See discussions, stats, and author profiles for this publication at: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/266617560 Fast Prediction of Fixed Offshore Jacket Platforms Response to Random Wave Loads Conference Paper · June 2011 CITATIONS READS 0 141 3 authors: Seyed Mehdi Enderami M. Zeinoddini Khaje Nasir Toosi University of Technology Khaje Nasir Toosi University of Technology 4 PUBLICATIONS 3 CITATIONS 94 PUBLICATIONS 444 CITATIONS SEE PROFILE SEE PROFILE Siamak Kakasoltani 4 PUBLICATIONS 3 CITATIONS SEE PROFILE All in-text references underlined in blue are linked to publications on ResearchGate, letting you access and read them immediately. Available from: Seyed Mehdi Enderami Retrieved on: 11 October 2016 Proceedings of the ASME 30th International Conference on Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engineering OMAE2011 June 19-24, 2011, Rotterdam, The Netherlands OMAE2011-50251 Fast Prediction of Fixed Offshore Jacket Platforms Response to Random Wave Loads S.M.Enderami M.Zeinoddini Faculty of Civil Engineering, KNToosi University of Technology, Tehran, Iran E-mail: s.m.enderami@gmail.com Faculty of Civil Engineering, KNToosi University of Technology, Tehran, Iran E-mail: zeinoddini@kntu.ac.ir S.Kakasoltani Faculty of Civil Engineering, KNToosi University of Technology, Tehran, Iran E-mail: siamak.kakasoltani@gmail.com INTRODUCTION From a design point of view, wave loads on a fixed offshore platform can be calculated with incorporating Morrison equation to regular wave models, such as fifth-order Stokes wave (in deep water) and stream function (in shallow water). While this approach is potentially able to consider the nonlinearity of the wave action, it falls short to take into account the randomness and irregular nature of the sea level changes. In fact, in a dynamic analyses assumptions that all the wave energy is concentrated in a specific frequency, may well result in under predicting the structural response to wave actions. A direct time domain dynamic analysis using irregular wave time series, on the other hand, is the most comprehensive solution for the wave structure interactions. It is however, computationally expensive and time consuming. Interpretation of results from such a long duration analysis, considering abundant output data, will be troublesome. Hence, a number of researchers tried to develop short time histories of the water surface fluctuations, which do not abide by a fixed frequency but well represent the desirable maximum crest height. Such an irregular short duration wave has to be able to provide load or response results in the structure close to those from long-term irregular wave simulations. Lindgren [1,2] is the first person who studied the characteristics of a Gaussian sea state, near a local maximum (e.g. the highest wave crest). During the years 19811982, Boccotti [3, 4] presented the first formulation of the QD theory (Quasi-Deterministic) based on linear random waves. The QD theory provides of necessary and sufficient conditions for the occurrence of a very large wave at a certain place and ABSTRACT The more accurate methods for estimating extreme responses of offshore structures to wave load are usually based on pseudo-random time domain simulation of the sea surface. However, they need many long duration storm inputs and are computationally very time consuming. Accordingly, many efforts have been made to introduce new, computationally efficient, theoretically optimal and simultaneously accurate methodes for simulating the random nature of the sea surface. The efficiency and the accuracy of these new methods have been continually evaluated by different researchers to advance towards a more integrated and complete approach. NewWave and Constrained NewWave models are among those techniques proposed for evaluating the response of structures under irregular waves. In the current paper two fast prediction methods for evaluating the response of a steel jacket platform subjected to irregular waves are discussed. One approach is based on incremental dynamic analysis of the structure against a series of Constrained NewWaves each with scaling wave crest heights. The results were presented in the form of upper and lower bounds for the intensity measures against damage measures. The second approach utilizes the results for the jacket structure response to a limited number of irregular 3-hours storm water surface simulations. Once again curves for the intensity measures against damage measures were produced. Results of the current study remarked that both proposed fast prediction methods can provide reasonable