QNMP and QNDF: Review and Recommendations – May 2012 MASTER PLAN 2010-2032 AND QATAR NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT FRAMEWORK: PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL REVIEW AND RECOMMENDATIONS DRAFT REPORT Revision: No. 001 Issue Date: May 2012 Tanween PO Box 33175, Doha, Qatar. Tel: +974 4499 0299 Fax: +974 4499 0297 www.tanween.com Prepared By: David Duggan Reviewed By: Approved By: Private and Confidential Richard Larmer Marlon Saab QNMP and QNDF: Review and Recommendations – May 2012 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3 1.1 PUBLIC POLICY AND REGULATORY CHALLENGES IN QNMP 3 1.2 QNMP TECHNICAL IMPLICATIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 4 1.3 QNMP DERIVED REAL ESTATE MARKET RECOMMENDATIONS AND OPPORTUNITIES 4 BACKGROUND AND OVERVIEW 6 2.1 BACKGROUND 6 2.2 THE VISION 7 2.3 EXISTING KEY URBAN DESIGN CHALLENGES IN DOHA 7 2.4 PRINCIPAL OBJECTIVES 7 2.5 PRINCIPAL ACTIONS TO BE UNDERTAKEN 8 2.6 PROJECTED POPULATION GROWTH AND DISTRIBUTION 8 2.7 PRIME AREAS FOR DEVELOPMENT IN QATAR 9 QNDF REVIEW AND RECOMMENDATIONS 10 3.1 REGULATORY FRAMEWORK 10 3.2 PUBLIC POLICY FRAMEWORK AS DEMAND DRIVER 11 3.3 MACROECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT 11 3.4 FIGURES 12 QNMP TECHNICAL REVIEW AND RECOMMENDATIONS 14 4.1 CONSTRUCTION PROGRAM 14 4.2 DEVELOPMENT OPPORTUNITIES 14 4.3 TECHNICAL REVIEW SUMMARY 15 4.4 TECHNICAL REVIEW IMPLICATIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 15 REAL ESTATE MARKET COMPONENT REVIEW AND RECOMMENDATIONS 16 5.1 RESIDENTIAL DEMAND AND SUPPLY ANALYSIS 16 5.2 STATUS OF EXISTING AND COMMITTED LARGE SCALE DEVELOPMENTS, DOHA (2017) 17 5.3 BUILT ENVIRONMENT – INTEGRATION OF SINGLE USE ACTIVITIES 18 5.4 LOCATION/PROXIMITY MATRIX OF LARGE SINGLE USE ACTIVITIES 21 5.5 REVIEW SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS 22 ABBREVIATIONS AND REFERENCES 23 6.1 23 ABBREVIATIONS Private and Confidential Page 2 QNMP and QNDF: Review and Recommendations – May 2012 6.2 REFERENCES 23 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Executive Summary provides key recommendations with regards to the Qatar National Master Plan. 1.1 PUBLIC POLICY AND REGULATORY CHALLENGES IN QNMP Real-estate Regulatory Framework. QNDF recognizes that “the current system of managing and assessing development is piecemeal wherein each Ministry and Agency considers its own individual requirements in isolation of the broader Government and development requirement.” (1:5.1.1) It addresses these problems by “recommend[ing] a new, integrated planning and development assessment process with improved compliance and enforcement.” These recommendations focus on the efficient implementation of QNDF objectives but do not take into account the current real-estate regulatory framework which suffers from similar challenges. The establishment of a real-estate focal point or special purpose vehicle (SPV) that allows for private sector involvement in development activities in Qatar will facilitate private sector engagement by streamlining real-estate related administrative procedures. The establishment of this SPV will facilitate the achievement of various objectives embodied in the QNDF vision statement. Public Policy Framework as Demand Driver. Considerations in various Government documents have led to the establishment of 6 Guiding Principles in QNMP 2032, among them economic diversification and growth: “supporting economic growth and diversification, fostering competitiveness, encouraging business investment and stimulating innovation.” The QNDF establishes the spatial framework to achieve these national human, social, economic and environmental goals. Complementary measures should be undertaken to ensure that an appropriate package of public policies is developed to ensure that investment by government and government-related entities result in the creation of a knowledge-based economy. A Public Policy Framework should be developed in consultation with relevant stakeholders and result in policies that target particular sectors and take into account the increasingly competitive nature of the regional economic landscape. This Public Policy Framework will also address rules and regulations that pertain to attracting and retaining foreign talent, including property ownership rights for the expat population, labor market regulations, greater access to credit for the private sector and the promotion of PPPs and JVs between government entities and the private sector. Macroeconomic Environment. Various economic forecasts have been used to prepare QNDF and “form the foundation for the QNDF’s spatial development strategy.” QNDF foresees “impressive GDP growth in trade, services and transport, manufacturing with