Benoît Cœuré
Member of the Executive Board of
the European Central Bank
The local impact of the ECB’s
monetary policy
Les Champs du Possible
Châteaudun, 4 October 2018
Euro
area economy looking back to five years of uninterrupted growth
Rubric
GDP and employment
Inflation and wage growth
(2007 = 100)
(annual percentage changes)
GDP
HICP
Employment
Compensation per employee
5
110
108
4
106
3
104
2
102
100
1
98
0
96
94
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
-1
2007
2017
Sources: Eurostat, ECB calculations.
Latest observation: 2018Q2.
2018-10-04 – Châteaudun
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
Sources: Eurostat, ECB calculations.
Latest observation: 2018Q2 (compensation), 2018Q3 (inflation).
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The
ECB took firm action against financial fragmentation
Rubric
Firm access to bank loans: 2014
Firm access to bank loans: 2018
(net percentage of responding SMEs)
(net percentage of responding SMEs)
Sources: EC, ECB, ECB calculations.
Notes: Survey on the access to finance of enterprises (SAFE), Question 9: “Would you say
that the availability of bank loans has improved, remained unchanged or deteriorated for
your enterprise over the past six months?” April-September 2014.
2018-10-04 – Châteaudun
Sources: EC, ECB, ECB calculations.
Notes: Survey on the access to finance of enterprises (SAFE), Question 9: “Would you say
that the availability of bank loans has improved, remained unchanged or deteriorated for your
enterprise over the past six months?” October 2017-March 2018.
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Policy
Rubricmeasures were successful in supporting credit provision to firms
Cost of borrowing for NFCs
Loans to NFCs
(percentages per annum)
(annual percentage changes)
DE
ES
FR
IT
DE
EA
7
40
6
30
5
ES
FR
IT
EA
20
4
10
3
0
2
-10
1
0
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
-20
2004
2018
Source: ECB.
Notes: The indicator for the cost of borrowing is calculated by aggregating short- and
long- term rates using 24-months moving average of new business volumes.
Latest observation: July 2018.
2018-10-04 – Châteaudun
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
Source: ECB.
Notes: Adjusted loans (i.e. adjusted for sales, securitisation and cash pooling
activities). Data for Spain from Jan. 2004 to Dec. 2009 are non-seasonally adjusted.
Latest observation: August 2018.
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Structural
Rubric factors holding back growth in some regions
Long-term unemployment
Regional employment
(percent of active population)
(2007 = 100)
Median
Median
Centre-Val de Loire
Centre-Val de Loire
120
21
115
18
110
15
105
12
100
9
95
90
6
85
3
80
75
0
2007
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
2011
2013
2015
2017
Sources: Eurostat, ECB calculations.
Notes: Data refer to total employment (15 to 64 years) of available euro area NUTS-2
regions. The grey area shows the interval between the 10th and the 90th percentile.
Latest observation: 2017.
Sources: Eurostat, ECB calculations.
Notes: Data refer to the unemployment rate (12 months and more) of available euro area
NUTS-2 regions. The grey area shows the interval between the 10th and the 90th percentile.
Latest observation: 2017.
2018-10-04 – Châteaudun
2009
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Institutional
quality decisive for economic prosperity
Rubric
GDP per capita and Worldwide Governance
Regulation as a problem
(index EU28 2017 = 100; ranking in 2008)
(percentage of responding SMEs)
90
FI
Worldwide Governance Indicator rank
85
DK
SE
NL
AT
80
UK
IE
DE
MT
75
FR
PT CY
SI
EE
70
ES
PL HU
65
BE
EU28
CZ
SK
LV
60
HR
LT
IT
GR
BG
55
RO
50
40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150
GDP per capita relative to EU28
Sources: Eurostat, World Bank.
Notes: The Worldwide Governance Indicator is the composite ranking of average positions in
six broad institutional dimensions. Luxembourg is excluded because GDP per capita
computations are distorted by, for example, the high number of cross-border workers. Data for
Ireland are adjusted to control for the exceptional GDP revision made for the year 2015.
2018-10-04 – Châteaudun
Sources: EC, ECB, ECB calculations.
Notes: Survey on the access to finance of enterprises (SAFE), Question 0: “How important
have the following problems (finding customers, competition, access to finance, costs of
production or labour, availability of skilled staff, regulation) been for your enterprise in the
past six months?” October 2017-March 2018.
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