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~ AUSTRALIA ~
STILL DYING FROM THIRST AND
INFERNOS – 2020
CAPT Graham Bates – Intelligence Analyst
Image courtesy of The Huffington Post – Australian Edition
Australia’s Black Summer of 2019 – 2020 ~ bushfires killed 33 people, with indirect
deaths of “at least 450 people from smoke inhalation.” Included in the 33 person death
toll, were lost 6 Australian firefighters, plus 3 American firefighters when their C-130
Hercules aircraft crashed during water-bombing operations on 23 January 2020.
In 2007, a veteran soldier and firefighter published a new paradigm in bushfire combat.
This comprehensive, combined-arms operational plan has continually been ignored by
Australian civilian, emergency services, military, and political leaders, to this day.
These analyses will empower the Royal Commission to end these irresponsible,
continuing, and needless cycles of drought & bushfire carnage.
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NOTES
These submissions are not supported, authorised, accepted or defined as policy by the
Australian Army nor the Australian Department of Defence.
This work is dedicated to those Australians and visitors who perished, were injured, or
continue suffering from the never-ending drought and bushfire carnage.
Our heartfelt appreciation extends to every firefighter and people involved in firefighting
operations, whether on the fire front or those within the logistics/supply chain who
provide unstinting support during dangerous firefighting operations. Without such
support, these catastrophic disasters would be much worse.
The operational principles below, are driving my submission – this is reflected in the 6F
writing style which the Royal Commission may not be familiar with – analysis must be
factual, firm, fair, forthright, friendly & fearless.
analyse ~ adapt ~ evolve
OPERATIONAL PRINCIPLES
“I don't care a damn for your loyal service when you think I am right;
when I really want [your loyal service] most is when you think I am
wrong.”
GEN Sir John Monash
“If everyone is thinking alike, then somebody is not thinking.”
GEN George Patton
“’Paying it forward’….. is in many ways a succinct expression of the
major obligation of our existence….
In this country [Australia], we have opportunities not widely available,
we have an abundance of brilliant people with great energy and
inventiveness, we are comparatively rich and thus can do what others
might only dream of.”
GEN Sir Peter Cosgrove
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CONTENTS
Notes ....................................................................................................................................................... 2
Operational Principles .............................................................................................................................. 2
How did it ever come to this?.................................................................................................................... 4
The Chain of Evidence 1 .......................................................................................................................... 4
This is not a witch hunt ~ without prejudice ~ .............................................Error! Bookmark not defined.
The 2009 Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission ........................................Error! Bookmark not defined.
Chain of Evidence 2 ....................................................................................Error! Bookmark not defined.
Our Ops Plan ~ Not just about the “Bloody Tanks!” ................................................................................ 7
Fuel Reduction within the Urban rural interface [URI] ............................................................................. 8
The Clever Country ~ Dying of Thirst ~ 2007 .............................................Error! Bookmark not defined.
World War I ~ War-fighting Imperative ~ GEN Monash – 1918 ............................................................ 11
World War II ~ Combat Imperative ~ MAJGEN Hobart – 1943|44 ...................................................... 12
Fire-fighting Imperative ~ adapted from GEN Monash - 2007 ................................................................ 14
Fire-fighting variants Of military vehicles - FireKing ............................................................................... 15
Fire-fighting variants Of military vehicles - FireKing ............................................................................... 16
Fire fighting variants of military vehicles - Marder .................................................................................. 17
Fire fighting variants of military vehicles – Loschpanzer ......................................................................... 18
Time for change = Today ....................................................................................................................... 19
Examples of bushfire destruction ............................................................................................................ 22
Threat Analysis ~ Human Toll ............................................................................................................... 23
Threat Analysis – Land, fauna and flora damage .................................................................................... 24
Some solutions ~ History Rhymes .......................................................................................................... 26
Radiant modelling for bushfires .............................................................................................................. 27
Bushfires~ 110 years of analysis ............................................................................................................. 28
Bushfires~ 110 years of analysis ............................................................................................................. 29
Fuel Loads and fire intensity .................................................................................................................. 30
Funding the defence from Drought and Wildfires ................................................................................... 31
Background ............................................................................................................................................ 31
Alternative Funding Options .................................................................................................................. 32
Royal Australian Engineers + Peter andrews OAM ................................................................................ 34
Royal Australian Engineers + The Mulloon Institute .............................................................................. 35
Published works ..................................................................................................................................... 36
Conclusion ............................................................................................................................................. 38
Ramifications of Inaction ....................................................................................................................... 39
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HOW DID IT EVER COME TO THIS?
