Uploaded by Basic Econometrics

publication8

advertisement
12345665789*575+,-.
2334567689:;<;
18=9222>[email protected],968:B
/8445-6026.17
MNOPOQRSTRTUN
[email protected]/[email protected]/@[email protected]/[email protected][WZC*XW*324XC4\]C
\23G*2/[email protected]^C*4CGC^C
31,54H,+F_:+4H\,FXFX+.57.+6
`abcbdefghfgij
deklbmnoipcnqrsbcstubivedmgwkxtsybecsnwipzwciebkzdtdcdvdtvineskzwcieb
{|ccifs
dnb}eipbccieklbmnoipcnqrsbcst~fitisfckxtsybecsnwipzwciebkzdtdcdvdtvineskzwcieb
C€3G*C/G
‚ƒ„†‡ˆ‰Š„Š‹Œƒ‡Š ‡ƒƒŒ‹Ž‹ŽŠŒƒ„‘hifsi’bfitisffgdedfnbescnsfcstzdtrwd
rscnesfnip“detdnd“dhndnbdcdfdcbcnqrwo|cdmjbcs”bip•–—ebcmitrbtnc˜dcdtdjw”bro
hsmjbedtricdmjstvnbfgts™qb˜dcqcbrpiengbcdmjbcbjbfnsitdtr™qbcnsittdseb˜dc
qcbrnibjsfsnstpiednsitpeingbebcmitrbtncošing›eb™qbtfwdtr}befbtndvbcndnscnsfc˜beb
qcbrpierdnddtdjwcsco
^W]œ@*\35žŸž¡¢Ÿž£ž¤Ÿ¥¦§¦¨¥©Ÿžª£«¬
24G*@\Y/[email protected]
­§ª¤¢ª¥®¦¯¯«¯¢ª°§ª¢¤¨Ÿ¯¤žª¢±²¢±³¦ž´¢Ÿž¤¢£µž±µ¢¶ £µž±̈£¦§ª³§Ÿ¦ž£¥¦¯§£
±ž®¢ª¥¦§¦¨¥·¢ž·±¢§£¶ ¦¥ž¸¤§¹žª¤·žª¦§£Ÿ¢ £¢º¦¢£¥ž£·ªž«ª§¤¤¢ª¥´¢Ÿ§¨¥¢¸žª¢º¦¢£¥ž£
·ªž«ª§¤¥¦ž´¢¥¨ŸŸ¢¥¥¸¨±©¦¤¨¥¦¥¦§ª¦®¯¢ª¢¦¯¢·¢ž·±¢§ª¢¬»¯¨¥£¦¯¢¸¢±¶ž¸§«ªŸ¨±¦¨ª§±¢º¦¢£¥ž£
¥¦§¦¨¥·±§³¥§£ ¤·žª¦§£¦ªž±¢£¦¯¢¨£¶¢ª¥¦§£¶£«ž¸Ÿ±¢£¦¥§£¶·±§£££«ž¸¶¢µ¢±ž·¤¢£¦Ÿž£Ÿ¢ª£¥¬
»¯¢¤§¹žª¸§Ÿ¦žª§¸¸¢Ÿ¦£«§¶ž·¦ž£ž¸££žµ§¦µ¢¢Ÿž£ž¤Ÿ¥¦ª§¦¢«¢¥¥°©®¯Ÿ¯¥¤žª¢¤·žª¦§£¦
§¥§·ª¢¶Ÿ¦žª¦¯§£®žª±¶µ¢®§£¶§¦¦¦¨¶¢¦ž®§ª¶¥Ÿ¯§£«¢¬»¯¢«žž¶¥®¯Ÿ¯·¢ž·±¢¥¦ªµ¢¦ž§Ÿ¼¨ª¢