results for the response of the jacket structure to random type waves with significantly lower computational time. 1 Copyright © 2011 by ASME time. In fact, the first theory of QD is the same NewWave Theory that was given by Tromans et al [5], from the statistical results. This is a new method for estimating the time-domain response of offshore structures. It assumes that the sea surface elevation can be modeled as a Gaussian random process. The elevation expected at an extreme event (for example a crest) can be derived theoretically. The surface elevation around this extreme event is modeled by the statistically most probable shape associated with its occurrence. Taylor et al. [6] showed how the NewWave embedded in a stochastic seaway could be used to estimate the extreme response of a Jack-Up in a severe sea state in a robust and efficient manner. This sea state, contains expected elevation of extreme crest, is called Constrained NewWave (CNW). Many investigators have used CNW in their researches. [7], [8], [9] and [10] have applied CNW along with 3-hours simulation to a Jack-Up platform with different support conditions to derive the dynamic responses of the structure. They performed statistical analysis to predict the long term extreme responses of the Jack-Up. Also, Cassidy et al. [7] introduced a new method for fast prediction of structure responses subjected to 3-hours storm waves without many hours simulating based on CNW. Cassidy et al. [11] obtained Dynamic Amplification Factors (DAFs) for a Monopod platform using CNW method. Smith et al. [12] carried out a comprehensive study on the jackup rigs, by implemented second-order three-dimensional NewWave model. This research was focused on determining Dynamic Amplification Factors (DAF) in different environmental conditions, including three-dimensional propagation. They found satisfactory predictions from NewWave theory, for situations when the natural period of structure (Jack-up) was closed to the maximum wave period. Cassidy et al. [13] reported a prediction method for deriving responses of a barge during a float over Deck installation. They obtained the barge responses under a large number of CNW’s with different heights and wave attack directions. So, during the installation operation and under each environmental condition, barge displacements and impact energy on fenders to prevent of structural damage can be quickly calculated. These data were also used to foresee those environmental conditions which were suitable for installation operation. In the current study, the CNW method along with irregular 3-hours storm water surface simulations are used. Two methods for fast prediction of structure response are evaluated, first method is based on CNW [7] and the second method is based on 3-hours storm simulation. Wave kinematics corrections for elevations above MSL (Mean Sea Level), is one of the important subjects in wave load evaluation using CNW and linear irregular wave theories on marine structures. In this research, correction methods to irregular wave kinematics above MSL were reviewed based on available experimental results. The results have been implemented to the analysis performed to predict the fixed offshore platform response. To study the response of offshore Jacket type platforms against extreme wave loads, ABAQUS/Standard was employed. This is a general purpose finite element code, which allows for both material and geometric nonlinearities. The program allows for the modeling of wave forces on structures and allows for buoyancy, drag, and inertia loads resulting from submersion in steady current, waves, and wind. The software models the effects of wave and current on tubular members with the standard Morrison’s equation. The program includes a number of standard wave models (Airy and Stoke’s waves). In this case, a user defined wave model, has been developed to reproduce irregular wave profiles and kinematics. It calculates irregular wave kinematics in each step of analysis and incorporates the results to integration points in the structure members. For analysis performance, wave kinematics at integration points are used along Morison equations to obtain the wave forces. MODELLING OUTLINES Jacket Structure In this paper JUDY platform a jacket type offshore rig operating in the English part of the North Sea, was considered for the analysis. The steel Jacket structure provides supports for a 14,000 ton topside through six legs underside of the integrated deck. The loads are transferred from the six legged support to the integrated deck down to four main corner legs of the Jacket at the seabed. Permanent