American Association for Public Opinion Research
A Predictive Theory of Opinion-Using Nine "Mode" and "Tense" Factors
Author(s): Stuart Carter Dodd
Source: The Public Opinion Quarterly, Vol. 20, No. 3 (Autumn, 1956), pp. 571-585
Published by: Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Association for Public
Opinion Research
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A Predictive Theory of OpinionUsing Nine "Mode" and
"6Tense" Factors
By STUART CARTER DODD
By considering the mood, tense, number, and voice of responses to poll questions the
author believes the correlation between responses and behavior can be improved. Here
he describes the theory and technique of this approach to polling and shows their
relevance for election prediction and rumor control.
Stuart Carter Dodd is Professor of Sociology and Director of The Washington
Public Opinion Laboratory at The University of Washington.
P UBLIC OPINION ANALYSIS has developed in the past two decades more as a
set of effective polling practices than as a scientific theory. Polling has effe
tively described a public's opinions and in some cases, succeeded in predicting
public behavior. An underlying theory, however, has lagged behind polling
in development. All too often a "theory" has been expressed in terms of vague
verbal definitions and partial descriptions. Discussions of public opinion have
also tended to specialize on political or consumer opinions, or on other special
fields. A scientific theory of opinion, however, must encompass the full scope
of opinion including all activity and all preparatory adjustments for any behavior studied in the social sciences.
Public opinion research has lacked a theory to guide its growth into new
realms with increasing precision and power of prediction. The warp of
practice and the woof of theory need to be woven together into a more useful
fabric of opinion research. This paper attempts to develop a more adequate
theory of opinion. The following specifications will be followed here as a
guide: "Any scientific theory should offer a predictive system of tested principles or testable hypotheses which specify relations among operationally
defined variables." These specifications will be discussed with reference to
our theory in this paper.
THE FRAMEWORK OF THE MODE-TENSE THEORY OF OPINION
The mode-tense theory deals with two important dimensions of human
behavior. (1) A respondent's answers about his behavior are classed into the
past, the present, and the future tense of time, (relative to the moment of
answering). (2) The mode-tense theory specifies that each of the three tenses
be subclassified by the three "modes" of the respondent's speech behavior as
defined by his using the words "I feel . . . ," or "I know . . . ," or "I do. . ."
The feeling, knowing, and doing modes of behavior are operationally defined
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572 PUBLIC OPINION QUARTERLY
by the poller recording the exact words of the respondent in response to
questions which attempt to isolate these modes.
In polling, what the polled respondent says he does is often taken to indicate what he actually does. This assumes a high validity correlation between
speech and action, between poll response and "life" response. This validity
correlation can be improved under poll conditions which get the fullest possible comprehension, articulateness, sincerity, and cooperativeness from the
respondent. The mode-tense approach is designed to facilitate these conditions.
Since speech behavior in a poll (which might be called "opining") is a
verb, this variable can vary in all the grammatical ways there are for con-
jugating verbs. It can vary in person and number, in tense, voice, and mood.
This varying is controlled by asking the questions so as to get answers in the
first person singular, present tense, active voice and indicative mood. The
answers are some variant of the ideal type: "I opine. . . ." Then, by tabulating
for all persons in the poll, the distribution of that population's opinion on that
question is determined for that date. "Polled public opinion" is thus here
defined as the distribution of polled responses. The questions asked and the
polling technics and conditions complete the operational definition. This
should be called "polled opinion," letting the term, "popular opinion" mean
opinions of the populace determined in other ways. The term "public
opinion," then, may mean either or both the polled or the popular opinions.
Whenever the poll questions ask about attitudes, the verbalized response is
here defined as "an opinion" in the narrower sense. An opinion is the
assertion of an attitude. "An attitude" in turn is defined as preparatory behavior, a readiness to respond in a certain way toward an object whenever the
external situation is appropriate. This behavioristic definition of opinion as
the verbalizing of incipient and covert behavior may improve the scientist's
ability to predict the overt criterion behavior.
Affirmation, Intensity, and Formedness as Introspective Opinions. Polling
is usually started by asking the respondent to affirm or deny some basal
opinion. For example, "Are you for or against X?" usually draws out the
pro-con direction of opinion. Later refinements scale the X and ask for the
degree or amount of it desired. This affirmation is the basal subclass of opinion about which, according to our theory, eight other mode-tense subclasses
of opinion revolve. The central opinion expresses what the respondent thinks
or knows in the present tense (and first person singular, active voice, indicative mood). The other eight subopinions (Table 1) qualify it as a logical
product qualifies any class-namely by limiting its meaning to what is also
the meaning of the qualifying class. Thus the opinion "I think X would
make the best president, but I don't expect he'll get it" qualifies the basal
affirmation (OTAK in Table 1) with a contrary expectation (+TAK).
