Theory vs. hypothesis o Hypothesis-an idea you can test, its often phrased in the form of a question, we come up with hypothesis by observing the world around us, use what you already know and that sparks a question. You put that wondering in a way that you can test it, test-know whether or not your idea is correct. Guess about why son couldn’t sleep is phrased in a way that you can test and confirm or disconfirm (NOT PROVE) the hypothesis o Theory- look at all ind variables, form hypotheses, test hyps over and over, then develop theory about outcome we are interested in, change ind variable see if it results in change in dependent variables, revisable and adjustable o A scientific theory summarizes substantiated hypotheses Nomothetic vs. idiographic o Two different views about the goal should be when searching for knowledge o Nomothetic- search for theories that explain dependent variables that can explain outcomes across as many different outcomes as possible Ex democratic stability: nomothetic- look at many countries and see what independent variables they have in common (look at US, Germany, India, Japan, Nigeria, as many cases as possible) o Idiographic- from this perspective, the goal in searching for knowledge should be to explain dynamics in a particular area which may be a small subset of cases or even just one case, to understand outcomes from the perspective of a particular area or case Try and find that theory(collection of ind variables) that explains democratic stability in as many different places as possible Dem stab- still clearly defining dependent variable which is the outcome youre interested in which is democratic stability and also clearly identifying theh independent variables that you think matter but instead of looking at all the countries you can youre going to look at a particular area to really understand dynamics within that context so then from idiographic perspective regional and cultural differences may be so great so its just not possible to come up with a theory that covers so many cases so the best you can do is come up with a theory for a particular region or just that country Correlation vs. causation o Correlation- as one variable changes another variable changes in a predictable way, there is no causation. o In correlation as variable x changes variable y changes in a predictable way. In causation variable x changing is the reason for the change in variable y. variable y is dependent variable x is independent o As the number of bars increases the number of churches increase, theyre both changing a predictable way but the change in the number of bars is not the reason for the change in the number of churches. o For causation, bring in fundamental problem of causal inference. In social sciences we can never say with absolute 100% certainty that one variable causes another variable because we cannot hold everything else constant and see how the variable changes so we can never know with absolute certainty that variable x is the reason for the change in variable y. Independent vs. dependent variables o Independent-a variable that is hypothesized to have an effect on another variable o Dependent- the variable that is hypothesized to be affected o Social sciences change independent variable and note the change in the dependent variables Nietzsche o Russell o People are motivated by power and glory, and power is a bad thing. Elites (the strong) should hold power, but they should be constrained and channeled with it. He believes in a representative democracy. Constant o Believes that the desire for power motivates people, and that power is a good thing to try to achieve. He believes that those with the master moralities and the most will to be in power are the most capable of holding it. He believes in rule by few, so an oligarchy, aristocracy, totalitarian gov or authoritarian gov, will be best, not a democracy. People are motivated by a desire for liberty and freedom. The people in power should be those who have a desire to defend public liberties because they are motivated by liberty not power. Believes in a representative democracy with checks and balances and a republican government. Weber’s three types of authority o o o o thing that makes these three types of authority legitimate is that people agree to follow these leaders charismatic rational/legal and traditional pick example Traditional- monarchy, power passed down, theocracies all ecamples Static because the people being govered agree to follow because thet is the way its always been, personal because its being passed down irrational because its not logically efficient Charismatic Dynamic because its based on the will of one person o o Personal because the person coming into power is there because of peoples support and faith in him Irrational because its completely dependent on the characteristics of the individual legal/rational-bureacracy or democracy, people believe that the rules which determine power are fair and best rules people believe in the regime and the rules for electing the leader are the fairest and best possible Weber thinks the best form is the democracy/bureaucracy because rules can persist outside of the individual in power, promotes meritocracy and stability and efficiency. People can be replaced and its okay Anomie o Durkheim, wanting to be a part of a community o Anomie is feeling an individual has when they do not belong & feel excluded from a group (breakdown of social bonds) o Therefore for durkhiem an ideal political element would strengthen (use ex from suicide reading) Failed state o Characteristics of a state o Sovereignty over a terriroty Sov-ability to exercise complete control over territory within borders Monopoly on legitimate use of violence within borders Established bureaucracy External legitimacy Govern economic activity A failed state would be a state lacking in these characteristics in a way that dramatically impedes state capability Ex: when military can take from government funds to fund own projects without approval Govt cant afford to pay own employees Govt has to contract private