Global Change 9/21/20, 12:56 AM Global Change Meteorology/Agronomy/Env. Science/Env. Studies 404/504 Spring 2015, MWF 11:00-11:50 p.m. Room G541 Agronomy Instructor William J. Gutowski, Jr. 3021 Agronomy gutowski@iastate.edu Teaching Assistant Martin Coolidge coolidge@iastate.edu (Image courtesy of http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov) Course Description Current understanding of how climate evolves under natural and human influences. Global energy balance, structure and circulation of the atmosphere and oceans, role of land and snow/ice processes, climate variability, climate modeling, implications of climate change for natural and human systems, policy and ethical issues of climate change. Course Objectives To understand the physical basis for climate the scientific evidence for global and regional climate change how to apply this knowledge to your discipline Structure of Course The class meets 3 times a week. Lectures will introduce topics for the majority of the semester. Some meetings during the semester may be devoted to a seminar-style format where we will critique current journal articles in various relevant topics or do other types of class exercises. In some cases, a laptop or other internet-ready device may be useful. This course is administered through Blackboard Learn. You will need to use it for a variety of course ativities (quizzes, https://meteor.geol.iastate.edu/classes/mt404/ Page 1 of 12 Global Change 9/21/20, 12:56 AM exams, lectures, some discussions, some computations, etc.) The course is listed there as MTEOR/AGRON/ENSCI/ENV_S 404/504 (Spring 2015) for all students registered in this course, whether 404 or 504 and whatever of the cross-listings you registered under. Readings Parts of chapters relating to each week's topic will be assigned from the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) or Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. You can download relevant chapters from this link. Some chapters are rather long; the lectures will highlight the key points you need to learn. Journal articles to be discussed in class will be linked to the Blackboad Learn page in either the Assignments, the Media Library or the Current News links. Readings from the book Climate Change: Picturing the Science by Schmidt and Wolfe will be assigned to provide additional understanding of the material. You should order this book from Amazon.com (Go to a direct link here) or other preferred book seller. (It's possible that the Union bookstore might have a few copies on hand.) I do provide scans of early readings in the course, since you most likely will not have the book already. They will appear in the Media Library. Other relevant materials will be linked as appropriate. Quizzes Quizzes are administered through Blackboard Learn. Quizz previews are available for download ahead of time. Watch for notices from me. You may find it useful to look at the quiz preview first before attempting to take it online. The quiz preview includes all the questions in the actual quiz, plus additional questions. Seminar The in-class seminar meetings will require participation a written report and participation in discussion by break-out groups and, on occasion, a written report. You should read the further details for seminar reports. Attendance is required for seminar meetings and other in-class exercises. Major, overriding concepts (not specific details) from each assigned seminar paper are fair game for exam questions. Discussion Groups Online discussion and classroom exercises will use assigned discussion groups. You can download the discussion group list. (I will notify you when it is available.) Groups are designed to provide a mix of the backgrounds of students in the class, but also be small enough that everyone should feel they have opportunity to contribute. Class Exercises 1. EPA CO2 emissions inventories Class exercise: Instructions Article: EPA's 2010 emissions inventory Article: Focus first on methane and soot? Additional (based on 2010 data): Factsheet on 2010 data Figures of some data Summary of data 2. Global Energy