Brexit: Ramifications on the UK and the EU
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I. INTRODUCTION
31st December, 2020 was officially the last
day of the transition period that allowed the United
Kingdom (UK) to make their exit from the European
Union (EU). The end of this transition period which
was a rather lengthy procedure was overseen by two
Prime Ministers and was also bogged with many
extensions and delays, which split the UK (Shannon
Schumacher, 2019). The process of making an exit
from the EU was not an easy process and was quite
intricate.
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The erstwhile Prime Minister of the UK –
Theresa May, subsequent to the will of the voters’,
processed the notification for withdrawal as under
Article 50 to the EU on 29th March, 2017. An
agreement for withdrawal was deliberated with the
EU which presented their new terms of association.
However, since the Parliament was divided, she
failed to acquire an approval (Nigel Walker, 2021).
May was succeeded by Boris Johnson who took over
from her as the Prime Minister of the UK. The
Conservative party of Johnson was successful in
subsequently acquiring a majority during the royally
mandated election which was held on 12th December,
2019 (Baker & Uberoi, 2019). This facilitated
Johnson to acquire the necessary approval from the
Parliament for the withdrawal agreement which was
negotiated with the EU. The agreement received the
required legislative royal assent on 23rd January,
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2020. It was on this date that the queen agreed to
convert this bill into a law (UK Parliament, 2021).
Formally, the UK made it exit from the EU on 31 st
January, 2020 but they moved into a period of
transition which eventually came to an end on 31st
December, 2020. Agreement with regards to the EUUK Trade and Cooperation was accepted on 24 th
December, 2020 and signed six days later (European
Council, 2020) i.e, on the 30th December, 2020.
Everything said and done, now that the UK has
officially made its exit from the EU, therefore it is
necessary to comprehend the insinuations of this exit
for the UK as well as the EU.
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II. IMPLICATIONS OF BREXIT ON THE UK AND
EU
The decision of the UK to exit the EU has
for one created a lot of uncertainty with regards to the
future of relationships in terms of trade following
Brexit. It has been stated by Klaus Schwab (2017) the
financial repercussions arising from the UK’s exit
vote could already be felt. In addition, there is
tremendous scope that such impacts would definitely
increase following the implementation of Article 50
from the Lisbon Treaty. The Bank of England has
remarked that owing to Brexit, a material slump has
been witnessed in the prices of certain European area
risky assets, for example, bank equities, where a drop
in prices would be aggravated through concerns
pertaining to the profitability of certain banks in the
Europe region (Bank of England, 2016) and this was
even before the leave vote was approved.
III. IMPACT ON THE UK
Brexit has already made a tremendous
impact on the UK. There has been a drastic
1
slowdown in the UK economy and several
organizations have shifted their headquarters to the
EU. Needless to say it has also impacted jobs and
growth.
IV. GROWTH
The growth of the economy has been
severely impacted by Brexit and this is largely
attributed to the uncertainty that revolves around the
eventual outcome. The economic growth of the UK
slowed from 2.4% during 2015 to 1.0% during 2019
owing to uncertainty from Brexit. It has been
estimated by the government in the UK that the
growth of the UK would be further lowered by 6.7%
over the forthcoming 15 years. Though the prevalent
terms of free trade were assumed, immigration
continued to be restricted (Daniel Harari, 2019).
wing anti-immigration parties were especially antiEU within Germany and France. If they managed to
gain much ground, they would be in a position to
compel an anti-EU vote. In case either France or
Germany makes an exit, the EU stands to lose its
most robust economies and it would lead to a
dissolution of the EU as such. At the same time, a
large segment of citizens from the EU continue to
extend their full support to the union. The Pew
Research Center conducted an extensive research
throughout ten European nations has revealed that
almost 75% of the respondents who participated in
the research were of the belief that peace was
promoted by the EU, while 55% opined that the EU
supported prosperity. Also, a third of the respondents
perceived a diminishing role of the UK (Wike et al.,
2019).
Figure 1: Long-term GDP Impact from Brexit in the
UK
Source: Daniel Harari, (2019)
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V. JOBS
Young workers in the UK were most hit by
Brexit. A shortage of 3 million skilled workers will
be experienced by Germany by 2030 (The Local,
2017). However, following Brexit, these jobs might
not be readily available to workers from the UK.
Further, employers across the UK are finding it
challenging to find candidates as EU born workers
left the UK, and their numbers dropped by 95%
during 2017. This has made a massive impact on lowskilled and medium-skilled occupations largely.
VI. IMPACT ON THE EU
Brexit is largely deemed as a vote that was
not in favour of globalization and as an outcome it
has weakened the forces across the EU that were in
favour of incorporation. Members from the right-
VII. CONCLUSION
In short, it has been observed that following
the referendum of the UK to exit from the EU, the
standard measures are indicative of a substantial
growth in the level of uncertainty. Furthermore, it has
been noted that there is high scope that Brexit would
impat not just the UK but also the economy in other
parts of the EU via diverse channels of transmission,
for example; trade, immigration, uncertainty and
investment. Moreover, it is clear that in the near
future, the major brunt of Brexit would prove to be
increased uncertainty in terms of economic as well as
political aspects. Such issues have the potential to
reduce the pace of investment growth and private
consumption along with foreign trade, essentially
within the UK; though the impact of Brexit would
also be felt majorly within the EU too.
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REFERENCES
Baker, C., & Uberoi, E. (2019). General Election 2019:
The
results.
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/generalelection-2019-the-results-so-far/
Bank
of
England.
(2016).
Inflation
Report.
https://www.bankofengland.co.uk//media/boe/files/inflation-report/2016/august2016.pdf
Daniel Harari. (2019). Brexit deal: Potential economic
impact. https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/brexitdeal-potential-economic-impact/
European Council. (2020). EU-UK Trade and Cooperation
Agreement: Council adopts decision on the signing.
https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/pressreleases/2020/12/29/eu-uk-trade-and-cooperationagreement-council-adopts-decision-on-the-signing/#
Klaus Schwab. (2017). The Global Competitiveness Report
2016–2017.
http://www3.weforum.org/docs/GCR20162017/05FullReport/TheGlobalCompetitivenessRepor
t2016-2017_FINAL.pdf
Nigel Walker. (2021). Brexit timeline: events leading to the
UK’s
exit
from
the
European
Union.
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/researchbriefings/cbp-7960/
Shannon Schumacher. (2019). Brexit divides the UK, but
partisanship and ideology are still key factors.
https://www.pewresearch.org/facttank/2019/10/28/brexit-divides-the-uk-butpartisanship-and-ideology-are-still-key-factors/
The Local. (2017). Germany could lack 3 million skilled
workers
by
2030,
study
finds.
https://www.thelocal.de/20170830/germany-couldlack-33-million-skilled-workers-by-2040-study/
UK
Parliament.
(2021).
Royal
Assent.
https://www.parliament.uk/about/how/laws/passagebill/lords/lrds-royal-assent/
Wike, Richard, Fetterolf, J., & Fagan,
and M. (2019).
Europeans Credit EU With Promoting Peace and
Prosperity, but Say Brussels Is Out of Touch With Its
Citizens.
https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2019/03/19/eur
opeans-credit-eu-with-promoting-peace-andprosperity-but-say-brussels-is-out-of-touch-with-itscitizens/