individuals for security Or when has hellla refugees (ex Somalia DROC) Regime o Rules that govern a state Often rules regarding individual freedom and collective equality, where power lies, and use of that power o Determines who has access to political power and how those with power interact with those who aren’t in power o Regimes are generally more permanent than the government itself but less permanent than the state o can change by dramatic social movememnts such as a revolution Government o The specific people in power o In charge of running state o All hold particular ideas regarding freedom and equality and attempt to use state to realize these ideas o Governments come and go, not one govt is seen as necessary to health of state even in auth regimes usually Nation o Group of people who share a common cultural and political identity o Cultural identity- o Political- shared political aspirations that include some degree of territorial self determination o Self determination- Aspirations for self govt and sovereignty Sov-ability to exercise complete control over territory within borders Nation-state o Nation that also has own state o State- collection of institutions that exercise control over a particular territory Characteristics of a state Sovereignty over a terriroty Sov-ability to exercise complete control over territory within borders Monopoly on legitimate use of violence within borders Established bureaucracy External legitimacy Govern economic activity Division of labor o People are motivated my material security and material gain so in order to ensure that they transform their environment, in doing so we get the division of labor, in creating DOL we get two social classes, and in those two social classes, the bourgeoisie holds all the economic power which is what gives them intellectual and political power=EXPLOITATION Fundamental problem of causal inference o In the social sciences we cannot be completely sure that causation is occurring o Define correlation v causation o Cant create an environment where you keep everything else constant and take the variable interested in and have one country where everything is exactly the same except for the ind variable and expect everything else to be constant. No matter what method we use we don’t escape it by use quantitative statistical methodology. We can come close with lots of diff methods ex. Ethnographic case focused research or quantitative research but none allow us to escape this fund problem of causal inference. Interest group o o o o o o Labor is divided into those who do the producing and those who own the means of production Organize, channel, and defend the interest of a certain constituency. Different from parties because they only want to have political influence Formally organized association of individuals that attempt to influence government decisions as to benefit themselves or their larger causes Don’t field candidates for office but they mobilize people, lobby, and act as think tanks AARP- bring all interests together, older people have different interests on climate change, gun control etc but AARP will try and bring them all together Difference between interest groups and political parties is that interest groups always have their specific constituencies in mind but political parties have the good of all of the nation in mind Political party o A group of people who unite to attempt to win or maintain control over the government Structure the popular vote Running candidates Act as interest intermediaries Aggregate interest platforms Mobilize support Speeches and campaign in states, door to door Provide information shortcuts: Vote along party lines Represent marginalized groups Play a role in controlling violence by giving minorities to have an outlet to express their needs Interest intermediation o Aggregation: ex AARP, bring all interests together, older people have different interests on climate change, gun control etc but AARP will try and bring them all together the combination of political demands of individuals and groups into policy programs o An action, not a group, it’s something that groups do. Done by a variety of social groups including political parties, social movements, and interest groups. Aggregate and articulate interest. Republicans being in NRA people, christians, pro-life Democrats being pro-choice & gun control Articulation-developing a platform, coalescing all of those ideas into specific policy prescriptions, bringing interests to politicians, elected officials, those in authority. Developing a platform, coalescing all of those different ideas into specific policy prescriptions that they could advocate for in the political arena Sartorie-pol parties ideal intermediators because they have the good of the nation as a whole in mind whereas interest groups focus on just the interests of their members o o Duverger's Law o In democracy with single member districts with plurality (define smd &plur) there will be a bipartisan system where two parties tend to resemble each other in governing o Not rational for third candidate to enter o Say “if you have an electoral system where there is only one seat up for grabs in a district and the way you determine who gets that seat is a simple majority then rational voters will not encourage third fourth fith parties to enter the race because it would split the vote and ensure the other ideological candidate would win because there is only one seat up for grabs and the person who gets the simple majoriy will win” o Ideologically centered o 2000 election –green party split democrat ticket Centralism o One national government holds power & has sub territories (states districtis etc) that don’t have sovereignty o Pro centralist arguments 1. Spillover effects (environment) 2. Some moral issues aren’t to be compromised on 3. Subterritories could put things that re unconstitutional into law in their territories 4. Local govts vary widely economically & states vary greatly in resources so there is an unequal distribution of resources in federalism 5. Federalism might set up counterproductive and ineffective