2019 – 2038
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Cirium Fleet
Forecast
An independent outlook of the
global commercial passenger and
freighter aircraft market.
cirium.com
2019 - 2038
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The 2019 Cirium Fleet Forecast for commercial jets and turboprops predicts
that 48,860 new passenger and freighter aircraft deliveries will be made
over the next 20 years, worth an estimated $3.1 trillion. Passenger traffic is
forecast to grow at 4.5% per year and freight traffic at 4.0%.
This is a long-term outlook and comes at a time
of increasing uncertainty in the market. The year
2019 will mark a 10th consecutive year of airline
net profits, reaching an unprecedented $225
billion for the cycle. But data is now showing a
slowing of passenger traffic growth after another
strong year of over 7% in 2018, the ninth year of
above average growth in demand.
A slowdown in growth rates should not be a
surprise. Global GDP forecasts expect a slower
growth rate and economic indicators are showing
a consistent decline in all major economic regions.
The WTO’s World Trade Outlook Indicator is
at its weakest since 2010 and the poor cargo
traffic results in the first half of 2019 bear out a
weakening market, exacerbated by the US-China
trade dispute. With fuel comprising a quarter of
airline cost, oil price volatility also continues to be
a concern.
The airline industry continues
to grow, but at a rate closer
to the long-term average.
Against this background, the aircraft OEM sector
continues to evolve and face challenges in the
next few years. Airbus is ending production of
its iconic A380, has absorbed the CSeries as the
A220 and launched its longest range single-aisle,
the A321XLR. Boeing is focused on getting the
737 Max flying again (at time of writing in July
2019), continues to assess the market for the New
Mid-market Airplane (NMA) and looks to start
testing the 777-X.
Bombardier is exiting the airliner business with the
sale of the DHC-8 programme to Longview and
planned sale of the CRJ to Mitsubishi, which has
relaunched the MRJ as the SpaceJet. Embraer’s
regional jet business is set to become Boeing
Brasil. Meanwhile, the new Chinese and Russian
single-aisle and twin-aisle projects continue their
development.
All these factors are considered in deriving
our opinion of the future competitive dynamic
between OEMs and their competing types. The
industry still has a record high firm order backlog
of over 14,000 aircraft, which equates to more
than seven years of production at current rates.
This is driving further planned increases in singleaisle rates.
The 2019 forecast continues to contend that
potential further increases in production rates
beyond current plans do not appear to be
sustainable unless traffic growth continues to be
above-trend and/or retirements increase faster
than forecast.
2019 - 2038
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Forecast 2019 - 2038
Looking long term, the forecast traffic growth
will require the global commercial aircraft fleet to
increase by almost 25,000 units, which equates
to a 3.4% annual growth rate, taking the fleet
to 54,500 aircraft at the end of 2038, of which
46,800 will be passenger jets.
Deliveries
940
3,650
Single-aisle and twin-aisle fleets will expand the
fastest at close to 4% annually, with regional
aircraft growing more modestly at around 1% and
freighters at just over 2%.
2%
6%
18%
Looking long term, the
forecast traffic growth will
require the global commercial
aircraft fleet to increase
by almost 25,000 units
About 74% of the current fleet is forecast to be
permanently retired during the 20-year period,
including around 19,900 passenger aircraft
and 2,070 freighters. Survivor curve analysis is
used for modelling retirements and forecasts
an average economic life of 22 years for singleaisles and 20 years for twin-aisles. An additional
2,180 passenger aircraft will leave the fleet and be
converted for freighter service.
About 53% of the 46,860 new commercial jet
and turboprop deliveries will be to cater for fleet
growth and 47% for replacement.
The total value of these new deliveries, estimated
using Ascend by Cirium’s 2019 Full-Life Base
Values, is around $3.1 trillion. Base Values are
used to estimate future delivery values, since in
2,830
8,520
8%
66%
30,920
Turboprop
Regional Jet
Single-Aisle
Twin-Aisle
Freighter
our view, they are a more pragmatic estimation of
actual business values than the manufacturer list
prices often used in other forecasts. The annual
delivery value will rise from $110 billion in 2019 to
$185 billion by 2038.
