Techniques for Calculating the Efficient Frontier Weerachart Kilenthong RIPED, UTCC c ⃝Kilenthong 2017 Tee (Riped) Introduction 1 / 43 Two Fund Theorem The Two-Fund Theorem states that we can reach any point on the m-v frontier using only two efficient portfolios. Formally, let Xa and Xb be m-v portfolios with mean return Ra and Rb ̸= Ra , respectively. Hence, 1 2 A combination αXa + (1 − α)Xb is an m-v portfolio. An m-v portfolio is a combination of (Xa , Xb ). Proof: Consider a portfolio Xz = αXa + (1 − α)Xb , where Xa and Xb are m-v portfolios. We need to show that this Xz is a solution to m-v problem, i.e., we can write ( ) ( ) −1 1 −1 1 R̄ A Xz = Σ (1) Rz where Rz = αRa + (1 − α)Rb is the mean return of portfolio Xz . Tee (Riped) Introduction 2 / 43 Two Fund Theorem: Proof continued We now have Xz = αXa + (1 − α)Xb ( ) ( ) −1 1 −1 1 R̄ A = αΣ Ra ( ) ( ) 1 + (1 − α)Σ−1 1 R̄ A−1 Rb ( ) ( ) −1 1 −1 1 R̄ A = Σ . αRa + (1 − α)Rb In addition, we know that Rz = R̄T Xz = R̄T (αXa + (1 − α)Xb ) = αR̄T Xa + (1 − α)R̄T Xb = αRa + (1 − α)Rb Therefore, we can write Xz Tee (Riped) −1 = Σ ( 1 R̄ Introduction ) −1 A ( 1 Rz ) . (2) 3 / 43 Two Fund Theorem: Proof continued We just showed that Xz is an m-v portfolio. We now can prove the second statement (the opposite direction). In fact, we just reverse the earlier proof. Suppose that Xz be an m-v portfolio, i.e., we can write ( ) ( ) −1 1 −1 1 R̄ A Xz = Σ . (3) Rz For any pair Ra and Rb , we can find a real number α such that −Rb . αRa + (1 − α)Rb = Rz . Inf act, we set α = RRza −R b We can now rewrite the above equation as ( ) ( ) −1 1 −1 1 R̄ A Xz = Σ αRa + (1 − α)Rb ( ) ( ) −1 1 −1 1 R̄ A = αΣ Ra ( ) ( ) 1 + (1 − α)Σ−1 1 R̄ A−1 Rb Tee (Riped) Introduction 4 / 43 Two Fund Theorem Tee (Riped) Introduction 5 / 43 Tangency Portfolio with Risk-Free Asset With the risk-free asset, the optimal portfolio selection problem becomes min XT ΣX X (4) subject to ( ) XT R̄ − Rf 1 = Rt − Rf . (5) where Rf is the risk free rate. Note that total weight on risky assets does not need to be equal to 1. If 1T X > 1, the investor must borrow, and vice versa. The Lagrangian now is ( )) ( L = XT ΣX + µ Rt − Rf − XT R̄ − Rf 1 Tee (Riped) Introduction (6) 6 / 43 Tangency Portfolio with Risk-Free Asset The optimal condition or FOC with respect to X is ( ) ( ) µ 2ΣX − µ R̄ − Rf 1 = 0 ⇒ X = Σ−1 R̄ − Rf 1 2 (7) Similarly to the above problem we first solve for µ: ) µ( )T ( ) ( R̄ − Rf 1 Σ−1 R̄ − Rf 1 Rt − Rf = XT R̄ − Rf 1 = 2 Thus, µ Rt − Rf =( )T ( ) 2 R̄ − Rf 1 Σ−1 R̄ − Rf 1 (8) Thus, we get ) ( (Rt − Rf )Σ−1 R̄ − Rf 1 X= ( )T ( ) R̄ − Rf 1 Σ−1 R̄ − Rf 1 Tee (Riped) Introduction 7 / 43 Tangency Portfolio with Risk-Free Asset The tangency portfolio Xt is such that 1T X t = 1 (9) Using this condition with the optimal portfolio, we get ( )T ( ) R̄ − Rf 1 Σ−1 R̄ − Rf 1 ( ) Rt − Rf = 1T Σ−1 R̄ − Rf 1 (10) ( ) Σ−1 R̄ − Rf 1 ) Xt = T −1 ( R̄ − Rf 1 1 Σ (11) Hence, Tee (Riped) Introduction 8 / 43 Efficient Frontier Finding an efficient frontier when I I I I short sales are allowed and riskless borrowing and lending is possible, short sales are allowed but riskless borrowing and lending is not possible, short sales are not allowed but riskless borrowing and lending is possible, neither short sales nor riskless borrowing and lending are possible. Roles of a riskless