QNMP and QNDF: Review and Recommendations – May 2012
MASTER PLAN 2010-2032 AND
QATAR NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT
FRAMEWORK:
PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL
REVIEW AND
RECOMMENDATIONS
DRAFT REPORT
Revision: No. 001
Issue Date: May 2012
Tanween
PO Box 33175, Doha, Qatar.
Tel: +974 4499 0299
Fax: +974 4499 0297
www.tanween.com
Prepared By: David Duggan
Reviewed By:
Approved By:
Private and Confidential
Richard Larmer
Marlon Saab
QNMP and QNDF: Review and Recommendations – May 2012
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
3
1.1
PUBLIC POLICY AND REGULATORY CHALLENGES IN QNMP
3
1.2
QNMP TECHNICAL IMPLICATIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
4
1.3
QNMP DERIVED REAL ESTATE MARKET RECOMMENDATIONS AND OPPORTUNITIES 4
BACKGROUND AND OVERVIEW
6
2.1
BACKGROUND
6
2.2
THE VISION
7
2.3
EXISTING KEY URBAN DESIGN CHALLENGES IN DOHA
7
2.4
PRINCIPAL OBJECTIVES
7
2.5
PRINCIPAL ACTIONS TO BE UNDERTAKEN
8
2.6
PROJECTED POPULATION GROWTH AND DISTRIBUTION
8
2.7
PRIME AREAS FOR DEVELOPMENT IN QATAR
9
QNDF REVIEW AND RECOMMENDATIONS
10
3.1
REGULATORY FRAMEWORK
10
3.2
PUBLIC POLICY FRAMEWORK AS DEMAND DRIVER
11
3.3
MACROECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT
11
3.4
FIGURES
12
QNMP TECHNICAL REVIEW AND RECOMMENDATIONS
14
4.1
CONSTRUCTION PROGRAM
14
4.2
DEVELOPMENT OPPORTUNITIES
14
4.3
TECHNICAL REVIEW SUMMARY
15
4.4
TECHNICAL REVIEW IMPLICATIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
15
REAL ESTATE MARKET COMPONENT REVIEW AND RECOMMENDATIONS
16
5.1
RESIDENTIAL DEMAND AND SUPPLY ANALYSIS
16
5.2
STATUS OF EXISTING AND COMMITTED LARGE SCALE DEVELOPMENTS, DOHA
(2017)
17
5.3
BUILT ENVIRONMENT – INTEGRATION OF SINGLE USE ACTIVITIES
18
5.4
LOCATION/PROXIMITY MATRIX OF LARGE SINGLE USE ACTIVITIES
21
5.5
REVIEW SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS
22
ABBREVIATIONS AND REFERENCES
23
6.1
23
ABBREVIATIONS
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QNMP and QNDF: Review and Recommendations – May 2012
6.2
REFERENCES
23
1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The Executive Summary provides key recommendations with regards to the Qatar
National Master Plan.
1.1
PUBLIC POLICY AND REGULATORY CHALLENGES IN QNMP

Real-estate Regulatory Framework. QNDF recognizes that “the current system of
managing and assessing development is piecemeal wherein each Ministry and
Agency considers its own individual requirements in isolation of the broader
Government and development requirement.” (1:5.1.1) It addresses these
problems by “recommend[ing] a new, integrated planning and development
assessment process with improved compliance and enforcement.” These
recommendations focus on the efficient implementation of QNDF objectives but
do not take into account the current real-estate regulatory framework which
suffers from similar challenges. The establishment of a real-estate focal point or
special purpose vehicle (SPV) that allows for private sector involvement in
development activities in Qatar will facilitate private sector engagement by
streamlining real-estate related administrative procedures. The establishment of
this SPV will facilitate the achievement of various objectives embodied in the
QNDF vision statement.

Public Policy Framework as Demand Driver. Considerations in various Government
documents have led to the establishment of 6 Guiding Principles in QNMP 2032,
among them economic diversification and growth: “supporting economic growth
and diversification, fostering competitiveness, encouraging business investment
and stimulating innovation.” The QNDF establishes the spatial framework to
achieve these national human, social, economic and environmental goals.
Complementary measures should be undertaken to ensure that an appropriate
package of public policies is developed to ensure that investment by
government and government-related entities result in the creation of a
knowledge-based economy. A Public Policy Framework should be developed in
consultation with relevant stakeholders and result in policies that target particular
sectors and take into account the increasingly competitive nature of the regional
economic landscape. This Public Policy Framework will also address rules and
regulations that pertain to attracting and retaining foreign talent, including
property ownership rights for the expat population, labor market regulations,
greater access to credit for the private sector and the promotion of PPPs and JVs
between government entities and the private sector.

