Office Use Only Summer School B 2019 Faculty of Business and Economics TEST CODE: ECS3121 TITLE OF PAPER: Economics of International Trade and Finance TEST DURATION: 2 hours writing time READING TIME: 10 minutes THIS PAPER IS FOR STUDENTS STUDYING AT:( tick where applicable) Berwick Learning Caulfield Parkville Clayton Malaysia Gippsland Peninsula Other (specify) Off Campus Learning Open Enhancement Studies Sth Africa During an exam, you must not have in your possession, a book, notes, paper, electronic device/s, calculator, pencil case, mobile phone, smart watch/device or other material/item which has not been authorised for the exam or specifically permitted as noted below. Any material or item on your desk, chair or person will be deemed to be in your possession. You are reminded that possession of unauthorised materials, or attempting to cheat or cheating in an exam is a discipline offence under Part 7 of the Monash University (Council) Regulations. No exam paper or other exam materials are to be removed from the room. AUTHORISED MATERIALS OPEN BOOK YES X NO CALCULATORS X YES NO SPECIFICALLY PERMITTED ITEMS if yes, items permitted are: Instructions: 1. 2. i. ii. YES X NO Answer all questions On the answer booklet indicate Your full name Your student number Page 1 of 10 Question One Answer questions I-V based on the following diagram of a country in international trade equilibrium Figure 1: EB represents the country’s PPF (production possibility frontier) in autarky; FB represents the post-trade CPF (consumption possibility frontier) I. This country has comparative advantage in good a. S b. T c. Y d. Z II. Upon opening up for trade (equilibrium), this country produces at point a. B b. C c. D d. E III. In post-trade equilibrium, this country consumes at point a. B b. C c. D d. E IV. Exports for this country equal a. OA units of Z b. AB units of Z c. AC units of Y. d. AD units of Y. Page 2 of 10 V. Imports for this country equal a. OA units of Z b. AB units of Z c. AC units of Y d. AD units of Y. Question Two Which of the following is not a reason for increasing opportunity costs? a. for the nation to produce more of a commodity, it must use resources that are less and less suited in the production of the commodity b. factors of production are not homogeneous c. technology differs among nations d. factors of production are not used in the same fixed proportion in the production of all commodities Question Three Mutually beneficial trade cannot occur if production frontiers are: a. different but tastes are the same b. equal but tastes are not c. the same and tastes are also the same. d. different and tastes are also different Question Four: The equilibrium price and quantity for a commodity traded between two nations occurs where: a. the slopes of the two offer curves is equal to zero b. the slopes of the two offer curves are the same. c. the two offer curves intersect d. the price ratio of good X for good Y is equals one. Question Five The H-O model extends the classical trade model by: a. explaining the basis for comparative advantage b. examining the effect of trade on factor prices c. both (a) and (b) d. neither (a) nor (b) Question Six According to the H-O model, trade reduces international differences in: a. neither relative nor absolute factor prices b. absolute but not relative factor prices c. relative but not absolute factor prices d. both relative and absolute factor prices (15 Marks) Page 3 of 10 Question Seven We discussed a number of current International economic problems in our first lecture. Mention four of them and explain how these problems can affect South Africa through a. Employment b. Investment c. Trade (10 Marks) Answer The following were the current problems discussed in class. Candidate should explain how each of the 4 mentioned problems are affects investments, employment and trade. Award 1 mark each for correctly mentioning the problems and 2 marks each for explaining how each problem affects South Africa through employment, investments and trade. Note that the student may mention factors outside the provided list. Inform me if you are not sure of a mentioned problem by student Trade Protectionism in Industrial Countries Excessive Fluctuations and Large Disequilibria in Exchange Rates Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economies High Structural Unemployment and Slow Growth in Europe and Stagnation in Japan Energy and environmental problems in Africa Mediocre growth in the important economies in Africa Deep Poverty in Many Developing Countries Drought and famine in Africa Geopolitical tensions in Asia Protectionists leaders (e.g. Pres. Trump) Rise of populism and intolerance. Brexit and spillovers to Europe and world economy Slow commodity prices recovery and effects on African economies. Question Eight a. For two nations, describe how the autarky market conditions for a commodity should tell us the direction of trade flow after they open up for trade. Illustrate with the relevant diagram. (10 Marks) Answer Award 4 marks to well labelled diagram similar to the one below. Page 4 of 10 Award the rest of the six marks according to the following points Autarky equilibrium price of commodity X in Nation 1 (P1) is lower than that for Nation 2 (P2) With free trade, there will be added demand of X in Nation 1 from Nation 2. At a relative price greater than P1, Nation 1’s excess supply of X (Panel A) gives rise to Nation 1’s international supply curve of X (S in Panel B). At a relative price lower than P3, Nation 2’s excess demand for X (Panel C) gives rise to Nation 2’s demand for imports of X (D in Panel B). With free trade, international equilibrium price lies between the