The Black Summer bushfires of 2020 are the result of years of inaction, despite detailed
analyses from Parliamentary Investigations & Royal Commissions since 1939.
This insanity must stop.
This insanity must stop now!
Insanity is defined as… “doing the same thing over, and over again
and expecting a different result.”
THE CHAIN OF EVIDENCE 1
CAPT Graham Bates [health scientist – medical imaging + soldier] and Daryl Rigby
[Registered Nurse + veteran firefighter] developed a firefighting plan in 2006-2007 during
the Millennium Drought 2001-2009.
Our start point was the 1983 Ash Wednesday bushfires, at that time Australia’s worst
bushfire disaster. We noted a distinct pattern linking these events – drought.
Drought – a clear indicator for catastrophic
bushfires – images courtesy BoM
Our plans include unique drought mitigation processes. Successful bushfire management
is inextricably linked to drought solutions.
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My first publication was entitled, The Clever Country – Dying of Thirst.
This provided some historical background to our continuing cycles of droughts and
bushfires ever since Dorothea Mackellar penned “My Country” in 1904.
The second publication in the series, Recycling – Hot Topic or just Hot Air, details how
recycling the heat by-products from heavy industry and power stations, is used to desalt
brackish or salt water. This process is called cogeneration or CHP.
The third publication, co-authored with Daryl Rigby, was entitled, New Recruits for our
Ashes Team, a direct reference to the Ash Wednesday Bushfires. This work builds upon
successful war-fighting strategies developed by GEN Sir John Monash, MAJGEN JFC
Fuller, MAJGEN Sir Percy Hobart et al, by adapting these to fire-fighting strategies.
We have also included successful drought mitigation strategies by Mr Andrew Peters,
OAM and the late Mr Tony Coote AM, in Natural Sequence Farming.
Cross referencing 2020 Letters Patent with our ‘combined arms’ operational plan
for a new firefighting paradigm which includes ADF deployment for fuel reduction
Note: Submissions will be processed/filtered through staff assisting the Royal
Commission and this will limit submissions being directly reviewed by the
commissioners.
It is imperative that these submissions are reviewed by Air Chief Marshal Mark Binskin,
due to his familiarity with ADF intelligence, operations, capacity, and capabilities.
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As per Prime Minister, Scott Morrison’s media release, review is also expected by the
Hon Dr Annabelle Bennett AC SC, former Federal Court Judge, and Professor Andrew
Macintosh, a specialist in climate risk and impact management, given their relevant
expertise in non-related ADF processes.
This enables validation of the attached reports, defined in the Terms of
Reference/Letters Patent, as per the graphic on page 5.
The Intelligence Cycle is the foundation of all ADF analytical processes.
The Intelligence Cycle
– image courtesy of Mr Neale McIver Emergency Services Project Manager
The red box relates to the commander’s intent, the starting point, as per ADF SOPs.
Q: What happens when there is no direct ADF commander in your area of operations?
A: “Initiative – I take action to continuously improve myself, my team and Army, not
only on the battlefield but in all areas, all the time.”
Comment: We took action “in all areas” in this case – drought and the fire-ground, “all
the time,” continuing from 2005 to this day in 2020.
“As an Army in Motion, we must continuously adapt as our operating environment
becomes more volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous.”
Comment: “More volatile uncertain, complex and ambiguous operating environments,”
includes taking proactive action in stopping drought and bushfires, stop filling our
hospitals with critically injured patients; stop filling the air with toxic pollution; stop
mass casualties to our unique fauna and flora.
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OUR OPS PLAN ~ NOT JUST ABOUT THE “BLOODY TANKS!”
There is a single-minded focus that our analysis and ops plan is only about Armoured
Strike Teams [ASTs]. This proves that commentators have not read the entire plan.
As per this 2009 report in The New Matilda, veteran bushfire scientist David Packham
warned us about ignoring 30 – 40 years of bushfire fuel build-up;
At least one meteorologist predicted it: bushfire expert David
Packham — who told the ABC on Thursday that the expected
conditions on Saturday would be "pretty much equal to the situation
that occurred in Canberra" — apparently wrote an email to the CFA
predicting the carnage. "I doubt if the state has ever before faced such
extreme conditions with fuel levels higher than ever, the prospects for
Saturday are horrible," he wrote.