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A PREDICTIVE THEORY OF OPINION 573
To improve prediction of respondent behavior, pollers began asking for
the intensity of the respondent's feeling-"How strongly do you feel about ...
(the basal affirmation) ?" This intensity subopinion has been scaled in terms
of phrases like "very strongly, strongly, moderately" or in terms of the
"give/get ratio."' This latter ratio measures intensity of feeling for an object
by what the respondent will give of his time and effort, money, or other
sacrifice in exchange for what he affirms in the basal opinion he wants to
get.2
Early in polling it was found that respondents with "no opinion" had to
be classified separately. Prediction is surer when limited to those who do
have an opinion; a large "don't know" percentage in a poll seems a warning
of unstable opinion and unreliable prediction. Instead of treating this subopinion as an all-or-none attribute of having or not having an opinion it
may be observed in degrees such as:
Score Respondent's Behavior (rated by interviewer)
0 No opinion
1 Probing needed to get an opinion expressed
2 A hesitant unready response
3 A normal ready response
4 An abnormally overready response interrupting
the unfinished question
This score (when better scaled) could measure the "formedness"
opinion. It has been called the crystallization or incipiency, or readiness, or
preparedness of the basal opinion and of the overt behavior it prepares for.
Note that these three subopinions-the affirmation, its intensity, and its
formedness-are expressed in the present tense and deal respectively with
what the respondent thinks, feels, or is doing about the basal question. They
represent the respondent's current introspections as classified in the middle
col. in Table 1. They also represent somewhat the historical development of
expanding the questioning in polls in order to sample more aspects of
opinion.
Information, Interests, and Habits as Retrospective Opinions. Next, polls
began screening out the uninformed respondents by means of information
questions. These may depend on the respondent's classifying himself as to
his information about the basal question or they may depend on demonstrated ignorance as in asking "Do you happen to know who is now our
Secretary of State?" Information filters are added to polls whenever the
1 Dodd, Stuart C. and Thos. R. Gerbrick, "Word Scales for Degrees of Opinion." (To be
published.)
2 Dodd, Stuart C., "A Verifiable Hypothesis of Human Tensions," International journal of
Opinion and Attitude Research, Vol. 4, (1950) No. 1.
3 Dodd, Stuart C. and Karen Svalastoga, "On Estimating Latent from Manifest Undecidedness," Educational and Psychological Measurement, Vol. 12, (Autumn 1952) No. 3.
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574 PUBLIC OPINION QUARTERLY
predicted behavior depends in part on possess
knowing how to register in order to be able
As polls developed they took over more of
a person's interest and experience were probed whenever a forecast of his
future performance was desired. Polls began to probe one's relevant likes
and dislikes in the past. They probed the feelings the respondent had built
up on anything correlated with the basal opinion. In short, they probed any
of his interests from the past that might influence his future behavior.
They also probed the respondent's relevant experience. What habits, what
skills, what routines has he developed which might influence his future behavior in the respect to be predicted? His past acts obviously would tend to
foretell his future acts.
The three foregoing subopinions develop the first column of Table 1. For
they are retrospective questions finding out what, if anything, the respondent knew or felt or did in the past relative to the basal question.
Expectations, Anticipations, and Intentions as Prospective Opinions. A
later development in polls, and one still little developed, was to ask the
respondent about the future. Here again the knowledge question led off in
asking what the respondent expected would happen apart from his own hopes
or intentions. "What do you think is most likely to happen?" "What do you
think the chances in a hundred are that X will happen?" Such expectation
questions tried to get a purely cognitive estimate of perceived probability.
Supplementing the respondent's expectations are questions about his
anticipations, his hopes and fears, his feelings about the basal questions when
projected into the future. These anticipations are partly compounds of the
other subopinions. For all the subopinions are apt to be highly correlated
together in proportion as the respondent's personality is integrated. His effective anticipations may largely overlap with his cognitive expectations and his
conative intentions to act. Also his anticipated feelings in the future will
usually show continuity with his present intensity of feeling and his past
interests. In fact, all nine subopinions of mode and tense are usually intercorrelated in varying degrees. But they are imperfectly correlated and hence
probing each separately may increase their joint predictivity.