asset (or riskless lending and borrowing). Roles of short sales. Tee (Riped) Introduction 9 / 43 Efficient Frontier with Riskless Lending and Borrowing Let riskless be RF . Let RA be the return of portfolio of risky assets. The average return of the combination between A and riskless asset is R̄C = (1 − X )RF + X R̄A Variance is √ σC = (1 − X )2 σF2 + X 2 σA2 + 2X (1 − X )σA σF ρFA = X σA (12) (13) Hence, R̄C = RF + Tee (Riped) R̄A − RF σC σA Introduction (14) 10 / 43 Efficient Frontier with Riskless Lending and Borrowing Tee (Riped) Introduction 11 / 43 Efficient Frontier with Riskless Lending and Borrowing Tee (Riped) Introduction 12 / 43 Efficient Frontier with Riskless Lending but not Borrowing Tee (Riped) Introduction 13 / 43 Efficient Frontier with Riskless Lending and Borrowing at Different Rates Tee (Riped) Introduction 14 / 43 An Example with Bonds and Stocks Returns and variances of bonds and stocks are R̄S = 12.5%, σS = 14.9%ρS,B = 0.45, R̄B = 6%σB = 4.8% (15) Now assume that the investor and borrow and lend at 5 %. Then we can identify tangent portfolio T. The new efficient frontier is now a straight line. R̄P = 5 + 0.50σP Tee (Riped) Introduction (16) 15 / 43 Efficient Frontier with Bonds and Stocks Tee (Riped) Introduction 16 / 43 An Example with Bonds and Stocks (Con’t) From the graph, R̄T = 13.54% and σT = 16.95% We can find the corresponding portfolio weight XS for the tangent portfolio. 13.54 = XS (2.5) + (1 − XS )6 ⇒ XS = 116%, XB = −16% Tee (Riped) Introduction (17) 17 / 43 Efficient Frontier with Bonds and Stocks Tee (Riped) Introduction 18 / 43 Short Sales and Riskless implies Maximum Slope The existence of riskless asset implies that the efficient frontier in the mean-standard deviation space is the line between the riskless asset and the portfolio of risky assets that gives the maximum slope of the line. The efficient frontier is the line passing through RF and B. Tee (Riped) Introduction 19 / 43 Optimal Portfolio Problem with Short Sales and Riskless Asset Mathematically, we can find the efficient frontier by solving the following problem. The problem is to find a portfolio of risky assets P, whose mean return and standard deviation are R̄P and σP respectively, that maximize the slope max Xi R̄P − RF σP (18) subject to N ∑ Xi = 1 (19) i=1 Tee (Riped) Introduction 20 / 43 Mean and Standard Deviation The mean return of portfolio P is given by R̄P = N ∑ Xi R̄i (20) i=1 where R̄i is the mean return of asset i. The standard deviation of portfolio P is given by 1 2 N ∑ N N ∑ ∑ 2 2 Xi Xj σij σP = Xi σi + i=1 Tee (Riped) (21) i=1 j̸=i Introduction 21 / 43 Solving for Optimal Portfolio The problem can be written as [ max Xi | N ∑ i=1 − 1 ] N 2 N N ( ) ∑ 2 2 ∑∑ Xi R̄i − RF Xi σi + Xi Xj σij {z F1 (X) }| i=1 i=1 j̸=i {z (22) } F2 (X) Solving this: using first order conditions (FOCs): differentiating the objective function with respect to a choice variable and take it equal to zero. The FOC w.r.t. Xk is ∂F1 × F2 ∂F2 ∂F1 = 0 =⇒ F1 + F2 =0 ∂Xk ∂Xk ∂Xk Tee (Riped) Introduction (23) 22 / 43 Solving for Optimal Portfolio: More Details Each derivative is ∂F1 = R̄k − RF ∂Xk and − 3 2 N N N ∑ ∂F2 1 ∑ 2 2 ∑ ∑ =− Xi σi + Xi Xj σij 2Xk σk2 + 2 Xj σjk ∂Xk 2 i=1 Tee (Riped) i=1 j̸=i Introduction j̸=k 23 / 43 Solving for Optimal Portfolio: More Details Putting these