autarky prices of commodity X in both countries. In our illustration, this occurs at price P2 (Panel B. Thus P2 is equilibrium-relative commodity price with trade where quantity of imports demanded equal quantity of exports supplied b. Let country’s A endowment of labour equal 200 and country B’s endowment of labour equals 200. The number of units of labour required to produce 1 unit of X in country A equals 5, and the number of units of labour required to produce 1 unit of Y in country A equals 4. The number of units of labour required to produce 1 unit of X in nation B equals 4, and the number of units of labour required to produce 1 unit of good Y in B equals 8. i. Which country has an absolute advantage in which good(s)? Why? (2 Marks) Answer Country A B Labor Requirement X Y 5 4 4 8 Labor Endowment 200 200 Country A has absolute advantage in Y since it is more efficient in producing it compared to Country B. Likewise, Country B has absolute advantage in X since it uses fewer hours to produce it compared to country A. Page 5 of 10 ii. If free trade were allowed according to absolute advantage framework, what degree of productive specialization would occur? Why? How much of each good will be produced? (4 Marks) Answer Under the absolute advantage framework, Country A should specialize commodity Y and Country B should specialize in commodity X. (1 Mark) Both countries completely specializes because the absolute advantage theory assumes constant opportunity costs. Full specialization and exchanging should provide the nations with the best welfare. (1.5 Marks) Country A fully specializes and produces 50Y for exchange with Country B whilst Country B produces 50X. (1.5 Marks) iii. Answer the questions in parts (ii) and (iii) using the principle of comparative advantage instead of absolute advantage. (6 Marks) Answer Opportunity cost of producing commodity X (note that candidate can use smallest absolute disadvantage method, mark accordingly) (1 Mark) Opportunity cost of X in Country A=50/40=1.25 Opportunity cost of X in Country B=25/50=0.5 (2 Marks) Country B has a lower opportunity cost in production of X. Since we are dealing with a 2-country -2-commodity framework, country A assumes opportunity cost in the production of Y. (2 Marks) Similar to (ii) both countries completely specializes because the comparative advantage theory assumes constant opportunity costs. Full specialization and exchanging should provide the nations with the best welfare. Country A fully specializes and produces 50Y for exchange with Country B whilst Country B produces 50X. (1 Mark) iv. How does your answer in (ii) and (iii) differ from those in (iv)? Why? (3 Marks) Answer Award marks according to similar arguments presented below Both theories arrives at the same conclusion, however absolute advantage considers productivity based on absolute differences in efficiencies. Thus, all you need to know is labour input productivity. Comparative advantage considers relative efficiency or opportunity costs. Here you need to know relative outputs given labour inputs. Thus even if one country has an absolute advantage in producing all goods, comparative advantages still allows the nations to benefit from trade. Page 6 of 10 Question Nine a. Why does trade lead to specialization in production? Explain why specialization is complete in presence of constant opportunity costs and incomplete when opportunity costs are increasing. Illustrate with relevant diagrams. (13 marks) Answer Award 3 marks each for a diagram and 7 marks for explanation similar to the one below. Trade allows countries to identify their commodity of comparative advantage (commodities that they can relatively produce efficiently). Thus with trade, it is rational for nations to specialize in the production of commodities with lower opportunity costs. In the case of constant opportunity cost, resources either are perfect substitutes for each other or used in fixed proportion in production of both commodities, and all units of the same factor are homogeneous. The price differences remain unchanged and hence nations can completely without losing its comparative advantage; thus the use of straight line PPF as shown below; In the case of increasing opportunity cost, as countries specializes, production costs rises since factors are not either homogenous or perfect substitutes. As specialization continues, relative commodity prices move towards each other until they become identical in both nations. Upon price equalization, it does not pay either nation to continue to expand production of the commodity of its comparative advantage else they lose their advantages; thus the use of concave PPF as shown below. Page 7 of 10 b. Using a set of offer curves explain how equilibrium terms of trade is reestablished (in a two-country/two-commodity world) if one of the countries decides to charge a relative price higher than the world equilibrium relative price. (12 Marks) Answer Award 5 marks for diagram similar to the one below and 7 marks for explanation similar to the one given With this illustration, there exists one relative commodity price that trade is balanced. This occurs at a price of PX/PY=PB=1 and exchange of 60X for 60Y. Beyond this price, trade imbalance would result; excess demand/ supply should bring us back to equilibrium conditions. The diagram above (or similar offer curves) can be used to illustrate how equilibrium is restored if one nation prices its export higher than world equilibrium price. For instance, at a higher price of PF’ =2, Nation 2 wants to export 40Y but Nation 1 wants to import in excess of the initial equilibrium volume (this occurs where price line of PX/PY=2 (extrapolate this line) meets Nation 1 offer curve). The excess surplus pushes the price back to equilibrium where Nation 2 exports 60Y and Nation 2 imports this 60 Y. Question Ten a. Define the terms labour-intensive commodity and capital Intensive commodity. Suppose in a hypothetical country X, 1 unit of textile can be produced using 10 units of capital and 10 units of labour, while 1 unit of cellphone requires 8 units of capital and 2 units of labour. Which commodity is labour intensive and which is capital intensive? Is it possible to predict the pattern of trade based on the Heckscher-Ohlin (H-O) model? Explain your answer .