Faculty of Business and Information Science A coursework completed as part of the requirement for COURSE NAME: FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT 2 COURSE CODE: BA208 LECTURER: MISS LIM AI FEN Entitled ASSIGNMENT TITLE: GROUP ASSIGNMENT Submitted on DATE OF SUBMISSION: 3 March 2021 DUE DATE: 4 March 2021 Produced by 1 Name Student ID PUA CHING LYNN 1001851499 2 NO CRITERIA MAXIMUM MARKS MARKS AWARDED REMARKS Discuss and evaluate risk and return associated 1 with each of these alternatives. 35 Alternative 1: Nonmarketable financial assets Alternative 2: Capital Market Securities Alternative 3: Derivative Securities Explain how to manage risks identified in question 2 (1). 35 List 3 and specify all your recommended nonmarketable financial asset(s) and its financial 20 institution(s) recommended (for alternative marketable 1) or your securities (for alternative 2 or/and 3) in your portfolio. State the reason(s) for selecting that financial asset(s). 4 Peer evaluation (Peer evaluation form) 10 Total marks 100 3 TABLE OF CONTENT Content page Discuss and evaluate risk and return associated with each of these alternatives 6-20 Alternative 1: Nonmarketable Financial Assets 6-7 The Risk in Nonmarketable Financial Assets 8 Risk- Fixed Deposit The Return in Nonmarketable Financial Assets 9 Return- Fixed Deposit Alternative 2: Capital Market Securities 10-12 Risk in Capital Market Securities 13 Risk- Bond Risk- Stock 14 The Return in Capital Market Securities 15 Return- Bond Return- Stock 15-16 Alternative 3: Derivative Securities 17-18 Future Contract The Risk in Derivative Securities 19 The Return in Derivative Securities 20 Explain how to manage risks identified in question (1) 21-27 Alternative 1 21-22 Fixed deposit Alternative 2 23 Bond 4 Stock 24-26 Alternative 3 26-27 Future Contract List and specify all your recommended nonmarketable financial asset(s) and its 28-45 financial institution(s) (for alternative 1) or your recommended marketable securities (for alternative 2 or/and 3) in your portfolio. State the reason(s) for selecting that financial asset(s). Alternative 1 28 Fixed Deposit Alternative 2 29-35 Bond Stock 36-45 Conclusion 46 WACC References 47-49 Turnitin Report. 50-52 5 Discuss and evaluate risk and return associated with each of these alternatives. Alternative 1: Non Marketable Financial Assets Non marketable securities are financial assets that are unable to trade on major and active secondary market. It is mainly traded as part of a private transaction since it is difficult to buy and sell so it may only trade on over-the-counter (OTC) exchange thus it is highly illiquid. It is indeed suitable for investors who prefer long term investment with a guaranteed return and certain that they will not need part of their money for a specific period of time until the maturity because no interest will be given in case one withdraw the money out of the account before maturity. The lack of marketability and liquidity make investors demand a higher rate of return on the non-marketable financial assets. Thus, even when the market perform well , there is certainly no returns will be given which draw people away but risk averse investor may prefer such investment as the risk is relatively lower that marketable securities. Fixed deposit (FD) is one of the most recognized non-marketable assets that offers higher interest and return though sophisticated saving and investment tools. The interest payment for FD is calculated and paid once upon maturity. The types of FD in the market in Malaysia are short term fixed deposit, long term fixed deposit, conventional fixed deposit and Islamic fixed deposit. As compared to Singapore and Taiwan, Malaysia banks have indeed relatively higher FD rate. Overnight policy rate (OPR) which is the interest rate bank charged on one another in the interbank market. OPR has positive relationship with deposit rate, lending rate and prime rate. Hence, when OPR moved, all other interest rate will follow OPR in the same direction. For instance, when OPR is set to be lower, all other rates will be lowered, vice versa. Low OPR leads to low interest rate (i) which makes the FD rate become lower. FD rate has decreased gradually which makes them less attractive as compared to bonds which provide a return of 45% annually which is generally more than double the current FD rates. Besides, saving account is basically one of the most common type of account in all banks in Malaysia. Depositor can earn interest in the fastest and safest way by depositing their money in saving account. Unlike FD, saving account allow you to access your fund whenever you want but the interest paid is relatively lower. Still it is a good option for parking cash in case of emergency or as a contingency plan since it is highly liquid. However, its interest rate will be revised in case if the OPR changed. 6 Therefore, we decide to invest in FD since it offer relatively higher rate than saving account that bear least interest among all accounts. We will put 10% of our fund in FD because it helps to diversify our investment portfolio since it considered less risky and volatile. 7 Risk of the Non-marketable Financial Asset 1. Liquidity risk Liquidity risk is the inability of a bank to fulfil its financial obligation thereby causing the bank to lose liquidity (Kumar, 2008). Bank run occurs when sudden unexpected large deposits withdrawals results from high liquidity risk where depositors fear of bankruptcy of bank. Since huge cash outflows from the bank itself until to a point where bank runs out of cash this will disrupt the optimal function of banking system and bank forced to sell their asset to meet depositors demand (What is a Bank Run, n.d.). If this disruption persisted, it will lead to uncontrolled bank run and eventually multiples banks bankrupt and economy enters recession. In short, depositors will face liquidity risk when bank has poor liquidity management. 2. Inflation risk Real interest rate decrease when inflation increase. This is unfavourable to depositors where they incur loss upon depositing their money in the bank for long term investment. For instance, if the investors deposit RM100000 for 1 years at 6.8% but inflation rate increase to 10% after 2 years. The investors are then suffer loss as the real interest rate turn negative where 6.8% minus 10% equal to −3.2% given that real interest rate is the difference between nominal interest rate and inflation. The hope of getting fixed interest rate and a return of RM68000 vanished when inflation rate increased. Money loses values and people’s purchasing power diminish if the inflation rate kept increasing until hyperinflation happened. Barter system will then take place where exchange of goods replace the money as a medium of exchange. 3. Reinvestment risk One may not be able to earn the same rate of returns as previously as the reinvestment risk arises. This is due to the fact that changed in interest rate would have caused the cash flows earned from current investment unable to be reinvested to earn the exact same rate of return. For instance, the decreasing interest rate in Malaysia leave investors contemplate whether to go for reinvestment of their fixed deposits or not. They might get lower rate for their FDs at the time of maturity (Archana, 2020). 