Finally, a ninth subopinion in polls is the answer to any question as to the
respondent's intention to act personally as part of, or as a step toward, the
mass behavior to be predicted. Does he express personal responsibility in
influencing the criterion behavior of the population by his own behavior?
In the absence of biassing pressures a person's expressed intention to act in
a specific way may be among the best predicters of such acts.
These last three subopinions dealing with expectations, anticipations, and
intentions develop the last col. in Table 1. They deal with the future as
prospective opinions of the knowing, feeling and doing modes.
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A PREDICTIVE THEORY OF OPINION 575
THE ANALYTIC USE OF THE MODE-TENSE THEORY
The three modes of opining-feeling, knowing, doing-may now be cross
classified formally in a matrix with the three tenses of opining-retrospecting,
introspecting, and prospecting. This arranges familiar ideas in systematic
form and furthers statistical development such as in factor analyses, variance
analyses, matrix multiplication, etc. It can help in the inventing of questions
for a poll in a new realm by serving as a check list. The poller can ask himself: "Have I invented and phrased questions about each mode separately
and about each tense?" "Is such analytic questioning likely to get more predictive answering?"
TABLE 1
THE NINE SUBOPINIONS OF MODE AND TENSE, tAa,
AS COVERT ACTS (A) PREDICTING LATER OVERT BEHAVIOR (+TA)
Tenses**
tA The Past, The Present, The Future,
Retrospective Introspective Prospective
Modes**
opinions opinions opinions
_TA
OTA
+TA
Aa S
Feeling Interests Ititensity Anticipation
"I felt -" "I feel strongly-" "I hope
AF
-TAF
OTAF
+TAF
Knowing Information Affirmation Expectation
"I knew-" "I know-" "I expect
"I think
AK
-TAK
OTAK
+TAK
Doing Habits Formedness or Intention
"I did-" Readiness "I intend
(ratings) ranging
from "Don't
know" to overready opinion
AD
*
As
_TAD
OTAD
professional
+TAD
jargon,
the
"did feel" "now feel" "will feel"
"did know" "now know" "will know" opinions
"did do" "now do" "will do"
** A denotes "acts." In opinion polls the A denotes verbalized attitudes or preparatory acts. The pre-script denotes the tense, or class-interval of time, from the present
as origin; the postscript denotes the mode or class of acting. A capital letter script
denotes "a particular one," i.e., the singular; a lower case script denotes "a set of -,"
i.e., the plural. Thus A. means "the set of 3 modes of acts," while AF means the feeling
mode of acts"; and tA means "the set of 3 tenses of acts" while -TA means "the past
tense of acts."-
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576 PUBLIC OPINION QUARTERLY
It should be emphasized that the names for the subopinions written in
each cell in Table 1 are suggestive only-the definition of each of the nine
subopinions is as the logical product of the marginal classes. Each subopinion
is jointly characterized as referring either to the past, present, or future tense
and as expressed by the respondent in synonyms of feeling, knowing, or
doing. The nine-fold opinion is the logical product of two logical sumsthree alternative tenses taken jointly with three alternative modes. It is expected, when predicting a given criterion, that each of the nine subclasses of
opinion might be represented by one or more statistical indices and that each
index would be reliably scaled in more than all-or-none degrees.
To test the mode-tense theory of opinion it may be formally stated as
the following set of hypotheses:
The summarizing hypothesis is: "How polled people answer questions about their feeling, knowing, or doing in the past, present, or future tends to predict their later relevant
behavior." 4
The essence of this hypothesis is that the prediction yielded by any one subopinion in a given situation will be improved by using more subopinions.
This summarizing hypothesis is analyzable into nine substantive subhypotheses each of which expects one mode-and-tense subopinion when included
in the predictance index to improve the prediction.
Then there are five more methodological sub-hypotheses. These subhypotheses expect improved predicting according as the researcher fulfills each
of the following conditions:
1) finding the optimally phrased questions and consequent indices to represent each
class of subopinion;
2) finding the optimal units for each index;
3) finding the optimal range from origin to terminal points for each index;
4) finding the optimal exponents of the arithmetic indices or multiple regression
weightings of the logarithmic indices; and
5) combining the indices for the opinions multiplicatively.
