Geoscience Frontiers 6 (2015) 817e823
H O S T E D BY
Contents lists available at ScienceDirect
China University of Geosciences (Beijing)
Geoscience Frontiers
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/gsf
Research paper
Effect of climate change on seasonal monsoon in Asia and its impact
on the variability of monsoon rainfall in Southeast Asia
Yen Yi Loo a, Lawal Billa b, *, Ajit Singh a
a
b
School of Bioscience, University of Nottingham Malaysia Campus, Jalan Broga, 43500 Semenyih, Malaysia
School of Geography, University of Nottingham Malaysia Campus, Jalan Broga, 43500 Semenyih, Malaysia
a r t i c l e i n f o
a b s t r a c t
Article history:
Received 2 August 2013
Received in revised form
9 February 2014
Accepted 20 February 2014
Available online 21 March 2014
Global warming and climate change is one of the most extensively researched and discussed topical
issues affecting the environment. Although there are enough historical evidence to support the theory
that climate change is a natural phenomenon, many research scientists are widely in agreement that the
increase in temperature in the 20th century is anthropologically related. The associated effects are the
variability of rainfall and cyclonic patterns that are being observed globally. In Southeast Asia the link
between global warming and the seasonal atmospheric flow during the monsoon seasons shows varying
degree of fuzziness. This study investigates the impact of climate change on the seasonality of monsoon
Asia and its effect on the variability of monsoon rainfall in Southeast Asia. The comparison of decadal
variation of precipitation and temperature anomalies before the 1970s found general increases which
were mostly varying. But beyond the 1970s, global precipitation anomalous showed increases that
almost corresponded with increases in global temperature anomalies for the same period. There are
frequent changes and a shift westward of the Indian summer monsoon. Although precipitation is
observed to be 70% below normal levels, in some areas the topography affects the intensity of rainfall.
These shifting phenomenon of other monsoon season in the region are impacting on the variability of
rainfall and the onset of monsoons in Southeast Asia and is predicted to delay for 15 days the onset of the
monsoon in the future. The variability of monsoon rainfall in the SEA region is observed to be decadal
and the frequency and intensity of intermittent flooding of some areas during the monsoon season have
serious consequences on the human, financial, infrastructure and food security of the region.
Ó 2015, China University of Geosciences (Beijing) and Peking University. Production and hosting by
Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Keywords:
Climate change
Temperature anomalies
Precipitation anomalies
Seasonal monsoons
Rainfall variability
Southeast Asia
1. Introduction
The global circulation in terms of precipitation is an important
element for the functionality of the Earth’s system. It helps to
regulate the temperature of the Earth by transporting heat from the
tropics to the higher latitudes. However, this system is vulnerable
to long-term temperature fluctuations, more commonly termed as
climate change. Climate change is currently debated as an anthropologically enhanced phenomenon. Many scientists of today have
been trying to quantify climate change and its relation with other
* Corresponding author. Tel.: þ60 3 8924 8766; fax: þ60 3 8924 8018.
E-mail address: Lawal.Billa@nottingham.edu.my (L. Billa).
Peer-review under responsibility of China University of Geosciences (Beijing)
environmental systems. Arguably one of the most heavily dependent upon weather system is the monsoon season of Southeast
Asia. While there are many literature available on the interactivity
of the monsoon seasons, the impact of climate change in terms of
rising temperatures on monsoon rainfall intensities in Southeast
Asia has received little attention.
The objective of this study is to establish the link between global
warming and precipitation increases and to understand the effects
of these climate change trends on the dynamics of Asian monsoon
seasons and how it impact rainfall variability in Southeast Asia.
Climate change is discussed mainly in references to observed
temperature anomalies ( C) from the late 20th century to the early
21st century, while rainfall variability of the East Asian summer
monsoon is examined based on the observed seasonal rainfall
anomaly. Secondary data on thermometric records over the last
century have been analyzed to understand the effects of climate
1674-9871/$ e see front matter Ó 2015, China University of Geosciences (Beijing) and Peking University. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gsf.2014.02.009
818
Y.Y. Loo et al. / Geoscience Frontiers 6 (2015) 817e823
change from the overall variation and distribution of temperature
and discussed in the context of meteorological records of global
precipitation and importantly in the Southeast Asia region. The
pattern of South Asian monsoons and other sub seasons are
investigated to understand their effect and impact on rainfall distribution and vulnerability during the southeast monsoon season.
