Introduction
 This meeting was part of the process dating back to 1992 Earth summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. – When the
countries initially joined the international treaty UNFCCC
 Paris Agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
 International treaty
 Adopted: 12 December 2015
 Opened for signature: 22 April 2016
 Entered into force: 04 November 2016
 Pakistan ratified on 10 Nov 2016; India = 2 October 2016
 Signed by 195 countries, ratified by 186 countries (Jan 2019)
 Aimed to reduced emission of GHGs that contribute to GW
 To improve and replace KYOTO protocol adopted in 1997
o In 2005, the Kyoto Protocol became a legally binding treaty.
o Legally bound developed countries to emission reduction targets
o It ends in 2020, and COP21 is designed to take its place.
o China, a developing country, was not bound by the Kyoto Protocol
o Many U.S. government officials used this fact to justify U.S. nonparticipation.
o Ineffective because the world’s two top carbon dioxide-emitting countries, China and the United States,
chose not to participate.
o 2011: COP17 in South Africa, Delegates agreed to create a new, comprehensive, legally binding climate
treaty by 2015 that would require all countries—including major carbon emitters not abiding by the Kyoto
Protocol—to limit and reduce their emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases.
o 2012: COP18 in Doha, delegates agreed to extend the Kyoto Protocol until 2020.
Objectives
 To control greenhouse gas emissions
o To limit greenhouse gas emissions to levels that would prevent global temperatures from increasing more
than 2 °C (3.6 °F) above the temperature benchmark set before the beginning of the Industrial Revolution.
o Pursue efforts to limit the rise by 1.5 degree celsius
o Parties should reach global peaking of greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible; to undertake rapid
reductions thereafter in accordance with the best available science.
 The agreement also recognized the need of LDCs to improve their economies and reduce poverty, which made
immediate reductions in greenhouse gas emissions difficult.
 The PA specified no funding targets
o but noted that developed countries should provide financial resources to help LDCs “in continuation of their
existing obligations under the Convention
o Such as the COP16 commitment of $100 billion per year from developed countries by 2020.
o That funding was to support both mitigation and adaptation efforts.
 Loss and damage
o Averting, minimizing and addressing the loss and damage caused by climate change
INDC – Intended Nationally Determined Contributions
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The UN tasked countries to submit plans detailing how they intended to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (INDCs)
Countries submitted their plans to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions by 2025 or 2030.
The U.S. announced in 2014 its intention to reduce its emissions 26–28 percent below 2005 levels by 2025.
Chinese officials also endeavoured to lower carbon dioxide emissions per unit of gross domestic product (GDP) by
60–65 percent from the 2005 level.
 India, 3rd largest emitter of GHGs, sought to derive about 40 percent of its electric power from renewable energy
sources rather than from fossil fuels by 2030
 EU: to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by at least 40% by 2030 compared to 1990.
 It was estimated that at least $2.5 trillion would be needed to accomplish climate-change actions through 2030.
 India would achieve that goal with the help of
o Technology transfer (the movement of skills and equipment from more-developed countries to lessdeveloped countries [LDCs])
o International finance – including assistance from the Green Climate Fund
 Each party was asked to update its INDC every five years
Governments agreed to
o Come together every 5 years to set more ambitious targets as required by science;
o Report to each other and the public on how well they are doing to implement their targets;
o Adaptation:
o Strengthen ability to deal with the impacts climate change
o Provide support for adaptation to developing countries
After Ratification
o By early 2017: the only sovereign countries that had not signed were Nicaragua and Syria.
o US emissions increased by 3.4% in 2018
o The Global Carbon Project reported that carbon emissions worldwide, which were largely flat from 2014 to 2016,
had increased by 1.6 percent and by 2.7 percent in 2017 and 2018, respectively.
Year
2017
2018
Increase in global CO2
emissions
1.6%
2.7%
Withdrawal
o The United States announced in June 2017 that it intended to withdraw from the Paris Agreement.
o However, once a party has joined the agreement, they cannot begin the process of withdrawal for three years.
o There is no financial penalty for leaving, but with Syria's announcement it will leave the US as the only nation not
party to the agreement.
So what is legally binding?
1. Measurement of actual performance against targets
2. Reporting of performance and targets
Accomplishments
o First time ever virtually all nations committed to reducing their CO2 emissions
o NDC are based on national interests, concurrent with priorities of nations and consistent with their sustainable
national development plans
o Nations converged to a common path
o Getting every country to commit some kind of carbon emission reduction represents huge progress
o Developed nations shall contribute significant amounts of money to help least developed countries to develop
cleaner energy/ clean power systems and reduce deforestation
o Though current targets are not sufficient to meet the goal of well below 2dc, targets set every 5 years are
expected to be more and more ambitious
Problems
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No agreement is perfect
If countries don’t meet their targets, nothing happens, there are no penalties
The agreement is not legally binding
No rigid guidelines for countries to meet their pledges
BRIC nations – are not too willing to sacrifice their economic growth for planetary good
Pledges currently made are nowhere near the the 2 dc goal
US withdrawal - introduction
 The U.S. President Donald Trump announced on 1 June, 2017, that the U.S. would withdraw from the Paris
Agreement and immediately cease implementing the agreement
o Including implementing NDCs and
o financial contributions
 This decision has drawn strong criticism both at home and abroad
US withdrawal – reasons
o On his 2016 presidential campaign trail, Donald Trump talked skeptically about or even denied climate change
o DT vowed to pull out of PA, 2015 once he was elected
o Following his win in the election, Trump softened his position, stating that he had “an open mind” about climate
change. Trump eventually chose to back out of the agreement.