Balance: Background and tasks 3. Wind power controversies Controversy in Western Massachusetts https://meteor.geol.iastate.edu/classes/mt404/ Page 2 of 12 Global Change 9/21/20, 12:56 AM Wind power map for Massachusetts Controversy in Maryland Wind power map for Maryland Positive Op-Ed Appalachian Mountain Club Wind Power Siting Model Wind research poster Online Dialogue The discussion will use Blackboard's tools to organize it. The online discussion focuses on a particular topics of interest in climate change. Further information on how to contribute to the dialogue and grading criteria appears at this location. For 504 (graduate-level) students: some of the online dialogue may require a written report in addition to participation in online discussion by break-out groups. You should read the further details for online dialogue reports. The online discussion and other online activities contribute to your grade. Major, overriding concepts (not specific details) from each assigned seminar paper are fair game for exam questions. Exams Exams will be administered to on campus (or nearby students) through the Iowa State's Engineering-LAS Online Testing Center. You should go to this link before your exams to find the locations and to review the General Instructions and the Rules. Note especially the strict rules of operation for the center, including the hours of access. Also, taking an exam early in an exam period is generally better than doing it later, as you may encounter delays from heavy usage of the Testing Center. If you are too far from campus to use the Online Testing Center, you must make provisions to have a qualified proctor administer your exam! Please do this early in the semester to avoid problems with trying to rush approvals. You should read the information on Proctored Testing under all the categories on that page. There are strict requirements that the proctor and the site of the proctored exam must satisfy. Make sure that both you and the prospective proctor read these requirements first before filling out any application. Please be sure that you can satisfy these requirements early in the course. Note that the proctor must fill out an Off-Campus Proctor Application. Term Papers Students enrolled in the graduate-level version course (Mteor/Agron/EnSci/EnvS 504) will be required to write a 10-12 page term paper and submit an outline for topic approval. Students in the 504 course are required to pick their topics and to present their findings orally during the last week of classes. Relevant milestones for term papers appear in the course schedule below. Please read the further details for term papers. Note the first deadline: January 30, for paper topics. Grading 404 (Undergraduate level) Quizzes Seminar Participation and Reports Mid-term Exam Final 25 % 20 % 25 % 30 % 504 (Graduate level) https://meteor.geol.iastate.edu/classes/mt404/ Page 3 of 12 Global Change Quizzes Seminar Participation & Critiques Mid-Term Exam Final Term Paper & Oral Presentation 9/21/20, 12:56 AM 10 % 15 % 20 % 30 % 25 % Email I communicate frequently with the class by email. The email address I have for all students is their @iastate.edu address. Students who prefer to use some other email address should follow these instructions to automatically forward your iastate.edu email to another system. When sending email to me, please start the SUBJECT line with the words "Global Change". This will help me greatly in finding your emails to me. Pre-recorded Lectures I use pre-recorded lectures for the core of the course material. To view and listen to them, you simply need to click on the link for the lecture identified as pre-recorded lectures in the course schedule, so long as you have an appropriate browser with the Macromedia Flash Player extension included. Typically, this extension is already in your browser, but if it is not, you will be asked if you want it downloaded and installed on your machine. Basically, Windows and Macintosh OS X machines are ok. Linux machines should work, but success is not guaranteed. I would like to know about whatever problems you encounter, so