Home control work Consider a virtual portfolio. Your portfolio consists of two assets: I and II. These assets are characterized by the following parameters Asset I Total value of portfolio, $ mln Volatility of an asset, annual Correlation coefficient Expected return, annual Asset II 10 0,04 0,12 0,23 0,06 0,15 1) Write down a covariance matrix 𝜎1 2 𝜎1,2 0,042 𝜎1,2 = [ ] [ ] 𝜎2,1 0,12 𝜎2,1 𝜎2 2 𝜎1,2 = 𝜎2,1 = 𝜎1 × 𝜎2 × 𝜌 = 0,04 × 0,12 × 0,23 = 0,0011; 0,042 [ 𝜎2,1 𝜎1,2 0,0016 0,0011 ] ]=[ 0,0011 0,0144 0,12 x1 , where x1 and x2 are x 2 2) Determine the vector of initial investments x investments in the Asset I an Asset II correspondingly. To obtain minimal level of risk, we can find initial investment in the following way: 𝑥1 = 𝑊1 × 𝑊; 𝑥2 = 𝑊2 × 𝑊 𝑊1 = 𝜎1 2 −𝜎1 𝜎2 𝜌 𝜎1 2 +𝜎2 2 −2𝜎1 𝜎2 𝜌 ; 𝑊2 = 1 − 𝑊1 𝜎1 2 − 𝜎1 𝜎2 𝜌 𝑊1 = 2 ; 𝑊2 = 1 − 𝑊1 𝜎1 + 𝜎2 2 − 2𝜎1 𝜎2 𝜌 0,042 − 0,04 × 0,12 × 0,23 𝑊1 = = 0,036 ; 0,042 + 0,122 − 2 × 0,04 × 0,12 × 0,23 𝑊2 = 1 − 0,036 = 0,964 𝑥1 = $0,36 𝑚𝑙𝑛 ; 𝑥2 = $9,64 𝑚𝑙𝑛 3) Calculate the portfolio variance p W as a product xT x 2 𝑥⃗ ∑ 𝑥⃗ = [𝑥1 𝑇 2 𝜎1 2 𝑥2 ] [ 𝜎2,1 𝜎1,2 𝑥1 ] [ ]; 𝜎2 2 𝑥2 0,042 0,0011 0,36 𝑥⃗ 𝑇 ∑ 𝑥⃗ = [0,36 9,64] [ ]; ][ 0,0011 0,122 9,64 0,000576 + 0,010604 [0,36 9,64] [ ] = $0,0040248 𝑚𝑙𝑛 + $1,34200368 𝑚𝑙𝑛 0,000396 + 0,138816 = 1,346028 𝑚𝑙𝑛 Volatility is √1,346028 = $1,1602 mln If 𝛼 = 1,65 , than: 𝑃𝑜𝑟𝑡𝑓𝑜𝑙𝑖𝑜 𝑉𝐴𝑅 = 𝛼 × √𝑥⃗ 𝑇 ∑ 𝑥⃗ = 1,65 × 1,1602 = $1,9143 𝑚𝑙𝑛 4) Calculate portfolio VAR (diversified) 2 𝐷𝑖𝑣𝑉𝐴𝑅𝑃 = 𝛼𝜎𝑝 𝑊 = 1,65√𝑤1 2 𝜎1 2 + 𝑤2 2 𝜎2 + 2𝑤1 𝑤2 𝜎1 𝜎2 𝜌 = 1,65 × 0,11602 × 10 = $1,9143 𝑚𝑙𝑛 5) Calculate the sum of two assets’ VARs (undiversified VAR for portfolio) 𝑉𝐴𝑅1 1,65 × 0,04 × 0,36 $0,0238 𝑚𝑙𝑛 [ ]=[ ]=[ ] 𝑉𝐴𝑅2 1,65 × 0,12 × 9,64 $1,9087 𝑚𝑙𝑛 Undiversified VAR = $1,9325 mln 6) Calculate vector of Betas as W 𝛽=𝑊× x xT x ∑ 𝑥⃗ 1 0,01118 10 × 0,0083 0,0831 = 10 × [ ] × = [ ] = [ ] 0,139212 10 × 0,1034 1,0342 𝑥⃗ 𝑇 ∑ 𝑥⃗ 1,346028 7) Now you can see, which portfolio position should be increased and which should be decreased to improve your portfolio risk characteristics. Your aim is to create a portfolio with equal betas for both components – this portfolio will have the least VAR. Use Excel to carry out few steps of optimization to obtain components’ betas, different no more than in the second decimal digit. 8) Present your results in form of the following Table 1. Risk-minimizing position Risk-minimizing position Asset I II Total Diversified VAR Undiversified VAR Standard deviation Original position 3,6% 96,4% 100% $1,9143 mln $1,9325 mln $1,1602 mln Beta 0,0831 1,0342 Final position, % 96,4% 36% 100% $0,6563 mln $0,7075 mln $0,3978 mln Beta 0,99 0,99 9) Now take into account both risks and returns of your portfolio. That means you Ep should maximize the Sharpe ratio SR p for your portfolio. In the point of p optimum the ratio Ei i for both portfolio components should be equal to each other. Start from the Risk-minimizing position and carry out few steps of optimization to obtain Sharpe ratios different no more than in the second decimal digit. In the point of optimum calculate the diversified VAR, expected return and Sharpe ratio for your final portfolio. 10) Present your results in form of the following Table 2. Risk and returnoptimizing position Risk and return-optimizing position Asset Expected return Original position, % Beta 3,6% 96,4% 100 $1,9143 mln Ei I II Total Diversified VAR Standard deviation Expected return for portfolio Sharpe ratio for portfolio 0,06 0,15 $1,1602 mln 3,6%*0,06+ 96,4%*0,15 =0,1468 0,1265 i Ratio Ei i Final position, % Beta 0,0831 1,0342 0,7220 0,1450 80,1% 19,9% 100 0,77 1,9226 i Ratio Ei i 0,078 0,078 $0,7284 mln $0,4414 mln 80,1%*0,06+ 19,9%*0,15= 0,0779 0,1765 In optimal portfolio, the ratio of all expected returns to marginal VARs or betas must be equal. Ei i must be constant.