Review of Microeconomics Before studying Global Economics, there is the need to be familiar with the consumer and producer theory from Microeconomics. For the purpose of this course, some new microeconomic concepts are also going to be introduced. ο· Consumer Theory One of the most basic things is that any consumer will maximize its utility, constrained by its income. M=Income Max U(X,Y) s.t: Px X+Py Y=M Px Py βΊ Px X+Py Y=M MRSx,y = By solving this problem, we get always the demand functions for good X and good Y. However, by using only the first of the two equations, MRSx,y = Px Py , we are able to draw the Relative Demand curve (RD), which give us the proportion of goods that X P Y Py are demanded in the economy ( ), given the relative price of the goods ( x). For example, on a simple CobbDouglas utility function like π, π = π 0,5 π 0,5 , we derive the following Relative Demand (RD): ππ ππ₯,π¦ = ⇔ ⇔ ⇔ ππ ππ₯ ππ ππ¦ = ππ₯ ππ¦ ππ₯ ππ¦ 0,5 π −0,5 π 0,5 0,5 π 0,5 π −0,5 = ππ₯ ππ¦ π·π π = → Relative Demand πΏ π·π π NOTE: As you will probably notice throughout the course, we will use Social Utility Functions (SUF), which give us the preferences of a country as a whole. In fact, this means that the (relative) demand functions derived are relative to an economy as a whole and not a single consumer. Nevertheless, computations are similar. ο· Producer Theory In the producer theory, each firm decides which quantity of capital (K) and Labor (L) to use to produce a certain quantity of output (Q), minimizing its costs. Let β be the quantity the firm wants to produce. The production function is given by π πΏ, πΎ πππ ππΆ = π€. πΏ + π. πΎ π . π‘: π(πΏ, πΎ) = β βΊ π€ π π(πΏ, πΎ) = β ππ πππΏ,πΎ = The relevant equation here is the first one which tells us the Relative Demand for inputs (K and L) in the factor market. Nevertheless, we also want to derive the Relative Supply curve (RS) in order to π compute the equilibrium relative prices ( π₯ ), if we also know the Relative Demand (RD). ππ¦ To do so, we’re going to assume that each firm is a price-taker, and so faces the following maximization problem: Max π = π. π − ππΆ(π) {π} And so, we immediately say that P = MC; and that’s not wrong! However in this course we’re going to see things in a different perspective: It is known that firms can choose the capital and labor to use, being exactly equivalent of choosing the quantity to produce, since the production function give us the relation between Q and K, L. So, each firm faces the following maximization problem: Max Ππ₯ = ππ₯ . π πΎπ₯ , πΏπ₯ − ππΆ πΎπ₯ , πΏπ₯ = ππ₯ . π πΎπ₯ , πΏπ₯ − π€. πΏπ₯ − π. πΎπ₯ {πΎπ₯ ,πΏπ₯ } ππ F.O.C : ππΏπ₯ ππ ππΎπ₯ = 0 ⇔ ππ₯ . πππΏπ₯ − π€ = 0 ⇔ = 0 ⇔ ππ₯ . ππππ₯ − π = 0 ⇔ π€ ππ₯ π ππ₯ = πππΏπ₯ = ππππ₯ We are assuming that a firm from sector X is maximizing its profit. However, firms from sector Y do it as well. So, doing the same for sector Y we get that: π€ ππ¦ π¦ = πππΏ ; π ππ¦ π¦ = πππ . By solving the following equation we get the RS: π€ π¦ π¦ = πππΏ ⇔ π€ = πππΏ . ππ¦ ππ¦ π¦ βΊ πππΏπ₯ . ππ₯ = πππΏ . ππ¦ βΊ π€ = πππΏπ₯ ⇔ π€ = πππΏπ₯ . ππ₯ ππ₯ π π·π π΄π·π³ = π·π π΄π·ππ³ Knowing the RD and RS, we are now able to compute the relative equilibrium prices. However, the RS derived here will only be used on the H-O Model. In the 2x2 model it’s not relevant to solve the firm's maximization problem since it does not consider any production at all. 2x2 model In this model, we have two countries (π» and πΉ) changing two goods (X and Y), where those goods have no production, that is, the quantity of each good that an economy has in autarky (closed economy, with no trade) is given and fixed. That is, there is an endowment of goods (π , π) in autarky. Hence, the Relative Supply has to be a vertical straight line. Knowing the RD and the RS, we can compute the relative autarky prices in equilibrium. Although RS-RD analysis is important, there is the need to plot other graphs in order to understand better what's going on. Consumers will maximize their utility, given the endowment of the economy. If you remember consumer theory from microeconomics, it is known that: ∗ ππ₯ ππ ππ₯,π¦ = ππ¦ ππ’π‘ . Meaning that the relative autarky prices, in equilibrium, will be the slope of the line tangent to π3 at point E (line π). Formalizing the consumer problem, we have that: πππ₯ π(π, π) π . π‘: ππ₯ π + ππ¦ π = π , π€ππππ π‘ππ ππππππ π ππ πππ£ππ ππ¦ π = ππ₯ π + ππ¦ π . The idea here that π = ππ₯ π + ππ¦ π is fairly easy to understand. First, we have to take into account that we’re in an economy that has only 2 goods (X,Y) and those cannot be produced. Hence, the “income” in this model is given by the total value of the goods that are endowed. ο· FT Equilibrium Until know, we have only seen the autarky equilibrium and not the free trade equilibrium between countries. Assume now that there are 2 countries ( π» and πΉ ), that have different endowments and/or different preferences. The following graphs represent each one of the economies: π» − π»πππ πΆππ’ππ‘ππ¦ πΉ − πΉππππππ πΆππ’ππ‘ππ¦ Will they trade? If they do so, what is the pattern of trade? As we can see, given this example, ππ₯ ππ¦ π» < ππ’π‘ . ππ₯ ππ¦ πΉ , meaning that, in country H, Y is ππ’π‘ . relatively more expensive than in country F ⇒ H wants to trade X for Y, that is, export X and import Y. On the other side, in country F, X is relatively more expensive ⇒ F wants to trade Y for X, that is, export Y and import X. So, there would be trade between these countries because they have incentives to do so, and the pattern of trade is going to be the one described above. Despite the conclusions reached so far, there is the need to examine more specifically what’s happening. In order to do that, we want to “draw this problem” in an Edgeworth Box - Try to rotate the graph from Foreign country (F) represented above by 180Λ, such that it forms a square similar to this: (Note that the E represents both countries’ endowments). We’ve already seen that country H wants to trade X in exchange for Y, and that F wants to trade Y in exchange for X, and this fact is verified in the Edgeworth box. Actually, any point in the area with dashed lines would be better than point E (Why? Because both countries, H and F, can consume at higher utility curves). These countries will trade until there is no more incentive to trade, i.e until ππ₯ ππ¦ π» = ππ₯ ππ¦ πΉ ⇔ ππ ππ₯,π¦ π» = ππ ππ₯,π¦ πΉ βΆ Contract Curve Here, the contract curve does not have a specific shape. However, that is not a relevant feature. What is