With chilling prescience, he went on to comment that "the high-risk
areas because of the terrible fuel situation are the Yarra catchment, the
Otways and the remainder of the Strzeleckis".
Packham believes the fuel loads that have built up in the past 30 to
40 years are unprecedented and it was this that contributed to the
severity of Saturday’s infernos. "The state has never been as
dangerous as it is now and this has been quite obvious for some time",
he told the Australian Science Media Centre on Monday.
The report continues with a prescient reference to the Medical Journal of Australia that;
The unprecedented influx of burns casualties to Melbourne’s hospitals
shows up another aspect of Australia’s disaster preparedness. As a
recent paper in the Medical Journal of Australia pointed out, the
emergency departments of Australia’s public hospitals are in many
cases already operating at their limit.
They lack the surge capacity to cope with natural disasters or
terrorist attacks. It’s not just doctors, nurses and ambulances;
specialised equipment such as X-ray machines and beds in intensive
care units provide a bottleneck preventing disaster victims
from being treated.
The Surge Capacity for People in Emergencies (SCOPE) study in Australasian hospitals
Matthias Traub, David A Bradt and Anthony P Joseph
Med J Aust 2007; 186 (8): 394-398. || doi: 10.5694/j.1326-5377.2007.tb00971.x
Published online: 16 April 2007
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FUEL REDUCTION WITHIN THE URBAN RURAL INTERFACE [URI]
The danger of a URI that is too small or non-existent
~ 2013 Tasmanian bushfire disaster – image TFS
The Tasmanian Fire Service [TFS] refers to the sentinel importance of The Urban Rural – Interface [URI]. It is defined as the line, area, or zone where structures and other
human development adjoin or overlap with undeveloped bushland.
This is where the degree of risk to life and property is most pronounced, and historically
where the greatest losses have occurred.
The construction of fuel breaks in the urban-rural interface is a
common risk management strategy used by both land managers and
emergency management authorities.
When appropriately designed, fuel breaks can provide an effective
means to access the bushfire hazard for response and preparedness
activities, as well as providing a level of protection to life and property.
The TFS guidelines also highlight that;
“fuel break specifications calculated by the design tool will not guarantee life or property
protection in all bushfire scenarios, and therefore cannot be relied on as the only means
for managing bushfire risk.”
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This road provides a very narrow separation within the Urban Rural Interface – URI.
About 80% of people killed by bushfires over the past 110 years died within 30 metres of
a forest – refer to page 42.
The dimensions of the URI will be necessarily be determined by the forest fuel loads and
other secondary factors. For example: Forest fuel loads of between 20 – 30 tonnes per
hectare, may require a URI extension of 500 metres or more. Other inputs such as type
of fuel load – pine or eucalyptus forest – and forest floor leaf litter are also vital.
Weather, historical rainfall data, humidity and maximum wind conditions during the
bushfire season are some of the many other variables to consider.
The TFS classifies this URI as a “classic [type 1] interface.” The bushfire hazard lies
along the back-fence.
There is a real danger of home losses with moderate – to high fuel loads [bushfire
hazard] in residential areas like this.
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This is the Land Management Zone [LMZ] within the URI.
The Tasmanian Fire Service has provided this excellent 2016 reference entitled, Fuel
Break Guidelines. Full documentation from pages 4 – 10 covers this topic.
The fuel break zone within the Urban Rural Interface – URI
– image courtesy of the TFS
The dimensions of the fuel break zone should correlate with the forest fuel loads.
Higher fuel loads will require larger zones – thus enabling firefighters to safely
manoeuvre and operate during back-burning and bushfire ops.
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WORLD WAR I ~ WAR-FIGHTING IMPERATIVE ~ GEN MONASH – 1918
Following the costly failure of human-wave assaults at the 1916 Battle of the Somme 60,000 casualties, both dead and injured in a single day – Monash derived his own warfighting imperative based upon his engineering skills;
“…..the true role of infantry was not to expend itself upon heroic
physical effort, not to wither away under merciless machine‐
gun fire, not to impale itself on hostile bayonets,
…..but on the contrary,…..
…to advance under the maximum possible protection of the maximum
possible array of mechanical resources, in the form of guns,
machineguns, tanks, mortars and aeroplanes;
to advance with as little impediment as possible;
to be relieved as far as possible of the obligation
to fight their way forward.”
