Adjusted Research Proposal Research Title: ASSESSMENT OF THE IMPLEMENTATION OF 3R-RELATED POLICIES FOR SUSTAINABLE SOLID WASTE MANAGEMENT IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICAN CITIES: a case study of Lagos, Nigeria. Research student Muyiwa Lawrence Adedara Research Supervisor Prof. Dr. Hans-Rudolf Bork Faculty of Mathematics & Natural Sciences Department of Geography Institute for Ecosystem Research, University of Kiel, Germany. 1.0 Background The state of solid waste management across the sub-Sahara and the rest of Africa is characterised by non-sanitary disposal in landfills and the absence of active efforts in favour of reuse, recycling and recovery of useful materials prior to disposal (Henry et al., 2006, Mwesigye et al. 2009, Mohammed et al. 2013 in UNEP, 2018). Urbanization, economic development and population growth are interrelated with respect to the increasing volume of solid waste in cities (Guerreo et al., 2013). The World Bank projected that, aggregate figures of waste generation in cities across the globe will increase by 70% from 2.01 billion tonnes (0.74kg/capita/day) in 2016 to 3.40 billion tonnes (1.25kg/capita/day) in 2050 (Kaza et al., 2018). The projection in 2010, six (6) years earlier was 585 million tonnes based on an approximate yearly increase of 6% (Agamuthu et al., 2009) thus underscoring the urgent need to design sustainable systems of managing wastes, more importantly in developing countries (Mukhtar et al., 2016) where they are still faced with a number of challenges (namely, improper disposal methods, infrastructure deficit, absence of effective legislation, etc) with respect to waste management (Diaz, 2011). The waste management hierarchy guideline shortened as, “reduce, reuse and recycle” (the 3Rs) has become an internationally accepted concept that ranks waste management options based on what is best for the environment and its valuable resources (Gertsakis & Lewis, 2013; Defra, 2011). The inverted pyramid-shaped ideology emphasizes waste prevention / avoidance at source ahead of recycling, with disposal in landfill or incineration without energy recovery, as the lease desirable option to be considered (Perket, 2010; European Commission, 2008). Some studies (Ferrari et al., 2016; Sakai et al., 2011) have proposed that, for countries to manage waste effectively, there should be a reference to the application of the waste hierarchy, with due consideration given to what is locally possible as against direct technology transfer. In developed regions of the world where the guideline has been successfully applied, an assessment of what works well for the protection of the environment is first carried out within the ambits of international best practice and subsequently, a legal framework that incorporates the philosophy of the guideline is prepared and adopted as a waste management policy (Sakai, et al., 1996). For example, in the European Union, the Waste Framework Directive, Directive 2008/98/EC (European Commission, 2008) sets out the principles guiding waste management among member states while each state in turn, formulates its own policy based on the provisions in the framework. Similarly, in Australia, the Waste Avoidance and Resource Recovery Act 2001 regulates waste management (Waste Authority, 2013) while the US’ Resource Conservation and Recovery Act is the legal framework for the management of both hazardous and non-hazardous solid waste (EPA, 1976) and in Canada, the Canadian Environmental Protection Act, 1999 is clear on pollution prevention and waste management with vivid statements on waste reduction, reuse and recycling (Government of Canada, 2019). Where the guideline is fully applied, benefits such as reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, stimulation of the development of green technologies, promotion of resource efficiency and many more are seen to accrue (Petarcic, 2016), although not without its own limitations, like its limited specification on the implementation of waste prevention and the guideline’s inability to distinguish between open-loop and closed-loop recycling, among others, which has led to a call for its improvements in the future (Ewijk & Stegemann, 2014). In the regions of the world mentioned above and as observed, at least in Germany, where recycling rate is up to 66% (Climate Action, 2017), there are no reports of indiscriminate dumping of wastes in public places. Contrariwise, Africa is still grappling with indiscriminate dumping and open burning of municipal waste (Henry et al., 2006, Mwesigye et al. 2009, Mohammed et al. 2013 in UNEP, 2018). Lagos, the largest city in the sub-Sahara (Worldatlas.com, 2019) is currently littered with heaps of municipal solid waste on road kerbs, road median and street corners constituting an eyesore daily. The Punch Newspaper (2017) reported that, the improper disposal of wastes in public places in Lagos results in perennial flooding, and more pertinently, Adedara (2018), in a field research in Lagos observed the indiscriminate dumping of solid waste on road median and drainages, leaving the city dotted with mounting heaps of uncollected municipal solid waste in public places with its concomitant health effects (see Fig 1 & 2). There are several literatures that have analyzed the problems associated with municipal solid waste management in Lagos, with various recommendations on addressing the issues identified. However, to the best of my knowledge, subsequent upon extensive literature search with respect to the study area, there has not been a critical analysis of the existing environmental laws of Lagos using text data mining techniques with a view to identify specific provisions guiding the implementation of 3R-related policies. A study of 3R-related policies in Malaysia indicated that there were gaps between existing policies on solid waste management and what exists in practice, which was ascertained through a combination of approaches including public surveys (Agamuthu, et al., 