important is to understand that the contract curve give us all the possible equilibrium points. ( Note that π = ππ₯ ππ¦ . ) π is the competitive equilibrium, for this given endowment. A competitive equilibrium is reached when countries change goods until no one can improve its utility, given the relative prices prevailing in the market. Formally speaking, point π is given by the following conditions: ππ ππ₯,π¦ π» = ππ ππ₯,π¦ πΉ → πΆπππ‘ππππ‘ πΆπ’ππ£π ππ₯ ∗ ππ» + ππ¦ ∗ ππ» = ππ₯ ∗ ππ» + ππ¦ ∗ ππ» ππ₯ ∗ ππΉ + ππ¦ ∗ ππΉ = ππ₯ ∗ ππΉ + ππ¦ ∗ ππΉ The last 2 conditions mean that, for each country, the value of consumption is equal to the value of the endowments. In a more intuitive way, we can say for example that country H has an income (M) = ππ₯ ∗ ππ» + ππ¦ ∗ ππ» , and so like what we saw in the consumer theory from Microeconomics, it cannot consume a bundle of goods more expensive than that. So, in a competitive equilibrium, each country consumption’ expenditure must be equal to its “income”. This is what makes the equilibrium competitive. However, we can obtain non- competitive equilibriums; if, for example, country H forces country F to consume less than its “income” would allow for. Furthermore, if H is exporting X and importing Y, under free trade, it’s natural that ππ₯ ππ¦ π» starts to increase because X starts to be more scarce and Y more abundant in ππ’π‘ . country H. The opposite happens in country F. So, the conclusion drawn is that ππ₯ ππ¦ π» < ππ’ π‘. ππ₯ ππ¦ ∗ < πΉπ ππ₯ ππ¦ πΉ . ππ’π‘ . There are further ways to represent the free trade equilibrium: οΆ Aggregate Supply and Aggregate Demand One of the easiest ways to compute the relative prices under FT equilibrium is by aggregating the demand from country H with the one from country F. Here we will not aggregate relative demands but the demand for good X. Two things should be noticed here. πΉ The first one is that πΈπ₯π.π» π₯ = πΌππ.π₯ , since there are only two countries trading, what one exports the other has to import. If we do the same for market Y, we have that πΈπ₯π.πΉπ¦ = πΌππ.π» π¦ . The second one is that, by Walra’s law (proved later on), we can say for sure that when the market for good X is in equilibrium, the market for good Y has to be in equilibrium as well, and vice-versa. This means that, given that the relative equilibrium price for market X is ππ₯ ππ¦ ∗ , then the relative equilibrium price for market Y is ππ₯ ππ¦ ∗ as well. οΆ Offer Curves An Offer Curve gives us how much it is willing to “offer” of one good (export) in exchange for the other good (import). But, before doing it, we have first to realize that relative prices are what define the “budget constraint” for a country to consume. Take country H as an example. If the equilibrium prices are the autarky prices, then country H will consume at πΆ0 = ππ» , ππ» ,that is, it will not trade and just consume its endowments (why?). If the international prices are higher than the autarky prices, then the “budget constraint” changes from line π to line π . At these new prices, the economy wants to consume at πΆ1 , and for that it needs to import πΌ units of good Y and π½ units of good X. If we try to do this with several different relative prices, we can draw the offer curve of country H : We can do the same for country F and derive both countries’ offer curves. The equilibrium would be when the offer curves cross each other. οΆ Excess Supply Functions There is one more way to find out the equilibrium price, but I’m not going to discuss it in great detail, so I’ll just leave here the graphical representation: Equilibrium: πΈπ₯πππ π ππ’ππππ¦ πΉπ’πππ‘ππππ»+πΉ = 0 H-O Model / 2x2x2 model Before studying the H-O Model and its assumptions, it is very important to know the producer theory in order to better understand this model! (See again the chapter on Reviews of Microeconomics) The crucial assumption in this model is that technologies/ production functions are Constant Return to Scale (CRS). If we consider that X = F(K, L) is a production function, CRS, where X is the quantity produced and K and L are the inputs used, we obtain that: πΉ ππΎ, ππΏ = π. πΉ πΎ, πΏ = π. π For example, if π = 2, that means that when we are doubling the inputs, the output also doubles --> πΉ 2πΎ, 2πΏ = 2. πΉ πΎ, πΏ = 2. π There are some implications derived from this assumption. 1 1) If π = , then : πΉ πΏ πΎ πΏ , πΏ πΏ = π πΏ βΊπ π = π πΏ , π€ππππ π = πΎ πΏ π This means that the average productivity of labor, , is a function of the capital πΏ intensity (π ). The same can be proved for the average productivity of capital, π πΎ 2) If F(K, L) is a CRS function, meaning it is homogeneous of degree 1, then the derivatives of F ( ππΉ ππΎ πππ ππΉ ππΏ ) have to be homogeneous of degree 0, meaning that the marginal productivity of capital (πππΎ ) and the marginal productivity of labor ( πππΏ )are homogeneous of degree 0 ⇒ ππ πΎ = πΊ πΎ,πΏ = πΊ ππΎ ,ππΏ ππ πΏ = π» πΎ,πΏ = π» ππΎ ,ππΏ , for any θ. For example, if π = 2, that means that when we are doubling the inputs, the output will remain constant. So, for π = 1 πΏ , we have that the πππΎ πππ πππΏ πππ π ππ’πππ‘πππ ππ π (capital intensity) 3) The Euler Theorem says that ππΉ πΉ πΎ, πΏ = πΎ. ππΎ + πΏ. ππΉ ππΏ βΊ π = πΎ. πππΎ + πΏ. πππΏ By the producer's maximization problem, we know that (See chapter on review of microeconomics) : π ππ₯ π€ πππΏ = ππ₯ πππΎ = So, we have that: π = πΎ. πππΎ + πΏ. πππΏ βΊ π = πΎ. π ππ₯ + πΏ. π€ ππ₯ βΊ ππ₯ . π = π. πΎ + π€. πΏ The last equation means that the value of production (ππ₯ . π) must be equal to the cost of production (π. πΎ + π€. πΏ) , implying that the firm has zero profits. This result makes sense, given the assumption of the model that firms are price-takers. 4) Another important result is that, for the same capital intensity (π), the ππ πππΏ,πΎ is constant (= πΌ): Another relevant feature here is that, when the capital intensity decreases, the ππ πππΏ,πΎ decreases as well. Because ππ πππΏ,πΎ = π€ π , then we can say also that π€ π decreases with the capital intensity. 5) The contract curve is given by ππ πππΏ,πΎ π₯ = ππ πππΏ,πΎ π¦ , and it can have only one out of these three shapes: 1) ππ₯ > ππ¦ --> X is the capital intensive good. 2) ππ₯ = ππ¦ 3) ππ₯ < ππ¦ --> X is the labor intensive good. Furthermore, cases 1 and 3 imply that the P.P.F of an economy has to be concave. Case 2 implies that the P.P.F has to be linear. 