a move towards high-technology (ICT), media, education, health and tourism.” (1:2.4.3) While total employment is predicted to be constant, there will be “major upward shifts in demand for high skilled workers, balanced by major reductions in the construction workforce around Private and Confidential Page 3 QNMP and QNDF: Review and Recommendations – May 2012 2017.” (1:2.4.4) Our analysis puts into question QNDF assumptions that imply an upward shift in highly skilled workers that will balance major reductions in the unskilled workforce following the completion of various public works milestones in 2017. We recommend the development of up-to-date and realistic economic projections for non-hydrocarbon growth, growth decomposition by sector, and growth in population by skill level. These economic projections should be based on transparent assumptions and state-of-the-art modeling and implications should be used for revising the integrated package of plans, policies and regulations comprising QNMP. 1.2 QNMP TECHNICAL IMPLICATIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS QNDF has allocated land around Doha to contain urban sprawl. This land will act as a Greenbelt and is currently located roughly in the areas of Umm Slal to the north, Al Rayyan and al Wakra to the west and south of the city, respectively (see Figure 4.2 in [1]). The introduction and enforcement of the Greenbelt will increase demand and prices for potential development land in Greater Doha. A key feature of QNDF is the creation of metropolitan and town centers underpinned by Transited Oriented Development (TOD) (see Box 3 in [1]). Metropolitan Doha Struture Plan (2032) envisages the following centers as Metropolitan Centers: West Bay, Downtown Doha and Airport City and the following centers as Town Centers: Umm Slal Mohammed, Al Gharrafa, Al Sadd, Al Thumama, Doha, and Al Wakra (see Figure 4.2 in [1]). Large scale, high rise, high density developments in the new metropolitan and town centers will create a boom in land values in localized areas, as developers attempt to obtain suitable sites for critical mass. This boom in land values is more likely to occur if the planned transportation infrastructure is built. Due to the bespoke nature of building design, traditional Qatari architecture and urban form (Heart of Doha and Al Khor redevelopment) will be relatively expensive compared to developments in the new centers. This puts pressure on the financial viability of commercial development projects in these areas. Industrial growth is focused in QP towns, the Doha Industrial Area and Qatar Economic Zones (2.4.6 in [1]). Other large scale enterprise zones including the airport, port, Qatar University and others will generate specialist development opportunities in the same way that QP towns have done, to cater for mixed use development for work and residential purposes. We expect increasingly severe traffic congestion in Doha from 2013 to 2016. 1.3 QNMP DERIVED REAL ESTATE MARKET RECOMMENDATIONS AND OPPORTUNITIES QNDF projected population figures do not currently factor in Qatar’s winning bid to host the FIFA World Cup in 2022. Most of the existing and committed projects outlined in QNMP are skewed towards mid and high income categories. There is however sizeable demand for affordable housing and labour accommodation. Private and Confidential Page 4 QNMP and QNDF: Review and Recommendations – May 2012 Tanween research shows that 35% of the committed projects show no sign of construction activity. No major announcement regarding these projects has been made. Based on integration requirements of Large Single Use Activities (policy BE 03 page 151 of [2]), Airport City, QEZ 1, QEZ 3, New Doha Port and Education City are potential areas for real estate development (high street retail, affordable residential development and community facilities). Potential real estate development opportunities exist in municipalities such as Al Khor adjacent to the projected development of Aerospace City (2:4.7.3), New Al Wakra which will serve Mesaieed Industrial City and Umm Slal, adjacent to Shamal Road and where a number of shopping venues are in the pipeline (Festival City, Ezdan and Gulf Mall and Northgate.) QNMP 2030 has identified 25 District Centres within the Metropolitan Area and 18 District Centres outside the Metropolitan Area for Mixed Use developments on a priority basis. QNDF notes that high rates of population growth have strained government resources in providing among other things recreational and leisure activities for its citizen (2.2.3 in [1]). QNDF also notes that despite the promity of coastal zones throughout Qatar, “there is a significant underprovision of recreational and leisure facilities in coatal locations