THE CHALLENGE OF THE
ST
21 CENTURY
CREATING A PARADIGM SHIFT IN THE
GLOBAL WAR
VS
APATHY, IGNORANCE, DISCIPLINARY
BOUNDARIES, AND UNWISE DECISIONS
Walter Hays, Global Alliance for
Disaster Reduction, University of
North Carolina, USA
THE CHALLENGE OF THE
21ST CENTURY
• Protecting and
preserving the
PEOPLE and
COMMUNITIES
of the “Blue
(water) Planet.
A SNAPHOT OF OUR WORLD
• 6.6 billion people, and growing while…
• Living and competing in an
interconnected global economy,
• Producing $60 trillion of products each
year, and
• Facing many kinds of complex
disasters every year that are related to
the 3 S’s, 5E’s, and 1H.
THE 3 S’s
• SAFETY (from
recurring natural
hazards)
• SECURITY
• SUSTAINABILITY
THE FIVE E’s
•
•
•
•
•
ECONOMY
ENERGY
ENVIRONMENT
ECOLOGY
EDUCATION
THE 1 H
• HEALTH CARE
A DISASTER is ----- the set of failures that occur when
three continuums: 1) people, 2)
community (i.e., a set of habitats,
livelihoods, and social constructs),
and 3) recurring events (e.g., floods,
earthquakes, ...,) intersect at a point in
space and time, when and where the
people and community are not ready.
THE THREE CONTINUUMS OF
EVERY DISASTER
• PEOPLE
• COMMUNITY
• RECURRING EVENTS
(AKA Natural Hazards, which are
proof of a DYNAMIC EARTH)
FOUR UNIVERSAL WEAK-LINKS
CAUSE DISASTERS
• IGNORANCE
• APATHY
• DISCIPLINARY
BOUNDARIES
• UNWISE DECISIONS
LIKELY CAUSES OF COMPLEX
DISASTERS DURING THE 21ST
CENTURY
• Poverty
• Chronic hunger
• Health care needs
• Increasing risk of pandemic disease
• Large-scale migration of people
• Endangered plant and animal life
• Conflict and terrorism
LIKELY CAUSES OF COMPLEX
DISASTERS DURING THE 21ST
CENTURY
• Increasing morbidity, mortality,
homelessness, and economic losses from
recurring natural hazards
• Threats related to global climate change
• Environmental degradation and pollution of
air, water, and soil
• Endangerment and extinction of plant and
animal life
OUR POSSIBLE “OH NO!” LEGACY
OF THE 21ST CENTURY
Unless we design and implement a
realistic new strategy for disaster
prevention, OUR problems may grow
worse so rapidly that we reach many
“tipping points,” before we realize it
and share in an unnecessary and
irreversible reduction in the quality
of life on Planet Earth.
A SOLUTION SET: THE
FRAMEWORK OF SUSTAINABILITY
• To anticipate and plan for the full
spectrum of what can happen
• To build capacity at the community
level for monitoring, mitigation, and
adaptation
• To build equity in all sectors of the
community
• To inform, educate, and train
WE KNOW WHAT TO DO AND HOW
TO DO IT, --- SO, LET’S DO IT!
• All of us working strategically can
implement a realistic set of
scientific, technical, and political
solutions--- within OUR
administrative, legal, and economic
constraints, --- and reach the goal of
community sustainability.
THE ART AND SCIENCE OF
CREATING A PARADIGM
SHIFT FOR COMMUNITY
SUSTAINABILITY
TOWARDS:
INTERNATIONAL PARTNERSHIPS
 INTEGRATION OF SCIENCE AND
PUBLIC POLICY
MITIGATION, MONITORING, AND
ADAPTATION
THINKING OUT OF OUR BOXES
WILL FACILITATE
ENLIGHTENMENT AND
ENABLEMENT
AND CAUSE A PARADIGM SHIFT
FOR PROFESSIONALS TO WORK
STRATEGICALLY ON LOCAL,
REGIONAL AND GLOBAL SCALES.
LOCAL AND REGIONAL
GOVERNMENTS
WILL HAVE THE CAPACITY TO
MONITOR, MITIGATE AND ADAPT
TO SOCIETAL PROBLEMS POSED
BY COMPLEX GLOBAL DISASTERS
ON LOCAL, REGIONAL, AND
GLOBAL SCALES
TOWARDS COMMUNITY SUSTAINABILITY
TURNING POINTS: Partnerships for Monitoring, Mitigation, and
Adaptation (MMA) on local and regional scales
THE KNOWLEDGE BASE
Real and Near- Real Time
Monitoring/Communication
Vulnerability and Risk
Characterization
Best Practices for Mitigation
and Adaptation
CAPACITY BUILDING
CONTINUING EDUCATION
Seek out, Enlighten, and
Enable “Partnerships”
Enlighten Communities on
Their Risks
Transfer Ownership of the
Knowledge Base
Build Strategic Equity
Through “MMA” Scenarios
Close Gaps in Knowledge
and Implementation
Engage Partners in MMA
Learning Experiences
Cause & Effect Relationships
Transfer Ownership of
Emerging Technologies
Multiply “Partnerships” by
Regioal/global Twinning
Anticipatory Actions for all
Events and Situations
Move Towards A Disaster
Intelligent Community
Update Knowledge Bases
After Each MMA Scenario
Situation Data Bases
Interfaces with all Real- and
Near Real-Time Sources
Gateways to a Deeper
Understanding
THE GLOBAL AGENDA: MONITORING,
MITIGATION, AND ADAPTATION (MMA)
EXPERIENCES WITH
PREPAREDNESS
EXPERIENCES WITH
MONITORING AND WARNING
PARTNERSHIPS
(2011 AND BEYOND)
EXPERIENCES WITH
DISASTER SCENARIO
PLANNING
EXPERIENCES WITH
RECOVERY AND
RECONSTRUCTION
EXPERIENCES WITH
PREVENTION, MITIGATION,
AND ADAPTATION
FACTORS THAT FACILITATE A
PARADIGM SHIFT
• PUBLIC AWARENESS OF EACH PROBLEM AND
THE BENEFIT/COSTS OF ITS SOLUTION SET.
