SVEDKA Vodka SVEDKA Vodka As he waited for his wife to meet him, Guillaume Cuvelier sat in a downtown Manhattan restaurant sipping vodka straight up. As founder and managing director of Spirits Marque One, a liquor importer, Cuvelier wondered if patrons of such an upscale bar would soon be ordering his new vodka by its name: SVEDKA. It was mid-1998, and the product was set to launch in just a few months. Scanning the bar for the competition’s vodka bottles, Cuvelier ran through the marketing campaign in his head.1 The U.S. government defined vodka as a neutral spirit “without distinctive character, aroma, taste, or color.” As one food and beverage writer explained, “Good vodka is considered to be one without the harsh, rubbing-alcohol fumes of ethanol.”2 The nowpopular liquor originated in the fourteenth century in either Russia or Poland (depending on which history you believe) as a spirit distilled from rye or wheat. In the early 1800s, the introduction of filtration and dilution techniques allowed vodka to evolve into something more refined but no less potent. As Cuvelier enjoyed his drink, the image of James Bond came to mind—described years earlier by an industry observer as “the first upscale vodka drinker.”3 Consumers were increasingly imitating Bond’s discerning taste for high-priced vodka. In this climate, Cuvelier reviewed his own pricing, distribution, and positioning one last time. He hoped he was right that the vodka market was ready for a mid-priced option: Was there really an opportunity below the Bond tier and above the very low-priced products? With a small marketing budget, Cuvelier had to be correct in his efforts to position his brand as he created a new segment. On Trend Trends in the marketplace inspired Cuvelier to take a closer look at opportunities in the spirits business (whiskey, gin, and vodka were among those classified as spirits). In 1991, he had received his MBA from the Darden School of Business at the conclusion of a two-year hiatus from his position with LVMH’s Möet Hennessy-Louis Vuitton. As an industry insider during the 1980s and early 1990s, Cuvelier had been inspired by Absolut vodka’s success as a product, brand, and category leader. “Pre-Absolut, you could say that vodka was vodka was vodka,” he said. Cuvelier believed there was room to compete in the category by offering his own twist on the concept of name-brand vodka. With that purpose in mind, in 1998, Cuvelier founded a small entrepreneurial team of industry experts in New York City. That same year, vodka was the top-selling distilled spirit, representing 24% of total spirits consumption in the United States, up 3.6% in volume sales from 1997. The growth in premium vodka was in stark contrast to the negative long-term trend for most other spirits. The Market Branded vodka dated back to the late 1860s, when Smirnoff cultivated the endorsement of the czar, engaged in comparative advertising with competitors, and paid patrons of Moscow bars to demand Smirnoff and accept no substitutes. Russia’s connection with the category became prominent in the minds of many consumers. A leading imported vodka from Russia, Stolichnaya, had been introduced to the United States as recently as 1965. The brand leveraged its Russian image, evoking a strong connection to its origin and heritage. But “Stoli stumbled after the Soviet downing of Flight 007 in 1982, [which] hurt sales of many Russian products.”4 Once a Russian import, Smirnoff was eventually produced in the United States and came to dominate the domestic vodka segment, capturing almost 20% of the market share by 1998. Until the launch of Absolut, Smirnoff dominated the premium-price vodka segment with a brand name that derived authenticity from the family’s Russian heritage. The launch of Absolut in 1979 and its now-famous ad campaign helped the brand attain its pop-culture status. In 1998, Absolut spent $18 million on advertising.5 Years later, USA Today reported: “Absolut had pioneered selling distilled spirits on image, persuading consumers to buy prestige in a bottle for $20. But the new prestige vodkas, at $25 to $200, have become what Absolut was 20 years ago.”6 It took more than a decade for the Dutch Ketel One and American Skyy (then the only domestic vodka priced above $10) to enter the market. New prestige vodkas available at a high price point did indeed seem to become what Absolut once was. The Business of Spirits stated that the price for vodka “increased to $30 with the debut of Grey Goose, Chopin, and Belvedere in the late 1990s. Now, the debut market [was] flooded with $30 vodkas.”7 The success of Grey Goose proved people would pay $30 for a bottle of vodka; in 1998, its sales increased 50% from the previous year.8 Cuvelier had watched as “consumers became increasingly aware about the look, quality, and origin of vodka.” Smirnoff was not alone in its high-volume sales and market share results. Brands such as Popov, Gordon’s, McCormick, and Barton (each priced under $10) sold the most cases and enjoyed the largest shares.9 A significant portion of these sales was for the larger-size plastic bottles. Cuvelier believed that a midprice vodka could capture some volume sales from the under-$10 market. “This standard vodka category had never been expanded to include consumers who were willing to stretch their wallets a little bit,” he said. The Product Vodka could be manufactured inexpensively out of many different raw ingredients and didn’t need to be aged. Its standard alcohol content was 40%, or 80 proof. Because the staple ingredients were relatively cheap, vodka companies invested in more