support at the seabed is provided at the four Jacket corner legs by groups or tubular steel skirt piles. These piles were driven to about 93m penetration depth and convey the deck’s weight and equipments to seabed. The Jacket structural weight, including piles, is about 15,400 ton. The water depth is 75 meter. The extreme wave height with a 50-year return period is 24 meter and has a predominant west direction. The wave period is 15.7 sec. The extreme current for 50-year return period on MSL is 1.24 m/sec and on seabed is 0.79 m/sec [15]. Around 10 beam elements type Pipe31 were used for each Jacket members. This element is applicable for tubular sections and can be used in Aqua and nonlinear analysis. It can accommodate inertia and drag forces produced by wave and current regimes. Drag, inertia and added-Mass coefficients were considered as 0.77, 2 and 1, respectively. Material properties correspond to BS7191 with σy=355MPa and σu= 460MPa. 2 Copyright © 2011 by ASME For the individual wave components, k n = ω n2 g is the wave number obtained from the dispersion relation for deep water waves. g is the acceleration of gravity, ωn is the wave frequency and θξ,n is a uniformly distributed random phase angle between 0-2π. Sξ(ωn) represents the wave spectrum values. To simulate a long duration irregular sea elevation, wave spectrum should be divided into enough components. For this purpose in present research, the wave spectrum was divided into 200 components and a stochastic phase angle was assigned to each sinusoidal wave component [17]. So, free simulated surface of sea, that is superposition of 200 regular waves, turned into complete irregular background. Therefore, a file containing 200 stochastic phase angle between 0-2π was generated for each simulations. In each analysis, this file was recalled by subroutine and used in sea surface simulation. Fig.1 3-D description of Judy jacket platform For deck modeling, a simplified model with two stories is generated and the total deck weight is divided on ten points of it as lumped mass. Also for simulating of Pile-Soil interaction, two models were compared. In first model, piles were modeled completely and p-y, t-z and q-z springs was used for Pile-Soil interactions according to API (2001). In second model a pile stub with shorter length was applied. Basis on compare of static analyses under lateral loads and frequency analyses results, in second model a pile stub with 20m length (equal to 8D; D: diameter of a leg) was considered. For model validating, the modal analysis results of two models that mentioned above are given in Table 1. The Newwave Profile NewWave theory models the surface elevation around an extreme event by the statistically most probable shape associated with its occurrence. This theory formulates a model that provides wave kinematics, for a special extreme crest, in different depths. The results can be used in a structural analysis. With regard to probable shape and its non-periodic nature, the NewWave model is singled out from regular wave theories like Stokes 5th order. The surface elevation is described by two terms, one deterministic and one random. As a function of time, the surface elevation η (τ ) can be written as [5]: Table1. Compared of Judy three lowest frequency First model Second model First mode 2.94 sec 2.87 sec Second mode 2.7 sec 2.8 sec Third mode 2.19 sec 2.19 sec η (τ ) = αρ (τ ) + g (τ ) (a) (3) where τ=t-to, α is the crest elevation defined as the vertical distance between the wave maximum and the mean water-level, and ρ(t) the autocorrelation function for the ocean surface elevation. In Equation 3, term (a) describes the most probable value of water surface and term (b) is a non-stationary Gaussian process with a mean of zero and a standard deviation that increases from zero at the crest to σ, the standard deviation of the underlying sea at a distance away from the crest. Therefore, as the crest elevation increases, term (a) becomes dominant and can be used alone in the derivation of surface elevation and wave kinematics near the crest. The autocorrelation function is proportional to the inverse Fourier Transform of the surface energy spectrum [5]: Irregular Wave Model An irregular time history of sea elevation could be generated from linear superposition of several regular waves with different heights and phase angles. A wave spectrum may be used for construction of this wave train. As a function of time, the wave elevation Z ( x, t ) can be defined as [16]: N Z ( x, t ) = ∑ cξ ,n cos(k n x − ωnt + θξ , n ) (b) (1) n =1 where N is large and the expected value of amplitude