Macroeconomic Environment. Various economic forecasts have been used to
prepare QNDF and “form the foundation for the QNDF’s spatial development
strategy.” QNDF foresees “impressive GDP growth in trade, services and transport,
manufacturing with a move towards high-technology (ICT), media, education,
health and tourism.” (1:2.4.3) While total employment is predicted to be constant,
there will be “major upward shifts in demand for high skilled workers,
balanced by major reductions in the construction workforce around
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QNMP and QNDF: Review and Recommendations – May 2012
2017.” (1:2.4.4) Our analysis puts into question QNDF assumptions that imply an
upward shift in highly skilled workers that will balance major reductions in the
unskilled workforce following the completion of various public works milestones in
2017. We recommend the development of up-to-date and realistic economic
projections for non-hydrocarbon growth, growth decomposition by sector, and
growth in population by skill level. These economic projections should be based
on transparent assumptions and state-of-the-art modeling and implications
should be used for revising the integrated package of plans, policies and
regulations comprising QNMP.
1.2
QNMP TECHNICAL IMPLICATIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

QNDF has allocated land around Doha to contain urban sprawl. This land will act
as a Greenbelt and is currently located roughly in the areas of Umm Slal to the
north, Al Rayyan and al Wakra to the west and south of the city, respectively (see
Figure 4.2 in [1]). The introduction and enforcement of the Greenbelt will increase
demand and prices for potential development land in Greater Doha.

A key feature of QNDF is the creation of metropolitan and town centers
underpinned by Transited Oriented Development (TOD) (see Box 3 in [1]).
Metropolitan Doha Struture Plan (2032) envisages the following centers as
Metropolitan Centers: West Bay, Downtown Doha and Airport City and the
following centers as Town Centers: Umm Slal Mohammed, Al Gharrafa, Al Sadd,
Al Thumama, Doha, and Al Wakra (see Figure 4.2 in [1]). Large scale, high rise,
high density developments in the new metropolitan and town centers will create
a boom in land values in localized areas, as developers attempt to obtain
suitable sites for critical mass. This boom in land values is more likely to occur if the
planned transportation infrastructure is built.

Due to the bespoke nature of building design, traditional Qatari architecture and
urban form (Heart of Doha and Al Khor redevelopment) will be relatively
expensive compared to developments in the new centers. This puts pressure on
the financial viability of commercial development projects in these areas.

Industrial growth is focused in QP towns, the Doha Industrial Area and Qatar
Economic Zones (2.4.6 in [1]). Other large scale enterprise zones including the
airport, port, Qatar University and others will generate specialist development
opportunities in the same way that QP towns have done, to cater for mixed use
development for work and residential purposes.

We expect increasingly severe traffic congestion in Doha from 2013 to 2016.
1.3
QNMP DERIVED REAL ESTATE MARKET RECOMMENDATIONS AND OPPORTUNITIES

QNDF projected population figures do not currently factor in Qatar’s winning bid
to host the FIFA World Cup in 2022.

Most of the existing and committed projects outlined in QNMP are skewed
towards mid and high income categories. There is however sizeable demand for
affordable housing and labour accommodation.
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
Tanween research shows that 35% of the committed projects show no sign of
construction activity. No major announcement regarding these projects has been
made.

Based on integration requirements of Large Single Use Activities (policy BE 03
page 151 of [2]), Airport City, QEZ 1, QEZ 3, New Doha Port and Education City
are potential areas for real estate development (high street retail, affordable
residential development and community facilities).

Potential real estate development opportunities exist in municipalities such as Al
Khor adjacent to the projected development of Aerospace City (2:4.7.3), New Al
Wakra which will serve Mesaieed Industrial City and Umm Slal, adjacent to
Shamal Road and where a number of shopping venues are in the pipeline
(Festival City, Ezdan and Gulf Mall and Northgate.) QNMP 2030 has identified 25
District Centres within the Metropolitan Area and 18 District Centres outside the
Metropolitan Area for Mixed Use developments on a priority basis.