govts Federalism o Has entities with some degree of sovereignty in union o Pro fed 1. If subterritories all had some degree of sovereignty befor union formed it is easier to govern if you let subt. Keep some of that power subterritories know local conditions better, especially if state is large and diverse ex. Texas has less strict gun laws than cali so its not so heated 4. Can provide small laboratories for public policy, so the natl govt can see how its working before making it a state policy 5. Ppl can vote with their feet, they can stay in same country but move states if they like the policy of some state better "hung" parliament o Can be more effective at getting things done because natl govermnet cant adjust well to local conditions 3. Diffuses policy conflicts respects the subt.’s sovereignty When three or more parties are elected to the parliament, so there is no prevalent or obvious majority in the legislature. A Prime Minister cannot be elected by a simple majority vote in this case. For example, in the 2010 UK elections a coalition was formed between the Liberal and Tory party. Might not be as legitimate because two factions in Parliament came together and gave power to a party that should not have power Presidential system o Head of government and head of state, is executive, still shares w legislature tho Exec-executes laws and enforces them Responsible for daily administration of the state Head of govt Head of state Enforces/vetos laws, commander in chief of the military More of a figure head who represents the culture of the state o Fixed terms of office specifically defined in the constitution o Elections held every time a term ends & cant be forced to resign except for in extreme circumstances o Complete authority to choose their governments Parliamentary system o Executive authority resides in legislature o HOS and HOG two positions o Still has popular vote o Vote for district rep not person who will be head of government o Power is fused between the executive and legislative branches since the exec power comes for the legislature SMD electoral system o Single Member District: Also called a plurality Majority wins (first past-the-post) Both parties move to the center to get the votes US, Canada, India Advantage is knowing who will come into office Negative Minority groups are ignored PR electoral system o Proportional Representation: People vote for the party they want More than one seat is open in the election Electoral threshold: Percentage of votes needed to gain a seat Encourages smaller parties to come into the election (positive/negative) Negative Could lead to a hung parliament Allows for parliament members to switch parties so they get on the ticket Abdala Bucaram o Negative example of a presidential system not working as it should o Ecuador President who became crazy for power and Presidential system can make it hard it to get rid of a President (must impeach) Example of anti-presidential system Removed from office after being deemed as unfit to rule the country o o Voters don’t always know the representative they are voting for Olusegun Obasanjo o Presidential system working as it should, he is a good example because in a presidential system a candidate needs to court the popular vote and needs to be elected by a majority of everybody. It encourages candidates to think of the good of the nation as a whole and be moderate and be conciliatory so theoretically extremists wont rise to power. Primordialist ethnic identity: a subset of categories in which descent based attributes are necessary for membership attributes: language, religion, the way you look, blood relations, property/territory, history, traditions descent based: hereditary language, physical attributes, nationality nominal ethnic identities: individuals descent based attributes qualify for membership ethnic identity based, natural phenomenal, (not biological/DNA), increase tendency to identify self as part of group, immediate kinship group is family tendency toward ethnic identity because born into a family with certain attributes and ethnicity ethnic identity primary identity ethnic identities do not change first group you are part of influences your identity Instrumentalist ethnic identity is not necessarily what is most salient, but what is most useful to a person individual picks and chooses parts of their nominal ethnic identity, which consists of all the descent based attributes that make a person eligible to claim an identity, to form their activated identity variant of this perspective explains that one’s activated identity is not only determined by the perceived benefits, but what political elites determine to be important A study conducted over the span of fifty years, more Puerto Ricans identified as White instead of Negro, more Brazilians identified as Mixed instead of White, and the population of Native Americans rose due to an increase in self-identification (Dominguez 1997). in just fifty years, the demographics seemed to have changed so much because there were incentives that motivated people to activate certain parts of their identity over others Constructivist Yoweri Museveni Uganda president of Uganda- 1986 intense ethnic conflict began. he’s from south west and there is a ethnic divide with the north and the south. His ethnic group is Banyankole. He speaks Bantu, people in the north speak Luo. CONTEXT- talk about which context you learned about him. uganda is an instance of the US calling it a democracy. talk about the regime type or the resource curse. ’86, intense ethnic conflict after it, from Mbarara? in SW *ethnic divide btw N and S ethically Banyankole south speaks bantu north speaks Lou **ethnic conflict ---what happen?? This is an example of how diff ____ called concentration camps *does get thins econs where from Uganda tech preg? republic Ex) of how democratic regime in but not ?ork *bc neoliberal, etc connection to food nominal vs. activated ethnic identity Nominal identity is the ethnic identity that an individual is born with, and stems from their genetic code and physical characteristics that