Alina Kuznetsova
“Methods of analysis and evaluation of non-observed economy”
The shadow sector plays an important role in the economic life of any territory,
because its presence is associated with a number of negative consequences that
manifest themselves in various socio-economic forms. For example, lack of taxes
and fees in the budget system, distortion of economic and statistical indicators,
difficulties in accessing illegal activities to official sources of financing, and
others. Therefore, it is necessary to combat this negative phenomenon in order to
reduce its activity. But how to cope with it if there is no complete information?
The relevance of the research topic is due to the high socio-economic significance
of the problem of developing a methodology for statistical evaluation of the nonobserved economy, and insufficient knowledge of several aspects of this
economic category.
One of the threats to the economic security of the country remains the expanding
criminalization of economic relations, the emergence of trends in the
subordination of the state’s economic policy to the specific economic interests of
criminal structures.
The criminal accumulation of capital is increasing, carrying out the redistribution
of national income for personal purposes. The shadow component of economic
relations began to create a real threat.
As a positive moment, it can be noted that the state, in its policy, began to conduct
economic monitoring of the departure of entrepreneurial activity into the shadow
sphere.
The basis of the shadow economy is a combination of factors that make up the
triangle of morality, namely, “the opportunity to commit a crime — a sense of
irresponsibility — a compelling motive.”
The object of the study is the non-observed economy. The subject of research is
the methods of its measurement.
The aim of the work is to determine the prerequisites, factors, conceptual features
of the development of shadow economic activity in concrete historical periods
and in certain areas of economic activity in Russia, identifying areas for reducing
its level in modern Russia.
To achieve this goal, it is necessary to solve the following tasks such as determine
the boundaries of the non-observed economy in the framework of this work,
consider methods for measuring it, calculate methods based on statistical data for
Russia, analyze the problems of applying methods in the Russian Federation,
develop a mixed method for estimating the non-observed economy.
The main research methods are information gathering, its analysis, using various
literature, as well as its own statements and conclusions.
The study of the economic essence of the shadow economy devoted a lot of work,
both domestic and foreign authors. Among foreign authors a significant
contribution to the development of various aspects of the shadow economy was
made by J. Cornai, E. Soto, O. Williamson, and others. In the domestic literature,
scientists - researchers such as I. Klimkin, T. Koryagina, V. Kulikov, O. Osipenko
- have dealt with the problems of the shadow economy.
Igor Rogov believed that “the shadow economy is the production, distribution,
exchange and consumption of commodity-material assets and services
uncontrolled by the state, and includes all types of economic activity that are not
accounted for by the relevant regulatory documents and business rules”.1
This work contains a theoretical and practical part. The theoretical part presents
various classifications of methods for estimating non-observed economies.
Several types of activities that are unobservable but require evaluation are also
considered. These are shadow production, illegal production, activities in the
informal sector and production inside households. In the second part, the shares
of the shadow sector, as well as its volume, were calculated using various
methods. Conclusions were made regarding the applicability of the methods to
Russia. It was also important to compile a mixed model based on the Italian
method and the soft modeling method, in which many problems of these models
were corrected separately.
At present, the non-observed economy acts as a threat to the economic security
of the state, so its calculation is currently an important task. With the help of this
data, it is possible not only to calculate the indicators important for analyzing the
situation in the economy, but also to develop a system to combat the non-observed
economy.
In the course of the work, boundaries were established within which the nonobserved economy was considered. Unfortunately, none of the above methods for
measuring economic activity in the shadow and informal sectors of the economy
could not give a full description of the indicators of non-observed economic
activity. To obtain the most complete information about shadow activity, it is
necessary to study secondary sources of information (press materials, court
proceedings, etc.), which will allow to evaluate certain aspects of shadow activity.
Hamphrey S. The Unmakihg of Soviet Life, Everyday Economies after Socialism. Uthaca&London: Cornell
University Press, 2001, p.23.
1
The most objective assessment of the shadow economy is possible only with the
integrated use of various methods.
The statisticians have a lot of work to create a unified methodology that takes into
account all the main methods of accounting for the informal sector, in order to
give a real estimate of GDP and other macroeconomic indicators. Such work
requires high qualifications, knowledge and experience.