please send me an email on those, even if you fix the problem yourself. For best visual clarity, you should make your browser window as large as possible. If you are listening to the lectures with others around you, out of courtesy, please use headphones. Academic Dishonesty The class will follow Iowa State University’s policy on academic dishonesty. Anyone suspected of academic dishonesty will be reported to the Dean of Students Office. See the Academic Misconduct page for further detail. Disability Accommodation Iowa State University complies with the Americans with Disabilities Act and Sect 504 of the Rehabilitation Act. If you have a disability and anticipate needing accommodations in this course, please contact (instructor name) to set up a meeting, ideally early in the semester or as soon as you become aware of your need. Before meeting with (instructor name), you will need to obtain a SAAR form with recommendations for accommodations from the Disability Resources Office, located in Room 1076 on the main floor of the Student Services Building. Their telephone number is 515-294-7220 or email disabilityresources@iastate.edu. Dead Week This class follows the Iowa State University Dead Week policy as noted in section 10.6.4 of the Faculty Handbook. Harassment and Discrimination https://meteor.geol.iastate.edu/classes/mt404/ Page 4 of 12 Global Change 9/21/20, 12:56 AM Iowa State University strives to maintain our campus as a place of work and study for faculty, staff, and students that is free of all forms of prohibited discrimination and harassment based upon race, ethnicity, sex (including sexual assault), pregnancy, color, religion, national origin, physical or mental disability, age, marital status, sexual orientation, gender identity, genetic information, or status as a U.S. veteran. Any student who has concerns about such behavior should contact his/her instructor, Student Assistance at 515-294-1020 or email dso-sas@iastate.edu, or the Office of Equal Opportunity and Compliance at 515-294-7612. Religious Accommodation If an academic or work requirement conflicts with your religious practices and/or observances, you may request reasonable accommodations. Your request must be in writing, and your instructor or supervisor will review the request. You or your instructor may also seek assistance from the Dean of Students Office or Office of Equal Opportunity and Compliance at 515-294-7612. Contact Information If you are experiencing, or have experienced, a problem with any of the above issues, email academicissues@iastate.edu. Acknowledgment This offering of Mteor/Agron/EnvSci/EnvSt 404/505 is a major revision of the version taught for several years by Prof. Gene Takle. Despite these changes, the overall goals and inspiration for the course stems from the earlier developments by Prof. Takle, whose efforts are much appreciated. W. Gutowski's Away Schedule Because I am actively involved in research on climate change and its impacts, I will have to be out of town at times during the semester for various program and project meetings. Some of this will involve my ongoing work with the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). In all cases, I should have access to email during at least part of the time I am away. Please keep in mind that I may not be in the same time zone, so replies may be slow. Since nearly all of the course is available and can be followed online, through Blackboard and the class web page, I hope my travel will not be much of a disruption. My travel schedule: 29-31 January 2015 (Thurs-Sat): Regional Arctic System Model project meeting (Boulder, CO) 23-28 February 2015 (Mon-Sat): Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment - Science Advisory Team Meeting (Norrköping, Sweden) 4-5 March 2015 (Wed-Thurs): NCAR Community Earth System Model's Societal Dimensions Working Group winter meeting (Boulder, CO) 6-11 April (Mon-Sat): WCRP Joint Scientific Committee (JSC) and WCRP Modeling Advisory Council (WMAC), Geneva, Switzerland 29 April - 2 May (Wed-Sat): Science Advisory Board and Program Annual Meeting, Canadian Network for