DETERMINANTS OF BEANS PRODUCTION IN TANZANIA A CASE OF KIGOMA REGION BY SIKUJUA NJILE SAMWEL 1524010101898 A Research Project Report Submitted to the Eastern Africa Statistical Training Centre in Partial Fulfillment for the Award of Bachelor Degree in Official Statistics of Eastern Africa Statistical Training Centre August, 2021 CERTIFICATION The undersigned certify that she has read and here by recommend for acceptance by the Eastern Africa Statistical Training Centre the research project report titled: Determinants of beans production in Tanzania a case of Kigoma region, in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the award of Bachelor’s Degree in Official Statistics of the Eastern Africa Statistical Training Centre. ______________________________ Ms. Nyambilila Minga (Supervisor) Date: ________________________ i DECLARATION AND COPYRIGHT I, Sikujua Njile Samwel, declare that this research project report is my own original work, and that it has not been presented and will not presented to any other higher learning institution for a similar or any other degree award. Signature: _____________________ Date: _________________________ This research project report is copyright material protected under the Berne Convention, the Copyright Act of 1999 and other international and national enactments. No part of this research project report may be reproduced, stored in any retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written permission of the author or EASTC. ii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS First and foremost, I thank God, the Almighty for giving me this opportunity and granting me the gift of life, grace and strength throughout the capability to successfully accomplish this research project. I am grateful to several individuals who have been influenced me in one way or another and made this piece of work possible. I would wish to state my deep and sincere appreciation foremost to my supervisor Ms. Nyambilila Minga for her technical guidance, corrections, suggestions and valuable inputs which helped to shape this study. Furthermore, I am also thankful to the research project coordinators Mr. Tuntufye Mwakasisi for his guidance and clarification on research project matters. Moreover I am grateful to Mr. Leguma Bakari, Mr. Nelson Ndifwa and Mr. Edwin Magoti for their valuable discussions on my analysis whenever I approached them for any inquiries. I am also grateful to the entire EASTC staff for their support and services rendered. Lastly but not least, special thanks to my family, my friends and my course mates (Bachelor third year students of 2020/2021) at EASTC for the company and support they gave me throughout period of study. iii DEDICATION This research report is dedicated to my supervisor, family, relatives, colleagues and friends for their love, support and aspirations. iv LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AASS Annual Agriculture Sample Survey FAOSTAT Food and Agriculture Organization Corporate Statistical Database URT United Republic of Tanzania ICRISAT International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics FAO Food and Agriculture Organization NBS National Bureau of Statistics CIAT Centro International de Agricultural Tropical (International Centre for tropical Agriculture) UN United Nation UNESCO United Nations Education, Scientific Cultural Organization OECD Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development WTO World Trade Organization v ABSTRACT This study investigates determinants of beans production in Tanzania, a case of Kigoma region. The source of data from National bureau of Statistics (NBS) in Annual Agricultural Sample Survey (AASS), 2014/2015. STATA version 15 package was used as a tool for data analysis whereby multiple regression was used to find out the determinants of beans production and correlation was to determine the relationship between planted acres and beans production both during short rain season and long rain season. The study revealed that majority of farmers perform small scale farming that use small piece of land and poor technology in beans production The study also revealed that small scale farmers depend on rainfall because during short rain season beans tends to be low and long rain season production tends to be high. Furthermore the study shows that average price tends to be high in short rain season because low production of beans but in long rain season the average price tends to be low because of high production of beans. Moreover, The study therefore recommend that the government should develop strategic policies to promote quality farming method in order to help farmers from farming more beans, government should employ various measures to maintain farm price, reliable market and income for their beans output such as exporting beans to international market. vi TABLE OF CONTENTS CERTIFICATION ........................................................................................................ i DECLARATION AND COPYRIGHT ........................................................................ ii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ...........................................................................................iii DEDICATION .............................................................................................................iv LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ...................................................................................... v ABSTRACT .................................................................................................................vi LIST OF TABLES .......................................................................................................xi LIST OF FIGURES .................................................................................................... xii CHAPTER ONE .......................................................................................................... 1 INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Background of the study .................................................................................... 1 1.2 Statement of the problem ................................................................................... 3 1.3 Objectives of the study ....................................................................................... 4 1.3.1 General objective ......................................................................................... 4 1.3.2 Specific objectives ....................................................................................... 4 1.4 Research hypothesis ........................................................................................... 4 CHAPTER TWO ......................................................................................................... 6 LITERATURE REVIEW ............................................................................................ 6 vii 2.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................ 6 2.2 Definitions of terms ............................................................................................ 6 2.3 Theoretical Literature Review ............................................................................ 7 2.4 Empirical Literature Review .............................................................................. 8 2.5 Conceptual frame work .................................................................................... 11 2.6 Research Gap .................................................................................................... 12 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY............................................................................... 13 3.1 Introduction ...................................................................................................... 