Finally, all the above may require some repeating for the three forms of
prediction as forecasting in time, estimating from a sample population, and
4The strength of this total tendency may be arbitrarily guessed in the present early stage
of research at one half of complete determination by expecting a correlation in general of .71
or higher. This sets a statistically testable goal for the researcher. It is guessed at usually one
half of a perfect index of determination (r2) since the modes and tenses are only two of the
many dimensions of opinion. The other factors in determining a public's behavior (such as the
eight classes of factors in our more inclusive dimensional theory) may well account in general
for the other half of the predicted behavior. This correlation, of course, depends on the particular set of indices chosen to represent the nine subopinions, the range of each index, the
heterogeneity of the population, and other factors. These indices, ranges and populations will
need to be standardized progressively with research such as psychologists have done with intelligence tests.
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A PREDICTIVE THEORY OF OPINION 577
validating poll indices by their correlation with observed indices of the
criterion behavior to be predicted.5
THE MODE-TENSE FORMULATION AND SCIENTIFIC THEORY
A predictive theory should specify: a) the dependent variable or criterion
behavior to be predicted, b) the independent variables or predicters, and c)
the predicting technic.6
In the mode-tense theory, the behavior predicted is any observable mass
behavior such as voting, buying, reading, listening, eating, playing, working,
striving, planning, aspiring, or just opining (i.e., expressing one's opinion.)
The predicted mass behavior may be any overt or covert act which many peo-
ple do and do often. The predicters are the public's responses in a poll, i.e.,
the nine subopinions measured before the predicted behavior. The predicting
technic is chiefly to test the closeness of fit (and its reliability) of the model
to the criterion (Equation 1). This may involve correlating the predicters
5 This theory may be still further formalized in algebraic notation as a mathematical model
to further exact testing. In this dimensional form [denoted by square brackets] the mode-tense
"predictance" may be written as "a sum of products of powers of basic factors," namely:
D t a ~eq. 1, defining
[TA~ d f J "JA] "The predict1 1 ance" at time T
This defines the mode-tense predictance TA,
p
set of p persons (1) of the product (it) in each person, of nine (t X a = 3 X 3) mode-tense
1
factors or speech acts (tAa), namely the set of three tense factors (tl) times the set of three
mode factors (.a), when each factor is weighted by its exponent (i').
Then the mode-tense hypothesis (denoted by the question mark below) expects a high prediction correlation (R) between the predictance and the later (+Tl) predicted activity (+TA),
i.e.,
RD+TA.TA)
? )Equation
2, the
R
( + TA . TA
.?> .71 pothesis
mode-tense hy-
The alternative additive subhypothesis (for #5 above) would write the model formula for the
"summative predictance" as a sum of the nine mode and tense variables in each person with
the nine b's as multiple regression weights, namely:
p ta
TA,d ef OP E t(bA)a Eq. 3
1 1
Then the "summative mode-tense hypothesis," if pitched similarly at the halfway expectation, is:
R(T+A*TAX) ?> .71 Eq. 4
6 Dodd, Stuart C., "Predictive Principles for Polls," Public Opinion Quarterly, Vol. XV,
(Spring 1951) No. 1.
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578 PUBLIC OPINION QUARTERLY
and predicted in one situation and then applying the resulting regression
equation to further situations.
Ideally, the complete procedure should involve going further and specifying the exact curve or model which correlates the predicters with the predicted. If an empirical model is to be developed into a rational model, it
should further involve deriving the model mathematically from its assumptions, each of which matches or expresses a social pre-condition. This process
of model matching and fitting finds the form and amount of the pre-conditions and their relations to use in predicting in new but similar situations
thereafter. In general, the mode-tense theory expects the pre-conditions of
the criterion behavior to be more than threshold amounts of each of the nine
mode-tense subopinions. The model is specified by Equation 1 (or 3).
A theory of human behavior, furthermore, should predict behavior along
three chief dimensions. Thus, along the time dimension, the predictive technics should forecast from earlier predicter acts to a later predicted behavior.
Along the population dimension, the predictive technics should estimate from
the polled sample to the parent population (without any time interval).
Along the behavior dimension, the predictive technics should validate the
predicter responses in the poll by their multiple regression equation with the
predicted mass behavior (when both behaviors are at the same time and by
the same persons so that neither forecasting nor estimating are involved).
The predictive techniques should predict along these three dimensions of
time, people, and their acts, both when each varies alone with the other two
held constant, and when they vary in any combination.