cξ,n is given by: cξ , n = 2 S ξ (ω n ) ∆ω ρ (τ ) = 1 ∞ σ ∫0 2 Sξ (ω )eiωτ dω (4) With the time history of the extreme wave group proportional to ρ(t) at the region around τ=0. For a time lag of (2) 3 Copyright © 2011 by ASME τ=0 the autocorrelation function of Equation 4 reduces to one, allowing the surface elevation of the NewWave to be scaled efficiently. The NewWave shape can be described by a finite number (N) of component sinusoidal waves, which when including spatial dependency can be to the discrete form [5]: η( X , t) = α N S (ωn )∆ω ]cos( k n X − ωn t ) 2 ∑ n =1[ ξ σ the extreme input surface elevation, and the extreme response might very well correspond to a combination of the local extreme wave with unfavorable background structural memory effect. It means that the extreme dynamic response of structure under wave effects can be generated by waves with lower height and different frequencies and also a long and high wave in wave process. Therefore, using regular wave theories such as stokes 5th order with a single frequency, possibly does not lead to the extreme response of structure. So, with methods such as CNW, which is considerably shorter than 3-hours simulations, the structural responses can be estimated and used in a design process. (5) X=x-x0, is the distance relative to the initial position with X=0 representing the wave crest. This allows the positioning of the spatial field such that the crest occurs at a user-defined position relative to the structure and is a useful tool for time domain analysis. Only linear NewWaves have been implemented allowing the water wave particle kinematics to be easily obtained once the water surface has been established. The hydrodynamic loads on a structure can be estimated using the Morison equation with the velocity and acceleration values from the NewWave. Fig.2 shows typical NewWave surface elevations as a function of time at X=0. To construct a proper NewWave profile, knowledge about some environmental conditions for the platform location is necessary. First of all, the design wave spectrum for the region and the crest elevation (α) should be determined. In fact, α represents the distance between the wave crest level to MSL. For the Judy platform, the design wave height is 24m. Considering a water depth of 75m and a wave period of Tz=15s, around 56% of the wave height was assumed to stay above MSL (α = 13.5m). The constrained surface elevation ηc(t) could be considered as [11]: ηc (t) = ηr (t ) + Qe(t ) + Rf (t ) (6) where ηr(t) is any random surface elevation from a given spectrum, Q and R are random constants and e(t) and f(t) are two non-random functions define as [11]: N e(t ) = ∑ cn . cos(ωn t ) (7) n =1 N f (t ) = ∑ d n . sin(ωnt ) (8) n =1 From equations 6 to 8, with some mathematical calculations as describe in details in [11], a solution for the constrained surface elevation can be derived: . . N N 2 2 − ρ (t ) η c (t ) = η r (t ) + ρ (t ) α − ∑ An + ( 2 ) α − ∑ Bn (9) λ n =1 n =1 Time of Hmax 0.56 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 where the terms have the following meanings: 0.44 term 1- the original random surface elevation; term 2- the unit NewWave; term 3- the predetermined constrained amplitude ( α ); term 4- the original random surface elevation at t=0 (or ηr(0)); term 5- the slope of the unit NewWave; term 6- the predetermined constrained slope; for a crest, α& =0; term 7 - the original random surface’s slope at t=0 (orη&r (0) ). Fig.2 The NewWave profile as a function of time The Cnw Profile Taylor et al. [6] showed that the NewWave can be embedded in a stochastic time history of sea surface and be used to estimate the extreme response of a Jack-Up in a severe sea-state. This irregular time history of the sea surface is called CNW (Constrained NewWave). For dynamically responding structures, the extreme response does not always correspond to A proper design spectrum that presents environmental sea conditions with a certain return period should be defined for CNW modeling and 3-hours simulations. The JONSWAP is the most suitable spectrum for North Sea. With regard to extreme 50-years return wave period (with 24m height on west 4 Copyright © 2011 by ASME Fig.3 NewWave with 13.5m elevation constrained in irregular wave surface components which is represented in shorter waves riding on the longer waves [21]. Several researchers attempted solving this problem by methods such as Stretching and Extrapolation to rectify the velocity and acceleration profiles of fluid. The most recognized method is Wheeler stretching method [18]. In this research, for selecting a suitable exact and fast