13 3.2 Study area ......................................................................................................... 13 3.3 Research Approach .......................................................................................... 14 3.4 Target population ............................................................................................. 14 3.5 Data source ....................................................................................................... 14 3.6 Measurement of Variables................................................................................ 15 3.7 Data analysis .................................................................................................... 15 3.7.1 Descriptive analysis ................................................................................... 15 3.7.2 Inferential statistics .................................................................................... 16 CHAPTER FOUR ...................................................................................................... 18 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS ...................................................... 18 4.0 Introduction ...................................................................................................... 18 viii 4.1 Descriptive analysis .......................................................................................... 18 4.1.1 Descriptive analysis of planted acres during long rain season. ................. 18 4.1.2 Descriptive analysis of quantity of beans harvested during long rain season. ................................................................................................................. 18 4.1.3 Descriptive analysis of harvested acres of beans during long rain season. 19 4.1.4 Descriptive analysis of value sold (Tsh) of beans during long rain season. ............................................................................................................................ 20 4.1.5 Descriptive analysis of planted acres during short rain season. ................ 20 4.1.6 Descriptive analysis of quantity harvested during short rain season. ........ 21 4.1.7 Descriptive analysis of harvested acres during short rain season. ............. 21 4.8 Descriptive analysis of value sold during short rain season. ........................ 22 4.2 Inferential statistics .......................................................................................... 22 Correlation .............................................................................................................. 22 4.2.1 Relationship between quantity harvested and planted acres during .... 23 Short rain season ................................................................................................. 23 4.2.2 Relationship between quantity harvested (beans production) and planted acres during long rain season ................................................................. 24 4.3 Multiple linear regression................................................................................. 25 4.3.1 Effects of value sold, harvested acres and average price on harvested acres (beans production) during short rain season. ...................................................... 28 ix 4.3.2 Effects of value sold, harvested acres and average price on harvested acres (beans production) during long rain season. ....................................................... 31 4.4 Discussion of findings ...................................................................................... 34 4.4.1 Relationship between planted acres and quantity of beans harvested ....... 34 4.4.2 Effects of harvested acres on quantity harvested (beans production)........ 34 4.4.3 Effect of value sold on quantity harvested (beans production) ................. 34 4.4.4 Effect of average price on quantity harvested (beans production) ............ 34 CHAPTER FIVE ....................................................................................................... 36 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS ...................................................... 36 5.0 Introduction ...................................................................................................... 36 5.1 Summary .......................................................................................................... 36 5.2 Conclusion ........................................................................................................ 37 5.3 Recommendations ............................................................................................ 38 5.3.1 General recommendations ......................................................................... 38 5.3.2 Recommendations for further studies ........................................................ 38 REFERENCES .......................................................................................................... 39 LIST OF APPENDICES ............................................................................................ 42 Appendix: Data used .............................................................................................. 42 x LIST OF TABLES Table 3. 1 Measurements of Variables....................................................................... 15 Table 4. 1 Planted acres in long rain season. ............................................................. 18 Table 4. 2 Quantity harvested in long season. ........................................................... 19 Table 4. 3 Harvested acres during long rain season. .................................................. 19 Table 4. 4 Value sold during long rain season ........................................................... 20 Table 4. 5 Planted acres during short rain season. ..................................................... 20 Table 4. 6 Quantity harvested during short rain season. ............................................ 21 Table 4. 7 Harvested acres during short rain season. ................................................. 21 Table 4. 8 Value sold during short rain season. ......................................................... 22 Table 4. 9 Quantity harvested and planted acres ....................................................... 23 Table 4. 10 Quantity harvested and area planted ....................................................... 24 Table 4. 11 Model summary for short rain season ..................................................... 25 Table 4. 12 Model summary for long rain season...................................................... 26 Table 4. 13 Multicollinearity for long rain season ..................................................... 26 Table 4. 14 Multicollinearity during short rain season .............................................. 27 Table 4. 15 Multiple linear regression results ............................................................ 29 Table 4. 16 Multiple linear regression results. ........................................................... 32 xi LIST OF FIGURES Figure 2.1 Conceptual Framework............................................................................. 