A scientific theory should also be a system of hypotheses or principles,
each of which is testable and has a specified technic for testing it. In the
dimensional theory proposed here each hypothesis can be tested in suitably
designed polls. The substantive hypotheses relate predicters to the predicted
behavior or to each other. These relations define the system which may be
expressed as a mathematical model or equation of the variables and their ex-
pected relationships. A dimensional model is proposed here defined as a sum
of products of powers of nine basic factors. The methodological sub-hypotheses here expect that each specified technique will improve the prediction
(Equation 2 or 4).
A final specification for a scientific theory is that the variables and their
relations be operationally defined as far as necessary to reproduce them
reliably. In the "mode-tense" theory, every variable can have the identifying
type of operational definition provided by the best currently known techniques or demoscopes or scientific polls. Demoscopes can also help to provide
the fuller operational definitions of the generating and of the adapting types.
These three types deal with the operations of the present, past, and future,
respectively. Among them they state the contents, causes, and consequences
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A PREDICTIVE THEORY OF OPINION 579
of the term defined in telling how to know it (identifying type), how to
make it (generating type), and how to use it (adapting type). Identifying a
defined object in the future tense is predicting it; generating the object in
the future is controlling it; adapting the object in the future for use in the
further future is controlling it still more ultimately. Since prediction and
control are the major functions of science, operational definitions thus become
the major means of carrying out the functions of science.
In testing this mode-tense theory by its predictive ability, an important
and prevalent case should be noted. This case is when the predicter and the
predicted coalesce. They become the same variable wherever the time interval between the predicter poll and the predicted behavior becomes zero.
Whenever the criterion mass behavior is the same as the poll behavior and
we want to know simply the public's polled opinions, then the problems of
forecasting and of validity both vanish. Predicting shrinks to a matter of
estimating the results in the parent population from the sample with a
known degree of reliability.
Testing this general theory of modes and tenses of opinion will require
inventing specific scaled indices defined by the questions asked about each
of the nine subopinions.7 This involves searching for indices with lowest
intercorrelations in order to maximize their multiple correlation predicting
the criterion. Testing will require using the best techniques of predicting'
and of polling.9 All the hypotheses may be tested simultaneously or in subsets
as opportunity offers. Corroborating tests under diverse conditions will be
required to progressively map the limits and the possibilities of this theory.
THE CONSISTENCY WITHIN AND BETWEEN THEORIES-SOME INDICATIONS
Any scientific theory is first tested by its correspondence to the facts,
including its ability to predict them, and second by its consistency within
itself and with existing theories. Let us turn to this second broad test of
truth. How consistent is this mode-tense theory within itself and with other
theories of public opinion?
In considering internal consistency, the relations between the variables are
7 Dodd and Gerbrick, op. cit.
8 See John Dollard, "Under What Conditions Do Opinions Predict Behavior," Public Opinion Quarterly, Vol. XII, (Winter 1948-1949) No. 4; Dodd, "A Measured Wave at Interracial
Tension," Social Forces, Vol. 29, (March 1951) No. 3; Paul Horst, "The Prediction at Personal Adjustment," Social Science Research Council Bulletin, 48, 1941.
9 See Hadley Cantril, Gauging Public Opinion. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1947;
Dodd, Systematic Social Science, American University at Beirut, Social Science Series, No. 7,
1934; Dodd, "Dimensions of a Poll," International journal of Opinion and Attitude Research,
Vol. 3, (Fall 1949) No. 3; Dodd, "Standards for Surveying Agencies," Public Opinion Quarterly,
Vol. XI, (Spring 1947) No. 1; Dodd, "Testing Message Diffusion from Person to Person,"
Public Opinion Quarterly, Vol. XVI, (Spring 1952) No. 1; Dodd, "Diffusion is Predictable,"
American Sociological Review, Vol. XX, No. 4, Aug., 1955.
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580 PUBLIC OPINION QUARTERLY
expected to be as broadly specified either by Equation 1 or Equation 3, (de-
pending on whether multiplicative or additive, combining of the indices pre-
dicts better in general).10
It may be noted that any degree of correlation, curvilinear or rectilinear, is
permitted in Equation 1. Positive correlations are to be expected on psycho-
logical grounds among the three modes of opining in proportion as the
personalities are integrated. Positive correlation is to be expected furthermore,
among the three tenses in proportion as the polled personalities are con-
tinuous or stable in time. But these intercorrelations will not, in general, be
perfect, and may often be low. Measuring each of the nine mode-tense subopinions, therefore, is likely to increase the multiple correlation of these
predicters with the later predicted behavior. This is the main justification for
proposing the mode-tense theory. The essence of this theory is that each mode
and tense subopinion will, in general, contribute something to predicting the
criterion over and above the other subopinions. This implies intercorrelations
that are not too high relative to their criterial correlations.
