GOVERNMENT MACRO INTERVENTION Broad topic objectives: To explain The aims of macro policy Fiscal, monetary & supply side policies. Effectiveness of macro policies Aims of macroeconomic policy • 1. Sustainable economic growth • 2. Low & stable price inflation • 3. Equilibrium or stable BOP position • 4.Full employment/low unemployment . • 5.Minimal exchange rate fluctuations • 6. sustainable economic development • Macro econ goals of govts. video. Types of macro econ policy:. There are 3 policies used to achieve macro econ objectives; Fiscal policy Monetary policy Supply side policy Give mind map from page 118: • 1.FISCAL POLICY (FP): • It’s a dd side policy that uses taxation & government spending to manage AD so as to attain macro econ aims. Tools of fiscal policy Taxation Government spending Types of fiscal policy: • 1. Expansionary FP • AKA reflationary FP. • Designed to raise AD thru cutting tax rates & raising Government spending on investment projects. • Aim: expand the economy so as to create more jobs and income. 2. Contractionary FP • AKA deflationary FP • Designed to lower AD thru raising tax rates & cutting Government spending on investment projects. • Aim: solve inflation by reducing disposable income. Top tip • A deliberate change in taxation(T) & government spending(G) to affect the AD is called Discretionary FP. • Forms of G & T that change without deliberate govt action are called automatic stabilizers. Examples of automatic stabiliers • During a recession, govt spending on unemployment benefits increases automatically due to rises in unemployment. • During a boom, higher incomes drags people in to higher tax brackets. Diagram : page 115 Observations • Y is the initial equilibrium which is below full employment. • As GDP rises Taxes increases and govt spending falls automatically. • The Budget • It’s a government annual fiscal plan outlining the govt revenue and spending sources. Types of budgets • 1. Balanced budget: • Occurs when tax revenues = govt expenditures. • 2. Surplus budget: • Occurs when tax revenues > govt expenditures • 3. Deficit budget: • Occurs when govt expenditures > tax revenues Top tip • Copy the cyclical & structural budget deficits from page 116. • 2. MONETARY POLICY(MP): • It’s dd side policy thru’ the central bank/Fed to alter AD so as to regulate the macro economy. Tools of monetary policy Interest rates Money supply Exchange rates Types of monetary policy(MP) • 1. Expansionary MP • AKA reflationary MP: • Occurs to raise money supply & AD thru a cut in interest rates, increases in money ss and reduction in exchange rates 2. Contractionary MP • AKA deflationary MP. • Occurs to lower money supply & AD thru an increase in interest rates, reduction in money ss and rises in exchange rates 3. Supply side policy • Designed to increase the LRAS or the economies productive capacity thru the product & factor markets. • Draw the diagram: Tools of MP • 1. Deregulation. • These are policies that encourage competition in the economy. • They reduce barriers to entry in various markets • This enables business growth while increasing investor confidence • E.g. Liberalisation of power generation & supply in Kenya 2. Tax & welfare benefits reductions • This causes pple to have high disposable incomes by increasing incentive to work. • They also reduce the firms prodn costs leading to prodn of high output • Lower benefits reduces the return of not working hence more incentive to work. 3. Education & training • This makes workers more skilled, flexible, mobile and more productive. • It can be continuous staff devpt thru on or off the job training • 4 Trade union reform • These are labour associations that represent workers before employers • Reform means making them comply with labour laws. • It increases worker motivation due to proper representation leading to higher productivity. • 5. Privatization • This involves converting state enterprises in to private sector businesses. • It helps to improve efficiency & productivity. • 6. Subsidies: • These are govt financial grants to help firms. • This is to increase productive efficiency and capacity. Tasks • Self assessment task page 118. • Policies to correct BOP disequilibrium: • They are of 2 types 1. Expenditure switching policies 2. Expenditure dampening policies 1.Expenditure switching policies • Policies used to encourage the purchase of local products and less of imports. • Both locals and foreigners are encouraged to buy local goods & services. • They help reduce the amount of spending on imports and to redirect/switch the spending on local goods and services. • Their impact is a fall on import expenditure and a rise on export earnings. • They are the trade barriers or methods of trade protection described in topic 4. • List them down here….. • 1. Tariffs • 2. • 3. • 4. 