Airbus and Boeing are expected to remain the
two largest commercial aircraft OEMs, between
them delivering an estimated 79% of aircraft and
87% by value through 2038. However, there is
$400 billion of demand for other OEMs or new
programmes. ATR, Comac, CRAIC, Embraer,
Irkut, Mitsubishi, Sukhoi and others all have
2019 - 2038
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
programmes in service or development. The C919
and MC-21 in particular are predicted to take
almost $100 billion of single-aisle demand.
In the passenger market, single-aisle jets will
account for 67% of deliveries and 52% of delivery
value, with the core of this $1.6 trillion market
continuing to be the 150-seat size, typified by
the Airbus A320neo and Boeing 737 Max 8. They
will have almost double the deliveries of their
larger siblings, but the 180 seaters including the
A321neo and 737 Max 10 will take an increasing
share, with 32% of deliveries and 36% of value
over the 20 years. These larger sized single-aisles
are becoming more capable, with capacities of
over 240 seats and ranges of up to 4,700nm in
the case of different configurations and variants
of the A321neo.
The $1.29 trillion twin-aisle market will focus
on 787s and A350s, with “mid-sized” 250-300
seaters taking over 60% of delivery value. The
highest capacity markets will be fought over
by the Airbus A350-1000 and Boeing 777-9,
now that the Airbus A380 is ending production
by 2021.
Twin-aisle supply will remain the last duopoly in
the commercial sector until the end of the next
decade, but China and Russia have launched the
CR929 and almost 300 deliveries are forecast
by 2038. There is also a potential $100 billion of
deliveries forecast for unspecified twin-aisles from
the late-2020s from existing and new OEMs in
the sector.
Boeing continues to study the business case
for a new mid-market small twin-aisle aircraft,
the NMA, for service entry in the mid/late
2020s but it is not covered specifically in the
2019 forecast since the programme presently
remains unlaunched.
In the smaller sizes, the turboprop market is
expected to be worth $57 billion in deliveries,
led by the 70-seat sector, with potential for a
larger 90 plus-seat size from the 2030s. This
sector is experiencing change, with De Havilland
now building the Q400 and China developing its
MA700 programme. Although we don’t have a
hybrid- electric airliner in this forecast, this could
be the next powerplant direction for this market.
Change is also a feature of the $110 billion
regional jet market, with the CRJ to end
production, Mitsubishi relaunching its MRJ as the
SpaceJet and Embraer’s commercial programme
set to become Boeing Brasil. The forecast
demand is split almost equally by aircraft of
over 90-100-seats and those in 70- to 76-seat
configuration serving the North American market,
which are currently scope-clause constrained.
Indeed, the future of the regional jet market
remains highly dependent on how pilot scope
clauses evolve at the US majors. Mitsubishi
is launching a new M100 version to serve
this market.
Freighter markets will continue to see a 70%
to 30% split between conversions and new
deliveries, with total demand for just over 3,100
aircraft, including $120 billion for over 900 new
aircraft. Although just over half of demand is
2019 - 2038
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Forecast 2019 - 2038
Deliveries by Region
Africa
Russia
Asia-Pacific
North
America
3%
4%
23%
20%
6%
MidEast
8%
19%
17%
Latin
America
China
Europe
forecast to be carried in the bellies of passenger
aircraft by 2038, the fleet of main deck freighters
will still grow by almost 40%.
Asian markets will be the engine for growth
and China is forecast to have the highest traffic
growth rate at over 7%. This will make it the
largest single country for deliveries with a 19%
share, only just behind North America. The Middle
East will take a 5% share, but in value terms it will
be 11% by virtue of the high number of twin-aisle
deliveries.
All other Asia-Pacific countries total another 23%
and European airlines will receive a 17% share. By
2038, the combined Asia-Pacific and China fleet
will increase its share of the global fleet from 30%
to 41%.
About Cirium
Cirium brings together powerful data and analytics to keep the world in motion.
Delivering insight, built from decades of experience in the sector, enabling travel
companies, aircraft manufacturers, airports, airlines and financial institutions,
among others, to make logical and informed decisions which shape the future of
travel, growing revenues and enhancing customer experiences. Cirium is part of
RELX PLC, a global provider of information-based analytics and decision tools
for professional and business customers. Find out more at cirium.com.
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