(4 Marks) Answer In a two-commodity, two factor world, commodity Y is capital intensive and X is labour intensive if the capital-labor ratio (K/L) used Page 8 of 10 in the production of Y is greater than K/L used in the production of X. (1 mark) K/L of textile=10/10=1; K/L of cell-phone =8/2=4- Cell phone is capital intensive whilst textile is labour intensive. (1 mark) It is not possible to predict trade based on the H-O model since we also require factor abundance of two nations: A nation will export the commodity whose production requires the intensive use of the nation’s relatively abundant and cheap factor and import the commodity whose production requires the intensive use of the nation’s relatively scarce and expensive factor. (2 marks) b. Suppose that Congo has abundant labour and scarce capital relative to South Africa. Assume that coffee is labour intensive relative to automobiles and that the other HO assumptions of the 2x2x2 framework holds. i. Show diagrammatically how the PPFs for the two countries differ and explain how that creates the possibility for the mutual beneficial trade between them. Illustrate changes in welfare gains as the two economies moves from autarky to free trade.(10 Marks) Answer Diagram should be similar to below. Let X be coffee and Nation 1 represents Congo. Let Y be automobiles and Nation 2 represents South Africa. The PPF for Congo should be skewed along the coffee axis, indicating abundance of Coffee in Congo compared to South Africa. On the other hand, the PPF of South Africa should be skewed along the automobile axis, indicating abundance of automobiles in South Africa compared to Congo. Award a maximum of 4 marks for a well-labelled diagrams and 6 marks for explanation similar to the one below Since Congo has more labour and coffee is labour intensive, Congo can specialize in coffee and exchange it for automobiles the capital-intensive good from South Africa, who has more capital. In autarky, Congo optimizes consumption and production of coffee and automobiles at point A and the slope of the tangent through that point (PA=Pcoffee/Pautomobiles) determines the Page 9 of 10 relative price (opportunity cost) of coffee at that point. Similarly, South Africa optimizes consumption of coffee and automobiles at point A’ and the slope of the tangent PA’ determines the relative price of coffee in South Africa. Since PA < PA’, relative price of coffee in Congo is lower than that in South Africa. Thus Congo has a lower opportunity cost in the production of coffee hence has comparative advantage in the production of coffee. According to the HO model, Congo should specialize in coffee and South Africa in automobiles. After exchange, both countries experience welfare gains. Autarky welfare was on indifference curve I, whereas post-trade welfare is on indifference curve II. ii. What groups within the two countries would support trade based on the long-run HO model? Explain. (4 Marks) Answer Award marks according to similar argument made According to the HO model, owners of labour would support trade as their wages increases with specialization and exchange. On the other hand, owners of capital would not support trade as free trade reduces their returns due to the inflow of cheap imports. For South Africa, the owners of labour would not support free trade since wages would reduce with trade, whereas the owners of capital will support free trade since the specialization and increasing demand increases the return to capital in South Africa. iii. Do you expect those opposing trade in Congo in the short-run to differ from those opposing trade in the long-run. Explain (assume labour is mobile in the short-run and capital is not). (7 Marks) Answer Award marks according to similar argument made In the short run, labour is variable (mobile) and capital is fixed (immobile). Unlike the HO model, owners of a certain capital (the capital used to produce coffee) would benefit in the short-run. Returns to capital for the comparative advantage good (capital for coffee) increases since increasing demand and specialization in coffee results in the returns to the capital involved in the production of coffee. The owners of capital in the production of automobiles will be worse off. Returns to the capital used in the manufacture of automobiles in Congo would reduce in the short run with trade. This is because of cheap imports and increase in labour input costs as producers of automobiles have to increase wages to keep their workers from leaving to the coffee industry. In the short-run, we cannot definitely say if owners of labour gains or losses in Congo. Although nominal wages increases in Congo with trade, real wages may decrease or increase depending on what is consumed. If wages are spent on coffee, then consumers are worse off since price of coffee rises faster than wages with trade. However if consumers spend their wages on automobiles, then they will be better off since the price of automobiles are lower than autarky due to imports from South Africa. *** END OF PAPER *** Page 10 of 10