8 Return of Non-marketable Financial Asset Return in Interest rate of fixed deposit: Bank 3-month 6-month 9-month 12-month (%) p.a. (%) p.a. (%) p.a. (%) p.a. 2.4 2.4 2.4 Verda- Affin Hwang Asset Management 2.4 Hong Leong Bank 2.5 1 2.5 2 1.6 1.6 CIMB Bank3 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.25 Bank Simpanan Malaysia 1.8 1.85 1.9 2.2 OCBC Bank 1.45 1.6 1.7 2.384 Multiple banks such as Hong Leong Banks, CIMB Bank and OCBC Bank launched Chinese New Year 2021 fixed deposits promotion until March to attract investors to deposit their money in the banks. For instance, RM10000 at 2.4% interest per year would yield RM 10240 based on the formula where future value of investment (FV) = PV (1+r) n. Therefore after 1 year, the future value of investment Verda- Affin Hwang Asset Management is RM10240, RM10160 in Hong Leong Bank, RM10225 in CIMB Bank whereas RM10220 in Bank Simpanan Malaysia and RM10238 in OCBC Bank. The lowest future value received is from Hong Leong Bank and the highest is RM10240 from Verda- Affin Hwang Asset Management after 1 year. 1 Promotion date from 10 January to 31 March 2021 with a minimum of RM10000 and revised when OPR change. 2 Promotion date from 10 January to 31 March 2021 with a minimum of RM10000 and revised when OPR change. 3 eFixed Deposit Rates for a minimum of RM5000 and the campaign period is from 3 February to 4 March 2021. 4 The “Online Fixed Deposit Promotion” offers 2.28%p.a. with minimum of RM1000 from 6 February to 31 March 2021 and deposits must be made from fund transfer from other bank only to enjoy such promotional rate for 1 year. 9 Alternative 2: Capital Market Securities Bond Bonds are debt securities offered by the capital market indicates bonds are loan made to the eligible public listed company or government to meet their financing meets and it is a type of fixed income investment where the bondholder will be received a fixed specified interest payment at a given date. The issuer has the obligation to pay the face value or par value of the bond upon maturity. In Malaysia, Sukuk is a bond that is issued in accordance with the Shariah principles which can be traded either on the Bursa Malaysia or over-the-counter (OTC) via licensed banks (Investing in Bonds, n.d.). Sukuk or Government. According to Mohamad (2020), the bond market has a positive prospect with upward yields bias in 2021 and government highly encourages the issuance of sustainable and responsible Sukuk and bonds through income tax exemption for the next five years to drive hope for economy recovery from the impact of Covid-19. Hence, we choose to include bond in the portfolio. By investing in more than one bond can reduce the unsystematic risk through diversification. With steady foreign demand and growth of yield, the Malaysian bond market is found to experience its seventh straight month of net foreign inflow in November 2020 (Lam, 2020). This has assured us that the Malaysian bonds are worth to be invested in. The first bond we chose is UMWH IMTN 5.220% 02.10.2026 that offers coupon payment of 5.22% annually and this company has a credit rating of AA2 from RAM. Besides, BGSM MGMT IMTN 5.600% 27.12.2023 - ISSUE NO 9 is chosen because it offers a relatively higher interest payment of 5.6% per annum. BGSM Management Sdn Bhd received credit rating of AA3 from RAM indicate it is subjected to low credit risk and proved to be a reliable one. Furthermore, we chose to invest in bond issued by MMC Corporation Berhad where the stock code is MMC CORP IMTN 5.700% 24.03.2028. This bond offers 5.7% coupon payment annually and the credit rating given by MARC is AA with a stable outlook. 10 Stock A share of stock in a firm represents ownership and it is funds provided by the firm’s owners which is referring to investors and stockholders that are repaid subject to the firm’s performance. Generally, there are two types of equity which are common stock and preferred stock. The difference in monetary term is that common stockholder receive a fixed dividend at regular intervals unlike common stock may pay dividend depending on the financial health i.e. the profitability of the company. People purchase stock as a type of investment in the hope that the stock value of the particular company will go up in the future. This is due to the fact that when the stock price increases, the shareholder can sell the high priced stock and make capital gain. Another way of getting return from stocks is that the firm pays the stockholder dividends. However, stock is risky than bonds since stockholders is the residue claimant if the company bankrupt and the worst is that if nothing is left over, they will eventually get nothing at all. In Malaysia, stocks are sold on the Bursa Malaysia and Over-the-Counter Markets and only eligible public listed companies are able to issue shares and sell it to public investors on the stock market. Malaysian’s stock market is the top performer in 2020 ahead of countries such as Thailand, Philippines and even Singapore (Kok, 2021). Hence, the outlook for overall stock market performance is predicted to be positive which is why we choose to invest part of our fund in stocks to gain higher return since we have diversified our portfolio with bonds as well to mitigate the risk of stocks. In short, we decide to put RM60000 of our fund in stock investment. We have chosen Top Glove Corporation Berhad, Kuala Lumpur Berhad (KLK), Hong Leong Financial Group (HLFG) and Hai-O Enterprise Berhad. All these stocks are of different sectors to diversify our portfolio and so that we seize the opportunity not to miss out on the hottest sectors or being dragged down by the coldest ones in 2021. The plantation giant Kuala Lumpur Kepong (KLK) Berhad has been practicing green technology to produce environmentally friendly palm oil. This advantage of achieving one of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) drives the business growth and increase investment inflows where investors are willing to purchase KLK’s stocks as they places higher expectation on the company’s performance and brighter future prospects for instance they earn 14 cents more for every unit share being held in 2020. Besides, we include Top Glove stocks in our portfolio is mainly because its net profit spiked up to RM2 billion due to the strong global demand for gloves during the Covid-19 pandemic. The company is experiencing increasing 11 trend of cash flow from operating activities which will further increases its cash position (Lim, 2020). Thus, we look forward to see the rising stock price and receive higher dividends. Next, shareholders of Hong Leong Financial Group (HLFG) has been earning RM 1 ringgit plus for the past five years which is relatively higher than the giant producers’ mentioned above with lower share price. This is why we aim to invest part of our fund in this reputable and reliable group. Furthermore, being the first traditional healthcare company listed on Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad, Hai-O Enterprise Berhad has achieved remarkable performance in providing superior and high quality TCM services and medicines to the Malaysian. With cheapest price per share among the stocks we choose, making it the affordable one to purchase. In essence, we reduce the unsystematic risks by choosing four stocks in different sectors to structure a well-diversified portfolio. 