In recent years, the erratic and unpredictable nature of the monsoons have caused extensive financial loss, damage to lives and
property and also the destruction of the environment and farmlands. This consequently leads to food insecurity issues. It has thus,
become a priority to predict and understand monsoon rainfall
patterns in many Asian countries (Reuter et al., 2012).
2. Climate change and climate variability
Climate change is inevitable and unstoppable in its nature.
However, the 20th century global warming has been linked directly
with anthropological impacts, such as the burning of fossil fuel,
excessive emission of greenhouse gases, and urbanization. Climate
variability is concerned with the changeability in ‘the mean state
and other statistics (such as the standard deviation, extremes, or
shape of frequency distribution) of climate elements on all spatial
and temporal scales beyond those of individual weather events’
(Serreze and Barry, 2010). Climate change on the other hand is
variability that continues over a longer period and is statistically
significant.
Global temperatures are recorded by combining temperature
measurements from around the world. According to NOAA (2012a),
due to the variability of methods of the data collection that include
mercury thermometers invented in the early eighteen century,
temperature records before 1850s are considered unreliable to be
used for interpreting climate change. Therefore, temperature
anomalies, the deviations from the referenced temperature (NOAA,
2012b), are used as a means to compare the change in temperatures. A positive value indicates a higher temperature and a negative value indicates a lower temperature from the referenced value.
These differences are based on a normal, which can be explained as
the ‘arithmetic average of a climate element (e.g. temperature) over
a 30-year period’.
According to the University of East Anglia’s Climatic Research
Unit in the UK, there is a distinctive increase in temperature after
the last decline from 1945 to 1973 (Brohan et al., 2006). The
somewhat exponential increase, shown in Fig. 1, is strongly
believed to be anthropologically associated, caused by carbon
emission and urbanization. The impact of rapid urbanization on
climate change is the temperature increase caused by buildings and
urban activities. This increase in temperature has an immediate
effect on the global rainfall distribution. The study NOAA-NCDC
(2011) (Fig. 2) shows the total annual amount of global precipitation from 1910 to 2010. The changes in average precipitation over
the period since 1910 to 2010 are seen on a baseline which does not
change over time and which is also reflected in the global precipitation averages. A further look at the data shows more frequencies
of negative precipitation anomalies from the 1950 to 1970. Beyond
1970, the frequent fluctuations between positive and negative
precipitation anomalies follow the dramatic increase of global air
temperature. Therefore, we can say that there is a relationship
between global increase in temperature and precipitation changes
beyond the 1970s.
3. Monsoon weather systems
Seasonality is caused by the tilting of the Earth, while the
monsoon weather systems are a result of the land-sea temperature
differences caused by solar radiation (Huffman et al., 1997). When
the Earth rotates and revolves around the Sun, different seasons
occur due to the different land masses of the northern and southern
hemispheres. To understand this phenomenon, it is useful to note
that the land surface area at the northern hemisphere is larger than
the southern hemisphere. Therefore, the northern hemisphere is
warmed greater. This causes opposing seasons between the
northern and southern hemispheres. The two regimes of monsoon
are the Southeast Asian summer monsoon (10 e20 N) and the
western North Pacific summer monsoon (10 e20 N, 130 e150 E),
and are separated by a boundary over the South China Sea
(Kripalani and Kulkarni, 1997). This seasonality is important in
regulating rain regime. During winter, the tilting of the Earth allows
less solar radiation at the northern hemisphere. This results in rapid
cooling followed by pressure decrease in the atmosphere. Anticyclones develop over Siberia and the cold northeasterly air reaches the coastal waters of China before heading towards Southeast
Asia (MMD, 2012). The East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) is
usually dry in Southeast Asia. During summer, the southwest
monsoon rainfall is controlled by the warming of the northern
hemisphere, where the heated air will rise, and be transported by
the monsoon wind towards the southern hemisphere (Wolfson,
2012). East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) seasons are
Figure 1. Global temperature anomaly from 1850 to 2010 (Brohan et al., 2006).