together: − 3 2 ( ) ∑ N N ∑ N ∑ 1 2 2 0 = R̄P − RF − Xi σi + Xi Xj σij 2 i=1 i=1 j̸=i ∑ × 2Xk σk2 + 2 Xj σjk [ ] j̸=k − 1 2 N ∑ N N ∑ [ ] ∑ 2 2 Xi Xj σij Xi σi + + R̄k − RF i=1 [ ] i=1 j̸=i = − R̄P − RF σP−3 Xk σk2 + ∑ ] [ Xj σjk + R̄k − RF σP−1 j̸=k Tee (Riped) Introduction 24 / 43 Solving for Optimal Portfolio: More Details Multiplying this equation by σP and rearranging the terms give ∑ [ ] R̄P − RF 2 + R̄k − RF 0 = − X σ X σ + j k jk k σ2 j̸=k | {zP } λP which can be rewritten in a compact form as, for each asset k, ∑ λP Xj σjk R̄k − RF = λP Xk σk2 + | {z } | {z } Zk R̄k − RF = Zk σk2 + j̸=k ∑ Zj σjk Zj (24) j̸=k Tee (Riped) Introduction 25 / 43 System of Simultaneous Equations After collecting all FOC for every asset together, we will end up with a system of simultaneous equations: R̄1 − RF = Z1 σ12 + Z2 σ12 + Z3 σ13 + . . . + ZN σ1N R̄2 − RF = Z1 σ12 + Z2 σ22 + Z3 σ23 + . . . + ZN σ2N .. . R̄N − RF 2 = Z1 σ1N + Z2 σ12 + Z3 σ1N + . . . + ZN σN Tee (Riped) Introduction 26 / 43 System of Simultaneous Equations This system of simultaneous equations can be written in a matrix form as R̄ − RF 1 = Σ × Z where R̄1 R̄ = ... , 1 = R̄N 2 σ1 σ12 . . . σ12 σ 2 . . . 2 Σ = . .. .. .. . . σ1N Tee (Riped) σ2N ... Introduction 1 .. , Z = . 1 σ1N σ2N .. . Z1 .. , . ZN 2 σN 27 / 43 Recovering the Optimal Portfolio In principle, we will be able to solve for Zi using several methods, e.g., 1 inverse matrix ( ) Z = Σ−1 R̄ − RF 1 2 (25) repetitive substitution (see example) The solution of this mathematical problem is Zi but what we really want is Xi . How can we get Xi ? From Zi = λP Xi , we can show that ∑ ∑ Zi = λ P Xi = λP (26) i i Hence we can recover the optimal portfolio X from Z using Xk = Tee (Riped) Zk Zk =∑ λP i Zi Introduction (27) 28 / 43 Example Suppose there are three risky assets, say CP (asset 1), Centrals (asset 2), and PTT (asset 3). Using past information, we can calculate mean returns and variance covariance matrix of these assets as 14 R̄ = 8 , 20 6×6 0.5 × 6 × 3 0.2 × 6 × 15 3×3 0.4 × 3 × 15 Σ = 0.5 × 6 × 3 0.2 × 6 × 15 0.4 × 3 × 15 15 × 15 Suppose that the riskless rate is 5 %. Tee (Riped) Introduction 29 / 43 Example Hence, a system of equations for this problem is 9 = 36Z1 + 9Z2 + 18Z3 3 = 9Z1 + 9Z2 + 18Z3 15 = 18Z1 + 18Z2 + 225Z3 The solution is Z = Tee (Riped) Introduction 14 63 1 63 3 63 30 / 43 Example We can then find portfolio weight X as X1 = 14 1 3 , X2 = , X3 = 18 18 18 The mean return of the optimal portfolio is R̄P = 1 3 14 × 14 + ×8+ × 20 = 14.67% 18 18 18 The variance of the optimal portfolio is σP2 = XT ΣX = 33.83% Tee (Riped) Introduction 31 / 43 Example: Solution The slope of the efficient frontier is equal to 1.66. Tee (Riped) Introduction 32 / 43 Short Sales without Riskless We will now consider a case where short sales are allowed but there is no riskless asset. We can use the same technique as before but with an assumed rate R̃F . Different assumed rates will lead to different efficient portfolios. Tee (Riped) Introduction 33 / 43 Example Continued. Suppose that the riskless rate is now R̃F = 2. The system of equations now becomes 12 = 36Z1 + 9Z2 + 18Z3 6 = 9Z1 + 9Z2 + 18Z3 18 = 18Z1 + 18Z2 + 225Z3 whose solution is Z1 = 42 72 6 7 12 1 , Z2 = , Z3 = and X1 = , X2 = , X3 = 189 189 189 20 20 20 and R̄P = 10.7, σP2 = 13.70 Tee (Riped) Introduction 