2. Expenditure dampening policies • They help to reduce the amount of spending in the country • Their effect on the economy is 2 fold: i. Few products will be imported ii. Dampening of the domestic market demand . They include; 1. Deflationary fiscal policy 2. Deflationary monetary policy Effectiveness of policy framework to solve a current account deficit • 1. Effectiveness of fiscal policy: • Current account deficit occurs when imports > exports. • Deflationary FP may help to reduce import demand. • It involves raising taxes on all economic agents. • High taxes reduce disposable incomes and possibly import dd. • However, high taxes may cause disincentive to work, unemployment, slow econ growth & low AS. • Imports may not reduce as much if PED for imports is inelastic. • FP should be used in conjunction with expenditure switching policies e.g. tariffs * quotas though they may provoke retaliation. • 2. Effectiveness of monetary policy; • MP can be used to reduce growth of money ss to correct a current account deficit • High interest rates may reduce incomes and imports dd. • However, they may cause capital inflows and a rise in the floating exchange rates making imports cheaper. • Changing interest rates is not automatic & may take like 18 months to effect them • Again, high rates will harm borrowers & benefit savers/investors. • It may reduce investments, raise unemployment and cause a slow down in econ growth. • Devaluation of exchange rates will make exports cheaper & imports • Expensive thereby reducing import dd. • However, effectiveness depends of PED of X & M as implied by the Marshal Lerner condition & |J curve effect. • Like fiscal policy, MP wont be effective on its own. 3. Effectiveness of supply side policy • Deregulation & privatization may increase competitiveness of domestic markets. • This leads to low prices and high quality products that may encouraging expenditure switching. • However, privatized firms may become inefficient if they turn out to be monopolies. They may also lay off staff so to maximize profits. • Deregulation & trade union reform may increase inefficiencies especially where market failure exists. • Education & training of labour force improves productivity & may attract more FDI’s. • However, benefits of education & training are only feasible in the LR and may constitute a huge opportunity cost. • Subsidizing local firms may also raise output and possibly check on import dd. • However, subsidies are costly to the taxpayers. • They may have high opportunity costs, provoke retaliation & subsidized firms may not pass entire benefits to consumers. Polices to correct inflation & deflation • Policies to correct demand pull inflation: • Deflationary FP & MP policies are used. • This deals with raising tax rates & cutting govt spending hence cutting back on AD & spending. • The Fed/central bank may also raise interest rates hence raising the cost of borrowing. • Large scale purchases e.g. mortgages will be reduced. • High rates also cause more savings hence reducing present consumption • Again high rates may attract hot money investments which may raise the exchange rates. • High exchange rates makes imports more expensive. • Supply side policies are also used to check on dd pull inflation. Task: • Make short notes on the effectiveness of policies to correct demand pull inflation. Page123-4 • Policies to reduce cost push inflation: • Cost push inflation occurs from the supply side due to high costs of production. • Supply side policies are used e.g. training of labor force to increase productivity & to reduce labor costs. • Lower corporate taxes may encourage firms to buy more efficient capital equipment. • Subsidizing firms with high production costs may help firms to lower prodn costs & prices. • Evaluation of supply side policies: • Training workers may raise their productivity but make them more expensive to hire. • Low corporation taxes may not lead to more investments if firms are pessimistic about the future. • Lastly subsidies may raise AD but firms may not use them efficiently to raise output. Policies to correct deflation • Deflation is the fall in the rate of inflation. • Reflationary FP & MP are used e.g. cutting tax, interest rates & increases in MS. • However, rise in govt spending may be better since it will stimulate AD causes more spending. • Again, if interest rates are already low, cutting them again would not help much. • Lastly even though CBK raise money supply, banks may not lend more if borrowers aren’t credit worthy. The end Prep – page 126 Revision summary and questionspage 127