Y.Y. Loo et al. / Geoscience Frontiers 6 (2015) 817e823
819
Figure 2. Global precipitation anomalies from 1910 to 2010 (NOAA-NCDC, 2011).
important as a key resource of water in many Southeast Asian
countries. Therefore, EASM is discussed more extensively in this
paper.
3.1. Monsoon seasons in Southeast Asia and its relation to other
weather systems
The Southeast Asian countries include East India, South China,
Myanmar, Thailand, Vietnam, Laos, Kampuchea, Malaysia,
Singapore, Indonesia, Borneo, the Philippine islands, Portuguese
Timor and western New Guinea as illustrated in Fig. 3. These
countries are influenced by the monsoon which is a ‘large-scale
seasonal reversals of the wind regime’ (Serreze and Barry, 2010)
and the word is derived from the Arabic word ‘mausim’ meaning
seasonality. Monsoonal areas receive summer rainfall maximums
and most of double rainfall maximums. Monsoon not only influences Asian countries, but also breaches beyond the tropical
latitudes. Monsoon rainfall can also affect regions that were not
originally considered as monsoonal (Serreze and Barry, 2010). The
two main monsoon regimes are specifically named the northeast
monsoon (winter monsoon) from November to March, and the
southwest monsoon (summer monsoon) from late May to
September. Furthermore, October is the transition month from the
southwest to northeast monsoon seasons (Cruz et al., 2012). The
EASM happens when rainfall reaches maximum during the boreal
winter, whereas the EAWM happens during boreal summer where
Figure 3. Southeast Asia region (Kripalani and Kulkarni, 1997).
820
Y.Y. Loo et al. / Geoscience Frontiers 6 (2015) 817e823
Figure 4. (a) Future change in summer convective precipitation in India and (b) future change in monsoon onset date in India (Ashfaq et al., 2009).
rainfall reaches maximum. The EAWM is an atmospheric flow over
Asia and is variable greatly depending on the Siberian High and the
Arctic Oscillation (Wang et al., 2012).
The Siberian High (SH) refers to the semi-permanent system
that accumulates cold, dry air in northeastern Siberia. It reaches its
maximum intensity in winter and accounts for the lowest temperatures and the highest pressures in weather systems. The Arctic
Oscillation (AO), also known as the Northern Hemisphere annular
mode of atmospheric circulation, is categorized into two phases by
looking at the characteristics of the wind that circulates the Arctic
in an anti-clockwise direction (NOAA, 2012a). When the wind is
strong, the circulation remains in the Arctic Circle. This is termed as
the positive phase. During the negative phase, the high pressure at
the North Pole and lower pressure at mid-latitudes (OSS, 2013)
results in wind moving towards the tropics. The weather and
climate of the Arctic affects the monsoon seasonality indirectly. The
Arctic ice sheets controls the intensity of SH which influences the
EAWM e a strong SH results in a strong EAWM. This is also recorded by the methods of measuring the grain size of loess done by
many scientists as an indicator of the intensity of EAWM. A stronger
wind is able to carry coarser dust (Wang et al., 2012). Chinese loess
records showed that there has been an increase in grain size suggesting that the strength of the EAWM has increased during the
Holocene (Wang et al., 2012). The increased dust deposition has
been associated with drier and cooler EAWM conditions (Porter,
2001).
