Middle East and North Africa
Intelligence Briefings
Weekly Briefing: July 3rd
At The Open Source Briefing, we remain committed to providing the public with ongoing
developments around the globe.
Iran, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Iraq
Author: Takshak Pai
Iran
We begin this section of the briefing with the latest on the diplomatic tussle
between the United States and Iran, following the former’s military action in Syria and
Iraq last week. On Tuesday, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, the U.S. Ambassador to the
United Nations, claimed that the airstrikes on militia groups in Syria and Iraq last
weekend were to deter Iran from conducting or supporting further attacks on U.S.
personnel or facilities.[1] Iran has since denied any involvement in orchestrating such
attacks. Iran’s UN envoy, Majid Takht Ravanchi, said that the U.S. claim “has no factual
or legal ground”. [2][3]
While these developments are being viewed in the context of a potential
resolution on the JCPOA deal, the official view from Iran is that talks could stretch well
into the term of the next administration led by Ebrahim Raisi. An Iranian government
spokesperson confirmed that their position had been made “absolutely clear” to all
parties, and that the onus now lies on the other countries involved, namely the U.S.,
United Kingdom, France, Germany, China, and Russia.[4] Six rounds of negotiations
have taken place so far. It is worth noting that the incoming Iranian president has made
clear that he will continue the current administration’s stance of pursuing these talks. [5]
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This image shows the damage present on a building of Iran’s Atomic Energy
Organization on July 1. Courtesy of @TheIntelLab on Twitter. [7]
Lastly, on Saturday, Lebanon’s Al-Mayadeen TV reported that an Israeli cargo
ship was “hit by an unknown weapon” while moving towards the Emirati coast. At the
time of writing, details on the supposed attack are still unclear, and no claim of
responsibility has been issued. Al-Mayadeen also insinuated that the attack was
possibly a response to an alleged Israeli drone attack on Iran’s Atomic Energy
Organization (AEOI) on June 24th.[6] Earlier in the day, images released by The Intel
Lab showed that damage to at least one AEOI building was still prevalent on July 1. [7]
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Syria
The U.S.’ airstrikes were conducted in the vicinity of the Al Bukamal area on the Syrian
side of the Iraq-Syria border, which reportedly houses multiple units of Shiite militias.
Courtesy of @evacool_ on Twitter. [9]
Last weekend, the United States conducted airstrikes on targets along the
Iraq-Syria border. On the Syrian side, these airstrikes took place in the vicinity of Al
Bukamal, an area in the Deir Ezzor province in the Syrian countryside, which reportedly
houses multiple units of Shiite militias, including those belonging to the Popular
Mobilization Front (PMF).[8] The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights put the death toll
at 5 killed, while the PMF claimed that 4 of its fighters were killed.[9] Syrian state media,
however, reported that the strikes caused the death of a child and injured 3 others.[10]
Videos released by the Pentagon showed strikes carried out by F-15E aircrafts on
buildings in As-Sisak and Al-Hury. [11]
The day after the strikes, local media reports indicated an exchange of fire
between militia groups and U.S.-led coalition forces in Eastern Syria. Initially, it is
claimed that Iranian-backed militia groups fired 8 rockets towards a U.S. base at the
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Al-Omar Oil Field in Deir Ezzor, following which U.S. forces retaliated. No casualties
were reported on either side.[12]
Iraq
The U.S. airstrike reportedly focused on a position manned by Kataib Hezbollah/Kataib
Sayyid al-Shuhada on the Iraqi side of the Iraq-Syria border. Courtesy of @obretix on
Twitter. [13]
Last weekend’s strikes on militant positions on the Iraq-Syria border, at least one
U.S.-led airstrike was carried out on the Iraqi side, reportedly on a position manned by
the Kataib Hezbollah/Kataib Sayyid al-Shuhada groups.[13] These groups are part of
the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) paramilitary organization of Iraq. The PMF
subsequently released a statement confirming strikes on its 14th Brigade, while Kataib
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Sayyid al-Shuhada declared “open war” against U.S. forces in a separate statement
released following the attacks. [14]
The airstrikes also drew condemnation from the Iraqi government. A
spokesperson for Iraq’s Ministry of Defence released a statement highlighting the
“blatant and unacceptable violation of Iraqi sovereignty and Iraqi national security”.[15]
For its part, however, the PMF is said to be divided in its response to U.S. actions going
forward. A report in Asharq al-Awsat claimed that PMF factions were now divided into
two camps- one with a hawkish “quick and strong strike” mentality, and the other with a
more restrained approach.[16]
Israel, Palestine, Afghanistan, and North Africa
Author: William Wright
Israel
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken (left) meets with Israeli Foreign Minister Yair
Lapid (right) in Rome. Photo Courtesy of Andrew Harnik/Reuters [1]
Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid met this week with U.S. Secretary of State
Antony Blinken in Rome. [2] The meeting between the two was largely viewed as a
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reset from former U.S. President Trump and former Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu.
