Middle East and North Africa Intelligence Briefings Weekly Briefing: July 3rd At The Open Source Briefing, we remain committed to providing the public with ongoing developments around the globe. Iran, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Iraq Author: Takshak Pai Iran We begin this section of the briefing with the latest on the diplomatic tussle between the United States and Iran, following the former’s military action in Syria and Iraq last week. On Tuesday, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, the U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, claimed that the airstrikes on militia groups in Syria and Iraq last weekend were to deter Iran from conducting or supporting further attacks on U.S. personnel or facilities.[1] Iran has since denied any involvement in orchestrating such attacks. Iran’s UN envoy, Majid Takht Ravanchi, said that the U.S. claim “has no factual or legal ground”. [2][3] While these developments are being viewed in the context of a potential resolution on the JCPOA deal, the official view from Iran is that talks could stretch well into the term of the next administration led by Ebrahim Raisi. An Iranian government spokesperson confirmed that their position had been made “absolutely clear” to all parties, and that the onus now lies on the other countries involved, namely the U.S., United Kingdom, France, Germany, China, and Russia.[4] Six rounds of negotiations have taken place so far. It is worth noting that the incoming Iranian president has made clear that he will continue the current administration’s stance of pursuing these talks. [5] The Open Source Briefing 1 This image shows the damage present on a building of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization on July 1. Courtesy of @TheIntelLab on Twitter. [7] Lastly, on Saturday, Lebanon’s Al-Mayadeen TV reported that an Israeli cargo ship was “hit by an unknown weapon” while moving towards the Emirati coast. At the time of writing, details on the supposed attack are still unclear, and no claim of responsibility has been issued. Al-Mayadeen also insinuated that the attack was possibly a response to an alleged Israeli drone attack on Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization (AEOI) on June 24th.[6] Earlier in the day, images released by The Intel Lab showed that damage to at least one AEOI building was still prevalent on July 1. [7] The Open Source Briefing 2 Syria The U.S.’ airstrikes were conducted in the vicinity of the Al Bukamal area on the Syrian side of the Iraq-Syria border, which reportedly houses multiple units of Shiite militias. Courtesy of @evacool_ on Twitter. [9] Last weekend, the United States conducted airstrikes on targets along the Iraq-Syria border. On the Syrian side, these airstrikes took place in the vicinity of Al Bukamal, an area in the Deir Ezzor province in the Syrian countryside, which reportedly houses multiple units of Shiite militias, including those belonging to the Popular Mobilization Front (PMF).[8] The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights put the death toll at 5 killed, while the PMF claimed that 4 of its fighters were killed.[9] Syrian state media, however, reported that the strikes caused the death of a child and injured 3 others.[10] Videos released by the Pentagon showed strikes carried out by F-15E aircrafts on buildings in As-Sisak and Al-Hury. [11] The day after the strikes, local media reports indicated an exchange of fire between militia groups and U.S.-led coalition forces in Eastern Syria. Initially, it is claimed that Iranian-backed militia groups fired 8 rockets towards a U.S. base at the The Open Source Briefing 3 Al-Omar Oil Field in Deir Ezzor, following which U.S. forces retaliated. No casualties were reported on either side.[12] Iraq The U.S. airstrike reportedly focused on a position manned by Kataib Hezbollah/Kataib Sayyid al-Shuhada on the Iraqi side of the Iraq-Syria border. Courtesy of @obretix on Twitter. [13] Last weekend’s strikes on militant positions on the Iraq-Syria border, at least one U.S.-led airstrike was carried out on the Iraqi side, reportedly on a position manned by the Kataib Hezbollah/Kataib Sayyid al-Shuhada groups.[13] These groups are part of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) paramilitary organization of Iraq. The PMF subsequently released a statement confirming strikes on its 14th Brigade, while Kataib The Open Source Briefing 4 Sayyid al-Shuhada declared “open war” against U.S. forces in a separate statement released following the attacks. [14] The airstrikes also drew condemnation from the Iraqi government. A spokesperson for Iraq’s Ministry of Defence released a statement highlighting the “blatant and unacceptable violation of Iraqi sovereignty and Iraqi national security”.[15] For its part, however, the PMF is said to be divided in its response to U.S. actions going forward. A report in Asharq al-Awsat claimed that PMF factions were now divided into two camps- one with a hawkish “quick and strong strike” mentality, and the other with a more restrained approach.