12 The Risk in Capital Market Securities Risk- Bond i) Credit Risk. Credit risk is known as default risk where the possibility that the issuer of debt unable to pay the contractual interest or principal as scheduled (Gitman & Zutter, 2015). The repercussion is bondholders unable to receive the coupon payment and some of them could not receive the face value upon the bonds mature. This condition is less likely to happen in government bonds because government can either increase the taxes to or print money to pay for the bond investors. However, taxes increase and printing money is the least approach that will be taken by government as both of these plans may disrupt the business cycle and leading to bad economic growth. Hence, the government bond is deemed as risk free rate where the return of the bond is lower due to less risk exposure in investing the bonds. Corporation expose to the risk of default resulting from the higher returns offered from the bonds issued which will increase their financial burden. ii) Interest Rate Risk. Interest rate risk is a risk resulting from changes in the interest rate. The interest rate is inversely related to the price of bonds. Hence, when the interest increase, the bond price will decrease, and vice versa. The higher interest rate causes current bondholder to sell their bonds to prevent loss incurred. The supply of the existing bond increase thus lowering down the bond price. The devaluation of bonds will make the bondholder to receive lower bond market value at the maturity than the face value implying the bond is sell at a discount. As a result, people hold more money to buy the newly issued bonds with higher interest rates to receive higher coupon interest payment. The demand of the new bonds will increase and demand of the existing/ older bonds will decrease. Time to maturity will also affect the price of the bond. The longer the time to maturity, the higher the volatility of the interest rates. Hence, the longer the bond is being hold, the higher the interest rate risk will be faced by bondholders, the less liquid the bond is. Moreover, inflation will contribute to higher interest rate as well because interest rate equal to the sum of real interest rate and inflation rate. When inflation rate increases, the interest rate rises. These conditions make cash less attractive than cash. 13 Risk - Stocks 1. Market value risk Market value risk arises when the market turns into unfavourable condition towards one’s investment. Hence, one should avoid putting same sectors and category stocks in the portfolio so that the loss incurred from the one of the particular stock can be offset or covered by other stock in the portfolio. 2. Economic risk. A bad economy situation has high probability to heighten the economic risk since almost every stock unable to escape from it. For instance, the Covid-19 pandemic accelerated in Malaysia and spiked the unemployment rate to rise to 5.0% in April 2020. With high unemployment rate, there is a leakage of spending in the circular flow of economy. Therefore, people save a greater proportion of their income and less demand for goods and services which will then reduce the purchasing power. This will deteriorate the stock price as demand is low causes stockholders unable to benefit from getting any dividend due to low net income of companies as a sign of poor financial health. Most of the investors are pessimistic about the stock market which induces them to sell the stock immediately that implies the supply will be greater than the demand of stock consequently reduces the stock price. Hence, economic risk has indeed bring repercussion to stocks. 3. Inflationary Risk Inflation makes people suffers as the purchasing power decrease and the money value drop. Inflation affect the rate of return of the portfolio and one suffers loss as the investment is experiencing the drop in money value. Inflation has indeed hurt shareholders thus one should aim for stock that yield high return to safeguard yourself from inflation. 4. Transaction cost Shareholders are required to pay high transaction which is the commission of brokerage charged from servicing. Transaction costs considered one of the key determinants of net returns because it reduces returns and the amount of capital available to invest. High transaction costs will also results in low liquidity in stocks which put a strain on the return of investors. The larger the amount one invest in stocks, the higher the transaction fees one will need to pay. 14 Return in the Capital Market Securities Returns- Bond 1. Coupon payment Issuers have the obligation to give coupon payment which is the annual interest payment of the bond to bondholders until it matures. The coupon payment remain constant i.e. unchanged throughout the life of the bond. Most of the coupon payment made twice a year meaning it is split into semi-annually. Coupon payment is unaffected by the market price and market yield and this secure the bondholder with fixed income. 2. Lower Interest Rate The current economic prospect in Malaysia is worrying due to the surging cases of Covid-19 pandemic and the economists expect the likelihood for a further cut of 25bps in overnight policy rating OPR within the first half of the year (Idris, 2021). The lower the OPR, the lower the all other interest rates given that all interest rates will follow the movement of OPR implying they are directly related. With low interest rate, the expected return of the bonds increases, and the demand for money decrease where people will buy bond now and sell when bond prices increases to make capital gain. Hence, people left with holding less speculative balance indicates that bond is more attractive than cash when the interest rate drops in the future. The demand for the existing bonds increases resulting in higher bond prices. The bondholder can then sell the bond at premium whereby the bond price is higher than the par value. This benefits the bondholders to reap profits. Return - Stocks 1) Earning per share (EPS) EPS is interest to stockholders and it generally represents the number of ringgit earned during the period on behalf of each outstanding share of common stock. For instance, the EPS of Top Glove stocks is 22 cents in 2020, this indicate for 1 unit of share being hold, the investors earned 22 cents. The higher the EPS, the higher the profits gained for stockholders. 2) Return on Equity (ROE) ROE is used to measure how much or how well the firm earns for each ringgit of common stock equity. The ROE of the four stocks that we chose range from 7%- 29%. Hence, higher ROE indicates that the company is efficient in utilizing the investment financing to improve and growth their business so that they are able to provide investors higher and promising returns. 