FORT WORTH, TEXAS
Retail Market Analysis
Presented by Sanil Paul
Acquisitions Associate
www.qthos.com
10th December 2020
Agenda
Access
Demand Generators
Demographics
Macro Economic Variables
Market Trends
2
Ranked among ten best downtowns to live
in the US
Where the West Begins
#1 fastest growing MSA in the US
#13 most populous city in the US
#14 in FORBES’ 25 best cities for young
professionals
Source: www.livability.com, US Census Bureau, Forbes 3
Fort Worth is a fastgrowing suburban
destination, but the retail
prospects are limited due
to demographic and
macroeconomic
challenges
4
Fort Worth cities have
the longest commute
time in Texas
Limited public transportation options and
most places are accessible only by car
Fort Worth commuters have a
journey of 28.3 minutes to the
office
Source: www.walkscore.com / US News Rankings
5
Economy dependent
on Transportation,
Aerospace and
Energy Sectors
Top employers operate in high
risky sectors and no major
Universities present
Company
Employment
American Airlines
25,000
Lockheed Martin
13,690
Fort Worth ISD
12,000
Drivers
Logistics & Transport
Manufacturing
Challenges
Oil Price
Volatility
Airline Industry
Job loses
No major
Universities 6
Only One Third
Population above 25
Have Some College
Education
Less educated workforce an
impediment for businesses to shift
base to Fort Worth
Source: US Census Bureau, Survey 1-year estimates.
7
Low Household Income
and Unfavorable
Demographics
Median Age
Median Property
Value
33.2
$189,300
US Median:
US Median:
38.2
$229,700
Median Household
Income
Poverty Rate
$58,448
16%
US Median:
US Median:
$61,937
13.1%
Uneducated youth presents a
challenge along with 6% lesser
household income
8
40%
35%
Spending Patterns
Unfavorable for Retail
Growth
Housing expenditure share
significantly higher and budget
spent on food and apparel lower
than US average
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
US
Source: US Census Bureau
Fort Worth
9
High Vacancy Forecast and Low Net Absorption
Vacancy is projected to reach 7.7% by 2024 and Net Absorption will be
down 147% from peak
Source: Costar
10
Low Probability of Immediate Leasing
50% probability for a retail project to wait six months before being able to
lease
Source: Costar
11
Asking Rent Expected to Fall
Asking rent per sf estimated to decrease 2.6% in 2021
Source: Costar
12
High Expected Property Prices
Cap Rate has not increased significantly even during the pandemic and
expected to reduce further, increasing the property prices
Source: Costar
13
Recommendation
Fort Worth does not present a good
return on investment as the risks far
outweigh the benefits
High quality
housing
Chaotic
traffic
conditions
Low cost of
living
Less
educated
workforce
High
dependen
ce on
risky
sectors
High quality
amenities
Low price
to benefit
ratio of
assets
14
Question & Answer
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