§¥¥žž£§¥¦¯¢³Ÿž¨±¶·ž¥¥´±³ž¸¸¢ª¢¶¦¯¢¤ ¦žŸ¯§£«¢®¦¯¦¤¢¦¯¢£¶Ÿ§¦žªž¸°§±¥žŸ¯§£«¢§¥
¦¯ž¥¢£¢¢¶¥Ÿ¯§£«¢¬
3GY\]C*WC
½§£¶³§¾¥¦ªŸ¦¯§¥´¢Ÿž¤¢ž£¢ž¸¦¯¢§«ªŸ¨±¦¨ª§±±³·ª¢¶ž¤£§£¦¶¥¦ªŸ¦¥£¿§ª£§¦§²§¥¦§¦¢§¸¦¢ª
£¦ªž¶¨Ÿ¦ž£ž¸¦¯¢ ªª«§¦ž£¥³¥¦¢¤ ¸ªž¤ ¦¯¢¿ª¥¯£§ª§¹§§«§ªª¢¥¢ªµžª¬À ¦¯¦¯¢¦¤¢±³§¶ž·¦ž£ž¸
¤·ªžµ¢¶ ¸§ª¤ ¤¢Ÿ¯§£Á§¦ž£©¦¯¢ª¢®§¥¥¨´¥¦§£¦§±±³ ¤§ª²¢¶ ¦ª§£¥¸žª¤§¦ž£ £ Ÿªž··£« ·§¦¦¢ª£©
Ÿž¤·ž¥¦ž£ž¸Ÿªž·¥©´¢¦¦¢ª«ªž®£³¢±¶±¢µ¢±©¨±¦¤§¦¢±³±¢§¶£«¦ž´¢¦¦¢ª¢Ÿž£ž¤ŸŸž£¶¦ž£¥ž¸¦¯¢
·¢ž·±¢¬Â¢£Ÿ¢§¥¦¨¶³®§¥Ÿž£¶¨Ÿ¦¢¶¦ž§¥¥¢¥¥¦¯¢¥¦§¦¨¥ž¸§«ªŸ¨±¦¨ª¢¤¢Ÿ¯§£Á§¦ž£§£¶·ªž·ž¥¢
¥¦ª§¦¢«¢¥¦ž¤·ªžµ¢§«ªŸ¨±¦¨ª¢·ª§Ÿ¦Ÿ¢¥¬
½§£¶³§¶¥¦ªŸ¦±¢¥´¢¦®¢¢£ÃÄÅ`Æǧ£¶ÃÃÅ{ÈÇ°§¥¦Éž£«¦¨¶¢§£¶`{Å`Êǧ£¶`ÊÅÈËÇ̞ª¦¯
ɧ¦¦¨¶¢¬»¯¢¶¥¦ªŸ¦ª¢Ÿ¢µ¢¥§£§µ¢ª§«¢§££¨§±ª§£¸§±±ž¸ÃÈȤ¤¬»¯¢Ÿ±¤§¦¢ž¸¦¯¢¶¥¦ªŸ¦
Ÿž¤·ª¥¢¥ž¸¤ž¶¢ª§¦¢¥¨¤¤¢ª¥Í½§ºÊÎÅÏЧ£¶¤ž¶¢ª§¦¢®£¦¢ª¥Í½ £{ÈÅÏЬ½§£¶³§¶¥¦ªŸ¦
Ÿž¤·ª¥¢¥ž¸Ã¦§±̈²¥¬»¯¢¦ž¦§±«¢ž«ª§·¯Ÿ§±§ª¢§ž¸¦¯¢¶¥¦ªŸ¦¥Ë©ÆÑ©{Ë˧©ž¨¦ž¸®¯Ÿ¯{©ÎÊ©ÈÄÃ
ÍÎȬÃÆÒЧ¸žª¤¥¦¯¢¥ž®£§ª¢§¬½žª¢¦¯§£¯§±̧ž¸¦¯¢¦ž¦§±±§£¶§ª¢§ £¦¯¢¶¥¦ªŸ¦¥·¨¦¦ž
§«ªŸ¨±¦¨ª§±¨¥¢¬»ž¦§±ªª«§¦¢¶§ª¢§¥`©`Ä©ÆÈ`§ž¨¦ž¸®¯Ÿ¯§ªž¨£¶ÑÑ©ÈÈÈÍÃά{ÃÒЯ§¥´¢£«
[email protected]=245+6.66E5??000FD8,575+,-.F8,3FG.2727+48E54+--577,595,55H+,62-=5H276,2A165H14H5,
6.5/,5+62D5/8II84C66,2A16284J2-54750.2-.E5,I26714,576,2-65H175>H276,2A16284+4H,5E,8H1-62Ó8Ô4
24+4KI5H21I>E,8D2H5H6.58,2324+=08,L27E,8E5,=K-265HF
2345677689)*686+,-.
