Managing Crises in the Public Sector: Causes, Challenges and Consequences PADM 7980 Instructor: Mr. Brant D. Mitchell, MPA, CEM (Stephenson Disaster Management Institute, LSU) Email: bmitch9@lsu.edu Office: (225) 578-5939 Hours: By Appointment Only Semester: Spring 2021 Class hours: Tuesday, 6-9pm Level: MA Credit: 3.0 Course rationale In recent years, Western societies have witnessed a variety of crises and disasters: acts of terrorism (the Oklahoma bombing; the 9/11 attacks; the London and Madrid bombings, and most recently Parish, Brussels and San Bernardino, CA), natural disasters (hurricanes Katrina, Rita, Gustav, Ike and Sandy; the Asian tsunami; the California wildfires), and man-made disasters (space shuttle Columbia; the financial crisis; the BP oil spill; and the Icelandic ash crisis). Countries in Asia, South America and Africa (Ebola) are even more prone to crises and disaster. These crises pose hard challenges for public leaders and the organizations they manage. Postcrisis investigations routinely document a plethora of failures: public authorities often fail to read early warning signals, understand unfolding disasters, make correct decisions, communicate effectively with the general public, learn from crises, and account for their actions. If we take into account the complex nature of crises and disasters, however, a more subtle picture emerges. We then see public authorities wrestle with a set of impossible challenges for which they are often ill prepared. It turns out that public authorities and their organizations, given the circumstances, often perform remarkably well. A fair assessment of government performance in the face of extreme events requires a deep understanding of crises and crisis management. Course description: This seminar aims to enhance students’ understanding of the complex challenges that crises pose. It explains the causes of these crises, by familiarizing students with the different schools of thinking on causes of crises and disasters. It will explore whether crises and disasters are changing (and getting worse). It maps patterns and consequences of crises and disasters, demonstrating the importance of adequate crisis and disaster management. It 1 will offer an overview of best practices and common pathologies, which will help students understand what public leaders should do and avoid in managing these crises. The seminar will build on a mix of theory, real-life cases, and policy documents. Students will learn to apply theoretical insights to the analysis of real-life crisis cases, formulating actionable advice for public authorities. The seminar includes guest lectures and a crisis simulation. This seminar consists of three “building blocks”: 1. Learning from practice: students explore the world of practice through site visits and practitioner interviews. Students will end this block with a problem or issue to be studied in the remainder of the course. 2. Learning from theory: students will study the theoretical literature on crises and crisis management, and they will learn how to apply theory to the problem or issue identified in block I. 3. Learning from research: students will engage in a research project, using theory and empirical research to suggest solutions for the problem at hand. Goals, Objectives, and Assessments Overall goal: The overall goal of the course is to prepare students for a role as analyst, consultant or practitioner in the public management of disasters, crises and security breaches. This seminar aims to familiarize students with the causes and patterns of modern crises, while providing them with an understanding of the administrative and political challenges that public leaders face before, during and after such epochal events. Course objectives: Students will learn about the main theories that explain the causes and patterns of crises and disasters. They will learn how to apply these theories to reconstruct reallife crisis and disaster cases. They will learn about the specific role and responsibilities of leaders in the public sector before, during, and after a crisis or disaster. They will learn how leaders deal with crisis management challenges and how the various courses of action affect crisis outcomes. They will learn how institutional, political and social contexts enable and constrain crisis management capacity. Learning objectives of the course: After successfully completing this seminar, students should be able to: • • • • • Provide a balanced and informative analysis of crisis causes; Identify and describe the characteristics and patterns of modern crises and disasters; Identify and describe the major challenges that crisis leaders face; Assess the crisis management performance of public authorities in a balanced and informative way; Analyze the institutional, political and social context of a given crisis or disaster management organization; 2 • • • Analyze the role of the media during and after crises and disasters; Apply the knowledge offered in this seminar to the analysis of a real-life crisis or disaster case. Offer actionable advice to crisis leaders. Required texts: There are no required texts for this class; however, students will be required to read selected articles provided over the semester. Class: The class will be taught seminar-style. This means much interaction between the instructors and students. The required texts will be intensively discussed. Students