12 xii CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION 1.1 Background of the study Agriculture plays a fundamental important role in the economic growth and development predictions most of the majority of developing countries including Tanzania (World Trade Organization [WTO], 2019). The sector contributing approximately Gross Domestic Product (29%) in Tanzania (URT, 2017), amongst the important agricultural subsectors in Tanzania are livestock, fishery, agro-forestry and crops. The production of beans is the one of food crop in Tanzania appears popular among small-scale farmers because beans takes a short duration (2.5-4 months) which permits production even when rainfall is erratic. Tanzania ranks 5th worldwide in beans production and is the leading producer of beans in Africa which is produced almost entirely under intercropped systems with maize and other crops by smallholders farmers who operate 1 to 5 acres, on the average produced over 70% of national bean production in Tanzania for own consumption and for markets about 40% of the harvested are marketed by households (FAOSTAT, 2014). The production of beans contributes the growth of economy in countries such Africa countries. Tanzania is the producer of beans in East Africa and largest producer in Africa (Kilimo Trust, 2013, Larochelle et al., 2017) where beans are the most exported pulses from Tanzania contributing about 62% of all Tanzanian pulse exports (URT, 1 2016), mainly exported to Netherlands and India also, neighboring countries like Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, DR Congo, Zambia (Ronner and Giller, 2013). About 80% of Tanzanians depend on agriculture for their livelihood. Therefore, the National Development Vision 2025, main national development strategy in Tanzania, places considerable emphasis on the sector and envisages that by 2025 the economy will have been transformed from a low productivity agricultural economy to a semiindustrialized one led by modernized and highly productive agricultural activities that are integrated with industrial and service activities in urban and rural areas. The Agricultural Sector Development Strategy (ASDS) was adopted in 2001, and gave rise to the Agricultural Sector Development Program (ASDP) of 2005; and the Cooperative Development Policy (CDP) of 2002, complemented by a variety of sector policies. The strategy and the ASDP are embedded in the National Strategy for Growth and Reduction of Poverty (NSGRP), which is a medium-term plan to realize Vision 2025. Kilimo Kwanza (agriculture first), developed in 2009, provides additional inputs for the implementation of ASDP and other programs favorable for the agricultural sector. It is an assertion of the commitment of the government and the private sector to agricultural development, and it invites all Tanzanians to become part of this commitment. The major production areas of beans in Tanzania are in the northern regions; Arusha, Kilimanjaro and Manyara, the Great Lakes/West; Kagera and Kigoma, the Southern Highlands; Mbeya, Iringa and Rukwa (Larochelle et al., 2017) In Kigoma Region agriculture is the main economic activity, employing over 70% of the population, dominated by small-scale farmers, especially women. The major crops 2 are maize, beans, cassava, rice, bananas, oil palm, coffee, tobacco and various fruits and vegetables. The production of beans is mostly produced in Kasulu and Kibondo districts which shows the highest potential in development by looks on the market potential which contributes to the household food security and the income of the household (Sustainable Agriculture Kigoma Region Project [SAKiRP],2015). 1.2 Statement of the problem Beans is the most important food and cash crop in Tanzania with high in nutrients and commercial potential. Bean provides high nutrients includes a combination of carbohydrates (60-65%), proteins (21-25%), fats (less than 2%), vitamins and minerals. In fact, with increasing health concerns, most people especially the urban population are reducing consumption of animal proteins, and instead they are turning to pulses such as common bean due to its low-fat content (Mshenga&Birachi, 2017). Despite of having policies and strategies in Tanzania on agriculture such as Kilimo Kwanza (agriculture first), Agriculture Sector Development Program (ASDP) and coordinated sectorial approach which include programs aimed to ensure increase in bean production by smallholders for income and food security, the production of beans in Tanzania have been highly fluctuating. Statistics from Annual Agricultural Sample Survey shows that 2014/2015 there is decreasing of beans production which does not meet the demand of people. A number of studies on beans production had been conducted in Tanzania regions where beans are produced such as Mbeya, Kagera and Manyara. 3 But there is no study had been conducted in Kigoma region to examine the determinants of beans production such as planted acres, harvested acres, value sold and average price of beans. This study explores the determinants of beans production in Tanzania a case of Kigoma region, the effect of harvested acres, value sold and average price on beans production. 1.3 Objectives of the study 1.3.1 General objective The general objective of this study was to analyze the determinants of beans production in Tanzania, a case of Kigoma region. 1.3.2 Specific objectives i. To examine the relationship between Planted acres and beans production ii. To examine the effect of harvested acres on beans production iii. To examine the effect of value sold on beans production iv. To examine the effect of Average price on beans production 1.4 Research hypothesis 1. H0: There is no significance relationship between planted acres and quantity harvested (beans production) H1: There is significant relationship between planted acres and quantity harvested (beans production) 2. H0: There is no significant effect of harvested acres on quantity harvested (beans production) H1: There is significant effect of harvested acres on quantity harvested (beans production) 4 3. H0: There is no significance effect of value sold on quantity harvested (beans production) H1: There is significant effect of value sold on quantity harvested (beans production) beans production 4. H0: There is no significant effect of average price on quantity harvested (beans production) H1: There is significant effect of average price on quantity harvested (beans production) 1.5 Significance of the study The study will be useful to agriculture sector particularly the legume subsector in planning appropriate and consistence strategies which will create a comprehensive awareness to strategies such as smallholders’ farmers and researchers also, will be beneficial to the farmers for them to improve their farming system and skills for better quality and improved output. 5 CHAPTER TWO LITERATURE REVIEW 2.1 Introduction This chapter focus on the definitions of terms theoretical literature reviews and empirical literature reviews basing on information from different scholars and other researchers who carried out their research concerning the determinants of beans production, also consists of conceptual framework and research gap. 2.2 Definitions of terms Agriculture Refers to the science or art of producing crops, practice of cultivating the soil and raising livestock and in varying degrees for the preparation and advertising of the resulting products, (Merriam Webster Dictionary, 2018) Production Production is the creation of output of goods and services which values and contributes to the utility of the individual. Beans The edible nutritious seed of various plants of the legume family, especially of the ge nus Phaseolus, (free Dictionary, 2005) 6 2.3 Theoretical Literature Review There are several factors affects the production of beans, many agriculture production theories apply to beans production since it is a food crop. These agriculture production theories are discussed as follows. Orodho, (2005) discussed the theoretical focus on increasing agricultural output and improving income distribution in the rural sector may be the only effective way to get their economies moving. Productivity can be improved by use of high yielding varieties of seed, application of fertilizer, good farming practices and the development of intermediate or appropriate technologies to complement labor. A number of critical factors constrain the productivity of small-scale farmers; these include hostile