QNDF notes that high rates of population growth have strained government
resources in providing among other things recreational and leisure activities for its
citizen (2.2.3 in [1]). QNDF also notes that despite the promity of coastal zones
throughout Qatar, “there is a significant underprovision of recreational and leisure
facilities in coatal locations for the community to enjoy.” (2:8.1.5) Important
development opportunity for recreational and leisure facilities exist in coastal
locations. Looking at the current scenario Al Khor City, Ruwais and Al Shamal are
key potential areas.
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2. BACKGROUND AND OVERVIEW
2.1
BACKGROUND

Qatar National Master Plan (QNMP): “The government of the State of Qatar has
established a number of policy initiatives aimed at providing a long-term
development framework to guide and manage the future growth of Qatar.”
[1:1.2.1] “The QNV2030 prepared by GSDP, together with its National
Development Strategy, is the foundation for these initiatives. The QNMP is the
spatial representation of the QNV2030.” [1:1.2.2] QNMP is creating “an integrated
package of plans, policies and regulations applicable to national, municipality,
city and town jurisdictions. These plans and policies will guide the physical
development of Qatar over the next twenty years.” [1:1.1.4].
Qatar National Development Framework (QNDF): “The QNMP has two main parts:
the QNDF, and Municipal Spatial Development Plans comprising plans for cities,
town centers and action areas.” [1:1.2.4] “The principal strategic plan is the
QNDF. The QNDF is a plan, for the future, to manage growth and build stronger,
sustainable and livable communities. […] The QNDF establishes the spatial
framework to achieve national human, social, economic and environmental
goals.” [1:1.1.6] In addition, QNDF also “provides the framework for the
preparation of Municipal Spatial Development Plans” [2:1.2.2] “Any plans, policies
and regulations being prepared or amended by Ministries and Agencies that
relate to the physical development of Qatar must reflect and align with the
QNDF.” [1:1.4.2]. Figure 1.3 in [1] summarizes the preparation process for QNDF.
QNDF’s content rests on “17 strategic planning objectives together with a
national spatial strategy”. [1:1.5.1.B and C].

The QNDF comprises five sections. To each section is assigned a number of
policies. The sections are (see 2:1.5.1)
A) Urban Living in the 21st Century
B) The Spatial Strategy
C) Drivers of Change
D) Delivering the Strategy
E) Managing the Strategy

The policies are listed under each section in [2].
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2.2
THE VISION
The Master Plan (MP) is all-encompassing and covers all aspects of Qatar’s
development up to 2032. The main components of the QNMP are as follows (see
Foreword in [2]):




2.3
Human Development
Social Development
Economic Development
Environmental Development. (Food, sustainable water supply, environmental
protection)
EXISTING KEY URBAN DESIGN CHALLENGES IN DOHA
The QNMP points out key weaknesses in Qatar’s past development guidelines and built
environment (see Box 1 in [2]) such as:





2.4
Zoning regulations produce single use developments
Lack of vibrant mixed use areas
Existing radial and ring roads create a patchwork urban sprawl zoned areas
Absence of distinctive centers and gateways contribute to nondescript urban form
Doha is a car dominated society as a consequence of isolated suburbs along highways
PRINCIPAL OBJECTIVES
QNDF identifies strategic planning objectives that provide the spatial and physical
development focus for achieving QNDF’s vision (2:3.2.1) and summarized below:

















Quality environment and design at Doha principal centers (West Bay to Airport)
Develop a number of high quality mixed use projects
Retain cultural integrity
Integrated transport system (Road, Rail, Metro, Airport, Seaport- Passenger and
freight)
Radial transport routes from Doha Centre, reducing private car use
Mega projects integrated into wider community
Community and social facilities and activities
Quality public realm (Parks, squares, cornice, museums, and mosques)
Variety of urban block sizes
Variety of density and building types for a range of mixed accommodation units
High quality residential neighborhoods
Doha Culture with distinctive character (Heart of Doha)
Protect and enhance environment
Consider climate change risks in the design (Green areas, shading, QSAS)
Infrastructure services – forward planning
Urban grown boundaries
Develop policy structure to accommodate change
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2.5
PRINCIPAL ACTIONS TO BE UNDERTAKEN
As per QNMP, it is imperative that the recommendations of the 2032 Master Plan are to
be actioned, monitored and enforced. Key recommendations to help implement the
National Spatial Strategy (2:3.3.8) are summarized below:





2.6
Enforce Greenbelt policies to avoid Urban Sprawl
Revise existing zoning regulations to encourage mixed use
Develop transport orientated mixed use centers
Approval procedure to be improved from regulatory authorities
Establish a hierarchy and network of urban centers for growth
PROJECTED POPULATION GROWTH AND DISTRIBUTION

Qatar’s population growth has been downgraded from the earlier projections pre
2008 when it was anticipated to be more than 3 million by 2032 (Figure 1). Growth
in population is dominated by expatriate workers with an emphasis on higher
social and economic groups and a reduction in the number of unskilled labor.
Figure 1
Qatar: Projected Population (Millions)
2,5
2
1,5
1
1,91
2,29
1,45
0,5
0
2008
2017
2032
Source: QNDF

The 2032 medium term distribution of the population will remain concentrated
on Greater Doha area. The remaining 400,000 residents will be located in the
Qatar Petroleum towns/ camps and a further 5 regional towns.
 Greater Doha - 80% to 85% of the population (1.9 million people)
 80% of the population of Doha will be Expats
 Remaining 380,000 will be concentrated on main towns including Al
Khor, Al Wukair, Al Thakira and QP Towns
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2.7
PRIME AREAS FOR DEVELOPMENT IN QATAR
Figure 2
Source: Tanween research and Google Maps
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QNMP and QNDF: Review and Recommendations – May 2012
3. QNDF REVIEW AND RECOMMENDATIONS
3.1
REGULATORY FRAMEWORK

Background: QNDF establishes the spatial framework to achieve government objectives
as embodied in various government documents. Key Planning Challenges were identified
(Box 1 in [1]) and addressed by Sustainable Guiding Principles that “provide the
foundations for the strategic planning objectives […] that make up the QNDF.” (1:2.3.1)
For example, Key Planning Challenges include items such as rapid urban development,
the lack of quality public transport and the lack of affordable housing options for nonQataris, among others (see box 1 in [1]). These Key Planning Challenges do not take into
account important challenges faced by private sector developers looking to invest in
real-estate in Qatar: in particular, a fragmented and complex real-estate regulatory
framework that hinders private sector investment. The QNDF report recognizes related
problems: “The current system of managing and assessing development is piecemeal
wherein each Ministry and Agency considers its own individual requirements in isolation of
the broader Government and development requirement.” (1:5.1.1) Also “[t]here are a
number of different zoning controls and development regulations applying separately to
the cities and towns of Qatar.” (1:5.1.2) The QNDF has addressed these problems by
“recommend[ing] a new, integrated planning and development assessment process with
improved compliance and enforcement.” These recommendations focus on the efficient
implementation of QNDF objectives but do not take into account the current real-estate
regulatory framework.

Recommendations: The core challenge facing the Government vis-à-vis the existing realestate regulatory framework is two-fold: first, to ensure that government investment,
including investment in World Cup venues, lays the groundwork for private sector
involvement, and second to facilitate private sector engagement by streamlining realestate related administrative procedures. The establishment of a real-estate focal point or
special purpose vehicle (SPV) that allows for private sector involvement in development
activities in Qatar will overcome these core challenges. In addition, the establishment of
this SPV will facilitate the achievement of various objectives embodied in the QNDF vision
statement, in particular “producing an attractive and livable urban environment” (Figure
3.1 in [1]) by allowing organic private-sector driven growth in the urban landscape that
responds to consumer demand, also “promoting economic and environmental
sustainability” by ensuring that costs related to urban development are shouldered by
both public and private sector entities. This recommendation is also a complementary
measure to “providing a robust and innovative spatial legislative planning framework”
(Figure 3.1 in [1]) by ensuring greater private sector involvement in achieving Qatar’s
National Development Framework.
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3.2
PUBLIC POLICY FRAMEWORK AS DEMAND DRIVER

Background: In its vision statement, the QNDF stresses the importance of creating “a
distinctive identity for Doha as an international cultural center and dynamic knowledge
hub” (Figure 3.1 in [1]). This vision is based on the identification of 5 Key Challenges
including “balancing economic growth, social development and environmental
management” (Figure 2.1 in [1]) from the QNV2030. These Key Challenges have in turn led
to the formulation of 4 Pillars of Sustainable Development in the QNV2030 which include
the “development of a competitive and diversified economy capable of meeting the
needs of and securing a high standard of living” for its people (Figure 2.1 in [1]). These
considerations have led to the establishment of 6 Guiding Principles in QNMP 2032,
among them economic diversification and growth: “supporting economic growth and
diversification, fostering competitiveness, encouraging business investment and
stimulating innovation.” The QNDF establishes the spatial framework to achieve these
national human, social, economic and environmental goals.