will work in small groups on class assignments, which will serve as a basis for class discussion. Students will be expected to come to class prepared and actively participate in group discussions. Regular class attendance is required. Meaningful and active contribution to class discussions is expected. Late assignments will not be accepted. Assignments: In Block I, each student will pick a crisis or disaster case that will serve as a reference point throughout the semester. The instructors will offer suggestions. All assignments are aimed towards producing a paper in which the case is analyzed using the tools offered in this class. Students are expected to complete three written assignments and two presentations for this course: 1. A book review – select a book on crisis management (see appendix for suggestions) and write a three-page review (1000-1500 words) in which you outline the aim of the book, summarize main findings and offer a thoughtful critique. This assignment will account for 20% of your grade. 2. Presentation: Encounter with a practitioner. Students will interview a practitioner to learn about crises and crisis management. This will count as 10% of your grade. 3. A paper proposal – this is a one-page description of your research project. The proposal should include a clearly defined research question and a brief introduction and rationale of your case(s). This assignment will account for 5% of your grade. 4. A term paper. Students will select a crisis or disaster (or several), formulate a specific question, and use theory and/or empirical analysis to answer the research question. The paper will conclude with actionable advice for involved practitioners. This assignment will be extensively discussed in class. It will account for 55% of your grade. 5. Final presentation. In the final class session, students will present their pre-final term paper to their peers and critique each other’s work in a respectful and constructive way. 3 Please prepare a 10 minute PowerPoint Presentation (maximum of 10 slides) in which you summarize your analysis and present your findings. Students can use the input to finalize their paper. The final presentation will account for 5% of your grade. Term paper evaluation: The final paper is due on Monday, May 3rd, 2021 (Midnight). Late submissions will not be accepted. The paper should contain no spelling errors and should be adequately referenced (no less than 15 references). Suggested length: 20-25 pages. It will be evaluated on the following criteria: 1) 2) 3) 4) a clear case description a well-defined research question appropriate analysis of the disaster formulation of actionable advice that follows from the analysis. In summary, the final grade will be based on the following grades: Class participation Book review Presentation Interview Paper proposal Final paper Final presentation 5% 20% 10% 5% 55% 5% Total 100% Students will also have an opportunity to receive up to a 2% bonus added to their overall grade as explained later in the syllabus. The following grading system will be used: A+ A AB+ B BC+ C C- (97%-100%) (93%-96%) (90%-92%) (87%-89%) (83%-86%) (80%-82%) (77%-79%) (73%-76%) (70%-72%) A minimum of a final “C-” grade is required to pass this class (this is a requirement of LSU’s Graduate School). 4 Academic honesty: Students are responsible for their own work. Plagiarism is not acceptable in any shape or form. If any of the university’s policies with regard to academic integrity are unclear, students should consult with the instructor. Schedule of Classes Week 1: Tuesday, 12 January 2021 (6pm -9pm) Introduction session. Review Syllabus and Course Requirements Week 2: Tuesday, 19 January 2021 (6pm-9pm) Crisis Management. We will establish the difference between an emergency, crisis, disaster and a catastrophe. Students will pick a book from the list for their review assignment. The formal structure of US disaster management (with an emphasis on Louisiana) Week 3: Tuesday, 26 January 2021 (6pm-9pm) Speaking truth to power: Analyzing Crises and Disasters Readings: - 9/11 report Katrina House Report Week 4: Tuesday, 2 February 2021 (6:00pm-9:00pm) Field Trip – State Emergency Operations Center (Pending Confirmation) Governor’s Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness 7667 Independence Blvd Baton Rouge, LA 70806 Week 5: Tuesday, 9 February 2021 (2pm-4pm) Presentations Interview Project. 5 First step towards formulation of topic for end project. Week 6: Tuesday, 16 February 2021 (6pm-9pm) Mardi Gras Holiday Week 7: Tuesday, 23 February 2021 (1:30pm-3pm) Field Trip – East Baton Rouge Emergency Operations Center (Pending Confirmation) 3773 Harding Blvd Baton Rouge, LA 70807 Week 8: Tuesday, 2 March 2021 (6pm-9pm) Book reviews and book presentations (bring to class and present presentation)! Presentation of Book Reviews. Presentation and discussion of paper proposals. Week 9: Tuesday, 9 March 2021 (6pm-9pm) The Management of Crisis: August 2016 Floods, 2017 Hurricanes and Emergent Groups Week 10: Tuesday, 16 March 2021 (6pm-9pm) The Crisis of School Shootings Reworked Paper Proposals are due today! Bring to class! Week 11: Tuesday, 23 March 2021 (6pm-9pm) No Class 6 Students will be required to complete the following two FEMA Independent Study Courses. Completion certificates must be submitted by 9:00 pm on 23 March 2021. IS-100: Introduction to Incident Command System (ICS) IS-200: ICS for Single