for the community to enjoy.” (2:8.1.5) Important development opportunity for recreational and leisure facilities exist in coastal locations. Looking at the current scenario Al Khor City, Ruwais and Al Shamal are key potential areas. Private and Confidential Page 5 QNMP and QNDF: Review and Recommendations – May 2012 2. BACKGROUND AND OVERVIEW 2.1 BACKGROUND Qatar National Master Plan (QNMP): “The government of the State of Qatar has established a number of policy initiatives aimed at providing a long-term development framework to guide and manage the future growth of Qatar.” [1:1.2.1] “The QNV2030 prepared by GSDP, together with its National Development Strategy, is the foundation for these initiatives. The QNMP is the spatial representation of the QNV2030.” [1:1.2.2] QNMP is creating “an integrated package of plans, policies and regulations applicable to national, municipality, city and town jurisdictions. These plans and policies will guide the physical development of Qatar over the next twenty years.” [1:1.1.4]. Qatar National Development Framework (QNDF): “The QNMP has two main parts: the QNDF, and Municipal Spatial Development Plans comprising plans for cities, town centers and action areas.” [1:1.2.4] “The principal strategic plan is the QNDF. The QNDF is a plan, for the future, to manage growth and build stronger, sustainable and livable communities. […] The QNDF establishes the spatial framework to achieve national human, social, economic and environmental goals.” [1:1.1.6] In addition, QNDF also “provides the framework for the preparation of Municipal Spatial Development Plans” [2:1.2.2] “Any plans, policies and regulations being prepared or amended by Ministries and Agencies that relate to the physical development of Qatar must reflect and align with the QNDF.” [1:1.4.2]. Figure 1.3 in [1] summarizes the preparation process for QNDF. QNDF’s content rests on “17 strategic planning objectives together with a national spatial strategy”. [1:1.5.1.B and C]. The QNDF comprises five sections. To each section is assigned a number of policies. The sections are (see 2:1.5.1) A) Urban Living in the 21st Century B) The Spatial Strategy C) Drivers of Change D) Delivering the Strategy E) Managing the Strategy The policies are listed under each section in [2]. Private and Confidential Page 6 QNMP and QNDF: Review and Recommendations – May 2012 2.2 THE VISION The Master Plan (MP) is all-encompassing and covers all aspects of Qatar’s development up to 2032. The main components of the QNMP are as follows (see Foreword in [2]): 2.3 Human Development Social Development Economic Development Environmental Development. (Food, sustainable water supply, environmental protection) EXISTING KEY URBAN DESIGN CHALLENGES IN DOHA The QNMP points out key weaknesses in Qatar’s past development guidelines and built environment (see Box 1 in [2]) such as: 2.4 Zoning regulations produce single use developments Lack of vibrant mixed use areas Existing radial and ring roads create a patchwork urban sprawl zoned areas Absence of distinctive centers and gateways contribute to nondescript urban form Doha is a car dominated society as a consequence of isolated suburbs along highways PRINCIPAL OBJECTIVES QNDF identifies strategic planning objectives that provide the spatial and physical development focus for achieving QNDF’s vision (2:3.2.1) and summarized below: Quality environment and design at Doha principal centers (West Bay to Airport) Develop a number of high quality mixed use projects Retain cultural integrity Integrated transport system (Road, Rail, Metro, Airport, Seaport- Passenger and freight) Radial transport routes from Doha Centre, reducing private car use Mega projects integrated into wider community Community and social facilities and activities Quality public realm (Parks, squares, cornice, museums, and mosques) Variety of urban block sizes Variety of density and building types for a range of mixed accommodation units High quality residential neighborhoods Doha Culture with distinctive character (Heart of Doha) Protect and enhance environment Consider climate change risks in the design (Green areas, shading, QSAS) Infrastructure services – forward planning Urban grown boundaries Develop policy structure to accommodate change Private and Confidential Page 7 QNMP and QNDF: Review and Recommendations – May 2012 2.5 PRINCIPAL ACTIONS TO BE UNDERTAKEN As per QNMP, it is imperative that the recommendations of the 2032 Master Plan are to be actioned, monitored and enforced. Key recommendations to help implement the National Spatial Strategy (2:3.3.8) are summarized below: 2.6 Enforce Greenbelt policies to avoid Urban Sprawl Revise existing zoning regulations to encourage mixed use Develop transport orientated