[16] Israel, Palestine, Afghanistan, and North Africa Author: William Wright Israel U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken (left) meets with Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid (right) in Rome. Photo Courtesy of Andrew Harnik/Reuters [1] Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid met this week with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken in Rome. [2] The meeting between the two was largely viewed as a The Open Source Briefing 5 reset from former U.S. President Trump and former Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. Blinken noted that mistakes were made in the past few years, explaining that “Israel’s bipartisan standing was hurt” and that “[w]e will fix those mistakes together.” [2] While Israel still is concerned about any future negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, Lapid made clear that the U.S. and Israel would work together “through direct and professional conversations, not in press conferences.” [1] Both Blinken and Lapid emphasized the importance of the partnership between their two countries. [3] Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid (left) meets with United Arab Emirates' Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed al-Nahyan in Abu Dhabi. Photo Courtesy of WAM/Reuters [4] Lapid then traveled to the United Arab Emirates (UAE), marking the first visit by an Israeli diplomat to the country. Lapid arrived for the opening of an embassy in Abu Dhabi and a consulate in Dubai. [4] The UAE normalized diplomatic relations last August as part of the Abraham Accords. The two also announced a signing of a new economic agreement. [4] The Open Source Briefing 6 Click here to read our recent research article on the Abraham Accords “Iranian Interference in the Arab-Israeli Peace Process.” Update: Reports indicate an Israeli ship was attacked en route to the UAE on July 3rd. No injuries were reported and it remains unclear what weapons were used and who was responsible. [14] Palestine Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in a press conference. Photo Courtesy of Aziz Taher/Reuters/Al Jazeera [5] Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh traveled to Lebanon to meet with Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. Haniyeh also met with Lebanese President Michel Aoun and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri. Hamas and Hezbollah both receive funding and support from Iran. Following the meeting, Haniyeh explained that “Jerusalem remains the focus of the conflict with the occupation and the resistance is the strategic choice for liberation.” [5] The Open Source Briefing 7 Afghanistan Displaced families in Kunduz, Afghanistan. Photo Courtesy of AFP/Al Jazeera [6] As Afghan President Ashraf Ghani met with U.S. President Biden last week, over 5,000 families fled from the city of Kunduz in Afghanistan amid ongoing fighting between the Taliban and the Afghan National Army (ANA). [6] Biden has ordered the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan by September 11th, 2021; however, reports emerged that the U.S. is just days away from a full withdrawal, not including forces staying to protect the U.S. Embassy and the Kabul International Airport. [7] U.S. forces have also left Bagram Airfield, the first major military base established by the U.S. nearly 20 years ago at the start of Operation Enduring Freedom in 2001. [8] Despite the U.S. troop withdrawal, Biden has reassured Ghani of U.S. support and has asked Congress to approve $3.3 billion in security assistance for Afghanistan and announced the U.S. will send 3 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines. [9] The Open Source Briefing 8 U.S. General Austin Miller, the commander of NATO’s Afghanistan operations, has warned of the worsening security situation and is concerned about a possible full-scale civil war. [10] Civilians have begun to form armed militias to support the ANA against the Taliban with one member stating “If they [the Taliban] impose war on us, oppress us and encroach on women and people's property, even our seven-year-old children will be armed and will stand against them…We have to protect our country.” [11] North Africa The Libyan flag. Photo Courtesy of Costas Baltas/Reuters/US News [12] Libyan officials met in Geneva, Switzerland to hold talks overseen by the United Nations for upcoming elections. [12] Elections are currently set for December 24th, 2021. Morocco's Minister of Foreign Affairs, Nasser Bourita, has expressed support for the elections. [13] The Open Source Briefing 9 Iran, Syria, and Iraq [1] Nichols, Michelle. “U.S. Tells U.N. that Weekend Airstrikes Aimed to Deter Iran.” Yahoo News, 30 June 2021, https://www.yahoo.com/news/u-tells-u-n-weekend-012906689.html [2] “Iran Dismisses U.S. Accusation of Involvement in Iraq, Syria Attacks.” Tasnim News Agency, 3 July 2021, https://www.tasnimnews.com/en/news/2021/07/03/2531837/iran-dismisses-us-accusatio n-of-involvement-in-iraq-syria-attacks [3] “Iran Denies Links to Attacks on U.S. Forces in Iraq, Syria.” Reuters, 3 July 2021, https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-denies-links-attacks-us-forces-iraq-syria -2021-07-03/ [4] “Iran Says Awaiting U.S. Decision on Revived Nuclear Deal.” Al Monitor, 29 June 2021, https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2021/06/iran-says-awaiting-us-decision-revived-nu clear-deal [5] Parasiliti, Andrew, Hagedorn, Elizabeth, and