Bill Ziemba
The Pegasus World Cup III:
Accelerate versus City of Light
Benbrant [CC BY-SA 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0)]
The big showdown
between Accelerate, who
had many grade I wins (5
in 2018) and City of Light,
Something of a meaningful matchup as both were
running their final races.
P
egasus I was a unique concept: a basically self-financing race, similar to the
brilliant John Gaines Breeders’ Cup,
which is financed by breeders giving one
season, regardless of its price, to enable
all their offspring to be in the races for a small fee
if they qualify. For the Pegasus I, 12 owners put
up US$1million each for a US$12 million purse
to be split among the 12 runners. So, the track,
Gulfstream Park in this case, did not have to contribute much, and gains a lot in betting revenue
from the race. Arrogate won that race en route to
record career earnings of US$17,482,600 after he
won the Dubai World Cup as well. The idea was
for most of the owners to break even or gain. There
was a US$250,000 minimum payout, even for 12th
place finish, plus there were TV and other revenues (about US$150–200,000 per horse), so the
top four gained, the next four were about even, and
the bottom four had a partial loss. Of course, these
owners also typically pay 10 percent each to the
jockey and trainer, plus other costs.
Pegasus II had a competition between Frank
Stronach, who runs the Pegasus at his Gulfstream
Park in Florida, and Sheikh Mohammed, who
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runs the Dubai World Cup. The Dubai race was
increased from US$10 million to US$12 million,
and the Pegasus II was moved to US$16,300,000.
In Pegasus II, the owners had to pay US$1.25
million. The winner, Gun Runner, received
US$7 million, en route to lifetime earnings of
US$15,988,600. The other payouts were US$1.6
million for second, US$1.3 million for third, US$1
million for fourth, US$850,000 for fifth, and sixth
to 12th received US$500,000 each. They also got
some fringe benefits, including publicity. See
Wilmott issues July 2017 and July 2018 for writeups of Pegasus I and II, respectively.
Changes for the Pegasus III
The very high US$1.25 million entry fee to run
in the Pegasus made it tough to fill out the field
for the Pegasus II. That and other considerations
resulted in the US$16+ million purse being split
into a US$9 million dirt race and a US$7 million
grass race in 2019 for Pegasus III, which was run
on January 26, 2019. The entry fees were still considerable but much lower. For the $7 million grass
race, the entry fee was US$500,000 for each of
the ten runners. The payoffs were: US$2,656,250
for first, US$796,875 for second, US$575,521 for
third, US$486,975 for fourth, US$442,700 for fifth,
and US$350,000 each for sixth to tenth. So, the
track put up about US$2 million of the US$7 million, with the owners contributing US$5 million.
For the US$9 million dirt race, the owners
also put up US$500,000 each. With 12 runners,
the owners contributed US$6 million of the
US$9 million purse. The payoffs for the dirt race
wilmott magazine
wilmott magazine Figure 2: The Wizard’s Ratings for the Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes.
Used with permission.
CJ: 3
HTR: 3, 12, 5, 4, 10, 1, 6, 8, 7, 2, 11, 9
Craven–Sartin: 5, 3, 8, 10, 4, 1
PSR Ratings:
1 Bravado
2 Something Awesome
3 City of Light
4 Seeking the Soul
5 Accelerate
6 Tom’s D’Etat
7 True Timber
8 Gunnevera
105
101
122
105
114
108
122
105
9 Kukulkan (Mex)
10 Audible
11 Imperative
12 Patternrecognition
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105
91
126
Some of the handicappers revised their picks
#3 City of Light – TOP VALUE/PRESSER – This horse subdue to the heavy rain in the days leading up to the
mitted the best performance over the Breeders’ Cup weekend,
race, as the track was expected to be muddy – and
bar none. He cut absolutely brutal fractions and then went on
it was.
to win easily while doling out strong energy, late. Can get this
The Wizard’s analysis is shown in Figure 1.
distance, especially since horses running on this speed-favorSuper Screener commented as follows (see
ing track can carry their speed further. Working super, offers
http://www.superscreener.com):
value, and is one to beat.
^
were US$4 million for first, US$1.25 million for
second, US$900,000 for third, US$700,000 for
fourth, US$550,000 for fifth, US$250,000 for sixth
through ninth, and US$200,000 for the tenth
through 12th. Of course, the owners and horses
get publicity and other benefits.
Attendance and betting were down about 15
percent because of the heavy rain conditions. Still,
the track did well, with much betting on the very
good card of races at Gulfstream and on the simulcast sites.
Both of these races are very competitive grade
I races, and the winners are more valuable as stallions.
The big showdown in the dirt race was
between Accelerate, who had many grade I wins
(five in 2018) and City of Light, who had beaten
Accelerate in a previous race and had top-money
jockey JJ Castellano. Both of them were running
their final race and were scheduled to begin stud
duties at Lane’s End, where City of Light’s sire,
Quality Road, stands for US$150,000.
City of Light was first of 105 and 104 horses
in workouts on January 5 and 19, 2019, respectively. Accelerate was a 3–2 favorite and City of
Light was the second choice, at 1.90–1. All the
other horses were 9–1 or higher. They included
Bravazo, who seems to always be in the money
but never wins at the top level; Audible, who
has won the Florida Derby on this racetrack;
Gunnevera, who as a late charger has done well
in these top races; Kukulkan, a Mexican horse,
who has won 14 straight races, including a
US$300,000 race at Gulfstream; Seeking the Soul,
who was second to City of Light in the Breeders’
Cup dirt mile; Tom’s d’Etat; and four other longshots. The past performances for Race 12 are
shown in Figures 3 through 7 at the end of the
article.