complex distilling and filtering methods as well as flavor ingredients to distinguish their brands. Marketing campaigns often highlighted “more exotic backstories” to justify higher prices and profits.10 Indeed, vodka’s smoothness and thickness could vary from brand to brand. “The burn is usually associated with inexpensive vodkas,” said Robert Plotkin, founder of BarMedia, a beverage consulting firm.11 Cuvelier was dedicated to creating a high-quality product that could be distinguished for its soft, silky drinkability. He selected Lidkoping, Sweden, as the manufacturing site. Cuvelier knew the country had recently joined the European Union, causing it to deregulate the alcohol monopoly. “My plan was to be the first to effectively develop and produce 80-proof Swedish vodka immediately after the reopening of the market,” he explained. “I wanted the vodka to be from Sweden so I could take advantage of the Absolut tailwind.” SVEDKA outsourced its production to large, established industrial facilities. The glass bottles were imported from Germany, decorated in France, and shipped to the factory in Sweden to be filled with vodka. The finished product was shipped in cases to the United States. Wine Enthusiast confirmed the quality of Cuvelier’s product, rating SVEDKA 93 out of 100. Classifying the vodka as a “Best Buy,” the review said, “We can’t remember using the word ‘complex’ when describing a vodka before, but this one shows a tightly knit set of characteristics that deserve applause.”12 SVEDKA would initially be available in the standard 750ml and 1.75L bottles. Larger and smaller sizes could be added once the business grew. “This gradual size rollout was common industry practice, especially for a start-up brand,” Cuvelier said. While many brands were extending their selection to include flavored vodkas, SVEDKA focused on the core unflavored business for the launch. The Price In addition to the option of imitating the premium prices of recent imported vodka successes, there was the under-$10-per-bottle market, which Cuvelier estimated was approximately 80% of the market volume (also known as the “standard” vodka segment, it ranged from $5 to $9 for 750ml). In fact, in 1998, 23 million cases were purchased at retail prices less than $10 per 750ml bottle (Table 9-1). And then there was the third opportunity: to be a midtier player between the high and low price spectrums. 13 Note: Market share calculation is based on total case volume for imported and domestic vodka. Data sources: Adams Business Media; Virginia Department of Alcoholic Beverage Control; case writer estimates. Table 9-1 Vodka Category Price, Units Sold, Market Share, and Launch Year by Brand, 1998 Cuvelier estimated that wholesaler margins for SVEDKA averaged 25%. Retailers’ margins varied from 30% to 35%. It was industry practice to offer retailers volume discounts. Cuvelier created Table 9-2 to estimate the discount levels he would be expected to offer. Source: SVEDKA. Table 9-2 Estimated Discount Levels Based on Case Quantity Discount To reach a final everyday suggested retail bottle price, Cuvelier had to consider the costs along the wholesale and retail channels. The wholesaler’s net laid-in costs were the sum of the free on board (FOB) price, the U.S. Federal Excise Tax (FET), state tax, and freight costs. (The FET per proof gallon was $13.50 in 1998.) SVEDKA classified the mandatory FET and individual state taxes (which varied by state) as hard production costs. Pricing was tricky, and critics warned Cuvelier that if the price were too low, consumers might think the vodka was low-quality. But if SVEDKA were priced too high, consumers might question its value. A midrange price would risk SVEDKA’s getting lost among the more premium brands. Already, higher-priced brands were encountering competition from the superpremium competitors. In The Business of Spirits, author Noah Rothbaum commented on the dilemma SVEDKA faced: “Many companies with high-priced spirits are concerned that their products soon will be leapfrogged by other, even more expensive brands, stealing their attention and market share.” 15 The Brand The first association consumers would have with the product was its name. Cuvelier had searched for a word that evoked the vodka’s Swedish heritage. During his many trips to Sweden, the word Svensk (“Swedish”) caught his attention; it appeared everywhere. He combined it with the word “vodka” to come up with an easier-to-pronounce version: SVEDKA. Although focus groups and the packaging agency didn’t confirm the wisdom of his choice, Cuvelier stayed with his intuition. The name was fitting for the product’s positioning. Cuvelier envisioned SVEDKA as a challenger brand, with a personality like JetBlue in the airline industry or Target in fashion: an inexpensive, chic alternative. It was a fun option that challenged the status quo in a category that was taking itself too seriously. SVEDKA empowered the consumer with a different choice where there wasn’t much discrepancy among the products in its category. “The category is locked in sameness,” Cuvelier said. “Each brand relies on a stated marketing recipe of bottle shot plus product benefit plus cocktail recipe plus historical reference.”18 Advertising By 2007, the industry had spent more than $200 million on advertising through various channels, including outdoor, magazine, newspaper, and television. TV advertising of alcoholic drinks had been controversial; indeed, for 48 years liquor producers had chosen not to air commercials. In 1996, Seagram broke that trend with network spots promoting Crown Royal and Lime Twisted