Uploaded by kirk.osborn

Predicting the Future - Responding Today

“It’s tough to make predictions. Especially about the future!” Yogi Bera
But what if you had a time machine to see into the future by just one day?
By adding Predictive Analytics and Machine Learning elements Digital Glyde built a platform that is
adding significant value for electric utilities.
40 Million meters globally
sample data every 15 minutes
The Mean Absolute Percentage Error
(MAPE) for prediction of tomorrow’s
electrical demand can fluctuate wildly
during peak events like hot Texas heat
waves or unexpected winter storms.
Business consequences included
bankruptcy for some Texas utilities
who were un-hedged last summer
when their forecast models were off
and per megawatt hour prices soared
from $30 to $9,000.
Forecast accuracy was over 3x times
better, MAPE of under 0.54% for
utilities using the platform created by
Digital Glyde for our partner
Tomorrow’s electricity demand
forecast over 3x improvement
You can have these advantages and
we would like to help you.
For more information on this capability please see: https://aithority.com/machine-learning/innowatts-dayahead-load-forecast-outperforms-ercot-during-late-summer-heatwave/
TopGun fighter pilot trainer, Col. Boyd coined a key concept for winning dogfights and battles
which is also used effectively today in business – the OODA Loop. Simply put whoever can Observe,
Orient, Decide and Act faster on the most complete data wins in a dogfight or business.
More accurate forecast for tomorrows electricity demand is one example of improving your OODA
loop with better observation – knowing the future.
You can also improve your OODA Loop by reorienting your business based on new realities like the
sector demand changes you’re seeing with COVID.
How has COVID affected electricity
Seeing information like this as new
situations develop may give decision
makers a better context about their
choices going forward.
This is another example from the data and
apps from our partner Innowatts.
For more details please see:
Data: Innowatts; Data includes four power grids covering
Northeast & Mid-Atlantic, Texas, Midwest and California
Chart: Axios Visual
On the topic of COVID, How will you respond to changes as they occur? One of the most important
aspects of data science is asking the right questions - improving your OODA Loop with valid
observations and orientation for your decisions going forward.
While news outlets exclaim that COVID
cases are on the rise it is important to see
the truth clearly.
For example if only one person in Mexico
tests positive for COVID next week, then it
could be truthfully reported that COVID is
on the rise in Mexico, but you’d miss the
context needed to make good choices.
By unmasking the data you need for better
business decisions our data science team
discovered active COVID cases in Houston
and surrounding Harris County actually
peaked eight weeks ago.
Next week we’re publishing these results as well as data for every country and US county. How do
these observations change your decision frame?
Kirk Osborn
Chief Client Officer
Digital Glyde, Inc.