Regional Climate and Weather Processes, Montreal, Canada Other meetings may occur during the semester, but I will try to avoid them as much as possible and let you know well in advance. Course Schedule This is the intended schedule for lectures and other assignments. Note that I may add other assignments. https://meteor.geol.iastate.edu/classes/mt404/ Page 5 of 12 Global Change 9/21/20, 12:56 AM The Testing Center schedule for exams may change. Watch for announcements about this. Module Date Topic Source Other Materials 1 12 January 2015 Introductions - Assigned reading:Schmidt & Wolfe Preface, p. xixii; Introduction, p. 1-3 1 Read and listen to material in Blackboard under the "Course Information" link (under links on the left side of the Blackboard page for this course). Read the information above about this course on this web page and pages linked linked to it. 14-16 January 2015 IPCC Working Group-I Overview of Climate Change Science Summary for Policy Makers - AR4 (ppt) Summary of AR5 by T. Stocker (pdf) Uncertainty Guidance - AR4 (ppt) Pre-recorded lecture: Summary for Policy Makers - AR4 Pre-recorded lecture: Uncertainty Guidance - AR4 19 January 1 Summary of AR5 by T. Stocker (pdf) An alternate summary of the AR5 WG I report - in haiku (pdf) Assigned reading: S&W Introduction, p. 7-9 ML King Day 21 January 2015 Historical Overview 1 Summary for Policy Makers AR4 Summary for Policy Makers AR5 Uncertainty Guidance - AR4 Uncertainty Guidance - AR5 Background (from earlier GC courses) 23 January 2015 IPCC Reports AR4-WGI-Chapter 1 Historical overview from the American Institute of Physics IPCC Reports AR4-WGI-Chapter 2 Assigned reading: S&W Commonly Used Terms, p. 10-15 Atmospheric Composition and Radiative Forcing Evolution of atmospheric carbon dioxide 2 26 - 30 January 2015 https://meteor.geol.iastate.edu/classes/mt404/ IPCC Reports AR4-WGI-Chapter Assigned reading: S&W Page 6 of 12 Global Change 9/21/20, 12:56 AM Observed Climate: Surface & Atmosphere 3 Animations in the lecture: Animations of climatic fields (courtesy of Geography Dept., Univ. Oregon) Surface air temperature annual cycle Precipitation annual cycle 30 January 2015 2 504 term paper topic due 2 February 2015 IPCC Reports AR4-WGI-Chapter 4 4 February 2015 Observed Climate: Oceans & Sea Level 2 6 February 2015 Paleoclimate Assigned reading: S&W 27-34 Assigned reading: Box 4.1 in AR4WGI-Chapter 4 (page 367) Observed Climate: Snow, ice, permafrost 2 19-27. IPCC Reports AR4-WGI-Chapter 5 Assigned reading: Box 5.1 in AR4WGI-Chapter 5 (page 397) IPCC Reports AR4-WGI-Chapter 6 Assigned reading: S&W p.135-148 Assigned reading: Box 6.3 in AR4WGI-Chapter 6 (page 461) Assigned reading: FAQ 5.1 in AR5WGI-Chapter 5 (page 392) 2 9 February 2015 In-class exercise (attendance required): Global Energy Balance: Background and tasks https://meteor.geol.iastate.edu/classes/mt404/ Letter co-signed by W. Gutowski to governor, legislature & presidential candidates (November 2011): Article about Page 7 of 12 Global Change 9/21/20, 12:56 AM letter with link to letter. A critical blog A more humorous commentary 3 11-13 February 2015 IPCC Reports AR4-WGI-Chapter 7 Assigned reading: S&W p.148-155 Assigned reading:Box 7.4 in AR4-WGIChapter 7 (page 540) Biogeochemistry & Climate (Note: For part of this topic, you should follow the online lecture.) Assigned reading:FAQ 6.2 in AR5WGI-Chapter 6 (page 544) 3 13 February 2015 In-class exercise (attendance required) Readings for in-class discussion: Essay: Stewart Brand in Nature (2007) Philip W. Boyd: News & Views in Nature Climate Change (2007) The Laws of Global Warming: Carlson in Iowa Now (2012) Geoengineering Patents: Cressey in Nature (2012) Kolbert in the New Yorker (2009). [WARNING: Language in this article may be offensive to some. Please contact Prof. Gutowski if you have problems with language used.] Notes from the class discussion. 