34 / 43 Example Continued In principle, we need to find only two of them (Two Fund Theorem). That is, any combination of these two portfolios (which themselves are assets) is on the efficient frontier. For example: put 50 − 50 weight. We can show that σP2 = 21.859. Then we can find the covariance between the two portfolios: using σP2 = X12 σ12 + X22 σ22 + 2X1 X2 σ12 This leads to σ12 = 19.95. With the information of expected returns, variances, and covariance between the two portfolios, we can trace out the whole frontier. Tee (Riped) Introduction 35 / 43 Riskless but No Short Sales We will now consider a case where short sales are not allowed but there is a riskless asset. In principle, an efficient portfolio problem is a constrained maximization problem. In this case, we can write max Xi R̄P − RF σP (28) Xi = 1 (29) Xi ≥ 0, ∀i (30) subject to ∑ i where the last one represents the no short-sales constraint. Tee (Riped) Introduction 36 / 43 Riskless but No Short Sales: Example Consider again the example with three assets and risk-free rate RF = 5%. Recall that the efficient portfolio in this case is X1 = 14 1 3 , X2 = , X3 = 18 18 18 Remember that this solution is solved under an assumption that short sales are allowed. What if we now impose the no short-sales constraint, should we get a different answer? Tee (Riped) Introduction 37 / 43 Example II Suppose there are three risky assets, say CP (asset 1), Centrals (asset 2), and PTT (asset 3). Using past information, we can calculate mean returns and variance covariance matrix of these assets as 14 R̄ = 8 , 20 6×6 0.5 × 6 × 10 0.2 × 6 × 15 10 × 10 0.4 × 10 × 15 Σ = 0.5 × 6 × 10 0.2 × 6 × 15 0.4 × 10 × 15 15 × 15 Suppose that the riskless rate is 5 %. Tee (Riped) Introduction 38 / 43 Example Hence, a system of equations for this problem is 9 = 36Z1 + 30Z2 + 18Z3 3 = 30Z1 + 100Z2 + 60Z3 15 = 18Z1 + 60Z2 + 225Z3 The solution is 0.3000 Z = −0.1019 0.0698 Tee (Riped) Introduction 39 / 43 Example We can then find portfolio weight X as X1 = 1.1197, X2 = −0.3803, X3 = 0.2607 But we do not allow for a negative weight! What should we do? Tee (Riped) Introduction 40 / 43 More General Efficient Portfolio Problem This problem started from the seminal work by Markowitz (1959). ∑ ∑∑ min Xi2 σi2 + Xi Xj σij (31) X i i subject to ∑ ∑ Xi j̸=i = 1 (32) ≥ R̄P (33) ≥ 0, ∀i (34) ≥ D (35) i Xi R̄i i ∑ Xi Xi di i where the last constraint is the so called dividend requirement constraint. The role of a riskless asset is to simplify the objective function as a slope. Tee (Riped) Introduction 41 / 43 CAPM: A first look From the tangency portfolio, we have σt2 = XT ΣX = Rt − Rf ( T −1 1 Σ R̄ − Rf 1 ) (36) Hence we can write ( ) Rt − Rf 1T Σ−1 R̄ − Rf 1 = σt2 (37) Similarly, covariance between the tangency portfolio and all assets is given by Covt = ΣX = Tee (Riped) R̄ − Rf 1 ) ( R̄ − Rf 1 1T Σ−1 Introduction (38) 42 / 43 CAPM: A first look Combining the last two equations lead to CAPM R̄ − Rf 1 = Covt (Rt − Rf ) σt2 (39) We now set the ratio between covariance and variance as β, e.g., 1 ,Rt ) , where Rt is a return process of the tangency portfolio βi = Cov (R σt2 (a random variable). We now have a CAPM with the tangency portfolio as a market portfolio: R̄ − Rf 1 = βt (Rt − Rf ) (40) where βt = (βi )ni=1 . Tee (Riped) Introduction 43 / 43