The EASM however, is dominated by the western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) (Zhou et al., 2009; SOEST, 2013; Wang et al.,
2013). Findings of the study done by Wang et al. (2013) show that
positive WPSHeocean interaction can provide a source of climate
predictability and highlight the importance of subtropical dynamics
in understanding monsoon and tropical storm predictability. Zhou
et al. (2009) stated that the change in atmosphere temperature
partly affects the WPSH, which directly influences the EASM. Since
the late 1970s, the WPSH had shifted westward for reasons
unknown to date. Referring to the study of Zhou et al. (2009), the
westward shift of the WPSH from the mean position of the western
edge (133.5 E) is 14 during the 1980e1999 (119.5 E). It was
suggested that the westward shift of EASM is due to the
atmosphere’s response to the observed Indian Oceanewestern
Pacific (IWP) warming (Huang and Yan, 1999; Zhou et al., 2009).
Another interesting factor that influences the monsoon rainfall
onset dates is the Himalayan uplift, or the Tibetan Plateau (Kilaru
et al., 2013). The rate of growth of the Tibetan Plateau is faster
than its erosion process possibly (Mishra and Kumar, 2014). The
decrease in rainfall over major parts of the region may account for
the slow erosion process. This has been argued as a factor that
promoted the monsoon strengthening in Asia (Reuter et al., 2012).
The increased convection at high temperatures results in more
rainfall at the leeward region. This may also be a contributor of the
flooding in Indian regions.
3.2. Temperature increase and seasonal monsoonal changes in
Southeast Asia
Schewe and Levermann (2012) predicted the increasing temperature in the late 21st century and early 22nd century will cause
frequent changes and shifts to the monsoon precipitation up to 70%
below normal levels. Not only will this affect the Indian summer
monsoon, but the onset of monsoon over Southeast Asia may also
be delayed up to 15 days in the future as indicated by Ashfaq et al.
(2009). Fig. 4a and b shows this extent of these distributional
changes in the monsoon and of climate change extends to cause
less precipitation in summer and a delay on the onset of the EASM.
This will be detrimental to the Indian population as 75% of the total
annual rainfall of India is from the summer monsoons. On the 24th
of July 2004, the scenario was different as northeastern India and
Bangladesh received an early monsoon onset and experienced
maximum flooding that caused a death toll of approximately 1000
across South Asia (Coenraads, 2006).
The small scale regional circulations are more vulnerable to
variations in monsoon rainfall (Rajeevan et al., 2008). Therefore, a
general measurement of strength of monsoon systems is not
enough to represent the temporal and spatial distributions. Many
studies have been done on linking monsoon variability with the El
Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (Kripalani and Kulkarni, 1997;
Ranatunge et al., 2003). However, the ENSO can only be considered as influential to the Asian monsoon rainfall patterns to an
extent of its year-to-year variability. In the study of Turner (2013), it
was found that monsoon rainfall in India is likely to increase in the
future. The active-break cycles are expected to intensify with the
increase of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere.
A study on monsoon rainfall variability in Philippines from 1960
to 2010, found that there is a decreasing trend of EASM rainfall total
as well as its rainfall distribution (Cruz et al., 2012). Total rainfall
declined gradually (0.016 to 0.075%) every 10 years. On year 1972,
the rainfall total is the highest (1702 mm) in Philippines. This
happened in synchronization with the Philippine’s great flood
events in July (Gordon, 1973). Extreme daily rainfall events are due
to monsoon depression convection or mid-tropospheric cyclones.
Y.Y. Loo et al. / Geoscience Frontiers 6 (2015) 817e823
The westward and northward propagating of the EASM is influenced by the fluctuations in convection and circulation of rainfall
cycles (May, 2004; Purdue University, 2009).
The evolution of monsoon rainfall in Southeast Asian countries
can be understood by the trends of rainfall totals compiled from
various sources. From the standardized yearly monsoon rainfall
totals in Fig. 5, Kripalani and Kulkarni (1997) investigated the
trends of rainfall using the Cramer’s t-statistics. Decadal mean
precipitation is plotted against the overall mean as the zero line for
the data period. The decadal means above the overall mean are
plotted as positive while means below the overall mean are negative monsoon rainfall anomaly. The monsoon rainfall patterns show
decadal variability which is statistically significant according to
analysis based on the Cramer’s t-statistics. In Fig. 6, the summary of
the results obtained from Cramer’s t-statistics shows that the
transition is one decade for Malaysia and Singapore, which is closer
to the equator; and three decades for the subtropical regions such
as Thailand and Philippines.