o The Trump Administration is closely tied to the fossil fuel industry, and interest groups are a defining feature of
American politics
o The fossil fuel industries hold powerful political clout over the Trump Administration and the Republican Party
o It has been reported that Trump himself, Vice President Pence and EPA Administrator Pruitt are all personally
closely associated with the petrochemical mogul Koch Industries. Withdrawal from PA, benefits energy companies
including Koch industries
o EPA Administrator Pruitt, who led the legal fight against former President Obama's Clean Power Plan, repeatedly
denied anthropogenic causes of global warming.
o On the contrary, Trump believes that the Paris Agreement undermines U.S. competitive edge and impairs both
employment and traditional energy industries
o Politically, Obama believes that the Paris Agreement strengthens the U.S. leadership in international affairs,
whereas Trump believes that the agreement weakens the U.S. sovereignty
o Trump holds personal acrimony against Obama and relishes destroying Obama's political legacy; during the 2016
Presidential campaign, Trump and Obama openly attacked each other with a high degree of animosity. Trump
decided to roll back most of Obama’s policies
US withdrawal impacts
o The withdrawal undermines the universality of the Paris Agreement
o PA s primarily distinguished from the Kyoto Protocol by the universal participation of both developed and
developing countries. Universality brings legitimacy which enhances the effectiveness of climate
governance.
o US withdrawal diminished the universality of PA
o The absence of US from both KYOTO and PA may point to a similar direction for PA as of KYOTO
o Impairs states' confidence in climate cooperation
o Aggravates leadership deficit
o The concerted leadership of US, EU and China was essential to the making of PA
o The bottom up approach in PA relies on strong leadership that leads by example
o With the EU mired in Brexit negotiations and other crises, implementing the PA will be frustrated in the
absence of US leadership
o Sets a bad precedent for international climate cooperation
o The US will essentially be free riding on other countries’ mitigation efforts if it fails to achieve NDC
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o Although most countries reaffirmed their commitment to the Paris Agreement after Trump's
announcement, it will not be surprising to see changes in these countries' climate politics.
Reduces other countries emissions’ space
Leaves a large gap in the climate aid that the developed countries have promised to developing countries
o Refusal to contribute to climate aid makes it more difficult for developing countries to mitigate and adapt to
climate change.
o Financing is essential to implementing the Paris Agreement, and under the principle of common but
differentiated responsibility, developed countries are obligated to provide climate financing to developing
countries.
o The U.S. has been the top donor to the Global Environmental Facility, contributing around 21% of its total
shares
o The Trump Administration decided to terminate the donation to the Green Climate Fund, which will reduce
America's share to 6.4%.
o The Green Climate Fund plays an essential leveraging role in global climate financing (UNFCCC, 2017)
Cutting climate research funding will compromise the quality of future IPCC reports
o Between 2010 and 2016, U.S. scientists contributed to 2247 out of 4089 (54.95%) articles on climate change
published in the seven leading scientific journals, an unparalleled lead that demonstrated the weight of the
U.S. in climate science
It creates opportunities for China and the European Union (EU) to exert their leadership
The compliance prospects of PA, 2015 are rendered bleak
Other countries could follow the lead of US to postpone their mitigation efforts
How does US withdrawal impact China?
o GW will increase, putting China under greater ecological vulnerability and climate risks
o China is one of those countries’ most vulnerable to climate change
o It will make the consequences of global warming more disastrous
o Withdrawal will diminish China's emission space and raise China's mitigation costs.
o Xi and Obama made serious headway in prioritizing climate change as the highlight of their bilateral agenda and
to a certain extent, climate cooperation enhances mutual trust between the two.
o China will reinforce its existing dominance in the clean energy sector
o US may fall further behind China in the race to develop renewable energy if it retreats on climate efforts
How should China respond?
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America's withdrawal from the Paris Agreement is also both a challenge and an opportunity for China.
If China rises to the challenge, China will enhance its soft power and play a greater role in global governance
If not, China may lose a precious window of opportunity or even be hurt both economically and strategically.
Internationally, China should respond to the leadership call
o Vacuum left by US withdrawal
o Leadership, the most pressing challenge facing global climate governance today.
o China is neither well positioned to single-handedly fill the leadership vacuum left by the U.S. nor capable of
doing so. Instead it should work towards developing Climate 5 (C5) partnership that comprises China, the
EU, India, Brazil, and South Africa.
o The EU is entangled in multiple crises of refugees, debt, finance, terrorism, and the Brexit.
o China, despite being a rising power, is still a developing country that lacks experience in agenda setting,
global governance, and climate research
o India, with its current emissions and enormous potential in future emissions, will have an important say over
future climate efforts.
o China may keep the U.S. engaged in three ways.
o Focus more on energy efficiency and energy security and less on climate change.
o Push sino-US cooperation on nuclear energy, natural gas and clean coal.
o Promote sino-US cooperation on sub-national levels (provinces, states and cities)
Phrases
The Paris Agreement is a milestone in the history of climate governance. We must ensure this endeavor is not derailed.