6) CRS is compatible with Factor Intensity Reversals (FIR) This is a property that is not going to be used intensively in this course, because along the course we always assume no FIRs, for simplicity. Basically this property says that two sectors may invert their relative factor intensity for different factor prices. For example, for a certain factor price sector X is the capital intensive sector, and for other factor price it is the labor intensive sector. Now that we've seen some properties of this model, we need to summarize some important relationships: Take into account that throughout this model we will always assume that X is the capital intensive good ( ππ₯ > ππ¦ ) : (i) Relationship between π€ π and ππ₯ , ππ¦ If X is the capital intensive good, then we have a concave contract curve. By picking two points along the contract curve, points A and π΅1 , we observe that : ο· ππ΄ is higher than ππ΅ , that is, the capital intensity at point A is higher than at point B. This applies for both goods, X and Y. ο· π€ π π΄ > π€ π π΅ . First we have to realize that MRTS = π€ π in equilibrium , which is the slope of the tangent. In order to compare point A with π΅1 , we have to use point π΅2 knowing that the slope of a tangent to π΅1 is the same as the slope of the tangent to π΅2 . As we can see clearly, ππ πππΏ,πΎ π΄ > ππ πππΏ,πΎ π΅2 .´ οΆ From point A to point B, the capital intensity decreased and π€ π ππ‘ππ§ decreased as well. In other words, π° ππππ«πππ¬π , π€ π± ππ§π π€ π² ππππ«πππ¬π ππ¨π¨. π« (ii) Relationship between w r and ππ₯ ππ¦ If we continue to assume that X is the capital intensive good, we know that the contract curve is concave as well as the PPF. The contract curve will be similar to the one represented above. When we move from point A to π΅1 , w r decreases and more is produced of X and less of Y - πΎπ₯ πππ πΏπ₯ πππππππ π π€ππππ πΎπ¦ πππ πΏπ¦ πππππππ π. By looking at the PPF, we realize that ππ₯ ππ¦ increases when we move from A to π΅1 . Do not forget that, by definition, ππ₯ ππ¦ = ππ ππ₯,π¦ , that is, the slope of the line tangent to a certain point. At π΅1 the slope is higher than at A. οΆ From point A to point π΅1 , π€ π decreased while ππ‘ππ§ ππ₯ ππ¦ π° π« increased. In other words, ππππ«πππ¬π , π·π π·π π’π§ππ«πππ¬ππ . In order to summarize all these relationships together, we draw the Samuelson Note that this graphs are only for the case where X is capital intensive and there are no Factor Intensity Reversals. Diagram. After deriving some important relationships and the Samuelson diagram, it is also important to know some theorems on this model. ο· Rybczynski Theorem At constant relative commodity prices, ππ₯ ππ¦ , an relative increase in one factor increases the supply of the good that uses intensively that factor, and an absolute contraction on the supply of the other good. In other words: ππ πΉπΌπ π ππ₯ If ππ¦ = ππ₯ ππ¦ 0 π ππ πΎ − πππ‘πππ ππ£π ΔπΎ > 0 ; ΔπΏ = 0 ⇒ ππ ↑ ππ ↓ Proof: Assuming that there is an increase in capital endowment (πΎ ) First we need to understand that for relative commodity prices to maintain constant it is necessary that ππ₯ and ππ¦ maintain constant as well. We can easily observe that in the Samuelson Diagram: When there is an increase in the capital endowment, the edgeworth box "expands vertically". Hence, for the relative prices to remain constant, the capital intensities need to be constant, i.e the slope of the line πΌπ΄ needs to be maintained in order for ππ₯ to be constant, and the slope of the line π½π΄ needs to be maintained in order for ππ¦ to be constant. Following this, we get to a new point, out of the old contract curve, point B. Note that this point belongs to the new contract curve (the contract curve changes when the endowments change). Furthermore: πΌπ΄ < πΌπ΅ ⇒ π π ↑ π½π΄ < ππ΅ βΉ π π ↓ Prooving the Ryb. Theorem! Note that point B is obtained by maintaining ππ₯ ππ¦ ππ₯ = 0 ππ¦ . If we do this for all the relative prices, we would be able to plot the new contract curve and the new PPF, as it is represented above. Intuitively, we know that the expansion of the PPF is biased towards X since there is an increase on the factor that is used intensively by this good (K). If Y was the K-intensive good for example, the expansion would be biased towards Y. ο· Stolper Samuelson Theorem An increase in relative commodity prices ππ₯ , everything else constant, will ππ¦ increase the real return on the factor used intensively by good X and a decrease in the real return on the factor used intensively by good Y. In other words: ππ πΉπΌπ π ππ₯ If ππ¦ ↑ ⇒ π ππ πΎ − πππ‘πππ ππ£π ΔπΎ = 0 ; ΔπΏ = 0 π ππ₯ ↑; π ππ¦ ↑; π€ ππ₯ ↓; π€ ππ¦ ↓ Proof: Assuming that initially to ππ₯ ππ¦ 1 ππ₯ ππ¦ , we have that : = ππ₯ ππ¦ 0 , and then the relative prices increased When the relative prices increase, the capital intensities for both goods decrease. As we've seen in Microeconomics, π ππ = πππΎπ and π€ ππ = πππΏπ , for good π. It is also known from Microeconomics that πππΎ depends negatively on capital intensity (k) and that πππΏ depends positively on capital intensity (k). So, we can immediately say that π ππ₯ ↑; π ππ¦ ↑; π€ ππ₯ ↓; π€ ππ¦ ↓. There are still two more theorems, but we're going to talk about them later on. ο· Autarky equilibrium The autarky equilibrium is fairly easy to derive: (a) Demand side is given by a social utility function (b) Supply side is given by a PPF Then, the closed economy equilibrium is: We can also represent this equilibrium by plotting the RS and RD : ο· Shock in closed economy Starting in a closed economy equilibrium, what happens if π«π² > 0 ? (Note that this is not the same as in the Ryb. Theorem' proof , since we're not fixing relative prices) Assuming that X is the capital intensive good, technologies are CRS and preferences are homothetic, as we always assume, we have: (i) On the Supply Side By the Ryb. Theorem, for the same relative prices, an increase in capital endowment will increase the supply of the food that uses capital intensively (good X), and decrease the supply of the other good (Y). So, for the same ππ₯ ππ¦ the RS expands. (ii) On the Demand Side When the capital endowment increases, consumer's budget constraint increase as well. However, because preferences are homothetic, for the same relative prices, the relative consumption is the same. That is, for the same ππ₯ ππ¦ , π π remains constant. , π π increases. This means that (iii) We conclude that ππ₯ ππ¦ decreases and π π increases, in equilibrium. We conclude also that : By the Samuelson diagram : ππ₯ ππ¦ ↓ ⇒ By the Stolper Samuelson Theorem: π€ π ππ₯ ππ¦ ο International Trade i. ↑ ; ππ₯ ↑ ; ππ¦ ↑ ↓ ⇒ π ππ₯ ↓; π ππ¦ ↓; π€ ππ₯ π€ ↑; ππ¦ ↑. π To simplify : π = ππ₯ π¦ Small Country Case In this case, we assume that the country is so small that it cannot influence international prices. As so, the international prices (π∗ ) are given, and the country is a price-taker. Here, we assume that relative autarky prices are lower than relative international prices (πππ’π‘ . < π∗ ). The first conclusion is that the small country is going to export X, the good where it has relative advantage, and it's going to import Y. 0 - Autarky 1 - Free Trade When the small country is under free trade, it will produce at π1 . Under free trade, the economy can consume at any point in the CPF (Consumption Possibility Frontier). By maximizing utility, it will consume at πΆ1 , a bundle out of the PPF. Another obvious conclusion is that the economy will be better off under free trade, since π’1 > π’0 . ii. Large Country Case In the large country case, both countries influence international prices. That means international prices are an endogeneous variable. Suppose there are two countries, the Home country (H) and the Foreign country (F), π» πΉ where πππ’π‘ . < πππ’π‘ . . Given this, we can compute the offer curves of each country and calculate the equilibrium international prices (To draw the offer curves, please recall what we've done in the 2x2 model) Another way to compute the equilibrium is by aggregating supply and demand. However we're not going to compute it here, since it's similar to what we've done in the 2x2 chapter. ο Determinants of Trade π» πΉ We already know that , for example, if πππ’π‘ . < πππ’π‘ . , then Home will export X and import Y, while the Foreign Country will export Y and import X. However, it's also π» πΉ important to figure out why πππ’π‘ . < πππ’π‘ . and what determines it. In this course, we're going to see the following features: a) b) c) d) e) Size Preferences Factor Endowments Technology Market Structure NOTE: Throughout these demonstrations it is assumed that technologies are CRS , preferences are homothetic, there are no FIRs and X is the capital-intensive good First of all we have to realize that, in this model, if both countries are absolutely π» πΉ identical they will have no incentive to trade since πππ’π‘ . = πππ’π‘ . a) Assume that there are two countries (H and F) which are absolutely identical, except that F is twice as H . This means that 2. πΎπ» = πΎπΉ and 2. πΏπ» = πΏπΉ . An equivalent thing to do is to see what happens to the Home country when its endowments are doubled, for a fixed relative price: As we've seen when proving the Ryb. Theorem, in order to maintain the same relative prices it is also necessary to keep the capital intensities constant. So, we conclude that, for the same relative prices, both countries supply the same relative amount π π . That is, π ππ» = π ππΉ . For the demand side, we know that consumers from country F have twice the income of consumers from country H (πΌππππππΉ = π€. 2πΏπ» + π. 2πΎπ» ) . However, because preferences are equal and homothetic, F consumer's optimal relative consumption is the same as H consumer, for the same relative prices. This means that π π·π» = π π·πΉ . π» πΉ Since both countries have the same RS and RD, it's easy to conclude that πππ’π‘ . = πππ’π‘ . , hence they will not have any incentive to trade. We just proved that, in the context of this model, size does not matter for trade! b) Assume again there are two countries (H and F) absolutely identical, except that H' preferences are biased towards Y and F' preferences are biased towards X , as shown below: Given this, we conclude that, for the same relative prices π π· π π» < π π· π πΉ . Please be aware that if the axis are changed, i.e the vertical axis is X instead of Y and the horizontal axis is Y instead of X , we would have obtained that π π· π π» > π π· π πΉ from the graph represented above. It all depends on the way you choose to draw it. On the supply side, since we assumed that endowments* and technologies are constant, among other things, we know that π π π π» = π π π πΉ , for the same relative prices. * We can assumed that F is twice as H and still we will obtain the same result, since size does not matter for trade. The autarky equilibrium for both countries would be: π» πΉ Because πππ’π‘ . < πππ’π‘ . , there will be trade where the Home country exports X and imports Y while the Foreign country exports Y and imports X. So, preferences matter for trade! c) Here, factor endowments are seen in relative terms πΎ πΏ . That's why this parameter for trade is different from "size", where relative factor endowments are equal. So, let's assume that πΏπ» = πΏπΉ and that πΎπ» = 2. πΎπΉ , without lost of generality (since size does not matter). Due to the Ryb. Theorem, we know that, for the same relative prices, π π π π» > As seen before, because preferences are equal and homothetic, we have that π π· π πΉ , for the same relative prices. π π π πΉ π π· π π» . = π» πΉ Because πππ’π‘ . < πππ’π‘ . , there will be trade where the Home country exports X and imports Y while the Foreign country exports Y and imports X. So, relative factor endowments matter for trade! With respect to factor endowments, there is a theorem about it : H-O Theorem The theorem says that a capital abundant country tends to export the capital intensive good, while the labor abundant country tends to export the other good. However, there are 2 different definitions of abundance. 1. Physical definition - This is what we've seen above. If πΎ πΏ π» > πΎ πΏ πΉ and preferences are equal, then H exports the capital intensive good (X) and F exports the labor intensive good (Y). 