Economics 248 Assignment 1 (version A) 92.5% This assignment has a maximum total of 100 marks and is worth 10 percent of your total grade for this course. You should complete it after completing your coursework for units 1, 2, and 3. Answer each question clearly and concisely. 1. 10/10Use the data below to answer the questions that follow. (10 marks) Item Amount (in billions of dollars) Consumption expenditure 300 Government expenditure 99 Interest and investment income 31 Profit of corporations and government enterprises 54 Income from farms and unincorporated businesses 40 Gross investment 146 Exports 36 Imports 56 Wages, salaries, and supplementary labour income 275 Capital consumption allowance (depreciation) 50 Indirect taxes, less subsidies 75 a. Calculate net exports. Nx = N - X = 36 - 50 = -20 (1 mark) b. Use the expenditure approach to calculate GDP. C + I + G + (N - M) 300 + 146 + 99 + (36 - 56) = ECON 248v9 Assignment 1A January 25, 2019 300 + 146 + 99 + (- 20) = 525 (2.5 marks) c. Use the income approach to calculate GDP. Wages, salaries, and supplementary labour income + Income from farms and unincorporated businesses + Profit of corporations and government enterprises + Interest and investment income + depreciation + indirect taxes, less subsides 275 + 40 + 54 + 31 + 50 + 75 = 525 (2.5 marks) d. Calculate net domestic product (at factor cost). Wages, salaries, and supplementary labour income + Income from farms and unincorporated businesses + Profit of corporations and government enterprises + Interest and investment income 275 + 40 + 54 + 31 = 400 (2 marks) e. Calculate net domestic income (at market price). Net domestic product (at factor cost) + indirect taxes, less subsides 400 + 75 = 475 (2 marks) 2. Consider the circular flow model for Doneville economy. In 2015, flow A was $53.0 billion, flow B was $31.0 billion, flow C was $13.0 billion, and flow E was $3.0 billion. (10 marks) 10/10 ECON 248v9 Assignment 1A January 25, 2019 Calculate the following (show and explain your work): a. GDP In 2015, flow A was $53.0 billion, flow B was $31.0 billion, flow C was $13.0 billion, and flow E was $3.0 billion. Y = C + I + G + (N - M) is the equation to calculate GDP. In the circular flow diagram flow A is Y, aggregate income (income paid to households by firms); flow B is C, consumption (household’s consumption spending); flow C is G, government expenditure on goods and services; flow E is Nx, Net exports (firms sell and receive goods from the rest of the world). We have all the information above to calculate GDP through the aggregate expenditure approach using the equation above, if we first solve for I, to get the value of investment that year. However, we already know that GDP is $53.0 billion. This is because aggregate income equals aggregate expenditure, which equals GDP. We already know the aggregate income in 2015 is $53.0 billion. Therefore GDP is $53.0 billion. (5 marks) b. Investment expenditure Y = C + I + G + NX is our equation to calculate GDP; we rearrange the equation to solve for I. I = Y - C - G - NX I = 53 - 31 - 13 - 3 = 6; Investment expenditure was 6 billion in 2015. We can calculate GDP using the expenditure approach now: GDP = C + I + G + NX = 31 + 6 + 13 + 3 = and we get 53 billion. Same as the given aggregate income. (5 marks) 3. In January 2015, the Zanzi economy had an unemployment rate of 5.9 percent. In August 2016, the unemployment rate was 8.7 percent. (10 marks) 10/10 a. Predict what happened to unemployment between January 2015 and August 2016, if the labour force was constant. The unemployment rate is calculated by the number of people unemployed divided by the labour force, and multiplied by 100. Between 2015 and 2016, the unemployment rate in Zanzi increased, from 5.9 percent to 8.7 percent. If the labour force remained constant during this time, then it must be the case that the number of people unemployed increased. (2.5 marks) b. In part a, what happened to employment? Explain. ECON 248v9 Assignment 1A January 25, 2019 The labour force consists of both unemployed and employed people. If the labour force remained constant in part a, and the number of people unemployed increased, then it must be the case that there was a decrease in employment. The people in the “employed” category of the labour force moved into the “unemployed” category of the labour force. The labour force as a whole remained unchanged (no one entered or left the labour force). (2.5 marks) c. Predict what happened to the labour force between January 2015 and August 2016, if unemployment was constant. The unemployment rate is calculated by the number of people unemployed divided by the labour force, and