Gin. In spite of the public outcry that arose, other liquor brands slowly started testing cable TV spots. Eventually, cable television came to be seen as the most suitable venue for liquor advertising. The print ads for vodka were very sophisticated. In 1980, Absolut began featuring its bottle’s distinct silhouette, a practice it continued for more than two decades. Its innovative campaign prompted an account rep at TBWA, Absolut’s ad agency, to write a book in 1996 about its print campaign. Grey Goose won the Beverage Tasting Institute award for “best-tasting vodka” in 1998 and used the title in a series of successful print campaigns in the Wall Street Journal and other high-end publications. In the same year, Sex and the Citycharacters started asking for a “Grey Goose cosmopolitan,” which extended the brand’s recognition and superpremium image. The Campaign Cuvelier estimated he had about $350,000 to spend in his first year on marketing SVEDKA (not including promotions to wholesalers and retailers, which could include the discount levels, support materials, sales force incentives, and in-store promotions). He allocated this budget among media, point of sale (POS), trade shows, creative, and sampling. Until distribution reached key markets, Cuvelier did not use traditional advertising. Generally, brands were promoted in print (with magazines as the dominant medium), outdoor, broadcast, and electronic media at an increase of 14% over the $256 million spent in 1997.19 Cuvelier wanted SVEDKA to achieve distribution, brand awareness, and word of mouth before he launched a national campaign. He was left to reassess the best use of his dollars across the following marketing methods. Trade Press and PR Cuvelier viewed trade relationships as the first step in communicating about his brand. There were a small but influential group of trade magazines and writers he needed to acquaint with SVEDKA. He bought a few full-page trade ads and entered SVEDKA in vodka contests to drum up press. He succeeded with the Wine Enthusiast 93 rating. Such high marks were in line with the more expensive Grey Goose (which received a 94) and Ketel One (93) and higher than the ratings for Stolichnaya (91), Skyy (90), Belvedere (89), and Absolut (90).20 The favorable results validated the brand in the eyes of the wholesalers. Their excitement about SVEDKA would determine how quickly it was embraced by the largest, bottom portion: the core consumer. All media outreach was limited to the trade outlets. SVEDKA used its high-profile reviews to fuel favorable trade press articles. But additional public relations efforts toward larger publications were not scheduled for the launch. Point of Sale Brand visibility would thus be at the store level through POS materials. Because of the emphasis on an off-premise distribution strategy, Cuvelier allocated marketing dollars toward enhancing the in-store experience (midtier liquor stores). POS and store signage (shelf, display, and window materials) helped bring the brand to life at the point of decision making and purchasing. The Wine Enthusiast ranking was displayed on POS pieces to provide the unknown product with credibility. Trade Shows SVEDKA planned to sponsor booths at top industry trade shows. Attendees at these shows included wholesalers and retailers, as well as the media and competition. Although trade shows were costly and time-consuming, Cuvelier believed that having a presence at industry events would develop brand recognition as well as provide continuing insight into industry trends. Creative The collateral materials that supported the SVEDKA booth at trade shows, in addition to the POS materials and trade press kits, fell under the creative investment line item. Cuvelier wanted all branding elements to have a cohesive look and feel for both internal and external audiences. The same images appeared as limited ads in trade magazines such as Beverage Industry News. Marketing-Mix Model SVEDKA founder Guillaume Cuvelier considered looking into historic U.S. vodka sales to evaluate the effect of new flavors, segment membership, and advertising. Consumer reactions to vodka advertising and pricing probably differed among the superpremium, premium, and value segments. New brand entries also may have had different price and advertising elasticities compared with the established brands. Finally, new flavors could have had a direct effect on vodka sales. Cuvelier wondered if he could quantify the financial value of his product’s Wine Enthusiast certification and 2002 and 2003 gold medals. Understanding the value generated by each of the three campaigns from 1998 through 2005 would provide a good basis for the design of future campaigns. And identifying brands that directly competed with SVEDKA would allow Cuvelier to effectively allocate marketing resources. Cuvelier wanted to use historic vodka brand sales to inform his product’s price and advertising budget. Assignment Questions 1. Use Trend Line in Tableau to get a regression result of Dollarsales on total-ad. Examine the trend line of each brand and discuss which brands are significantly impacted by their advertising expenditures. The indicator is discussed in the assigned reading – “Multiple regression in marketing”. 2. Use Tableau with R to run a multiple regression of the Dollarsales on the marketing expenditures on Magazines, Newspaper, outdoor, and broadcasting. Which brands does the regression model fit more (more closely predicts the outcomes)? 3. Based on your analysis of the data, what recommendations do you have for Cuvelier regarding the marketing mix for SVEDKA?