2. Price definition - Here, the definition of capital abundance is not who has more πΎ πΏ , but rather the price of those factors. That is, knowing that capital costs π and that labor costs π€, if π€ π π» > π€ π πΉ , then in the Home country labor is relatively more costly than in the Foreign country, hence H is capital abundant while F is labor abundant. This means that H is going to export X while F is going to export Y. For this to be compatible π» πΉ with this model, it is mandatory that πππ’π‘ . < πππ’π‘ . , which is proven below: (Note that, in this version, same preferences assumption does not need to hold. So, we can say that the "physical version" is a particular case of the "price version") iv) A better model to see differences in technologies is the Ricardian Model. Nevertheless, in the H-O Model, technology is also a determinant of trade. But we will not prove it. v) The H-O model assumes that all the markets are in perfect competition, where all firms are price-takers for all sectors. However, this might not be true. For example, we can have a monopolist producing in one sector. ο Consequences of Free Trade The consequences of trade are summarized in the Factor Price Equalization Theorem This theorem says that factor prices will be equalized under free trade, if there are no transportation costs and there is incomplete specialization for both countries. By other words, if country H and F have the same technologies, CRS, there are no FIRs and no transportation costs, then they will trade until ππ» = ππΉ = π∗ . The concept of incomplete specialization was not specified until here for simplicity reasons. However that concept must be explained, in order to fully understand the FPE Theorem.It happens that until now the Samuelson Diagram was not rigorously drawn. Take the example of this country, with an endowment of π . If the international prices are below π1 , the country will produce only good Y - it will fully specialize in good Y. To do so, it will allocate all its inputs in sector Y , and so the relative prices of inputs π π will be πΌ. However, it doesn't matter how "low" commodity prices (π) are, because the country is already allocating all its inputs in sector Y, hence π π will always be πΌ for any π < π1 . Furthermore, at π π = πΌ , the capital intensity of good X is π1 . Note that this is the maximum capital intensity that sector X can have. The minimum is, naturally, π . If the international prices are above π2 , the country wants to produce only good X - it will fully specialize in good X. To do so, it will allocate all its inputs in sector X , and so the relative prices of inputs π π will be π½. And the same happens as before : it doesn't matter how "high" commodity prices(π) are, because the country is already allocating all its inputs in sector X, hence π π will always be π½ . Moreover, at π π = π½ , the capital intensity of good Y is π2 . It should also be noticed that this is the minimum capital intensity that sector Y can have. The maximum is, naturally, π . Having said this, the complete Samuelson Diagram looks like this: So, when we say "incomplete specialization" it means that π1 < π∗ < π2 . Additionally, keep in mind that samuelson diagram can be different for two identical countries with different endowments. Going back to the FPE Theorem, let's assume two countries, H and F, with a relative endowment of ππ» and ππΉ , respectively. If international prices are ππ΄ , the real return on factors will be the same under free trade for both countries. That happens because at that price both countries will have the same capital intensities under free trade, hence the same πππΏ and πππΎ . This applies for both goods, so the return on factors has to be the same in both countries. But, if π = ππ΅ , country F will fully specialize in the production of good X and the H country will not. In equlibrium, the capital intensities in each country will be different, thus the return on factors cannot be the same. Another important feature on this chapter is that free trade is a good substitute for factor mobility. The main idea here is that when countries "trade" factors (labor and capital), that is, workers and machines moving from one country to another, it's always π€ π ππ ππ with the aim of increasing the real return on labor and capital ( and ). That is, workers have an incentive to move to the country where they can achieve a higher utility level and capital owners invest where they can have a higher return. However, if FPE Theorem prevails, that incentive disappears given that real return on factors will be equalized under free trade. Ricardian Model The Ricardian Model is a model focused mainly on differences in technologies among countries. Ricardo proved that what matter for trade is not absolute advantage but rather comparative advantage. In this model there are two countries, the Home country and the Foreign country, two goods, X and Y, and only one factor, labor. There is still a factor endowment (for labor only). In this model it's assumed that the production function are like this: 1 π= . πΏπ₯ ππ₯ where ππ₯ is the technological coefficient or unit labor requirement, that is, the amount of labor required to produce 1 unit of X. Considering only the Home Country for now, to build the model we only need 3 equations: π= 1 ππ₯ π» π= . πΏπ₯ 1 ππ¦ π» . πΏπ¦ πΏπ₯ + πΏπ¦ = πΏπ» Note that π» πππ’π‘ . = ππ₯ π» ππ¦ π» . ⇔ ππ₯ π» . π + ππ¦ π» . π = πΏπ» βΊ π = πΏπ» ππ¦ π» − ππ₯ π» ππ¦ π» . π --> PPF π» πΉ ο· Free trade - Assume that πππ’π‘ . < πππ’π‘ . ⇔ ππ₯ π» ππ¦ π» < ππ₯ πΉ ππ¦ πΉ First of all, it is important to figure out what will be the international price (π∗ ) when country H and F start trading. To do so we're going to use the supply and demand model. The world RS would be like this : π» πΉ --> If π∗ < πππ’π‘ . < πππ’π‘ . , then both countries would fully specialize in producing Y βΉ π π =0 π» ∗ πΉ -->If πππ’π‘ . < π < πππ’π‘ . , then H will fully specialize in X and F will fully specialize in Y π» πΉ ∗ --> If πππ’π‘ . < πππ’π‘ . < π , then both countries would fully specialize in procucing X Depending on the demand curve, we can obtain different equilibriums: 1. Country H is considered a large country and F a small country Here, the international π» prices are equal to πππ’π‘ . , so country H does not have any incentive to trade. However, country F gains from trade since π’1 > π’0 Here, F fully specialize in producing good Y. 2. Both countries are considered large countries π» ∗ πΉ Here both countries fully specialize because πππ’π‘ . < π < πππ’π‘ . . Country H fully specialize in X while country F fully specialize in Y. 3. Country F is considered a large country and H a small country Here, the international πΉ prices are equal to πππ’π‘ . , so country F does not have any incentive to trade. However, country H gains from trade since π’1 > π’0 Here, H fully specialize in producing good X. ο Gains from trade Although we already know that there are gains from trade ( since at least one of the countries sees its utility level increase when trading), we want to analyze those gains by computing the changes in the real wage rates. In this model, π ππ = πππΏπ = 1 ππ but only if the country is producing good π. So, assuming that both countries were producing both goods before trade, we have that : Specific Factors Model/ Ricardo-Viner Model The Specific factors model is a short-run model