ECON 102 Lec.1 We want to satisfy our unlimited human wants but we are constrained by scarce resources (e.g. time, money) Extreme saver vs extreme consumer Economics: efficient allocation of scarce resources to satisfy unlimited human wants D.M.- “decision making” 4 properties constitute efficient decision making: 1. Trade-offs (option a vs b) a. consumption vs investment (a.k.a. consumption now vs consumption later) b. environment vs growth c. equity vs efficiency 2. Opportunity cost (how much): the value of the next best alternative, what you sacrifice 3. Rational people think @ the margin: ability to make a logical decision, information to make a logical decision a. Ability b. Logical (thinking at the margins) c. More > less 4. Incentives N Yes Rival Y Lec.2 5. Trade can make every nation better off a. Variety b. Cheap goods c. More 6. Free markets: efficiently allocate resources (invisible hand), do not interfere with the market 7. Government intervention is required under 5 certain circumstances: a. Equity (pensions, employment insurance, ?) Excludable Y N b. Property rights c. Market power private Yes common i. Monopoly: 1 seller = high price good resource ii. Monopsony: 1 buyer = low price club public iii. Brand names goods good d. Public goods (non-excludable, non-rival) Lec.3 Common resource: excludable but still rival, everyone can use it but there are limited amounts tragedy of commons (e.g. hunting) Public goods: free rider problem (e.g. fireworks) Private good: Club goods: (e.g. Netflix) e. Externalities: the unintentional impact of one person’s actions on the well-being of a bystander (e.g. flu shot you do it to protect yourself, unintentionally protect others too). Taxes can be used to prevent negative externalities; subsidies can be used to “encourage” positive externalities. 8. Living standards: a country’s standards of living depends on its ability to produce goods and services (PRODUCTIVITY) y/l = productivity wage/price = living standard therefore productivity is mean determinant of living standard 9. Inflation is a monetary phenomenon 10. Lec. 4 https://urpe.wordpress.com/2019/01/22/the-unreal-basis-of-neoclassical-economics/ Thinking at the margin MR = MC W = nominal wage W/P = real wage In the short run there is an inverse relationship between unemployment rate and inflation rate Chapter 4 Competitive Markets 4 properties of competitive market: 1. must have many buyers and many sellers 2. homogeneous products 3. perfect information 4. free entry and exit equal access to resources Individuals are price takers, collectively we are price makers Product differentiation: Properties 2 + 3 = Law of one price: a seller cannot charge a higher price of the same good as someone else For competition to exist every supplier must be on an equal playing field Lec. 5 Demand + Supply Model Inverse relationship between P and Q P = 100 - Q P Q *Nobody’s demand curve is upward sloping the line may move upwards (right) Exogenous Variables: 1. Expectation 2. Income 3. P ^ s (substitute price changed) 4. P ^ c (compliment price changed) Ceteris paribus Endogenous variables = variables on Y and X axis Supply Curve Direct relationship between P and Q Q=P Price - Marginal Cost = Profit Margin Higher price = greater profit margin = greater incentive to supply P 1. Input cost 2. Technology Q 3. Expectations *Nobody’s demand curve is upward sloping the line may move upward (left) Entrepreneurs create artificial scarcity (slow production when demand price drops) Equilibrium: Qd = Qs Qd = 100 - p Qs = p 100 - p = p 100 = 2p 50 = p Practice question p.89 A5, p.84 applications #3 Suppliers bring price down during a surplus Suppliers increase price during a shortage QUIZ DUE SUNDAY 11:59PM Lec.6 Demand function is the indirect relationship between price and quantity Supply function is the direct relationship between prince and quantity Demand function and supply function intersect @ the equilibrium Price = below the equilibrium people want to buy, suppliers don’t want to sell = shortage to return to equilibrium the price must go back up Price = above the equilibrium people don’t want to buy, suppliers want to sell = surplus to return to equilibrium price must go back down P.84 Applications #6 Births = high in 2010 how will this affect price of babysitting in 2015 and 2025 In 2015 price of baby sitter will increase because demand will increase demand shock In 2025 price of baby sitter will decrease