mixed use centers Approval procedure to be improved from regulatory authorities Establish a hierarchy and network of urban centers for growth PROJECTED POPULATION GROWTH AND DISTRIBUTION Qatar’s population growth has been downgraded from the earlier projections pre 2008 when it was anticipated to be more than 3 million by 2032 (Figure 1). Growth in population is dominated by expatriate workers with an emphasis on higher social and economic groups and a reduction in the number of unskilled labor. Figure 1 Qatar: Projected Population (Millions) 2,5 2 1,5 1 1,91 2,29 1,45 0,5 0 2008 2017 2032 Source: QNDF The 2032 medium term distribution of the population will remain concentrated on Greater Doha area. The remaining 400,000 residents will be located in the Qatar Petroleum towns/ camps and a further 5 regional towns. Greater Doha - 80% to 85% of the population (1.9 million people) 80% of the population of Doha will be Expats Remaining 380,000 will be concentrated on main towns including Al Khor, Al Wukair, Al Thakira and QP Towns Private and Confidential Page 8 QNMP and QNDF: Review and Recommendations – May 2012 2.7 PRIME AREAS FOR DEVELOPMENT IN QATAR Figure 2 Source: Tanween research and Google Maps Private and Confidential Page 9 QNMP and QNDF: Review and Recommendations – May 2012 3. QNDF REVIEW AND RECOMMENDATIONS 3.1 REGULATORY FRAMEWORK Background: QNDF establishes the spatial framework to achieve government objectives as embodied in various government documents. Key Planning Challenges were identified (Box 1 in [1]) and addressed by Sustainable Guiding Principles that “provide the foundations for the strategic planning objectives […] that make up the QNDF.” (1:2.3.1) For example, Key Planning Challenges include items such as rapid urban development, the lack of quality public transport and the lack of affordable housing options for nonQataris, among others (see box 1 in [1]). These Key Planning Challenges do not take into account important challenges faced by private sector developers looking to invest in real-estate in Qatar: in particular, a fragmented and complex real-estate regulatory framework that hinders private sector investment. The QNDF report recognizes related problems: “The current system of managing and assessing development is piecemeal wherein each Ministry and Agency considers its own individual requirements in isolation of the broader Government and development requirement.” (1:5.1.1) Also “[t]here are a number of different zoning controls and development regulations applying separately to the cities and towns of Qatar.” (1:5.1.2) The QNDF has addressed these problems by “recommend[ing] a new, integrated planning and development assessment process with improved compliance and enforcement.” These recommendations focus on the efficient implementation of QNDF objectives but do not take into account the current real-estate regulatory framework. Recommendations: The core challenge facing the Government vis-à-vis the existing realestate regulatory framework is two-fold: first, to ensure that government investment, including investment in World Cup venues, lays the groundwork for private sector involvement, and second to facilitate private sector engagement by streamlining realestate related administrative procedures. The establishment of a real-estate focal point or special purpose vehicle (SPV) that allows for private sector involvement in development activities in Qatar will overcome these core challenges. In addition, the establishment of this SPV will facilitate the achievement of various objectives embodied in the QNDF vision statement, in particular “producing an attractive and livable urban environment” (Figure 3.1 in [1]) by allowing organic private-sector driven growth in the urban landscape that responds to consumer demand, also “promoting economic and environmental sustainability” by ensuring that costs related to urban development are shouldered by both public and private sector entities. This recommendation is also a complementary measure to “providing a robust and innovative spatial legislative planning framework” (Figure 3.1 in [1]) by ensuring greater private sector involvement in achieving Qatar’s National Development Framework. Private and Confidential Page 10 QNMP and QNDF: Review and Recommendations – May 2012 3.2 PUBLIC POLICY FRAMEWORK AS DEMAND DRIVER Background: In its vision statement, the QNDF stresses the importance of creating “a distinctive identity for Doha as an international cultural center and dynamic knowledge hub” (Figure 3.1 in [1]). This vision is based on the identification of 5 Key Challenges including “balancing economic growth, social development and environmental management” (Figure 2.1 in [1]) from the QNV2030. These