3 SQN RE8 aircraft - Battle of Amiens 1918
A British Mark V tank (B56, 9003) of the 2nd Battalion,
Royal Tank Corps - Battle of Amiens 1918
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WORLD WAR II ~ COMBAT IMPERATIVE ~ MAJG EN HOBART – 1943|44
MAJGEN Hobart graduated as an engineer officer and transferred to the Royal Tank
Corps in the early 1920s. He was responsible for the training and doctrine development
of armoured war-fighting tactics with the 1st Tank Brigade in 1934.
Tragically, senior commanders in the British Army, failed to appreciate his brilliance in
developing armoured units and doctrine, banishing him to the Middle East after the 1938
Munich Crisis. Hobart began training the later famous 7th Armoured Division [the
Desert Rats] at a furious pace, as he was concerned that war was coming.
Hobart was sacked in December 1939 – three months after World War II began – by the
Chief of the Imperial General Staff.
After reading a front page newspaper report by CAPT B Liddell-Hart, entitled “We
Have Wasted Brains”, Churchill directed the Imperial General staff to reinstate Hobart.
Finally in 1943, Hobart was tasked with developing and training the 79th Armoured
[Experimental] Division in preparation for the invasion of Europe. This division was the
largest armoured division in World War II, with 1,900 AFVs [tanks].
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The Sherman Crab with flail in operation creates a
safe trail through minefields – the thrashing flails
were remarkably effective in saving lives.
- image courtesy of WW 2 HQ
This Churchill Crocodile AVRE flame-throwing
tank with an armoured trailer carrying 1,800 litres
of fuel, proved highly effective at clearing
bunkers, trenches and other fortifications.
- image courtesy of War History Online
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FIRE-FIGHTING IMPERATIVE ~ ADAPTED FROM GEN MONASH - 2007
We have adapted Monash’s 1918 war-fighting imperative;
“…..the true role of firefighters and emergency services
is not to expend themselves upon heroic
physical effort, not to wither away under
merciless bushfire and ember attacks,
…..but on the contrary,…..
…to prevail with maximum protection utilising state-of-the art
firefighting trucks, tankers, armoured vehicles and
water-bombing aircraft;
by adopting a new paradigm in bushfire/wildfire combat;
to save lives, livelihoods, businesses; protect our fauna and flora
from firestorm carnage”
G Bates and D Rigby - 2007
Thales Fire King – 1 of 16 used by the South
Australian Forestry Commission - 2007
Airmatic Marder APC – Manufactured in
Europe – variant of military vehicle
The Jumbo Track Multi-Fire-Rescue vehicle – 15,000 litres payload.
Video above -- Greek 2009 bushfires
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FIRE-FIGHTING VARIANTS OF MILITARY VEHICLES - FIREKING
Successful military vehicles have also been re-designed as excellent fire-fighting units.
Australian built Bushmaster PMV – well regarded for ADF combat operations
- image courtesy of Army Recognition Online Journal
-
Image
Rejected by ADF, VIC CFA and NSW RFS HQ
commanders. Bushmaster variant ~ FireKing ~ during test
and evaluation by authors in 2007 at Mt Gambier SA.
Note robust external sprinkler system.
Co-author Daryl Rigby is on the left.
– image by Graham Bates
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FIRE-FIGHTING VARIANTS OF MILITARY VEHICLES - FIREKING
Thales FireKing enduring the CSIRO Burnover test ~ total heat flux exceeded 120
kw/m2 for a period greater than 33 seconds, replicating a Fire Danger Index (FDI) of 50
and a fuel loading of 15 tonnes per hectare.
Early version of FireKing on CSIRO testbed – vehicle was safely driven away after
test. The internal cabin temperature rose by less than 20°C above the initial ambient
conditions.
- image courtesy of Thales Fire King brochure by War Wheels Online Journal
Built in Australia, the FireKing was designed
following extensive research from stakeholders
responsible for combating bushfires in Australia.
Why do these same stakeholders
still refuse to buy this
REWAADSADEDTERTERERTHETHE
MARDER
equipment that they helped design
more than 14 years ago ?