method to determine the fluid kinematics on top of MSL, available investigations were reviewed. In some studies some Stretching method and the linear Extrapolation method have been correlated against available experimental data ([19, 20 and 21]). They found that Wheeler stretching method gave velocity profiles that were lower than the experimental results. The discrepancy was increasing by the increase in the wave steepness. They reported that linear extrapolation was giving results closer to the experiments. However, the latter was very sensitive to the cutoff frequency of the wave spectrum used for generating the irregular wave. A simple comparison is given in Figure 4, between the horizontal particle velocity predicted by the Airy and Stokes 5th order regular wave theories (with no correction) and from the NewWave predictions using Extrapolation and Wheeler correction methods. The wave spectrum and conditions correspond to that in the Judy Platform location and the crest height for three theories is 15m. Based on the discussions made above, in the current study, the Extrapolation method was considered for calculation of CNW and 3-hours storm irregular wave kinematics. direction), a JONSWAP spectrum with Hs=15m and Tp=12sec was selected as design spectrum. The same wave spectrum was used to generate both the CNW and 3-hours simulation sea states. In this research, 800 CNW simulations for four crest elevations were carried out. Correctons to the Velocity and Acceleration Profiles While the theoretical analysis of regular waves and hydrodynamic loading in general are fairly matured subject areas linear waves and Stokes waves are based on perturbation theory and provide directly wave kinematics below MSL. The underlying kinematics of regular waves and a random sea is not very clear in the region above the MSL. An irregular sea is assumed to be comprised of individual linear waves randomly super-imposed on each other. As an example, in a deep water the horizontal particle velocity, u(t), at time t is given by: N u (t ) = ∑ a jω j e kjz cos(ω jt + θ j ) (10) j =1 Where aj, ωj, kj , θj, and z are the amplitudes, frequencies, wave-numbers, phases and vertical elevation of the jth wave respectively. However, the ek z term increases very rapidly above MSL and can give rise to the phenomenon of “high frequency contamination”. This inherent problem in applying linear theory to irregular waves is well known and results in the exponential velocity profile being highly biased towards the higher frequency components above MSL, thereby giving extremely large and spurious velocities further up the wave crest. This is because the exponential term becomes very large at higher frequency and spuriously so at higher elevations as the baseline for all the elevation of any frequency component is taken to be the MSL. This is true on the assumption that all components are free. However in reality, this is not strictly so as there exist varied degrees of interaction between the j Crest Occurance Time in CNW One parameter in analyzing a structure against a CNW is the minimum warm up time, which is necessary for the structure and the CNW. This is the time duration from t=0 in the structural analysis to the time that the NewWave crest occurs (tHmax). The crest occurrence time depends on the crest height and the dynamic sensitivity of the structural. A 5 Copyright © 2011 by ASME MSL Fig.5 Variations in the maximum deck displacement against time of Hmax then mathematically extended to reproduce the cumulative probabilistic distribution for 100 maximum structural responses (called here a pseudo 100 cpdf). It was assumed that the cumulative probabilistic distribution functions of n different simulations (FX i (x) ) are identical to each other. Fig.4 comparison of regular & irregular wave horizontal velocities with the same crest heights sensitivity analysis has been performed on the Judy Platform using CNWs to study the effects from variations in the crest occurrence times. Four different CNWs were examined on the platform. The maximum deck displacement was used as a comparative index. The results are given in Figure 5 which shows that the structural response was converged and did not experience much change, when the crest occurrence times exceeded 60 seconds. . It is worth mentioning that in the analyses performed on the platform, it has been noticed that the maximum structural responses happened less than 10 seconds beyond the NewWave crest occurrence. So, for the CNW analysis performed on this platform, the NewWave crests were chosen to occur 60 seconds behind the analyses beginning, while the