EIB 20603 SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT
TASK 1: DEMAND PLANNING &
FORECASTING
GROUP: _4_
Student Name
Id No.
Muhammad Zahier Bin Mohamad Yunos
62214119468
Nur Syazwina Binti Kamarul Azhar
62214119370
Nur Najihah Binti Abdul Karim
62212119157
Syarah Nadiah Binti Rosli
62212119570
Nur Aishah Binti Adnan
62212119064
Problem 1
You are the manager of a watches showroom that sells watches in a territory. You are
familiar that there has been a pattern of sales and data from the sales of the last three quarters
can be a fair indicator for future sales. You may forecast sales using a 3-period moving
average with the following data:
MONTH
SALES(RM)
1
45,000
2
42,000
3
46,000
4
48,000
5
44,000
6
47,000
a) Compute the simple moving average forecast for quarter 4,5,6. (15 marks)
ANSWER:
MONTH
SALES(RM)
Forecast
1
45,000
2
42,000
3
46,000
4
48,000
44,333.33
5
44,000
45,333.33
6
47,000
46,000
Quarter 4
45,000 + 42,000 + 46000
3
= 44,333,33
Quarter 5
42,000 + 46,000 + 48,000
3
= 45,333.33
Quarter 6
46,000 + 48,000 + 44,000
3
= 46,000
b) Compute the weighted moving average with the weights (0.4, 0.3, 0.2 that starts from
quarter 4,5,6) (15 marks)
ANSWER:
MONTH
SALES(RM)
Weight
1
45,000
0.2
2
42,000
0.3
3
46,000
0.4
4
48,000
40,000
5
44,000
41,400
6
47,000
41,200
Quarter 4
0.2(45,000) + 0.3(4200) + 0.4(46,00)
= 40,000
Forecast
Quarter 5
0.2(42,000) + 0.3(46,000) + 0.4(48,000)
= 41,400
Quarter 6
0.2(46,000) + 0.3(48,000) + 0.4(44,000)
= 41,200
c) Assuming for quarter 2 an initial forecast of 18000? Alpha = 0.40, calculate the
exponential smoothing forecast for quarter 3,4,5,6 (20 marks)
ANSWER:
MONTH
SALES(RM)
1
45,000
2
42,000
18,000
3
46,000
27,600
4
48,000
34,960
5
44,000
40,176
6
47,000
41,705.60
1-0.40= 0.6
Quarter 3
0.4(42,000) + 0.6(18000)
=27600
Quarter 4
0.4(46,000) + 0.6(27,600)
= 34,960
Quarter 5=
0.4(48,000) + 0.6(34,960)
= 40,176
Forecast
Quarter 6
0.4(44,000) + 0.6(40,176)
= 41,705.60