of the H-O Model. The latter assumes that K and L can move freely across sectors, which we know it's possible in the long-run. The specific factors model assume that only labor can move freely across sectors. In this model there are two sectors, X and Y, where sector X uses land (T) and labor (πΏπ₯ ) while sector Y uses capital (K) and labor (πΏπ¦ ). There is still endowments in the economy.So, we have that: (1) π = πΉ(π, πΏπ₯ ) π = πΊ(πΎ, πΏπ¦ ) (2) π = π ; πΎ = πΎ ; πΏπ₯ + πΏπ¦ = πΏ (3) Going back to the microeconomics review chapter, π€ ππ¦ π€ = πππΏπ₯ and ππ₯ π¦ = πππΏ . By manipulating the equations, we get that π€ ππ¦ = ππ₯ π€ ππ¦ ππ₯ ππ₯ πππΏπ₯ ππ¦ and so we can represent this model in the following graph: π¦ ⇔ πππΏ = = ππ₯ ππ¦ πππΏπ₯ ο· Free Trade Equilibrium ( Assuming that πππ’π‘ . < π∗ ) Before doing this analysis, it's necessary to understand that if π πΏπ₯ and πΎ πΏπ¦ change then the real return on factors change as well, as we've done in the H-O Model. Because international prices are higher than autarky prices: πΏπ₯ ↑ and πΏπ¦ ↓ ⇒ π πΏπ₯ ↓ and πΎ πΏπ¦ ↑ ⇒ ππ ππ ππΎ ππ π€ ππ₯ π€ ππ¦ ↑ (Real return on land increased) ↓ (Real return on capital decreased) . ↓ (Real wage in terms of X decreased) . ↑ (Real wage in terms of Y increased) . We conclude that, in this case (πππ’π‘ . < π∗ ), when the country opens to trade, land owners will gain while capital owners will lose. Workers will be devided since the real wage increased in terms of one good but decreased in terms of the other good. Economies of Scale The conclusion from the H-O Model and the Ricardian Model is that identical countries do not have any incentive to trade. However, in reality, what we see is trade between very similar countries. For example, Germany and France trade a lot - Germany exports volkswagens to France and imports Renaults from France, and vice-versa. This model tries to explain why this happens, and the main argument is that is due to the existence of economies of scale. However, there are two different model regarding economies of scale: (A) Economies of scale external to the firm (and intrinsic to the industry) (B) Economies of scale internal to the firm (A) The idea here is that, if a new firm goes into the sector (X or Y), it immediatly get advantage of economies of scale. Assume two goods, X and Y, two countries, H and F, and 1 factor, labor (L). Assume also that sector X is the only one that get advantage of economies of scale. The model is as follow: π= π= 1 π΄π₯ . πΏπ₯ , π€ππππ π΄π₯ πππππππ ππ π 1 . πΏπ¦ ππ¦ πΏπ₯ + πΏπ¦ = πΏ Solving the model, we get the following PPF: π = πΏ ππ¦ − π΄π₯ ππ¦ . π , where π΄π₯ is not fixed, as it was in the Ricardian Model. Drawing the PPF, we get : Because the aim of this model is to show that 2 identical countries have incentive to trade if there are economies of scale, let's assume that H and F have the same preferences, the same technology and the same endowments. Assume also that X is the sector that has economies of scale. The first thing you should notice is that both countries have the same PPF (the one drawn above). When opening to FT, if one country specialize in one good while the other specialize in the other good, there are gains from trade due to economies of scale (X becomes cheaper). Although this model explains why there can be trade between identical countries, it does not predict the pattern of trade. There are several possibilities (actually, there are 6 possible patterns of trade). ο Gains from trade To measure if countries gain from trade, we have to look at the real wage rates in both countries. Let's consider the pattern of trade where H fully specialize in X and F fully specialize in Y , although there are other possible patterns of trade. Remember that in this pattern of trade ππ» < π∗ < ππΉ Before trade : π€ ππ₯ π» π€ ππ¦ After trade: ↑ ↑ = π» π€ ππ₯ π» π€ ππ¦ = = 1 ππ₯ πΉ π€ 1 ππ¦ ππ¦ 1 πΉ = = 1 π΄ 1π₯ 1 ππ¦ ↑ π΄ 2π₯ ↓ = ↑ π» π€ π΄ 1π₯ π€ ππ₯ π» . ↑ π∗ When trading both countries gain from trade! π€ ππ₯ πΉ π€ ππ¦ = πΉ = 1 ππ¦ π€ ππ¦ . πΉ 1 ↓ π∗ (B) In this model, each firm has economies of scale instrinsic to its own production, thus a natural monopolist will appear in the production of each good. So, the number of goods is endogeneous and equal to the number of firms, since each firm produces one good. Unlike the models we've seen before, there is only one sector here (ex: cars), but each firm produces a differentiated good in that sector (ex: volkswagen, renault, fiat, etc.). This type of competition is called monopolistic competition. Building the model: i. The demand faced by each firm is given by: ππ = π 1 π − π(ππ − π) , where Q is the total amount of output (ex: total amount of cars) and π the average price in the market. Furthermore, we assume that each firm is so small that it cannot influence the total market output (and price π ) --> Q is given and fixed. π = π . Every firm has the same cost structure : ππΆ = πΉ + π. ππ ii. In equilibrium, iii. Each firm acts as a monopolist for the demand it faces: ππ = ππΆ ππ In order to calculate the MR we have to manipulate the demand expression ππ = π 1 π − π(ππ − π) ⇔ ππ = 1 π.π +π − 1 π.π . ππ ⇔ ππ = πΌ − π½. ππ Solving the monopolist problem: ππ = ππΆ ⇔ ⇔ π 1 π. π ππΆ = π 1 ππ = .π + π π. π π π 1 +π π. π π½= πΌ − 2. π½. ππ = π ⇔ πΌ − π½. ππ − π½. ππ = π ⇔ ππ − π½. ππ = π knowing that ππ = πΌ= , we have that: ππ = π + 1 π.π → π·π· π³πππ iv. There is free entry and exit in the long-run -> ππ = π΄πΆ ππ = π΄πΆ ⇔ ππ = π + knowing that ππ = π π , we have that: ππ = π + πΉ π πΉ ππ . π → πͺπͺ π³πππ v. Because every firm has the same cost structure and face the same demand, we conclude intuitively that ππ = π. It's important to note that, in this model, if we assume the same cost structure and the same demand for both countries, the only thing that changes from country to country is the size of the market (Q). By plotting both lines, CC and PP, we're able to compute the equilibrium price in the sector as well as the number of firms operating in that sector. ο Population Growth If there is a population growth in a country, meaning that the size of the market (Q) increases, it results in a price decrease and an increase in the number of firms. A price decrease implies a real wage π€ π increase An increase in the number of firms represent an increase in the variety of products Overall, consumer's utility increases due to an increase in the real wages and an increase in the variety of products (in this model, consumers value variety). ο