Working Group
on
Telecom Sector
th
12 Five Year Plan
July 18, 2011
Contents
Indian telecom scenario
Growth potential
Investment estimates
2
Indian Telecom Scenario
• Fastest growing Sector with average monthly addition of
16-18 million subscribers
• Current subscriber base of over 875 million and active
subscribers of about 588 million
• Second largest mobile network with over 840 million
wireless subscribers
• Addition of over 225 million connections last year
• Roll out of services in more than 8000 towns and cities
and over 500,000 villages
• 12-14 mobile operators in most of the circles
3
Growth
Total telephones (million)
900
846,32
800
700
621,28
600
500
429,73
400
300,49
300
200
205,87
142,09
100
0
03/2006
03/2007
03/2008
03/2009
03/2010
03/2011
Source: DoT, TRAI
4
Wireless led Growth
March 2007
March 2011
Total telephones 205.87 million
Total telephones 846.32 million
4,10%
19,80%
80,19%
95,90%
Wireless
Wireline
Wireless
Wireline
5
Source: DoT, TRAI
Teledensity Growth
180,00
Number of telephones per 100 population
160,00
157,32
140,00
122,00
120,00
100,00
88,84
80,00
70,89
66,39
60,00
53,46
48,10
40,00
38,28
36,98
26,22
20,00
18,22
12,74
0,00
2,34
03/2006
5,89
03/2007
33,79
24,56
15,11
9,46
03/2008
03/2009
03/2010
03/2011
Source:
DoT, TRAI
6
Share of private network (%)
90,00
85,11
82,96
80,00
79,16
73,53
70,00
65,32
60,00
57,01
50,00
40,00
03/2006
03/2007
03/2008
03/2009
03/2010
03/2011
Source: DoT, TRAI
7
Broadband growth
Broadband subscribers (million)
11,87
12,00
10,00
8,80
8,00
6,20
6,00
3,80
4,00
2,30
2,00
1,30
0,00
03/2006
03/2007
03/2008
03/2009
03/2010
03/2011
Source: DoT, TRAI
8
Growth Potential
Network Expansion
• 1.1 billion subscribers by 2015
Broadband
• TRAI -National Broadband Plan 160 Million by 2014
– Investment of Rs. 60,000 crore
• 2,50,000 villages Panchayats within 3 years
• Broadband coverage for all secondary and higher secondary
schools, Village Panchayats and all public health care
centers.
• Leveraging USO funds for faster expansion of broadband
• Universal Access through support for shared infrastructure
for rural cellular mobile
• Optical fibre connectivity for broadband upto Village
Panchayats
9
Investment estimates
10
Investment in Telecom Sector
11th Five Year Plan
Year
Investment
(Source:
TRAI)
11 Plan
Centre
11 Plan
Private
37900
11 Five Year
Plan
(Planning
Commission)
31900
2007-08
7894
24007
2008-09
59200
52295
11048
41248
2009-10
77700
64206
13186
51019
2010-11
103900*
84339
13988
70351
2011-12
120000*
103900
15387
97007
Total
398700
345134
61503
283631
(Rs crore)
11
*Projected
Areas of Investment in 12th Plan
• Investment required in
– Network expansion- Triple Play
• Especially in rural and remote areas
– Network upgrades
• Rapid Advancements in Technology/ customer demand cycles
• 3G expected to account for 20% of subscriber base by 2015
• NGN & IPV6
– Broadband expansion (BWA)
– National Optical Fibre Network (NOFN)
– Convergence of Technology
– Value Added Services
– Manufacturing and R&D
12
Investment Assumptions
Existing
• Telephone subscribers more than 875 million
• Active subscribers about 588 million
• Broadband subscribers more than 12 million
Expected by March 2017 (end of 12th V Year Plan)
• Telephone subscribers- 1200 million
– 3G/4G subscribers about 25% i.e. 300 million
•
•
•
•
Broadband subscribers- 175 million
e-Governance initiative to boost demand
Telecom tower, VAS
Low ARPU/Tariff
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Estimated Sectoral Investment in 12th FYP
• Core telecom equipment - Rs. 1,35,000 crore +
1,50,000 Crore
– Investment in 2G network
2G -Capacity addition
- 500 million
500 million @Rs. 2700/- per line (average)
=Rs. 1,35,000 crore
– Investment in 3G/4G, Wimax, LTE etc capacity- 500 million
500 million @Rs. 3000/- per line= Rs. 1,50,000 crore
Total Investment in Core telecom equipments =
Rs. 2,85,000 crore
14
Estimated Sectoral Investment in 12th FYP
• Transmission Network (SDH, Microwave Radio,
Routers)
Rs. 40,000 crore (Approx. 14%)
• Access Network
(Investment in tower, battery, power plant,
Green Telecom)
Rs. 1,00,000 crore
Total Investment in Access and Transmission
Network = Rs. 1,40,000 crore
15
Estimated Sectoral Investment in 12th FYP
• Broadband Roll-outRs. 75,000 crore
• Customer premises equipment (USB Dongles,
modem etc) Rs 50,000 crore
• Spectrum charges (on renewal/ through
auction) Rs 1,00,000 crore
Total Investment =2,25,000 crore
Total Investment in Telecom Infrastructure
Rs. 2,85,000+1,40,000+2,25,000= Rs. 6,50,000
16