15 3) Total Rate of Return (ROR) Total gain or loss experienced on stock investment. It is a sum of cash distribution which means the changes in investment value plus the dividends. High ROR indicates one make profit and negative ROR implies loss incurred. 4) Dividend Dividend is reward gives to investors for putting their money into the business venture and the amount given to shareholders is determined by the board of directors. However, not all companies are bound to pay dividend to shareholders. Dividend may be paid quarterly, semiannually or annually depend on the company itself. 16 3.0 Alternative 3: Derivative Securities A derivative is a financial instrument that derive their value from the value of an underlying asset so it does not have its own value unlike stocks and bonds that have their own valuation. However, it does holds little value and its entire value is thus largely depend on the underlying asset. The common of derivatives are forward, future, option and swap contracts. Derivative is used for hedging, arbitraging and speculation by the market players. For instances, hedgers use derivative markets to reduce risks and speculators speculate on the belief about the future price movement and volatility while arbitraging activities involve selling or buying contracts and other assets to benefit from the mispricing. Future Contract Future contract is a legal binding agreement between buyer and seller to trade an asset at an agreed price and time in the future. It is a standardized and exchange traded forward contracts which means the place of delivery, quality, quantity and maturity are unable to be customized. Forward contract Forward contract is a formal agreement which the parties involve are said to have taken long and short position. The transaction of this contract are made via the over-the-counter (OTC) and the contractual agreement on the quantity delivery places and times is unregulated so that both parties can negotiate for the terms in the contracts. For instance, Futures Crude Palm Oil contract (FCPO can be traded on Bursa Malaysia Derivative (BMD). It is traded electronically and allow us to trade and access easily to all BMD products. The minimum contract size is 25 metric tons (MT) which is equal to 1 contract, RM 1 per metric ton. FCPO can be hedged up to 3 years forward thus provide investors a more effective and efficient hedging instrument to manage and reduce risk exposure. Malaysia achieved highest monthly export value at about RM96 billion and palm oil based agriculture products was one of the main products contributed to the increase in exports and Malaysia has already filed a complaint against the European Union over its palm oil measure to resolve the dispute of banning palm oil (Malaysia, 2021). Malaysia has indeed showed effort to tackle the challenge to protect the palm oil industry because banning of palm 17 oil will result in huge loss of export income and bring benefit but only harm to our country. In addition, the FCPO on BMD closed at a fresh high of RM3877 per tonne which is the highest record since February and is positive for the market. In essence, future contract is suitable for risk seeking or loving investors as high profit gained is always associated with high risk. 18 Risk in Derivative Securities 1. Counterparty credit risk Forward contract trader will encounter counterparty credit risk when the other party goes default on or before the maturity of the contract. For instance, one have gone 10 long quantity of Crude Palm Oil Future Contract with 10 tons per contract and the future price is RM3000 per ton. However, on the date of maturity, the spot price drop to RM2000, one will incur losses of RM100000 [(RM3000- RM2000) x 10 contracts x 10 tons/contract]. Buyer will need to settle the total amount of difference between agreed price in the contract and the spot price at the expiration date. The seller is thus exposed to high default risk as the buyer might not be able to pay for RM100000. Thus, the price movement is indeed unpredictable, unforeseeable and unexpected. 2. Leverage Risk According to Milton (2019), “leverage is the ability to trade a relatively large number of contracts.” Leverage allow investor to margin investment without putting 100% of the contract’s value. Hence, they are required to pay initial margin amount which is a portion of the total value. If an investment has a very high market risk i.e. systematic risk, and high beta, leverage risk is higher for a highly volatile securities such as derivative. Most of the time leverage only favourable to low beta, volatile and market risk investment where the profit can be magnified which allow you to make a leveraged return. Investors use leverage to increase the return of investment however, if price is move against you, your loss will be overwhelmed and unable to repay the debt. For instance, current market price of FCPO is RM3396 and investor short for 1 future contract hence the total value will be RM 84900 (RM 3396 x 1 contract x 25 MT) and the initial margin required is RM9000. Although you only put down small portion of the total value but you will still have exposure to RM75900 (RM84900RM9000). If the spot price goes up to RM4000 at maturity, the loss incurred will be RM15100 (RM604 x 1 contract x 25 MT). Hence, investors lose more than initial margin and need to bear the additional losses incurred. Price sensitivity of a derivative contract has indeed magnified by the effect of leverage. However, leverage is a necessary evil used in the derivative market otherwise trading become a hassle that put everyone off as investors unable to enjoy greater capital efficiency. 19 Return of Derivative Securities 1. Buy Put Option Going long or buying on a Put is a strategy that can benefit the investors with unlimited profits and the risk is limited to the premium paid. The buyer of the Put own the right to sell an asset at a pre-specified price to limit one’s risk. Hence, the investor will gain if the underlying asset fall down. The investor can exercise the option when the price of asset drop below the strike price .i.e. the exercise price. Long put holder will gain when the price of the asset lower than the sum of strike price and put option premium. 