COVER STORY
Are We Prepared for the Next
PANDEMIC?
Wearing masks at a train station
in Wuhan, China, to ward off infection
L
ast fall, a group created
are increasing because we have
RUSSIA
by the World Health
bigger populations and they’re
KAZAKHSTAN
Organization and the World
moving around faster.”
NORTH
MONGOLIA
KYRGYZSTAN
KOREA JAPAN
Bank issued a report about
Those higher risks became
Beijing
SOUTH
whether governments are
painfully
obvious in January with
KOREA
Yellow
ready to cope with a new global
the emergence of a new highly
Sea
Shanghai
pandemic. The blunt conclusion
contagious coronavirus in Wuhan,
East
China
Wuhan
Sea
issued in the first paragraph of that
China. That virus infected more
TAIWAN
report wasn’t reassuring: “The
than 60,000 people and killed
NEPAL
Hong
BHUTAN
world is not prepared.”
more than 1,300 in the first two
Kong
South PHILIPPINES
INDIA
There’s a very real threat of
months. It spread to dozens
China
MYANMAR
Sea
a rapidly spreading contagious
of countries. In response, the
BANGLADESH (BURMA)
VIETNAM
disease killing 50 million to 80
Chinese government locked down
THAILAND
0 200 MI
CAMBODIA
million people and wiping out
more than 57 million people to
0 400 KM
nearly 5 percent of the global
stop the spread of the virus.
ASIA
economy, according to the report.
The Wuhan outbreak likely originated from wildlife traded
Area of
“The world has become much
at a seafood market. The number of coronavirus deaths
detail
higher risk, and we need to change
initially seemed small compared to the more than 10,000
our thinking accordingly,” says Stephen
deaths from seasonal flu this winter in the U.S. alone. Still,
Morrison, director of the Global Health
it had broad ripple effects. The World Health Organization
Policy Center at the Center for Strategic and International
declared a global emergency. And many international
Studies in Washington, D.C. “The velocity of these outbreaks
airlines suspended service to China. Foreign countries,
6
CHINA
UPFRONT • UPFRONTMAGAZINE.COM
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©MERLIN D. TUTTLE/SCIENCE SOURCE (BAT); NATIONAL ARCHIVES (BROOKLINE)
The rise of the coronavirus from China raises tough questions
about the world’s readiness for a global outbreak BY PATRICIA SMITH
WATCH A VIDEO about the coronavirus
at UPFRONTMAGAZINE.COM
Pandemics,” below). It was a very deadly strain
of influenza that turned the skin blue and filled
the victim’s lungs with a bloody froth. It could
kill within hours. Unlike most flu strains, the 1918
virus killed many otherwise healthy young adults.
There’s a wide variety of contagious threats
in the world today. That’s why the emergence
of a virus similar to the 1918 flu continues to
worry many scientists. Part of what enabled that
Medical staff in protective gear
outbreak to have such a broad impact was the
bring a patient to the hospital in Wuhan.
huge number of people who were moving around
including the U.S., sent chartered planes to rescue their
the globe in the aftermath of World War I. They spread the
citizens stuck in the quarantine zone. Many businesses shut
virus wherever they went. Just imagine, experts say, how
down temporarily. And foreign companies that depend on
much faster a lethal virus could move in today’s world.
materials from China had their supply chains interrupted.
“Two hundred years ago, if I wanted to go to the other
In Wuhan, hospitals couldn’t handle the thousands of
side of the world, I had to spend months on a boat,” says
people flooding into emergency rooms. In their panic,
Arthur Reingold, an expert in infectious disease at the
many Chinese expressed their fears and frustration with
University of California, Berkeley. “Today I can be virtually
the government on social media. They posted videos
anywhere in the world in 36 hours on a plane.”
showing chaos at local hospitals. This type of social media
Despite the increased risks, the world has many
activity is rare under China’s authoritarian rule.
advantages it didn’t have in 1918. Vaccines, antibiotics,
“It is very scary,” says Cai Pei of Wuhan, whose wife was
modern equipment for diagnosing illness, and a wide
sick with a cough and fever. She could have the coronavirus
range of effective treatments now exist. There are also
but was turned away from a hospital. “If it’s real, we have
experienced public health organizations to direct efforts.
a child and elderly parents at home. What if we all get sick?”
“We’ve got a lot of tools that are constantly evolving,
There was a run on surgical masks as fear grew of the virus
constantly improving,” Reingold says.
spreading. These masks were in demand in China
In the meantime, experts say the best
and around the world, including in the U.S.
step countries can take is invest in public health
Health officials say that masks are not always
systems. Doing so would help them be better
effective in preventing people from being infected.
prepared when the next destructive virus
Bats are thought
But in a state of alarm, people do what they can.
comes along.
to be the origin
of the Wuhan
“We know with certainty that these types
coronavirus. Many
A Connected World
of outbreaks will continue to happen,” Reingold
new viruses jump
The most famous global pandemic is probably the
says. “So we need to be prepared.” •
from animals
Spanish flu. It killed some 50 million people as it
to people.
With reporting by Sui-Lee Wee of The New York Times.
swept around the world in 1918 (see “Deadliest
DEADLIEST PANDEMICS
1. The Black Death
3. HIV/AIDS
An outbreak of bubonic
plague—a bacterial
infection that’s deadly if
not treated—devastates
Europe, Africa, and Asia.
This virus, which strikes
the immune system, can be
transmitted only through
bodily fluids. It can be
effectively prevented and
treated but not cured.
75-100 million dead
(1346-53)
2. Spanish Flu
50 million dead (1918)
A powerful influenza
virus spreads across
the globe amid the
chaos of World War I.
32 million dead
(1980s to present)
4. Plague of Justinian
25 million dead (541-42 a.d.)
An outbreak of bubonic
plague is believed to have
killed half the population
of Europe at the time.
5. Antonine Plague
5 million dead (165 a.d.)
The cause of this
outbreak across the
Roman Empire is
unknown but thought
to be either measles
or smallpox.
6. Asian Flu
2 million dead (1957-58)
This influenza outbreak
began in China and
spread to Singapore,
Hong Kong, and the U.S.
An emergency hospital
for flu patients, Brookline,
Massachusetts, 1918
M A R C H 9, 2 0 2 0
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