Snell, Joe. “The Takeaway: Raisi Likely Can’t Resist Economic Benefits of Iran Nuclear Deal.” Al Monitor, 23 June 2021, https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2021/06/takeaway-raisi-likely-cant-resist-economicbenefits-iran-nuclear-deal [6] “Israeli Cargo Ship Comes Under Fire in the Northern Indian Ocean.” Al-Mayadeen, 3 July 2021. https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/1492195/sources-for-almayadeen:-israeli-c argo-ship-comes-under-fire [7] https://twitter.com/TheIntelLab/status/1411199249182859265 [8] Sirwan, Dilan. “U.S. Airstrikes on Iran-backed Militias Kill Atleast 4 on Iraq-Syria Border.” Rudaw, 28 June 2021. https://www.rudaw.net/english/middleeast/28062021 [9] https://twitter.com/evacool_/status/1409288677503680513 The Open Source Briefing 10 [10] “Aerial Aggression Believed to be American on Border Area with Iraq in Deir Ezzor Countryside.” SANA, 28 June 2021, https://sana.sy/en/?p=239498 [11] https://twitter.com/ELINTNews/status/1409499784583450628 [12] “U.S. Forces in Syria Attacked After Air Raids on Armed Groups.” Al Jazeera English, 28 June 2021, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/6/28/us-defends-strikes-in-iraq-syria-and-armedgroups-vow-revenge [13] https://twitter.com/obretix/status/1409417264177332226 [14] Sirwan, Dilan. “U.S. Airstrikes on Iran-backed Militias Kill Atleast 4 on Iraq-Syria Border.” Rudaw, 28 June 2021. https://www.rudaw.net/english/middleeast/28062021 [15] https://twitter.com/IraqiSpoxMOD/status/1409440297390686210 [16] “Iraq: ‘Iranian Factions’ Divided Over Response to U.S. Strikes.” Asharq al-Awsat, 3 July 2021, https://english.aawsat.com/home/article/3060251/iraq-iranian-factions-divided-over-resp onse-us-strikes Israel, Palestine, Afghanistan, and North Africa [1] Pamuk, Humeyra. “Israel Tells U.S. It Has Serious Reservations about Iran Nuclear Deal.” Reuters, Thomson Reuters, 27 June 2021, www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/meeting-with-us-israel-expresses-serious-reservati ons-iran-nuclear-deal-2021-06-27/. [2] Kellman, Laurie, et al. “Blinken, Lapid Meet in Rome amid Reset US-Israel Relations.” AP NEWS, Associated Press, 28 June 2021, apnews.com/article/joe-biden-europe-rome-israel-middle-east-ae850ef6fc154a5e38bf21 11bf5c5a40. The Open Source Briefing 11 [3] Welle, Deutsche. “Israel Looks to Fix 'Mistakes' of Past with US as Lapid Meets Blinken: DW: 27.06.2021.” DW.COM, www.dw.com/en/israel-looks-to-fix-mistakes-of-past-with-us-as-lapid-meets-blinken/a-58 068167. [4] Barrington, Lisa. “Inaugurating Embassy in UAE, Israel Tells Region: 'We're Here to Stay'.” Reuters, Thomson Reuters, 29 June 2021, www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-foreign-minister-heads-uae-first-official-visit-2 021-06-29/. [5] “Hezbollah Leader, Hamas Chief Discuss Recent Gaza Fighting.” Gaza News | Al Jazeera, Al Jazeera, 29 June 2021, www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/6/29/hezbollah-leader-hamas-chief-talk-recent-gaza-ass ault-in-beirut. [6] “Thousands Flee Kunduz as Fighting Rages between Gov't, Taliban.” Asia News | Al Jazeera, Al Jazeera, 27 June 2021, www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/6/27/thousands-displaced-as-government-taliban-fight-n ear-afghan-city. [7] Ali, Idrees, and Phil Stewart. “U.S. Military Days Away from Completing Afghan Withdrawal - Sources.” Reuters, Thomson Reuters, 29 June 2021, www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/us-military-days-away-completing-afghan-withdrawa l-sources-2021-06-29/. [8] Burns, Robert, and Kathy Gannon. “US Vacates Key Afghan Base; Pullout Target Now 'Late August'.” AP NEWS, Associated Press, 3 July 2021, apnews.com/article/taliban-afghanistan-f6da97f3bde5b50b6d029185c9eb385d. [9] “Biden Meets Afghan Leaders, Promises US Support despite Troop Withdrawal.” France 24, France 24, 25 June 2021, www.france24.com/en/americas/20210625-biden-meets-afghan-leaders-promises-us-su pport-despite-troop-withdrawal. [10] “Top US General Says Security in Afghanistan Deteriorating.” Abdullah Abdullah News | Al Jazeera, Al Jazeera, 29 June 2021, The Open Source Briefing 12 www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/6/29/top-us-general-says-security-in-afghanistan-deterio rating. [11] “Afghan Civilians Take up Arms as U.S.-Led Forces Leave.” Reuters, Thomson Reuters, 30 June 2021, www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/afghan-civilians-take-up-arms-us-led-forces-leave-2 021-06-30/. [12] “Libya Talks in Geneva Aim to Pave Way for December Polls | World News | US News.” U.S. News & World Report, U.S. News & World Report, 2021, www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2021-06-28/libya-talks-seek-to-pave-way-for-dec ember-elections. [13] Baroud, Ramzy, et al. “Morocco: Foreign Minister Expresses Support for Libyan Election.” Middle East Monitor, 28 June 2021, www.middleeastmonitor.com/20210628-morocco-foreign-minister-expresses-support-for -libyan-election/. [14] “Israeli Officials Say Cargo Ship Possibly Attacked En Route to UAE- Israeli Media.” Reuters, Thomson Reuters, 3 July 2021, www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-officials-say-cargo-ship-possibly-attacked-en -route-uae-israeli-n12-news-2021-07-03/. The Open Source Briefing 13