total time length of CNW analysis was considered 70 seconds. FX 1 ( x ) = FX 2 ( x ) = FX 3 ( x ) LL = FX n ( x ) (11) The cumulative probabilistic distributions of extreme responses from n separate simulations ( FY ( y ) ), or the pseudo n i cpdf, will then be: FYn ( y) = P[Yn ≤ y] = P[ X1 ≤ y, X 2 ≤ y, X 3 ≤ y,KK, X n ≤ y ] [ ⇒ FYn ( y ) = FX1 ( y) ] (12) n The cpdf of each 3-hours simulations for the deck displacement was obtained. For this purpose, different probability distribution functions such as Weibull and lognormal by statistical methods Chi-square, LevenbergMarquardt and Kolmogorov-Smirnov were tested against all responses to decide which one fits the data.The cpdfs from separate 3-hours simulations were then compared to each other. In general, separate cpdfs were found to be virtually identical. Then for each cpdfs with using probabilistic method, cpdfs of n maximum responses are generated. The 50% response exceedence value of cpdfs was then considered as the maximum structural response out of n 3-hours irregular storm wave simulations. Obviously more accurate responses could be obtained if the number of the 3-hours simulations is increased. Probabilistic Analysis Model Probabilistic analysis was performed to evaluate the maximum structural responses to irregular waves. Usually maximum structural responses of several simulations are determined and cumulative probabilistic distribution function (cpdf) is generated for obtaining the maximum structural response. Then the certain response exeedence value with engineering judgment on existing conditions obtained as the maximum response of structure. FAST PREDICTION METHODS CNW Model To avoid numerous time consuming 3-hours simulations, a cumulative probabilistic distribution function was defined for structural responses of a simulation. This cumulative probabilistic distribution against single 3-hours simulation was As it was previously stated, short duration CNW models have found able to provide results reasonably well comparable to those from time-consuming many hours of sea elevation simulating. The CNW model results have then been used in a 6 Copyright © 2011 by ASME fast predicting approach to obtain the response of the structure to different irregular wave conditions. The method incorporates the CNW simulation outputs and produces probabilistic nonlinear response amplitude operators. These data can then be used for “fast prediction” of the structural response against different wave climates. The results have seemed comparable to those provided by scores of 3-hour simulations of irregular storm waves. In this method, firstly a number of CNW simulations with various wave crests, 100 simulating per each wave crest height, are performed. The maximum structural response (say the maximum lateral topside displacement) from each "CNW simulation"/"wave crest height" are identified. For each wave crest height the probabilities of various responses (that is, responses with the likelihood 10, 20, 30,..., 90 percent) can then be plotted to obtain probabilistic non-linear response amplitude operator curves. Each response curve corresponds to specific probabilities. So, the structural response against the wave crest elevation in an irregular wave climate can be obtained by selecting a desirable wave crest height and introducing a random number between 0-100. The structural response is calculated by interpolating between "probability lines"/"crest heights" in top and down of random number. Figure 6 indicates a sample of fixed probability displacement response lines for the Judy platform, obtained from FPCNW (Fast Predict of CNW) method. response time series. This have resulted in several hundred "wave crest height"/"response amplitude" pairs out of each 3hour simulations. It is noted that in general there exists a time lag between the wave crest and the maximum response incidences. The data pairs have been arranged in crest height bins (for example elevation 4m is considered for a crest height range between 3.5m to 4.5m). This is different from that explained for the CNW model, where each CNW was representing an exact wave height (crest). Once again, for each wave crest height bin the probabilities of various response amplitudes have been plotted to obtain probabilistic non-linear response amplitude operator curves. Figure 7 shows the lines with the fixed probability displacement response of the Judy platform obtained from the FPTHS (Fast Predict of Time History Simulation) method. Fig.7 Constant probability lines generated from three time history simulation results RESULTS AND DISCUTIONS In previous section, two fast