4. EASM induced flooding in Southeast Asia
The common definition of a flood or inundation is the accumulation of rain water in amounts large enough to submerge the
land surface. These floods extend out from rivers and lakes, as well
as oceans spreading in-land to cover low-land areas. Floods are said
to be most frequent in Asian countries, especially Southeast Asian
countries, namely the Philippines, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Thailand,
Vietnam, and Cambodia. Most of the floods that occur in Southeast
Asia are associated with the EASM down pour. The flooding events,
previously accepted by the agriculture-based communities as a
positive contribution, had been intensified rapidly by the 20th
century global warming. The frequency of floods has not seized to
increase since the 1970s (Coenraads, 2006). These flooding events
821
Figure 6. Cramer’s t-statistics for yearly monsoon rainfall totals in Malaysia, Singapore,
Thailand and Philippines (Adapted from Kripalani and Kulkarni, 1997).
in Southeast Asia can be used as evidence that monsoon rainfall is
changing.
There is no doubt that precipitation patterns have changed
globally in recent. In Malaysia and some Southeast Asian countries,
increasing intensities of rainfall during the monsoons are not only a
source of major flood but also a triggering cause of major landslide
event (Billa et al., 2004). Monsoon flooding in Southeast Asia have
impacted many people in terms of loss of lives and property
damage. In the Philippines, the recent unusually intense monsoon
rainfall (300 mm) in August 2012 had claimed more than 170 lives.
While according to the flood watchers, 580,445 people had been
evacuated from the flooded capital city, Manila and 3035 houses
were reported damaged. The flooding event which had a total return time of 600 years was accumulated from the Typhoon Saola
and then the Typhoon Haikui (WMO, 2013).
Besides Philippines, the peninsular Malaysia regions including
southern Thailand and northern Malaysia had experienced intense
Figure 5. Standardized yearly monsoon rainfall totals in (a) Malaysia, (b) Singapore, (c) Thailand and (d) Philippines (Kripalani and Kulkarni, 1997).
822
Y.Y. Loo et al. / Geoscience Frontiers 6 (2015) 817e823
Figure 7. Rainfall totals of March 23e30, 2011 in Thailand, resulting a maximum flooding event (Adapted from NASA-Earth Observation, 2011).
EAWM rainfall (300 mm) during mid-December 2005 (NOAA,
2012c). Fig. 7 shows an example of the intensity of rainfall during
an EAWM. Thailand is considered one of the ten worst flood
affected countries of the world as experienced in the September
and October 1980 and the recent March and April 2011 monsoon
flooding that inundated most of southern Thailand (NASA-Earth
Observation, 2011). The severity of the Monsoon flood in 2011
continued until the end of July triggered by the landfall of Tropical
Storm Nock-ten. The flooding spread through the northern and
central provinces of Thailand where in the month of October
floodwaters reached and inundated parts of the capital city of
Bangkok. The resulting consequence of the flood was 13.6 million
people affected and about 815 deaths. Over 20,000 km2 of farmland
was damaged. This had a profound impact on food security for the
entire SEA region as Thailand is a leading exporter of rice, which is a
staple for the region. The World Bank (2011) estimated the economic damages and losses due to the flooding, to be US$ 45.7
Billion. According to Coenraads (2006) these broad-scale floods
covering large areas and caused by monsoon rains are also mostly
common in India and Bangladesh. Northeastern India and
Bangladesh, however, receive their yearly monsoon rainfall during
the wet season from June to end of September.
5. Conclusion
This study has given some insights on the connections between
global warming and monsoon rainfall. It is evident that the distribution of monsoon rainfall is greatly influenced by a number of
weather systems, such as the Arctic Oscillation, Siberian High and
Western Pacific Subtropical High, as well as the complex Asian
topography, i.e. the Tibetan Plateau. The EAWM is regulated by the
Arctic ice which influences the SH weather system. The EASM is
affected by the westward shift of the WPSH and consequently
impacting on the distribution and variability of monsoon precipitation. Excessive monsoon flooding which has become frequent in
recent years in parts of Southeast Asia remain an issue to be
overcome. Understanding the shift and predicting changing trends
of monsoon may be central to managing the floods that impact on
millions of people, damage to lives and property, destruction of
ecology and farmlands and the long term effect on food security.