/0012343567898
CDDCEFGHIJKLMNMOFEFDFPIFDQRPISTUVVVWFJKWHXFYFGZCDH[HDYQCDM\ZHDH[GQ]GZH^FPIC[CDDCEFGHI
JKQGZHD[QRD_H[^C̀HGFP`[UaH^^[FPIJQDHaH^^[MbCGZFGQGF^cQcR^FGCQPQ]SdMef^F`Z[UFDQRPIf^F`Z
cHQc^HFDHHXc^QKHICPGZHgEDC_R^GRDHOH_GQDM
@hijkl/2j
\QCIHPGC]KGZHOQ_CQmn_QPQXC_OGFGR[Q]GZH]FDXHD[CPoFPIKFIC[GDC_GM
[email protected]@[email protected]
\ZH[GRIKaF[_FDDCHIQRGCPoFPIKFIC[GDC_GULFDPFGF`FM\ZHIFGFaHDH_Q^^H_GHI]DQX SwV
]FDXHD[Mxyz{|}~z}€‚ƒ„‚H_QPQXC__ZFDF_GHDC[GC_[_QP[CIHDHI]QDGZHcRDcQ[HQ]GZC[[GRIKCP_^RIH
FEHU†__RcFGCQPUHIR_FGCQPF^UCP_QXHFPI]FDX [C‡HHG_M\ZHKaHDHXHF[RDHIR[CPEGZHˆHD_HPGFEH
XHGZQI[MbHCEZGHIO_QDCPEcFGGHDPFIQcGHI]QDGZC[aF[F[R[HIJK\DCYHIC‰SdTŠ‹aCGZ[^CEZG
XQIC]C_FGCQPF]GHD_QP[R^GCPEGZHHŒcHDGQ]GZH_QP_HDPHIIC[_Cc^CPHM
QGZXHFPFPI[GFPIFDIIHYCFGCQPFDHR[HIGQ_^F[[C]KGZHDH[cQPIHPG[CPGQGZDHH_FGHEQDCH[F[
]Q^^Qa[M
k+7649,Ž
*+546
Qa
H[[GZFP‰oHFP VMwefO‹
oHICRX
HGaHHP‰oHFP‘VMwefO‹
WCEZ
oQDHGZFP‰oHFP’VMwefO‹
*j0“tl0q1pp/0k“00/@1
\ZHDH[cQPIHPG[aHDHDH”RH[GHIGQIH[_DCJHGZHCD[Q_CQH_QPQXC__ZFDF_GHDC[GC_[U[R_ZF[FEHU
^HYH^Q]HIR_FGCQPFPIQ__RcFGCQPHG_UF[cDH[HPGHICP\FJ^HSMNH[R^G[[ZQa[GZFG•ŠfKHFD[aHDHS–MdU
ŠTGQfVKHFD[aHDHw–MS—UFPIFJQYHKHFD[aHDHfŠ—M\ZC[[ZQa[GZFG]QDGK[HYHPcHD_HPG‰w–MS—‹
V]GZHDH[cQPIHPG[]F^^aCGZCPGZHFEHJDF_`HGJHGaHHPŠTGQfVKHFD[M
\ZHHIR_FGCQPF^^HYH^Q]GZHDH[cQPIHPG[[ZQaHIGZFGeVMV— Q]GZH_F[[FYF]FDXHD[ZFYHPQ
]QDXF^HIR_FGCQPUeeMS— ZFYHcDCXFDKHIR_FGCQPUFPIŠfMV— ZFYH[H_QPIFDKHIR_FGCQPaZC^HSŠMT—
ZFYHˆ˜™HIR_FGCQPM†P^KdMŠ— aHDHšDFIRFGH›gJQYHHIR_FGCQPM˜PIHD^FPIZQ^ICPEGDFCGUŠfMV—
JH^QPEHIGQXFDECPF^_FGHEQDKUwfM–—FPISdMŠ—FDHCP[XF^^FPIJCE^FPIZQ^ICPE_FGHEQDKMoFœQDCGK
Q]GZH]FDXHD[JH^QPEHI[XF^^^FPIZQ^IHD[M†PGZHQ__RcFGCQPQ]GZHDH[cQPIHPG[UGZHDH[R^G[ZQa[GZFG
29:;<6=///>/88;6=/[email protected],=357B
ž
2345677689)*686+,-.