Resources and Initial Action Incidents Week 12: Tuesday, 30 March 2021 (6pm-9pm) No Class Students will be required to complete the following two FEMA Independent Study Courses. Completion certificates must be submitted by 9:00 pm on 30 ,March 2021. IS-700: A National Incident Management System (NIMS) IS-800: National Response Framework (NRF) Week 13: Tuesday, 6 April 2021 (6pm-9pm) Pandemics / COVID-19 Response Week 14: Tuesday, 13 April 2021 (6pm-9pm) Future Trends in Disaster Management Week 15: Tuesday, 20 April 2021 (6pm-9pm) Final case presentations. Week 16: Tuesday, 30 April 2021 (6pm-9pm) No Class – Complete Final Reports 7 Dr Boin’s Classic Crisis Book List (These are suggestions – if you want to review a different book, please consult with us.) Graham Allison (1971). The Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuba Missile Crisis. Little Brown. • Classics in Political Science and International Relations • About the Cuban Missile Crisis • Studied the Strategic Decision Making at the Presidential Level Nassim Nicholas Taleb (2007) The Black Swan. • Fast-paced written book on events that people don’t expect to happen • Explains why we don’t see them coming • Been a popular choice in the past Jane Jacobs (2004) Dark Age Ahead. New York: Random House. • Studies the decline of American Cities • Presents a very pessimistic/dark view of American Society • Predicts a large scale crisis for the United States • Short Read Daniel Aldrich (2012) Building Resilience. The University of Chicago Press. • Compares New Orleans and Japan and how cities come back after a major disaster • Upcoming academic Cynthia Barnett (2007) Mirage: Florida and the Vanishing Water of the Eastern U.S. The University of Michigan Press. • Environmental Crisis, particularly the shortage of water • Gives an idea of how policy makers are disregarding these crisis and what they should be doing about it John M. Barry (2004) The Great Influenza: The Epic Story of the Deadliest Plague in History. Penguin Books. • About the Great Influenza • More people dies of Influenza in WWI than on the battlefield. • Challenges of fighting a pandemic; has Ulrich Beck (1992) Risk Society: Towards a New Modernity. Sage. • German Sociologist • How modern society increasingly marked by new risk and how governments are trying to deal with these risks. • Essentially risks are transboundaries and we don’t have to mechanisms to deal with these new risks 8 Thomas Birkland (2006) Lessons of Disaster: Policy Change After Catastrophic Events. Georgetown University Press. • Policy book • How governments learn or fail to learn lessons from disasters and how hard it is to change policy to ensure the same crisis doesn’t happen again. Mark Bowden (1999) Black Hawk Down: A Story of Modern War. Atlantic Monthly Press. • Operational and Strategic level risk communications almost create their own crisis Douglas Brinkley (2006) The Great Deluge: Hurricane Katrina, New Orleans, and the Mississippi Gulf Coast. William Morrow. • The definitive book on Katrina Maurizio Catino (2013). Organizational Myopia: Problems of Rationality and Foresight in Organizations. Cambridge University Press. • Problems in organizations • Why when they have the information and can’t understand what is in the information and why they miss the warning signs – 9-11 John Coates (2012) The Hour Between Dog and Wolf: Risk Taking, Gut Feelings and the Biology of Boom and Bust. London: Penguin Press. • Banker / Neurologist • Studies the perception of risk on the brain • How people think under stress Christopher Cooper and Robert Block (2006) Disaster: Hurricane Katrina and the Failure of Homeland Security. New York: Times Books. • Focused on the federal response of Hurricane Katrina Thomas Ricks (2006) Fiasco: The American Military Adventure in Iraq. New York: Pinguin Books. • US Intervention of Iraq • Explains how the American military misread the environment and failed to achieve its objectives Andrew Ross Sorkin (2009) Too Big To Fail. New York: Viking. • About the financial crisis • Discusses the role of the big banks • Adapted to a movie on HBO Mark Buchanan (2000) Ubiquity: Why Catastrophes Happen. Three Rivers Press. • There are underlying causal process of catastrophes regardless of the disaster • Discusses Complexity Theory 9 Lee Clarke (1999) Mission Improbable: Using Fantasy Documents to Tame Disaster. Chicago University Press. • How big organizations use plans that are supposed to prepare them for disasters but really fail in being able to do so. • He studied the plans and they really don’t accomplish what they are set out to do and he explains why this is. Jared Diamond (2005) Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Survive. Penguin Books. • Anthropologist • Studied the collapse of societies • Study of large societies and why they don’t exist anymore Kai Erikson (1976) Everything in its Path: Destruction of Community in the Buffalo Creek Flood. Simon and Schuster. • Case Study on Buffalo Creek and all the consequences. • The community was wiped away during a flash flood Stephen Flynn (2007) The Edge of Disaster. Random House. • Writes about terrorism and DHS • Goes through different scenarios Philip L. Fradkin (2005) The Great Earthquake and Firestorms of 1906. University of California Press. • Great Earthquake in 1906 in San Francisco Emanuel Gross (2006) The Struggle of Democracy Against Terrorism: Lessons from the