• THE COMMON AGENDA FOR PARTNERSHIPS
THROUGHOUT THE WORLD
• INCENTIVES FOR POLITICAL LEADERS AND
SCIENTISTS TO DEVISE AND IMPLEMENT
PUBLIC POLICIES AND BEST PRACTICES FOR
MONITORING, MITIGATION, AND ADAPTATION.
CHANGES BASED ON A LARGER
SOCIAL CONSTRUCT OF THE
ISSUES
POLICY CHANGE 1: FOCUS ON THE
NATURE AND APPROPRIATENESS OF
MOVING FROM THINKING TO ACTIONS
BY GLOBAL PARTNERS AND THE WAYS
TO ENLIST SUPPORT AND RESOURCES
FOR THE KINDS OF PARADIGM SHIFTS
(ACTIONS) THAT ARE NEEDED.
CHANGES BASED ON A LARGER
SOCIAL CONSTRUCT OF THE
ISSUES
POLICY CHANGE 2: FOSTER
CHANGE BY NTEGRATING THE BEST
POLICIES AND PRACTICES FOR
MONITORING, MITIGATION, AND
ADAPTATION BASED ON EXISTING
LEGAL MANDATES AND ASSETS.
CHANGES BASED ON A LARGER
SOCIAL CONSTRUCT OF THE
ISSUES
POLICY CHANGE 3: CREATE, ADJUST,
AND REALIGN PARTNERSHIPS UNTIL
YOU CAN ACHIEVE THE KIND OF
PARADIGM SHIFT NEEDED TO SOLVE
THE PROBLEMS FACED BY EACH
LOCAL COMMUN ITY IN EVERY REGION.
SIX THINKING HATS FOR A
PARADIGM SHIFT
SIX THINKING HATS FOR A
PARADIGM SHIFT
• WHITE HAT: WHAT ARE THE
FACTS?
• YELLOW HAT: WHAT ARE THE
LOGICAL POSITIVE OUTCOMES OF
EACH ACTION?
• BLACK HAT: WHAT ARE THE
LOGICAL NEGATIVE OUTCOMES
OF EACH ACTION?
SIX THINKING HATS FOR A
PARADIGM SHIFT
• RED HAT: HOW URGENT IS EACH
ACTION?
• GREEN HAT: IS THIS A “WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY” FOR US?
• BLUE HAT: WHAT ARE THE ELEMENTS
AND TIMELINES OF OUR STRATEGIC
AND TACTICAL PLANS FOR SEIZING
THIS OPPORTUNITY?
SIX ACTION SHOES FOR A
PARADIGM SHIFT
SIX ACTION SHOES F0R A
PARADIGM SHIFT
• BROWN BROGUE: FINDING THE RIGHT
PARTNERS/PERSON FOR EACH JOB!
• WHITE SNEAKERS: A COMMISSION TO
GATHER AND ANALYZE ALL THE FACTS!
• NAVY BLUE SHOES: CREATING
STRATEGIC AND TACTICAL PLANS THAT
GIVE ALL PARTNERS A COMMON
AGENDA!
SIX ACTION SHOES F0R A
PARADIGM SHIFT
• ORANGE RUBBER GUM SHOES: DOING
WHAT IS NEEDED WHEN IT COUNTS THE
MOST!
• TAN HOUSE SHOES: HAVING A SENSE OF
URGENCY.
• PURPLE RIDING BOOTS: LEADERSHIP!
RISK ASSESSMENT
•HAZARD MAPS
•INVENTORY
•VULNERABILITY
•LOCATION
ACCEPTABLE RISK
RISK
UNACCEPTABLE RISK
ANTICIPATORY
DECISIONS
DATA BASES
AND INFORMATION
YOUR
COMMUNITY
COMMUNITY
SUSTAINABILITY
HAZARDS:
GROUND SHAKING
GROUND FAILURE
SURFACE FAULTING
TECTONIC DEFORMATION
TSUNAMI RUN UP
AFTERSHOCKS
BEST POLICIES AND
PRACTICES FOR:
•MONITORING
•MITIGATION
•ADAPTATION
INTERACTIONS THAT EXPOSE
FRAGILITIES
A Restless
Earth—The Cause
of Natural
Phenomena that
interact with
PEOPLE and
COMMUNITIES
Earthquakes
Tsunamis
Volcanic
eruptions
Landslides
INTERACTIONS THAT EXPOSE
FRAGILITIES
Extreme
Tropical
Storms---Storms
Natural
Hurricanes
Phenomena that Typhoons
interact with
Tornadoes
PEOPLE and
COMMUNITIES Nor’easters
INTERACTIONS THAT CAN
INCREASE FRAGILITIES
Build
Actions of a
community---To Economic
Development
increase
“Quality of Life” Create Land
Control Water
Expand Cities
Facilitate
Transportation
INTERACTIONS THAT CAN
INCREASE FRAGILITIES
Mankind’s
Deforestation
Actions--- can
Pollution
have expected
Conflict
and unexpected
consequences
INTERACTIONS THAT CAN
INCREASE FRAGILITIES
A Warming
World ---with
its spectrum
of natural and
unnatural
causes
Increasing
Temperatures
Diminishing
Polar Ice
Shrinking
Glaciers
Rising Sea Level