2. Buy Call option Buying or going long on a call is a strategy that must be devised when the investor is bullish on the market direction moving up in the short term. This option is the simplest and easiest way to benefit if the investor believe that the market will make an upward move. Investors has the right to buy an asset at a pre-specified price to limit one’s risk. The investor can exercise the option when the price of asset rise above the strike price. The risk is limited to the premium paid and the investors can enjoy unlimited profits if the price of an asset goes up. 20 Explain how to manage risks identified in question (1). Alternative 1: Non-marketable Financial Asset 1. Liquidity risk Depositors should always determine and evaluate the financial performance and health of a financial institutions by looking at the financial statements. For instance, one must check the asset quality ratio of banks during any economic shocks. Depositor should avoid deposit in banks that faced extreme deterioration of asset quality during bad economy condition. This is because expenses spent on impairment loans is too high and if banks unable to cover the bad debts and loans, banks will not be able to meet their short term obligation when one wish to withdraw the deposits upon maturity. To further illustrate this point, “the S&P Global Ratings foresees a visible deterioration of Malaysian banks’ asset quality condition due to Covid-19 and related business disruptions” (EE, 2020). The gross non-performing assets (NPAs) increases to about 2.7% percent which is higher than last year indicate the asset quality performance is in poor shape but it is considered one of the lowest of in the Asean region so depositors can be reassured that Malaysian banks are not in the detrimental state and is performing relatively better than other countries’ banks. Furthermore, liquidity of a bank is measured by liquidity coverage ratio. It measures the ability of a bank to fulfil its short term (within one month) obligation without having to borrow cash within interbank or access to any outside cash. For depositor that wish to deposit fund within one month or less, then one should aware of the bank’s liquidity coverage ratio as if the bank is capable to fund cash outflows for 30 day and meet every obligation to depositors and creditors immediately, the bank proved to have enough asset to honour them and will continue to function optimally. Therefore, depositors must examine the balance sheet and asset quality as well as liquidity coverage ratio before deciding to invest in a bank. 2. Inflation risk Depositors may not be able to get inflation-beating returns when inflation rate increases, a condition where the general price of goods and services rises. However, by investing in a fixed deposit for a short term may ensure one to get comfortable margin and earn higher returns. The value of money saved could be much less than it was earned and depositors will definitely 21 incur losses. Thus, one should always lookout for investment options whose return are more than the prevailing inflation rate to ensure the real value of money to return received is above the inflation rate with a positive return (Sharma, 2019). The fixed deposit’s interest rates offered by banks is difficult to beat inflation and thus it is advisable to invest in short term fixed deposits rather than long term’s. The longer the time to maturity, the higher volatility of interest rate and thus exposing one to higher risk of inflation. However, there are indeed banks that offers higher interest rate for short term deposits and depositors should seize the opportunity to invest funds into those banks. Besides, investors should always ensure that the interest rate of fixed deposits surpass Consumer Price Index (CPI). CPI is generally an indicator of inflation used to measures the percentage change in price of a basket of goods and services consumed by households in a specific time period for identifying inflation or deflation (Inflation, n.d.). The critical strength of CPI is that its flexibility to take into account external factors such as consumer choice and seasonal adjustment. Hence, investors who would like to look for clues the future inflation rate could actually check the CPI before making investment choice. However, as an economic predictor, CPI has it limitation as well that it does not take into consideration of all costs such as taxes and only measure prices from the consumers’ perspective. Therefore, PPI comes into place which reflect the average change in prices that domestic producers of goods receive for their products. PPI tracks changes to the cost of production and thus providing a history series of data about the prices movement in every stage. Investors can make use of this PPI as a reference to predict the future inflation rate before investing. In short, depositors could divide their funds according to the probability of withdrawal and plan a good structure of deposit method to avoid liquidity risk and inflation risk. 22 Alternative 2: Bond: 1. Choose higher credit rating bond Investors rely heavily on bond ratings to evaluate the creditworthiness of a specific bonds. The bond issuer’s financial capacity and strength are the main concern for investors looking for a long term investment. With higher credit rating, the risk of default could be minimized and the coupon interest payment and bond’s principal can be received in the stipulated date in the contract. Hence, we chose three bond with high credit ratings to reduce credit risk. The first bond -UMWH IMTN 5.220% 02.10.2026 is rated as AA2 by RAM, second-BGSM MGMT IMTN 5.600% 27.12.2023 - ISSUE NO 9 has a credit rating of AA3 and lastly, MMC CORP IMTN 5.700% 24.03.2028 is rated as AA bond by MARC. Therefore, we can invest safely in such stable investment that are hardly encountered liquidity issues. 2. Diversify bonds portfolio by acquiring bonds with different maturity dates. Investors should always avoid putting all eggs in one basket. Allocate different bonds to your investment portfolio can reduce the loss incurred or offset the losses in one bond with the gain in another. We chose bonds with different maturity that range from 3 years to maximum 7 years. We are a risk averse investors and plan to hold the bonds until maturity and do not sell it merely due to the changes in interest rate. The prices of three bonds are calculated and we found out that all the prices are above the current price on 25 February 2021 to make sure the bond we chose is worth investing and minimize the loss incurred. 23 Alternative 2: Stocks 1. Robo Advisor It is an automated portfolio managers to help investors in managing investments. It is an alternative to traditional advisor. Sign up for a robo advisor is simple where you just need to list out your investment goals on the internet and answer related questions such as risk tolerance, amount of money to be invested and investment time line. Robo advisor will use algorithm to generate a personalized diversified investments portfolio and provide an asset allocation approach that suit you (Anspach, 2021). Hence, it is considered efficient and effective system for an amateur investor and it can avoid market sentiment because emotion and attitude would drive the investors to make wrong decision sometimes. Trading with emotion during time of volatility will not be seen in a robo advisors and they are taking emotion out of wealth while helping investors to get the best returns. There are four robo-advisors licensed by Securities Malaysia such as MYTHEO, Raiz Invest, Stashaway and Wahed Invest. Hence, Malaysian can actually make use of it and the robo advisor fees are affordable. 