NAME: NNAJI EKENE VINCENT
DEPARTMENT: INDUSTRIAL TECHNICAL EDUATION
INTRODUCTION
Before 1945 the colonial government undertook no serious comprehensive planning.
Nigeria's earliest national plans, the 1946-55 Ten-Year Plan of Development and
Welfare (with plan revisions, 1951-55) and the 1955-60 plan (later extended to 1962),
were framed by colonial administrators. As the authors of the First National
Development Plan, 1962-68 (henceforth, first plan) wrote, these "were not `plans,' in
the truest sense of the word . . . [but] a series of projects which had not been
coordinated or related to any overall economic target." After 1960, however,
development planning had a broad scope, encompassing government policies to
achieve national economic objectives, such as accelerated growth and higher levels of
average material welfare. This planning affected the policies of such agencies as the
central bank, state-owned enterprises, the Ministry of Education, marketing boards,
state-level departments, and extension services.
Nigerian plans included economic forecasts, policies toward the private sector, and a
list of proposed public expenditures. Plans did not constitute commitments by public
departments to spend funds. Although Nigerian political leaders made decisions about
general objectives and priorities for the first plan, foreign economists were the main
authors of the actual document. Its authors favored decentralized decision making by
private units, disregard of major discrepancies between financial and social
profitability, and high economic payoffs from directly productive investments (as
opposed to indirect returns from social overheads). They discouraged increased taxes
on the wealthy (out of a fear of dampening private incentive), and advocated a
conservative monetary and fiscal policy emphasizing a relatively small plan, openness
to foreign trade and investment, and reliance on overseas assistance. Foreign aid was
set at onehalf of public sector investment.
Nobel economist W. Arthur Lewis has suggested that the main weaknesses of the
1962-68 plan were incomplete feasibility studies and inadequate evaluation of
projects, accompanied by meager public participation, followed by excessive political
intervention in economic decisions. Moreover, insufficient attention was paid to the
small indigenous sector, and the machinery for implementing developments in the
public sector was unsatisfactory. Lewis noted that the most important aspects of
Nigeria's 1962-68 plan were "how the government proposes to raise the money and to
recruit the personnel to carry out its objectives."
Postwar reconstruction, restoring productive capacity, overcoming critical bottlenecks,
and achieving self-reliance were major goals of the Second National Development
Plan (1970-74). The replacement cost of physical assets damaged and destroyed in the
civil war with the secessionist Igbo area in the southeast, then known as Biafra, was
estimated to exceed N600 million (then about US$900 million).
The United Nations (UN) Center for Development Planning, Projections, and Policies
observed that Nigeria's real growth in GDP between 1970 and 1974 was 12.3 percent
per year. The annual target had been only 6.2 percent. Nigerian growth could be
explained by factors largely outside the planners' purview--rapid oil industry growth
and sharply increasing oil prices.
Announced in March 1975, the Third National Development Plan (1975-80)
envisioned a twelvefold increase in the annual rate of public capital expenditures over
the previous plan period. This document included the statement, "There will be no
savings and foreign exchange constraints during the third plan period and beyond."
The document outlined ambitious plans to expand agriculture, industry, transport,
housing, water supplies, health facilities, education, rural electrification, community
development, and state programs. The third plan also designated substantial funds for
prestige projects, such as Festival of African Culture (FESTAC) in Lagos.
Amid the euphoria of the 1974 oil price boom, the Ministry of Economic
Development approved and added numerous projects for other ministries not
supported by a proper appraisal of technical feasibility, costs and benefits, or the
technical and administrative arrangements required to establish and operate the
projects. According to Sayre P. Schatz, who advised the Ministry of Transport while it
prepared feasibility studies for the plan in 1974,
"Economic reasoning gave way before economic enthusiasm," and the necessary
coordination and implementation were ignored.
Inflationary minimum wage and administrative salary increases after October 1974, in
combination with the slowing of the economy, made budget shortfalls inevitable. In
June 1975, several state and local governments did not receive their monthly subsidies
from the federal government. Just before the July 29, 1975, coup in which head of
state General Yakubu Gowon was toppled, government workers in several areas
threatened to impair vital services unless their June wages were paid.
In March 1976, in response to an economy overheated by demands for new programs
and higher wages, General Olusegun Obasanjo, then head of state, pointed out that
petroleum revenue was not a cure-all. Many projects had to be postponed, scaled
down, or canceled when oil-revenue-based projections made in 1974-75 later proved
too optimistic. Projects tended to be retained for political reasons, not because they
were considered socially or economically useful by the Central Planning Office of the
Supreme Military Council.
The civilian government that tack office on October 1, 1979, postponed the beginning
of the fourth plan (1981-85) for nine months. Whereas the plan's guidelines indicated
that local governments were to be involved in planning and execution, such
involvement was not feasible because local governments lacked the staff and expertise
to accept this responsibility. The plan was also threatened by falling oil revenues and
an increased need for imported food that had resulted from delays in agricultural
modernization. Projected to rise 12.1 percent annually, exports actually fell 5.9
percent yearly during the plan, as a recession among the nations of the Organisation
for Economic Co-operation and Development reduced demand for Third World
imports. As exports declined, the capacity to import construction materials and related
capital goods also fell, reducing growth in the construction, transport,
communications, utilities, and housing sectors.
Nigeria was heavily dependent on agriculture, with the sector accounting for more
than 40 percent of pre-1973 GDP. But in the decade up to 1983, agricultural output in
Nigeria declined 1.9 percent and exports fell 7.9 percent. Agricultural imports as a
share of total imports rose from 3 percent in the late 1960s to 7 percent in the early
1980s. Nigeria's unfavorable agricultural development resulted from the loss of
competitiveness among farm exports as the real value of the Nigerian naira
appreciated substantially from 1970 to 1972 and from 1982 to 1983.