The degree of consistency of this theory with other theories of opinion is
hard to determine. Since most other theories or definitions and discussions of
public opinion are in non-operational terms, their exact meaning is often
elusive. They often seem to be translatable into the operationally defined
10 At present we expect the multiplicative combination as in Eq. 1 to predict better, providing the indices are optimal as specified above. We expect this because the nine subopinions
seem to us to be jointly and simultaneously present and conditioning each person's behavior
and not present as alternatives that can substitute for each other. Joint presence is symbolized
by the logical product in unquantified data and by algebraic products in quantified data, while
alternative presence is symbolized by the logical sum in qualified data and by the algebraic sum
in quantified data.
Another reason we see for expecting the subopinions to be factors and not addends is that
if any one of them were to be zero in amount (if it could be perfectly measured on an absolute
scale), the resulting total opinion would be non-existent. A product vanishes thus when any
factor is zero while a sum does not vanish when one addend becomes zero. The product thus
expresses a more intimate or intrinsic or mutual union than a sum. Thus chemists symbolize
chemical union in a molecule as the product of atoms and symbolize a physical mixture as a
sum. In a product the factors interact and influence each other, while in a sum they are
merely piled inertly together, as it were.
On the other hand, our current indices of these opinion factors are probably still so crude
that additive or linear combining of them may be adequate. This linear treatment has the
weight of decades of conventional statistics behind it. The mode-tense theory is here stated so
that this issue can be experimentally decided.
The multiplicative combination with factors weighted by their exponents or logarithms has
been found in two cases where it has been explored. Thus Zimmerman found it between a
decision time index of formedness and intensity. Dodd and Griffiths found it between affirmation
and intensity when whites expressed their social distances from Negroes, Chinese, and Japanese.
But these are only hints of what the relation may be in general.
See: L. Postman and C. Zimmerman, "Intensity of Attitude as a Determinant of Decision
Time," American journal of Psychology, Vol. 58, 1945, pp. 510-518; S. C. Dodd and
K. Griffiths, "The Logarithmic Relation of Social Distance and Intensity," journal of Per-
sonality, 1957.
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A PREDICTIVE THEORY OF OPINION 581
terms of polling but with unknown reliability of translation. No exhaustive
comparisons will be undertaken here, but a few examples will be noted of
the relations of the mode-tense theory to Gallup's quintamensional design, to
Guttman's Cornell scales, to Dodd's theory of tensions, to Parson's theory of
social action, and to some general classifications in the literature.
In Gallup's quintamensional design, his open-end and closed-end questions deal with the basal opinion in the mode-tense theory. His intensity and
information questions are those subopinions in the mode-tense theory. His
"reasons why" question covers our "interests" and "habits" for retrospective
reasons and our "anticipations" and "intentions" for prospective reasons. The
mode-tense theory then agrees with the quintamensional design but analyzes
the respondent's total opinion more fully into nine sub-classes instead of
five.
In Guttman's scale analysis his "first component" is our basal opinion.11
His second component is "intensity" in both theories. His third component
"closure" seems largely identifiable with our "formedness." His dimly discerned fourth component which seems something like "ego-involvement"
may prove equatable to our "retrospective" opinions (Column 1 in T'able 1).
A major weakness in Guttman's scaling theory has been his definition of
an attitude universe as all possible statements of that attitude and then providing no sampling technique permitting one to say that "the arbitrarily selected but 90 per cent reproducible set of statements show that the universe
is scalable." The nine modetense classes begin to stratify that universe. They
do not specify the frequency of statements in each stratum, but they can help
qualitatively in assuring that these major strata at least are represented in the
poll.