2. Technical Analysis An investment strategy used to predict probable future stock price movement and guide investors to what most likely to happen given past information. Technical analysis rely on past stock price data and price patterns such as trends and regular cycles in order to produce its forecasts. In general, technical analysis emphasizes on multiple indicators such as price trends, chart patterns, volume and momentum, moving average, support and resistance as well as oscillators. For instance, momentum measures the changes in speed or movement of prices of stocks whereas support and resistance helps investor to indicate whether the stock is on bearish or bullish trend (Sraders, 2019). Bottom up and top-down are ways to approach technical analysis. Top-down approach is generally a macroeconomic analysis that examine and look at the whole economy, sectors and then the outlook or financial health and performance of the company before choosing the particular securities (Seth, 2021). Short term investors often adopt top-down approach to make short term gain. Next, the bottom-up investing merely focus on individual stocks and its fundamentals rather than the industry and the market cycles. Long term investors may favour this approach as they delve deep into the particular company they deemed to have growth potential. 24 Hence, most investors believe that the use of technical analysis help to create self-fulfilling trading rules and minimize their risk. 3. Fundamental Analysis A method of measuring the intrinsic value of a stock to see if the stocks prices traded on the market are currently overvalued or undervalued. Fundamental analysis involve examine the key ratios of a company to determine its financial health and performance to help with investment decisions. Thus, investors can make use of publicly available data to determine the estimated value of the particular stock price. Investors may buy a stock where its value is higher than the market price, i.e. stock is undervalued. This method consists of qualitative and quantitative analysis. In terms of qualitative, corporate governance are emphasized to check whether the company is accountable, transparent and comply with all rules and regulations. For quantitative, the financial ratios on the balance sheet and income statement such as P/E ratio and EPS will be calculated to ensure a company’s financial health is sustainable and is profitable for investors. Therefore, investor can minimize risk through fundamental analysis before putting fund to invest in a specific stock. 4. Transaction Cost Investor can avoid paying high transaction costs by comparing and finding the best share trading account in Malaysia. The table below are the brokerage fees charged by each platform: We choose Rakuten Trade as trading platform to invest in Top Glove, Hong Leong Financial Group (HLFG), Kuala Lumpur Kepong Berhad (KLK) and Hai-O stocks as Rakuten 25 Trade offers the lowest brokerage fees of RM7 as compared to other platform. In addition, opening an account in Rakuten Trade is free of charge and the time taken to register is within two hours or even less. This has indeed help investor to save money and time. Thus, investors should compare brokerage fees before investing to maximize the return. 5. Market Value Risk Investors should always invest stocks with different sector to diversify the investment portfolio and to avoid losses when the market go against it. For instance the stocks we chose are from different sector where Top Glove is belongs to pharmaceutical’s, HLFG is belongs to financial services sector, KLK is in plantation’s whereas Hai-O is categorised in consumer products and services sector. Alternative 3: Derivative instruments 1. Counterparty Credit Risk Future contract aim to eliminate the counterparty credit risk that faced in forward contract. Clearing house guarantees each trade by transferring the default risk on itself where in case of default of one parties, it will stands ready to complete the trade. Clearing house will collect margins from both parties to the transaction to collateralize each party’s exposure under the contract and this involve the marking to market process when clearinghouse recognize any losses incurred by the long or short position (Future Contract, n.d.). When investor’ margin balance fall below the maintenance margin, one will receive a margin call from the broker to immediately top up to the level of initial margin. This will drastically lower the probability of default to almost zero thus giving the investors the ability to enter or exit whenever they choose to do so. 2. Leverage Risk A single multi-party contract could be used to drives a common settlement mechanism for all investors in an autonomous manner. By enabling investor to participate in trades with more than one (multiple) counterparties, leverage risk could be reduced. Investors will be able to take different position simultaneously and predict as well as forecast the price movement and 26 price range for the asset. This will indeed create potential of higher returns while the risk remained fixed to the initial stake (Kalikar, 2019). Investors can avoid exposure of risk of losing more than they put into the investment. The transformation of one-to many or many-tomany in a direct setting can indeed bring unprecedented with unlimited profits to the investors. 27 List and specify all your recommended nonmarketable financial asset(s) and its financial institution(s) (for alternative 1) or your recommended marketable securities (for alternative 2 or/and 3) in your portfolio. State the reason(s) for selecting that financial asset(s). Alternative 1 Fixed deposit Fixed deposits is considered a risk free investment among the non-marketable securities and is suitable for risk averse investors to put their money into fixed deposit that bear relatively higher interest than saving accounts. However, the one can only withdraw the money until the date of maturity with the guaranteed of the principal with return. Investor is required to deposit a minimum of RM10000 into Hong Leong Bank that offers the highest interest rate for a 6-month fixed deposit. Given the investor invests 10% of RM100000 which will earn RM250 by depositing in bank 6 months. Simple interest formula: I= P x r x t Interest earned = Principal x Interest rate x Time = RM10000 x 2.5% x 6 month = RM250 Future value investment= Principal + Interest earned = RM10000 + RM250 = RM10250 From the calculation above, the investor will get RM10250 in the end of maturity which is after 6-month. OPR will be announced on next month-March, and if further cut of OPR will lead to Hong Leong Bank revise the interest rate of 2.5% and the investor gain lower return. Therefore, we avoid placing too much confidence and expectation on the interest rate of fixed deposits and invest only 10% out of RM100000 into FD since Malaysia’s economy outlook is marked at risk due to slower economic and business growth (Jaafar, 2021). 28 Alternative 2 Bond Cost of debt/ required rate of return: UMWH IMTN 5.220% 02.10.2026 Invest Amount= RM10000 (100 units) Coupon Rate= 5.22% Current Price (25 February 2021) = RM11076 Number of years to maturity= 5 Coupon payment= RM10000 x 5.22% = RM522 Current Yield= Annual Coupon payment ÷ Current Price = RM522 ÷ RM11076 = 4.71% πππ’πππ ππππππ‘ + πΉπ’π‘π’ππ π£πππ’π − ππππππ‘ π£πππ’π π Yield to maturity (YTM) = πΉπ’π‘π’ππ π£πππ’π + ππππ πππ‘ π£πππ’π 2 π π522 + π π10000 − π π11076 5 = π π10000 + π π11076 2 = 0.0291/ 2.91% βΈ« The required rate of return on bond is approximately 2.91%. 