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Theory vs. hypothesis
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Hypothesis-an idea you can test, its often phrased in the form of a question, we
come up with hypothesis by observing the world around us, use what you
already know and that sparks a question. You put that wondering in a way that
you can test it, test-know whether or not your idea is correct. Guess about why
son couldn’t sleep is phrased in a way that you can test and confirm or
disconfirm (NOT PROVE) the hypothesis
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Theory- look at all ind variables, form hypotheses, test hyps over and over, then
develop theory about outcome we are interested in, change ind variable see if it
results in change in dependent variables, revisable and adjustable
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A scientific theory summarizes substantiated hypotheses
Nomothetic vs. idiographic
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Two different views about the goal should be when searching for knowledge
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Nomothetic- search for theories that explain dependent variables that can
explain outcomes across as many different outcomes as possible
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Ex democratic stability: nomothetic- look at many countries and see
what independent variables they have in common (look at US,
Germany, India, Japan, Nigeria, as many cases as possible)
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Idiographic- from this perspective, the goal in searching for knowledge should
be to explain dynamics in a particular area which may be a small subset of cases
or even just one case, to understand outcomes from the perspective of a
particular area or case
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Try and find that theory(collection of ind variables) that explains
democratic stability in as many different places as possible
Dem stab- still clearly defining dependent variable which is the outcome
youre interested in which is democratic stability and also clearly
identifying theh independent variables that you think matter but
instead of looking at all the countries you can youre going to look at a
particular area to really understand dynamics within that context so
then from idiographic perspective regional and cultural differences may
be so great so its just not possible to come up with a theory that covers
so many cases so the best you can do is come up with a theory for a
particular region or just that country
Correlation vs. causation
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Correlation- as one variable changes another variable changes in a predictable
way, there is no causation.
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In correlation as variable x changes variable y changes in a predictable way. In
causation variable x changing is the reason for the change in variable y. variable
y is dependent variable x is independent
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As the number of bars increases the number of churches increase, theyre both
changing a predictable way but the change in the number of bars is not the
reason for the change in the number of churches.
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For causation, bring in fundamental problem of causal inference. In social
sciences we can never say with absolute 100% certainty that one variable causes
another variable because we cannot hold everything else constant and see how
the variable changes so we can never know with absolute certainty that variable
x is the reason for the change in variable y.
Independent vs. dependent variables
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Independent-a variable that is hypothesized to have an effect on another
variable
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Dependent- the variable that is hypothesized to be affected
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Social sciences change independent variable and note the change in the
dependent variables
Nietzsche
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Russell
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People are motivated by power and glory, and power is a bad thing. Elites (the
strong) should hold power, but they should be constrained and channeled with
it. He believes in a representative democracy.
Constant
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Believes that the desire for power motivates people, and that power is a good
thing to try to achieve. He believes that those with the master moralities and
the most will to be in power are the most capable of holding it. He believes in
rule by few, so an oligarchy, aristocracy, totalitarian gov or authoritarian gov,
will be best, not a democracy.
People are motivated by a desire for liberty and freedom. The people in power
should be those who have a desire to defend public liberties because they are
motivated by liberty not power. Believes in a representative democracy with
checks and balances and a republican government.