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FIRE FIGHTING VARIANTS OF MILITARY VEHICLES - MARDER
The Marder 1A3 Infantry Fighting Vehicle [IFV] in use by the German Army. ARMOU
HHHHHHHH
The IFV Marder – well regarded by the German
Army – image courtesy of Army Recognition Online
Journal
Also completely rejected by ADF, CFA and RFS
Headquarters commanders, the Marder = Airmatic /
SK TEC RED adds more crew-safe ‘knockdown
power’ to the firefighters arsenal. With a fireretardant & water payload of 7,500 litres, the remotecontrolled water-monitor operator does not leave the
vehicle to fight fires.
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FIRE FIGHTING VARIANTS OF MILITARY VEHICLES – LOSCHPANZER
The Leopard 1A3 AS-1 was assessed as a successful armoured vehicle by the Australian Army.
Australian modified Leopard 1A3 in tactical mode during
training exercises – image courtesy of reddit
Despite proven Australian Army experience with our own
Leopard AFVs, once again every state-of-the-art armoured
variant was rejected by ADF, CFA and RFS Headquarters
commanders.
This Jumbo 5000 [US gallons] variant of the Leopard 1 is
on fire-fighting operations in the US.
V
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TIME FOR CHANGE = TODAY
If Australians decide to stop the never-ending, deadly drought and bushfire cycles, then it
requires new strategies and tactics. Not after the next catastrophe – but today!
Geoffrey Keaton and Andrew O'Dwyer, both experienced NSW RFS volunteers from
the Horsley Park Brigade, died when a tree fell into the path of their tanker, prompting
the vehicle to roll off the road.
Alberta highway 63 near Fort McMurray, Canada [2012]. Canadians have placed a
Land Management Zone between the roads and the forests, just like the Asset Protection
Zone used by the Tasmanian Fire Service – see page 19.
Comment: Trees are well clear from roadways. These open fuel-break spaces will enable
firefighting vehicles to safely transit and conduct firefighting operations. We must add
these LMZs to our road infrastructure designs, via Australian Standards.
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This Jerrabomberra Creek brigade vehicle was in an incident where two trees fell on their
truck. Note the fallen log behind this truck – if this happens during a flashover/burnover,
then crew lives will be in critical danger.
Image courtesy of the NSW RFS
A fire tanker [below] – cabin crushed by fallen tree at Jumbuk during the Yinnar South
bushfire.
Image courtesy of Darrian Traynor/Getty
Comment: Both vehicles have been immobilised. Should this happen during escape &
evasion ops from a fast-moving fire front, crew lives will be at risk. Armoured vehicles
do not crush so easily.
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These vehicles have a multi-role use. They include sites such as industrial, airports,
chemical/flammable, harbours, forests, grasslands, Petroleum – Oil – Lubricant [POL]
production and storage facilities, pipelines, power stations, etc,
Significance: Why has the entire Australian leadership failed to include safety vehicles
like these to counter fire or terrorist threats?
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EXAMPLES OF BUSHFIRE DESTRUCTION
In 2019, Kangaroo Island [KI] was a premier tourist attraction for local and global
travellers.
The Tourism Australia Research figures for KI show the four-year
average tourism visits were 42,000 international tourists a year and
108,000 domestic overnight visitors a year.
“As I’ve probably stated before, tourism accounts for approximately 35
per cent of the Island’s Gross Regional Product and about 22 per
cent of the employment,” Mr Gregor said. “As such, tourism is a
major economic pillar for the Island.”
Image courtesy of Kayne Davis
These before and after images of KI – collated by boredpanda – clearly show the narrow
road infrastructure. There are no LMZ, fuel breaks, or fire-trails enabling firefighters
collateral access and/or possible escape for anyone trapped – see page 17-19.
Comment: Where do locals and tourists seek shelter when bushfires cut this road?
Will the KI residents and authorities include any vital bushfire safety elements when
they rebuild?
Consider: Legal and litigation threats should hundreds of people had been injured or
perished during this catastrophe on Kangaroo Island. Was there a mass casualty
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evacuation plan for injured & burns victims to be air-lifted to Adelaide for complex
healthcare?
THREAT ANALYSIS ~ HUMAN TOLL
The direct death toll from Black Saturday was 173, with more than 400 severely burned.
The 2020 Black Summer death toll was 33, including 9 firefighters, however, indirect
deaths of 450 people were caused by the toxic smoke plumes across QLD, NSW, ACT
and Victoria. This research letter by Nicholas Borchers Arriagada et al, reports;
“Such fires have substantial social, ecological, and economic effects,
including the effects on public health associated with smoke, such as
premature mortality and exacerbation of cardio-respiratory
conditions.”