29 Present value of Bond (Bo) = = π π x [1− (1+r)-n] + F/ (1+r) n 261 0.01455 x [1− (1.01455)-10] + 10000/ (1.01455)10 = 2412.74+ 8654.97 = RM11067.71 βΈ«The bond will sell for RM11067.71today that is higher than par value of RM10000. 30 BGSM MGMT IMTN 5.600% 27.12.2023 - ISSUE NO 9 Invest Amount= RM10000 (100 units) Coupon Rate= 5.60% Current Price (25 February 2021) = RM10812 Number of years to maturity= 2 Coupon payment= RM10000 x 5.6% = RM560 Current Yield= Annual Coupon payment ÷ Current Price = RM560 ÷ RM10812 = 0.0518/ 5.18% π π560 + π π10000 − π π10812 2 Yield to maturity (YTM) = π π10000 + π π10812 2 = 0.0148/ 1.48% βΈ« The required rate of return on bond is 1.48% Present value of Bond (Bo) = = π π x [1− (1+r)-n] + F/ (1+r) n 280 0.0074 x [1− (1.00074)-4] + 10000/ (1.0074)4 = 1099.58+ 9709.4 = RM10808.98 βΈ«The bond will sell for RM10808.98 today that is higher than face value of RM10000. 31 MMC CORP IMTN 5.700% 24.03.2028 Invest Amount= RM20000 (200 units) Coupon Rate= 5.70% Current Price (25 February 2021) = RM20999 Number of years to maturity= 7 Coupon payment= RM20000 x 5.7% = RM1140 Current Yield= Annual Coupon payment ÷ Current Price = RM1140 ÷ RM20999 = 0.0543 / 5.43% π π1140 + Yield to maturity (YTM) = π π20000 − π π20999 7 π π20000 + π π20999 2 = 0.0486/ 4.86% βΈ« The required rate of return on bond is 4.86%. Present value of Bond (Bo) = = π π x [1− (1+r)-n] + F/ (1+r) n 570 0.0243 x [1− (1.0243)-14] + 20000/ (1.0243)14 = 6696.24+ 14290.57 = RM20986.81 βΈ«The bond will sell for RM20986.81 today that is higher than par value of RM20000. 32 The following table are YTM calculation using Excel: 33 The following are Present value of Bond calculation using Excel PV (Present value) function: Bond 1: *Excel will produce negative value for bond price Bond 2: *Excel will produce negative value for bond price 34 Bond 3: *Excel will produce negative value for bond price In essence, the YTM of all three bonds above are below the bonds’ coupon interest rate and its current yield which measures the bonds’ coupon payment relative its current price. The bonds will sell at premium since three bonds’ market values is above its face value i.e. the par value. YTM measures both the value of the coupon payment that the investor receives and the loss that bondholder incurs upon maturity. Hence, when the bond sells at a premium, its YTM is below its current yield as the YTM takes into account that the bondholder will receive just RM10000 at maturity, which represent a loss relative to the bond’s current market price. Coupon rate> Current yield>YTM= Bond sells at premium 35 Alternative 2 Stock (Equities) We allocate RM5000 for stocks which is 50% out of RM100000 that we have. We did a complete search for each of the company that we wish to invest in. The following shows four stocks from four companies regarding of their financial performance and profitability: Top Glove Corporation 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 Share price (RM) 26.28 4.75 11.14 5.61 4.25 Dividend (cent) 8.5 1.33 1.67 1.43 1.43 Price 119.5 95.0 190.0 112.2 85.0 28.9 14.4 18.1 16.3 19.3 22.0 5.0 6.0 5.0 5.0 6190883 2554141 2398396 2072791 1875697 1788830 367546 433206 338888 362439 Berhad /Earning ratio ROE (Return on Equity (%) EPS (Earning per share) (cent) Total Equity RM (‘000) Profit after tax RM (‘000) Hong Leong Financial 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 Share price (RM) 14.68 16.8 18 18.54 13.10 Dividend (cent) 38.0 38.0 40.0 42.0 38.0 Price 11.1 12.8 10.8 11.0 8.0 9.6 9.4 11.1 10.4 9.3 132.2 131.8 166.8 167.8 163.6 31052751 237882611 229317551 218962403 210474534 2064 2317 2895 2914 2779 Group (HLFG) /Earning ratio ROE (Return on Equity (%) EPS (Earning per share) (cent) Total Equity RM (‘000) Profit after tax RM(‘000) 36 Kuala Lumpur Kepong 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 Share price (RM) 22.8 23.08 24.96 24.56 23.98 Dividend (cent) 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 Price 31.7 39.8 43.6 26.0 16.0 7.1 6.0 5.5 8.7 15.2 72.0 58.0 57.2 94.4 149.5 11804100 11286655 12045548 12440042 11288026 857049 650733 660317 1066876 1683140 Hai-O Enterprise Berhad 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 Share price (RM) 1.72 2.57 4.96 3.81 2.54 Dividend (cent) 10.0 13.0 20.0 16.0 15.0 Price 15.33 15.64 19.93 18.55 20.37 10.9 15.4 23.5 20.9 14.1 11.22 16.43 24.88 20.54 12.47 310190 320674 318923 296169 268981 32319 47447 72521 59415 36565 Berhad (KLK) /Earning ratio ROE (Return on Equity (%) EPS (Earning per share) (cent) Total Equity RM (‘000) Profit after tax RM (‘000) /Earning ratio ROE (Return on Equity (%) EPS (Earning per share) (cent) Total Equity RM (‘000) Profit after tax RM (‘000) The growth rate of dividend of these four stocks can be found by using formula: πΉπn ^1/n ) ππ r= ( −1 37 However, we use excel to get a more accurate dividend growth rate by using the Excel RATE function. This table show the dividend growth rate we got using Excel RATE function: Company Dividend Growth rate % Top Glove Corporation Berhad 56.14 Kuala Lumpur Kepong Berhad (KLK) 0.00 Hong Leong Financial Group (HLFG) 0.00 Hai-O Enterprise Group -9.64 38 5.21 Cost of common stock After successfully getting the dividend growth rate% (g), the required return of common stocks i.e. the cost of common stock can be calculated by using the formula: *Price of all stocks (P0) are based on 25 February 2021 Top Glove Corporation Berhad D1= D0 x (1+ g) = RM 0.085 x (1+ 0.5614) = RM0.13 rs = π π0.13 π π5.3 + 0.5614 = 0.5859 / 58.59% Hong Leong Financial Group (HLFG) D1= RM0.38 x (1) = RM0.38 π π0.38 rs = π π16.2 + 0 = 0.0235 / 2.35% 39 Kuala Lumpur Kepong Berhad (KLK) D1= RM0.5 x (1) =RM0.5 rs = π π0.5 π π23.28 +0 = 0.0215 / 2.15% Hai-O Enterprise Berhad D1= RM0.1 x (1−0.0964) =RM0.09036 rs = π π0.09036 π π2.18 −0.0964 = −0.055/ −5.5% 40 Top Glove Corporation Berhad: (From SimpleWall) The share price of Top glove Corp Berhad on 25 February is RM5.3 The group experienced spiked in growth in terms of sales due to the surging Covid-19 pandemic last year. However, stock prices declined from RM26.08 to RM8.37 within just a day in September 3, 2020 due to the share buyback schemes conducted by the company itself. The announcement of special dividend of 20% by the group itself failed to stop the price drop and partly is due to the fact that vaccines are widely available now and thus the glove demand will decrease (Mahalingam, 2021). We chose to put only 5% of the fund to invest in Top Glove stocks because the dividend paid is the lowest among the other three stocks. Shareholder only received 8.5 cents per share and the dividend paid in the past few years shown were even lower. Top Glove received approval from shareholders for the bonus share issues implied that shareholder who is entitled to receive Top Glove bonus issue shares is allowed to sell any of the Top Glove’s shares arising from the bonus issue beginning at September 3, 2020 (Lim, 2020). However, this may result in diluting the EPS proportionally. The lower EPS indicates for every unit share being held, shareholders earned merely 22 cents in 2020. This is indeed not a very attractive return that we expected to get from the largest glove producers in the world. However, we still possess hope on Top Glove shares as it is still performing well as compared to its competitors. 