Weber’s three types of authority
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o
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thing that makes these three types of authority legitimate is that people agree
to follow these leaders charismatic rational/legal and traditional
pick example
Traditional- monarchy, power passed down, theocracies all ecamples
 Static because the people being govered agree to follow because thet is
the way its always been,
 personal because its being passed down
 irrational because its not logically efficient
Charismatic
 Dynamic because its based on the will of one person
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o
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Personal because the person coming into power is there because of
peoples support and faith in him
 Irrational because its completely dependent on the characteristics of
the individual
legal/rational-bureacracy or democracy, people believe that the rules which
determine power are fair and best rules
 people believe in the regime and the rules for electing the leader are
the fairest and best possible
Weber thinks the best form is the democracy/bureaucracy because rules can
persist outside of the individual in power, promotes meritocracy and stability
and efficiency. People can be replaced and its okay
Anomie
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Durkheim, wanting to be a part of a community
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Anomie is feeling an individual has when they do not belong & feel excluded
from a group (breakdown of social bonds)
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Therefore for durkhiem an ideal political element would strengthen (use ex
from suicide reading)
Failed state
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Characteristics of a state
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Sovereignty over a terriroty
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Sov-ability to exercise complete control over territory within
borders
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Monopoly on legitimate use of violence within borders
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Established bureaucracy
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External legitimacy
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Govern economic activity
A failed state would be a state lacking in these characteristics in a way that
dramatically impedes state capability
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Ex: when military can take from government funds to fund own projects
without approval
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Govt cant afford to pay own employees
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Govt has to contract private individuals for security
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Or when has hellla refugees (ex Somalia DROC)
Regime
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Rules that govern a state
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Often rules regarding individual freedom and collective equality, where
power lies, and use of that power
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Determines who has access to political power and how those with power
interact with those who aren’t in power
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Regimes are generally more permanent than the government itself but less
permanent than the state
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can change by dramatic social movememnts such as a revolution
Government
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The specific people in power
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In charge of running state
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All hold particular ideas regarding freedom and equality and attempt to use
state to realize these ideas
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Governments come and go, not one govt is seen as necessary to health of state
even in auth regimes usually
Nation
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Group of people who share a common cultural and political identity
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Cultural identity-
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Political- shared political aspirations that include some degree of territorial self
determination
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Self determination-
Aspirations for self govt and sovereignty
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Sov-ability to exercise complete control over territory within
borders
Nation-state
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Nation that also has own state
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State- collection of institutions that exercise control over a particular
territory
Characteristics of a state
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Sovereignty over a terriroty
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Sov-ability to exercise complete control over territory within
borders
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Monopoly on legitimate use of violence within borders
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Established bureaucracy
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External legitimacy
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Govern economic activity
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Division of labor
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People are motivated my material security and material gain so in order to
ensure that they transform their environment, in doing so we get the division of
labor, in creating DOL we get two social classes, and in those two social classes,
the bourgeoisie holds all the economic power which is what gives them
intellectual and political power=EXPLOITATION
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Fundamental problem of causal inference
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In the social sciences we cannot be completely sure that causation is occurring
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Define correlation v causation
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Cant create an environment where you keep everything else constant and take
the variable interested in and have one country where everything is exactly the
same except for the ind variable and expect everything else to be constant. No
matter what method we use we don’t escape it by use quantitative statistical
methodology. We can come close with lots of diff methods ex. Ethnographic
case focused research or quantitative research but none allow us to escape this
fund problem of causal inference.
Interest group
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o
o
o
o
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Labor is divided into those who do the producing and those who own
the means of production
Organize, channel, and defend the interest of a certain constituency.
Different from parties because they only want to have political influence
Formally organized association of individuals that attempt to influence
government decisions as to benefit themselves or their larger causes
Don’t field candidates for office but they mobilize people, lobby, and act as
think tanks
AARP- bring all interests together, older people have different interests on
climate change, gun control etc but AARP will try and bring them all together
Difference between interest groups and political parties is that interest groups
always have their specific constituencies in mind but political parties have the
good of all of the nation in mind
Political party
o
A group of people who unite to attempt to win or maintain control over the
government
 Structure the popular vote
 Running candidates
 Act as interest intermediaries
 Aggregate interest platforms
 Mobilize support
 Speeches and campaign in states, door to door
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Provide information shortcuts:
 Vote along party lines
 Represent marginalized groups
 Play a role in controlling violence by giving minorities to have an
outlet to express their needs
Interest intermediation
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Aggregation: ex AARP, bring all interests together, older people have different
interests on climate change, gun control etc but AARP will try and bring them all
together
 the combination of political demands of individuals and groups into
policy programs
o
An action, not a group, it’s something that groups do. Done by a variety of social
groups including political parties, social movements, and interest groups.
Aggregate and articulate interest.