because demand will decrease supply shock Chapter 5 g: growth u: unemployment π: inflation E: exchange r: interest g = high u = low Exporters want a weak Canadian dollar, importers want a strong Canadian dollar Intentional bringing down of you dollar devaluation G % GDP (gross domestic product) Things that increase GDP: 1. Inequality 2. Crime, fires, treatments 3. Environment 4. Leisure Necessary vs sufficient High gdp - necessary for high quality of life but it is not sufficient for quality of life GDP is: The market value (gdp adds together many products into 1 measure of value of economic activity) of all (includes all items produced/sold, market value of housing services provided by economy’s stock of housing) final ( goods and services produced in a domestic economy over a time period Lec. 7 QUIZ DUE SUNDAY 11:59PM Lec.8 Political party info NGDP/RGDP x 100 GDP Deflator: works w/ current qtys, ALL goods Eptqt/Epoqt x 100 CPI: works w/ base year qtys, fixed set of goods Eptqo/Epoqo x 100 QUIZ DUE SUNDAY 11:00PM Lec. 9 MIDTERM Lec. 10 Median voter theorem If you want to sell products you should situate yourself close to your competition Inflation borrower gains, deflation lender gains Chapter 7 Determinants of productivity Y = f(K ,L, H, N) Y = capital/worker K = physical capital L = labor H = human capital (skilled labour) N = natural resources Wizard of oz- early 19th century economy in deflation Had to be careful about political writing Dorothy is pure pristine economy Tornado is deflation Trying to take economy back Scarecrow is farmers. No brain. Borrowed huge loans at high interest rates. Borrowers lost out. In debt. They want brains to figure out the debt. Tin man is industrialists (workers). Have no heart. working hard can’t make ends meet Lion represents William Jennings (politician). A coward. Wanted courage. Emerald city, green, federal reserve Print money to get inflation Yellow brick road = gold standard (more money requires more gold) Wizard = money printer (federal reserve guy) Clicks the heel of silver slippers Author was suggesting we use a silver standard (not gold). “wizard of oz hidden message” ted talk QUIZ DUE SUNDAY 11:00PM Lec. 11 Went over midterm Lec.12 Productivity = main determinant of living standard y=Y/L Y = f(K ,L ,H, N) y =( f(K ,L ,H, N))/L y = f(k) MPK (marginal product of capital) = y/k *law of diminishing returns graph Physical capital (K) must be supported by Income (I), in order for K to increase you need $ Only way to increase physical capital is to invest which requires savings What is the cost of saving? Reduced consumption If you can’t save use someone else’s savings: FDI: foreign direct investment direct (e.g. German company comes to Canada and builds factory) FPI: foreign portfolio investment indirect (e.g. person from Tokyo invests in Canadian stocks) * foreign investors are taking $ out of Canada Foreign investors should go where MPK is high What you need if you want capital to flow to your country what you have to provide for investors: 1. Stability/property rights 2. Educated labor force 3. Infrastructure 4. Low taxes TFSA: tax free saving account Human Capital How do we increase H in Canada? Education 1. Current output falls b/c instead of working people are in school 2. Brain drain: people leave after getting degrees to higher paying countries (incentives) 3. Diminishing returns: if everyone has a degree then it doesn’t give you an edge Gov’t should only promote k-12 that’s why we pay for post-secondary Reasons for inequality 1. Capital = mobile, labor = not mobile 2. Education 3. Compensation of CEOs is great (increased overtime) but regular employee’s wages have stayed the same Lec. 13 Video: sub-prime mortgage crisis Incentives: -interest rates were VERY low b/c banks had lots of cash - from the gov’t (cental bank) b/c bush said everyone should afford mortgage -money from china and india -payments over 40 years instead of 25 Now everyone is wanting a mortgage, bankers make commission on mortgages What goes up must come down Securitization: Asymmetric Information: one party knows more than the other 1. Principal Agent Problem (monitoring): 2. Adverse selection (screening): 3. Moral Hazard (monitoring): taking risks without having to bear the cost Occupy wall street Lec. 14 Chapter 8 Asymmetric Information: (3 problems leading to the mortgage crisis) 1. Principal Agent Problem Agent maximizes his own profits Ice cream employee steals