Thanks in large part to the overthrow of Nigeria's second civilian administration, the
Second Republic headed by President Shehu Shagari, at the end of 1983 and of the
military government of General Muhammadu Buhari in 1985, the Fifth National
Development Plan was postponed until 1988-92. Continuing the emphases of the
SAP, the fifth plan's objectives were to devalue the naira, remove import licenses,
reduce tariffs, open the economy to foreign trade, promote nonoil exports through
incentives, and achieve national self-sufficiency in food production. The drafters of
the fifth plan sought to improve labor productivity through incentives, privatization of
many public enterprises, and various government measures to create employment
opportunities.
In late 1989, the administration of General Ibrahim Babangida abandoned the concept
of a fixed five-year plan. Instead, a three-year "rolling plan" was introduced for 199092 in the context of more comprehensive fifteen- to twenty-year plans. A rolling plan,
considered more suitable for an economy facing uncertainty and rapid change, is
revised at the end of each year, at which point estimates, targets, and projects are
added for an additional year. Thus, planners would revise the 1990-92 threeyear
rolling plan at the end of 1990, issuing a new plan for 1991-93. In effect, a plan is
renewed at the end of each year, but the number of years remains the same as the plan
rolls forward.
OBJECTIVES OF THE FIRST AND SECOND ROLLING PLAN
The First National Rolling Plan covered the period 1990-1992. The main objective
was to consolidate the achievements made so far in the implementation of the
Structural Adjustment programme and address the pressing problems still facing the
economy. One of the key priority programmes of the First National Rolling Plan was
the strengthening of the on-going programmes of the National Directorate of
Employment.
The Second National Rolling Plan (1993-1995) marks the beginning of the second
cycle of three-year Rolling Plan. The general policy measures of the Second National
Rolling Plan include tackling the observable lapses and inefficiencies in the operation
of monetary and credit instruments, low level of capacity utilization of industries and
the rising trends of unemployment.
The 1994/96 and the 1997/99 Rolling Plans have employment generation as its
priority programmes (National Planning Commission, 2000). With the returned to
democratic governance in Nigeria, the new administration started development
planning in 1999 with the initiation of a four-year medium term plan document, the
National Economic Direction (1999-2003). The plan had the primary object of
pursuing a strong, virile and broad- based economy with adequate capacity to absorb
externally generated shocks. While being a new plan document, the objectives and
policy direction was not significantly different from that to which the country has
followed since the introduction of SAP. NEEDS is described as Nigeria’s plan for
prosperity. It is a four-year medium term plan for the period 2003 to 2007. NEEDS is
a federal government plan, which also expected the states and local governments to
have their counterpart plans- the State Economic Empowerment and Development
Strategy (SEEDS) and the Local Government Economic Empowerment and
Development Strategy (LEEDS) respectively.
From the above review of government development planning from 1970 till date, it is
obvious that employment creation has featured prominently in all the plans. This
underscores the importance attached to employment by successive governments in
Nigeria. The impact of these employment promotional schemes on the unemployment
levels in Nigeria requires periodic assessment with a view to determining the extent to
which plans meet its stated development objectives.
In summary
The first rolling plan in 1990 was to solve the unemployment problem in the country
after several other plans had been tried by succive governments, while the second
rolling plan were to reduce inflation and exchange rate instability, maintain
infrastructure, achieve agricultural self-sufficiency, and reduce the burden of
structural adjustment on the most vulnerable social groups.
IMPACT OF FIRST AND SECOND ROLLING PLAN ON TEVET
DEVELOPMENT
TVET as an academic programme is designed to ensure that individuals in addition to
acquiring coginitive abilities also acquires skills that can help them become a
contributor to the national growth. As such, the the development plan first of all has
the responsibilities to develop infrastructure and facility that can help improve the
human capacity of the citizen of the country.
While the rolling plan was develop to reduce inflation and exchange rate instability,
maintain infrastructure, achieve agricultural self-sufficiency, and reduce the burden of
structural adjustment on the most vulnerable social groups thus giving room for
TEVET to achieve its goals through utilization of these infrastructures.
Also the rolling plan was a strategy put in place by the military government to stop
the unemployment at the 90’s which is also in line with the objectives of TEVET to
reduce the dependency ratio.
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN DEVELOPMENT PLAN AND ROLLING PLAN
Introduction
The first development plan was just after independence in 1962-68, but after the civil
war the second development plan was instituted this was 1970-74, the goal of the
seconddevelopment plan unlike the first was not only to achieve self-reliance but also
to aid reconstruction in Postwar nigeria, restoring productive capacity, overcoming
critical bottlenecks. The third development plan in march 1975 had very ambitious
plan that failed to put into consideration so many key issues, this caused a major
contraction in the economy. It was blamed for coups and succession of government
overthrows. All this resulted in the maassive economic down-turn that caused serious
unemployements and hardship. Which brought in place the first rolling plan in 1990 to
solve the unemployment problem in the country after several other plans had been
tried by succive governments.
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN DEVELOPMENT PLAN AND ROLLING PLAN
The develop plan was put in place to foster the rapid development of the country, but
the rolling plann was called in to correct an economic problem faceed at that point in
time.
The development plan was for a period of five years, while the rolling paln is for three
years.
The development plan was also instituted in the present democratic despensation, but
the rolling plan was only in the milirty regime of General Ibrahim Babangida.
The development plans are always terminated at the end of the planned period while
uncompleted plans are rolled into the next year in the national rolling plan.
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