Key Challenges have in turn led to the formulation of 4 Pillars of Sustainable Development in the QNV2030 which include the “development of a competitive and diversified economy capable of meeting the needs of and securing a high standard of living” for its people (Figure 2.1 in [1]). These considerations have led to the establishment of 6 Guiding Principles in QNMP 2032, among them economic diversification and growth: “supporting economic growth and diversification, fostering competitiveness, encouraging business investment and stimulating innovation.” The QNDF establishes the spatial framework to achieve these national human, social, economic and environmental goals. Recommendations: In addition to a spatial framework to manage growth, complementary measures should be undertaken to ensure that an appropriate package of public policies is developed to ensure that investment by government and government-related entities result in the creation of a knowledge-based economy. We recommend the development and establishment of a Public Policy Framework that promotes the creation of a knowledge-based economy by defining a unique value proposition for doing business in Qatar. This Public Policy Framework will result in genuine economic diversification, attract wealth-creating businesses and high-skill workers, ensure profitable and financially viable government investment in the coming decades and facilitate the creation of a knowledge-based economy through knowledge-transfer to Qataris and Qatari-owned businesses. This Public Policy Framework should be developed in consultation with relevant stakeholders and result in policies that target particular sectors and take into account the increasingly competitive nature of the regional economic landscape. This Public Policy Framework will also address rules and regulations that pertain to attracting and retaining foreign talent. The development of this Public Policy Framework is in line with QNDF and will contribute to attracting the high-skill workforce that will transform Qatar into a knowledge-based economy. 3.3 MACROECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT Background: The document recognizes Key Planning Challenges for Qatar (Box 1 in [1]) and provides 6 Sustainable Guiding Principles to “provide the foundations for strategic planning objectives, plans, policies and policy actions that make up the QNDF.” [1:2.3.1]. Among them is economic growth and diversification: “Supporting economic growth and diversification, fostering competitiveness, encouraging business investment and stimulating innovation.” (Figure 2.1 in [1]).The QNDF vision, among other things, is to “promote economic and environmental sustainability by guiding and focusing future major public and private sector investments [development]” (Figure 3.1 in [1]) Various economic forecasts have been used to prepare QNDF and “form the foundation for the QNDF’s spatial development strategy.” In particular growth assumptions based on GSDP forecasts put growth at around 10% per annum to 2015, then stabilizing at 7% per annum between 2016 to 2030 (1:2.4.2). QNDF foresees “impressive GDP growth in trade, services and transport, manufacturing with a move towards high-technology (ICT), media, education, health and tourism.” (1:2.4.3) While total employment is predicted to be constant, there will be “major upward shifts in demand for high skilled workers, balanced by major reductions in the construction workforce around 2017.” (1:2.4.4). Private and Confidential Page 11 QNMP and QNDF: Review and Recommendations – May 2012 3.4 Recommendations: GDP growth forecasts by the IMF World Economic Outlook put growth at between 4% to 6% for the period 2012-2016. Refer to Figure 1 below for a breakdown between hydrocarbon and non-hydrocarbon growth. Non-hydrocarbon growth is expected at slightly below 9% for the coming year. Movements in population growth mirror those of non-hydrocarbon economic growth rather than overall economic growth (see Figure 2). This in turn highlights the importance of economic diversification as a driver of growth in the country’s skilled labor force. Figure 3 shows that about 2/3 of the population in Qatar and a sample comparable (Saudi Arabia) are unskilled or semi-skilled workers. The population mix in Dubai is 41% of skilled workers, only slightly above Qatar and Saudi Arabia, despite the UAE being at a much later stage of economic diversification than neighboring Gulf States (see Figure 3). This puts into question QNDF assumptions that imply an upward shift in highly skilled workers that will balance major reductions in the unskilled workforce following the completion of various public works milestones in 2017. We recommend the development of up-to-date and