What is Time Series? Data which is graphed over time or or or or Our aim is to try to predict the future At Achieved and Merit We look at data which has a cycle Pie sales over many weeks Will have a weekly pattern And probably a seasonal pattern during the year Umbrella sales over many quarter years Will have traditional high and low seasons n9 Ap 5 r-9 Ju 5 l-9 O 5 ct -9 Ja 5 n9 Ap 6 r-9 Ju 6 l-9 O 6 ct -9 Ja 6 n9 Ap 7 r-9 Ju 7 l-9 O 7 ct -9 Ja 7 n9 Ap 8 r-9 Ju 8 l-9 O 8 ct -9 Ja 8 n9 Ap 9 r-9 Ju 9 l-9 O 9 ct -9 Ja 9 n0 Ap 0 r-0 Ju 0 l-0 O 0 ct -0 Ja 0 n0 Ap 1 r-0 Ju 1 l-0 O 1 ct -0 Ja 1 n0 Ap 2 r-0 Ju 2 l-0 O 2 ct -0 Ja 2 n0 Ap 3 r-0 Ju 3 l-0 O 3 ct -0 3 Ja People We chart the data Napier Overseas Tourists 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 Season number n9 Ap 5 r-9 Ju 5 l-9 O 5 ct -9 Ja 5 n9 Ap 6 r-9 Ju 6 l-9 O 6 ct -9 Ja 6 n9 Ap 7 r-9 Ju 7 l-9 O 7 ct -9 Ja 7 n9 Ap 8 r-9 Ju 8 l-9 O 8 ct -9 Ja 8 n9 Ap 9 r-9 Ju 9 l-9 O 9 ct -9 Ja 9 n0 Ap 0 r-0 Ju 0 l-0 O 0 ct -0 Ja 0 n0 Ap 1 r-0 Ju 1 l-0 O 1 ct -0 Ja 1 n0 Ap 2 r-0 Ju 2 l-0 O 2 ct -0 Ja 2 n0 Ap 3 r-0 Ju 3 l-0 O 3 ct -0 3 Ja People Use EXCEL to find a trend line Napier Overseas Tourists 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 Season number n9 Ap 5 r-9 Ju 5 l-9 O 5 ct -9 Ja 5 n9 Ap 6 r-9 Ju 6 l-9 O 6 ct -9 Ja 6 n9 Ap 7 r-9 Ju 7 l-9 O 7 ct -9 Ja 7 n9 Ap 8 r-9 Ju 8 l-9 O 8 ct -9 Ja 8 n9 Ap 9 r-9 Ju 9 l-9 O 9 ct -9 Ja 9 n0 Ap 0 r-0 Ju 0 l-0 O 0 ct -0 Ja 0 n0 Ap 1 r-0 Ju 1 l-0 O 1 ct -0 Ja 1 n0 Ap 2 r-0 Ju 2 l-0 O 2 ct -0 Ja 2 n0 Ap 3 r-0 Ju 3 l-0 O 3 ct -0 3 Ja People Get a formula for the trend then try to predict the future Napier Overseas Tourists 10000 January 2004 Predict about 8000 tourists 8000 6000 4000 2000 Season number