response prediction methods FPCNW and FPTHS have been discussed. The FPCNW method, incorporates the CNW simulation outputs to produce probabilistic non-linear response amplitude operators. In this method, firstly a number of CNW simulations with various wave crests are performed. For each wave crest height the probabilities of various responses are then plotted to obtain probabilistic non-linear response amplitude operator curves. The structural response against the wave crest elevation, in an irregular wave climate, can be obtained by selecting a desirable wave crest height. Fig.6 Constant probability lines generated from CNW results with different crest 3-Hour Simulations Model Based on the results from 3-hour simulations, another approach has also been examined in this paper for rapid predicting the structure response. Instead of performing 800 to 1000 CNW simulations, results from a small number of 3-hour simulations have been used to produce probabilistic non-linear response amplitude operators. The response time history, resulting from an individual 3-hour simulation, has been analysed to relate wave crest heights in the irregular water surface time series to its concurring response amplitude in the The FPTHS method introduced in this paper is based on result of three 3-hours simulations. Outputs from a small number of 3-hour simulations have been used to produce probabilistic non-linear response amplitude operators. In figure 8, cumulative probabilistic distribution of displacement responses from two fast predict methods, FPCNW and FPTHS, are compared with that from actual data (obtained from ten full 3-hours irregular storm simulations). 7 Copyright © 2011 by ASME Fig.8 Comparison of displacement cumulative probabilistic distribution of ten time history simulations from Actual, FPCNW and FPTHS results 8 Copyright © 2011 by ASME REFRENCES These probabilistic distributions have then been used to provide predictions for the maximum lateral displacement of the structure subjected to a wave with 13.5 crest height. Results are summarized in Table 2. [1] [2] [3] Table.2 Displacement response of time history simulations from probabilistic and fast predict methods and maximum of actual response [4] [5] Displacement R P(x)=50% from R P(x)=50% from R P(x)=50% from number of pseudo 100 cpdf pseudo 100 cpdf pseudo 100 cpdf 3-hours storms from cpdf each FPCNW FPTHS TH maximum of actual response [6] [7] 1 0.53 0.5 0.57 0.55 2 0.55 0.48 0.4 0.36 3 0.45 0.46 0.45 0.39 4 0.52 0.49 0.55 0.63 5 0.55 0.5 0.45 0.39 6 0.58 0.47 0.54 0.45 7 0.52 0.49 0.56 0.62 8 0.52 0.48 0.53 0.61 9 0.58 0.5 0.53 0.58 10 0.56 0.48 0.4 0.42 mean of them 0.54 0.49 0.50 0.50 [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] Table 2 shows that the predictions provided by the two fast methods (FPCNW and FPTHS) are well close to the maximum responses obtained from ten 3-hours simulations. In general FPCNW, has provided predictions around 8% higher than that from ten 3-hours simulations. [13] [14] [15] CONCLUSION Different irregular wave simulation approaches such as 3hours storm waves and Constrained NewWave (CNW) have been examined to predict the response of a jacket offshore structure to the wave action. Then two fast prediction methods, FPCNW and FPTHS, have been presented. They incorporates the CNW and 3-hours simulation outputs respectively to produce probabilistic non-linear response amplitude operators. [16] [17] [18] [19] Cumulative probabilistic distribution responses of FPCNW and FPTHS have been found to be very similar to that from ten full 3-hours simulation results. Predictions provided by the two fast methods (FPCNW and FPTHS) for the maximum response under an extreme wave event have been reasonably close to the maximum responses obtained from ten 3-hours simulations. FPCNW, predictions have been around 8% higher than that from ten 3-hours simulations while FPCNW, predictions have fallen around 2% bellow. 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Swan, Extreme Two-dimensional Water Waves: An Assessment of Potential Design Solutions, Applied Ocean Engineering 29 (2002) 387–416 H.J. Choi, Kinematics Measurements Of Regular Irregular And Rogue Waves By PIV/LDV, PHD Dissertation, Texas A&M University, 2005 N.C. Ojieh and N. Barltrop, Theoretical Modelling Of The Kinematics of Extreme Random-Wave Event generated by Focusing, Proceedings of the Eighteenth (2008) International Offshore and Polar Engineering Conference Vancouver, BC, Canada, July 6-11, 2008 DNV – RP – C205, Environmental Conditions and Environmental Loads, April 2007 Recommended Practice Copyright © 2011 by ASME