Acknowledgment
The study was conducted as a part of my review paper dissertation. Thanks are due to University of Nottingham Malaysia
Campus staff for the support and the resources provided during the
study. Thanks to the many sources where information and figures
have been sourced out from.
References
Ashfaq, M., Shi, Y., Tung, W., Trapp, R.J., Gao, X., Pal, J.S., Diffenbaugh, N.S., 2009.
Suppression of South Asian summer monsoon precipitation in the 21st century.
Geophysical Research Letters 36, L01704. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/
2008GL036500.
Billa, L., Mansor, S.B., Mahmud, A.R., 2004. Spatial information technology in flood
early warning system: an overview of theory, application and latest development in Malaysia. Disaster Prevention and Management 13 (5), 356e363.
Brohan, P., Kennedy, J.J., Harris, I., Tett, S.F.B., Jones, P., 2006. Global temperature
record. In: Uncertainty Estimates in Regional and Global Observed Temperature
Changes: a New Dataset from 1850. Journal of Geophysical Research, vol. 111.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006548.
Coenraads, R., 2006. Natural Disasters and How We Cope. Millennium House Pty
Ltd, Elanora Heights, Australia.
Y.Y. Loo et al. / Geoscience Frontiers 6 (2015) 817e823
Cruz, F.T., Narisma, T.G., Villafuerte II, M.Q., Cheng-Chua, K.U., Olaguera, L.M., 2012.
A climatological analysis of the southwest monsoon rainfall in the Philippines.
Atmospheric Research 122, 609e616.
Gordon, A.H., 1973. The great Philippine floods of 1972. Weather 22, 404e415.
Huang, G., Yan, Z., 1999. The East Asian summer monsoon circulation anomaly index
and its inter-annual variations. Chinese Science Bulletin 44, 1325e1329.
Huffman, G.J., Adler, R.F., Arkin, P., Chang, A., Ferraro, R., Gruber, A., Janowiak, J.,
McNab, A., Rudolf, B., Schneider, U., 1997. The global precipitation climatology
project (GPCP) combined precipitation dataset. Bulletin of the American
Meteorological Society 78 (1), 5e20.
Kilaru, S., Goud, B.K., Rao, V.K., 2013. Crustal structure of the western Indian shield:
model based on regional gravity and magnetic data. Geoscience Frontiers 4,
717e728.
Kripalani, R.H., Kulkarni, A., 1997. Rainfall variability over South-east
Asiaeconnections with Indian monsoon and ENSO extremes: new perspectives. International Journal of Climatology 17, 1155e1168.
May, W., 2004. Variability and extremes of daily rainfall during the Indian summer
monsoon in the period 1901e1989. Global and Planetary Change 44, 83e105.
Mishra, D.C., Kumar, M.R., 2014. Proterozoic orogenic belts and rifting of Indian
cratons: geophysical constraints. Geoscience Frontiers 5, 25e41.
MMD (Malaysian Meteorological Department), 2012. Monsoon. Retrieved February
17, 2013 from: http://www.met.gov.my/index.php?option¼com_content
&task¼view&id¼69&Itemid¼160&lang¼english.
NASA-Earth Observation, 2011. Unseasonably Heavy Rain Floods Thailand. Retrieved
January 29, 2014 from: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?
id¼49929.
NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration), 2012a. Arctic Oscillation. Retrieved March 6, 2013 from: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconn
ections/ao/.
NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration), 2012b. Global Surface
Temperature Anomalies. Retrieved February 17, 2013 from: http://www.ncdc.
noaa.gov/cmb-faq/anomalies.php.
