Uploaded by Alison Gonscak

Introduction Time Series

advertisement
What is Time Series?
Data which is graphed over time
or
or
or
or
Our aim is to try to predict the future
At Achieved and Merit

We look at data which has a cycle

Pie sales over many weeks
 Will
have a weekly pattern
 And probably a seasonal pattern during the year

Umbrella sales over many quarter years
 Will
have traditional high and low seasons
n9
Ap 5
r-9
Ju 5
l-9
O 5
ct
-9
Ja 5
n9
Ap 6
r-9
Ju 6
l-9
O 6
ct
-9
Ja 6
n9
Ap 7
r-9
Ju 7
l-9
O 7
ct
-9
Ja 7
n9
Ap 8
r-9
Ju 8
l-9
O 8
ct
-9
Ja 8
n9
Ap 9
r-9
Ju 9
l-9
O 9
ct
-9
Ja 9
n0
Ap 0
r-0
Ju 0
l-0
O 0
ct
-0
Ja 0
n0
Ap 1
r-0
Ju 1
l-0
O 1
ct
-0
Ja 1
n0
Ap 2
r-0
Ju 2
l-0
O 2
ct
-0
Ja 2
n0
Ap 3
r-0
Ju 3
l-0
O 3
ct
-0
3
Ja
People
We chart the data
Napier Overseas Tourists
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
Season number
n9
Ap 5
r-9
Ju 5
l-9
O 5
ct
-9
Ja 5
n9
Ap 6
r-9
Ju 6
l-9
O 6
ct
-9
Ja 6
n9
Ap 7
r-9
Ju 7
l-9
O 7
ct
-9
Ja 7
n9
Ap 8
r-9
Ju 8
l-9
O 8
ct
-9
Ja 8
n9
Ap 9
r-9
Ju 9
l-9
O 9
ct
-9
Ja 9
n0
Ap 0
r-0
Ju 0
l-0
O 0
ct
-0
Ja 0
n0
Ap 1
r-0
Ju 1
l-0
O 1
ct
-0
Ja 1
n0
Ap 2
r-0
Ju 2
l-0
O 2
ct
-0
Ja 2
n0
Ap 3
r-0
Ju 3
l-0
O 3
ct
-0
3
Ja
People
Use EXCEL to find a trend line
Napier Overseas Tourists
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
Season number
n9
Ap 5
r-9
Ju 5
l-9
O 5
ct
-9
Ja 5
n9
Ap 6
r-9
Ju 6
l-9
O 6
ct
-9
Ja 6
n9
Ap 7
r-9
Ju 7
l-9
O 7
ct
-9
Ja 7
n9
Ap 8
r-9
Ju 8
l-9
O 8
ct
-9
Ja 8
n9
Ap 9
r-9
Ju 9
l-9
O 9
ct
-9
Ja 9
n0
Ap 0
r-0
Ju 0
l-0
O 0
ct
-0
Ja 0
n0
Ap 1
r-0
Ju 1
l-0
O 1
ct
-0
Ja 1
n0
Ap 2
r-0
Ju 2
l-0
O 2
ct
-0
Ja 2
n0
Ap 3
r-0
Ju 3
l-0
O 3
ct
-0
3
Ja
People
Get a formula for the trend
then try to predict the future
Napier Overseas Tourists
10000
January 2004
Predict about 8000 tourists
8000
6000
4000
2000
Season number
Download