/0012343567898
CDEFG HIJKLMLNOHPQLPJNRMLSRTHMIRMSLMNUDVEWG RMLLPXRXLQYPZ[NYPLNNURPQ\E]G HIJKLIRMSLMN
RML^LM_ỲLEaKLIRSYbcJcOLHIJKLMLNOHPQLPJNNKHdLQJKRJFeEfG HIJKLIRMSLMNKR_LNYPXbLUV]EWG
KR_LTHYPJIRSYbcEgbbNRSObLQMLOHMJLQJKRJRXMỲ[bJ[MLYNJKLSRTHMNH[M`LHIJKLYMYP`HSLEaKLSRTHMYJc
VWE]G hLbHPXLQJHSLQY[SbL_LbYP`HSLUfFE\G RPQWEfG RMLYPbHdRPQKYXKYP`HSL`RJLXHMcE
i+A:6 72 jYNJMYh[JYHP HI JKL kRMSLMN R``HMQYPX JH JKLYM lLMNHPRb ^H`YHmn`HPHSỲ
`KRMR`JLMYNJỲNE
i,+378
o+7649,p
q,6r;65-p s6,-657
t46
uH[PXvwfVx
\V
DWE]
yYQQbLvfVmVex
zz
FWED
{bQv|VDx
F]
fVEe
}~;-+7395
bbYJLMRJL
\C
\eEe
lMYSRMc
fD
\\ED
€YXK^`KHHb
F]
fVEe
l‚
D]
DfEz
ƒMRQ[RJL„ghH_L
Df
]Ef
+5~†9:~354
yRMXYPRbvw\EVx
F]
fVEe
^SRbbv\EVDmVEex
zF
FVEW
ZYXv|VEDx
\W
D]Ef
@--;‡+7395
gXMỲ[bJ[ML
DDF
CDEF
Z[NYPLNN
\\
DVEW
^LM_ỲL
F
\E]
q+<3:pip‡6
^YPXbL
Vz
FeEf
ˆHYPJ
CF
V]EW
/5-9<6
‰HdvwDVeeex
FC
fFE\
yLQY[SvDVeeDmfeeeex
CD
VWE]
€YXKv|fVeeD
DD
WE]
q+,< s9Š6,
‹HRPckRMSlHdLM
]
zEF
Z[bbH`Œ‚RMJN
Wz
VFEf
aMR`JHMN
DF
DeEe
lHdLMaYbbLM
Dz
DDEF
l[SO^LJvjYLNLblLJMHbnbL`JMỲRbx
\V
DWE]
Ž+76,3+:s988688395 RQYH
D\e
CVED
a
DfW
]WE\
ZỲc`bL
D\C
]eEC
^`HHJLM
C\
VCE\
yHhYblKHPL
D\e
CVED
gXMỲ[bJ[MLJHHbN
WC
VVEf
‘’“”•–—˜™š›œ™žŸ™¡¢
aKLSRTHMYJcHIJKLMLNOHPQLPJNvVFEfGxOHNNLNNLQh[bbH`Œ‚RMJNIHbbHdLQhcvDWE]Gx
MLNOHPQLPJNKR_YPXl[SO^LJRPQvDDEFGxMLNOHPQLPJNKRQlHdLMaYbbLMUJMR`JHMvDeGxUvzEFGxPH
RPcIRMSOHdLMdLMLMLOHMJLQRNOHNNLNNYPXhcJKLMLNOHPQLPJNMLNOL`JY_LbcEyRJLMYRbOHNNLNNLQhcJKL
MLNOHPQLPJNdLMLRQYHvCVEDGxUav]WE\GxUZỲc`bLv]eECGxU^`HHJLMvVCE\GxUyHhYblKHPLvCVED
GxUgXMỲ[bJ[MLJHHbNvVVEfGxMLNOL`JY_LbcE
29:;<6=///>/88;6=/[email protected],=357B
£¤
2345677689)*686+,-.