 Republicans being in NRA people, christians, pro-life
 Democrats being pro-choice & gun control
Articulation-developing a platform, coalescing all of those ideas into specific
policy prescriptions, bringing interests to politicians, elected officials, those in
authority. Developing a platform, coalescing all of those different ideas into
specific policy prescriptions that they could advocate for in the political arena
Sartorie-pol parties ideal intermediators because they have the good of the
nation as a whole in mind whereas interest groups focus on just the interests of
their members
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Duverger's Law
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In democracy with single member districts with plurality (define smd &plur)
there will be a bipartisan system where two parties tend to resemble each other
in governing
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Not rational for third candidate to enter
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Say “if you have an electoral system where there is only one seat up for grabs in
a district and the way you determine who gets that seat is a simple majority
then rational voters will not encourage third fourth fith parties to enter the race
because it would split the vote and ensure the other ideological candidate
would win because there is only one seat up for grabs and the person who gets
the simple majoriy will win”
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Ideologically centered
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2000 election –green party split democrat ticket
Centralism
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One national government holds power & has sub territories (states districtis etc)
that don’t have sovereignty
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Pro centralist arguments
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1. Spillover effects (environment)
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2. Some moral issues aren’t to be compromised on
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3. Subterritories could put things that re unconstitutional into law in
their territories
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4. Local govts vary widely economically & states vary greatly in
resources so there is an unequal distribution of resources in federalism
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5. Federalism might set up counterproductive and ineffective govts
Federalism
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Has entities with some degree of sovereignty in union
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Pro fed
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1. If subterritories all had some degree of sovereignty befor union
formed it is easier to govern if you let subt. Keep some of that power
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subterritories know local conditions better, especially if state is large
and diverse
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ex. Texas has less strict gun laws than cali so its not so heated
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4. Can provide small laboratories for public policy, so the natl govt can
see how its working before making it a state policy
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5. Ppl can vote with their feet,
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they can stay in same country but move states if they like the
policy of some state better
"hung" parliament
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Can be more effective at getting things done because natl
govermnet cant adjust well to local conditions
3. Diffuses policy conflicts
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respects the subt.’s sovereignty
When three or more parties are elected to the parliament, so there is no
prevalent or obvious majority in the legislature. A Prime Minister cannot be
elected by a simple majority vote in this case.
 For example, in the 2010 UK elections a coalition was formed between
the Liberal and Tory party.
 Might not be as legitimate because two factions in Parliament
came together and gave power to a party that should not have
power
Presidential system
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Head of government and head of state, is executive, still shares w legislature tho
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Exec-executes laws and enforces them
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Responsible for daily administration of the state
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Head of govt
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Head of state
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Enforces/vetos laws, commander in chief of the military
More of a figure head who represents the culture of the state
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Fixed terms of office specifically defined in the constitution
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Elections held every time a term ends & cant be forced to resign except for in
extreme circumstances
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Complete authority to choose their governments
Parliamentary system
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Executive authority resides in legislature
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HOS and HOG two positions
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Still has popular vote
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Vote for district rep not person who will be head of government
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Power is fused between the executive and legislative branches since the exec
power comes for the legislature
SMD electoral system
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Single Member District:
 Also called a plurality
 Majority wins (first past-the-post)
 Both parties move to the center to get the votes
 US, Canada, India
 Advantage is knowing who will come into office
 Negative
 Minority groups are ignored
PR electoral system
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Proportional Representation:
 People vote for the party they want
 More than one seat is open in the election
 Electoral threshold: Percentage of votes needed to gain a seat
 Encourages smaller parties to come into the election (positive/negative)
 Negative
 Could lead to a hung parliament
 Allows for parliament members to switch parties so they get on
the ticket
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Abdala Bucaram
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Negative example of a presidential system not working as it should
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Ecuador President who became crazy for power and
 Presidential system can make it hard it to get rid of a President (must
impeach)
Example of anti-presidential system
Removed from office after being deemed as unfit to rule the country
o
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Voters don’t always know the representative they are voting for
Olusegun Obasanjo
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Presidential system working as it should, he is a good example because in a
presidential system a candidate needs to court the popular vote and needs to
be elected by a majority of everybody. It encourages candidates to think of the
good of the nation as a whole and be moderate and be conciliatory so
theoretically extremists wont rise to power.