Blinken noted that mistakes were made in the past few years, explaining that “Israel’s
bipartisan standing was hurt” and that “[w]e will fix those mistakes together.” [2]
While Israel still is concerned about any future negotiations between the U.S. and
Iran, Lapid made clear that the U.S. and Israel would work together “through direct and
professional conversations, not in press conferences.” [1] Both Blinken and Lapid
emphasized the importance of the partnership between their two countries. [3]
Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid (left) meets with United Arab Emirates' Foreign
Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed al-Nahyan in Abu Dhabi. Photo Courtesy of
WAM/Reuters [4]
Lapid then traveled to the United Arab Emirates (UAE), marking the first visit by
an Israeli diplomat to the country. Lapid arrived for the opening of an embassy in Abu
Dhabi and a consulate in Dubai. [4] The UAE normalized diplomatic relations last
August as part of the Abraham Accords. The two also announced a signing of a new
economic agreement. [4]
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Click here to read our recent research article on the Abraham Accords “Iranian
Interference in the Arab-Israeli Peace Process.”
Update: Reports indicate an Israeli ship was attacked en route to the UAE on July 3rd.
No injuries were reported and it remains unclear what weapons were used and who was
responsible. [14]
Palestine
Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in a press conference. Photo Courtesy of Aziz
Taher/Reuters/Al Jazeera [5]
Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh traveled to Lebanon to meet with Hezbollah leader
Hassan Nasrallah. Haniyeh also met with Lebanese President Michel Aoun and
Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri. Hamas and Hezbollah both receive funding and
support from Iran. Following the meeting, Haniyeh explained that “Jerusalem remains
the focus of the conflict with the occupation and the resistance is the strategic choice for
liberation.” [5]
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Afghanistan
Displaced families in Kunduz, Afghanistan. Photo Courtesy of AFP/Al Jazeera [6]
As Afghan President Ashraf Ghani met with U.S. President Biden last week, over
5,000 families fled from the city of Kunduz in Afghanistan amid ongoing fighting
between the Taliban and the Afghan National Army (ANA). [6]
Biden has ordered the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan by September
11th, 2021; however, reports emerged that the U.S. is just days away from a full
withdrawal, not including forces staying to protect the U.S. Embassy and the Kabul
International Airport. [7] U.S. forces have also left Bagram Airfield, the first major military
base established by the U.S. nearly 20 years ago at the start of Operation Enduring
Freedom in 2001. [8]
Despite the U.S. troop withdrawal, Biden has reassured Ghani of U.S. support
and has asked Congress to approve $3.3 billion in security assistance for Afghanistan
and announced the U.S. will send 3 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines. [9]
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U.S. General Austin Miller, the commander of NATO’s Afghanistan operations,
has warned of the worsening security situation and is concerned about a possible
full-scale civil war. [10] Civilians have begun to form armed militias to support the ANA
against the Taliban with one member stating “If they [the Taliban] impose war on us,
oppress us and encroach on women and people's property, even our seven-year-old
children will be armed and will stand against them…We have to protect our country.”