Their concluding remarks recommend;
“Expanded and diversified approaches to bushfire mitigation and
adaptation to living in an increasingly hot and fire-prone country are
urgently needed.”
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The above table details hospital caseloads due to toxic smoke inhalation.
THREAT ANALYSIS – LAND, FAUNA AND FLORA DAMAGE
This 10 January 2020 report from ABC Viceland, clearly shows the immense scale of
Australia’s recent bushfire carnage.
The Australian Parliamentary reports [12 March 2020] that ‘over 17 million hectares
were burned’ and that 3,094 houses had been lost across QLD, NSW, ACT, VIC, SA
and WA. The NT also experienced significant bushfire destruction of about 6.8 million
hectares.
Running away from an advancing bushfire front is not a viable option for humans.
Many of our unique and slow moving fauna were overrun in this catastrophe.
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There have been reports that over 1 billion of Australian vertebrate fauna, including birds
have been destroyed. Research from published scientific literature and other relevant data
was analysed by Prof Dickman [Sydney University] and his colleagues to estimate the
average density of various fauna groups, including mammals, birds and reptiles in NSW.
Further analysis enabled them to report;
“With parts of East Gippsland also on fire, Professor Dickman and his
colleagues thought it was reasonable to extrapolate the densities from
New South Wales into the adjacent Victorian habitats.
"If you do that, you end up with an area burned of about 6.25 million
hectares, which equates to over 1 billion animals in the path of the
fires," he said.
But this number is clearly an underestimate, Professor Dickman added,
because we know that across Australia more than 12.6 million hectares
has been burned.” – now updated to at least 17 million hectares.
This estimate does not include bats, frogs or fish as there were no density estimates
available to enable statistical modelling.
Losses of invertebrates like bees, butterflies and other insects are also of concern to Prof
Dickman et al;
"Then if you expand it to include invertebrates ... as many as 240
billion have been incinerated by the fires in just New South Wales and
Victoria alone."
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SOME SOLUTIONS ~ HISTORY RHYMES
“History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes” – often attributed to Samuel Clemens
[Mark Twain] – applies to the continuing failure of our leaders to address vital historical
lessons about bushfires.
This 11 November 2019 interview by Andrew Bolt with veteran Australian bushfire
scientist David Packham, succinctly explains why the subsequent Black Summer 2020
bushfires were so devastating;
Primary factors include the weather; ignitions; fuel loads; how dryness of fuel + low
humidity can drastically affect fire intensity; how wind velocity determines the “fury” of
the fire.
The only thing that we humans can control is the fuel loads. Inquiries and Royal
Commissions have handed down these findings many times, but nothing is done.
Near the end of the interview, David quotes from another veteran bushfire expert, who
states that there are 4 groups ‘benefiting’ from these catastrophes;
1. The Green Party and supporters – it justifies their global warming agenda.
2. Fire agencies – claiming that they need more money.
3. Politicians – seen to be comforting the victims during the tragedy and thus
increasing their political ratings.
4. The Media – they can go out for “war stories, have a lovely time and do not get
shot at.”
Meanwhile the nation continues burning to ashes.!
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RADIANT MODELLING FOR BUSHFIRES
Graph courtesy of Science Direct
Data courtesy of CSIRO
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BUSHFIRES~ 110 YEARS OF ANALYSIS
This article by the ABC reports that approximately 80% of people killed by bushfires
over the past 110 years, died within 30 metres of a forest;
The definition of a forest is bushland covering more
than 0.2 hectares — about the size of four house blocks
People and properties located within 100 metres of a forest are the most at risk
– image courtesy of Luke Porter
The ABC report also includes research from Risk Frontiers, a private research company
modelling natural hazard risks, reports;
“……has estimated that nearly 1 million addresses in Australia are
located less than 100 metres from bushland, putting them at the highest
risk from bushfires — though not all those addresses have a house or
structure on them.”
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BUSHFIRES~ 110 YEARS OF ANALYSIS
Between 1910 and 2011, 825 people lost their lives in more than 260 bushfires across
Australia. Of those killed 92 were firefighters.
This lists 18 of the top 25 Local Govt Areas with a large
proportion of high-risk addresses
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FUEL LOADS AND FIRE INTENSITY
There is an exponential relationship between fuel load and fire intensity.