Primordialist ethnic identity: a subset of categories in which descent based attributes are necessary
for membership
 attributes: language, religion, the way you look, blood relations, property/territory,
history, traditions
 descent based: hereditary language, physical attributes, nationality
 nominal ethnic identities: individuals descent based attributes qualify for membership
 ethnic identity based, natural phenomenal, (not biological/DNA), increase tendency to
identify self as part of group, immediate kinship group is family
 tendency toward ethnic identity because born into a family with certain attributes and
ethnicity
 ethnic identity primary identity
 ethnic identities do not change
 first group you are part of influences your identity
Instrumentalist
 ethnic identity is not necessarily what is most salient, but what is most useful to a
person
 individual picks and chooses parts of their nominal ethnic identity, which consists of all
the descent based attributes that make a person eligible to claim an identity, to form
their activated identity
 variant of this perspective explains that one’s activated identity is not only determined
by the perceived benefits, but what political elites determine to be important
 A study conducted over the span of fifty years, more Puerto Ricans identified as White
instead of Negro, more Brazilians identified as Mixed instead of White, and the
population of Native Americans rose due to an increase in self-identification (Dominguez
1997). in just fifty years, the demographics seemed to have changed so much because
there were incentives that motivated people to activate certain parts of their identity
over others
Constructivist
Yoweri Museveni
 Uganda
 president of Uganda- 1986 intense ethnic conflict began. he’s from south west and
there is a ethnic divide with the north and the south. His ethnic group is Banyankole. He
speaks Bantu, people in the north speak Luo. CONTEXT- talk about which context you
learned about him. uganda is an instance of the US calling it a democracy. talk about
the regime type or the resource curse.
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 ’86, intense ethnic conflict after it, from Mbarara? in SW
 *ethnic divide btw N and S
 ethically Banyankole
 south speaks bantu
 north speaks Lou
 **ethnic conflict ---what happen??
 This is an example of how diff ____
 called concentration camps
 *does get thins econs where from
 Uganda tech preg? republic
 Ex) of how democratic regime in but not ?ork
 *bc neoliberal, etc connection to food
nominal vs. activated ethnic identity
 Nominal identity is the ethnic identity that an individual is born with, and stems
from their genetic code and physical characteristics that determine which
ethnicity they are a part of (descent based characteristics)
 Activated ethnic identity is the identity that an individual may choose to
associate with, and does not have to be scientifically related to the individual in
any way.
 For example, if I was from India, my nominal identity would be Indian, because
my ancestors are from India and I share the same genetic traits and physical
characteristics as other Indians. However, if I had grown up in the US, my
activated ethnic identity could be American, because I grew up in the United
States and so largely identify with many aspects of western culture.
race vs. ethnicity
 The idea of race is based off of the outward characteristics in a human population that
are believed to be distinct in some way from other humans based on perceived or
imagined physical differences.
 Ethnicity on the other hand, is self-identified and stems from claiming or feeling a
connection of culture, religion, language and rootness to a place, traditions or descent
based attributes that are shared by a certain population with a common shared history.
social identity theory
 This theory states that it is important to one’s self identity to be a part of social
groups.
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In 1974, Taifel & Turner ran an experiment that divided individuals into groups
in order to test whether or not it was important to the individuals to be
affiliated to a group. During the course of the experiment, each group had to
allocate points either to themselves or to the other group - and both groups
kept more and gave fewer points.
This demonstrates how human nature is more focused on competitiveness than
fairness because the assigned groups led to the people perceiving similarities
between themselves and the people on their own team - and so they worked in
pursuit of success for their team.
Adam Smith
 Adam Smith was an 18th century classical economist who believed that social welfare is
largely determined by individuals pursuing individual welfare - or when private and
public interests work hand in hand. He proposed the idea of the invisible hand - that
would keep the economy stable and act as a self-regulating market mechanism.
o Basically - leave the economy alone and everything will just naturally fall into
place.
 The market naturally ebbs and flows, and only a watchman role by the state can be
justified (getting rid of restrictions on the market, protecting human rights violations,
etc.).