Free Trade When two countries (H and F) start trading, what happens is that both markets start representing a single market, that is ππΉπ = ππ» + ππΉ . Graphically, we have that: (Assume that ππ» > ππΉ ) As we can see, price decreases and the number of varieties increase for both countries. So, we conclude that both countries are better off with trade than without trade. Note that we don't know where each firm is located under free trade, meaning that a firm can be in country H or country F. ο Migration Let's assume now that there is no free trade of goods but people can freely move from one country to another. Note that for migration to be possible we have to assume no free trade, otherwise both countries would be equal in terms of welfare, hence there would be no incentive to migrate. (A) Country H and F are equal, except that ππ» > ππΉ . d Under this context, ππΉ > ππ» and ππΉ < ππ» , meaning that π’πΉ < π’π» . Faced with this fact, people would start moving from country F to country H. In the end, the foreign country would disappear due to a total migration. (B) Country H and F are equal, except that ππ» > ππΉ and πΉπΉ < πΉπ» (in country F firms have a lower fixed cost than in country H). These differences are such that πΉπ» ππ» < πΉπΉ ππΉ - Recall CC line equation: π = π + πΉ π .π What we will obtain is a picture similar to the one above , in (A) , thus people would start to move from country F to H , that is, people would start migrating from the more efficient country (F) to the less efficient country (H), and so the more efficient country would disappear. Optimal policies and Non-economic Objectives(NEO) Now, we're going back to the H-O Model in order to study government interventions in the economy. Along this chapter we will always assume that there are Social Utility Functions (SUF). Furthermore, we are only going to consider the small country case, where ππππ. > π∗ (The small country exports Y and imports X). But, before studying the optimal policies and NEO for a country, it is important to know first what are the instruments available for the government to use. The government can use the following instruments: ο· Tariff(π) ο· Tax on production (π‘π ) ο· Tax on consumption (π‘π ) ο· Tax on factors (π‘π ) Tariff(π») - Assuming a tariff on imports (good X) First of all, I advise you to always keep in mind that if in the vertical axis is "X" instead of "Y" and in the horizontal axis is "Y" instead of "X", the graph will be completely different. However, the final conclusions must be identical. Secondly, note that the autarky equilibrium is no longer represented. Only the Free trade & Laissez Faire equilibrium (0) and the Tariff equilibrium (1). Laissez Faire equilibrium is the equilibrium without any type of government intervention. Analysis When there is no Tariff, the small country will produce at π0 and consume at πΆ0 , achieving a utility level of π’0 . When the Tariff is imposed we have to keep in mind two things : On the supply side, firms will face a higher price domestically (ππ ∗ > π∗ ) , although the interational prices remain the same (π∗ ) . Faced by this new domestic price, the economy will produce at π1 . On the demand side, consumer will also face this new domestic price , ππ ∗ . This means that the new consumption point is tangent to a utility curve, with slope ππ ∗ . Furthermore, we have to keep in mind that the international prices did not change, hence the economy will consume in a point along the CPF (consumption possibility frontier). This line correspond to the national production at international prices. Faced with these restrictions, the only possible point of consumption is πΆ1 . Concluding, when a Tariff is imposed, the small country will produce at π1 and consume at πΆ1 , achieving a utility level of ππ which is lower than ππ . This means that, in the small country case, FT is the optimal policy. Tax on production (ππ ) - Assuming a tax on the production of the imported good (X) Analysis A tax on production will induce producers to move away from the Free Trade equilibrium(π0 → π1 ). However, consumers will not be affected directly meaning that they will still face π = π∗ . The CPF will be similar to before (Tariff equilibrium) for the same reason. However the new consumption point is not equal as before because now consumers face a price π = π ∗ . This means that the new consumption point is a point tangent to a utility curve, with slope π ∗ ,which is the slope of the CPF. Basically, we can say that the new consumption point is located where the utility curve is tangent to the CPF. Furthermore, the economy is worse off with the imposition of a tax on production (π’1 < π’0 ) Tax on consumption (ππ ) - Assuming a tax on the consumption of the imported good (X) On the supply side, a tax on consumption will not affect producers since they face the same price as in the free trade equilibrium. That's why π0 = π1 . On the demand side, we have to keep in mind the reasoning made before: The CPF will be the one drawn above, since the international prices does not change (do not forget that we're in the small country case) Consumers face a domestic price different from the international prices (ππ‘∗π > π∗ ) , and so their utility is maximized when the utility curve is tangent to a point such that the slope is ππ‘∗π . The economy is worse off with the imposition of a tax on consumption (π’1 < π’0 ). Tax on factors (ππ ) - Assuming a tax on πΏπ₯ and X is K-intensive A tax on factors, mathematically speaking, is a little confusing. So, here we're only going to use intuition to explain it. Going back to the edgeworth box and the PPF: When a tax is imposed on πΏπ₯ , sector X wants to use more capital. That's why the contract curve changes. Furthermore, the imposition of a tax created a distortion on the factor markets, resulting in a contraction of the PPF. For the same price, the economy wants to produce less of X. On the demand side, it's equivalent to the tax on production. In the end, the economy lies on lower utility level. NOTE : To compute π·π , there is the need to make a few demonstrations that are not going to be shown here. The only thing we know is that, at π·π , the economy is producing less of X than initially. Equivalences There are some equivalences important for international trade, however they will not be proved here. 1. A subsidy is equivalent to a negative tax 2. A tariff is equivalent to tax consumption and production simultaneously (π = π‘π + π‘π ) 3. A uniform tax on factors (taxing capital and labor simultaneously) is equivalent to a tax of production. 