realistic economic projections for non-hydrocarbon growth, growth decomposition by sector, and growth in population by skill level. These economic projections should be based on transparent assumptions and state-of-the-art modeling and implications should be used for revising the integrated package of plans, policies and regulations comprising QNMP. FIGURES Figure 3 Qatar: Real GDP (Hydrocarbon and Non-Hydrocarbon) and Population Growth Rates, 2000-2013P 35,0% 30,0% 25,0% 20,0% 15,0% 10,0% 5,0% 0,0% -5,0% 2000-06 Real GDP 2007 2008 Hydrocarbon GDP 2009 2010 2011 Non-Hydrocarbon GDP 2012P 2013P Population Growth Source: Tanween research based on IMF, Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia, April 2012 Figure 4 Qatar: Share of Expatriates in Labour Force by Skill Level, 2010 Private and Confidential Page 12 QNMP and QNDF: Review and Recommendations – May 2012 32% 36% 34% 41% Skilled and HighSkilled Semi-skilled 42% 43% Unskilled 31% 26% Qatar 16% Saudi Arabia Dubai Note: Dubai data is for year 2009. Source: Tanween research based on National Authorities, April 2012 Figure 5 GCC: Oil Exports/GDP Ratio, 2006-2012P 52% 48% 44% 54% 48% 28% 2012 55% 50% 47% 56% 52% 29% 2011 49% 46% 47% 43% 44% 39% 57% 26% 25% 2010 43% 48% 43% 62% 56% 47% 54% 59% 33% 58% 52% 45% 50% 53% 29% 58% 52% 47% 51% 53% 32% Bahrain Kuwait Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia UAE 2009 2008 2007 2006 Source: Tanween research based on IMF, Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia, October 2011 Private and Confidential Page 13 QNMP and QNDF: Review and Recommendations – May 2012 4. QNMP TECHNICAL REVIEW AND RECOMMENDATIONS 4.1 CONSTRUCTION PROGRAM The overall development plans and procurement of sites can be expected to be completed by the end of 2017. We assume that the 2032 master plan will be frozen by 2015, with few opportunities for change. The Master Plan report for each policy time frames as follows: Immediate - December 2012, Short term December 2017, and Medium Term – December 2032 (see 1:1.5.3.) The infrastructure and development program identifies that most of the major works will be carried out in the next five years leading up to end-2017. The most active period coincides with Qatar’s maximum projected GDP and oil and gas revenues: 2017 corresponds to peak oil output and revenue return, peak construction activity followed by major reduction and when major projects and developments are expected to be completed. 4.2 DEVELOPMENT OPPORTUNITIES Policy BE1 of QNDF (pp. 161 in [2]) establishes a Hierarchy of Centers with the purpose of managing urban growth. The purpose of this Hierarchy is to “provide a focus for mixed-use, mixed density developments” that Private and Confidential Page 14 QNMP and QNDF: Review and Recommendations – May 2012 “will give clarity, direction and confidence for the private sector” (2:11.5.1). Opportunities for development in relation to services that would be provided for specific areas are as follows: 4.3 Airport City (Airport related businesses, hotels, residential, offices, F+B) Port (Warehouse, open air storage, truck parks, offices, residential) Education City (offices, R+D, accommodation, F+B) Downtown Doha (Fully mixed use high density developments) West Bay (Fully mixed used high density development) TECHNICAL REVIEW SUMMARY The majority of development plans and opportunities will be realized by December 2017 (1:2.5.13). Completion of this projects is recognized as a short term objective. Transport hubs including metro and rail stations will be prime development sites in Doha. There is a recognition that Qatari Nationals will wish to live in neighborhoods separate from the expat community. There is major concern that the existing planning and regulatory approval system will be unable to cope with the high level of development forecast, particularly with respect to generating approvals. This may result in the Regulatory Services sub-contracting the approval process to engineering consultants. 4.4 TECHNICAL REVIEW IMPLICATIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS QNDF has allocated land around Doha to contain urban sprawl. This land will act as a Greenbelt and is currently located roughly in the areas of Umm Slal to the north, Al Rayyan and al Wakra to the west and south of the city, respectively (see Figure 4.2 in [1]). The introduction and enforcement of the Greenbelt will increase demand and prices for potential development land in Greater Doha. A key feature of QNDF is the creation of metropolitan and town centers underpinned by Transited Oriented Development (TOD) (see Box 3 in [1]). Metropolitan Doha Struture Plan (2032) envisages the following centers as Metropolitan Centers: West Bay, Downtown Doha and Airport