3 16-18 February 2015 IPCC Reports AR4-WGI-Chapter 8 Climate Models Assigned reading: S&W p.73-80 Assigned reading:Box 8.1 in AR4-WGIChapter 8 (page 632) Assigned reading:FAQ 9.1 in AR5- https://meteor.geol.iastate.edu/classes/mt404/ Page 8 of 12 Global Change 9/21/20, 12:56 AM WGI-Chapter 9 (page 824) 3 20 February 2015 IPCC Reports AR4-WGI-Chapter 8 Assigned reading:Box 9.2 in AR5-WGIChapter 9 (page 769) Climate Models (continued) 3 23-27 February 2015 Assigned reading: S&W p.195-199 IPCC Reports AR4-WGI-Chapter 9 Assigned reading: FAQ 9.1 (page 696) and FAQ 9.2 (pages 703-703) in AR4-WGIChapter 9 (page 632) Attribution of Changes Assigned reading: FAQ 10.1 (pages 894895) and Box 10.1 (pages 875876) in AR5WGI-Chapter 10 (page 632) 4 2-6 March 2015 IPCC Reports AR4-WGI-Chapter 10 Assigned reading: S&W p.199-209 Assigned reading: SRES Emissions Scenarios and FAQ 10.1 (page 783)in AR4WG1-Chapter 10. Projected Future Changes https://meteor.geol.iastate.edu/classes/mt404/ Assigned reading: Box 11.1 (pages 959961) and FAQ 11.1 (pages 964965) in AR5WGI-Chapter 11 and FAQ 12.2 (pages 1084Page 9 of 12 Global Change 9/21/20, 12:56 AM 1085) and FAQ 12.3 (pages 1106-1107) in AR5-WGIChapter 12. 4 9 March 504 term paper outline due 9 - 13 March 2015 MID-TERM EXAM Administered by the Engineering-LAS Online Testing Center. If using external proctor, you need to have received approval well before this time. 9-13 March 2015 IPCC Reports AR4-WGIChapters 1-8 + AR5 equivalent IPCC Reports AR4-WGI-Chapter 11 Assigned reading: FAQ 13.1 (pages 1148-1149) in AR5-WGIChapter 13 and FAQ 14.1 (pages 12281229) and FAQ 14.2 (page 1256-1257) in AR5-WGIChapter 14. Regional Changes 16-20 March 4 Spring Break 23 March 2015 Regional Changes (cont'd.) 5 25 - 30 March 2015 IPCC Reports AR4-WGI-Chapter 11 IPCC Reports AR4-WGIIChapter 3 Impacts: Water Resources AR5-WGII-SPM (key points) 5 5 1-3 April 2015 3 April 2015 https://meteor.geol.iastate.edu/classes/mt404/ Assigned reading: S&W p.95-111 Impacts: Ecosystems (Note: For part of this topic, you should follow the online lecture.) IPCC Reports AR4-WGIIChapter 4 Assigned reading: Box 3.1 (page 195) and Box 3.2 (page 197) in WG-II, AR4WGII-Chapter 3 - In-class exercise (attendance required) Readings for in-class discussion: Page 10 of 12 Global Change 9/21/20, 12:56 AM Hassol in EOS (2008) Akasofu in EOS (2008) Boykoff and Boykoff in Global Environmental Change (2004) - Notes from the class discussion. 5 6 April 2015 IPCC Reports AR4-WGIIChapter 8 Impacts: Human Health 6 April 504 term paper due for peer review 5 8-10 April 2015 Impacts: Agriculture 5 13 April 2015 6 13 April 2015 Impacts: Coastal Systems (Note: For this topic, you should follow the online lecture.) Assigned reading: Box 8.4 (page 403) and Box 8.5 (page 413) in WG-II, AR4WGII-Chapter 8 IPCC Reports AR4-WGIIChapter 6 - In-class exercise (attendance required) Readings for in-class discussion: Harte in Population and Environment (2007) Potts in Population and Enviroment (2007) Monbiot in The Global Warming Reader (2009) Kalnay slides on population issues. Notes from the class discussion. 13 April 504 term paper peer reviews due 6 15-20 April 2015 Skeptics 7 22 April 2015 7 24 April 2015 27 April https://meteor.geol.iastate.edu/classes/mt404/ - - Development of a Climate Change Assessment: An Example - old version Development of a Climate Change Assessment: An Example - new version U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) Synthesis and Assessment Report 3-3 Supplementary Documents NOAA news release and companion brochure Future Directions (updated) - - 504 term paper: Final versions due Page 11 of 12 Global Change 9/21/20, 12:56 AM 27 April 2015 1. Presentation - Zhang 2. Presentation - Fingerle (pdf version) GC504 term paper presentations 3. Presentation - Togliatti 4. Presentation - Roby 29 April 2015 (Do finishing work for the class) - 1 May 2015 (Do finishing work for the class) - 2-8 May 2015 Hours: See ELO Testing Center hours. Final Exam Administered by Engineering-LAS Online Testing Center. Additional Sources of Information: Encyclopedia of Earth Skeptical Science Gristmill's How to talk to a climate skeptic IPCC Working Group III report (Images courtesy of USGS EROS Data Center: Himalayas, Deforestation in Bolivia, Namibian Desert) https://meteor.geol.iastate.edu/classes/mt404/ Page 12 of 12