In Dodd's tension theory a tension ratio or valuation is defined as the
ratio in a person or in a plurel of intensity of desire divided by the amount
of what is wanted.12 Broadly it is the ratio of demand to supply for economic
desiderata or of "unit cost," "unit price," "unit worth," for any objects of
value to the responder. It is measured as his "give/get" ratio, dividing an
index of what he will give or do (for what he wants) by an index of what
he wants to get (or keep). Tensions are hypothesized to cause behavior in
the sense that any striving behavior, (a) occurs later in time, and (b) correlates with the earlier observed tension ratio, and (c) changes predictably
after the tension changes (under specified conditions, of course). By suitable
notation for statistical treatment, tension ratios, and tension products are
organized in matrices to manipulate their varying distributions among per11 See Uriel G. Foa, "Scale and Intensity Analysis in Opinion Research," International journal of Opinion and Attitude Research, Vol. IV, (Summer 1950) No. 2 and Louis Guttman,
"The Third Component of Scalable Attitudes," (Abstract) International Journal of Opinion and
Attitude Research, Vol. IV, (Summer 1950) No. 2.
12 See Stuart C. Dodd, Dimensions of Society. New York: Macmillan and Co., 1942.
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582 PUBLIC OPINION QUARTERLY
sons, periods, and places, in systems of behavior and in systems of values.
This tension theory can become a special case of the mode-tense theory
whenever the basic affirmation in Table 1 states what is wanted (the
desideratum) and the intensity and formedness cells of Table 1 state what
is concurrently felt about it or done to get it.
In Parson's theory of social action the part dealing with "motivational
orientations" of people deals with opinions especially.'3 Motivations are
analyzed into the three "modes":
1) "cathectic" involving affect or feelings;
2) "cognitive" involving perception, etc.; and
3) "evaluative" involving energy expenditure.
This over-simplified resume suggests high correlation between this part of
Parson's theory and the three modes of speech behavior.
Many trichotomies of the past, however, have had one great difficulty
(among many lesser ones); they were difficult to observe reliably, because
they lacked operational definitions. The scientist was unable to say of a
given act or index exactly how much of affection, cognition, or conation it
represented. The mode-tense theory cuts this Gordian knot of semantics by
operationally defining the three modes by the highly observable speech behavior that can be recorded verbatim on every poll questionnaire.
Of course semantic problems still exist but they can now be measured and
manipulated and their effect on predicting can be experimentally determined. Thus some people sometimes say "I think-" to express affect, or
"I feel-" to express cognition. These individual deviations attenuate but do
not obliterate the larger fact that saying "I feel-" usually expresses feelings
predominantly; saying "I think-" usually expresses cognition predominantly,
etc. These speech modes in the mode-tense theory are expected to predict a
large public's criterion behavior better than every individual's behavior. Furthermore, by basing the theory on observed speech behavior most semantic
and other arguments about faculty psychology, whether the modes are ele-
mentary, compound, or intervening variables, etc., become irrelevant. For
whatever the intercorrelation of the three modes may be and whatever their
criterial correlations may be, the theory simply claims that the three modes
and tenses, jointly in a team, will yield a larger multiple correlation with the
criterion to be predicted than they yield separately. This team treatment also
permits the use of words that blend modes, such as "satisfy," since the
blending can be analyzed by correlational and factor analyses.
The consistency of the three modes of behavior with other three-fold
13 See Talcott Parsons and Edward A. Shils, Toward a General Theory of Action. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1951, and G. E. Swanson, "The Approach to a General Theory of Action by Parsons and Shils," American Sociological Review, Vol. 18, (April
1953) No. 2.
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A PREDICTIVE THEORY OF OPINION 583
classifications more widely culled from various
following comparative table. The sizes of the possible correlations between
any two rows in Table 2 are unknown, but might be charted with suitable
research.
TABLE 2
SOME POSSIBLE CORRELATES OF THE THREE MODES OF SPEECH BEHAVIOR
Discipline 4 Feeling Knowing Doing
Psychology Affective Cognitive Conative
Sociology Cathectic, Cognitive Evaluative,
(Parsons) Appreciative moral
General Emotions Intellect Conduct
Philosophy The Beautiful The True The Gbod
Kant's "ultimate Feeling Knowing Willing
modes of psychical
functioning"
Chief Institutional Art Science Ethics
Field
Somatology Endomorphs Ectomorphs Mesomorphs
Neurology Afferent and Central part of Efferent part of
Autonomic the nervous the nervous
part of the system system
nervous system
Physiology The senses The brain The muscles
(and glands)
It is interesting to note that to the extent of the (unknown) correlation
between the feeling-knowing-doing modes of opinion and the sensory-centralmotor regions of the nervous system the basis of the classification by modes
can be viewed as a spatial one. The three modes seem largely centered in the
activity of the three neural regions respectively. Then since the basis of the
tense classification is time, the mode-tense theory would be subclassifying
opinions by the two most basic dimensions of every empirical science, space
and time.'4
TWO EXAMPLES OF THE USE OF THE THEORY
Election Prediction. A major problem in polls predicting elections as in
any predicting poll, is finding the most predictive set of questions to ask.