2011). This implies that, it is not enough to have policies governing the management of waste in a society, the effective implementation of such policies should be accorded attention by the relevant authorities so that gaps that could prevent the desired outcome of such policies are eliminated. The results of the study in Malaysia underscores the need to take public opinion into account when formulating environmental policies. The present situation in Lagos, where only an estimated 27%´of solid waste is collected out of the annual target volume of about 4.9 million metric tonnes, leaving 73% unaccounted for (LAWMA, 2019), raises questions on the effectiveness and sustainability of the city’s current waste management system, especially with respect to the relevance of existing policies in addressing this perennial issue. This research, therefore, will assess the implementation of the core cardinals of the waste hierarchy guideline (reduce, reuse & recycle) in tackling the perennial issue of litter across Africa’s largest city, using a combination of quantitative and field survey approaches. Bowen (2009) noted that information derived from document analysis (though a qualitative research method) can be a rich addition to the body of knowledge, especially when it is supplemented with interviews while text mining has been applied, for instance, in determining word frequencies related to solid waste management and recycling in a scientific database (Lie et al., 2018, as cited in Richter et al., 2019). 2.0 Research objectives I. Review the environmental policies of Lagos state to identify the provisions that address resource recovery, waste prevention, waste reduction, reuse and recycling. II. Identify and evaluate the factors that prompted the build-up of heaps of municipal solid waste in public places across the city of Lagos. III. Compare waste volume collected by PSP operators (private support program) in selected local council areas on Lagos mainland and Lagos Island to overall target municipal solid waste volume indicated by LAWMA (Lagos State Waste Management Authority) from 2015 to 2019 in the areas selected. This exercise would substantiate findings from objective No II. IV. Examine waste reduction trend in Lagos from 2015 to 2019, in metric tons, in the selected local council areas. V. VI. Assess waste reuse culture in the selected areas at the household and commercial level. Suggest recommendations that will catalyze value capture from waste, improve collection rate and eliminate the accumulation of refuse heaps in public places across Lagos. 3.0 Research Methodology I. Objective 1: Evaluate Lagos state policies on the environment using text mining technique. II. Objective 2: (a) Administer questionnaire survey using the systematic sampling technique on selected households and commercial premises in the study area. Analyze with SPSS software. (b) Structured Face-to-Face interview technique with LAWMA (Lagos State Waste Management Authority), the waste management regulatory organ of the Lagos state government. Analyze data with thematic analysis. (c) Focus Group Interview technique with PSP operators (private waste collectors engaged by the Lagos state government) to evaluate problems associated with collection in assigned areas that have resulted in the unending backlog of solid waste littering the streets of Lagos. Group members from Lagos Island and Lagos Mainland will be picked by systematic sampling. Carry out content analysis and apply GIS techniques to analyze the collection system in relation to transportation routes to determine whether their operational methodology meets the waste volume demand in the assigned zones. ‘a to c’ above are to objectively identify the probable factors responsible for the build-up of heaps of uncollected MSW from the stakeholders. (d) Identify locations where there are waste heaps in the selected neighborhoods, determine the area covered by the heaps with a GPS and relate to road/street width obstructed from public use. Represent these locations on a map of the area using GIS techniques. Subsequently, use multiple linear regression to show the relationship between areas covered by heaps of refuse with the factors responsible for the build-up. III. Objective 3: Graphical illustration of total waste volume collected by PSPs in the selected areas of Lagos mainland & Lagos Island in relation to municipal solid waste targeted for collection by LAWMA for each year, spread over a 5-year period. Findings here will give insight on the efficiency of the current waste collection apparatus. IV. Objective 4: Analyze waste reduction trend using simple linear regression to describe waste volume increase or decrease over a 5 -year period. This will assist in making inferences about the waste reduction efforts of the city government. V. Objective 5: Administer a questionnaire survey focused on assessing waste reuse culture of households and operators of commercial premises. Responses would be analyzed using content analysis. 4.0 Proposed Mode of Research Combination of fieldwork and archival / library study. 5.0 Expected Research Contribution Given that there is presently no traceable text mining analysis of the environmental policies of the Lagos state government, it is believed that the results derived from such analysis would prove useful for policy makers and other stakeholders in the environment in improving the state of solid waste management in Lagos. References Adedara, M.L (2018). Assessment of the Source Separation of Household Solid Wastes in Nigeria: a case study of Alimosho Local Government Area, Lagos (Unpublished master’s thesis). University of Kiel, Germany. Agamuthu, P., Fauziah, S.H. (2009). Evolution of Solid Waste Management in Malaysia: Impacts and Implications of the Solid Waste Bill, 2007. Journal of Material Cycles & Waste Management, 1(2), 96-103. doi: 10.1007/s10163-008-0231-3. Agamuthu, P., Chenayah, S., Hamid, F.S., Victor, D. 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