Fuel load and fire intensity relationships – courtesy of Volunteer Fire Fighters Association NSW
Note that the fire intensity is measured in kilowatts per metre of bushfire front. Therefore
a fire front of 1,000 metres [1 km] with 30 tonnes per hectare of fuel load, will have a
combined energy output of 5,200,000 kilowatts or 5.2 Gigawatts, across this entire front.
Generally for dismounted firefighters [standing or walking close to fire front] the
distance where the calculated radiant heat loads are 1 k∙W∙m−2 and 3
k∙W∙m−2 4) respectively are expected to be safe distances from large scale fires. These
calculated distances are called the 1 k∙W∙m−2 and 3 k∙W∙m−2 radiation contours.
Comment: One objective of armoured strike team assets is to significantly reduce direct
heat radiation to firefighter crews. Firefighters mounted in protective armoured vehicles
can fight fires with closed hatches – reducing exposure to toxic smoke – because of
onboard NBC capability.
They are also ready to rapidly withdraw, with maximum protection from fast-moving
fire-fronts, lethal burnovers/flashovers and falling tree branches.
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FUNDING THE DEFENCE FROM DROUGHT AND WILDFIRES
By CAPT Graham Bates
28NOV2018: Updated 21APR2020
BACKGROUND
In recent years, Parliaments across Australia have introduced legislation to fund fire
and/or rescue related operations. This is achieved through direct budget allocations and
in some cases emergency management levies paid by prescribed property owners across
each State and Territory.
Total income [including levies] raised by Queensland for 2017 – 2018 was $685.5 million.
Total income from the NSW Rural Fire Services for 2016 – 2017 was $381.6 million.
Fire Services property levy funds for Victoria 2017 – 2018 was $694.1 million.
Total cash inflows for the Tasmanian State Fire Commission 2017 – 2018 were $93.7
million.
South Australian Fire & Emergency Service Commission income 2017 – 2018 was
$268.1 million.
Dept of Fire and Emergency Services for West Australia income 2016 – 2017 was $395.6
million.
Northern Territory Fire and Emergency Services income 2017 – 2018 was $38.1 million.
Australian Capital Territory – unable to clearly identify. See statistics from the budget
figures for total Commonwealth Fire and Emergency services funding.
Revenue of fire service organisations across the Commonwealth of Australia.
Note;
1. Funding discrepancies within State and Territory figures may be due to
separation between metropolitan and rural fire services and budget years.
2. Does not include funding for State and Territory Emergency Services [SES].
3. Does not include funds allocated to the Natural Disaster Relief and Recovery
Arrangements used to provide assistance with relief and recovery efforts following
an eligible natural disaster event.
Total cash payments to states and territories in 2016 - 2017 totalled $1.1 billion
[Chapter 9 page 3]
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Total revenue generated for Australian fire services in 2016 – 2017 was $3.83 billion.
Comment: Have these funds been reconciled against buying state-of-the-art fire-fighting
vehicles to upgrade & increase firefighter fleet numbers?
These questions about funding must be a priority to see “where the money has been
spent – and did Australians get value for money”
ALTERNATIVE FUNDING OPTIONS
On 15 December 2019, the new director of the Australian War Memorial [AWM]
defended its controversial $500 million redevelopment, vowing to expand the
institution's mandate by focussing on living veterans and more recent conflicts.
Matt Anderson was Australia's deputy high commissioner in London and has now been
selected to replace retiring boss Brendan Nelson. Mr Anderson now has the task of
managing the AWM during the largest extension since it opened in 1941.
The $500 million upgrade will take nine years and include a new southern entrance,
reconfigured galleries and 4000 square metres of new exhibition space.
Artists impression after the new expansion of the Australian War Memorial
– image courtesy of The Sydney Morning Herald
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One primary opponent to the expansion is Major General Steve Gower [ret’d], who was
Dr Nelson's predecessor as director. MAJGEN Gower describes the plan as a “prize
example of philistine vandalism masquerading as progress” and an “egregious waste of
money”.
Given the recent Black Summer Bushfire catastrophe, perhaps this expansion should be
postponed and funding re-allocated to the development of new strategies and equipment,
to stop the never-ending bushfire carnage.
Update: Post COVID-19 – The Black Summer Bushfires destroyed lives, livelihoods,
businesses in rural/urban regions, including the massive destruction of forests,
woodlands, farms and more than 1 billion fauna.
With many of our forests containing fuel loads of 20 tonnes/hectare and more, our
country and its people have truly been engulfed in an Inferno.