United States, The United Kingdom and Israel. Charlottesville: The University of Virginia Press. • Discusses how democracies can fight terrorism. Lee Hamilton and Herbert Kelman (1990) Crimes of Obedience: Toward a Social Psychology of Authority and Responsibility. Yale University Press. • Small groups under pressure and they do things you would not expect them to do and they do it anyway • About the Mei Lie Disaster • Shooting of innocent civilians in Vietnam Irving Janis (1982) Groupthink: Psychological Studies of Policy Decisions and Fiascoes. Houghton Mifflin Company. • Strategic level of why a President and their advisories cling to a course of actions whether they are working or not. • Psychological 10 Donald F. Kettl (2004) System Under Stress: Homeland Security and American Politics. CQ Press. • The politics of how DHS was established Daniel Kahneman (2011) Thinking, Fast and Slow. London: Allen Lane. • Nobel Prize winning Psychologist explains how we think • Explains how stress and uncertainty affect our thinking Eric Klinenberg (2003) Heat Wave: A Social Autopsy of Disaster in Chicago. Chicago University Press. • Studies the Chicago Heat wave • Explains how people’s neighbors died and they weren’t even aware as a result of a 3 week heatwave Mark Levine (2007) F5: Devastation, Survival, and the Most Violent Tornado Outbreak of the Twentieth Century. Miramax Books. • Case Study on a tornado in the mid-west John A. Nagl (2005) Learning to Eat Soup with a Knife: Counterinsurgency Lessons from Malaya and Vietnam. The University of Chicago Press. • Thinking through how we need to prepare for counterinsurgencies. • Need a new way of thinking and organizing Constance Perin (2005) Shouldering Risks: The Culture of Control in the Nuclear Power Industry. Princeton University Press. • The culture of risks with Nuclear Power Charles Perrow (1999) Normal Accidents: Living with High-Risk Technologies. Princeton University Press (second edition). • Explain how organizations with high risk technologies produce disasters. Reason, James (1990). Human Error. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. • The role of human error in causing disasters. Emery Roe and Paul Schulman (2008) High Reliability Management: Operating on the Edge. Stanford University Press. • High Reliability Organizations. They can deal with crisis even when they are operating under stress • California Energy Crisis in 1999 11 Scott Sagan (1993) The Limits of Safety: Organizations, Accidents and Nuclear Weapons. Princeton University Press. • Nuclear Weapons and the near accidents and nuclear wars that we have almost entered into Elaine Schowalter (1997) Hystories: Hysterical Epidemics and Modern Media. New York: Columbia University Press. • How people really produce their own moral epidemic • They start believing in things that really isn’t happen • Create their own fear and the role of the media in doing this Peter Schwartz (2003) Inevitable Surprises: Thinking Ahead in a Time of Turbulence. New York: Gotham Books. • Predicts the future • The book explains his process Scott A. Snook (2000) Friendly Fire: The Accidental Shootdown of U.S. Black Hawks over Northern Iraq. Princeton University Press. • Explains how it is possible sophisticated armies can shoot their own forces Rebecca Solnit (2010) A Paradise Built in Hell: The Extraordinary Communities that Arise in Disaster. London: Penguin Books. • Explains what happens in large scale disasters like Katrina and how societies come together or don’t come together after the disaster. Robert Stallings (1995) Promoting Risk: Constructing the Earthquake Threat. New York: Aldine de Gruyter. • How do we keep building buildings in places that are due for a hurricane Ted Steinberg (2000) Acts of God: The Unnatural History of Natural Disaster in America. Oxford University Press. • Explains why disasters appear to hurt poor people. Barry A. Turner and Nick F. Pidgeon (1997) Man-Made Disasters. Butterworth-Heinemann. • Explains the causes of disasters • Hard to get Bert Useem and Peter Kimball (1989) States of Siege: U.S. Prison Riots 1971-1986. Oxford University Press. • Explains the similarities for a series of prison riots. 12 Diane Vaughan (1996) The Challenger Launch Decision: Risky Technology, Culture, and Deviance at NASA. Chicago University Press. • Explains how NASA missed many signals that could have prevented the disasters. Karl E. Weick and Kathleen M. Sutcliffe (2001) Managing the Unexpected: Assuring High Performance in an Age of Complexity. Jossey-Bass. • High Reliability Organizations written from a business perspective. Aaron Wildavsky (1988) Searching for Safety. Transaction. • How we think about taking risks in society • Resilience vs. Non-Risk Taking • Sometimes it’s better to take risk and then pay for them when they happen than trying to prevent risks. John Robb (2007) Brave New War: The Next Stage of Terrorism and the End of Globalization. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley and Sons. • Discusses terrorism Daniel Gardner (2009) The Science of Fear. New York: Plume. • Explains why we have rational fears such as taking an airplane why the risks are small in comparison to driving in a car. Gary Klein (2009) Streetlights and Shadows: Searching for the Keys to Adaptive Decision Making. Boston: MIT Press. • Explains why very experienced crisis managers can see certain things happening and how they act on it. 13