climate, poor soils, rapid population growth, limited market opportunities, and a lack of commitment to rural development by the government (Munyeko, 1994: Orodho, 1984) Production theory Production theory explains the relationship between inputs and outputs, which is the transformation of factor inputs into outputs (Thomas and Maurrice, 2008). Debertin (2012) defines Production function as the technical relationship that transforms inputs resources into outputs commodities. According to Rasmussen (2012) the theory of production economics is special in that the limits of economic behavior are defined by the technical production possibilities. Production technology is the decisive factor regarding the quantity produced and how it may be produced. Therefore, a very important part of the theory of production economics consists of describing the production technology which defines the framework for the economic behavior. Production technology is, in its most general form, a description of the relationship 7 between input and produced output. The description of production technical relationships is based on empirical observation of relationships between inputs and outputs. Generally, production always includes at least two, and often more, inputs (Rasmussen, 2012). 2.4 Empirical Literature Review A study conducted in Tanzania by Letaa et al.(2015) using probity model on Farm Level Adoption and Spatial Diffusion of Improved Common Bean Varieties in Southern Highlands of Tanzania revealed that factors such as perceptions about soil fertility status and plot distance from residence, agricultural wealth, number of dependents, access to off farm income and years of experience in bean growing, distance from the village to main road, agricultural credit, significantly influenced the adoption of the improved varieties. The results further show that the improved varieties have extensively diffused in the study area, with new improved bean varieties replacing old ones. The research carried out by Challa and Tilahun (2014) on the determinants and Impacts of Modern Agricultural Technology Adoption in West Wollega, Ethiopia using the logistic regression showed that household heads’ education level, farm size, credit accessibility, perception of farmers about cost of the inputs and off-farm income positively and significantly affected the farm households’ adoption decision; while family size affected their decision negatively and significantly. 8 Teferi et al. (2015) conducted a study on factors that affect the adoption of improved beans varieties by smallholder farmers in Central Oromia, Ethiopia using logit model, the findings revealed that adoption of the improved maize varieties among households was found to be positively influenced by adult-literacy, family size, livestock wealth, access to output market and credit access for the new varieties. On the other hand, farmer associations, distance to main markets and fertilizer credit negatively influenced adoption. Musimu, (2018) assessed economics of small holder common beans production in Tanzania specifically in Mbeya. The study uses the data sources from both secondary and primary data sources obtained by administering a semi structured questionnaire. The methodology employed in the study were multiple linear regression to examine economics of small holder common beans production. The results show that the crop pests and diseases, unreliable rainfall, high price of farm inputs, unreliable market, shortage of land, price fluctuation and low capital are the major challenges faced beans producers in the study area. The study also conclude that common beans production is profitable and contributes significantly in creating cash income and employment in the study area. 9 Idrisa et al. (2012) in their study examined the determinants of adoption of improved soybean seeds among farmers in southern Borno State, Nigeria employed Logit model and Tobit model, they indicated that yield of soybean and distance to source of improved seeds were statistically significant factors that influenced the likelihood of adoption of improved soybean seeds among the respondents. Also they reported that farm size and distance of respondents to source of improved soybean seeds were statistically significant factors (ρ ≤ 0.01) that influenced the extent of adoption of improved soybean seeds among the respondents. Sibiko, (2012) examined the determinants of common bean productivity and efficiency in Eastern Uganda. The data for the study was generated from Primary data collected for the 2010/2011 season using personally administered structured questionnaires and through observation method. The study uses descriptive statistics included the frequencies, means and standard deviations. It was established that bean productivity was positively influenced by plot size, ordinary seeds, certified seeds and planting fertilizers. Also, the study suggests on the need for policy to discourage land fragmentation, develop road and market infrastructure in rural areas and provide affordable and easily available credit facilities to improve production efficiency of bean farms. 10 Karane, (2016) examined the factors influencing on-farm common bean profitability Tanzania. The data for the study was generated from primary source collected from the smallholder farmers in the field using structured interview schedules method. The study employed Multiple Regression Analysis approach and Logistic Regression method. The result show that age of respondents; gender; yield; selling price (farmgate price); access to credit; and off-farm income affected the gross margin realized by smallholder farmers. Similarly, age of respondents; gender; family size; education level (years of schooling); farm-gate price; distance to the market; and off-farm income influenced the quantity of bean supplied to the market. This implies that, if this study is positively recognized by bean industry stakeholders, it may significantly contribute as a source of information for improving bean profitability and food security. 2.5 Conceptual frame work The conceptual framework was used to show the relationships between dependent and independent variables of the study. The independent variables planted acres, harvested acres, average price and value sold and the dependent variable was beans production. 11 Figure 2.1 Conceptual Framework DEPENDENT VARIABLE INDEPENDENT VARIABLES Planted acres Quantity of beans produced Average price Value sold Harvested acres 2.6 Research Gap There are different literatures describing production and productivity of beans in many areas but most of the study has been done in major areas where beans are produced in Tanzania such as Mbeya, and Manyara. This study was focus on Kigoma region specifically to study the determinants of beans production in term of planted acres, value sold, harvested acres and average price. Therefore, the study as different from many references in term of study area and objectives of the study. 12 CHAPTER THREE RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 3.1 Introduction This chapter presents research strategies and techniques that used in the study. It describes the study area, research design, sources of data and methods of data analysis. 