The aftermath of COVID-19 will see Australians with a slower increase in job
opportunities. For example, tourism and international travel may take many months to
return to normal pre-pandemic levels.
Black Summer 2020 rehabilitation works relating to urgent bushfire preparation and
mitigation before the next fire season are urgent. Clearance of dead trees; rebuilding,
extension of fire-trails and fuel breaks; creation of Land Management Zones along the
Urban Rural Interface are but a few examples.
Creating well-designed asset protection zones along roads & highways is also a priority.
These tasks, including planting/regrowth may be ideal opportunities for ADF veterans
experiencing transitional stress difficulties with civilian employment.
There are increasing demands from veteran’s groups for a Royal Commission or an
Inquiry into Veterans unemployment and rising suicide rates.
Rather than make a static structure as a memorial linchpin , our plan fulfills the AWM
mandate of “focussing upon living veterans”, stated by director Matt Anderson.
Our plan provides a living & dynamic memorial to our veterans in this modern era.
Our veterans will also have an option of adapting their successful war-fighting skills to
new firefighting and drought mitigation skills – but only for those who so choose.
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ROYAL AUSTRALIAN ENGINEERS + PETER ANDREWS OAM
The role of the Royal Australian Engineers [RAE] is to provide geospatial, combat and
force-support engineering capabilities to enable joint manoeuvre and survivability.
Returned veterans with sapper [RAE] training and experience would easily comprehend
the principles of Natural Sequence Farming [NSF] as developed by Peter Andrews OAM
and the late Tony Coote AM from The Mulloon Institute. NSF technology applies not
only to farms but also National Parks, State forests and the Urban Rural Interface.
Short video – Peter Andrews OAM – the principles of Natural Sequence Farming.
This 28 min video from ABC Australian Story [2018] provides an in-depth documentary.
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ROYAL AUSTRALIAN ENGINEERS + THE MULLOON INSTITUTE
This 2013 video by the late Tony Coote AM provides more successful evidence about the
NSF project.
This ABC Australian Story 2018 documentary about the Mulloon Creek experience
drives the point home.
If this video is “unavailable” this hyperlink will take you there!
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PUBLISHED WORKS
Below is a short list of my published reports;
First article of ‘Lessons’ series
Independent Australia – online journal
Second article in the ‘Lessons’ series
Independent Australia – online journal
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Third article in the ‘Lessons’ series
Independent Australia – online journal
Fourth article in the ‘Lessons’ series
The Wildfire Hunter
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CONCLUSION
During the 11 years between 2009 and 2020, no substantial progress has been made to;
•
Reduce the fuel loads within the Urban-Rural-Interface [URI]
•
Include asset protection zones along highways – Main Supply Routes [MSR] –
between cities and towns, necessary for escape and evasion routes during bushfire
catastrophes. Prime example – Mallacoota township.
•
Introduce state-of-the-art armoured bushfire vehicles to boost combat power and
maximum protection of firefighting crews.
•
Incorporate the successful hydration methods of landscape and watercourse
works of Peter Andrews OAM and the late Tony Coote AM in local fire-plans.
•
Harness the waste heat from power stations and/or heavy industry for saltwater
desalination via proven Cogeneration/Trigeneration technologies, as they have
been doing in the Middle East for years. Thus refill our inland rivers and
waterways.
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RAMIFICATIONS OF INACTION
My comments below were sent in our second Submission to the 2009 Victorian Bushfires
Royal Commission, on 24NOV2009
They all came true in 2020.
Citizens have once again paid the price for failed leadership!
------------------------Start of message to 2009 VBRC--------------------------------“I appreciate all the input that you are receiving from the community, but.
Are you aware that other Government Authorities are still awaiting a leadership decision
from the Royal Commission before moving forward with any of these new strategies that
I have outlined??
Perhaps it is time to consider -- what would happen in the event of more catastrophes of
a similar or even larger scale than Black Saturday Firestorms this coming 2009 / 2010
fire- season??
"Well, we were awaiting on recommendations/decisions from the Victorian Royal
Commission, so it is not our fault that they have failed to address the 'New Strategies' for
future development.!"
You may call me paranoid, however, I am sure that you have seen overwhelming
similarities between Real Life and 'Yes Minister!!'
Blame-shifting at its best,
Please contact me as per my details below.”
---------------------End of Message sent to 2009 VBRC ------------------------------
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