[11]
North Africa
The Libyan flag. Photo Courtesy of Costas Baltas/Reuters/US News [12]
Libyan officials met in Geneva, Switzerland to hold talks overseen by the United
Nations for upcoming elections. [12] Elections are currently set for December 24th,
2021. Morocco's Minister of Foreign Affairs, Nasser Bourita, has expressed support for
the elections. [13]
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Iran, Syria, and Iraq
[1] Nichols, Michelle. “U.S. Tells U.N. that Weekend Airstrikes Aimed to Deter Iran.”
Yahoo News, 30 June 2021,
https://www.yahoo.com/news/u-tells-u-n-weekend-012906689.html
[2] “Iran Dismisses U.S. Accusation of Involvement in Iraq, Syria Attacks.” Tasnim News
Agency, 3 July 2021,
https://www.tasnimnews.com/en/news/2021/07/03/2531837/iran-dismisses-us-accusatio
n-of-involvement-in-iraq-syria-attacks
[3] “Iran Denies Links to Attacks on U.S. Forces in Iraq, Syria.” Reuters, 3 July 2021,
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-denies-links-attacks-us-forces-iraq-syria
-2021-07-03/
[4] “Iran Says Awaiting U.S. Decision on Revived Nuclear Deal.” Al Monitor, 29 June
2021,
https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2021/06/iran-says-awaiting-us-decision-revived-nu
clear-deal
[5] Parasiliti, Andrew, Hagedorn, Elizabeth, and Snell, Joe. “The Takeaway: Raisi Likely
Can’t Resist Economic Benefits of Iran Nuclear Deal.” Al Monitor, 23 June 2021,
https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2021/06/takeaway-raisi-likely-cant-resist-economicbenefits-iran-nuclear-deal
[6] “Israeli Cargo Ship Comes Under Fire in the Northern Indian Ocean.” Al-Mayadeen,
3 July 2021.
https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/1492195/sources-for-almayadeen:-israeli-c
argo-ship-comes-under-fire
[7] https://twitter.com/TheIntelLab/status/1411199249182859265
[8] Sirwan, Dilan. “U.S. Airstrikes on Iran-backed Militias Kill Atleast 4 on Iraq-Syria
Border.” Rudaw, 28 June 2021.
https://www.rudaw.net/english/middleeast/28062021
[9] https://twitter.com/evacool_/status/1409288677503680513
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[10] “Aerial Aggression Believed to be American on Border Area with Iraq in Deir Ezzor
Countryside.” SANA, 28 June 2021,
https://sana.sy/en/?p=239498
[11] https://twitter.com/ELINTNews/status/1409499784583450628
[12] “U.S. Forces in Syria Attacked After Air Raids on Armed Groups.” Al Jazeera
English, 28 June 2021,
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/6/28/us-defends-strikes-in-iraq-syria-and-armedgroups-vow-revenge
[13] https://twitter.com/obretix/status/1409417264177332226
[14] Sirwan, Dilan. “U.S. Airstrikes on Iran-backed Militias Kill Atleast 4 on Iraq-Syria
Border.” Rudaw, 28 June 2021.
https://www.rudaw.net/english/middleeast/28062021
[15] https://twitter.com/IraqiSpoxMOD/status/1409440297390686210
[16] “Iraq: ‘Iranian Factions’ Divided Over Response to U.S. Strikes.” Asharq al-Awsat, 3
July 2021,
https://english.aawsat.com/home/article/3060251/iraq-iranian-factions-divided-over-resp
onse-us-strikes
Israel, Palestine, Afghanistan, and North Africa
[1] Pamuk, Humeyra. “Israel Tells U.S. It Has Serious Reservations about Iran Nuclear
Deal.” Reuters, Thomson Reuters, 27 June 2021,
www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/meeting-with-us-israel-expresses-serious-reservati
ons-iran-nuclear-deal-2021-06-27/.