money, eats ice cream Bankers got commission for deals they made Only the employee knows what’s going on Solution is monitoring, but it’s very expensive When they employee doesn’t care for the business and just does what’s best for them. 2. Adverse Selection The worst clients are attracted Lemon: a bad car Lemons drive peaches out of the market Fixed by screening 3. Moral Prices went up, because everyone was buying, so they got another mortgage (home) It compounds the problem The solution is monitoring Financial Markets: large companies borrow money by ordering stocks and bonds Financial intermediaries: small companies borrow through a third party e.g. banks, insurance, etc. Stocks vs Bonds Stocks- high risks, high returns (future economy looks good) Bonds- low risk, low return (future economy looks bad) shareholders get paid 1st of business goes under so bonds = more secure, you have to pay fess/commissions for every stock you buy and sell so it’s better to buy and hold P/E ratio: price to earning ration P/E = 15 typical P/E ratio in Canada 15x earning per share Greater than 15 good company or overvalued Less than 15 bad company or undervalued National accounts identity: C + I + g + NX = Y Closed economy = no NX Y-C-G=I Y-C-G+T-T=I T is for taxes net of transfers, what the gov’t taxes - what they give you back in form of transfers: 1. welfare 2. employment insurance 3. pension (Y - T - C) + (T - G) = I Spvt = private savings (Y -T - C) Spub = public savings (T - G) DI (disposable income - consumptions) National savings S = I (b/c gov’t invests its savings) T - G > 0 = surplus (B/S) T - G < 0 = deficit (B/D) T - G = 0 = balanced budget (B/B) Lec. 15 Increased savings increased invenstment increased physical capital -->increased productivity Increase living standards 1. stability 2. taxes: high taxes on investments don’t want to invest 3. debt: 4. diversification 5. Long-run vs. short-run Investment = physical Saving = financial Risky = high interest rate p.177- q.1 +7 Practice question Y = 800 t = 150 Find: G,C,S,I Spub= T - G (20) = (150) - G G = 130 Spvt= 50 Spub= 20 Spvt = Y - T - C (50) = (800) - (150) - C C = 600 I=Y-C-G I = (800) - (600) - (130) I = 70 S=I S = 70 Loanable Funds Market Model: Higher interest rates the greater the incentive for people to save Equilibrium is where saving=investment (if interest rates are too high, the bank has money, they lower interest rates, back to equilibrium – if interest rates are too low everyone wants to invest, nobody saves, the bank has no money, raises interest rate, goes back to equilibrium) people need money = investors cost of borrowing = interest rate interest creates incentive to save -> opportunity cost of consumption S increases the line will move right If savings increase the line will move right then interests rates decrease then investment increases then capital increases then y increases then w/p increases then living standard increases How can gov’t encourage saving: Incentives (e.g TFSA) Problem #1: gov’t can provide incentive to save but they can’t force you to save (efficiency) Problem #2: you have to take care of the people who don’t have anything (equity) https://edmontonjournal.com/news/politics/economists-skeptical-of-jobs-promised-bycorporate-tax-cuts Youtube: progressive income tax a tale of 3 brothers https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/1/4/18168431/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-70percent Lec.16 3 financial statements: can show earnings per share (P/E ratio) 1. Balance sheets Assets Liabilities Equity: what shareholders receive Assets – liabilities = equity 2. Income statement 3. Cash flow statement Income statements: Sales revenue – COGs (cost of goods sold) = EBIT (earnings before interest & taxes) EBIT - interest = EBT (earnings before tax) EBT - tax = NI (net income) Itc – investment tax credits Criticize of tfsaBoost investment directly – investment tax credit Can lower tax liability if they can show they used money to invest in projects, machines etc Investment curve moves with itc Problem is interest rates go up, can boost investments but later on interest rates will go up Immediate impact – t-g = public saving Spub saving curve moves left, savings go down interest rates go up; cost of borrowing goes up r goes down productivity goes down – liv standards go down 2 ways to address budget deficits Bring g down or raise taxes Can’t have bother Raise taxes or lower expenditures 