determine which ethnicity they are a part of (descent based characteristics) Activated ethnic identity is the identity that an individual may choose to associate with, and does not have to be scientifically related to the individual in any way. For example, if I was from India, my nominal identity would be Indian, because my ancestors are from India and I share the same genetic traits and physical characteristics as other Indians. However, if I had grown up in the US, my activated ethnic identity could be American, because I grew up in the United States and so largely identify with many aspects of western culture. race vs. ethnicity The idea of race is based off of the outward characteristics in a human population that are believed to be distinct in some way from other humans based on perceived or imagined physical differences. Ethnicity on the other hand, is self-identified and stems from claiming or feeling a connection of culture, religion, language and rootness to a place, traditions or descent based attributes that are shared by a certain population with a common shared history. social identity theory This theory states that it is important to one’s self identity to be a part of social groups. In 1974, Taifel & Turner ran an experiment that divided individuals into groups in order to test whether or not it was important to the individuals to be affiliated to a group. During the course of the experiment, each group had to allocate points either to themselves or to the other group - and both groups kept more and gave fewer points. This demonstrates how human nature is more focused on competitiveness than fairness because the assigned groups led to the people perceiving similarities between themselves and the people on their own team - and so they worked in pursuit of success for their team. Adam Smith Adam Smith was an 18th century classical economist who believed that social welfare is largely determined by individuals pursuing individual welfare - or when private and public interests work hand in hand. He proposed the idea of the invisible hand - that would keep the economy stable and act as a self-regulating market mechanism. o Basically - leave the economy alone and everything will just naturally fall into place. The market naturally ebbs and flows, and only a watchman role by the state can be justified (getting rid of restrictions on the market, protecting human rights violations, etc.). Adam Smith also developed the Theory of Moral Sentiments - which states that we look for things that will earn us respect and work in the market for self-interest, but because we want to be honorable, we act within societies boundaries of social norms. Keynesian Revolution Was spurred to happen by the 1929 stock market crash Many believed that there was a problem of supply without demand, and that the government needed to play at least some sort of role in the economy in order to protect those hurt by the recession and provide jobs and other opportunities to stimulate the market. Some examples of this are FDRs New Deal projects, where he and his government created work programs specifically for the purpose of creating jobs for many people. Modernization Theory Early: No country is necessarily undeveloped, all countries are just in different stages of development and will eventually develop on an economic and political front to resemble the West. Even though many of these countries seem to be struggling now, the only difference between the Westernized world and these so called 3rd world countries is that they are in different stages of development and will eventually catch up to the rest of the world - with the same western economic and political infrastructure. This is a natural and inevitable process, and so requires no action on the part of the government. Nonlinear: The non-linear path suggests that although all countries are developing and will modernize, they will not necessarily end up with a western model of economic and political infrastructure. The end result for many developing countries will not necessarily be democratic and thus external governments can play a role here by providing/not providing capital, investments and loans to developing countries and pushing them towards or away from democratization. World Systems Theory (1st gen) gunther frank- the idea that the global economic system- set up in a way that there are only 2 types of countries. core and periphery because of colonialism. the purpose for these was always extraction to benefit the core the colonisers. and even today. they function to benefit the core. Can never develop because the growth will benefit the core. Can’t do anything to help but cut off all contact. Draw the diagram. Autotarchy. Triple Alliance (2nd gen) Peter evans Introduced the idea of semi-periphery. some countries can achieve a measure of economic growth through (one way) a mutually beneficial triple alliance. The diagram- remember? -explain and then Draw the diagram. you can go into detail of why this is mutually beneficial- like local entrepreneurs get capitol. BRAZIL- peter evans Peter Evans informal vs. formal sector The formal economy: has an organised system of employment with clear written rules of recruitment, agreement and job responsibilities. has a standardised relationship between the employer and the employee is maintained through a formal contract. the employee is expected to work for fixed hours and receives fixed salaries in addition to incentives and perks. He works under a decent work environment and is entitled to benefits such as leave, savings, loans etc. He has an organised association or union where his official grievances are addressed. Besides, he is covered under social protection benefits such as life insurance, health insurance, pension, gratuity etc. People working in civil service, public sector units, government service, defence, multi-national/national/private companies, schools, colleges, research institutes, management organizations, banks etc.