3.2 Study area The study area was conducted in Kigoma region which is located on the shores of Lake Tanganyika at the North - West corner of Tanzania. It shares boundaries with Burundi and Kagera region to the North, Shinyanga and Tabora regions to the East, Congo to the West and Rukwa region to the South. It has an area of 45066 Square kilometers which is equivalent to 4.8% of the total area of Tanzania of which 8029 square kilometers is water and 37,037 square kilometers is land area. According to Kigoma region socio-economic profile report shows that agriculture is the predominant economic sector in Kigoma region. Over 85% of the total population of the region depend on agriculture for its livelihood. The majority of agricultural production come from stallholders who employ very little capital. Agricultural production in Kigoma region depend mostly on natural rains for crop growing. The major crops are maize, beans, cassava, bananas, groundnuts, oil palm, coffee, cotton and tobacco. Legumes are important food crops which have traditionally been a source of protein in Kigoma region. The most popular leguminous crop is beans. Soils throughout the region are suitable for beans growing. 13 The present study was conducted in Kigoma region. The region was conducted due to its high potential for producing beans when the statistics shows that Kigoma region recently produces total production of beans is about 0.8 tons/ha in (AASS, 2014/2015). The production of beans among other pulses in Kigoma is much higher than in other region in Tanzania, with a planted area of 99,753 ha. 3.3 Research Approach The study used quantitative approach involves a cross sectional study that allows data to be collected from a target population selected at single point in time. The reason for choosing this design is due to its suitability for description purposes as well as the determination of the relationship between the variables. 3.4 Target population The study population were the people in Tanzania specifically in Kigoma region where the population was 2,127,930 according to 2012 Population housing census, but the targeted population was all farmers involving in beans production for the year 20142015 in Kigoma according Annual Agriculture Sample Survey (2014-2015 AASS). 3.5 Data source Secondary data were obtained from Annual Agriculture Sample Survey of 2014/2015 from National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). 14 3.6 Measurement of Variables Table 3. 1 Measurements of Variables Variables Measurement Dependent variable Beans production Ratio Independent variables Planted acres Ratio Value sold Ratio Harvested acres Ratio Average price Ratio 3.7 Data analysis Data was analyzed using STATA version 15. The study used both descriptive analysis and inferential analysis for statistical analysis. Whereby descriptive analysis was to examine the characteristics of the data while inferential statistics was employed to test the findings. 3.7.1 Descriptive analysis Descriptive statistics such as comparison of means, maximum, minimum and summary statistics was used to study the characteristics of the variables. 15 3.7.2 Inferential statistics In inferential statistics such as correlation and multiple linear regression analysis was employed, where regression was used to determine the relationship between planted acres and quantity harvested (beans production) and multiple linear regression was used to analyze the effects of (independent variables) value sold, planted acres, average price and harvested acres on (dependent variable) beans production. The mathematical model of multiple linear regression is given by: Y= ꞵ0 + ꞵ1X1 + ꞵ2X2 +ꞵ3X3 …+ ꞵkXk + εi Where Y=dependent variable ꞵ0= is the intercept (is the value of dependent variable (Yi) when the all independent variables (Xi) are zero ꞵ1, ꞵ2 …ꞵk = coefficient of variable x εi-the random error term With respect to the study variables the multiple linear regression will be Y=ꞵ0+ꞵ1X1 + ꞵ2X2 + ꞵ3X3 + еi Where: Y= Beans production X1= Value sold X2= Average price 16 X3= Harvested acres еi = Random error term 17 CHAPTER FOUR RESULTS AND DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS 4.0 Introduction This chapter discuss the findings which are based on this study in Kigoma region on the determinants of beans production, presents and discusses both descriptive statistics and inferential findings. 4.1 Descriptive analysis Descriptive analysis includes the summary of mean, maximum, minimum and summary statistics was used to study the characteristics of the variables as follows; 4.1.1 Descriptive analysis of planted acres during long rain season. Table 4. 1 Planted acres in long rain season. Variable Mean Max Min Planted acres 1.268939 7 0.25 Table 4.1 shows the average, minimum and maximum planted acres during long rain season. The average planted acres is 1.268939 in acres per each farmer, the maximum acres planted is 7 acres and the minimum is 0.25 acres. 4.1.2 Descriptive analysis of quantity of beans harvested during long rain season. 18 Table 4. 2 Quantity harvested in long season. Variable Mean max Min Quantity harvested 394.3636 2000 0 Table 4.2 shows the average, minimum and maximum of quantity harvested, average quantity harvested is 394.3636 kg per each farmer which the maximum quantity harvested is 2000kg and its minimum is 0kg which means after harvesting there are some planted areas had no any production. 4.1.3 Descriptive analysis of harvested acres of beans during long rain season. Table 4. 3 Harvested acres during long rain season. Variable Mean Max Min Harvested acres 1.246212 7 0 Table 4.3 shows average, maximum and minimum of harvested acres where by average harvested acres is 1.246212 acre per each farmer and its maximum and minimum is 7 acres and 0 acre respectively means that some of the planted acres are not harvested. 19 4.1.4 Descriptive analysis of value sold (Tsh) of beans during long rain season. Table 4. 4 Value sold during long rain season Variable Mean Max Min Value sold 198314.8 1800000 0 Table 4.4 shows Average, minimum and maximum number of Value sold in terms of Tsh, which shows that the average Value sold is Tsh 198314.8, minimum value sold is Tsh 0 which means that there are some amount harvested are not valued and are not sold during long rain season, the maximum value sold is Tsh 1800000. 4.1.5 Descriptive analysis of planted acres during short rain season. Table 4. 5 Planted acres during short rain season. Variable Mean min Max Planted acres 1.468534 0.25 10 Table 4.5 shows the average, maximum and minimum of planted acres during short rain season which shows that the average acres per farmer is 1.468534 acres, minimum planted acres is 0.25 acre and the maximum planted acres is 10 acres. 20 4.1.6 Descriptive analysis of quantity harvested during short rain season. Table 4. 6 Quantity harvested during short rain season. Variable mean Min Max Quantity harvested 572.2457 0 9000 Table 4.6 shows the average, maximum and minimum of quantity harvested during short rain season which shows that the average quantity harvested per each farmer was 572.2457 kg, maximum quantity harvested was 9000 kg and the minimum quantity harvested was 0 kg means that there some harvested areas have no production during short rain season. 4.1.7 Descriptive analysis of harvested acres during short rain season. Table 4. 7 Harvested acres during short rain season. Variable Mean Max Min Harvested acres 1.393103 10 0 Table 4.7 shows average, minimum and maximum number of Harvested acres, average is 1.393103 acres per each farmer and its maximum and minimum is 10 acres and 0 acres respectively means that some of the planted acres are not harvested. 21 4.8 Descriptive analysis of value sold during short rain season. Table 4. 8 Value sold during short rain season. Variable Mean Max Min Quantity harvested 572.2457 9000 0 Table 4.8 it shows Average, minimum and maximum of value sold where by the average is Tsh 572.2457, maximum value sold is Tsh 9000 and minimum value sold is Tsh 0 which means that some quantity are not sold during short rain season. 