3 ways to fix – reduce liabilities Taxes have to go up Borrow more – issue bonds Print more money What does alberta have in its heritage trust fund? 18billion Convert resource wealth into financial wealth Norway 1.1 trillion Shouldn’t compare with Norway – 3 reasons 1 – crude oil – Norway sweet oil 2 – low tax alberta Norway very high taxes 3- cost of living – population dense country, condensed and huddled up, economies of scale on larger scale, Story of Canada pg. 146 1966 – 1973: – 1.8% productivity 1974-1982: 0.5% productivity 1983-1988: 1.7% 1989-1995: 0.9% 1996-2000: 2.1% 2001-2014: 0.6% Late 1800: Canadian pacific railroad (CPR), sask = breadbasket of the world, boom in food prices, Europeans came to farm, boom ends 1914: WWI- USA = recession, export 60% to them, our exports go down, G (gov’t expen.) goes up spent $ on war 1918: War ends, things not bad, some debt, house market = good 1929: great stock market crashed solution: spend a lot, high unemployment (30%), dirty thirties 1930: great depression – 25% employment 1939: ww2 economy boosted again lowest ever unemployment (2%) 1945: war ended – boomers, women labor force increase, inventions were stopped before war re-entered market – household appliances 1973 oil prices went up – recession & inflation Stagnation & inflation – stagflation Inequality 1980s: poverty, many recessions, debt 1996 – IT revolution, budget surplus, lots of $ increased gov’t expenditures, lowered taxes, paid of lots of debt 2001: dot com 2007: recession, sub-prime mortgage crisis 2011: productivity = low, boomers = retiring bring more ppl to Canada and raise taxes Lec. 17 Guest speaker Lec. 18 Midterm: chapters 6,7,8 Articles we went over Wizard of oz story Tax video – tale of three brothers – tax potatoes Sub-prime mortgage story Corporate tax cuts article Adam smith Price over earnings ratio Tip from friend stockbroker Stocks vs bonds over valued under valued Lec. 19 Midterm Lec. 20 Lec. 21 (nick’s notes) 3 functions of money: 1. Medium of exchange: money has value b/c there is belief in its worth, enforced vis gov’t) 2. Store of value: money is a store of value, same worth tomorrow as today good store in the short-run but not good in the long-run (inflation) 3. Unit of account: how much of this money for that item n*(n-1)/2 Lec. 22 FMO (foreign market operation): foreign currency Problem + applications back of chp. 10 p.229 #13 a. b. Chapter 11: Inflation is a monetary phenomenon 6 costs of inflation: 1. shoe leather costs (transaction costs) 2. Menu costs (cost of re-printing menus) can be avoided with digital menu but still must deal with disgruntled customers (b/c of cost increase) 3. Inconvenience costs 4. Misallocation of resources 5. Redistribution of income: Inflation = lenders lose in high inflation 6. Inflation induced tax distortions Liquidity Preference Theory: demand (Md) = f(P,r,Y,cc,ATM) (QTM) Quantity Theory of Money: MV = PY M: money supply V: velocity P: prices Y: GDP (real) GM + GV = π + g GM: growth in $ supply GV: growth in velocity π: growth in prices g = growth V is constant then gv = 0 then gm = π + g Short run – one fixed (price) gm = g Long run – y is fixes (output) gm = π Problems applications chp. 11 Question #1: a. RGDP x price = NGDP (500) X price = 1000 price = 2 MV = PY (50)(V) = (2)(500) V = 20 b. gm = π + g π = -5% b. 5% = 0 + 5% c. 15% = 10 + 5% lec. 23 Chapter 12 NX= f (P, e, Y, transp cost, free trade agents) E = for corr/ 1 CAD NX = NCO M = K/O - K/I 1. 100$ = 8000 YEN 2. 100$ = TOKYO SE 3. 100$ - 8000 YEN = 0 China US NX > 0 NCO > 0 S>I Y > EXP NX < 0 NCO < 0 S<I Y < EXP China income is greater than expenditure E = Ep/ (pf) See McChicken Problem in notes PPP (Purchasing Power Parity) your purchasing power is similar across both countries 1/P = e/pf e = pf/p Entrepreneur: buy @ low price sell @ high price (e.g. ppl selling louis bags from France in japan b/c they are cheaper in France) SO buy McChicken in India sell it in Canada BUT: 1. transaction costs (transportation cost, taxes) more than you will profit 2. imperfect substitutes 3. Doesn’t work for services Exchange rates Germany Italy 1970 3.49 600 2001 1.41 1397 pf decrease pf increase Germany’s money supply went down, Italy increased money supply. Why? b/c German’s have fiscal discipline IRP (interest rate parity) Small open economy: Interest rate Canada (r) = interest rate (world market) IRP doesn’t work: 1. taxes 2. debt 3. constitutional crisis Chapter 13