/0012343567898
C+A:632DEFGHEIJGEKLKMGNOPQHROHFQSSKHTELUGKGNOEHVKSEKWXSKLKRESFGQGJFY
[email protected]/@=[[email protected]@\/Z0C]C^0
_`abc
Z+7649,d
e,6f;65-d
g6,-657+46
st
xrYr
h9ijk6:9i7lm nOFFGNQLopOQLqrYstuvVDw
s~
xtY
\6y3;< j78=7zm {OG|OOLopOQL}rYstuvVDw
ut
xƒY„
€34.j]A9679m pKHOGNQLopOQL‚rYstuvVDw
\6+5 78†8l 0‡ 3†z3
ˆ‰Š‹ŒŽ‘’“”•–—˜”™
šGEFO›ETOLGMHKRGNOœQIOtYœNQGRQžKHEGŸKMMQHROHFIOKLUOTGKNEUNFKSEKWOSKLKRESFGQGJF
oxƒY„ wMKK|OTIŸxr GKK|FKSEKWOSKLKRESFGQGJF¡|NEOxtY MQHROHF¢KFOTROTEJRFSKHO
SQGOUKHŸKMFKSEKWOSKLKRESFGQGJFY
[email protected]^0/@1
VKSEKWOSKLKRESSNQHQSGOHEFGESFELpQLTŸQTEFGHESGKM£QHLQGQ£QVGQGO|QFFGJTEOTYpKFGKMGNO
MQHROHF|OHORETTOQUOT¡RKFG|OHOOTJSQGOTGENEUNFSNKK¡QLTRKFGNQTFRQQLTNKTOHF¡
QUHESJGJHO|QFGNORQžKHKSSJ¢QGEKLGKRQLŸ¡RKFGNQTIJKS£FQLTROTEJRELSKRO|QFGNORQžKH
¢QHGNOHOY¤›OHQGNOFKSEKOSKLKRESFGQGJFKMGNOMQHROHF|QFNEUNY
*[e[*[1Z[0
„Y ¥¦§¨©ª«¬­¬®¯°°°±¬²³´µ¶·¸¹º¸»¨©·¼¶¸¶½¾ ½´ µ¸¶¿·½¨µÀ·»§¨·»¦ ¨Á½©¨¿¨Â¶» µ´·Â½·¸
ö¨½»·¿Ä¬ÅƐÇÈɘ—˜ÇÆʒ˜ËÌtƒotwÍtsqt~Y
tY η¾·Ï·©¦·»¨ª³¬­¬®¯°°Ð±¬²³´µ¶´WOSKLKRES SKLFGHQELGFQLT MJGJHO ¢HKF¢OSGFMKHSHK¢
¦¶¹¨©Â¶Ñ¶µ·½¶´» ¶» ¿¶»´©¶©©¶§·½¶´» µÀ¨¿¨ÂĪϴ©ÒÂÀ´Ó ´» µ©´Ó ¦¶¹¨©Â¶Ñ¶µ·½¶´»ª
ÔKKRIKY
29:;<6=///>/88;6=/[email protected],=357B
ÕÖ
Download