City and the following centers as Town Centers: Umm Slal Mohammed, Al Gharrafa, Al Sadd, Al Thumama, Doha, and Al Wakra (see Figure 4.2 in [1]). Large scale, high rise, high density developments in the new metropolitan and town centers will create a boom in land values in localized areas, as developers attempt to obtain suitable sites for critical mass. This boom in land values is more likely to occur if the planned transportation infrastructure is built. Metropolitan areas and particularly new residential developments will cater for western lifestyles with open plan housing and communal facilities including shared gardens and pool areas. Private and Confidential Page 15 QNMP and QNDF: Review and Recommendations – May 2012 Due to the bespoke nature of building design, traditional Qatari architecture and urban form (Heart of Doha and Al Khor redevelopment) will be relatively expensive compared to developments in the new centers. This puts pressure on the financial viability of commercial development projects in these areas. Industrial growth is focused in QP towns, the Doha Industrial Area and Qatar Economic Zones (2.4.6 in [1]). Other large scale enterprise zones including the airport, port, Qatar University and others will generate specialist development opportunities in the same way that QP towns have done, to cater for mixed use development for work and residential purposes. We expect increasingly severe traffic congestion in Doha from 2013 to 2016. 5. REAL ESTATE MARKET COMPONENT REVIEW AND RECOMMENDATIONS 5.1 RESIDENTIAL DEMAND AND SUPPLY ANALYSIS QNMP estimates the population for 2017, 2030 and 2032 to be 1.9million (mn), 2.2mn and 2.3mn, respectively. Tanween however estimates that population in 2017 will be 2.2mn comprising 75% skilled, semi-skilled and elementary workers. These population estimates are based on Qatar winning the Bid to host the 2022 FIFA World Cup. Similarly Tanween projects about 4% population growth for the period 2012-2030 with an average annual employment of about 1.9mn over this period. This is in contrast to the more conservative estimate of 1.2mn over the period 2008 – 2032. Total committed large scale developments in Metropolitan Doha will increase residential units by approximately 120,000 by 2017. These are likely to cater to mid to high income households (above QAR20,000 monthly income). Tanween however estimates demand for only 65,000 units from MPTAP, Clerks and Service Workers over the same period indicating an oversupply. A majority of this demand will however come from household/individuals with a monthly income Private and Confidential Page 16 QNMP and QNDF: Review and Recommendations – May 2012 between QAR5,000–QR20,000. This implies that committed large scale developments should be re-oriented to absorb demand from low to mid income groups. 5.2 Additional demand for labour accommodation by 2017 will be approximately 40,000 units corresponding to demand for 240,000 workers. While QNMP has identified the need for this type of accommodation, there is no clear demarcation on location. STATUS OF EXISTING AND COMMITTED LARGE SCALE DEVELOPMENTS, DOHA (2017) The table below shows existing and committed projects by 2017 and their actual current status. Table 1 Actual Status Projects planned until 2017 Under construction Completed Unknown* Airport City Al Wakra City Al Wukair City (Phase 1) Barwa Al Baraha Truck City Barwa City Doha Industrail Area Lusail Karwa City QEZ 3 The Pearl West Bay Lagoon & Lagoona West Bay Towers Al Waab City (On Hold Currently) Barwa Al Saad Bawra Commercial Avenue Barwa Housing (Mesaimeer) Barwa Housing (Sailiyah) Barwa Village Education City Hamad Medical Facility Heart of Doha Private and Confidential Page 17 QNMP and QNDF: Review and Recommendations – May 2012 Actual Status Projects planned until 2017 Under construction Completed Qatar University Expansion Industrail Area (SMSIA) Al Shafallar Center Aspire Zone Barwa Al Doha Barwa Financial District Unknown* Central Market Corniche Cultural Village Doha Grand Park Fishing Port Redevelopment Islamic Art Museum Park Lusail Heritage Project Muntazah Park Re -development North Gate Project QEZ 1 QEZ 2 Qatar National Museum Souq Waqif St. Regis Hotel State Mosque Wakra Waterfront development Zone 6 Zone 7 * Project Unknown / currently no construction activity on the development / no development announcement have been made Source: QNMP, Tanween Market Research Only 64% of committed projects have been completed to date. Those under construction are likely to be completed by 2015 - 2016. Tanween field research and market monitoring suggests however no sign of construction activity nor has any major announcement been made for the remainder of the planned projects. 