The mode-tense theory may help here in suggesting "Ask one or more questions of each of these nine kinds. Invent and scale the most relevant questions
14 In studying the three tenses of human activity, note the physicists parallel in subclassifying
"energy" into "work," "kinetic energy," and "potential energy." These concepts have the same
dimensional formula but mean energy in the past tense, in the present tense, and in the future
tense, respectively.
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584 PUBLIC OPINION QUARTERLY
you can to explore the respondent's affirma
his pertinent information, interests and hab
and intentions concerning his basal affirmat
tion is wanted and its price can be paid in a longer poll, our more inclusive
dimensional theory suggests eight further classes of predictive factors to explore.15 It reminds the poller to ask questions about the respondent's characteristics, first individually in plurels, then when interacting in his ingroups,
and thirdly when role-playing in his social organizations. It reminds him to
ask all about the respondent's goals, his stimulation, and other situational
factors. It suggests asking about the timing-How long? When? How fast?
How frequently? How recently? How soon? etc. It prompts spatial questions
-How near or far? Where? How dense? How ubiquituous? etc.
Among these seventeen classes of predicter variables, it may be expected
that in general the nine mode-tense classes will usually be the best predicters.
For they are the criterion behavior observed in its preparatory stages.
Rumor Control. An example of the mode and tense analysis of opinion
going beyond prediction to, develop a bit of control of human behavior is in
the field of rumors.
In psychological warfare (as in advertising, etc.) one wants to spread
rumors favorable to his own side while preventing the spread of the enemy's
rumors. To vary or to control such diffusing of messages from person to
person requires knowing and manipulating the conditions conducive to
rumors. These conditions can be described in terms of the mode-tense theory
as follows. Rumors thrive when the people lack information-whether because of censorship, or because of a disaster disrupting information channels,
or because emergency news is happening faster than it can be authoritatively
collected and published. Rumors thrive when the people intensely desire that
lacking information. It is of unusual import to them-it may mean victory or
defeat in the war, or emergency threats to their homes and loved ones, etc.
Feelings are intensified whether in hope or in fear.
These two conditions which are so conducive to rumors mean a rising
"feel/know" ratio, AF/AK in Table 1. A successful rumor tends to reduce
this feel/know ratio back towards the normal. It makes people think they
know something they wanted to know; it builds up their hopes or reduces
their fears by airing and sharing them. This means that to spread a rumor,
when desired, the feel/know ratio must be increased as a pre-condition. To
check a rumor its relevant feel/know ratios must first be decreased.
15See Stuart C. Dodd, "Human Dimensions-A Re-search for Concepts to Integrate Think-
ing," Main Currents in Modern Thought; "On Classifying Human Values," American Sociological Revieiw, Vol. 16, (October 1951) No. 5; "Sociomatrices and Levels of Interaction,"
Sociametry, Vol. XIV, (May and August 1951) Nos. 2 and 3; and "The Intteractance Hypothesis," American Sociological Review, Vol. XV, (April 1950) No. 2.
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A PREDICTIVE THEORY OF OPINION 585
A third condition favoring rumor spreading is u
The more upset things are, the less the usual expectations hold, the more
ambiguous the situation, the more rumors will fly. This means lower ex-
pectances, +TAK in Table 1. Thus the mode-tense formula for controlling
rumors is chiefly: (a) restore dependable expectations; (b) decrease abnormal feelings; (c) increase information. This means reducing the quantity:
(In Table 1) AF/T AK +TAK.
Allport and Postman state that the two major factors in rumor spreading
are ambiguity and importance.'6 The ambiguity of the situation is represented
by lack of information and unsettled expectations in the mode tense formulation, while the importance factor is largely represented by strong feelings.
The mode-tense theory of opinion is thus a possible aid in predicting and
controlling rumor behavior.
16 See L. Postman and Gordon W. Allport, The Psychology of Rumor. New York: Henry
Holt, 1947, p. 33.
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