multiplied by 100. Between 2015 and 2016, the unemployment rate in Zanzi increased, from 5.9 percent to 8.7 percent. If unemployment was constant, then it must be the case that the labour force decreased. (2.5 marks) d. In part c, what happened to labour force participation rate? Explain. The labour force participation rate is calculated as the labour force divided by the working-age population, multiplied by 100. As in part c, if unemployment was constant, and the labour force decreased, the labour force participation rate would also decrease. There are less people in the labour force, and if we divide that by the working age population (held constant), the labour force participation rate, by percent, would decrease accordingly. (2.5 marks) 4. The people on Rabuti Island buy only fish and cloth. The CPI basket contains the quantities bought in 2014. The average household spent $120 on fish and $60 on cloth in 2014, when the price of fish was $2 per kilogram, and the price of cloth was $5 per metre. In 2015, fish was $4 per kilogram, and cloth was $6 per metre. (10 marks) 10/10 a. Calculate the CPI basket and the percentage of the household’s budget spent on fish in 2014. In 2014, the average household spent $120 on fish and $60 on cloth. The price of fish in 2014, the reference base year, was $2 per kilogram. As such, it must be the case that the CPI basket contains ($120 / $2) 60 kilograms of fish. The price of cloth in 2014, the reference base year, was $5 per metre. So, it must be the case that the CPI basket also contains ($60 / $5) 12 metres of cloth. Furthermore, in 2014 the average household spent $120 on fish and $60 on cloth, with the total budget of 180. The percentage of the household budget spent on fish is (120 / 180) x 100 = 66.7% in 2014. ECON 248v9 Assignment 1A January 25, 2019 (4 marks) b. Calculate the CPI in 2015. To find the CPI in 2015, we have to first calculate the cost of the CPI basket in 2014 and 2015. The formula to get the CPI in 2015 is: CPI = (Cost of CPI basket in current year prices / Cost of CPI basket in base year prices) x 100. The cost of the CPI basket in 2014 was (120 + 60) = $180 and the cost of the CPI basket in 2015, with the new prices used at the same quantities, was (240 + 72) = $312. CPI in 2015 = (312 / 180) x 100 = is 173.3 (3 marks) c. Calculate the inflation rate in 2015. The inflation rate in 2015 = [(CPI in 2015 - CPI in 2014) / (CPI in 2014)] x 100 = [(173.3 - 100) / (100)] x 100 = is 73.3 percent. (3 marks) 5. Canadian GDP growth was 1.1 percent in 2015 and is expected to edge down slightly in 2016 due to the persistent low price of oil, which hurts investment in the oil sector. The loonie is expected to remain weak vis-à-vis the US dollar, but the growth of US GDP is expected to slow down in 2016 due to a weak energy sector, a strong dollar, and turmoil overseas. (10 marks) a. Use the expenditure approach for calculating Canada’s GDP to explain how a weaker loonie might affect the growth of the Canadian economy. Also, how is a slow-down in US economic growth expected to affect the GDP growth of Canada? 2.5/5 The expenditure approach for calculating GDP follows as, GDP = C + I + G + (X-M). A weaker loonie would affect household consumption, investment, government spending and potentially also imports and exports. This would have a positivenegative affect for on the growth of the Canadian economy overall. Household consumption would be impacted as the price of foreign goods and services would rise for consumers, due to higher input costs for businesses. Export growth is also a key part of GDP, and a weaker loonie would impact this.how? weaker loonie – more exports – higher Cdn GDP growth Investments would be impacted, particularly international investments, which a weaker currency would effect. Further, the Canadian government will have to pay more when manning its debts with the U.S. and other countries. Moreover, any good that is stabilized with the U.S. dollar would become more expensive for Canada and its citizens. A slow-down in US economic growth would affect the GDP growth of Canada in significant ways as the U.S. is Canada’s largest trading partner, and many goods (like gasoline) are pegged to the U.S. dollar for Canadians. A slow-down of the U.S. economy would spill over to Canada, and would be felt in all the sectors mentioned above that make up Canada’s ECON 248v9 Assignment 1A January 25, 2019 overall GDP. Imports may be less expensive if the U.S. has an economic downturn, but overall, a slow-down of the U.S. economy and GDP growth rate would inevitably lead to a slow-down of Canada’s GDP growth rate through consumption, investment, government spending as well as exports and imports coming in and out of the U.S.yes (5 marks) b. Why might Canada’s recent GDP growth rates overstate the actual increase in the level of production taking place in Canada? 