4.2 Inferential statistics The study used correlation and regression analysis to check the relationship between the dependent variable and independent variable. Correlation check the relationship between dependent variable (beans production) and independent variable (planted acres), and the regression analysis was used to determine the effect of independent variables (value sold, average price and harvested acres) on dependent variable (beans production). Correlation Correlation used for quantifying the association between two variables measured on interval/ratio scale. The study used correlation so as to determine the relationship between harvested acres and beans production, planted acres and beans production, average price and beans production in both long rain season and short rain season as follows; 22 4.2.1 Relationship between quantity harvested and planted acres during Short rain season Table 4. 9 Quantity harvested and planted acres quantity harvested planted acres Pearson correlation (r) 0.538 P-value 0.0000 Hypothesis H0: There is no linear relationship between quantity harvested (beans production) and area planted H1: There is a linear relationship between quantity harvested (beans production) and area planted. Table 4.9 shows that there is significance positive linear relationship between harvested acres and area planted, since the p-value was 0.0000 was less than level of significance (α) = 0.05, from this there is an evidence to reject null hypothesis which states that there is no linear relationship between quantity harvested and harvested acres at 5% level of significance and accept the alternative hypothesis which states that there is linear relationship between quantity harvested and harvested acres. Furthermore, the result shows positive Pearson’s correlation coefficient is (r=0.538). 23 4.2.2 Relationship between quantity harvested (beans production) and planted acres during long rain season Table 4. 10 Quantity harvested and area planted quantity harvested planted acres Pearson correlation (r) 0.6807 P-value 0.0000 Hypothesis H0: There is no linear relationship between quantity harvested and area planted H1: There is linear relationship between quantity harvested and area planted Table 4.10 shows that there is positive relationship between quantity harvested (beans production) and area planted at 5% level of significance since the p-value = 0.0000 was less than level of significance = 0.05, from the condition that reject null hypothesis if p-value is less than level of significance, then null hypothesis rejected which states that there is no linear relationship between quantity harvested and area planted and accept the alternative hypothesis which states that there is linear relationship between quantity harvested and area planted. Furthermore the relationship is strong positive since the Pearson’s correlation coefficient is 0.6807. 24 4.3 Multiple linear regression. Multiple linear regression is a statistical data analysis technique used to determine the extent to which there is a linear relationship between a dependent variable and more than one independent variable. Multiple linear regression test at 5% level of significance, was used to examine the relationship between dependent variable, which was quantity harvested (beans production), and independent variables (value sold, harvested acres and average price). Residual is independent (serial autocorrelation) Autocorrelation assumption shows that the errors between observed and predicted values should be normally distributed, this is basically the same as the observations of the study (or individual data points) to be independent from one another (or uncorrelated). Durbin-Watson test was used to test the null hypothesis that the residuals are not linearly auto-correlated against that the residual are serially correlated. This statistic can vary from 0 to 4 Durbin-Watson statistic showed in Table 4.11 and 4. 12 the value was 1.731 and 1.997 respectively for both short rain season and long rain season. Table 4. 11 Model summary for short rain season Model R R Adjusted Std. Error of Durbin- Square R the Estimate Watson Square 1 0.915 0.837 0.837 155073.82389 1.731 25 Table 4. 12 Model summary for long rain season Model 1 R 0.922 R Adjusted Std. Error of Durbin- Square R Square the Estimate Watson 0.850 0.850 89365.99143 1.997 No Multicollinearity Gujarati (2004), Multiple regression assumes that the independent variables are not highly correlated each other. This assumption is detected by using Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) values. For the assumption to be meet VIF (Variance inflation factor) scores to be well should be below 10, and tolerance scores to be above 0.2. Table 4.13 and Table 4.14 shows analysis of collinearity statistics and show that the assumption has been met, as VIF (Variance inflation factor) scores were below 10. Therefore, the data have no multicollinearity for both short rain season and long rain season. Table 4. 13 Multicollinearity for long rain season Variable VIF Value sold 1.4 Harvested acres 1.39 Average price 1.01 Mean VIF 1.27 26 Table 4. 14 Multicollinearity during short rain season Variable VIF Value sold 1.79 Harvested acres 1.74 Average price 1.05 Mean VIF 1.53 There is no any VIF value which is greater than 10, hence no multicolinearity problem among explanatory variables. Normal distribution of residuals Normality assumption can be tested by looking at the distribution of residuals. Regression assumes the residuals (errors) should be approximately normally distributed. The residuals for short rain season are translated into log normal distribution. The log normal distribution is a continuous probability distribution of a random variable in which logarithm is normally distributed, thus if the random variable has a lognormal distribution, then has normal distribution. Likewise, if has a normal distribution, then has a lognormal distribution, then probability function that describes how the values of a variable are distributed. The study uses Shapiro-wilk to test the normality assumption when the null hypothesis states that the variable is normally distributed, reject null hypothesis if p-value is less than level of significance, since the probability of Shapiro test = 0.27412 for short rain season is greater than level of significance (α= 0.05) hence data are normal distributed and for long rain season the 27 probability of Shapiro test = 0.66 which is greater than level of significance (α= 0.05) hence data are normal distributed. Homoscedasticity (The variance of the residuals is constant) Homoscedasticty assumption shows that the variation in the residuals (or amount of error in the model) is similar at each point across the model. In other words, the spread of the residuals should be fairly constant at each point of the predictor variables or across the linear model. Breusch-Pagan test was used to test heteroskedasticity, where by the null hypothesis is that the variance of the residuals is homogenous or constant means homoscedasticity. Therefore the p-value = 0.1857 and p-value = 0.1557 for long rain season and short rain season respectively were very large then the null hypothesis which states that the variance of the residuals is homogenous was accepted, hence the variance of the residuals are homogenous for both short rain season and long rain season. 4.3.1 Effects of value sold, harvested acres and average price on harvested acres (beans production) during short rain season. 4.3.1.1 Significance of the model This part shows the probability of F test to test whether or not the model has explanatory power and R squared (Coefficient of determination) indicates how much total variation in the dependent variable are explained by the independent variables. The null hypothesis under F test is that the model is not significance while, alternative hypothesis is model is significance. So, reject null hypothesis if p- value < 0.05. Probability of F test = 0.0000 28 Therefore, in this study, gives F test its p-value = 0.0000 that is less than α = 0.05 which means that the model is significance. R-squared = 0.7141 The study shows that there is 71.41% of value sold, harvested acres and average price explains quantity harvested (beans production), while 28.59% is explained by other factors. 