. With healthier lifestyle, for instance, the increased spending on health & hygiene products will likely to continue as people seek for prevention from the possibility of another Covid-19 outbreak or the threat of any other viruses that might hit the world in the future. In that context, consumer demand on health and hygiene will continue to thrive. Consumers increasingly desire snack and beverages that can benefit their physical, mentality or emotional wellness. They look for products with clear functional benefits and brands with thorough communication on how they promote health and nutrition: - Safe, natural & proactive ingredients, nutrients - Immune-boosting products i.e. probiotics, vitamins, supplements - High quality products with health benefits - Plant-based diet - Premium options for eating & drinking & beauty i.e. organic, vegan - More indulgence & enjoyment that good for mental health i.e. treats - Pre-emptive solution for senior population Outlook for healthcare will be shaped by favourable trends and structural developments. Health will be about taking snacks and beverages that are personalised to suit one’s unique health needs, goals as well as knowledge level. Areas that are related to digital health, genomics and extended longevity should observe further upside potential over the longer term Tet Gifting Evolution From distant past to present day, the custom of giving gifts during Tet festival has become a typical culture, adopted by the majority of Vietnamese people. Giving gift is not only a way to express love and appreciation among family members, friends or colleagues, but this also represents meaningful wishes for blessings and luck. The latest survey reveals that almost every household (over 80%) intends to buy gifts for others in Tet 2021, in which family members are the key recipients. Gifting has played an important role in every Tet season, contributing a big proportion to total Tet spending, especially within FMCG industry, though it differs by sector and market. Within FMCG basket, biscuits, beer and soft drinks are the top choices of Vietnamese consumers for Tet gifting. These categories sales during Tet month usually double and even triple that of a normal month, largely contributed by gifting occasions. Yet, people have a lower intent to spend on these categories compared to Tet 2020, according to the survey, while organic or health-related categories such as nutrition drinks, snack & nuts are quickly capturing consumer preference. This trend is predicted to be more and more prevalent as health will be more prioritized after the health crisis. In addition, premiumization and customization are also the trends that will continue thriving in the next seasons, reflecting from product innovation to communication in order to meet the growing taste of Vietnamese consumers. Noticeably, we see that Tet-gifting custom is getting more simplified recently. Last Tet 2020, gifting experienced a significant decline in both value and occasions. It could be the result of consumers’ fast-changing lifestyles towards modernization, especially in urban areas. Interestingly, there is also a correlation between the family structure (the number of members) and the number of targets they want to present gifts: “The smaller household size, the less targets for gifting”. As such, this could lead to a continued deceleration of gifting in the coming years, given that Vietnam’s household size is shrinking over time with more younger families having one or two generations. Nevertheless, Tet-gifting culture will probably stay here for many more years, providing a great opportunity to leverage brand growth. 58 Quality Assurance Quality assurance has been an increasingly prominent concern amongst Vietnamese consumers, especially in food industry. There are several drivers of this trend. In the context of growing middle class in Vietnam, the willingness to pay for higher quality products is accelerating. In the last decades, Vietnamese government has been issuing more regulations on food safety that also increases consumer awareness about product quality. Moreover, with the development of social media and Internet, negative news and the followed media coverage can spread like wildfire. This is only one of the many reasons why manufacturers need to ensure that their production lines utilize the latest technologies and methods to proactively avoid any incidents. In the past, quality was assured mostly by brand names. Consumers were relying on their own experiences or on what were recommended by people around them. They bought the products from well-known brands without the intention or the accessibility to check more information about the products from various sources. Communication from manufacturers played the vital role in building consumer trust. Quality currently is defined in a more complex way other than just brand names. Consumers have the higher expectations when it comes to the production methods and quality of the food, but also for packaging and other features of the product. They are not afraid to walk away if these expectations are not met. Reliable origin and production process are increasingly important to consumers. Prior to making decisions, consumers are spending more time to search for in-depth information about products from different sources, either from people they know or social groups. In the next few years, consumers might be looking out for clearer visibility of when, where and how the products were sourced, produced and delivered to them. The technology development allows manufacturers to give the consumers the full transparency in producing process at all steps. 59 Source: GSO About Kantar Find Out More Kantar is the world’s leading evidence-based insights and consulting company. 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Key Contacts Fabrice Carrasco Peter Christou Nguyen Phuong Nga Antoine Louat de Bort Huynh Le Nguyen Thi Nhu Ngoc Managing Director of Kantar Worldpanel Vietnam & Philippines Asia Strategic Projects Director fabrice.carrasco@kantar.com Senior NBD Director phuongnga.nguyen@kantar.com Account Director le.huynh@kantar.com 60 Commercial Director peter.christou@kantar.com Account Director antoine.louat@kantar.com Marketing Manager nhungoc.nguyenthi@kantar.com Contributors Fabrice Carrasco Peter Christou Nguyen Phuong Nga Antoine Louat de Bort Nguyen Thi Nhu Ngoc Vo Thi Kim Nhu Tran Dang Phuong Vy Nguyen Ngoc Thuy Le Thi Ha Nhi Nguyen Van Vu Hoang Nhu Mai Nguyen Hoang Lan Nguyen Anh Tuan Nguyen Phan To Nhu Pham Thi Hong Nguyen Managing Director of Kantar Worldpanel Vietnam & Philippines Asia Strategic Projects Director Marketing Manager & Project Leader Associate Account Manager Account Executive 61 Commercial Director Senior Account Manager Marketing Executive Account Executive Senior NBD Director NBD Manager Account Executive Senior Commercial Admin Executive Account Director Associate Account Manager Account Executive www.kantar.com