[2] Kellman, Laurie, et al. “Blinken, Lapid Meet in Rome amid Reset US-Israel
Relations.” AP NEWS, Associated Press, 28 June 2021,
apnews.com/article/joe-biden-europe-rome-israel-middle-east-ae850ef6fc154a5e38bf21
11bf5c5a40.
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[3] Welle, Deutsche. “Israel Looks to Fix 'Mistakes' of Past with US as Lapid Meets
Blinken: DW: 27.06.2021.” DW.COM,
www.dw.com/en/israel-looks-to-fix-mistakes-of-past-with-us-as-lapid-meets-blinken/a-58
068167.
[4] Barrington, Lisa. “Inaugurating Embassy in UAE, Israel Tells Region: 'We're Here to
Stay'.” Reuters, Thomson Reuters, 29 June 2021,
www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-foreign-minister-heads-uae-first-official-visit-2
021-06-29/.
[5] “Hezbollah Leader, Hamas Chief Discuss Recent Gaza Fighting.” Gaza News | Al
Jazeera, Al Jazeera, 29 June 2021,
www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/6/29/hezbollah-leader-hamas-chief-talk-recent-gaza-ass
ault-in-beirut.
[6] “Thousands Flee Kunduz as Fighting Rages between Gov't, Taliban.” Asia News | Al
Jazeera, Al Jazeera, 27 June 2021,
www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/6/27/thousands-displaced-as-government-taliban-fight-n
ear-afghan-city.
[7] Ali, Idrees, and Phil Stewart. “U.S. Military Days Away from Completing Afghan
Withdrawal - Sources.” Reuters, Thomson Reuters, 29 June 2021,
www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/us-military-days-away-completing-afghan-withdrawa
l-sources-2021-06-29/.
[8] Burns, Robert, and Kathy Gannon. “US Vacates Key Afghan Base; Pullout Target
Now 'Late August'.” AP NEWS, Associated Press, 3 July 2021,
apnews.com/article/taliban-afghanistan-f6da97f3bde5b50b6d029185c9eb385d.
[9] “Biden Meets Afghan Leaders, Promises US Support despite Troop Withdrawal.”
France 24, France 24, 25 June 2021,
www.france24.com/en/americas/20210625-biden-meets-afghan-leaders-promises-us-su
pport-despite-troop-withdrawal.
[10] “Top US General Says Security in Afghanistan Deteriorating.” Abdullah Abdullah
News | Al Jazeera, Al Jazeera, 29 June 2021,
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www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/6/29/top-us-general-says-security-in-afghanistan-deterio
rating.
[11] “Afghan Civilians Take up Arms as U.S.-Led Forces Leave.” Reuters, Thomson
Reuters, 30 June 2021,
www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/afghan-civilians-take-up-arms-us-led-forces-leave-2
021-06-30/.
[12] “Libya Talks in Geneva Aim to Pave Way for December Polls | World News | US
News.” U.S. News & World Report, U.S. News & World Report, 2021,
www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2021-06-28/libya-talks-seek-to-pave-way-for-dec
ember-elections.
[13] Baroud, Ramzy, et al. “Morocco: Foreign Minister Expresses Support for Libyan
Election.” Middle East Monitor, 28 June 2021,
www.middleeastmonitor.com/20210628-morocco-foreign-minister-expresses-support-for
-libyan-election/.
[14] “Israeli Officials Say Cargo Ship Possibly Attacked En Route to UAE- Israeli Media.”
Reuters, Thomson Reuters, 3 July 2021,
www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-officials-say-cargo-ship-possibly-attacked-en
-route-uae-israeli-n12-news-2021-07-03/.
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