4.3.1.2 Table of Coefficients Table 4. 15 Multiple linear regression results Quantity harvested Coefficient P-value Harvested acres 0.412855 0.001 Value sold 1.53E-07 0.421 Average price 1.24E-05 0.968 Constant 5.377838 0.000 Y=ꞵ0+ꞵ1X1+ ꞵ2X2 + ꞵ3X3 Log (quantity of beans harvested) = 5.378+0.413 harvested acres+1.53E-07 value sold+1.24E-05 average price. Hypothesis H0: There is no linear relationship between dependent variable and independent variables H1: There is linear relationship between dependent variable and independent variables 29 Harvested acres Table 4.15 results shows that the p value is quite low (0.001) reject the null hypothesis of no effect of harvested acres on beans production. So there is enough evidence to suggest that there is positive effect of harvested acres on beans production controlling for value sold and average price. Moreover the coefficient is positive meaning that as harvested acres increases also quantity harvested increases. This implies that one acre increase in harvested acres will lead to percentage change in quantity harvested by 41.29% during short rain season while other factors kept constant. Value sold Table 4.15 results shows that the p-value is particularly 0.412855 which is more than 0.05, so there is no enough evidence to reject the null hypothesis of no effect of value sold on quantity harvested. So there is an evidence to suggest that there is no significance effect of value sold on quantity harvested (beans production) at 5% level of significance during short rain season. Average price Table 4.15 results shows that the p-value is particularly 0.968 which is more than 0.05, so there is no enough significance evidence to reject the null hypothesis that, there is no significance effect of average price on quantity harvested. So there is an evidence to suggest that there is no significance effect of average price on quantity of beans harvested (beans production) at 5% level of significance during short rain season. 30 4.3.2 Effects of value sold, harvested acres and average price on harvested acres (beans production) during long rain season. 4.3.2.1 Significance of the model This part shows the probability of F test to test whether or not the model is significance and R squared (Coefficient of determination) indicates how much of the total variation in the dependent variable, can be explained by the independent variables. The null hypothesis under F test is that the model is not significance while, alternative hypothesis is model is significance. So, reject null hypothesis if p-value < 0.05. Probability of F test = 0.0000 Therefore, in this study, gives F test its p-value = 0.0000 that is less than α = 0.05 which means that the model is significance. R-squared = 0.9185 The study shows that there are 91.85% of value sold, harvested acres and average price explains quantity of beans harvested (beans production), while 8.15% is not explained by other factors. 31 4.3.2.2 Table of Coefficients Table 4. 16 Multiple linear regression results. quantity harvested Coefficient p-value harvested acres 116.3489 0.0000 value sold .0009881 0.0000 average price .0124656 0.883 Constant 12.14269 0.906 Hypothesis H0: There is no linear relationship between dependent variable and independent variables H1: There is linear relationship between dependent variable and independent variables Harvested acres Table 4.16 shows that the p value is quite low (0.0000) reject the null hypothesis of no effect of harvested acres on beans production. So there is an evidence to suggest that there is an effect of harvested acres on beans production during long rain season controlling for value sold and average price. More over the coefficient is positive meaning that as harvested acres increases also quantity harvested increases. This implies that one acre increase in harvested acres will increase quantity harvested by 116.3489 kg during long rain season while other factors kept constant. 32 Value sold Table 4.16 shows that the p value is particularly 0.0000 which is less than 0.05, so there is enough statistical evidence to reject the null hypothesis for no effect of value sold on quantity harvested. So there is an evidence to suggest that there is an effect of value sold on beans production during long rain season controlling for harvested acres and average price. More over the coefficient is positive meaning that as value sold Tshs increases also quantity harvested increases. This implies that one Tshs increase in value sold will increase quantity harvested by .0009881 Kg during long rain season while other factors kept constant. Average price Table 4.16 shows that the p value is particularly 0.883 which is more than 0.05, so there is no enough evidence to reject the null hypothesis that, there is no effect of average price on quantity harvested. So there is an evidence to suggest that there is no significance effect of average price on quantity harvested (beans production) at 5% level of significance during long rain season. 33 4.4 Discussion of findings This section presents the discussion of findings for each specific objective that analyzed to determine effects of beans production in Tanzania and the relationship between planted acres and quantity harvested. 4.4.1 Relationship between planted acres and quantity of beans harvested Finding revealed that planted acres had a positive significance relationship with quantity harvested (beans production) in both long rain season and short rain season, furthermore, the relationship was positive statistically significant (P-value = 0.000). This study were similar to the study conducted by (Teferi et al. 2015; Idrisa et al. 2012) found that planted acres were significance positive relationship on improved soybean production but contrary of those Challa and Tilahun (2014) which suggested that were negative significance relationship between planted acres and beans production. 4.4.2 Effects of harvested acres on quantity harvested (beans production). Findings revealed that harvested acres had a positive significantly and positively effect on beans production in both short and long rain season (P-value = 0.0000, p= 0.001) respectively. 4.4.3 Effect of value sold on quantity harvested (beans production) Findings revealed that value sold ha d no statistical significance effect on beans production during short (p-value = 0.421) but had statistical significance effect on beans production during long rain season (p-value = 0.0000). 4.4.4 Effect of average price on quantity harvested (beans production) Findings revealed that average price had no statistical significance effect on bean production during short and long rain season (p value = 0.968 and p- value = 0.883) 34 respectively. These results contrary with Karane, (2016) which suggested that average price in the market had significance effect on the productivity of beans and improving beans production. 35 CHAPTER FIVE CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS 5.0 Introduction This chapter presents the summary, conclusions and recommendations of the research project results and areas for further research. The conclusion is based on the objectives of the study, and the recommendations based on the findings of the study. 