1/ 2.5 The GDP is the market value of the final goods and services produced in a given economy in a specific time frame. GDP growth rate measures the GDP of a previous quarter against the GDP in the current quarter, and is seen as a marker of economic growth. However, Canada’s GDP growth rates might overstate the actual increase in the level of production because the measureswouldn’t this be understating GDP growth as production is included in GDP only when it is sold [C + I + G + (X-M)] may not take into account parts of the economy that are not running so smoothly or areas that are not in equilibrium. For example, Canada may produce a large amount of a good to export to another country, but may not be able to sell that good abroad at a sufficient quantity, and would have a surplus in that market. So while it may look like Canada has produced a good, it is not able to benefit from it due to disequilibrium in the market. Issues due to inefficiencies within the components that make up GDP may result in overstating the actual level of production. GDP omits the value of home production (2.5 marks) c. Explain the complications involved with attempting to compare the economic welfare in Canada and the United States by using the GDP for each country. 2.5/2.5 Using GDP as a measure of economic welfare when comparing nations can be problematic for a couple of reasons. First, the individual GDPs of nations are measured in their own currencies and dollar values. Canada uses its own Canadian dollar when valuing its GDP, and the U.S. uses the American dollar when calculating its GDP. In order to get an accurate comparison, we must first convert the GDPs we are comparing into a common currency. Additionally, Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) would have to be taken into account when looking at GDP as a way to indicate economic welfare in both countries. The goods and services in both countries would have to be valued at equivalent prices. What one is able to purchase (and benefit from) with their given income in Canada may not be equivalent to what a person can purchase in the U.S. The GDPs of both countries cannot be taken at face value when examining economic welfare. There would have to be further evaluation involved to obtain an accurate picture when comparing the two countries. (2.5 marks) 6. Suppose a country reported the following data for July 2015: 10/10 Labour force: 19,438,500 Employment: 18,002,700 Working-age population: 28,695,400 (10 marks) ECON 248v9 Assignment 1A January 25, 2019 Calculate the following: a. Unemployment rate The unemployment rate is calculated by the number of people unemployed divided by the labour force, and multiplied by 100; Labour force minus employment gives us the number of people unemployed: 19,438,500 - 18,002,700 = 1,435,800. (1,435,800 / 19,438,500) x 100 = 7.4% is the unemployment rate. (2.5 marks) b. Labour force participation rate The labour force participation rate is calculated as the labour force divided by the working-age population, multiplied by 100: (19,438,500 / 28,695,400) x 100 = 67.7% is the Labour force participation rate. (2.5 marks) c. Employment-to-population ratio The employment-to-population ratio is calculated as the number of people employed divided by the working-age population, multiplied by 100: (18,002,700 / 28,695,400) x 100 = 62.7 % is the employment-to-population ratio. (2.5 marks) d. If the unemployment rate was 6.2 percent in July 2014, did the unemployment decrease or increase in 2015? Explain any two factors that could be responsible for this change in unemployment. If the unemployment rate was 6.2 percent in July 2014, and then was 7.4 percent in July 2015 (see part a), the unemployment increased in 2015. Two factors that could be responsible for this change include 1) reasons of frictional unemployment. For example, there may be a number of recent graduated students searching for work, and are temporarily unemployed. 2) reasons of structural unemployment. For example, technological advances have caused unemployment in a popular industry. (2.5 marks) 7. If the nominal GDP is $324 billion in the base year, and it falls to $320 billion in year 1 and rises to $345 billion in year 2, calculate the real GDP in each year, given that the price index has fallen from 100 in the base year to 96.5 in year 1 and risen to 108.3 in year 2. If the price index 5 years before the base year was 72.2, and the nominal GDP for 5 years before the base year was $215.0 billion, calculate the real GDP for that year. Show your work in all cases. 