5.3 BUILT ENVIRONMENT – INTEGRATION OF SINGLE USE ACTIVITIES Private and Confidential Page 18 QNMP and QNDF: Review and Recommendations – May 2012 The map below illustrates the known location of Large Single Use Activities and current Barwa projects: Figure 6 Private and Confidential Page 19 QNMP and QNDF: Review and Recommendations – May 2012 Source: Tanween Research and Google Maps Large Single Use Activity 1. Qatar University 2. Education City 3. Corniche Redevelopment Area/ Grand Park 4. Doha Port 5. Airport City 6. QEZ 1 7. QEZ 3 8. New Doha Port 9. Doha Industrial Area 10. QEZ 2 Barwa Developments Competitor Developments 1. Barwa Masaken (Sailiyah) 2. Barwa Commercial Avenue 1. Lusail City 3. Barwa City 3. The Pearl Qatar 4. Barwa Masaken (Meiseimeer) 5. Barwa Village 6. Barwa Al Sadd 2. West Bay Lagoon 4. Musheireb Properties 5. Al Waab City 6. Ezdan Residential Developments Private and Confidential Page 20 QNMP and QNDF: Review and Recommendations – May 2012 5.4 LOCATION/PROXIMITY MATRIX OF LARGE SINGLE USE ACTIVITIES The matrix below identifies real estate opportunities for Barwa as a Key Stakeholder to support the integration of existing and proposed Large Single Use Activities areas, in line with QNDF objectives. Table 2 S No. Large Single Use Activity Barwa Developments (2 kms radius) Major Developments 1. Qatar University None West Bay Lagoon Retail, community facilities 2. Education City None None Retail, affordable residential housing, community facilities 3. Corniche Redevelopment Area/ Grand Park None Musheireb Properties None 4. Doha Port None Independent developments None 5. Airport City None None Retail, affordable residential housing, community facilities 6. QEZ 1 Barwa Village Independent developments Retail, affordable residential housing, community facilities 7. QEZ 3 None Ezdan Residential Developments Retail, affordable residential housing, community facilities 8. New Doha Port None Ezdan Residential Developments Retail, affordable residential housing, community facilities 9. Doha Industrial Area Barwa Commercial Avenue None Community facilities 10. QEZ 2 None Qatar Logistic Villlage None (2 kms radius) Real Estate Development Opportunities for Barwa Private and Confidential Page 21 QNMP and QNDF: Review and Recommendations – May 2012 5.5 REVIEW SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS QNDF projected population figures do not currently factor in Qatar’s winning bid to host the FIFA World Cup in 2022. Most of the existing and committed projects outlined in QNMP are skewed towards mid and high income categories. There is however sizeable demand for affordable housing and labour accommodation. Tanween research shows that 35% of the committed projects show no sign of construction activity. No major announcement regarding these projects has been made. Based on integration requirements of Large Single Use Activities (policy BE 03 page 151 of [2]), Airport City, QEZ 1, QEZ 3, New Doha Port and Education City are potential opportunity areas for real estate development (high street retail, affordable residential development and community facilities). Potential real estate development opportunities exist in municipalities such as Al Khor adjacent to the projected development of Aerospace City (2:4.7.3), New Al Wakra which will serve Mesaieed Industrial City and Umm Slal, adjacent to Shamal Road and where a number of shopping venues are in the pipeline (Festival City, Ezdan and Gulf Mall and Northgate.) QNMP 2030 has identified 25 District Centres within the Metropolitan Area and 18 District Centres outside the Metropolitan Area for Mixed Use developments on a priority basis. QNDF notes that high rates of population growth have strained government resources in providing among other things recreational and leisure activities for its citizen (2.2.3 in [1]). QNDF also notes that despite the promity of coastal zones throughout Qatar, “there is a significant underprovision of recreational and leisure facilities in coatal locations for the community to enjoy.” (2:8.1.5) Important development opportunity for recreational and leisure facilities exist in coastal locations. Looking at the current scenario Al Khor City, Ruwais and Al Shamal are key potential areas. Private and Confidential Page 22 QNMP and QNDF: Review and Recommendations – May 2012 6. ABBREVIATIONS AND REFERENCES 6.1 ABBREVIATIONS 6.2 GSDP: General Secretariat for Development Planning. QNDF: Qatar National Development Framework. QNMP: Qatar National Master Plan. QNV2030: Qatar National Vision 2030. REFERENCES [1] Qatar National Development Framework 2010-2032, Executive Summary. November 2010. [2] Qatar National Development Framework 2010-2032, Final Draft. November 2010. Private and Confidential Page 23