4. A tax on imports is equvalent to a tax on exports NEO It might be the case that the government want to intervene in the economy, although knowing that the best policy is free trade. The government might have some non-economic objectives (NEO) : i. ii. iii. iv. Level of production (Ex: πππππ’ππ‘πππ π ≥ π ) Level of consumption ( Ex: πΆπππ π’πππ‘πππ π ≤ π ) Level of trade ( Ex: πΌπππ ≤ πΌ ) Level of employment ( Ex: πΏπ ≤ πΏ) Note: The restrictions will always be active (for example, πππππ’ππ‘πππ π = π). This happens because the more you tax the less welfare you attain, and here we're evaluating the less costly options. What we want to do here is to evaluate what is the less costly measure (in terms of welfare) for each of these NEO. (Still assume that πππ’π‘ . > π∗ ) i. (A) By using a tax on consumption As we've seen earlier, a tax on consumption will not change the production point on the PPF (π0 = π1 ). So, in the context of this NEO, the value of a tax on consumption is zero. (B) Tax on production A tax on production will attain the NEO! (C) Tariff By the equivalence that π = π‘π + π‘π , and knowing that a tax on consumption has zero value for this NEO --> Tariff is worse than a tax on production but better than a tax on consumption. With the Tariff we can also attain the NEO, however it's more costly than π‘π . So, until now we know that : π‘π β» π β» π‘π (D) Tax on factors By subsidizing πΏπ₯ ( or a negative tax on πΏπ₯ ) for example, we induce the economy to produce more of X , attaining the NEO. However, it is more costly than the tax on production, as shown in the graph below: As we can see π’2 < π’1 ⇒ π‘π β» π‘π οΆ For a NEO on production, the best option is a tax on production! ii. On this NEO the objective is to make the economy to consume at π = π . (A) Tax on consumption A tax on consumption will be able to attain the objective, as we can see in the picture above. (A) Tax on production Intuitively we know that a tax on production is more costly than a tax on consumption for this NEO. However, it is also able to attain the NEO, since changes in production will affect consumers. In the picture below it is demonstrated why a π‘π is more costly than π‘π ( it is because π’2 < π’1 ) (C) Tariff By the equivalence that π = π‘π + π‘π , and knowing that a tax on consumption is better than a tax on production, we conclude that the Tariff can also attain the NEO, however π‘π β» π β» π‘π (D) Tax on factors We've seen in the NEO on production that π‘π is more costly than a π‘π . However, if we try to compare π‘π and π‘π ,by drawing them on the same graph, we reach the concluisonn than a tax on production is equivalent than a tax on factor,that is π‘π ≈ π‘π . οΆ We can rank the measures analized above ( π‘π β» π β» π‘π ≈ π‘π ) and conclude that, for a NEO on consumption, the best option is a tax on consumption! iii. On this NEO we're not going to make any demonstration like we've done on the NEO above because it's difficult to compare them. However, intutitively, it is not difficult to reach the conclusion that a Tariff is the best policy for this NEO. First we have to realize what is this objective about: We want to decrease the imports of X. Knowing that πΌπππ₯ = πΆπ₯ − ππ₯ , what we want is to decrease the consumption of X, or increase the production of X, or do both simultaneously. So, knowing that a tax on consumption decreases πΆπ₯ , a tax on production increases ππ₯ ( as well as a tax on factors) and that a tariff do both simultaneously, it's obvious that the most efficient way to decrease imports is by imposing a Tariff! Below is the graph representing the imposition of a Tariff οΆ For a NEO on the level of imports, the best option is a Tariff! iv. On this NEO the objective is to make πΏπ₯ = πΏ. Before analyzing the effect of any type of taxation , there is the need to understand what means, graphically, that πΏπ₯ = πΏ. (Always assuming that X is K-intensive) Is is important to understand that any point of production that lies on the line above πΏ will attain the NEO. (A) Tax on consumption Again, a tax on consumption will not change πΏπ₯ since it does not affect production. So, in the context of this NEO, the value of a tax on consumption is zero. (B) Tax on production A tax on production will attain the NEO on the level of employment. (C) Tariff By the equivalence that π = π‘π + π‘π , and knowing that a tax on consumption has zero value for this NEO --> Tariff is worse than a tax on production but better than a tax on consumption. With the Tariff we can also attain the NEO, however it's more costly than π‘π . (D) Tax on factors --> Note that here we need to subsidize π³π Intuitively, we know that a tax on factors is capable of satisfying the NEO. However, we don't know if it's better or worse than a tax on production. We need to plot both solutions in the same graph and conclude which one is better: οΆ Because π’2 > π’1 , we conclude that ππ is the best instrument for a NEO on the level of employment! Summarizing all what we said before, the best instrument is always the one that directly affects the NEO! Immiserizing Growth (I.G) This chapter if all about what might happen if optimal policies are not followed. Here, we're only going to analyze the small country case. We know that the optimal policy in this case is Free trade, with no intervention of the government. However, let's see what might happen when a Tariff is imposed on imports (X) and an investment is made in sector X, with the idea of making the country grow, in terms of welfare (What we will see is that, actually, the welfare decreases). Assume that X is capital intensive and ΔπΎ > 0 ( Investment on sector X). Due to the Ryb. Theorem and because X is capital intensive, an increase in the capital endowment caused an expansion of the PPF biased towards X. How we can see π’2 < π’1 , that is, the utility level decreased when the investment was made. This is what we call immizerizing growth. However, it may not happen as well, as we're going to see next NOTE: The Rybczynski Line for capital tell us where the new production point is, when the PPF expands due to an increase in capital endowment. Note also that the line is negatively sloped. This happens because π π must increase and π π must decrease for the same relative prices, according to the Ryb.Theorem In the following example we can see that there is actually growth (π’2 > π’1 ) and a non-optimal policy is being followed: