ReneeLow/YJC/2011
Who was more to be blame for the origins and development of the Cold War in Europe up
till 1949: Stalin or Truman? (Nov 2010 GCE ‘A’ levels)
1. Introduction
 Truman more to be blamed largely.
 This comes from the Revisionist school of thought: briefly explain
 He adopted a series of aggressive foreign policies that provoked Soviet reaction, hence
cementing the outbreak of the Cold War.
 He possessed a hard-line stance, with an uncompromising attitude towards USSR.
 Fuelled fear and suspicions in Stalin towards US policies as seen through Get Tough and
Containment.
 So Truman’s actions caused the outbreak of the Cold War while Stalin was reacting largely
to Truman’s policies.
2. The character and personality of Truman influenced his policies and actions
 Inexperienced in foreign affairs as he was kept put of the before becoming president.
 Hard-line, inflexible, iron-fisted, uncompromising.
 Catapulted into position that he was not ready for.
 His sense of weakness increased by growing pressure that existed within USA by antiCommunist groups.
 So he tried to assert US authority by an openly hostile attitude towards USSR.
 He was exasperated by failure to settle key post-war issues with the USSR= ‘stop babying
the Soviets’.
 Tended to view the world as black and white.
 Tendency to view complicated issues in simple terms= inflexible in attitude towards Soviets.
3. Influence of Kennan’s Long telegram in reinforcing his biased perception of USSR
 Kennan’s uncomplicated analysis of Soviet motives fitted with Truman’s views= embraced it.
 The Long Telegram justified Truman’s hard-line approach.
 It was an analysis of Soviet foreign policy, emphasising the role of Communist ideology.
 Saw USSR as suspicious and aggressive so no compromise with USSR.
 Encouraged Truman to define USSR as enemy and prompted a clearer, tougher policy
towards USSR.
 The telegram was a firm basis behind the belief that only a hard-line approach towards
Stalin would work in containing Communism= safeguarding US interests so US was to drop
prospect of compromise to one of containment.
 Policies reinforced by Churchill’s speech.
 So Truman’s personality and attitude/prejudices towards USSR/Stalin saw to a hard-line
approach which saw to US embarking on aggressive policies to contain Communism.
 Fuelled suspicions/fears and retaliation from USSR/Stalin.
 Hence Truman was more responsible for he started the Cold War.
4 Truman’s Get Tough policies created conditions for the Cold War to develop as it
fuelled/created misunderstandings and suspicions from USSR/Stalin
 Truman’s failure to understand USSR’s security concerns.
 Had no comparison with suffering endured by USSR.
 Did not comprehend USSR’s demand for security.
 Interpreted every action as USSR’s desire to dominate Europe and spread world
Communism.
 Misinterpretation added to hostility that developed during the Cold War.
 USSR’s actions of tightening hold over Eastern Europe made US government suspicious of
real intentions.
1
ReneeLow/YJC/2011
 In reality: Stalin concerned over national security.
5. Get Tough policies led to emergence of the Cold War: US/Truman’s tendency to
ignore contrary evidence. (elab on below)
 Loan issues and dollar diplomacy
 Atomic diplomacy, Baruch Plan
 Disputes over Germany: Potsdam
 Diplomatic pressure in Iran, Trieste = show reality of the situation
 Economic aid: Greece= Tito-inspired
 Military action: Korea, Manchuria- reality of the situation: USSR tolerant of US troops
so near her borders.
 Truman’s actions built up Stalin’s paranoia, suspicions towards USA.
 All along, Stalin was tolerant of US policies.
6. Containment policies confirmed/cemented the start of the Cold War
 Truman doctrine: exaggeration and was an economically and politically aggressive
policy to undermine Soviet security.
 Elaborate on the motives of the Truman doctrine.
 Marshall aid: economic imperialism of USA
 The creation of the West German state: retaliation Berlin blockade
 NATO: the military division of Europe
 These were all part of the Containment policies to contain and challenge USSR in
Europe that triggered a response from Stalin.
 What followed was an action/reaction cycle of reactions from USSR/Stalin that
cemented the outbreak of the Cold War.
Stalin/Soviet reaction
 In Stalin’s eyes, USA was bent on weakening her: denying of loans and reparations.
 USA bent on destroying Communism: Marshall aid in trying to draw Eastern Europe
away and the rehabilitation of West Germany.
Hence Stalin embarked on defensive measures such as:
 Sovietisation of Eastern Europe: solidified grip: examples of Czechoslovakia,
Romania (use of Red army)
 Comecon and Molotov Plan to economically counter Marshall aid
 The Berlin blockade to prevent the creation of the West German state
 So Stalin’s reactions confirmed and reaffirmed to USA/Truman that USSR
was expansionistic and aggressive.
 It was a dangerous cycle of action and reaction that started from
US/Truman’s adoption of the Containment policies.
7. Role of Stalin: paranoid, suspicious and provocative
Insecurities of Stalin
 Deeply distrustful of the West, concerned with the survival of USSR.
 Determined to safeguard USSR against foreign attacks.
 Eastern Europe was to act as a buffer so it was essential to install pro-Soviet
governments: expansion was along periphery.
Failure to implement agreements
 Yalta: elections not held in Poland
 Germany (Potsdam): blocked economic unity, reparation, policy in eastern German
sector provocative (stripping east Germany of her resources)
2
ReneeLow/YJC/2011
Sovietisation of Eastern Europe
 Strong arm tactics in Eastern Europe: elaborate with examples
 Poland, Romania, Bulgaria and Czechoslovakia
Policy of probing along the periphery: provocative and open to misunderstanding
 Moved troops in Korea and Manchuria, support for CCP.
 Exploited wartime agreements in Iran
8. Roles of other personalities
a). Roosevelt: initial stages: fuelled suspicions not the main cause of the outbreak
 Ambiguous policies created mistrust and misunderstanding
 Went against earlier agreements and upset Stalin.
 Earlier agreements such as opening of second front during WWII, Teheran and Moscow
agreements.
 At Yalta: issue over Poland
 Angered Stalin and arose suspicion that USA was trying to weaken and make her
vulnerable.
 Made USSR/Stalin more antagonistic towards USA.
 US policy confused Stalin; sent mixed signals.
b). Kennan, Clifford-Elsey and Winston Churchill
Long telegram
 Reinforced Truman’s existing biasness.
 Aggressive analysis of USSR’s foreign policies and influenced Truman to carry out Get
Tough then subsequently Containment policies.
Clifford-Elsey
 A reinforcement of the Long Telegram.
Churchill
 Confirmed Truman’s suspicions and encouraged Truman to take an aggressive stance
and actions towards USSR.
 Subsequently carried out Get Tough policies.
Justification:
 These personalities were not the main reason why the Cold War broke out as they had
laid the basis, reinforced an existing, already biased mindset of Truman so their role was
just a confirmation of Truman’s beliefs.
 Served to encourage him but it was Truman who took concrete actions that led to the
fruition of the Cold War.
Both sides to be blamed equally (small extent)
 Ideology as a basis that influenced Truman, Stalin and Roosevelt
3
ReneeLow/YJC/2011
“It was Stalin’s paranoia and preoccupation with security that caused the outbreak of the
Cold War.” How far do you agree with this statement from the period 1945 to 1949?
2. Introduction
Small extent: Stalin
 Stalin to be blamed to a lesser degree.
 The question is derived from the traditional school of thought.
 According to this school, Stalin was viewed to be expansionistic due to his paranoia and suspicions
of the West.
 While it is true that he was occupied with security concerns, these concerns were often overlooked
by the insensitive American leadership hence playing up his existing fears.
Large extent: Truman
 Truman more to be blamed largely.
 This comes from the Revisionist school of thought: briefly explain
 He adopted a series of aggressive foreign policies that provoked Soviet reaction, hence cementing
the outbreak of the Cold War.
 He possessed a hard-line stance, with an uncompromising attitude towards USSR.
 Fuelled fear and suspicions in Stalin towards US policies as seen through Get Tough and
Containment.
 So Truman’s actions caused the outbreak of the Cold War while Stalin was reacting largely
to Truman’s policies.
Other leaders
 Other Western leaders like Roosevelt, Churchill and Kennan played a role as well but to a lesser
degree.
 Churchill, Kennan and Clifford-Elsey influencing and reinforced Truman’s existing biasness while
Roosevelt encouraged early tensions due to his ambiguous actions.
2. Role of Stalin: paranoid, suspicious, preoccupied with security and provocative
a) Stalin’s personality
 Stalin was suspicious of others by nature and he also possessed an authoritarian, brutal and
xenophobic style of leadership which made the Cold War more likely.
 He was wary of the capitalistic West and his misgivings were sharpened by Truman’s ‘unfriendly’
actions such as Get Tough and Containment.
 He had a deep-seated need to be respected and feared furthermore, which made him naturally
averse to conciliation and compromise.
b) Insecurities of Stalin: namely surrounding security and economic reconstruction
 Deeply distrustful of the West, concerned with the survival of USSR.
 Determined to safeguard USSR against foreign attacks having been invaded twice: elaborate on
Stalin’s post-war aims
 Eastern Europe was to act as a buffer so it was essential to install pro-Soviet governments:
expansion was along periphery.
c) Failure to implement agreements: overriding concern with security
 Yalta: elections not held in Poland
 Germany (Potsdam): blocked economic unity, reparation, policy in eastern German sector
provocative (stripping east Germany of her resources)
 Argument: these actions of Stalin were provocative and did show his overriding concern with
security as actions in Poland, Germany, Bulgaria and Romania were evidences of his desire to
protect USSR from foreign threats and to secure buffers.
 Actions in Germany (reparations) also showed desire for economic reconstruction having been
devastated in World War II.
4
ReneeLow/YJC/2011
 Evaluation: Soviet influence in Poland, Romania and Bulgaria had been pre-agreed on at earlier
conferences (Tehran and Moscow), hence Stalin was frustrated and puzzled at Roosevelt and
Truman’s revisiting of these issues.
 He was acting based on what the West had implicitly agreed on or acknowledged as his spheres
of influence.
 So while his actions did show his concern with security, it can be argued that he was largely
acting on tacit approval given to him by the West prior.
d) Sovietisation of Eastern Europe: overriding concern with security
 Salami tactics essentially showcased his genuine desire to protect USSR from any future
Western attacks by creating a defensive buffer zone in Eastern Europe.
 However, the West his security concerns were often not taken into regard by the West who had a
tendency to ignore contrary evidence and viewed them as ‘hostile’ acts.
 In the early stages from 1945 to 1946, Stalin did act with moderation and accommodation as
seen in Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary and Czechoslovakia.
 For the case of Poland, it was true that Stalin held on tightly to the country due to its overriding
strategic importance. Even so for Poland, while his actions were not blameless, he was acting as
what he thought was territory conceded to him by the allies.
 It was only after the announcement of the Marshall Plan in 1947 that Stalin reacted
aggressively with a series of counter measures such as Molotov Plan, Comecon and
Cominform to defend himself from what he perceived as the Western onslaught.
 Evidence of aggression seen in Czechoslovakia in 1947.
 Hence the aggressive salami tactics that Stalin had been accused of adopting were largely
a reaction to Truman’s containment policies
e) Policy of probing along the periphery: provocative and open to misunderstanding
 Besides being paranoid about security, one has to admit to a small extent, Stalin was also
provocative and not all his actions were security related, but he was opportunistic as well.
 Moved troops in Korea and Manchuria, support for CCP.
 Exploited wartime agreements in Iran by retaining Soviet presence in Iran after the war to secure
access to oil supplies.
 He also tried to extend the USSR’s influence into southern Europe by establishing Soviet control
over the Dardenelles which reinforced the image of an aggressive and expansionist Communist
dictator.
Evaluation
 For the case of Korea and Manchuria, he did acknowledge the leadership of the KMT and did not
oppose to US forces in both areas despite its proximity to USSR.
 He withdrew eventually from Iran after US protests.
 He probed along his peripheries but did not go beyond it, hence it can be argued that he was
provocative and some of his actions were more opportunistic than for genuine security purposes
but he stayed within his boundaries and did not go beyond.
3. The character and personality of Truman influenced his policies and actions
 Inexperienced in foreign affairs as he was kept put of the before becoming president.
 Hard-line, inflexible, iron-fisted, uncompromising.
 He was staunchly anti-Communist.
 Catapulted into position that he was not ready for.
 He was intensely suspicious of the Soviet regime and preferred to simplify complex international
issues. Tended to view the world as black and white.
 Tendency to view complicated issues in simple terms= inflexible in attitude towards Soviets.
5
ReneeLow/YJC/2011
 His sense of weakness increased by growing pressure that existed within USA by antiCommunist groups.
 So he tried to assert US authority by an openly hostile attitude towards USSR.
 So his inexperience together with an inferiority complex having taken over Roosevelt, made him
keen to establish a strong international reputation as president.
Abrasive, hostile, impatient and high-handed (Example of Potsdam)
 He was exasperated by failure to settle key post-war issues with the USSR= ‘stop babying the
Soviets’.
 His ‘get tough’ policies were driven partly by his personal characteristics and beliefs and his lack
of international experience.
 Early examples of his abrasive attitude could be seen in Potsdam by his criticism of Stalin over
the Poland issue, his lack of regard for Soviet security and economic concerns.
 His high-handed attitude was seen when knowledge of the atomic bomb’s successful detonation
was made known at Potsdam which intensified his hostile, complacent tone towards USSR.
 His leadership was a significant factor in the development of the Cold War because his
uncompromising stance undoubtedly increased Soviet fears and made Stalin less likely to
cooperate.
 Once he became president, he concluded that USSR was expansionistic and had to be
contained by USA.
 To combat the spread of communism, Truman adopted a more strident (harsh) policy
towards the USSR and exaggerated the Soviet threat on several occasions.
4. Influence of Kennan’s Long telegram and other opinions in reinforcing his biased
perception of USSR
 Kennan’s uncomplicated analysis of Soviet motives fitted with Truman’s views= embraced it.
 The Long Telegram justified Truman’s hard-line approach.
 It was an analysis of Soviet foreign policy, emphasising the role of Communist ideology.
 Saw USSR as suspicious and aggressive so no compromise with USSR.
 Encouraged Truman to define USSR as enemy and prompted a clearer, tougher policy
towards USSR.
 The telegram was a firm basis behind the belief that only a hard-line approach towards Stalin
would work in containing Communism= safeguarding US interests so US was to drop prospect of
compromise to one of containment.
 Policies reinforced by Churchill’s speech and Clifford-Elsey report.
 So Truman’s personality and attitude/prejudices towards USSR/Stalin saw to a hard-line
approach which saw to US embarking on aggressive policies to contain communism.
 Fuelled suspicions/fears and retaliation from USSR/Stalin.
 Hence Truman was more responsible for he started the Cold War with his
uncompromising policies.
5. Truman’s ‘Get Tough’ policies created conditions for the Cold War to develop as it
fuelled/created misunderstandings and suspicions from Stalin
 Truman’s failure to understand USSR’s security concerns.
 Had no comparison with suffering endured by USSR.
 Did not comprehend USSR’s demand for security.
 Interpreted every action as USSR’s desire to dominate Europe and spread world Communism.
 Misinterpretation added to hostility that developed during the Cold War.
 USSR’s actions of tightening hold over Eastern Europe made US government suspicious of real
intentions.
 In reality: Stalin concerned over national security.
6
ReneeLow/YJC/2011
6. Get Tough policies led to emergence of the Cold War: US/Truman’s tendency to
ignore contrary evidence and aggressive pursuit of pax Americana. (elab on
examples below)
 Loan issues, termination of lend-lease and dollar diplomacy
 Atomic diplomacy, Baruch Plan: desire to push for pax Americana
 Diplomatic pressure in Iran, Trieste = show reality of the situation: USSR withdrew
amidst delay.
 Economic aid: Greece= Tito-inspired (Stalin did encourage Tito to show restraint)
 Military action: Korea, Manchuria- reality of the situation: USSR tolerant of US troops
so near her borders.
 Truman’s actions built up Stalin’s paranoia, suspicions towards USA.
 All along, Stalin was tolerant of US policies, did not react drastically.
7. Containment policies confirmed/cemented the start of the Cold War
 Truman doctrine: exaggeration and was an economically and politically aggressive
policy to undermine Soviet security.
 Elaborate on the motives of the Truman doctrine. Stress the exaggeration by Truman
to Congress in order to secure funding.
 Aid to Greece and Turkey overreaction: actions led by Tito not Stalin
 Marshall aid: economic imperialism of USA
 The creation of the West German state: retaliation Berlin blockade (the desire to
create the West German state also revealed Truman’s lack of sensitivity to Soviet
security concerns and fears hence that explained Stalin’s desperate but flawed
attempt to prevent the formation of the state through the Berlin blockade.
 NATO: the military division of Europe
 These were all part of the Containment policies to contain and challenge USSR
in Europe that triggered a response from Stalin.
 What followed was an action/reaction cycle of reactions from USSR/Stalin that
cemented the outbreak of the Cold War.
Stalin/Soviet reaction
 In Stalin’s eyes, USA was bent on weakening her: denying of loans and reparations.
 USA bent on destroying Communism: Marshall aid in trying to draw Eastern Europe
away and the rehabilitation of West Germany.
Hence Stalin embarked on defensive measures such as:
 Sovietisation of Eastern Europe: solidified grip: examples of Czechoslovakia,
Romania (use of Red army)
 Comecon and Molotov Plan to economically counter Marshall aid
 The Berlin blockade to prevent the creation of the West German state
 So Stalin’s reactions confirmed and reaffirmed to USA/Truman that USSR
was expansionistic and aggressive.
 It was a dangerous cycle of action and reaction that started from
US/Truman’s adoption of the Containment policies.
8. Roles of other personalities
a). Roosevelt: initial stages: fuelled suspicions not the main cause of the outbreak
 Ambiguous policies created mistrust and misunderstanding
 Went against earlier agreements and upset Stalin.
 Earlier agreements such as opening of second front during WWII, Teheran and Moscow
agreements.
 At Yalta: issue over Poland
7
ReneeLow/YJC/2011
 Angered Stalin and arose suspicion that USA was trying to weaken and make her
vulnerable.
 Made USSR/Stalin more antagonistic towards USA.
 US policy confused Stalin; sent mixed signals.
*b). Kennan, Clifford-Elsey and Winston Churchill (these should be merged with
argument on Truman in point 4, no need for separate paragraph)
Kennan
 Reinforced Truman’s existing biasness.
 Aggressive analysis of USSR’s foreign policies and influenced Truman to carry out Get
Tough then subsequently Containment policies.
Clifford-Elsey
 A reinforcement of the Long Telegram.
Churchill
 Confirmed Truman’s suspicions and encouraged Truman to take an aggressive stance
and actions towards USSR.
 Subsequently carried out Get Tough policies.
Justification:
 These personalities were not the main reason why the Cold War broke out as they had
laid the basis, reinforced an existing, already biased mindset of Truman so their role was
just a confirmation of Truman’s beliefs.
 Served to encourage him but it was Truman who took concrete actions that led to
the fruition of the Cold War.
9. Both sides to be blamed equally (small extent) (Post-revisionist view)
 Ideology as a basis that influenced Truman and Stalin.
 US-Soviet relations deteriorated due to interaction of various factors which led to
misperception and misjudgement on both sides.
 Superpowers competing interests created a vicious circle of action and reaction.
 USSR’s desire for security and suspicion of the West exaggerated Western fears about
Soviet expansionism.
 Fuelled by Stalin’s aggressive behavior: was more an indication of weakness than strength.
 Truman’s hardline policies supported Stalin’s overblown claims that the West posed as a
direct military threat.
Truman’s role
 Did not share the same history of insecurity as USSR.
 Did not appreciate her sense of insecurity
 Add on biased perception of Sovietisation
 Interpreted as ideologically driven expansion.
 Assumed that Soviet foreign policy driven by ideology and not national security.
 Ignored evidences that suggested that Soviet goals were limited and defensive, saw
USSR as monolithic Communist power.
 Exaggerated threat of USSR.
Stalin’s role
 Stalin assumed he had the West’s unspoken approval for a defensive European buffer
zone at the Tehran and Moscow conferences.
 Concluded that USA shifted position unfairly when it voiced concerns over the future of
postwar Europe at Yalta and Potsdam.
8
ReneeLow/YJC/2011
 Feared that USA would take advantage of its military superiority and launch an attack
against USSR.
 US reluctance to share atomic information increased USSR’s vulnerability and fears.
 In addition, we have a paranoid, easily suspicious Stalin whose judgement may
have been impaired to assess situations accurately.
10. Conclusion
9