Recommendations: In addition to a spatial framework to manage growth,
complementary measures should be undertaken to ensure that an appropriate package
of public policies is developed to ensure that investment by government and
government-related entities result in the creation of a knowledge-based economy. We
recommend the development and establishment of a Public Policy Framework that
promotes the creation of a knowledge-based economy by defining a unique value
proposition for doing business in Qatar. This Public Policy Framework will result in genuine
economic diversification, attract wealth-creating businesses and high-skill workers, ensure
profitable and financially viable government investment in the coming decades and
facilitate the creation of a knowledge-based economy through knowledge-transfer to
Qataris and Qatari-owned businesses. This Public Policy Framework should be developed
in consultation with relevant stakeholders and result in policies that target particular
sectors and take into account the increasingly competitive nature of the regional
economic landscape. This Public Policy Framework will also address rules and regulations
that pertain to attracting and retaining foreign talent. The development of this Public
Policy Framework is in line with QNDF and will contribute to attracting the high-skill
workforce that will transform Qatar into a knowledge-based economy.
3.3
MACROECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT

Background: The document recognizes Key Planning Challenges for Qatar (Box 1 in [1])
and provides 6 Sustainable Guiding Principles to “provide the foundations for strategic
planning objectives, plans, policies and policy actions that make up the QNDF.” [1:2.3.1].
Among them is economic growth and diversification: “Supporting economic growth and
diversification, fostering competitiveness, encouraging business investment and
stimulating innovation.” (Figure 2.1 in [1]).The QNDF vision, among other things, is to
“promote economic and environmental sustainability by guiding and focusing future
major public and private sector investments [development]” (Figure 3.1 in [1]) Various
economic forecasts have been used to prepare QNDF and “form the foundation for the
QNDF’s spatial development strategy.” In particular growth assumptions based on GSDP
forecasts put growth at around 10% per annum to 2015, then stabilizing at 7% per annum
between 2016 to 2030 (1:2.4.2). QNDF foresees “impressive GDP growth in trade, services
and transport, manufacturing with a move towards high-technology (ICT), media,
education, health and tourism.” (1:2.4.3) While total employment is predicted to be
constant, there will be “major upward shifts in demand for high skilled workers, balanced
by major reductions in the construction workforce around 2017.” (1:2.4.4).
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QNMP and QNDF: Review and Recommendations – May 2012

3.4
Recommendations: GDP growth forecasts by the IMF World Economic Outlook put growth
at between 4% to 6% for the period 2012-2016. Refer to Figure 1 below for a breakdown
between hydrocarbon and non-hydrocarbon growth. Non-hydrocarbon growth is
expected at slightly below 9% for the coming year. Movements in population growth
mirror those of non-hydrocarbon economic growth rather than overall economic growth
(see Figure 2). This in turn highlights the importance of economic diversification as a driver
of growth in the country’s skilled labor force. Figure 3 shows that about 2/3 of the
population in Qatar and a sample comparable (Saudi Arabia) are unskilled or semi-skilled
workers. The population mix in Dubai is 41% of skilled workers, only slightly above Qatar
and Saudi Arabia, despite the UAE being at a much later stage of economic
diversification than neighboring Gulf States (see Figure 3). This puts into question QNDF
assumptions that imply an upward shift in highly skilled workers that will balance major
reductions in the unskilled workforce following the completion of various public works
milestones in 2017. We recommend the development of up-to-date and realistic
economic projections for non-hydrocarbon growth, growth decomposition by sector, and
growth in population by skill level. These economic projections should be based on
transparent assumptions and state-of-the-art modeling and implications should be used
for revising the integrated package of plans, policies and regulations comprising QNMP.
FIGURES
Figure 3
Qatar: Real GDP (Hydrocarbon and Non-Hydrocarbon) and Population Growth Rates, 2000-2013P
35,0%
30,0%
25,0%
20,0%
15,0%
10,0%
5,0%
0,0%
-5,0%
2000-06
Real GDP
2007
2008
Hydrocarbon GDP
2009
2010
2011
Non-Hydrocarbon GDP
2012P
2013P
Population Growth
Source: Tanween research based on IMF, Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia, April
2012
Figure 4
Qatar: Share of Expatriates in Labour Force by Skill Level, 2010
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QNMP and QNDF: Review and Recommendations – May 2012
32%
36%
34%
41%
Skilled and HighSkilled
Semi-skilled
42%
43%
Unskilled
31%
26%
Qatar
16%
Saudi Arabia
Dubai
Note: Dubai data is for year 2009. Source: Tanween research based on National Authorities, April 2012
Figure 5
GCC: Oil Exports/GDP Ratio, 2006-2012P
52%
48%
44%
54%
48%
28%
2012
55%
50%
47%
56%
52%
29%
2011
49%
46%
47%
43%
44%
39%
57%
26%
25%
2010
43%
48%
43%
62%
56%
47%
54%
59%
33%
58%
52%
45%
50%
53%
29%
58%
52%
47%
51%
53%
32%
Bahrain
Kuwait
Oman
Qatar
Saudi Arabia
UAE
2009
2008
2007
2006
Source: Tanween research based on IMF, Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia,
October 2011
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4. QNMP TECHNICAL REVIEW AND RECOMMENDATIONS
4.1
CONSTRUCTION PROGRAM

The overall development plans and procurement of sites can be expected to be
completed by the end of 2017. We assume that the 2032 master plan will be
frozen by 2015, with few opportunities for change. The Master Plan report for each
policy time frames as follows: Immediate - December 2012, Short term December 2017, and Medium Term – December 2032 (see 1:1.5.3.)

The infrastructure and development program identifies that most of the major
works will be carried out in the next five years leading up to end-2017. The most
active period coincides with Qatar’s maximum projected GDP and oil and gas
revenues: 2017 corresponds to peak oil output and revenue return, peak
construction activity followed by major reduction and when major projects and
developments are expected to be completed.
4.2
DEVELOPMENT OPPORTUNITIES

Policy BE1 of QNDF (pp. 161 in [2]) establishes a Hierarchy of Centers with the
purpose of managing urban growth. The purpose of this Hierarchy is to
“provide a focus for mixed-use, mixed density developments” that
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QNMP and QNDF: Review and Recommendations – May 2012
“will give clarity, direction and confidence for the private sector” (2:11.5.1).
Opportunities for development in relation to services that would be provided for
specific areas are as follows:





4.3
Airport City (Airport related businesses, hotels, residential, offices, F+B)
Port (Warehouse, open air storage, truck parks, offices, residential)
Education City (offices, R+D, accommodation, F+B)
Downtown Doha (Fully mixed use high density developments)
West Bay (Fully mixed used high density development)
TECHNICAL REVIEW SUMMARY

The majority of development plans and opportunities will be realized by
December 2017 (1:2.5.13). Completion of this projects is recognized as a short
term objective.
Transport hubs including metro and rail stations will be prime development sites in
Doha.

There is a recognition that Qatari Nationals will wish to live in neighborhoods
separate from the expat community.

There is major concern that the existing planning and regulatory approval system
will be unable to cope with the high level of development forecast, particularly
with respect to generating approvals. This may result in the Regulatory Services
sub-contracting the approval process to engineering consultants.
4.4
TECHNICAL REVIEW IMPLICATIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

QNDF has allocated land around Doha to contain urban sprawl. This land will act
as a Greenbelt and is currently located roughly in the areas of Umm Slal to the
north, Al Rayyan and al Wakra to the west and south of the city, respectively (see
Figure 4.2 in [1]). The introduction and enforcement of the Greenbelt will increase
demand and prices for potential development land in Greater Doha.

A key feature of QNDF is the creation of metropolitan and town centers
underpinned by Transited Oriented Development (TOD) (see Box 3 in [1]).
Metropolitan Doha Struture Plan (2032) envisages the following centers as
Metropolitan Centers: West Bay, Downtown Doha and Airport City and the
following centers as Town Centers: Umm Slal Mohammed, Al Gharrafa, Al Sadd,
Al Thumama, Doha, and Al Wakra (see Figure 4.2 in [1]). Large scale, high rise,
high density developments in the new metropolitan and town centers will create
a boom in land values in localized areas, as developers attempt to obtain
suitable sites for critical mass. This boom in land values is more likely to occur if the
planned transportation infrastructure is built.

Metropolitan areas and particularly new residential developments will cater for
western lifestyles with open plan housing and communal facilities including
shared gardens and pool areas.
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QNMP and QNDF: Review and Recommendations – May 2012

Due to the bespoke nature of building design, traditional Qatari architecture and
urban form (Heart of Doha and Al Khor redevelopment) will be relatively
expensive compared to developments in the new centers. This puts pressure on
the financial viability of commercial development projects in these areas.

Industrial growth is focused in QP towns, the Doha Industrial Area and Qatar
Economic Zones (2.4.6 in [1]). Other large scale enterprise zones including the
airport, port, Qatar University and others will generate specialist development
opportunities in the same way that QP towns have done, to cater for mixed use
development for work and residential purposes.

We expect increasingly severe traffic congestion in Doha from 2013 to 2016.
5. REAL ESTATE MARKET COMPONENT REVIEW AND RECOMMENDATIONS
5.1
RESIDENTIAL DEMAND AND SUPPLY ANALYSIS

QNMP estimates the population for 2017, 2030 and 2032 to be 1.9million (mn),
2.2mn and 2.3mn, respectively. Tanween however estimates that population in
2017 will be 2.2mn comprising 75% skilled, semi-skilled and elementary workers.
These population estimates are based on Qatar winning the Bid to host the 2022
FIFA World Cup.

Similarly Tanween projects about 4% population growth for the period 2012-2030
with an average annual employment of about 1.9mn over this period. This is in
contrast to the more conservative estimate of 1.2mn over the period 2008 – 2032.

Total committed large scale developments in Metropolitan Doha will increase
residential units by approximately 120,000 by 2017. These are likely to cater to mid
to high income households (above QAR20,000 monthly income). Tanween
however estimates demand for only 65,000 units from MPTAP, Clerks and Service
Workers over the same period indicating an oversupply. A majority of this
demand will however come from household/individuals with a monthly income
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between QAR5,000–QR20,000. This implies that committed large scale
developments should be re-oriented to absorb demand from low to mid income
groups.

5.2
Additional demand for labour accommodation by 2017 will be approximately
40,000 units corresponding to demand for 240,000 workers. While QNMP has
identified the need for this type of accommodation, there is no clear
demarcation on location.
STATUS OF EXISTING AND COMMITTED LARGE SCALE DEVELOPMENTS, DOHA (2017)
The table below shows existing and committed projects by 2017 and their actual current
status.
Table 1
Actual Status
Projects planned until 2017
Under construction
Completed
Unknown*
Airport City

Al Wakra City

Al Wukair City

 (Phase 1)
Barwa Al Baraha Truck City
Barwa City

Doha Industrail Area
Lusail


Karwa City

QEZ 3

The Pearl


West Bay Lagoon & Lagoona

West Bay Towers

Al Waab City
 (On Hold Currently)
Barwa Al Saad
Bawra Commercial Avenue


Barwa Housing (Mesaimeer)

Barwa Housing (Sailiyah)

Barwa Village

Education City

Hamad Medical Facility

Heart of Doha

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Actual Status
Projects planned until 2017
Under construction
Completed
Qatar University Expansion

Industrail Area (SMSIA)

Al Shafallar Center

Aspire Zone

Barwa Al Doha
Barwa Financial District
Unknown*


Central Market

Corniche

Cultural Village

Doha Grand Park
Fishing Port Redevelopment


Islamic Art Museum Park

Lusail Heritage Project

Muntazah Park Re -development

North Gate Project

QEZ 1

QEZ 2

Qatar National Museum

Souq Waqif

St. Regis Hotel

State Mosque

Wakra Waterfront development

Zone 6

Zone 7

* Project Unknown / currently no construction activity on the development / no development
announcement have been made
Source: QNMP, Tanween Market Research
Only 64% of committed projects have been completed to date. Those under
construction are likely to be completed by 2015 - 2016. Tanween field research and
market monitoring suggests however no sign of construction activity nor has any major
announcement been made for the remainder of the planned projects.
5.3
BUILT ENVIRONMENT – INTEGRATION OF SINGLE USE ACTIVITIES
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The map below illustrates the known location of Large Single Use Activities and current
Barwa projects:
Figure 6
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Source: Tanween Research and Google Maps
Large Single Use Activity
1. Qatar University
2. Education City
3. Corniche Redevelopment
Area/ Grand Park
4. Doha Port
5. Airport City
6. QEZ 1
7. QEZ 3
8. New Doha Port
9. Doha Industrial Area
10. QEZ 2
Barwa Developments
Competitor Developments
1. Barwa Masaken (Sailiyah)
2. Barwa Commercial
Avenue
1. Lusail City
3. Barwa City
3. The Pearl Qatar
4. Barwa Masaken
(Meiseimeer)
5. Barwa Village
6. Barwa Al Sadd
2. West Bay Lagoon
4. Musheireb Properties
5. Al Waab City
6. Ezdan Residential Developments
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QNMP and QNDF: Review and Recommendations – May 2012
5.4
LOCATION/PROXIMITY MATRIX OF LARGE SINGLE USE ACTIVITIES
The matrix below identifies real estate opportunities for Barwa as a Key Stakeholder to
support the integration of existing and proposed Large Single Use Activities areas, in line
with QNDF objectives.
Table 2
S
No.
Large Single
Use Activity
Barwa
Developments
(2 kms radius)
Major
Developments
1.
Qatar University
None
West Bay Lagoon
Retail, community facilities
2.
Education City
None
None
Retail, affordable residential
housing, community facilities
3.
Corniche
Redevelopment
Area/ Grand
Park
None
Musheireb
Properties
None
4.
Doha Port
None
Independent
developments
None
5.
Airport City
None
None
Retail, affordable residential
housing, community facilities
6.
QEZ 1
Barwa Village
Independent
developments
Retail, affordable residential
housing, community facilities
7.
QEZ 3
None
Ezdan Residential
Developments
Retail, affordable residential
housing, community facilities
8.
New Doha Port
None
Ezdan Residential
Developments
Retail, affordable residential
housing, community facilities
9.
Doha Industrial
Area
Barwa
Commercial
Avenue
None
Community facilities
10.
QEZ 2
None
Qatar Logistic
Villlage
None
(2 kms radius)
Real Estate Development
Opportunities for Barwa
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5.5
REVIEW SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS

QNDF projected population figures do not currently factor in Qatar’s winning bid
to host the FIFA World Cup in 2022.

Most of the existing and committed projects outlined in QNMP are skewed
towards mid and high income categories. There is however sizeable demand for
affordable housing and labour accommodation.

Tanween research shows that 35% of the committed projects show no sign of
construction activity. No major announcement regarding these projects has been
made.

Based on integration requirements of Large Single Use Activities (policy BE 03
page 151 of [2]), Airport City, QEZ 1, QEZ 3, New Doha Port and Education City
are potential opportunity areas for real estate development (high street retail,
affordable residential development and community facilities).

Potential real estate development opportunities exist in municipalities such as Al
Khor adjacent to the projected development of Aerospace City (2:4.7.3), New Al
Wakra which will serve Mesaieed Industrial City and Umm Slal, adjacent to
Shamal Road and where a number of shopping venues are in the pipeline
(Festival City, Ezdan and Gulf Mall and Northgate.) QNMP 2030 has identified 25
District Centres within the Metropolitan Area and 18 District Centres outside the
Metropolitan Area for Mixed Use developments on a priority basis.

QNDF notes that high rates of population growth have strained government
resources in providing among other things recreational and leisure activities for its
citizen (2.2.3 in [1]). QNDF also notes that despite the promity of coastal zones
throughout Qatar, “there is a significant underprovision of recreational and leisure
facilities in coatal locations for the community to enjoy.” (2:8.1.5) Important
development opportunity for recreational and leisure facilities exist in coastal
locations. Looking at the current scenario Al Khor City, Ruwais and Al Shamal are
key potential areas.
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6. ABBREVIATIONS AND REFERENCES
6.1
ABBREVIATIONS




6.2
GSDP: General Secretariat for Development Planning.
QNDF: Qatar National Development Framework.
QNMP: Qatar National Master Plan.
QNV2030: Qatar National Vision 2030.
REFERENCES
[1] Qatar National Development Framework 2010-2032, Executive Summary. November 2010.
[2] Qatar National Development Framework 2010-2032, Final Draft. November 2010.
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