5.1 Summary The study intended to account for the determinants of beans production in Tanzania specifically in Kigoma region. The study used cross sectional data on average price, value sold, harvested acres, quantity harvested and planted acres. The data collected were secondary data from the Annual Agricultural Sample Survey (AASS 2014/2015). The study used multiple linear regression to determine the effect of harvested acres, value sold and average price on beans production. The study had four objectives, which were to examine the relationship between planted acres and quantity harvested (beans production), the study revealed that there were positive relationship between planted acres and quantity harvested both short rain season and long rain season, secondly were to examine the effect of harvested acres on quantity harvested (beans production), the study revealed that were positive effect of harvested acres on quantity harvested in both short rain season and long rain season. Third were to examine the effect of value sold on beans production, the results revealed that value sold had no significance effect on beans production in short rain season but had effect during long rain season. Lastly were to examine the effect of average price 36 on beans production, the results revealed that average price had no significance effect on beans production in both short rain season and long rain season. 5.2 Conclusion The first objective was to determine the relationship between planted acres and beans production. The results shows that there were the positive relationship between area planted and quantity harvested (beans production), hence concluding that as planted acres increases also quantity harvested increases and decrease in planted acres also decrease in quantity harvested in both short rain season and long rain season in Kigoma region. The second objective was to examine the effect of harvested acres on beans production. The results shows that harvested acres was significance effect on beans production, hence concluding that harvested acres had an effect on beans production in both short rain season and long rain season in Kigoma region. Third research objective was to determine the effect of value sold and average price on beans production. The results showed that value sold was significance effect during short rain season and insignificance during long rain season on beans production, hence concluding that value sold had no significance effect on beans production in short rain season but had effect during long rain season in Kigoma region. Lastly, the findings reported that average price had no significance effect. Thus, concluding that average price had no significance effect on beans production at Kigoma region both short rain season and long rain season. 37 5.3 Recommendations From the conclusion on the determinants of beans production by harvested acres, value sold and average price made above the following recommendation drawn. 5.3.1 General recommendations Government should formulate price policy for beans product and set price to encourage farmers to produce more beans. Government should employ various measures to maintain farm price and income above what market would, include tariffs or import quotas, export subsidies, direct payments to farmers and limitations on production. 5.3.2 Recommendations for further studies This study considered only three variables that influence beans production in Kigoma region but there are many other relevant factors or variables that could influence beans production such as cost of inputs, effect of climatic change (rainfall, temperature) and social-economic factors. Further studies may be carried out to determine the effects of climatic change on beans production. This study did not focus on the determinants of beans productivity and efficiency among stallholder farmers, it may also be important for future research to examine the determinants of beans productivity and efficiency. The study employed secondary data of 2014/2015 Annual Agricultural Sample Survey (AASS) but similar study could be undertaken by using the similar determinants but different data such as from Household Budget Survey and Agriculture Census. 38 REFERENCES Bucheyeki, T. L. and Mmbaga, T. E. (2013). On-farm evaluation of beans varieties for adaptation and adoption in Kigoma region in Tanzania. ISRN Agronomy, 2013. 5pp. Challa, M. and Tilahun, U. (2014). Determinants and impacts of modern agricultural technology adoption in west Wollega: the case of Gulliso district. Journal of Biology, Agriculture and Healthcare, 4(20): 63-77. CIAT (International Centre for Tropical Agriculture) 2010. Bean seed production in East Africa, Annual report: Cali: CIAT. Debertin, D. L. (2012). Agricultural Production Economics. Macmillan Publishing Company, a division Macmillan Inc, Upper Saddle River, N.J, USA.427pp. FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations) (2010). 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Vol.7, No.22, 2016. 41 LIST OF APPENDICES Appendix: Data used Long rain season Data Planted Harvest Quantity Value Average acres ed acres harvested sold price 3 3 400 255000 850 1 1 500 160000 800 1.5 1.5 900 712500 950 1 1 200 0 0.5 0.5 120 48000 0.5 0.5 300 0 1 1 200 0 0.5 0.5 60 0 1 1 300 1500 1500 2 2 200 120000 1200 0.5 0.5 100 0 1 1 120 32000 800 0.75 0.75 15 22500 1500 2 2 300 0 1 1 360 192000 800 0.5 0.5 80 80000 1000 1 1 100 0 800 42 1.25 1.25 720 480000 1000 1 1 120 120000 1000 1 1 300 160000 800 2 2 2000 1800000 1200 0.25 0.25 400 360000 1200 2 2 1248 988000 1000 1 1 180 12000 120 3 3 1000 800000 1000 2 2 360 240000 1000 0.5 0.5 300 240000 1200 1 1 400 3400 1700 2 2 100 96000 1200 1 1 200 120000 1200 3 3 400 0 1 1 100 0 1 1 480 144000 1200 0.5 0.5 100 40000 1000 2 2 800 540000 900 1.5 1.5 300 0 3 3 1560 1440000 0.25 0.25 60 0 1.5 1.5 810 500000 0.5 0.5 100 0 1000 1000 43 1 1 480 360000 1000 1 1 100 1280 1600 0.5 0.5 80 0 0.5 0.5 40 0 2 2 100 0 0.5 0.5 100 0 2 1.5 1300 0 0.5 0.5 40 0 1 1 200 0 1 1 100 0 2 2 300 3600 0.25 0.25 100 0 0.5 0.5 200 240000 1200 2 2 800 270000 900 1.5 1.5 1395 775000 1000 7 7 2000 1000000 1000 0.5 0.5 100 0 1 1 200 0 2 2 700 450000 0.5 0.5 600 0 0.5 0.5 100 72000 1200 1.5 1.5 420 210000 1000 0.5 0.5 80 0 1800 1500 44 1 0 0 0 1 1 100 0 1 1 100 0 Short rain season Data Planted Harvested Quantity Value sold Average acres acres harvested price 0.5 0.5 700 7200 1 1 100 0 0.5 0.5 100 60000 600 1 1 520 223600 860 0.25 0.25 60 0 0.5 0.5 100 105000 1 1 200 0 0.5 0.5 40 0 3 3 1300 10800 1200 2 2 400 740000 1850 4 4 240 400000 2000 1.5 1.5 160 0 2 2 200 0 0.25 0.25 200 0 0.5 0.5 40 0 1800 1500 45 0.5 0 0 0 1 1 300 0 3 3 1500 5000 500 0.5 0.5 200 120000 1200 0.5 0.5 300 0 2 2 7000 20000 2000 3 3 1500 10000 2000 0.5 0.5 200 0 1 1 60 0 1 1 100 140000 2000 1 1 360 288000 1200 1.5 1.5 900 6000 1200 1 1 300 0 0.5 0.5 3.5 0 1 1 100 0 0.5 0.5 120 0 1 1 200 225000 1.5 1.5 100 0 1 1 200 0 3 3 200 0 0.25 0.25 100 0 1.5 1.5 100 80000 1.5 1.5 60 0 1500 1600 46 1.25 1 360 240000 1000 1 1 40 0 1 1 120 40000 1000 3 3 180 96000 1200 0.5 0.5 120 132000 1100 1.5 1.5 100 0 1.5 0.5 80 0 1 1 100 0 0.5 0.5 300 0 2 2 3750 3325000 950 4 4 1700 21600 1800 2.5 2.5 100 0 0.5 0.5 300 160000 800 0.25 0.25 300 240000 1200 2 0 0 0 3 3 600 400000 1000 10 10 9000 6000000 1000 2 2 200 1800 1200 1 1 90 90000 2000 1.5 1.5 2970 224000 800 0.5 0.5 300 250000 1000 2 2 1404 1684800 1200 1 1 60 0 47 0.5 0.5 20 0 2 0 0 0 7 7 100 0 0.5 0.5 60 0 1 1 200 150000 0.5 0.5 40 0 2.5 2.5 1000 1000000 10 10 200 0 0.5 0 0 0 1 1 200 300000 0.5 0.5 400 0 1 1 360 432000 1200 1.5 1.5 260 54000 900 0.5 0.5 60 0 1 1 300 0 0.75 0.75 100 0 3 3 1320 960000 0.25 0.25 80 0 1 1 200 120000 1200 2 2 1200 1200000 1500 1.5 1.5 480 240000 1000 4 4 6000 75000 2500 1 1 240 100000 1000 1500 1000 2000 1000 48 0.5 0.5 40 0 1 1 400 0 0.5 0.5 300 0 0.5 0.5 100 0 2 2 800 1000000 1.5 1.5 100 0 0.5 0.5 40 0 5 5 5000 360000 0.5 0.5 80 0 0.5 0.5 200 2500 0.5 0.5 200 0 3.35 3.35 328 0 0.5 0.5 80 0 3 3 600 360000 0.5 0 0 0 0.5 0.5 60 0 0.5 0.5 100 0 3 2.5 500 360000 1200 1 1 800 300000 1500 0.25 0.25 20 0 1 1 200 0 1 1 200 0 1 1 200 0 2000 1200 2500 1200 49 1.5 0 0 0 2 2 700 0 0.5 0.5 66 0 1 1 1000 1020000 1 1 240 0 1 1 600 0 0.5 0.5 120 0 0.25 0.25 9 0 0.25 0.25 40 0 1200 50
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