…all belong to the Formal Sector The informal economy: does not have any written rules or agreements. it exists merely on verbal understanding. it does not have fixed wages or fixed hours of work and mostly relies on daily earnings. in most cases, the work atmosphere is congested and unhygienic. the workers in this type of economy usually fail to come together and address their problems through an association or a group. They have poor awareness levels regarding social protection schemes, are unable to make savings and do not see the necessity of insuring themselves o People working as small farmers, street vendors, hawkers, small traders, microentrepreneurs, home-based workers, cobblers, rag-pickers, porters, labourers, artisans, etc…all belong to the Informal Sector Liberal Welfare State Corporatist Welfare State Social Democratic Welfare State fiscal policy vs. monetary policy Fiscal policy o Gov increase rev, or decrease spending – esp when have losts of deb *IMF encourage when agree to bail out country want them to get fiscal policy in order o Monetary – central bank, raise/lower rates austerity vs. stimulus o Austerity – cut back on spending, amount money ?? o Stimulus – put money back into econ o [see reading, austerity in Greece] asset price bubble o asset = real estate, stocks o assets mainly real estate- look at thailand. what it is? how does it come about? and what are it’s affects? use the thailand example! what- when the true value of the asset is not represented in the price of the assets. When the price is far higher than the true value of the assets. When we have lack of regulation, lack of transparency and lax lending policy. talk about US. Thailand. Brazil. o lec notes around Asian financial crisis and Thailand o ex) Thailand, bot? Pegged to US currency o *when price asset far higher than TRUE value of asset o *get here : when lack reg, lack lending policy, etc o ex) U.S.. Brazil, Russia International Monetary Fund vs. World Bank Washington Consensus o Way that use fiscal policy to achieve econ growth? o Grow their way out of trouble o Involves fiscal polcy o Use fiscal econ policy of austerity? o **idea popular in 80s, way to achieve econ growth in develop growth = SHOCK THERAPY Polanyi fiscal policy vs. monetary policy Monetary- central bank raises and lowers interest rates. Fiscal (she wants more explanation) Govt. increasing revenue or decreasing spending because of IMF- international monetary fund. “that” is essentially the washington consensus -is the way to achieve this in developing countries is neoliberal shock therapy Robert Dahl Procedural minimal (added 3 civ liberties to minimal) def doesn’t exist Came up with 7 attributes o Officials have to be elected o Free and fair elections o Inclusive suffrage o Everyone has right to run for office o Access to info o Associational autonomy o Freedom of expression (free speech/press)] o Thinks no country have ever achieved real democracy o Karl & Shmiter added expanded procedural minimal added 2 more Delegative Democracy Odonell 1983 Vertical accountrability but minimal horiz Ppl directly elect head of state but judicial and leg don’t have checks on exec so exec has lots of power Venezuela hugo chavez 1998 Maximalist definition of democracy 2005 Free fair elec, civ libs, effective pwr to govern, checks on exec pwr, & social equality (soc eq only thing added, added by smith) diminished subtypes Add adjective to word democracy to describe certain quality regime lacks in order to be a full democracy (male dem, illiberal dem etc) Pacted Transition Imposed Transition Transition by Collapse Islam vs. Islamism Democratic vs. Totalitarian Regimes Electoral Authoritarian Regimes Theocracy A form of government in which God (or a deity) is recognized as the king or immediate ruler, and his laws are taken as the statute-book of the kingdom, these laws being usually administered by a priestly order as his ministers and agents; hence (loosely) a system of government by a sacerdotal order, claiming a divine commission; also, a state so governed Can use iran as example Type of authoritarian regime China's "century of humiliation" 1830 to 1940- between this century many humiliating things happened to china mention a few and go into detail of one. find a article to cite if bringing in new stuff. used to self-sufficient, europeans brought in opimum, when china closed ports- war and britain insisted they keep it open. sino-japanese war. it resulted in dividing chine to spheres of foreign influence. Look at china in case studies-look at lecture. Mao Tse Tung Deng Xiao Ping "shock therapy" sudden liberalization of economy Mancur Olson intro of selective incentives book logic of collective action argues that larger a political movement is the more likely it is to suffer from free rider problem "democratic paradox" classic mobilization theory resource mobilization theory new social movements theory political participation ICTs civic skills favela Dilma Roussef current president of brazil, first woman to be pres, 9-12% approval rates, shes displacing ppl, introduced new program to improve favelas but only did to high class favelas, so some favelas are being displaced completely and having to move to different favelas, bus prices were final straw ppl protest places with low visibility & high real estate values are being displaced this is bad resource curse political representation making citizens voice present in political arena today representation not limited to representatives o today other entities present in arena programmatic challenge for labor-based parties cant make promises about raising min wage etc bc so many other competing intersts in politics cant provide same support that they used to because theyre less able to follow through coalitional challenge for labor-based parties a lot harder for ppl to organize and attract support because they have different interests and they may not have physical proximity before was all workets to form union from x type of work but now less harmony of interests and less proximity and harder for them to organize (uber drivers one might want full w ben one might not) Pirate Party (Sweden) right to privacy and transparency in political affairs sharing