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CReeve CRIDF Incomati presentation

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Incomati Flood Risk and Water
Use Management Project
Downstream impacts from a transboundary, climate
resilient and socio economic perspective
Charles Reeve : Technical Director, CRIDF
Description of the Project Area : Incomati River Basin
Uanetze
Mazimechopes
Phase
: Establish
Phase
I Project1 Area
4,500 km2
Massintonto
Sable
flood risk
500,000+
population
in Lower
model,
provide
indication
Incomati
Moamba
Major Dam
of
flood risk management
Corumana
Dam
High demand for water
Incomati
Crocodile
Three Phases to the Project:
Incomati Basin 47,000 km2
infrastructure
Illovo 5000 employees
Tongaat
10,000
Phase
2 employees
: Establish
Estates
18,000 Ha
cane
warning
and
flood
Outgrowers 9,000 Ha cane
flood
management
system (can be used for water
Incomati
Major floods 1976, 1984, 2000
allocation, water management)
80% of pop below $2/day
Phase 3 : Flood mitigation
50% of income from farming
through large storage
infrastructure
Phase 1 : Finding Lower Incomati Flood Risk Management (FRM)
1. Cooperation
ARA-Sul
Client
CRIDF
Stakeholders
3. Bring
stakeholders
along the
journey
Illovo
Tongaat
2. Flood Hydraulic
Modelling Tool
11 Sep 14
•
•
•
•
Sell project benefits
Ensure decision makers participate
Benefits of Public Private Partnership
MoU signed : three parties
• Bigger picture approach to flood risk
management, support the outgrower/
poorer communities
• Build hydraulic model
• Gain confidence in model results
• Flood risk assessment
17 Feb 15
04 Nov 14
23 Jul 15
08 May15
Refine hydraulic model, improve calibration
Define & simulate flood options
Economic analysis
Flood Hazard
FLOOD
RISK
Flood Exposure
Vulnerability
Phase 1 Conclusions\ Recommendations
The Lower Incomati Basin is particularly vulnerability to
climate change and transboundary management
challenges : project is highly transboundary
The majority of the population are poor and largely
reliant on subsistence, making them particularly
vulnerable to the increasing occurrence of water shocks
transboundary approach will significantly increase no. of
poorer communities having benefits, less vulnerability to
floods\ also start building blocks for drought issues
Indicator
Flood Bund
Location for
Outgrowers
Option S1
Flood
Mechanism u/s
Comparison
of Tongaat
Option S4
Net Present
Value
USD 2.1 Million
USD 1.0 Million
S1 > S4
Benefit Cost
Ratio
2.17
2.67
S4 > S1
External Rate
of Return
33%
42%
S4> S1
The use of a Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA), and results
shows that expansion of outgrowers very worthwhile
and in keeping principles of climate resilient, pro-poor
development
The indicative CBA , indicate that both investments (S1
and S4) are economically and have significant
economic benefit for ALL parties.
Share the flood risk
mutual benefits to all parties
FLOOD FORECASTING
1a. Stakeholder influencing
•
•
•
•
PHASE 2 TRANSBOUNDARY
Komati Water Basin Authority
International Waters
Incomati Catchment
Management Agency
• ARA-Sul, DWS and Water
Resources Branch / Ministry
of Natural Resources and
Energy (MNRE)
• DNA, EDM
•
•
•
•
•
TPTC
DWS
Data collection - gaps
Develop Rainfall runoff model
Extent MIKE 11 model
Develop Flood Forecast Model
Prototype deployment
• Climate change scenario selection
•
•
•
•
•
2D HYDRAULIC MODEL
1b. Stakeholder influencing
PHASE 3 DAM OPERATION
Review of data/ studies
Corumana dam operating rules analysis
Moamba Major Dam analysis
Draft dam operation framework
MNRE
DNA
ARA-Sul
Illovo
2. Real Time Flood
Forecasting
Tongaat
3. Detailed Flood
Modelling, economic
analysis Phase 1 Options
4. Climate Change Scenarios
5. Dam Operation
Framework
6. Technology Transfer,
Capacity Building,
Institutional support
• PHASE 2 TRANSBOUNDARY
• u/s stakeholders eg Sugar estates
(Pure life)
• ANE (National Roads Dept)
• Tongaat flood design team
• Environment Dept
• Agricultural Dept
• Manhiça Municipality
• INGC (Disaster Management)
• INAM (Meteorological Institute)
• Railway Dept.
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Process LiDAR data
Extent model to SA border
Update Mike 21 Model
Model calibration and refinement
Option scenario implementation
Economic analysis
Socio-economic including GESI
•
•
•
•
•
•
Stakeholder identification
Assessment of skill levels
Draft training programme
User Manual Preparation
Setting up daily operations system
Institutional Support
Expansion of the project : socio economic impacts
Transboundary : Tri-Partite Technical Committee (TPTC) improve communication with member
states
Flood Forecasting System : South Africa, Swaziland and Mozambique
Climate Resilience : Utilise available water more efficiently, understand climate change on
flood impacts
Flood risk management climate resilience; factors for flood hydrograph, analysis of scenarios
Pro-Poor Beneficiaries : Share the risks will benefit all parties including many poor communities
Between 250,000 and 500,000 people within Lower Incomati for Mozambique -
potentially more including SA,
Swaziland
Evolution of the Stakeholder Influence Key stakeholders very supportive include private sector
Expand steering group from Sugar Estates, ARA-Sul and ANE to include Disaster Management (INGC), Agricultural Dept, and
other member states DWS, DWA, DNA, Inkomati Usuthu Catchment Management Agency (IUCMA) etc