NOAA, (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration), 2012c. U.S. and Global
Precipitation. Retrieved March 2, 2013 from: http://www.epa.gov/
climatechange/pdfs/print_precipitation-2012.pdf.
NOAA-NCDC, 2011. Global Analysis-annual 2010. Retrieved January 14, 2014 from:
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2010/13.
OSS (Open Source Systems) Science Solutions, 2013. Arctic Oscillation. Retrieved
March 7, 2013 from: http://ossfoundation.us/projects/environment/globalwarming/arctic-oscillation-ao.
Porter, S.C., 2001. Chinese loess records of monsoon climate during the last glacialinterglacial cycle. Earth-Science Reviews 54, 115e128.
Purdue University, 2009. Weakened monsoon season predicted for South Asia, due
to rising temperatures. Geophysical Research Letters 39. http://dx.doi.org/
823
10.1029/2008GL036500. Retrieved March 2013 from: http://www.sciencedaily.
com/releases/2009/02/090227112307.htm.
Rajeevan, M., Gadgil, S., Bhate, J., 2008. Active and Break Spells of the Indian
Summer Monsoon. NCC Research Report: March 2008. Retrieved March 10,
2013 from: http://www.imdpune.gov.in/ncc_rept/RESEARCH%20%20REPORT%
207.pdf.
Ranatunge, E., Malmgren, B.A., Hayashi, Y., Mikami, T., Morishima, W., Yokozawa, M.,
Nishimori, M., 2003. Changes in the southwest monsoon mean daily rainfall
intensity in Sri Lanka: relationship to the El Niñoesouthern oscillation. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology 197, 1e14.
Reuter, M., Kern, A.K., Harzhauser, M., Kroh, A., Piller, W.E., 2012. Global warming
and south Indian monsoon rainfall e lessons from the mid-miocene. Gondwana
Research. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gr.2012.07.015.
Schewe, J., Levermann, A., 2012. A statistically predictive model for future monsoon
failure in India. Environmental Research Letters 7, 1e9.
Serreze, M.C., Barry, R.G., 2010. Climate change. In: Barry, R.G., Chorley, R.J. (Eds.),
Atmosphere, Weather and Climate. Routledge, Oxon.
SOEST -University of Hawaii, 2013. Prediction of Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall
and Tropical Storm Activity Close at Hand. Retrieved February 6, 2013 from:
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/01/130123101613.htm.
Turner, A., 2013. The Indian Monsoon in a Changing Climate. Retrieved March 10,
2013 from: http://www.rmets.org/weather-and-climate/climate/indian-monso
on-changing-climate.
Wang, L., Li, J., Lu, H., Gu, Z., Rioual, P., Hao, Q., Mackay, A.W., Jiang, W., Cai, B., Xu, B.,
Chu, G., 2012. The East Asian winter monsoon over the last 15,000 years: its
links to high-latitudes and tropical climate systems and complex correlation to
the summer monsoon. Quaternary Science Reviews 32, 131e142.
Wang, B., Xiang, B., Lee, J.Y., 2013. Subtropical high predictability establishes a
promising way for monsoon and tropical storm predictions. Proceedings of
the National Academy of Science of the United States of America 110,
2718e2722.
WMO, (World Meteorological Organization), 2013. Climate Data and Data Related
Products. Retrieved March 2nd, 2013 from: http://www.wmo.int/pages/
themes/climate/climate_Data_and_products.php.
Wolfson, R., 2012. Energy, Environment and Climate, second ed. WW Norton and
Company Inc, New York, pp. 366e370.
World Bank, 2011. The World Bank Supports Thailand’s Post-floods Recovery Effort,
13 December 2011. Retrieved July 17 from: http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/
feature/2011/12/13/world-bank-supports-thailands-post-floods-recovery-effort.
Zhou, T., Yu, R., Zhang, J., Drange, H., Cassou, C., Deser, C., Hodson, D.L.R., SanchezGomez, E., Li, J., Keenlyside, X., Okumura, Y., 2009. Why the western pacific
subtropical high has extended westward since the late 1970s. Journal of Climate
22, 2199e2215.