41 Hong Leong Financial Group (HLFG) (From SimpleWall) Hong Leong Financial Group (HLFG) has been the top three gainer in Bursa Malaysia since last week and its latest share price is RM16.2 on 25 February. It has achieved higher contributions from its stockbroking divisions, insurance, investment banking where its net profit for fourth quarter rose to about RM525 million (Jaafar, 2020). The movement of share price is less volatile and has been stable over the past year as well. The increase in share price is partly due to excellent financial achievement with increment net profits and revenue of approximate RM31 million and RM14 million respectively in fourth quarter 2020. Shareholders of HLFG earned RM1.32 for each unit of shares being hold and the group has been maintaining its EPS at least RM1 which is the highest among the stocks chose. The return on equity increased 2% from year 2019 to 2020. The higher the return on common equity indicates higher return earned on common stockholder’s investment in the company where the company earned 0.096 ringgit for each ringgit of common stock equity or in another word, for 1 ringgit of common stock equity it contributes to 0.096 ringgit’s profit. We placed higher expectation on the HLFG because it exceeded the Malaysia Banks industry which returned 3.4% over the past year and therefore is considered top notch company in financial sectors. It is suitable for long term investment and is a good choice for risk seeking 42 investors looking for higher return while still being at the safe side. Therefore we decided to put RM30000 funds into investing HLFG stocks. 43 Kuala Lumpur Kepong Berhad (KLK) (From SimpleWall) Each share of KLK on 25 February 2021 is RM23.28. KLK has paid consistent dividend to its shareholders for the past five years at RM0.50 per share. Although there the dividend growth rate is zero, the earning per share (EPS) has increased to RM0.72 from RM0.58, a total increased of RM0.14 due to the decrease in share prices. The increase in selling prices of crude palm oil (CPO) and palm kernel (PK) has positive impact on the company’s profits with an increase of 52.5%, higher than last year (Wong, 2020). Rather than solely depend on producing CPO and PK, KLK took a big step venturing into medical gloves to create a portfolio which has high return of asset and equity. It is forecasted its expansion into medical gloves could eventually raise the net profits for the company by range between 4%-7% for the financial year ending September 2022 (Tan, 2021). Besides, KLK plans to increase capacity through a joint venture project with IJM Plantation Berhad to construct a new refinery, kernel crushing plants and jetty in Kalimantan in order to speed up its production. When examine under SWOT analysis, the group seemed to be in a favourable situation where the opportunity is arising as the increase in demand of CPO drives the commodity prices up and thus benefiting the group with higher profits (Kaur, 2021). Therefore, we decided to invest RM10000 in KLK shares with all sustainable dividends paid with nearly zero dividend volatility. 44 Hai-O Enterprise Berhad (From SimpleWall) Hai-O Enterprise Berhad’s share prices on 25 February is RM2.18 per share. The dividend volatility of the group has been unstable from the past five years but it is still in acceptable range since its dividend has not shrunk linearly at 8.5% per annum (Simply Wall St, 2021). The company has paid out more than 50% of its profits as dividends to the shareholders in 2020. The company has the commitment to pay dividend to maximize shareholders’ wealth although the dividends decreased from RM0.13 to RM0.10 per share. The EPS is forecasted to experience growth in the forth-coming years. Listing status of Hai-O Enterprise Berhad will be taken over by Beshom Holdings Berhad where Beshom will concentrate on marketing and manufacturing property whereas Hai-O will focus on wholesale as well as retail business (Chin, 2021). This organized structure is considered excellent for the group as they can put 100% effort in increasing the business growth and sales. Although the EPS, ROE, and profits after tax of the group decreases, investors are still looking forward that Hai-O will back on its track with increase in revenue as what it had achieved in 2018 with the highest EPS and dividends paid. Thus, we chose to Hai-O stocks as part of our portfolio by investing RM5000 to buy the shares although the required return will become negative when calculated. 45 Conclusion WACC Portfolio investment Required Weightage WACC return (%) Fixed deposit 2.5 0.10 0.002500 Bond-UMWH IMTN 5.220% 02.10.2026 2.91 0.10 0.002910 5.600% 1.48 0.10 0.001480 Bond- MMC CORP IMTN 5.700% 24.03.2028 4.86 0.20 0.009720 Stock- Top Glove Corporation Berhad 58.59 0.05 0.029795 Stock- Hong Leong Financial Group 2.35 0.30 0.007050 Stock- Kuala Lumpur Kepong Berhad 2.15 0.10 0.002150 Stock- Hai-O Enterprise Berhad -5.50 0.05 -0.00275 Bond- BGSM MGMT IMTN 27.12.2023 - ISSUE NO 9 Total WACC 0.052855 With RM100000 funds, we expected the required return annually is 5.2855% by investing in alternative 1 and 2 which are fixed deposit, bonds and stocks. 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Retrieved from https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/klk-netprofit-19-4q-sees-better-profit-fy21 49 BA208 Assignment (Jan-April) ORIGINALITY REPORT 8 % SIMILARITY INDEX 7% INTERNET SOURCES 1% PUBLICATIONS 4% STUDENT PAPERS PRIMARY SOURCES 1 epdf.pub 1% 2 docplayer.net 1% 3 www.theedgemarkets.com 1% 4 www.danajamin.com 1% Submitted to Colorado Technical University Online 1% 5 Internet Source Internet Source Internet Source Internet Source Student Paper 6 Submitted to Open University Malaysia <1 % 7 Submitted to Webster University <1 % 8 silo.pub <1 % 9 www.hlb.com.my <1 % Student Paper Student Paper Internet Source Internet Source <1 % 10 opcionesbinariassancarlosdebariloche.blogspot.com 11 Submitted to RMIT University <1 % Submitted to University of Northumbria at Newcastle <1 % 13 www.htsdc.org <1 % 14 www.colonialο¬rststate.com.au <1 % 15 debubglobalbank.com <1 % 16 www.econstor.eu <1 % 17 Submitted to Universiti Malaysia Sarawak <1 % 18 Submitted to University of East London <1 % 19 Submitted to Strathmore University <1 % 20 whatis.techtarget.com <1 % 21 Submitted to TAR University College 12 Internet Source Student Paper Student Paper Internet Source Internet Source Internet Source Internet Source Student Paper Student Paper Student Paper Internet Source Student Paper <1 % 22 www.khor-reports.com <1 % 23 Submitted to Oxford Brookes University <1 % Zabihollah Rezaee. "Financial Services Firms", Wiley, 2011 <1 % 25 www.bixmalaysia.com <1 % 26 lifedividend.biz <1 % 27 ο¬nancenumericals.blogspot.com <1 % 28 www.thesundaily.my <1 % Moorad Choudhry. "Fixed Income Securities and Derivatives Handbook", Wiley, 2010 <1 % www.coursehero.com <1 % 24 Internet Source Student Paper Publication 29 Internet Source Internet Source Internet Source Internet Source Publication 30 Internet Source