It was assumed to be more or less a match race
between the top two horses. The handicappers
mostly favored City of Light over Accelerate. Super
Screener also favored Seeking the Soul (4) as his
second pick. No one liked the Mexican horse.
The picks of the handicappers were:
Wizard: 3, 5, 8, 1, 4
Super Screener: 3 and 5 are As; 10 and 6 are Bs;
9, 12, 1, 4, 8 are Cs; and 2, 7, 11 are X.
Timeform: 5, 3, 6
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Table 1: Chart of Race 12 in the Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes. Used with permission.
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Figure 2: The Wizard’s Ratings for the Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational Stakes.
Used with permission.
and
#4 Seeking the Soul – TOP LONG SHOT/CLOSER – was
clearly 2nd best in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile. Came back way
too soon after that peak performance, leading to a flat finish in
the G1 Clark. Has been working super leading up to this. This is
the best candidate of the 20–1+ long shots to make an impact
on the Exotics. Will sit the perfect trip mid-pack and then
continue to grind on.
The finish was: 3, 4, 5, 1, 10.
My bets were:
3 win, place, show – all collected
5 place, show – show collected
I lost the following bets:
3–5 exacta
3,5/3,5/6,9 trifecta
3,5/3,5/1,4,6,8,9,10,12 trifecta
But I won the trifecta 3,5/1,4,6,8,9,10,12/3,5,
which paid US$103.20 per $1 bet. So, a $5 ticket
returned US$516 plus rebate, which was enough to
make a gain on the race.
I lost the following two superfectas: 3,5/3,5/1,2,
4,6,8,9,10,12/6,8,9,10 and 3,5/3,5/8,10/8,10.
Race 11, on grass, was run for the first time
as the most valuable turf race in the US. The past
performances for Race 11 are shown in Figures 8
through 11 at the end of the article.
The picks of the handicappers were:
Wizard: 7, 2, 3, 9
Super Screener: 2 and 7 are As; 8 and 9 are Bs;
5, 1, 3, 4 are Cs; 10 and 6 are X
Timeform: 9, 2, 7
CJ: 7 and 9
HTR: 7, 9, 2, 4, 1, 3, 5, 8 ,6, 10
Craven–Sartin: 5, 7, 9, 2, 3
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85
0
99
98
104
96
87
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The Wizard’s analysis (shown in Figure 2) was
as follows:
#7 BRICKS AND MORTAR (Race 11)
Returned from a 14-month layoff on
December 22 for Chad Brown with an impressive
win in very fast time, earning a career-best figure
in the process. He had won his first four career
starts, including a G2 race, and also ran extremely
well in defeat in two G3 races prior to the long
absence. In fact, his narrow defeat behind Yoshida
in his last start prior to the layoff was against an
extremely strong field that produced six next-out
winners. Now that Bricks and Mortar has had his
‘prep’ race, a forward move is expected for Brown,
who has won a 31 percent rate second start off
layoffs of six months or more in 2018–2019. Bricks
and Mortar shows three more excellent turf works
since the return race, including a best-of-14 5F
stamina drill on the lawn on January 19, and his
versatile running style will allow hot jockey Irad
Ortiz to stalk the pace or rally from farther back.
Lightly raced five-year-old horse still has upside
potential and could be among the best turf horses
in the country this year.
Super Screener commented as follows:
Chad Brown-trained #7 Bricks and Mortar could be undefeated had it not been for troubled trips in those G3 races
last year. Injuries forced him to the sidelines for over a year.
Connections wanted to run in the BC Turf but couldn’t get
him ready in time. Come back race was the perfect prep and
can move forward off that… added ground is not a concern
despite this one erroneously being labeled a “miller”.
^
PSR Ratings:
1 MAGIC WAND (IRE)
2 YOSHIDA (JPN)
3 CHANNEL MAKER
4 AEROLITHE (JPN)
5 NEXT SHARES
6 FAHAN MURA
7 BRICKS AND MORTAR
8 DELTA PRINCE
9 CATAPULT
10 DUBBY DUBBIE
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Table 2: Chart of Race 11 in the Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational Stakes. Used with permission.
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Figure 3: Past performances of the Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes. Used with permission.
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(2) and win, place, and show on Next Shares (5).
Fortunately, the gain in Race 12 and the rebate
were enough to make a small gain on these two
races.
Figures 3 through 7 show past performances for
Race 12 on dirt.
Figures 8 through 11 show past performances
for Race 11 on dirt.
Acknowledgments
Thanks to Ted Craven, Constantine Dzhabarov,
Ben Haggin, and David McKenzie for helpful data
and discussions.
^
The finish was: 7, 1, 8, 9, 3. The favorite,
Yoshida, was never in the race and finished
sixth. This was a tougher race to make a gain
betting. Bets to win, place, and show on 7 did
collect but the focus on Yoshida caused these
bets to lose: 2, 7, 8 exacta box; 2, 7, 8, 9 tri box;
2,5,7,9/2,5,7,9/2,5,7,9/2,5,7,9 exacta, trifecta, and
superfecta; so did win, place and show on Yoshida
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Figure 4: Past performances of the Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes (continued). Used with permission.
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Figure 5: Past performances of the Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes (continued). Used with permission.
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Figure 6: Past performances of the Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes (continued). Used with permission.
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Figure 7: Past performances of the Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes (continued). Used with permission.
Figure 8: Past performances of the Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational Stakes. Used with permission.
^
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Figure 9: Past performances of the Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational Stakes (continued). Used with permission.
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Figure 10: Past performances of the Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational Stakes (continued). Used with permission.
^
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Figure 11: Past performances of the Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational Stakes (continued). Used with permission.
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