 Adam Smith also developed the Theory of Moral Sentiments - which states that we look
for things that will earn us respect and work in the market for self-interest, but because
we want to be honorable, we act within societies boundaries of social norms.
Keynesian Revolution
 Was spurred to happen by the 1929 stock market crash
 Many believed that there was a problem of supply without demand, and that
the government needed to play at least some sort of role in the economy in
order to protect those hurt by the recession and provide jobs and other
opportunities to stimulate the market.
 Some examples of this are FDRs New Deal projects, where he and his
government created work programs specifically for the purpose of creating jobs
for many people.
Modernization Theory
 Early: No country is necessarily undeveloped, all countries are just in different stages of
development and will eventually develop on an economic and political front to
resemble the West. Even though many of these countries seem to be struggling now,
the only difference between the Westernized world and these so called 3rd world
countries is that they are in different stages of development and will eventually catch up
to the rest of the world - with the same western economic and political infrastructure.
This is a natural and inevitable process, and so requires no action on the part of the
government.
 Nonlinear: The non-linear path suggests that although all countries are developing and
will modernize, they will not necessarily end up with a western model of economic and
political infrastructure. The end result for many developing countries will not necessarily
be democratic and thus external governments can play a role here by providing/not
providing capital, investments and loans to developing countries and pushing them
towards or away from democratization.
World Systems Theory (1st gen)
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gunther frank- the idea that the global economic system- set up in a way that there are
only 2 types of countries. core and periphery because of colonialism. the purpose for
these was always extraction to benefit the core the colonisers. and even today. they
function to benefit the core. Can never develop because the growth will benefit the
core. Can’t do anything to help but cut off all contact. Draw the diagram. Autotarchy.
Triple Alliance (2nd gen)
 Peter evans Introduced the idea of semi-periphery. some countries can achieve a
measure of economic growth through (one way) a mutually beneficial triple alliance.
The diagram- remember? -explain and then Draw the diagram. you can go into detail of
why this is mutually beneficial- like local entrepreneurs get capitol. BRAZIL- peter evans
Peter Evans
informal vs. formal sector
 The formal economy:
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has an organised system of employment with clear written rules of recruitment,
agreement and job responsibilities.
has a standardised relationship between the employer and the employee is
maintained through a formal contract.
the employee is expected to work for fixed hours and receives fixed salaries in
addition to incentives and perks. He works under a decent work environment and is
entitled to benefits such as leave, savings, loans etc. He has an organised
association or union where his official grievances are addressed. Besides, he is
covered under social protection benefits such as life insurance, health insurance,
pension, gratuity etc.
People working in civil service, public sector units, government service, defence,
multi-national/national/private companies, schools, colleges, research institutes,
management organizations, banks etc.…all belong to the Formal Sector
The informal economy:
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does not have any written rules or agreements.
it exists merely on verbal understanding.
it does not have fixed wages or fixed hours of work and mostly relies on daily
earnings.
in most cases, the work atmosphere is congested and unhygienic.
the workers in this type of economy usually fail to come together and address their
problems through an association or a group. They have poor awareness levels
regarding social protection schemes, are unable to make savings and do not see the
necessity of insuring themselves
o People working as small farmers, street vendors, hawkers, small traders, microentrepreneurs, home-based workers, cobblers, rag-pickers, porters, labourers,
artisans, etc…all belong to the Informal Sector
Liberal Welfare State
Corporatist Welfare State
Social Democratic Welfare State
fiscal policy vs. monetary policy
 Fiscal policy
o Gov increase rev, or decrease spending – esp when have losts of deb
 *IMF encourage when agree to bail out country
 want them to get fiscal policy in order
o Monetary – central bank, raise/lower rates
austerity vs. stimulus
o Austerity – cut back on spending, amount money ??
o Stimulus – put money back into econ
o [see reading, austerity in Greece]
asset price bubble
o asset = real estate, stocks
o assets mainly real estate- look at thailand. what it is? how does it come about? and
what are it’s affects? use the thailand example! what- when the true value of the asset
is not represented in the price of the assets. When the price is far higher than the true
value of the assets. When we have lack of regulation, lack of transparency and lax
lending policy. talk about US. Thailand. Brazil.
o lec notes around Asian financial crisis and Thailand
o ex) Thailand, bot? Pegged to US currency
o *when price asset far higher than TRUE value of asset
o *get here : when lack reg, lack lending policy, etc
o ex) U.S.. Brazil, Russia
International Monetary Fund vs. World Bank
Washington Consensus
o Way that use fiscal policy to achieve econ growth?
o Grow their way out of trouble
o Involves fiscal polcy
o Use fiscal econ policy of austerity?
o **idea popular in 80s, way to achieve econ growth in develop growth = SHOCK THERAPY
Polanyi
fiscal policy vs. monetary policy
 Monetary- central bank raises and lowers interest rates.
 Fiscal (she wants more explanation) Govt. increasing revenue or decreasing spending
because of IMF- international monetary fund. “that” is essentially the washington
consensus -is the way to achieve this in developing countries is neoliberal shock therapy
Robert Dahl
 Procedural minimal (added 3 civ liberties to minimal) def doesn’t exist
 Came up with 7 attributes
o Officials have to be elected
o Free and fair elections
o Inclusive suffrage
o Everyone has right to run for office
o Access to info
o Associational autonomy
o Freedom of expression (free speech/press)]
o Thinks no country have ever achieved real democracy
o
Karl & Shmiter added expanded procedural minimal added 2 more
Delegative Democracy
 Odonell 1983
 Vertical accountrability but minimal horiz
 Ppl directly elect head of state but judicial and leg don’t have checks on exec so exec has
lots of power
 Venezuela hugo chavez 1998
Maximalist definition of democracy 2005
 Free fair elec, civ libs, effective pwr to govern, checks on exec pwr, & social equality (soc
eq only thing added, added by smith)
diminished subtypes
 Add adjective to word democracy to describe certain quality regime lacks in order to be
a full democracy
 (male dem, illiberal dem etc)
Pacted Transition
Imposed Transition
Transition by Collapse
Islam vs. Islamism
Democratic vs. Totalitarian Regimes
Electoral Authoritarian Regimes
Theocracy
 A form of government in which God (or a deity) is recognized as the king or immediate
ruler, and his laws are taken as the statute-book of the kingdom, these laws being
usually administered by a priestly order as his ministers and agents; hence (loosely) a
system of government by a sacerdotal order, claiming a divine commission; also, a state
so governed
 Can use iran as example
 Type of authoritarian regime
China's "century of humiliation"
 1830 to 1940- between this century many humiliating things happened to china mention a few and go into detail of one. find a article to cite if bringing in new stuff.
used to self-sufficient, europeans brought in opimum, when china closed ports- war and
britain insisted they keep it open. sino-japanese war. it resulted in dividing chine to
spheres of foreign influence. Look at china in case studies-look at lecture.
Mao Tse Tung
Deng Xiao Ping
"shock therapy"
 sudden liberalization of economy
Mancur Olson
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intro of selective incentives
book logic of collective action
argues that larger a political movement is the more likely it is to suffer from free rider
problem
"democratic paradox"
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classic mobilization theory
resource mobilization theory
new social movements theory
political participation
ICTs
civic skills
favela
Dilma Roussef
 current president of brazil, first woman to be pres, 9-12% approval rates, shes displacing
ppl, introduced new program to improve favelas but only did to high class favelas, so
some favelas are being displaced completely and having to move to different favelas,
bus prices were final straw ppl protest
 places with low visibility & high real estate values are being displaced this is bad
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resource curse
political representation
 making citizens voice present in political arena
 today representation not limited to representatives
o today other entities present in arena
programmatic challenge for labor-based parties
 cant make promises about raising min wage etc bc so many other competing intersts in
politics
 cant provide same support that they used to because theyre less able to follow through
coalitional challenge for labor-based parties
 a lot harder for ppl to organize and attract support because they have different interests
and they may not have physical proximity
 before was all workets to form union from x type of work but now less harmony of
interests and less proximity and harder for them to organize
 (uber drivers one might want full w ben one might not)
Pirate Party (Sweden)
 right to privacy and transparency in political affairs
 sharing
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