10/10 Base Year: Nominal GDP = 324 billion; Price Index = 100 - Real GDP Base Year = (Nominal GDP/ Price Index) x 100 = (324/ 100) x 100 = 324 billion ECON 248v9 Assignment 1A January 25, 2019 - Real GDP in the Base Year is the same as Nominal GDP in the Base year. Year 1: Nominal GDP = 320 billion; Price Index = 96.5 - Real GDP in Year 1 = (Nominal GDP/ Price Index) x 100 = (320/ 96.5) x 100 = 331.6 billion Year 2: Nominal GDP = 345 billion; Price Index = 108.3 - Real GDP in Year 2 = (Nominal GDP/ Price Index) x 100 = (345/ 108.3) x 100 = 318.6 billion Nominal GDP 5 years before Base Year = 215 billion Price Index 5 years before Base Year = 72.2 Real GDP 5 years before = (Nominal GDP/ Price Index) x 100 = (215/ 72.2) x 100 = 297.9 billion (10 marks) 8. 10/10Classify the following items and scenarios as consumption or investment goods. Justify your answers. (10 marks) a. The Mackenzie pipeline This is a clear example of an investment good. The pipeline is intended to create more value and wealth than the original monetary amount that was put into building it. Building a pipeline is creating infrastructure that can transport a valuable commodity, oil, and continue to create greater wealth. It also helps society by creating more jobs (and wealth) in the energy sector. (2 marks) b. A loaf of bread This is arguably a consumption good, because the purchase of a loaf of bread generally ends there. The money is transferred from the consumer to the bakery from which the bread is bought, the bread is eaten by the consumer, and that is the end of that. This could be an investment good if the loaf was not bought for final consumption (ie. made into a sandwich by a cafe, to sell), but if it was bought for final consumption it is a consumption good. (2 marks) c. A pair of scissors bought by a hairdresser from the Ace Beauty Supply Company ECON 248v9 Assignment 1A January 25, 2019 This is an investment good. The pair of scissors will be used as a tool by the hairdresser to generate a return on the investment. By paying for the scissors once, and then using them repeatedly to give haircuts, the hairdresser continues to earn a profit on the initial purchase of scissors. (2 marks) d. A tennis racquet This is a consumption good. The tennis racquet, purchased by an ordinary person, is not meant to generate further revenue on the initial deposit of money. It is a purchase for entertainment and to start a new hobby. The money goes from the consumer to the tennis racquet making company and ends there. No further returns expected, ordinarily (unless the tennis player is Serena Williams, who is going to win the Wimbledon in an exception case). (2 marks) e. The money spent to stay at the Hilton Hotel by a Canadian couple visiting Hawaii This is arguably a consumption good. Spending money on a hotel during a vacation transfers the consumer’s money from the consumer to the hotel. There is no return on the monetary value spent. One can argue that a vacation is an investment, because a relaxing vacation can make a person more productive at work post-vacation and throughout the year. However, there is a strong argument that this is a consumption good, because there is no tangible expected return on the money spent. (2 marks) 9. According to UNESCO’s 2011 report, two-thirds of African children are locked out of secondary school. If governments were to provide good schools and encourage children to take advantage of them, answer the following questions. (10 marks) a. Describe any two ways in which greater education opportunities could lead to faster economic growth. 2.5/2.5 Economic growth is affected by labour productivity. Labour productivity in the modern age comes three sources: physical capital growth, human capital growth and technological advances. The first way that greater education opportunities could lead to faster economic growth is by enhancing human capital. Children can become educated and become skilled human capital. This would lead to economic growth, higher incomes and a higher standard of living. Second, greater education opportunities would lead to greater technological advances, as educated individuals in that society would have the ability to create greater and newer technological outputs. They would also be skilled in how to use such technology, and technology increases productivity. Productivity increases standard of living and economic growth. (2.5 marks) b. 2.5/2.5 Explain what will happen to potential GDP. Growth of the supply of labour and growth of labour productivity cause potential GDP to grow. Through education, both the supply of labour (more people equipped to work) and labour productivity (more highly skilled workers) will grow, and as a result, potential GDP will ECON 248v9 Assignment 1A January 25, 2019 increase. As there is an increase in technology, human capital and an increase in the workforce, the aggregate production function will shift upwards and potential GDP will be greater. (2.5 marks) c. Explain what will happen to employment. 1/ 2.5 Employment will increase due to higher demand for labouras human capital and technological advances continue to increase. People will have the skills necessary to provide value in jobs, and the skills as well as resources to create businesses. The supply and demand of labour in the labour market is determined by the real wage rate. The real wage rate would increase in a society with educated individuals and all the factors of labour productivity present. Thus, employment would increase overtime in the labour market, as quantity of labour and the real wage rate would increase and reach equilibrium. (2.5 marks) d. Explain what will happen to real wage rate. 2.5/2.5 The real wage rate adjusts so that the labour market is in equilibrium. There are surpluses and shortages in the labour market, just as in any other market. The real wage rate in this situation would increase until it reaches equilibrium. As the society becomes more productive, and the supply and demand of the quantity of labour increases (both curves shift to the right), the real wage rate will increase due to higher demand for labouraccordingly. (2.5 marks) 10. The following table presents the data for an economy when the government’s budget is balanced. (10 marks) Real interest rate Loanable funds demanded Loanable funds supplied (percent per year) (billions of 2007 dollars) (billions of 2007 dollars) Savings Investments 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 a. What is a balanced budget, and why does it matter? 2/2 ECON 248v9 Assignment 1A January 25, 2019 A balanced government budget is when government revenues are equal to the government’s expenditures. In the case of a balanced budget, a budget deficit or surplus are not present, as the budget is balanced and income equals expenditure. It matters because the government’s budget has an impact on the economy overall in terms of investments, interest rates and private savings. The government budget could likely influence each of these in significant ways. For example, some argue that a balanced budget lowers interest rates and increases investment. In economics, we know that government surpluses and deficits decrease and increase interest rates, respectively, and influence private activity in the loanable funds market. (2 marks) b. Calculate the equilibrium real interest rate, investment, and private saving. Why is this interest rate referred to as equilibrium? 2/2 The equilibrium real interest rate is 4%, as the loanable funds demanded and the loanable funds supplied are equal at that interest rate, both at 6.0. The level of investment and private saving is 6.0 billion at the equilibrium real interest rate, and they both equal each other. (2 marks) c. If planned saving increases by $2 billion at each real interest rate, explain the change in the real interest rate and investment. 1/ 2 If planned saving increased by 2 billion at each real interest rate, the equilibrium real interest rate would decreaseyes from 4% to 2% and the equilibrium investment would increasedecrease from 6.0 billion to 4.0 billion. (2 marks) d. If planned investment increases by $1 billion at each real interest rate, explain the change in saving and the real interest rate. 1/ 2 If planned investment increased by $1 billion, the equilibrium real interest rate would increaseyes from 4% to 5% and the equilibrium planned saving would increasedecrease from 6.0 billion to 5.0 billion. (2 marks) e. If both planned savings and planned investment increase by $1 billion at each real interest rate, explain the change in the real interest rate and equilibrium quantity of loanable funds. Sketch your answer using the diagram of the model for loanable funds market. 2/2 If both planned savings and planned investment increase by $1 billion, the real interest rate would remain the same, at the 4% rate. The equilibrium quantity of loanable funds would change, and would increase to 7.0 billion. The graph below shows the shift rightward in the supply and demand curves in red, the constant 4% real interest rate, and the change in quantity from 6 to 7 billion. ECON 248v9 Assignment 1A January 25, 2019 (2 marks) Real interest rate S2 4% D2 6% ECON 248v9 7% Assignment 1A Quantity of Loanable Funds January 25, 2019